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Jun thoughts about 30y/o

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mjf.

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52,570 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS? Japan's 30Y bond yield and the US 30Y bond yield are getting very close now. In the last 18 years, this has only happened thrice before. 2008 - JP 30Y and US 30Y shrink and were only 100 BPS apart. - Over the next 6 months, the S&P 500 crashed 43%. 2011-12 - JP 30Y and US 30Y shrank and were 150 BPS apart. - S&P 500 dropped almost 22%. 2020 - Pandemic fear brought JP 30Y and US 30Y closer. - Everything had a flash crash. But why is this a bad sign? This is because rising Japanese bond yields reduce the demand for US bonds. Japanese investors sell foreign bonds and put that into Japanese bonds. And because Japan is the biggest T-bill holder, this causes US bond yields to spike. High bond yields mean more debt repayments and a risk-off environment, which eventually leads to a brutal market crash. If bond yields don't cool off soon, THIS TIME WON'T BE ANY DIFFERENT.
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WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS? Japan's 30Y bond yield and the US 30Y bond yield are getting very close now. In the last 18 years, this has only happened thrice before. 2008 - JP 30Y and US 30Y shrink and were only 100 BPS apart. - Over the next 6 months, the S&P 500 crashed 43%. 2011-12 - JP 30Y and US 30Y shrank and were 150 BPS apart. - S&P 500 dropped almost 22%. 2020 - Pandemic fear brought JP 30Y and US 30Y closer. - Everything had a flash crash. But why is this a bad sign? This is because rising Japanese bond yields reduce the demand for US bonds. Japanese investors sell foreign bonds and put that into Japanese bonds. And because Japan is the biggest T-bill holder, this causes US bond yields to spike. High bond yields mean more debt repayments and a risk-off environment, which eventually leads to a brutal market crash. If bond yields don't cool off soon, THIS TIME WON'T BE ANY DIFFERENT.

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