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Lamine Camara • Tactical Report ➡️Insanely press resistant - less errors than Baleba ➡️Strong ball winning profile: interceptions, slides, recoveries + 🥪 but can fall asleep when tracking ➡️Passing disguise 🔝 due to a mix of core strength and balance allowing him to pluck it out under his feet... show more

Pythagoras In Boots ⚽️

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Carlos Baleba • The ULTIMATE Tactical Report Full Video: ➡️Tough man marker... hard to beat in a 1 v 1 ➡️Statistics and Eye Test disagree on long passing ➡️Elite sprint stamina but lacks fuel for slower jogs ➡️ Unreal press resistance and line breaking when in the mood but also susceptible to being clumsy ➡️Aerial powerhouse and ball magnet, but ambles back into position when not following a target ➡️Ridiculous 🧨 shots, can even finesse from distance #ManUtd #ManchesterUnited #MUFC

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Pythagoras In Boots ⚽️

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Valentin Barco 🔵 ⚪️ The ULTIMATE Scout Report ➡️ Master of the through ball (Gradient Grade 80) ➡️ First Phase Receiver who uses momentum of one twos to break press ➡️ Outgrown LB, undergoing Kimmich-like journey ➡️ Dribbling has high end range but inconsistent execution Full Video: If you can't wait, head over to Patreon where it is out early release for Patrons. #chelsea #cfc

Valentin Barco 🔵 ⚪️ The ULTIMATE Scout Report ➡️ Master of the through ball (Gradient Grade 80) ➡️ First Phase Receiver who uses momentum of one twos to break press ➡️ Outgrown LB, undergoing Kimmich-like journey ➡️ Dribbling has high end range but inconsistent execution Full Video: If you can't wait, head over to Patreon where it is out early release for Patrons. #chelsea #cfc

Pythagoras In Boots ⚽️

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As Zubimendi stars for club and country, Arsenal are currently keeping tabs on Zubimendi-lite, Lucien Agoumé. Agoumé is my top choice to replace Nørgaard as Zubimendi's understudy. He is VERY similar, stylistically. ➡️Ridiculous anticipation to intercept passes ➡️Rarely makes mistakes or miscontrols ➡️Nice switch of play with his passing ➡️Dominant in he air ➡️Dominant in ground duels ➡️Keeps it simple as a perfect recycler ➡️But can also give a killer pass when necessary He doesn't overdo anything and does his job, then gives the ball to more creative maestros ahead of him (CM, AM, wingers), which makes him suited for big teams.

As Zubimendi stars for club and country, Arsenal are currently keeping tabs on Zubimendi-lite, Lucien Agoumé. Agoumé is my top choice to replace Nørgaard as Zubimendi's understudy. He is VERY similar, stylistically. ➡️Ridiculous anticipation to intercept passes ➡️Rarely makes mistakes or miscontrols ➡️Nice switch of play with his passing ➡️Dominant in he air ➡️Dominant in ground duels ➡️Keeps it simple as a perfect recycler ➡️But can also give a killer pass when necessary He doesn't overdo anything and does his job, then gives the ball to more creative maestros ahead of him (CM, AM, wingers), which makes him suited for big teams.

Uzumaki Tony

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➡️ When Shahid Afridi approached US he was wearing a mask. ➡️ We had NO idea who he was. We repeat. HE APPROACHED US. ➡️ He started talking to one of our group who was handing out leaflets. ➡️ HE took off his mask and HE asked for pictures by walking to the main group to have them taken. ➡️ Can Shahid Afridi read English? He can. ➡️ Did he see see we were standing there with huge placards for Israel hostages? Yes he did. ➡️ Did he agree to a selfie with us with hostage leaflets in front of his face? YES ➡️ This video shows how our group was set up. You CANNOT miss the posters. ➡️ Shahid Afridi KNEW what he was doing and offered his support WILLINGLY. ➡️ You might not like it but it's true. Deal with it!

NW Friends of Israel

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🚨 The canvas text initiative has a full POC.🚨 justin set out to make the most robust and portable text rendering for web canvas possible and early results are promising. ➡️ Slug, MSDF, bitmap, it supports all of the different technologies with one API. We want to give users the choice for their app requirements. ➡️ Full font shaping support. Icons, CJK, ligatures, line breaks, we got it all. ➡️ Text styles! Stroke, shadow, color and we can do more. Anyone want full CSS support? ➡️ Offline and runtime font baking. ➡️ Realtime paragraph layout. Like pretext… but faster! ➡️ Fully portable. WebGL, WebGPU, native shaders, TSL, React, we made this from the ground up to serve all users.

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Poimandres

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🔥 The ULTIMATE Frankball Deep Dive - WHY Tottenham's defence is locked in but the attack’s struggling? ➡️Joao Palhinha’s been a monster ball-winner ... one of the best in the league at shielding the back line... but when it comes to build-up he looks limited... very few progressive passes... not the press-resistant six Spurs need compared to a Zubimendi-type profile who moves play forward with risk and precision ➡️ Brennan Johnson’s another casualty of the new setup... he was a threat down the right where he could run onto the ball but now on the left he’s forced into build-up play... and that’s not his game - his link-up breaks under pressure ➡️ Djed Spence is slowing Spurs down too in the build up phase, always wants to shift onto his right foot... extra touches... more recycling, less verticality which is having a knock on effect on Xavi Simons who was used to Raum at Leipzig bombing on and holding the width. ➡️ Without Son Heung-min and Harry Kane the final third has lost its elite edge... less decisiveness... fewer game-changers and for a pragmatic coach like Frank who depends on clinical finishers rather than a fluid attacking system... that’s a big problem, doesn't help no Kulu or Madders either. The upside: 🔼They’re harder to beat 🔼Set-pieces look drilled (Attacking AND Defensive) 🔼Opposition getting fewer clean looks at goal... So yes... the defence is fixed... but the attack needs time for key personnel to get fit, some rejigging positions wise and possibly transfers made in January and beyond. #THFC

Pythagoras In Boots ⚽️

34,686 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

RUSSELL NAPIER'S AI REALITY CHECK: PRODUCTIVITY BOOM WON'T SOLVE DEBT OR DELIVER EASY STOCK GAINS - GOLD IS SET TO PERFORM WELL Russell Napier has studied markets and debt for decades. He is now directly challenging the idea that artificial intelligence will rescue economic growth and government balance sheets. At the same time he sees a very different kind of bear market ahead for American stocks. His message is simple but uncomfortable for anyone hoping for quick fixes or sharp rebounds. THE AI PRODUCTIVITY TRAP ➡️ Napier is skeptical that AI can be relied upon to deliver high growth and solve debt problems in a short period of time. ➡️ Technology does increase productivity yet history demonstrates it does not always lead to strong stock returns. ➡️ High levels of money creation at the same time often prevent those productivity gains from producing low inflation. ➡️ Governments will not wait passively for better days to arrive. ➡️ They will instead move quickly to impose financial repression on savers and investors. THE SIDEWAYS MARKET TRAP ➡️ Napier believes a painful crash on the scale of 2008 remains less likely than most expect. ➡️ The more probable path is a long and volatile sideways market for US stocks similar to the 1966 to 1982 era. ➡️ Corporate profits will rise during this time but valuations will compress steadily. ➡️ Investors will suffer poor overall returns despite the growth in earnings. ➡️ The market can simply go nowhere for years even as companies become more profitable. ➡️ Gold is looking positive due to the massive money printing THE BOTTOM LINE Napier believes the AI-driven productivity story will disappoint on growth and inflation control. This forces governments toward repression while stocks enter a grinding phase of rising earnings but falling multiples. The real bear market is the one that never crashes but still leaves investors with almost nothing to show after more than a decade. #RussellNapier #SidewaysMarket #AIProductivity #FinancialRepression #StockValuations #BearMarketWarning #DebtCycle

RUSSELL NAPIER'S AI REALITY CHECK: PRODUCTIVITY BOOM WON'T SOLVE DEBT OR DELIVER EASY STOCK GAINS - GOLD IS SET TO PERFORM WELL Russell Napier has studied markets and debt for decades. He is now directly challenging the idea that artificial intelligence will rescue economic growth and government balance sheets. At the same time he sees a very different kind of bear market ahead for American stocks. His message is simple but uncomfortable for anyone hoping for quick fixes or sharp rebounds. THE AI PRODUCTIVITY TRAP ➡️ Napier is skeptical that AI can be relied upon to deliver high growth and solve debt problems in a short period of time. ➡️ Technology does increase productivity yet history demonstrates it does not always lead to strong stock returns. ➡️ High levels of money creation at the same time often prevent those productivity gains from producing low inflation. ➡️ Governments will not wait passively for better days to arrive. ➡️ They will instead move quickly to impose financial repression on savers and investors. THE SIDEWAYS MARKET TRAP ➡️ Napier believes a painful crash on the scale of 2008 remains less likely than most expect. ➡️ The more probable path is a long and volatile sideways market for US stocks similar to the 1966 to 1982 era. ➡️ Corporate profits will rise during this time but valuations will compress steadily. ➡️ Investors will suffer poor overall returns despite the growth in earnings. ➡️ The market can simply go nowhere for years even as companies become more profitable. ➡️ Gold is looking positive due to the massive money printing THE BOTTOM LINE Napier believes the AI-driven productivity story will disappoint on growth and inflation control. This forces governments toward repression while stocks enter a grinding phase of rising earnings but falling multiples. The real bear market is the one that never crashes but still leaves investors with almost nothing to show after more than a decade. #RussellNapier #SidewaysMarket #AIProductivity #FinancialRepression #StockValuations #BearMarketWarning #DebtCycle

Mark

33,954 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Croatia was kicked out of the match because Matanic touched the ball with his hair AND the referee had to decide if Viega’s contact with the ball is considered “deliberate play”. If yes, the goal was correct, but the referee decided “no”. But what are the rules saying? In FIFA and IFAB Laws of the Game, deliberate play is when a player has control of the ball and attempts to pass, gain possession, or clear it. *‘Deliberate play’ (excluding deliberate handball) is when a player has control of the ball with the possibility of: •passing the ball to a team-mate; •gaining possession of the ball; or •clearing the ball (e.g. by kicking or heading it) ➡️clearing the ball (e.g. by kicking or heading it) And that’s what Viega did. He cleared the ball. But a Croatian player managed to intercept the ball before it went out of play; that led to the goal. Croatia was robbed. Source in comments.

Croatia was kicked out of the match because Matanic touched the ball with his hair AND the referee had to decide if Viega’s contact with the ball is considered “deliberate play”. If yes, the goal was correct, but the referee decided “no”. But what are the rules saying? In FIFA and IFAB Laws of the Game, deliberate play is when a player has control of the ball and attempts to pass, gain possession, or clear it. *‘Deliberate play’ (excluding deliberate handball) is when a player has control of the ball with the possibility of: •passing the ball to a team-mate; •gaining possession of the ball; or •clearing the ball (e.g. by kicking or heading it) ➡️clearing the ball (e.g. by kicking or heading it) And that’s what Viega did. He cleared the ball. But a Croatian player managed to intercept the ball before it went out of play; that led to the goal. Croatia was robbed. Source in comments.

Goran Majić

35,114 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

LARRY JOHNSON PREDICTS: US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND Ex CIA Larry Johnson cuts through the noise with a chilling assessment based on troop movements and force deployments right now. Trump has not backed down out of fear. He is simply playing the same games he has played before to lull the Iranians into complacency. A major ground attack is coming fast, and it is aimed straight at the heart of the Strait of Hormuz. THE INVASION TIMELINE ➡️ The United States will launch a ground attack this weekend. ➡️ If bad weather hits, it may be pushed back until Monday or Tuesday. ➡️ If the weather clears, expect it sometime Friday or Saturday. THE TARGETS SELECTED ➡️ They will attack either Car Island or Keshum Island. ➡️ Car Island is one of the most important gas production sites for the Iranians. THE DEPLOYMENT DETAILS ➡️ Massive special operation assets have already been poured into the region. ➡️ Right now they are deployed in Israel and Jordan. ➡️ They will be forward deployed prior to the operation to Aluded Air Force Base in Qatar or possibly Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia. ➡️ Aluded would be the more likely location. THE STATED MISSION ➡️ The attack is ostensibly to open the Strait of Hormuz. THE INEVITABLE FAILURE ➡️ It will fail. ➡️ They may actually take control of Keshum Island. ➡️ But then what? ➡️ Iran still has drones, submarines, underwater drones that are maneuverable, and missiles in the cliffs that line the strait. ➡️ The United States is not sending enough military force to actually open the strait and keep it open. THE DEADLY CONSEQUENCE ➡️ What they are creating is a big fat target that Iran is going to attack. ➡️ This will inflict significant casualties on some of the United States most elite forces. THE BOTTOM LINE Larry Johnson’s assessment is blunt and final: this ground invasion is nothing more than a show of force that will turn America’s best troops into sitting ducks with no path to lasting success or control of the strait. America is about to learn the hard way what happens when you underestimate Iran. #USGroundInvasion #StraitOfHormuz #LarryJohnson #HormuzTrap #EliteForcesAtRisk #IranWar #DoomedOperation

LARRY JOHNSON PREDICTS: US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND Ex CIA Larry Johnson cuts through the noise with a chilling assessment based on troop movements and force deployments right now. Trump has not backed down out of fear. He is simply playing the same games he has played before to lull the Iranians into complacency. A major ground attack is coming fast, and it is aimed straight at the heart of the Strait of Hormuz. THE INVASION TIMELINE ➡️ The United States will launch a ground attack this weekend. ➡️ If bad weather hits, it may be pushed back until Monday or Tuesday. ➡️ If the weather clears, expect it sometime Friday or Saturday. THE TARGETS SELECTED ➡️ They will attack either Car Island or Keshum Island. ➡️ Car Island is one of the most important gas production sites for the Iranians. THE DEPLOYMENT DETAILS ➡️ Massive special operation assets have already been poured into the region. ➡️ Right now they are deployed in Israel and Jordan. ➡️ They will be forward deployed prior to the operation to Aluded Air Force Base in Qatar or possibly Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia. ➡️ Aluded would be the more likely location. THE STATED MISSION ➡️ The attack is ostensibly to open the Strait of Hormuz. THE INEVITABLE FAILURE ➡️ It will fail. ➡️ They may actually take control of Keshum Island. ➡️ But then what? ➡️ Iran still has drones, submarines, underwater drones that are maneuverable, and missiles in the cliffs that line the strait. ➡️ The United States is not sending enough military force to actually open the strait and keep it open. THE DEADLY CONSEQUENCE ➡️ What they are creating is a big fat target that Iran is going to attack. ➡️ This will inflict significant casualties on some of the United States most elite forces. THE BOTTOM LINE Larry Johnson’s assessment is blunt and final: this ground invasion is nothing more than a show of force that will turn America’s best troops into sitting ducks with no path to lasting success or control of the strait. America is about to learn the hard way what happens when you underestimate Iran. #USGroundInvasion #StraitOfHormuz #LarryJohnson #HormuzTrap #EliteForcesAtRisk #IranWar #DoomedOperation

Mark

175,776 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

THE FOURTH CENTER OF WORLD POWER EMERGES: PAPE'S PREDICTION COMES TRUE IN REAL TIME Professor Robert Pape has delivered a clear-eyed assessment of the Iran war now past day 100. What began as a fight for survival has shifted into something far more ambitious and dangerous. Iran is no longer reacting. It is actively reshaping the region while American influence erodes in real time. The consequences for global power and economic stability are only beginning to register. THE CORE THESIS: IRAN FROM SURVIVAL TO AMBITION ➡️ Iran has moved from survival to ambition in the middle game of this conflict. ➡️ The regime is no longer focused only on protecting itself inside Tehran. ➡️ A new security belt of resistance now runs from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea. ➡️ Iran is using this architecture to pressure Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain to remove American forces from their territory. ➡️ Strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut triggered immediate Iranian threats against Israel as part of enforcing new red lines. THE TRUMP CONTROL COLLAPSE ➡️ President Trump still speaks and acts as if America remains the dominant power in full control. ➡️ Iran is simply ignoring his calls for negotiations and has publicly laid out its own demands without hesitation. ➡️ Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took Trump's calls but then defied his direct order not to retaliate. ➡️ For 72 days Trump has claimed a deal with Iran is only days away yet nothing has changed. ➡️ His optimistic rhetoric has lost all connection to reality because America has lost ground as Iran has gained it. THE EMERGENCE OF THE FOURTH WORLD POWER ➡️ Pape warned months ago that Iran was on track to become the fourth center of world power as the dominant state in the Gulf. ➡️ This status means building a genuine sphere of influence where Iran protects and coordinates with allies rather than treating them as expendable. ➡️ The old view of groups like Hezbollah as mere pawns has been reversed by Iran's growing strength. ➡️ Recent Iranian actions have already forced the United States to pressure Israel to pull back. ➡️ This new position will strengthen further when the coming economic crisis hits world markets later this summer. THE MIDDLE GAME THAT LIES AHEAD ➡️ This phase of ambition and escalation will run through the summer and deep into the fall midterms. ➡️ Iran sees clear opportunities to exploit political timelines in both the United States and Israel. ➡️ A major disruption to the global economy driven by regional instability now appears almost locked in. ➡️ Hopes of wrapping the conflict up neatly by Labor Day for domestic political reasons do not match Iran's strategic thinking. THE WEAKENING OF ISRAEL ➡️ Israel's freedom of action is beginning to shrink as its main backer loses strategic ground in the region. ➡️ Iranian-backed forces are showing early signs of more coordinated and sophisticated drone and missile operations. ➡️ The recent expansion of Houthi threats against Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea marks a widening of the conflict theater. ➡️ Over time the combination of reduced American support and rising proxy capabilities will place Israel under growing pressure. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape makes the stakes unmistakable. Iran has flipped from a strategy of pure survival into one of expanding ambition and the United States has lost the control it once took for granted. This is the sound of a new center of world power rising while old assumptions fall apart. HT: YouTube Breaking Points #IranWar #FourthWorldPower #AxisOfResistance #TrumpLosingControl #MiddleGame #SecurityBelt #PapeAnalysis

THE FOURTH CENTER OF WORLD POWER EMERGES: PAPE'S PREDICTION COMES TRUE IN REAL TIME Professor Robert Pape has delivered a clear-eyed assessment of the Iran war now past day 100. What began as a fight for survival has shifted into something far more ambitious and dangerous. Iran is no longer reacting. It is actively reshaping the region while American influence erodes in real time. The consequences for global power and economic stability are only beginning to register. THE CORE THESIS: IRAN FROM SURVIVAL TO AMBITION ➡️ Iran has moved from survival to ambition in the middle game of this conflict. ➡️ The regime is no longer focused only on protecting itself inside Tehran. ➡️ A new security belt of resistance now runs from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea. ➡️ Iran is using this architecture to pressure Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain to remove American forces from their territory. ➡️ Strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut triggered immediate Iranian threats against Israel as part of enforcing new red lines. THE TRUMP CONTROL COLLAPSE ➡️ President Trump still speaks and acts as if America remains the dominant power in full control. ➡️ Iran is simply ignoring his calls for negotiations and has publicly laid out its own demands without hesitation. ➡️ Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took Trump's calls but then defied his direct order not to retaliate. ➡️ For 72 days Trump has claimed a deal with Iran is only days away yet nothing has changed. ➡️ His optimistic rhetoric has lost all connection to reality because America has lost ground as Iran has gained it. THE EMERGENCE OF THE FOURTH WORLD POWER ➡️ Pape warned months ago that Iran was on track to become the fourth center of world power as the dominant state in the Gulf. ➡️ This status means building a genuine sphere of influence where Iran protects and coordinates with allies rather than treating them as expendable. ➡️ The old view of groups like Hezbollah as mere pawns has been reversed by Iran's growing strength. ➡️ Recent Iranian actions have already forced the United States to pressure Israel to pull back. ➡️ This new position will strengthen further when the coming economic crisis hits world markets later this summer. THE MIDDLE GAME THAT LIES AHEAD ➡️ This phase of ambition and escalation will run through the summer and deep into the fall midterms. ➡️ Iran sees clear opportunities to exploit political timelines in both the United States and Israel. ➡️ A major disruption to the global economy driven by regional instability now appears almost locked in. ➡️ Hopes of wrapping the conflict up neatly by Labor Day for domestic political reasons do not match Iran's strategic thinking. THE WEAKENING OF ISRAEL ➡️ Israel's freedom of action is beginning to shrink as its main backer loses strategic ground in the region. ➡️ Iranian-backed forces are showing early signs of more coordinated and sophisticated drone and missile operations. ➡️ The recent expansion of Houthi threats against Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea marks a widening of the conflict theater. ➡️ Over time the combination of reduced American support and rising proxy capabilities will place Israel under growing pressure. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape makes the stakes unmistakable. Iran has flipped from a strategy of pure survival into one of expanding ambition and the United States has lost the control it once took for granted. This is the sound of a new center of world power rising while old assumptions fall apart. HT: YouTube Breaking Points #IranWar #FourthWorldPower #AxisOfResistance #TrumpLosingControl #MiddleGame #SecurityBelt #PapeAnalysis

Mark

15,618 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms

Mark

26,328 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

Mark

20,090 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

A Canadian tourist visiting India has following observations about India, There are many things we have which are not anymore in West We Indians should value things which the west is desperate to have, here are his observations ➡️ India feels unsafe when focusing on roads and footpaths, generally speaking. ➡He feels safer India than his home country, Canada. ➡️Indian society seems unpredictable and chaotic, but is actually quite orderly. ➡️There's a social rhythm that allows for understanding people's intentions beforehand. Because of this, India rarely "feels like a gamble." ➡️ The speaker doesn't have the same feeling back home; everything feels random (attacks, violence, confrontations). ➡️ Examples of Western unpredictable danger include: a wild person attacking out of nowhere, a drug dealer trying something, or a mentally ill person with a knife. ➡️Western society is individualistic and people are "untethered" (not connected to community or family), which is dangerous as they are more likely to "snap." ➡️ In the West, you are "one wrong small event away from violence. ➡️ In India, most people have an unspoken understanding or "social bond. ➡️ Society in India is interconnected, which provides a baseline for safety. ➡️ People in India care about their neighbors and are aware of what's happening. ➡️ In the West, there's less petty stuff, but the dangers are more unpredictable, like going from learning the alphabet one day to running from an AR-15 the next.

A Canadian tourist visiting India has following observations about India, There are many things we have which are not anymore in West We Indians should value things which the west is desperate to have, here are his observations ➡️ India feels unsafe when focusing on roads and footpaths, generally speaking. ➡He feels safer India than his home country, Canada. ➡️Indian society seems unpredictable and chaotic, but is actually quite orderly. ➡️There's a social rhythm that allows for understanding people's intentions beforehand. Because of this, India rarely "feels like a gamble." ➡️ The speaker doesn't have the same feeling back home; everything feels random (attacks, violence, confrontations). ➡️ Examples of Western unpredictable danger include: a wild person attacking out of nowhere, a drug dealer trying something, or a mentally ill person with a knife. ➡️Western society is individualistic and people are "untethered" (not connected to community or family), which is dangerous as they are more likely to "snap." ➡️ In the West, you are "one wrong small event away from violence. ➡️ In India, most people have an unspoken understanding or "social bond. ➡️ Society in India is interconnected, which provides a baseline for safety. ➡️ People in India care about their neighbors and are aware of what's happening. ➡️ In the West, there's less petty stuff, but the dangers are more unpredictable, like going from learning the alphabet one day to running from an AR-15 the next.

Woke Eminent

213,060 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

ZERO CONTACT, ZERO AGREEMENT: TEHRAN UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR DESTROYS TRUMP'S NARRATIVE Professor Mohammad Marandi of Tehran University just delivered a clear, unfiltered assessment that shreds the latest wave of American claims. No phone calls. No begging. No secret talks. And absolute Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz remains non-negotiable. THE FAKE NEWS MACHINE ➡️ Trump repeatedly claims Middle Eastern leaders and even Iran are calling him, pleading not to attack. ➡️ Marandi states flatly there has been zero communication between Iran and the United States. ➡️ This is not the first time. Trump has made the same false claim so often it has become boring. ➡️ His own supporters keep following anyway, but the facts on the ground never change. HORMUZ REMAINS UNDER FULL IRANIAN CONTROL ➡️ Negotiations with Oman exist only about managing the strait. ➡️ Iran has made its position crystal clear: full supervision over every ship that wants to pass. ➡️ There will be no two corridors. Oman cannot operate any route without Iranian knowledge. ➡️ Every vessel must receive Iranian consent and will pay a fee. ➡️ The entire strait from beginning to end stays fully monitored and controlled by Iran. NO AGREEMENT ON THE TABLE ➡️ Iran will not accept the old nuclear deal in its previous form. ➡️ Demands now include the end of the siege on Yemen, resolution on Gaza, and the release of Iran’s frozen assets. ➡️ Iran will not concede any authority over the Strait of Hormuz under any arrangement with Oman or anyone else. ➡️ There is no ceasefire. Iran continues to strike threats wherever they appear. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump can issue threats every few days and invent stories of desperate phone calls. The reality delivered by Professor Marandi is simpler and far more powerful: Iran never begged, never negotiated under pressure, and will never surrender control of Hormuz. This is the sound of a narrative collapsing in real time. #HormuzControl #TrumpFakeNews #NoAgreement #MarandiTruth #IranStance #StraitOfHormuz #ZeroContact HT: YouTube Dialogue Works Dialogue works

ZERO CONTACT, ZERO AGREEMENT: TEHRAN UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR DESTROYS TRUMP'S NARRATIVE Professor Mohammad Marandi of Tehran University just delivered a clear, unfiltered assessment that shreds the latest wave of American claims. No phone calls. No begging. No secret talks. And absolute Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz remains non-negotiable. THE FAKE NEWS MACHINE ➡️ Trump repeatedly claims Middle Eastern leaders and even Iran are calling him, pleading not to attack. ➡️ Marandi states flatly there has been zero communication between Iran and the United States. ➡️ This is not the first time. Trump has made the same false claim so often it has become boring. ➡️ His own supporters keep following anyway, but the facts on the ground never change. HORMUZ REMAINS UNDER FULL IRANIAN CONTROL ➡️ Negotiations with Oman exist only about managing the strait. ➡️ Iran has made its position crystal clear: full supervision over every ship that wants to pass. ➡️ There will be no two corridors. Oman cannot operate any route without Iranian knowledge. ➡️ Every vessel must receive Iranian consent and will pay a fee. ➡️ The entire strait from beginning to end stays fully monitored and controlled by Iran. NO AGREEMENT ON THE TABLE ➡️ Iran will not accept the old nuclear deal in its previous form. ➡️ Demands now include the end of the siege on Yemen, resolution on Gaza, and the release of Iran’s frozen assets. ➡️ Iran will not concede any authority over the Strait of Hormuz under any arrangement with Oman or anyone else. ➡️ There is no ceasefire. Iran continues to strike threats wherever they appear. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump can issue threats every few days and invent stories of desperate phone calls. The reality delivered by Professor Marandi is simpler and far more powerful: Iran never begged, never negotiated under pressure, and will never surrender control of Hormuz. This is the sound of a narrative collapsing in real time. #HormuzControl #TrumpFakeNews #NoAgreement #MarandiTruth #IranStance #StraitOfHormuz #ZeroContact HT: YouTube Dialogue Works Dialogue works

Mark

72,702 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal

Mark

13,357 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

NULAND EXPOSED IN TORONTO: MEARSHEIMER REVEALS THE UKRAINE DISASTER'S TRUE CAUSE In "TheMonkDebates", John Mearsheimer delivered a masterclass in realism that left Victoria Nuland's entire narrative in ruins. While she spun tales of a defensive NATO and a power-hungry Putin with no limits, Mearsheimer laid out the cold facts: NATO expansion into Ukraine was the spark, and Western interference turned a manageable crisis into a preventable catastrophe. The audience watched a live demolition of neoconservative fantasy. THE NATO EXPANSION TRUTH BOMB ➡️ Mearsheimer reminded everyone that great powers have red lines, just as America does with the Monroe Doctrine and Cuba in 1962. ➡️ Russia warned for years that NATO in Ukraine was an existential threat. ➡️ The West ignored every signal and kept pushing eastward anyway. NULAND'S FAILED NEGOTIATIONS EXPOSED ➡️ Nuland claimed Ukraine was ready to pause NATO dreams but Putin demanded total control. ➡️ Mearsheimer countered with the real record: Putin sent negotiators to Istanbul in the first weeks because he wanted limited goals, not conquest of all Ukraine. ➡️ It was the United States and Boris Johnson who ordered Zelensky to walk away from that deal. ➡️ That single decision prolonged the slaughter and locked Ukraine into permanent destruction. THE MONSTER MYTH VS HARD REALITY ➡️ Nuland painted Putin as an unrestrained empire restorer who would never stop. ➡️ Mearsheimer showed the actual war aims were narrow: block NATO membership and protect Russia's core security interests. ➡️ Hundreds of thousands dead later, the body count proves who was right about the limits of force. THE HUMAN COST OF NULAND'S DELUSIONS ➡️ Ukraine has already lost at least one-fifth of its territory. ➡️ It now faces a future as a dysfunctional rump state bleeding people and treasure. ➡️ All of it traceable to the refusal to treat Russia like the great power it is. THE BOTTOM LINE Victoria Nuland helped architect a war that Mearsheimer accurately predicted years in advance, and her refusal to admit the role of NATO expansion has cost Ukraine everything while proving the realist case beyond any doubt. This is what happens when ideology collides with reality and reality wins. #Mearsheimer #NulandExposed #UkraineWarTruth #NATOExpansion #RealismWins #PreventableCatastrophe #StopTheLies

NULAND EXPOSED IN TORONTO: MEARSHEIMER REVEALS THE UKRAINE DISASTER'S TRUE CAUSE In "TheMonkDebates", John Mearsheimer delivered a masterclass in realism that left Victoria Nuland's entire narrative in ruins. While she spun tales of a defensive NATO and a power-hungry Putin with no limits, Mearsheimer laid out the cold facts: NATO expansion into Ukraine was the spark, and Western interference turned a manageable crisis into a preventable catastrophe. The audience watched a live demolition of neoconservative fantasy. THE NATO EXPANSION TRUTH BOMB ➡️ Mearsheimer reminded everyone that great powers have red lines, just as America does with the Monroe Doctrine and Cuba in 1962. ➡️ Russia warned for years that NATO in Ukraine was an existential threat. ➡️ The West ignored every signal and kept pushing eastward anyway. NULAND'S FAILED NEGOTIATIONS EXPOSED ➡️ Nuland claimed Ukraine was ready to pause NATO dreams but Putin demanded total control. ➡️ Mearsheimer countered with the real record: Putin sent negotiators to Istanbul in the first weeks because he wanted limited goals, not conquest of all Ukraine. ➡️ It was the United States and Boris Johnson who ordered Zelensky to walk away from that deal. ➡️ That single decision prolonged the slaughter and locked Ukraine into permanent destruction. THE MONSTER MYTH VS HARD REALITY ➡️ Nuland painted Putin as an unrestrained empire restorer who would never stop. ➡️ Mearsheimer showed the actual war aims were narrow: block NATO membership and protect Russia's core security interests. ➡️ Hundreds of thousands dead later, the body count proves who was right about the limits of force. THE HUMAN COST OF NULAND'S DELUSIONS ➡️ Ukraine has already lost at least one-fifth of its territory. ➡️ It now faces a future as a dysfunctional rump state bleeding people and treasure. ➡️ All of it traceable to the refusal to treat Russia like the great power it is. THE BOTTOM LINE Victoria Nuland helped architect a war that Mearsheimer accurately predicted years in advance, and her refusal to admit the role of NATO expansion has cost Ukraine everything while proving the realist case beyond any doubt. This is what happens when ideology collides with reality and reality wins. #Mearsheimer #NulandExposed #UkraineWarTruth #NATOExpansion #RealismWins #PreventableCatastrophe #StopTheLies

Mark

33,629 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

AMERICA'S IRAN HUMILIATION: THE LESSON THAT EMPOWERS CHINA AND BRICS FOREVER Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke delivers a blunt assessment of the Iran conflict. What was long treated as unchallengeable American military power has been exposed as brittle and limited. The consequences reach far beyond the region and are already strengthening the rising influence of BRICS. THE SHREDDED US STANDING ➡️ This war is shredding the standing of the US military presence. ➡️ It was thought to be invulnerable, unable to be contested or attacked. That has all been proved wrong. ➡️ American military structures have their arches healed. They do not have enough defense weapons. They do not have enough wherewithal to launch a major war. ➡️ They are not doing very well even with a localized war and are making mistakes. THE FIFTH FLEET HOSTAGE ➡️ In 1979 the embassy hostages brought down an American administration. There are no students in an embassy now. There is the Fifth Fleet. ➡️ Where is that? Of Bahrain. That is quite a big hostage. ➡️ Effectively the Fifth Fleet is an Iranian hostage. ➡️ Someone in the White House needs to wise up and get out of this quite quickly. Otherwise it becomes a complete catastrophe for the United States, for its image and for its presence in the world. It will be a humiliation. THE TWO CHOICES ➡️ One path is climbing down from the tree. Psychologically that may prove impossible. ➡️ The other is all-out war. That will finish the standing of the United States as a serious political player or serious military power. ➡️ People will have learned from the Iranian experience exactly how to deal with the United States. THE LESSONS THAT STICK ➡️ The first lesson is to trust in nothing. Nothing said, nothing written, nothing. ➡️ Young people on the streets of Iran ask why anyone is negotiating. He will say one thing one moment and pull it back the next. There is no point talking to a person like that. Forget it. We do not need to deal with the United States. ➡️ The second lesson is clearer still. If you punch the United States in the face, they cannot deal with those blows. They cannot stop them. They are more vulnerable than people thought. THE BRICS BOOST ➡️ This strengthens the BRICS because they can see a weakening America. ➡️ If America has failed to subordinate Iran and reduce it to a vassal, it will not succeed with Russia or China. ➡️ Those states will take strong encouragement from Iran winning the war. ➡️ It will increase China’s insistence on a close relationship with Iran to secure energy supplies. ➡️ China already views the entire process as an attempt to put it under siege by squeezing its energy routes. THE BOTTOM LINE The order that existed before this war is gone forever. Iran has emerged stronger. American military standing has been shredded in public. BRICS powers are drawing the direct conclusion that US dominance is no longer unchallengeable. This is the sound of multipolar power rising while American control slips away. #BRICSRise #IranVictory #USHumiliation #FifthFleetHostage #AlastairCrooke #AmericanDecline #MultipolarWorld HT: YouTube Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

AMERICA'S IRAN HUMILIATION: THE LESSON THAT EMPOWERS CHINA AND BRICS FOREVER Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke delivers a blunt assessment of the Iran conflict. What was long treated as unchallengeable American military power has been exposed as brittle and limited. The consequences reach far beyond the region and are already strengthening the rising influence of BRICS. THE SHREDDED US STANDING ➡️ This war is shredding the standing of the US military presence. ➡️ It was thought to be invulnerable, unable to be contested or attacked. That has all been proved wrong. ➡️ American military structures have their arches healed. They do not have enough defense weapons. They do not have enough wherewithal to launch a major war. ➡️ They are not doing very well even with a localized war and are making mistakes. THE FIFTH FLEET HOSTAGE ➡️ In 1979 the embassy hostages brought down an American administration. There are no students in an embassy now. There is the Fifth Fleet. ➡️ Where is that? Of Bahrain. That is quite a big hostage. ➡️ Effectively the Fifth Fleet is an Iranian hostage. ➡️ Someone in the White House needs to wise up and get out of this quite quickly. Otherwise it becomes a complete catastrophe for the United States, for its image and for its presence in the world. It will be a humiliation. THE TWO CHOICES ➡️ One path is climbing down from the tree. Psychologically that may prove impossible. ➡️ The other is all-out war. That will finish the standing of the United States as a serious political player or serious military power. ➡️ People will have learned from the Iranian experience exactly how to deal with the United States. THE LESSONS THAT STICK ➡️ The first lesson is to trust in nothing. Nothing said, nothing written, nothing. ➡️ Young people on the streets of Iran ask why anyone is negotiating. He will say one thing one moment and pull it back the next. There is no point talking to a person like that. Forget it. We do not need to deal with the United States. ➡️ The second lesson is clearer still. If you punch the United States in the face, they cannot deal with those blows. They cannot stop them. They are more vulnerable than people thought. THE BRICS BOOST ➡️ This strengthens the BRICS because they can see a weakening America. ➡️ If America has failed to subordinate Iran and reduce it to a vassal, it will not succeed with Russia or China. ➡️ Those states will take strong encouragement from Iran winning the war. ➡️ It will increase China’s insistence on a close relationship with Iran to secure energy supplies. ➡️ China already views the entire process as an attempt to put it under siege by squeezing its energy routes. THE BOTTOM LINE The order that existed before this war is gone forever. Iran has emerged stronger. American military standing has been shredded in public. BRICS powers are drawing the direct conclusion that US dominance is no longer unchallengeable. This is the sound of multipolar power rising while American control slips away. #BRICSRise #IranVictory #USHumiliation #FifthFleetHostage #AlastairCrooke #AmericanDecline #MultipolarWorld HT: YouTube Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

Mark

18,591 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

ERIC NUTTAL: DAY 55 OIL CRISIS EXPLODES - 600 MILLION BARRELS GONE WHILE STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS Day 55 of the US-Iranian war and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The world has lost roughly 600 million barrels of oil supply at a staggering 12 to 13 million barrels per day and the damage keeps getting worse. Goldman Sachs just released a graph confirming global inventories will plunge well below record lows even if the strait opens tomorrow. THE DAMAGE IS ALREADY DONE ➡️ Multiple independent sources now triangulate the exact same catastrophic supply loss. ➡️ Voyage times mean the pain is locked in regardless of any sudden breakthrough. ➡️ This is the biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes playing out in real time. THE MARKET DISCONNECT ➡️ The Dow and S&P trade at or near all-time highs. ➡️ Everyone watching CNBC or Bloomberg terminals sees oil prices that still ignore reality. ➡️ Physical barrels face enormous demand while paper markets stay strangely calm. THE COMPLACENCY EXPLAINED ➡️ White House advisers are thrilled at how well tweets and unnamed sources have jawboned oil prices lower. ➡️ A single random rumor can crash paper oil five dollars in a day. ➡️ The second and bigger reason is simple: markets are waiting for physical shortages they cannot ignore. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGE WAVE ➡️ Australia’s prime minister just held a press conference to announce they secured new supply equal to one single day of demand. ➡️ Parts of Africa can no longer afford to bid for barrels in the global battle underway. ➡️ Europe is running out of jet fuel with major airlines already canceling flights. THE US REALITY CHECK ➡️ Safety buffers and vessel inventories have now been completely exhausted. ➡️ Seasonal driving demand is just beginning its uptick. ➡️ The battle for every barrel is now hitting Cushing, jet fuel tanks, and gasoline stocks. THE PRICE BREAKING POINT ➡️ To balance the market without massive inventory draws you need meaningful demand reduction. ➡️ Historically that only happens above $175 per barrel. ➡️ Anything less and the physical shortage simply cannot be resolved. THE INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY ➡️ Current complacency in energy stocks creates one of the most attractive setups in years. ➡️ Quality US oil companies with market caps from 10 to 35 billion dollars now trade at 17 to 21 percent free cash flow yields using an $80 oil price. ➡️ The long-term floor is heading to $80 while 2027 futures sit absurdly at just $72. THE BOTTOM LINE The biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes is here yet markets remain asleep thanks to jawboning and the wait for physical pain. Physical shortages will force reality into prices faster than anyone expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #PhysicalBarrels #OilTo175 #EnergyInvesting #DemandDestruction

ERIC NUTTAL: DAY 55 OIL CRISIS EXPLODES - 600 MILLION BARRELS GONE WHILE STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS Day 55 of the US-Iranian war and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The world has lost roughly 600 million barrels of oil supply at a staggering 12 to 13 million barrels per day and the damage keeps getting worse. Goldman Sachs just released a graph confirming global inventories will plunge well below record lows even if the strait opens tomorrow. THE DAMAGE IS ALREADY DONE ➡️ Multiple independent sources now triangulate the exact same catastrophic supply loss. ➡️ Voyage times mean the pain is locked in regardless of any sudden breakthrough. ➡️ This is the biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes playing out in real time. THE MARKET DISCONNECT ➡️ The Dow and S&P trade at or near all-time highs. ➡️ Everyone watching CNBC or Bloomberg terminals sees oil prices that still ignore reality. ➡️ Physical barrels face enormous demand while paper markets stay strangely calm. THE COMPLACENCY EXPLAINED ➡️ White House advisers are thrilled at how well tweets and unnamed sources have jawboned oil prices lower. ➡️ A single random rumor can crash paper oil five dollars in a day. ➡️ The second and bigger reason is simple: markets are waiting for physical shortages they cannot ignore. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGE WAVE ➡️ Australia’s prime minister just held a press conference to announce they secured new supply equal to one single day of demand. ➡️ Parts of Africa can no longer afford to bid for barrels in the global battle underway. ➡️ Europe is running out of jet fuel with major airlines already canceling flights. THE US REALITY CHECK ➡️ Safety buffers and vessel inventories have now been completely exhausted. ➡️ Seasonal driving demand is just beginning its uptick. ➡️ The battle for every barrel is now hitting Cushing, jet fuel tanks, and gasoline stocks. THE PRICE BREAKING POINT ➡️ To balance the market without massive inventory draws you need meaningful demand reduction. ➡️ Historically that only happens above $175 per barrel. ➡️ Anything less and the physical shortage simply cannot be resolved. THE INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY ➡️ Current complacency in energy stocks creates one of the most attractive setups in years. ➡️ Quality US oil companies with market caps from 10 to 35 billion dollars now trade at 17 to 21 percent free cash flow yields using an $80 oil price. ➡️ The long-term floor is heading to $80 while 2027 futures sit absurdly at just $72. THE BOTTOM LINE The biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes is here yet markets remain asleep thanks to jawboning and the wait for physical pain. Physical shortages will force reality into prices faster than anyone expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #PhysicalBarrels #OilTo175 #EnergyInvesting #DemandDestruction

Mark

10,862 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

LUKE GROMEN: GOLD TO RUN THE US TRADE DEFICIT – $10K-$20K+ AHEAD? Macro strategist Luke Gromen drops a mind-bending take: the US isn't just exporting gold randomly—it's de facto settling massive trade deficits with physical gold flows. This could force gold prices way higher, paving the way for an official revaluation to tackle the debt mountain. THE GOLD EXPORT PARADOX – STRATEGY, NOT WEAKNESS ➡️ Gromen says recent US gold exports don't kill the revaluation idea—they actually make it possible. ➡️ The trade deficit is enormous and nobody else wants to keep financing it forever. ➡️ Gold flows out to settle parts of it, letting the market bid the price up naturally. HOW GOLD STARTS "RUNNING" THE DEFICIT ➡️ No paper market alone can absorb deficits this size anymore. ➡️ Gold becomes the neutral settlement asset when the price rises high enough. ➡️ "Gold is going to run the deficits... rather than the US running the deficits." THE PRICE LEVELS REQUIRED FOR THIS SHIFT ➡️ $5,000 gold is far too low to handle the volume needed. ➡️ Real settlement power requires $10,000, $15,000 or even $20,000+ gold. ➡️ "It's not going to happen at $5,000 gold. It's going to need $10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold." THE REVALUATION PLAY THAT FOLLOWS ➡️ Once trade bids gold that high, the US can simply revalue its official holdings. ➡️ One accounting move marks gold to market and creates trillions instantly. ➡️ Treasury Secretary gets huge flexibility to shorten the long end of the curve and strengthen the balance sheet. CHINA'S TREASURY REDUCTION – SMART, NOT DESPERATE ➡️ Cutting Treasuries is not proof of a collapsing Chinese economy. ➡️ Desperate nations sell gold—China keeps aggressively buying it. ➡️ This looks like preparation for a stronger yuan, weaker dollar deal tied to future trade talks. THE BOTTOM LINE Luke Gromen sees America's trade deficits turning into the ultimate bullish driver for gold, quietly forcing a much higher price floor before the US rides the wave to recapitalize its books in one clean move. The old dollar-deficit era ends not with a crash, but with gold quietly taking over the burden. HT: Luke Gromen #Gold #Macro #TradeDeficit #LukeGromen #MonetaryReset #DollarSystem

LUKE GROMEN: GOLD TO RUN THE US TRADE DEFICIT – $10K-$20K+ AHEAD? Macro strategist Luke Gromen drops a mind-bending take: the US isn't just exporting gold randomly—it's de facto settling massive trade deficits with physical gold flows. This could force gold prices way higher, paving the way for an official revaluation to tackle the debt mountain. THE GOLD EXPORT PARADOX – STRATEGY, NOT WEAKNESS ➡️ Gromen says recent US gold exports don't kill the revaluation idea—they actually make it possible. ➡️ The trade deficit is enormous and nobody else wants to keep financing it forever. ➡️ Gold flows out to settle parts of it, letting the market bid the price up naturally. HOW GOLD STARTS "RUNNING" THE DEFICIT ➡️ No paper market alone can absorb deficits this size anymore. ➡️ Gold becomes the neutral settlement asset when the price rises high enough. ➡️ "Gold is going to run the deficits... rather than the US running the deficits." THE PRICE LEVELS REQUIRED FOR THIS SHIFT ➡️ $5,000 gold is far too low to handle the volume needed. ➡️ Real settlement power requires $10,000, $15,000 or even $20,000+ gold. ➡️ "It's not going to happen at $5,000 gold. It's going to need $10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold." THE REVALUATION PLAY THAT FOLLOWS ➡️ Once trade bids gold that high, the US can simply revalue its official holdings. ➡️ One accounting move marks gold to market and creates trillions instantly. ➡️ Treasury Secretary gets huge flexibility to shorten the long end of the curve and strengthen the balance sheet. CHINA'S TREASURY REDUCTION – SMART, NOT DESPERATE ➡️ Cutting Treasuries is not proof of a collapsing Chinese economy. ➡️ Desperate nations sell gold—China keeps aggressively buying it. ➡️ This looks like preparation for a stronger yuan, weaker dollar deal tied to future trade talks. THE BOTTOM LINE Luke Gromen sees America's trade deficits turning into the ultimate bullish driver for gold, quietly forcing a much higher price floor before the US rides the wave to recapitalize its books in one clean move. The old dollar-deficit era ends not with a crash, but with gold quietly taking over the burden. HT: Luke Gromen #Gold #Macro #TradeDeficit #LukeGromen #MonetaryReset #DollarSystem

Mark

168,466 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten