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Ivan on Tech won't touch $MSTR. Why? He doesn't understand Saylor's "Bitcoin yield" concept. Bitcoin has no yield -ETH does, Solana does, but not Bitcoin. The rocket diagrams, the complex debt instruments - it all makes him uneasy. He'd rather just stack BTC. Ivan is a simple man

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Ivan on Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania

491,487 subscribers

18,024 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

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36,835 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

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220,729 просмотров • 1 год назад

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Leading Bitcoin thinker Bob Bodily, PhD 👋 | #BTC #ETH #ICP 🧙🏽‍♂️ kicked off the Bitcoin Economy Conference with a short but dense keynote summarizing the key developments in Bitcoin scaling over the past few years. Ordinals, BRC20s, opcodes, BitVM2, L2s, sidechains - this is the must-listen overview that makes it all make sense 🤝 Also available on YouTube:

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12,926 просмотров • 1 год назад

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20:52

🔥I BOUGHT MORE MSTR BECAUSE THE MATH IS INSANE!🔥 In this video, I expose why Strategy (MSTR) is the most undervalued Bitcoin superweapon in the market. And why Wall Street still thinks it’s a Bitcoin ETF with a gambling problem. While your financial advisor is feeding your retirement into a 60/40 woodchipper, Saylor is out here issuing STRC like it’s methadone for bond managers. 11% yield, monthly payouts, and they don’t even realize they’re buying him more Bitcoin on your behalf. STRC is the fixed-income trojan horse. MSTR is the orange citadel it funds. I break down the STRC flywheel, the 5% mNAV premium arbitrage, the recursive BTC-per-share compounding mechanism, and how MSTR can grow your Bitcoin stack by 17%, 34%, or even 51% this year alone... WITHOUT A SINGLE DOLLAR OF NEW DILUTION! THIS IS THE ORANGE SINGULARITY:

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31,581 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

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Matt Cole

99,886 просмотров • 5 дней назад

🚨 BREAKING BITCOIN JUST SUFFERED THE FIRST QUANTUM ATTACK! A HACKER HAS CRACKED A 15-BIT PRIVATE KEY USING PUBLICLY AVAILABLE QUANTUM COMPUTER. MORE THAN 30% OF ALL BITCOIN SUPPLY (6.9M BTC) IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE ATTACK. THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR CRYPTO...
0:21

🚨 BREAKING BITCOIN JUST SUFFERED THE FIRST QUANTUM ATTACK! A HACKER HAS CRACKED A 15-BIT PRIVATE KEY USING PUBLICLY AVAILABLE QUANTUM COMPUTER. MORE THAN 30% OF ALL BITCOIN SUPPLY (6.9M BTC) IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE ATTACK. THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR CRYPTO...

0xNobler

1,378,898 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🔥BITCOIN TO $1 MILLION - EASILY! HOW BITCOIN EATS THE ENTIRE $40 TRILLION INSURANCE INDUSTRY🔥 You think this is clickbait? It isn't. Just look at the math. The entire insurance industry is a $40 TRILLION illusion built on melting collateral, actuarial voodoo, and government-blessed accounting fraud. For a century, insurers have called negative-yield bonds “safe assets” while quietly bleeding to death in slow motion. Bitcoin changes that... VIOLENTLY. In this video, I break down how Bitcoin turns solvency into a self-reinforcing loop, how Strategy (MSTR) is already building the first Bitcoinized insurance prototype, and why the second the $34 trillion insurance complex touches BTC... ...the price must reprice into the stratosphere.
28:27

🔥BITCOIN TO $1 MILLION - EASILY! HOW BITCOIN EATS THE ENTIRE $40 TRILLION INSURANCE INDUSTRY🔥 You think this is clickbait? It isn't. Just look at the math. The entire insurance industry is a $40 TRILLION illusion built on melting collateral, actuarial voodoo, and government-blessed accounting fraud. For a century, insurers have called negative-yield bonds “safe assets” while quietly bleeding to death in slow motion. Bitcoin changes that... VIOLENTLY. In this video, I break down how Bitcoin turns solvency into a self-reinforcing loop, how Strategy (MSTR) is already building the first Bitcoinized insurance prototype, and why the second the $34 trillion insurance complex touches BTC... ...the price must reprice into the stratosphere.

Adam Livingston

16,183 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

🔥STRK: THE BEST VALUE IN BITCOIN - GET PAID TO WAIT TO GET RICH?!?🔥 Everyone is staring at STRC for the yield and STRF for the seniority, while STRK is sitting in the corner like a chemically enhanced preferred stock with a concealed MSTR call option taped under its trench coat. In this video, I break down why STRK might be one of the most slept-on securities in the Strategy capital stack, how its yield compares to STRC and STRF, and why the conversion option could become absurdly valuable if Strategy keeps compounding Bitcoin exposure per share. STRC is income. STRF is senior income. STRK might be income with a Saylor-powered moon launcher attached. Not financial advice. I am just a man watching the fiat retirement complex get folded into a Bitcoin meat grinder:
22:12

🔥STRK: THE BEST VALUE IN BITCOIN - GET PAID TO WAIT TO GET RICH?!?🔥 Everyone is staring at STRC for the yield and STRF for the seniority, while STRK is sitting in the corner like a chemically enhanced preferred stock with a concealed MSTR call option taped under its trench coat. In this video, I break down why STRK might be one of the most slept-on securities in the Strategy capital stack, how its yield compares to STRC and STRF, and why the conversion option could become absurdly valuable if Strategy keeps compounding Bitcoin exposure per share. STRC is income. STRF is senior income. STRK might be income with a Saylor-powered moon launcher attached. Not financial advice. I am just a man watching the fiat retirement complex get folded into a Bitcoin meat grinder:

Adam Livingston

23,480 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

LUKE GROMEN SAYS NO ONE HAS ACCURATELY DESCRIBED HIS NEAR-TERM BEARISH STANCE ON BITCOIN So here it is, line by line: • Gromen says he sold most, but not all, of his Bitcoin. • He argues most people misunderstand why he is bearish. • He says his thesis that Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm of global liquidity has been proven right. • What was proven wrong, for now, is Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset in deflation. • In deflation, Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock. • In other words, Bitcoin behaves like equity, not cash or gold. • The global economy is extremely leveraged. • In any leveraged system, deflation hits the equity tranche first. • Bitcoin, in Gromen’s framework, is the equity tranche. • AI and robotics are enforcing accelerating, exponential deflation. • Productivity gains overwhelm anything short of extreme money printing. • Without “nuclear printing,” deflation dominates. • When deflation dominates, equity prices fall. • Because Bitcoin trades like equity, Bitcoin falls. • Gromen does not think nuclear printing is coming soon. • He thinks sentiment on Bitcoin remains extremely bullish because of all the hate he has gotten for selling. • Long term, he is still bullish on Bitcoin. • He still expects deflation to eventually force the 'nuclear printing'. • His mistake was timing the policy response too early. • Until that response arrives, he believes Bitcoin is vulnerable.
5:02

LUKE GROMEN SAYS NO ONE HAS ACCURATELY DESCRIBED HIS NEAR-TERM BEARISH STANCE ON BITCOIN So here it is, line by line: • Gromen says he sold most, but not all, of his Bitcoin. • He argues most people misunderstand why he is bearish. • He says his thesis that Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm of global liquidity has been proven right. • What was proven wrong, for now, is Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset in deflation. • In deflation, Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock. • In other words, Bitcoin behaves like equity, not cash or gold. • The global economy is extremely leveraged. • In any leveraged system, deflation hits the equity tranche first. • Bitcoin, in Gromen’s framework, is the equity tranche. • AI and robotics are enforcing accelerating, exponential deflation. • Productivity gains overwhelm anything short of extreme money printing. • Without “nuclear printing,” deflation dominates. • When deflation dominates, equity prices fall. • Because Bitcoin trades like equity, Bitcoin falls. • Gromen does not think nuclear printing is coming soon. • He thinks sentiment on Bitcoin remains extremely bullish because of all the hate he has gotten for selling. • Long term, he is still bullish on Bitcoin. • He still expects deflation to eventually force the 'nuclear printing'. • His mistake was timing the policy response too early. • Until that response arrives, he believes Bitcoin is vulnerable.

Bitcoin News

201,601 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад