Loading video...

Video Failed to Load

There was a problem loading this video. This could be due to a temporary network issue or the video might be unavailable.

JUST IN: Anthropic confirms China is stealing its AI models, citing "multiple rounds of evidence." Anthropic's Frontier Red Team lead says Chinese research groups are distilling from US models and calls it "theft of American IP." "If you're taking the best of American innovation and throwing it back to... show more

Coin Bureau

1,118,216 subscribers

117,427 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

Science & Technology News & Politics

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 Comments

No comments available

Comments from the original post will appear here

Related Videos

🚨 Q: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said the administration will look into if Chinese AI models are STEALING from America AI models. Do you think China is stealing American IP? PRESIDENT TRUMP: They're look at us and we're looking at them — but we're LEADING China substantially in AI. We're gonna keep it that way. We're leading EVERYBODY in EVERYTHING! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

🚨 Q: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said the administration will look into if Chinese AI models are STEALING from America AI models. Do you think China is stealing American IP? PRESIDENT TRUMP: They're look at us and we're looking at them — but we're LEADING China substantially in AI. We're gonna keep it that way. We're leading EVERYBODY in EVERYTHING! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

23,943 views • 1 month ago

Business professor Scott Galloway says China is flooding the world with dirt-cheap AI models on purpose, and it’s wrecking American AI companies faster than cheap Japanese cars ever wrecked Detroit. “Free Chinese models went from less than a third of all traffic in late 2025 to about two-thirds recently.” “They steal the IP on a cell phone tower from Siemens, and then they manufacture it with cheaper labor and they sell it back for 40 cents on the dollar.” “The best business model in history is IP theft.” “What the Chinese automobile industry did to Detroit in about three decades, it feels like Beijing is doing to us in AI frontier models in about three months.”

Business professor Scott Galloway says China is flooding the world with dirt-cheap AI models on purpose, and it’s wrecking American AI companies faster than cheap Japanese cars ever wrecked Detroit. “Free Chinese models went from less than a third of all traffic in late 2025 to about two-thirds recently.” “They steal the IP on a cell phone tower from Siemens, and then they manufacture it with cheaper labor and they sell it back for 40 cents on the dollar.” “The best business model in history is IP theft.” “What the Chinese automobile industry did to Detroit in about three decades, it feels like Beijing is doing to us in AI frontier models in about three months.”

ileri 𖣂

125,819 views • 2 months ago

Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar says Chinese open source models pose a "threat to American Prosperity": "These Chinese open source models are really the result of distillation attacks." "Most of this is just stolen American IP from frontier labs, and I think the frontier labs should do more to protect that IP, and that's in their own economic interest." "The gravest threat to us is not homicide, it's suicide." "It's an inability to turn these tokens into economic value and generate American prosperity for it." "You see that with the proposed moratorium in New York on data centers. Turning our back on AI would be as consequential a mistake as turning our back on the atom in the '70s." "It's just the beginning, but we're starting to see a burgeoning US open model ecosystem forming." "NVIDIA's Nemotron models are very good." "I think you're going to see in the next month a slate of announcements of other American companies, non-frontier labs, neo labs, who are putting out open weight models that companies are going to be able to cheaply fine-tune and capture their own alpha in weights they control." Via Bloomberg

Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar says Chinese open source models pose a "threat to American Prosperity": "These Chinese open source models are really the result of distillation attacks." "Most of this is just stolen American IP from frontier labs, and I think the frontier labs should do more to protect that IP, and that's in their own economic interest." "The gravest threat to us is not homicide, it's suicide." "It's an inability to turn these tokens into economic value and generate American prosperity for it." "You see that with the proposed moratorium in New York on data centers. Turning our back on AI would be as consequential a mistake as turning our back on the atom in the '70s." "It's just the beginning, but we're starting to see a burgeoning US open model ecosystem forming." "NVIDIA's Nemotron models are very good." "I think you're going to see in the next month a slate of announcements of other American companies, non-frontier labs, neo labs, who are putting out open weight models that companies are going to be able to cheaply fine-tune and capture their own alpha in weights they control." Via Bloomberg

Jawwwn

181,054 views • 2 months ago

What happens to Chinese AI once American companies stop releasing frontier models internationally? Gavin Baker says that China's made a "terrible mistake" by relying on its own chips and distilling American models: "It feels like the administration has been willing to let them buy H200s or B30s. And I think [the Chinese] have this crazy belief that, 'Oh, our own internal chips are good enough.' They're not." "And what's making them think that is that Chinese labs are very, very good at distillation...we've all seen those iPhone farms in China. You know they've got the same thing for distillation. They've got 100,000 endpoints distilling these models across every API available." "They've gotten really, really good at that. But all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier. And I think Mythos is a sign of things to come there."

What happens to Chinese AI once American companies stop releasing frontier models internationally? Gavin Baker says that China's made a "terrible mistake" by relying on its own chips and distilling American models: "It feels like the administration has been willing to let them buy H200s or B30s. And I think [the Chinese] have this crazy belief that, 'Oh, our own internal chips are good enough.' They're not." "And what's making them think that is that Chinese labs are very, very good at distillation...we've all seen those iPhone farms in China. You know they've got the same thing for distillation. They've got 100,000 endpoints distilling these models across every API available." "They've gotten really, really good at that. But all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier. And I think Mythos is a sign of things to come there."

TBPN

122,701 views • 3 months ago

US officials accused six Chinese AI companies, including DeepSeek and Alibaba, of copying American AI models. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Washington is now treating stolen AI research the way it treats stolen military secrets. That's overdue. American labs have spent hundreds of billions building these models, and Chinese firms have been quietly training cheaper copies. CISA, NSA, and the FBI put their names on the same statement together, which almost never happens.

US officials accused six Chinese AI companies, including DeepSeek and Alibaba, of copying American AI models. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Washington is now treating stolen AI research the way it treats stolen military secrets. That's overdue. American labs have spent hundreds of billions building these models, and Chinese firms have been quietly training cheaper copies. CISA, NSA, and the FBI put their names on the same statement together, which almost never happens.

Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial

71,725 views • 12 days ago

🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸 CHINESE AI JUST BEAT AMERICAN AI INSIDE THE US CHINESE MODELS NOW HANDLE OVER 50% OF US COMPANY TOKEN TRAFFIC ON OPENROUTER ONE YEAR AGO THEIR SHARE WAS JUST 4.5% AMERICA IS LOSING THE AI RACE TO CHINA

🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸 CHINESE AI JUST BEAT AMERICAN AI INSIDE THE US CHINESE MODELS NOW HANDLE OVER 50% OF US COMPANY TOKEN TRAFFIC ON OPENROUTER ONE YEAR AGO THEIR SHARE WAS JUST 4.5% AMERICA IS LOSING THE AI RACE TO CHINA

Leshka.eth ⛩

29,851 views • 2 months ago

Sriram Krishnan on why Chinese models can distill off American models but American startups can't: "First of all, every model we have today is distilled off of all human knowledge. If you go back to the original GPT or the original Claude, they all had to derive off crawling the internet, crawling off all of our blogs and tweets and content. They kind of consume human knowledge to bootstrap that." "I'm going to steal this from Dean Meyer of Sequoia, who had a fantastic post yesterday. The situation which is bad today is that some of these models from other countries can train off American models, whereas if you are an American open weight model, it may be really confusing or challenging on whether you can distill off of other American models." "We kind of have a really uneven ecosystem here, where if you're a Chinese model, you could probably get a bunch of reasoning traces. But if you are a new Valley startup and you want to use some reasoning traces, you don't know what the legal situation is." "If you look at any American open source model today, they are using Chinese models as a teacher, or in a way as a part of the fine-tuning process. How do we make sure that is protected and enshrined, so if you're an American model company, you have the same level playing field as the Chinese models?" Sriram Krishnan

Sriram Krishnan on why Chinese models can distill off American models but American startups can't: "First of all, every model we have today is distilled off of all human knowledge. If you go back to the original GPT or the original Claude, they all had to derive off crawling the internet, crawling off all of our blogs and tweets and content. They kind of consume human knowledge to bootstrap that." "I'm going to steal this from Dean Meyer of Sequoia, who had a fantastic post yesterday. The situation which is bad today is that some of these models from other countries can train off American models, whereas if you are an American open weight model, it may be really confusing or challenging on whether you can distill off of other American models." "We kind of have a really uneven ecosystem here, where if you're a Chinese model, you could probably get a bunch of reasoning traces. But if you are a new Valley startup and you want to use some reasoning traces, you don't know what the legal situation is." "If you look at any American open source model today, they are using Chinese models as a teacher, or in a way as a part of the fine-tuning process. How do we make sure that is protected and enshrined, so if you're an American model company, you have the same level playing field as the Chinese models?" Sriram Krishnan

MTS

71,286 views • 2 months ago

Clip from my podcast on how DeepSeek just CRUSHED U.S. AI frontier labs' revenue models. This is why you're seeing the Anthropic freakout demanding government regulation and censorship of AI models. Because Anthropic cannot compete with DeepSeek, Alibaba, Kimi, GLM or other cutting-edge China-developed AI models. Full podcast at Bright Videos

Clip from my podcast on how DeepSeek just CRUSHED U.S. AI frontier labs' revenue models. This is why you're seeing the Anthropic freakout demanding government regulation and censorship of AI models. Because Anthropic cannot compete with DeepSeek, Alibaba, Kimi, GLM or other cutting-edge China-developed AI models. Full podcast at Bright Videos

HealthRanger

13,292 views • 11 days ago

$🇨🇳 CHINA IS ALMOST READY TO UNDERCUT THE WORLD'S BEST AI MODELS. Six months ago, that sounded impossible. Today GLM-5.2 is open source and costs a fraction of frontier models. Zhipu's co-founder says Fable-class Chinese AI comes even sooner than people think. This is the same playbook China ran on solar, on steel, on EVs. Build it cheaper. Give it away. Take the market. If China delivers frontier AI at a fraction of the price, the economics holding up the U.S. AI market start to crack.$

🇨🇳 CHINA IS ALMOST READY TO UNDERCUT THE WORLD'S BEST AI MODELS. Six months ago, that sounded impossible. Today GLM-5.2 is open source and costs a fraction of frontier models. Zhipu's co-founder says Fable-class Chinese AI comes even sooner than people think. This is the same playbook China ran on solar, on steel, on EVs. Build it cheaper. Give it away. Take the market. If China delivers frontier AI at a fraction of the price, the economics holding up the U.S. AI market start to crack.

CryptoGoos

46,782 views • 3 months ago

🔥SAM ALTMAN on China distilling US AI models: "This is not in my top 10 list of worries." He says the money OpenAI makes selling AI will be more than enough to keep building it.

🔥SAM ALTMAN on China distilling US AI models: "This is not in my top 10 list of worries." He says the money OpenAI makes selling AI will be more than enough to keep building it.

Coin Bureau

30,294 views • 1 month ago

The American AI company AfterQuery AfterQuery is reportedly generating at least $50 MILLION in recurring revenue from Chinese AI labs while maintaining ties to Ant Group Ant Group and Alibaba, two major Chinese technology companies. Its CEO Spencer Mateega publicly celebrated Moonshot AI’s Kimi model for topping an AfterQuery benchmark and called the Chinese team “cracked.”Moonshot AI is a Chinese AI company based in Beijing, China American AI executives are traveling to China, hiring China engagement managers and openly praising the Chinese models competing to overtake the United States in AI dominance. How many warning signs does Washington need before it stops American AI companies from helping China overtake the United States in the AI race? David Sacks

The American AI company AfterQuery AfterQuery is reportedly generating at least $50 MILLION in recurring revenue from Chinese AI labs while maintaining ties to Ant Group Ant Group and Alibaba, two major Chinese technology companies. Its CEO Spencer Mateega publicly celebrated Moonshot AI’s Kimi model for topping an AfterQuery benchmark and called the Chinese team “cracked.”Moonshot AI is a Chinese AI company based in Beijing, China American AI executives are traveling to China, hiring China engagement managers and openly praising the Chinese models competing to overtake the United States in AI dominance. How many warning signs does Washington need before it stops American AI companies from helping China overtake the United States in the AI race? David Sacks

Laura Loomer

66,528 views • 1 month ago

Bessent says Chinese AI will fail because China “won’t turn over enough control.” He seems to have forgotten that many of China’s leading models are open-weight and used around the world — including by Americans. DeepSeek. Qwen. GLM. MiniMax. China is not telling American developers they are forbidden to download and use them. Meanwhile, American frontier AI is increasingly closed, geofenced and politically rationed. OpenAI does not officially serve mainland China or Hong Kong, and warns that accessing its services from unsupported regions may get your account suspended. Anthropic goes even further: it does not even provide a Chinese-language UI, as if speaking Chinese were a chinese nationality, while restricting Chinese companies — including overseas subsidiaries — and requiring users from unsupported regions such as China to verify their identity or lose access. So remind me again: Who exactly is afraid to give up control? Chinese models are being released for the world to download, deploy and modify. American models increasingly come with a map, a blacklist, a permission system and a kill switch. Apparently “freedom” now means Washington decides who is allowed to use the model.

Bessent says Chinese AI will fail because China “won’t turn over enough control.” He seems to have forgotten that many of China’s leading models are open-weight and used around the world — including by Americans. DeepSeek. Qwen. GLM. MiniMax. China is not telling American developers they are forbidden to download and use them. Meanwhile, American frontier AI is increasingly closed, geofenced and politically rationed. OpenAI does not officially serve mainland China or Hong Kong, and warns that accessing its services from unsupported regions may get your account suspended. Anthropic goes even further: it does not even provide a Chinese-language UI, as if speaking Chinese were a chinese nationality, while restricting Chinese companies — including overseas subsidiaries — and requiring users from unsupported regions such as China to verify their identity or lose access. So remind me again: Who exactly is afraid to give up control? Chinese models are being released for the world to download, deploy and modify. American models increasingly come with a map, a blacklist, a permission system and a kill switch. Apparently “freedom” now means Washington decides who is allowed to use the model.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

27,623 views • 12 days ago

American small businesses shouldn’t have to rely on Chinese Communist Party-linked AI models to compete. My Open-Source AI Leadership Act promotes American alternatives while exposing the security risks posed by Chinese AI. American data belongs in America — not in the hands of Communist China. We need to protect our innovators, our jobs, and our data. 🇺🇸

American small businesses shouldn’t have to rely on Chinese Communist Party-linked AI models to compete. My Open-Source AI Leadership Act promotes American alternatives while exposing the security risks posed by Chinese AI. American data belongs in America — not in the hands of Communist China. We need to protect our innovators, our jobs, and our data. 🇺🇸

Congressman Gabe Evans

10,326 views • 15 days ago

America has the edge in the world’s most powerful AI models, no question. But China is playing a different game: efficiency, scale, and global deployment. Kyle Chan from Brookings China explains: "Does winning mean developing the world's most powerful AI models? If yes, then the us has the decisive lead. American ai models are widely recognized as the best in the world on virtually every metric you can think of, from math and reasoning to coding and AI agents, American private companies continue to set the pace at the technological frontier supported by deep capital markets, a dynamic innovation ecosystem, and the best talent from around the world. China's AI models are improving quickly but continue to lag behind. Chinese AI companies face real constraints on compute due to our export controls and their own limited capital resources, so instead they're prioritizing other goals. They're focused on efficiency, building models that are cheaper to train and run. They're focused on adoption using an open source strategy to win users around the world, and they're focused on integration with other platforms and services. On sheer performance, I would expect the gap between our models and theirs to persist or even widen over time. But model performance is not everything."

America has the edge in the world’s most powerful AI models, no question. But China is playing a different game: efficiency, scale, and global deployment. Kyle Chan from Brookings China explains: "Does winning mean developing the world's most powerful AI models? If yes, then the us has the decisive lead. American ai models are widely recognized as the best in the world on virtually every metric you can think of, from math and reasoning to coding and AI agents, American private companies continue to set the pace at the technological frontier supported by deep capital markets, a dynamic innovation ecosystem, and the best talent from around the world. China's AI models are improving quickly but continue to lag behind. Chinese AI companies face real constraints on compute due to our export controls and their own limited capital resources, so instead they're prioritizing other goals. They're focused on efficiency, building models that are cheaper to train and run. They're focused on adoption using an open source strategy to win users around the world, and they're focused on integration with other platforms and services. On sheer performance, I would expect the gap between our models and theirs to persist or even widen over time. But model performance is not everything."

Select Committee on China

60,135 views • 5 months ago

Initially, Micron committed $75B to build semiconductors in America. Under President Trump’s leadership, that investment has grown to $200B. Companies are seeing the value of investing in American innovation, American power, and the American economy. President Trump’s America First Agenda is delivering—bringing jobs, manufacturing, and research back to America.

Initially, Micron committed $75B to build semiconductors in America. Under President Trump’s leadership, that investment has grown to $200B. Companies are seeing the value of investing in American innovation, American power, and the American economy. President Trump’s America First Agenda is delivering—bringing jobs, manufacturing, and research back to America.

U.S. Department of Commerce

12,762 views • 8 months ago

China just released an open source AI model that matches the best closed models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Gavin Baker explained exactly how they did it and the answer should concern every American AI lab. The model is called GLM 5.2. It was built by Z. AI. You get 744 billion parameters, 1 million token context window and its MIT license, meaning anyone can download it, fork it, build a company on it, with no restrictions and no Dario. It scored 51 points on the artificial analysis intelligence index. The highest score any open weight model has ever achieved. It beat GPT 5.5 on the frontier software engineering benchmark. It trails Claude Opus 4.8 by less than one percentage point. And it costs 85% less to run than GPT 5.5 for comparable performance. Gavin Baker said on the All-In podcast that this model has challenged some of his beliefs. Then he explained how China built it. The method is called distillation. Just think of tens of thousands of phones and computers running simultaneously, all hitting the frontier model APIs through masked accounts, asking specific questions, and harvesting what happens inside the model when it answers. Every reasoning step, every token. The entire thinking process gets recorded and fed back into the Chinese model during training. It is a cheat sheet. It is the answer key to the exam. And here is the part that should worry everyone. Sacks said it plainly. China was already nine months behind American models. But now that GLM 5.2 is good enough to run its own reinforcement learning, it can improve itself without needing to distill from American models anymore. The cheat sheet let them get close enough to start writing their own answers. Sacks said we are six months behind on the model and 24 months behind on silicon and they are only a few months behind in total. The Z. AI founder told Elon Musk directly that open weight fable-level capability will be here before Q1 2027. Every restriction Anthropic lobbied for, every self-imposed safety guardrail, every month of delay in releasing American frontier models accelerated this. The Chinese labs were not under those restrictions. They were not going to wait. The composable model future Gavin described, where every enterprise runs a frontier model alongside their own fine-tuned open weight model, is coming regardless of what American labs do next. The question is just whether the open weight half of that stack is American or Chinese. Right now it is Chinese. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

China just released an open source AI model that matches the best closed models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Gavin Baker explained exactly how they did it and the answer should concern every American AI lab. The model is called GLM 5.2. It was built by Z. AI. You get 744 billion parameters, 1 million token context window and its MIT license, meaning anyone can download it, fork it, build a company on it, with no restrictions and no Dario. It scored 51 points on the artificial analysis intelligence index. The highest score any open weight model has ever achieved. It beat GPT 5.5 on the frontier software engineering benchmark. It trails Claude Opus 4.8 by less than one percentage point. And it costs 85% less to run than GPT 5.5 for comparable performance. Gavin Baker said on the All-In podcast that this model has challenged some of his beliefs. Then he explained how China built it. The method is called distillation. Just think of tens of thousands of phones and computers running simultaneously, all hitting the frontier model APIs through masked accounts, asking specific questions, and harvesting what happens inside the model when it answers. Every reasoning step, every token. The entire thinking process gets recorded and fed back into the Chinese model during training. It is a cheat sheet. It is the answer key to the exam. And here is the part that should worry everyone. Sacks said it plainly. China was already nine months behind American models. But now that GLM 5.2 is good enough to run its own reinforcement learning, it can improve itself without needing to distill from American models anymore. The cheat sheet let them get close enough to start writing their own answers. Sacks said we are six months behind on the model and 24 months behind on silicon and they are only a few months behind in total. The Z. AI founder told Elon Musk directly that open weight fable-level capability will be here before Q1 2027. Every restriction Anthropic lobbied for, every self-imposed safety guardrail, every month of delay in releasing American frontier models accelerated this. The Chinese labs were not under those restrictions. They were not going to wait. The composable model future Gavin described, where every enterprise runs a frontier model alongside their own fine-tuned open weight model, is coming regardless of what American labs do next. The question is just whether the open weight half of that stack is American or Chinese. Right now it is Chinese. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

86,621 views • 2 months ago

Asked if China's DeepSeek stole American IP, AI Czar David Sacks says it looks like a technique called distillation was used where a student model can "suck the knowledge" out of the parent model and there is evidence that DeepSeek distilled knowledge from OpenAI's models, which is leading to efforts to develop techniques to prevent future copycats

Asked if China's DeepSeek stole American IP, AI Czar David Sacks says it looks like a technique called distillation was used where a student model can "suck the knowledge" out of the parent model and there is evidence that DeepSeek distilled knowledge from OpenAI's models, which is leading to efforts to develop techniques to prevent future copycats

Tsarathustra

710,764 views • 1 year ago

China is once again unsettling its American competitors in the AI race. Chinese labs have returned to the spotlight with the unveiling of GLM 5.2, described as the most powerful AI model ever trained in China — and one of the leading open‑source models worldwide. 🔍 Key highlights of “GLM 5.2”: ♦️ It is considered the strongest AI model developed in China to date, and ranks among the smartest open‑source models available. ♦️ It operates at a cost less than one‑tenth that of Anthropic’s latest models, making it a far more economical option. ♦️ It is likely to attract developers and companies seeking powerful, low‑cost models — especially amid growing technical and geopolitical restrictions. ♦️ Some evaluations place the model among the top globally, trailing OpenAI’s models while outperforming several competitors in specialized benchmarks and performance tests.

China is once again unsettling its American competitors in the AI race. Chinese labs have returned to the spotlight with the unveiling of GLM 5.2, described as the most powerful AI model ever trained in China — and one of the leading open‑source models worldwide. 🔍 Key highlights of “GLM 5.2”: ♦️ It is considered the strongest AI model developed in China to date, and ranks among the smartest open‑source models available. ♦️ It operates at a cost less than one‑tenth that of Anthropic’s latest models, making it a far more economical option. ♦️ It is likely to attract developers and companies seeking powerful, low‑cost models — especially amid growing technical and geopolitical restrictions. ♦️ Some evaluations place the model among the top globally, trailing OpenAI’s models while outperforming several competitors in specialized benchmarks and performance tests.

China pulse 🇨🇳

14,293 views • 2 months ago

Chinese AI models are about seven months behind the best American ones, even though China has roughly 5% of the AI chips the US does. The seven-month figure comes from Epoch AI, which has tracked the gap since 2023. The 5% is a rough estimate from Anand Kannappan, who runs the evaluation company Patronus AI. If the US has 20 times the chips, you would expect its models to be more than seven months ahead. The lead stays that small because training a model has a finish line. You borrow enough chips, run the training, and you are done. Serving millions of users every day never finishes, and Chinese labs do not have the chips for that. Moonshot (a Chinese AI lab) launched its flagship model in July, suspended new subscriptions after three days because it ran out of computing power, and eight days later published the model for free so anyone could download and run it themselves. DeepSeek (a Chinese lab spun out of a Hangzhou hedge fund) ran its entire global service at a peak of 278 nodes, about 2,000 chips. MacroPolo's Global AI Talent Tracker (which surveys the major machine-learning conferences) finds that 38% of the world's top-tier AI researchers did their undergraduate degrees in China against 24% in America, and that 72% of the China-educated ones now work at American institutions. China trains more top AI researchers than any other country, most of them leave to work in America, and Chinese models still trail by only seven months. The chips China is short on are all printed by one kind of machine: an EUV lithography scanner. One Dutch company builds it, at about $380 million and 165 tons apiece. Under US pressure, the Dutch license to send one to China lapsed in mid-2019, and none has been issued since. ASML tracks all 314 operational machines on Earth for connectivity, so it knows where every one of them is.

Chinese AI models are about seven months behind the best American ones, even though China has roughly 5% of the AI chips the US does. The seven-month figure comes from Epoch AI, which has tracked the gap since 2023. The 5% is a rough estimate from Anand Kannappan, who runs the evaluation company Patronus AI. If the US has 20 times the chips, you would expect its models to be more than seven months ahead. The lead stays that small because training a model has a finish line. You borrow enough chips, run the training, and you are done. Serving millions of users every day never finishes, and Chinese labs do not have the chips for that. Moonshot (a Chinese AI lab) launched its flagship model in July, suspended new subscriptions after three days because it ran out of computing power, and eight days later published the model for free so anyone could download and run it themselves. DeepSeek (a Chinese lab spun out of a Hangzhou hedge fund) ran its entire global service at a peak of 278 nodes, about 2,000 chips. MacroPolo's Global AI Talent Tracker (which surveys the major machine-learning conferences) finds that 38% of the world's top-tier AI researchers did their undergraduate degrees in China against 24% in America, and that 72% of the China-educated ones now work at American institutions. China trains more top AI researchers than any other country, most of them leave to work in America, and Chinese models still trail by only seven months. The chips China is short on are all printed by one kind of machine: an EUV lithography scanner. One Dutch company builds it, at about $380 million and 165 tons apiece. Under US pressure, the Dutch license to send one to China lapsed in mid-2019, and none has been issued since. ASML tracks all 314 operational machines on Earth for connectivity, so it knows where every one of them is.

Sam Szuchan

12,999 views • 20 days ago

$Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?$

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

93,654 views • 2 months ago