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Ken Griffin says short-term alpha from calling the quarter with alt data is dying, and the next era of stock-picking belongs to those with a long-term horizon. "I think there'll be more focus and emphasis on those who have really good vision about what companies are actually creating transformative...

934,498 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Jack Prescott

258,450 просмотров • 1 год назад

"Courage is far shorter in supply than genius." - Peter Thiel "One of the challenges in writing a book about entrepreneurship or teaching a class on this is that there is sort of no formula. And I think science always starts with a number two. It starts with experiments you can repeat, things you can do over and over again. But there's sort of a sense in which every moment in the history of business, every moment in the history of technology happens only once. The next Mark Zuckerberg will not be starting a social networking company. The next Larry Page will not start a search engine. The next Bill Gates will not be starting an operating system. And so if you are trying to copy these people, you're in some sense not learning from them. And so I think one of the really big challenges in teaching or writing about entrepreneurship is what can you say about being an entrepreneur at all when the key thing is always to do something new, different, that's not precisely been done before. And so the point of departure I start with in Zero to One is a somewhat indirect approach by asking a series of contrarian questions. The business question is, what great company is nobody starting? The more intellectual version of this question is, tell me something true that very few people agree with you on. And this is a fantastic interview question. It turns out to be quite a hard question, even when people can read on the internet that you ask of everybody who comes in the door, it still is a hard question. It's one of those unusual questions where if you know it's on the test, it's still hard. And it's hard not just because we sort of think that new things require brilliance or something like that, but because it's socially difficult. If I ask you that question, if you tell me something like the education system is screwed up or our political system doesn't work very well, those are true answers, but they're not actually good answers because all of us already know them to be true. The good answers are ones that are somehow uncomfortable that the person interviewing you does not actually want to hear. And I think we live in this world where courage is in far shorter supply than genius. And so it is sort of this, it is in a sense this problem of political correctness properly understood, is this very deep, very, very broad sort of a problem."

Founder Mode

12,339 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

I think of this Peter Thiel clip often. Thiel discusses how he sold $META at IPO; underestimating just how easy it would be for the company to scale from a $100B market cap to $1T. While this conversation is specifically about big tech, I believe it can apply to any company with strong network effects, various flywheels, etc. That’s not to say every great company will hit $1T, but I do believe it’s likely we underestimate just how much a truly great company can accomplish over the long run. Valuation matters over the long run, so I’m not saying just because a company hits $100B it will magically become easier to scale… but relatively speaking, assuming said market cap is an accurate reflection of the success a company is having, I think Thiel’s take makes a lot of sense. Flywheels are very powerful.. In my view, Palantir is building a flywheel as an operating system, where the more users they adopt, the more improved the platform will become and the more attractive it will be for devs, which in turn attracts more users and so on. With AbCellera, I believe the more data they collect, the better their platform becomes and the more partners they will attract, which results in even more microfluidic experiments, resulting in more data/improved accuracy, attracting more partnered molecules, and so on. Everyone is focused on obtaining as many shares as possible, and I get that… I want to own as many shares as possible for the companies I believe in as well. But I also believe folks probably have way more shares than they realize. The key is being able to hold for the LONG term… decades. Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” I believe 500 shares of $PLTR and 1,000 of $ABCL can be life changing over the long run if the thesis plays out and you’re patient (emphasis on thesis playing out, which is never guaranteed)… Life changing meaning accumulating a disproportionate amount of wealth relative to the average person. Maybe it won’t get you a yacht and a mansion, but could at least make you not have to worry about money ever again with a modest lifestyle… something most people dream of. And this isn’t specific to just these companies; I use them as an example because they’re what I know. And to those who have thousands of shares… enjoy the show.

Jack Prescott

153,243 просмотров • 1 год назад