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Medvedev and Peskov started making assurances that there will be no mobilization in Russia and Russia is not preparing for one. Very recently, I wrote that one of the reasons for restricting the internet and social media in Russia is preparation for mobilization. Yes, there is an anti-drone logic... behind it, but it seems much more like part of a stricter mobilization model: first, the Russian state suppresses communications and limits access to keep people within a controlled digital environment, and only afterward will it conduct a new wave of mobilization with less chaos and less room for resistance. Russia is preparing for a larger war and a broader mobilization. For the process to go smoothly, the regime needs to reduce information leaks, make summonses digital and unavoidable, and narrow the space for evasion and escape. That's why Russia has already launched electronic summonses - to make it harder for men to avoid conscription. We don't know exactly where the Kremlin will deploy the next wave of cannon fodder. But we do know that Putin is already expanding the army to 1.5 million active personnel, and the Kremlin has openly justified this by citing threats on the Western flank and the need to create new structures in the northwest.show more

Anton Gerashchenko

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HODGES: Momentum of this war has changed. Kremlin sees it, and now looking at what their options are. How do they change narrative and momentum? Peskov acknowledged that Russia is at war, so they are preparing Russian population for something else, like full-scale mobilization. Kremlin closed the borders to the west with Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania, and to the east with Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. They are doing this in order to keep people in who might want to leave to avoid mass mobilization. This is something we should be watching.

HODGES: Momentum of this war has changed. Kremlin sees it, and now looking at what their options are. How do they change narrative and momentum? Peskov acknowledged that Russia is at war, so they are preparing Russian population for something else, like full-scale mobilization. Kremlin closed the borders to the west with Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania, and to the east with Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. They are doing this in order to keep people in who might want to leave to avoid mass mobilization. This is something we should be watching.

Kate from Kharkiv

20,052 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

Mobile internet in Russia is becoming increasingly restricted. This is happening even in major cities - Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Social media platforms are being shut down, and Telegram is being slowed. Russians are being pushed onto the state-controlled platform MAX, which is under full government control. Why is the Kremlin lowering an iron curtain now? There are no mass protests, the opposition is silent, and everything remains strictly controlled. One possible reason why Russia is now building a digital concentration camp and restricting the internet is a future mobilization. Through the war in Iran, Russia has received extra oil revenue and feels more confident. But it understands that this situation may change. Russia also has no significant successes on the front. Each month, Ukrainians continue to kill increasing numbers of Russian soldiers. To replenish cannon fodder, it is highly likely that Putin may take the unpopular decision to start a mobilization. As a result, emigration sentiments are already increasing in Russia, because Russians have a fair sense that the iron curtain will be lowered completely. Europe must be extremely vigilant and strengthen border controls, as many Wagner mercenaries, FSB agents, and sleeper cells may attempt to enter. And in general, this rule always applies: the more oil money Russia has, the more it wants to wage war. 📹: Russians are making comical Reels about the lack of internet.

Mobile internet in Russia is becoming increasingly restricted. This is happening even in major cities - Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Social media platforms are being shut down, and Telegram is being slowed. Russians are being pushed onto the state-controlled platform MAX, which is under full government control. Why is the Kremlin lowering an iron curtain now? There are no mass protests, the opposition is silent, and everything remains strictly controlled. One possible reason why Russia is now building a digital concentration camp and restricting the internet is a future mobilization. Through the war in Iran, Russia has received extra oil revenue and feels more confident. But it understands that this situation may change. Russia also has no significant successes on the front. Each month, Ukrainians continue to kill increasing numbers of Russian soldiers. To replenish cannon fodder, it is highly likely that Putin may take the unpopular decision to start a mobilization. As a result, emigration sentiments are already increasing in Russia, because Russians have a fair sense that the iron curtain will be lowered completely. Europe must be extremely vigilant and strengthen border controls, as many Wagner mercenaries, FSB agents, and sleeper cells may attempt to enter. And in general, this rule always applies: the more oil money Russia has, the more it wants to wage war. 📹: Russians are making comical Reels about the lack of internet.

Anton Gerashchenko

778,948 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

We have comprehensive intelligence reports on Russia’s plans for the fall. Putin is preparing the conditions for expanding mobilization. His casualty figures speak for themselves. In less than seven months this year, 221,000 people have joined the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces. During the same period, Russian casualties have amounted to nearly 225,500, among them 131,000 killed and almost 93,000 wounded. A significant share of those wounds are severe, as frontline medical care in Russia is catastrophically poor. Putin is preparing to simply send more Russians to war. He disguises it with different words and signals, but that is what he is preparing to do. It is crucial that, together with our partners, we exert enough pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending this aggression becomes the dominant one – the idea of peace, not of another Russian mobilization.

We have comprehensive intelligence reports on Russia’s plans for the fall. Putin is preparing the conditions for expanding mobilization. His casualty figures speak for themselves. In less than seven months this year, 221,000 people have joined the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces. During the same period, Russian casualties have amounted to nearly 225,500, among them 131,000 killed and almost 93,000 wounded. A significant share of those wounds are severe, as frontline medical care in Russia is catastrophically poor. Putin is preparing to simply send more Russians to war. He disguises it with different words and signals, but that is what he is preparing to do. It is crucial that, together with our partners, we exert enough pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending this aggression becomes the dominant one – the idea of peace, not of another Russian mobilization.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський

917,880 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

It looks like Russia is ramping up covert mobilization: Reports are emerging from several Russian regions about raids conducted by military enlistment offices and police, involving document checks and the detention of draft-age men directly on the streets. Eyewitnesses describe dragnets and people being forcibly taken to enlistment centers. For now, it is an attempt to find working models and gauge public sentiment. However, mobilization is inevitable: for the fifth consecutive month, Russian army casualties have outpaced recruitment rates. Very soon, mobilization could affect every draft-age man in Russia. The average lifespan of a Russian assault soldier is about one week. For those who do not want to become Putin's assault fodder, there is still an opportunity to save their lives and leave Russia. For those who have already signed a contract, it is worth remembering that surrendering is one of the few chances to survive. This can be done by contacting "I Want to Live" (Khochu Zhit), the unified center for receiving applications for the voluntary surrender of Russian Armed Forces personnel.

It looks like Russia is ramping up covert mobilization: Reports are emerging from several Russian regions about raids conducted by military enlistment offices and police, involving document checks and the detention of draft-age men directly on the streets. Eyewitnesses describe dragnets and people being forcibly taken to enlistment centers. For now, it is an attempt to find working models and gauge public sentiment. However, mobilization is inevitable: for the fifth consecutive month, Russian army casualties have outpaced recruitment rates. Very soon, mobilization could affect every draft-age man in Russia. The average lifespan of a Russian assault soldier is about one week. For those who do not want to become Putin's assault fodder, there is still an opportunity to save their lives and leave Russia. For those who have already signed a contract, it is worth remembering that surrendering is one of the few chances to survive. This can be done by contacting "I Want to Live" (Khochu Zhit), the unified center for receiving applications for the voluntary surrender of Russian Armed Forces personnel.

Anton Gerashchenko

692,061 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

When the Kremlin says a firm "no," everyone understands that it means "yes." On top of that, payments for participating in the "SMO" have dropped significantly. In short, there is absolutely no incentive for Russians to die on Ukrainian land by a Ukrainian drone. But the Kremlin has no intention of ending the war. Therefore, the only tool left is a new mobilization, the same "unpopular measure" that Putin has already announced once, after first solemnly swearing that "nothing of the sort would happen." The result: 300,000 Russians sent to their deaths and over a million who fled abroad. Now the situation is repeating itself: losses are exceeding recruitment capabilities, and the issue of mobilization is once again hanging in the air. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War are openly discussing the likelihood of involuntary call-ups in Russia. But the Kremlin remains silent on this issue, broken only by Medvedev and Peskov, who insist that "no mobilization is planned." This raises a simple rhetorical question: when representatives of the KGB system, raised on professional lies, start denying something with particular fervor, doesn't that mean the decision has already been made?

When the Kremlin says a firm "no," everyone understands that it means "yes." On top of that, payments for participating in the "SMO" have dropped significantly. In short, there is absolutely no incentive for Russians to die on Ukrainian land by a Ukrainian drone. But the Kremlin has no intention of ending the war. Therefore, the only tool left is a new mobilization, the same "unpopular measure" that Putin has already announced once, after first solemnly swearing that "nothing of the sort would happen." The result: 300,000 Russians sent to their deaths and over a million who fled abroad. Now the situation is repeating itself: losses are exceeding recruitment capabilities, and the issue of mobilization is once again hanging in the air. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War are openly discussing the likelihood of involuntary call-ups in Russia. But the Kremlin remains silent on this issue, broken only by Medvedev and Peskov, who insist that "no mobilization is planned." This raises a simple rhetorical question: when representatives of the KGB system, raised on professional lies, start denying something with particular fervor, doesn't that mean the decision has already been made?

Anton Gerashchenko

166,954 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Restrictions on access to social media in the Russian Federation are not about limiting criticism of Putin. The deeper objective is to prevent unrest. What could trigger unrest in our northern neighbor? First and foremost, large-scale mobilization in Russia – meaning mobilization from major cities, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The restrictions tell us that no one in Russia would accept mobilization at this scale. Today, mobilization in Russia is disguised as contract service. But adding one to one and a half million personnel to the active army would require full mobilization, because recruiting such numbers through contracts is too costly. Why is large-scale mobilization needed? To launch another major offensive against Ukraine. Or option B, which requires lower costs and less effort, is to carry out small simultaneous offensive in areas where smaller combat forces will suffice. From an interview with the "United News" telethon (4/5).

Restrictions on access to social media in the Russian Federation are not about limiting criticism of Putin. The deeper objective is to prevent unrest. What could trigger unrest in our northern neighbor? First and foremost, large-scale mobilization in Russia – meaning mobilization from major cities, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The restrictions tell us that no one in Russia would accept mobilization at this scale. Today, mobilization in Russia is disguised as contract service. But adding one to one and a half million personnel to the active army would require full mobilization, because recruiting such numbers through contracts is too costly. Why is large-scale mobilization needed? To launch another major offensive against Ukraine. Or option B, which requires lower costs and less effort, is to carry out small simultaneous offensive in areas where smaller combat forces will suffice. From an interview with the "United News" telethon (4/5).

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський

77,087 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇦 Russia is preparing for a new mobilization, while Ukraine hopes to achieve peace this autumn According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Kyiv believes that diplomatic efforts, Ukraine's long-range strikes, and sanctions imposed by its allies could increase pressure on Russia to the point where it has no alternative but to seek peace. At the same time, Zelensky said that Putin intends to prolong the war. “He is preparing another mobilization and new strikes. We see Russia's true intentions, we are uniting our partners, and we are increasing pressure on the aggressor,” he said.

🇺🇦 Russia is preparing for a new mobilization, while Ukraine hopes to achieve peace this autumn According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Kyiv believes that diplomatic efforts, Ukraine's long-range strikes, and sanctions imposed by its allies could increase pressure on Russia to the point where it has no alternative but to seek peace. At the same time, Zelensky said that Putin intends to prolong the war. “He is preparing another mobilization and new strikes. We see Russia's true intentions, we are uniting our partners, and we are increasing pressure on the aggressor,” he said.

NEXTA

36,957 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

🤡 Medvedev says there is no need for a new wave of mobilization in Russia He claims that the number of contracted soldiers already recruited is “more than sufficient” to carry out the “objectives of the special military operation.”

🤡 Medvedev says there is no need for a new wave of mobilization in Russia He claims that the number of contracted soldiers already recruited is “more than sufficient” to carry out the “objectives of the special military operation.”

NEXTA

54,503 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Putin: Russia is a war economy under strain. There are not enough people, we reorganize society to continue the war. National projects, education and labor policy serve one goal: societal mobilization [Russia is preparing for a long war and don't want negotiate with Ukraine] 1/

Putin: Russia is a war economy under strain. There are not enough people, we reorganize society to continue the war. National projects, education and labor policy serve one goal: societal mobilization [Russia is preparing for a long war and don't want negotiate with Ukraine] 1/

Tymofiy Mylovanov

775,527 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

❗️❗️❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is preparing for a new phase of the war, including additional military operations and a fresh mobilization effort. According to Zelensky, President Vladimir Putin is “preparing new strikes against Ukraine” while also laying the groundwork for expanding the war through increased mobilization inside Russia. The Ukrainian leader also noted that the United States is currently heavily focused on developments involving Iran, warning that this creates challenges for Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, particularly in the field of anti-ballistic missile defense. Zelensky added that divisions remain within Russia’s leadership. While some officials reportedly recognize the growing economic strain and logistical difficulties caused by the prolonged conflict and would prefer to see it end, others within the military establishment continue to push for escalation, broader mobilization, and a prolonged war in an effort to exhaust Ukraine. He stressed that Ukraine must prepare for the coming winter and remain ready for a potentially intensified Russian campaign. See the latest updates with us: NSTRIKE

❗️❗️❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is preparing for a new phase of the war, including additional military operations and a fresh mobilization effort. According to Zelensky, President Vladimir Putin is “preparing new strikes against Ukraine” while also laying the groundwork for expanding the war through increased mobilization inside Russia. The Ukrainian leader also noted that the United States is currently heavily focused on developments involving Iran, warning that this creates challenges for Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, particularly in the field of anti-ballistic missile defense. Zelensky added that divisions remain within Russia’s leadership. While some officials reportedly recognize the growing economic strain and logistical difficulties caused by the prolonged conflict and would prefer to see it end, others within the military establishment continue to push for escalation, broader mobilization, and a prolonged war in an effort to exhaust Ukraine. He stressed that Ukraine must prepare for the coming winter and remain ready for a potentially intensified Russian campaign. See the latest updates with us: NSTRIKE

NSTRIKE

47,431 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

❗️Bloomberg: The number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has sharply increased in recent weeks (thanks to more effective Ukrainian drones, the killed/wounded ratio has shifted in favor of the killed). According to European intelligence estimates, monthly losses in killed personnel have already reached a level that Russia can only compensate for with contract soldiers (without a new mobilization wave). If this trend continues, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to replenish the army without forced mobilization, which Putin is avoiding due to its extreme unpopularity.

❗️Bloomberg: The number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has sharply increased in recent weeks (thanks to more effective Ukrainian drones, the killed/wounded ratio has shifted in favor of the killed). According to European intelligence estimates, monthly losses in killed personnel have already reached a level that Russia can only compensate for with contract soldiers (without a new mobilization wave). If this trend continues, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to replenish the army without forced mobilization, which Putin is avoiding due to its extreme unpopularity.

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦

195,001 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Russia's digital ministry announced it would be turning off the function of paying for apps through AppStore from the mobile phone account. This was unexpected and caused a lot of unhappiness in Russia. This case will concern about 50 million Russian users, mostly city dwellers and middle class. One of the explanations provided is that blocking payments through AppStore is seen as safekeeping Russia's currency reserves. Will everything that is now happening in Russia lead to a social explosion? State-controlled Internet and social media, decline of the standard of living, economical problems, large business controlled by the state and small business being smothered, the approaching mobilization.... No, all this won't lead to an explosion. The regime becomes even stronger, and the Russian population even more controlled, without rights and further poisoned by propaganda. What will it lead to - sadly, the continuing of war. 📹: a Russian woman describing how Internet is limited in Russia

Russia's digital ministry announced it would be turning off the function of paying for apps through AppStore from the mobile phone account. This was unexpected and caused a lot of unhappiness in Russia. This case will concern about 50 million Russian users, mostly city dwellers and middle class. One of the explanations provided is that blocking payments through AppStore is seen as safekeeping Russia's currency reserves. Will everything that is now happening in Russia lead to a social explosion? State-controlled Internet and social media, decline of the standard of living, economical problems, large business controlled by the state and small business being smothered, the approaching mobilization.... No, all this won't lead to an explosion. The regime becomes even stronger, and the Russian population even more controlled, without rights and further poisoned by propaganda. What will it lead to - sadly, the continuing of war. 📹: a Russian woman describing how Internet is limited in Russia

Anton Gerashchenko

43,564 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨ZELENSKYY: RUSSIA IS NOT TRANSITIONING TO PEACETIME — IT IS PREPARING FOR NEW ASSAULTS. THERE MUST BE GREATER ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON MOSCOW. MONEY IN RUSSIA MUST RUN OUT FOR THE WAR TO BEGIN TO END “I received a report from the head of military intelligence, Oleh Ivashchenko — primarily on Russia’s current military plans and training. Russia is not preparing for a transition to peacetime. It is preparing to continue assaults at the same level we are seeing now. We will share this information with our partners.The only thing that can change this is economic pressure on Russia. The economy — and the losses it suffers because of this war — is what Russia will pay attention to. Money in Russia must end for the war to begin to end.We will also continue providing our partners with evidence of cooperation between Chinese entities and Russia, including how Russia is circumventing global sanctions to wage this war.”— President Zelenskyy, Friday, January 30

🚨ZELENSKYY: RUSSIA IS NOT TRANSITIONING TO PEACETIME — IT IS PREPARING FOR NEW ASSAULTS. THERE MUST BE GREATER ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON MOSCOW. MONEY IN RUSSIA MUST RUN OUT FOR THE WAR TO BEGIN TO END “I received a report from the head of military intelligence, Oleh Ivashchenko — primarily on Russia’s current military plans and training. Russia is not preparing for a transition to peacetime. It is preparing to continue assaults at the same level we are seeing now. We will share this information with our partners.The only thing that can change this is economic pressure on Russia. The economy — and the losses it suffers because of this war — is what Russia will pay attention to. Money in Russia must end for the war to begin to end.We will also continue providing our partners with evidence of cooperation between Chinese entities and Russia, including how Russia is circumventing global sanctions to wage this war.”— President Zelenskyy, Friday, January 30

Kateryna Lisunova

41,207 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Peskov: There is no need for mobilization in Russia, since the Russians themselves actively sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense to participate in the war. Interesting. Then why is Russia looking for mercenaries across the globe, and asks DPRK for soldiers? Peskov is lying. Russia is suffering the heaviest losses since 2022 right now. Currently, the casualties officially recognized by Russia are 2.5x bigger than a year ago.

Peskov: There is no need for mobilization in Russia, since the Russians themselves actively sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense to participate in the war. Interesting. Then why is Russia looking for mercenaries across the globe, and asks DPRK for soldiers? Peskov is lying. Russia is suffering the heaviest losses since 2022 right now. Currently, the casualties officially recognized by Russia are 2.5x bigger than a year ago.

Anton Gerashchenko

356,002 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Gen. Ben Hodges: The war has changed in Ukraine’s favor. Russia is losing more soldiers than it can replace. That is a negative trend for Russia and may force full mobilization, including in Moscow and St. Petersburg - something the Kremlin does not want. - Ben Hodges

Gen. Ben Hodges: The war has changed in Ukraine’s favor. Russia is losing more soldiers than it can replace. That is a negative trend for Russia and may force full mobilization, including in Moscow and St. Petersburg - something the Kremlin does not want. - Ben Hodges

Anton Gerashchenko

25,200 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

‘Russia has a full-scale and effective army’ – Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces Thierry Burkhard. ‘Russia has openly called France its main adversary in Europe. And these are not my words, these are the words of Russia itself. Russia is a threat, if not in everything, then in almost everything, a long-term threat, a close one, and for me it is the largest. First of all, it is a real military power, possessing both conventional and nuclear potential, and this is not hidden. In fact, Russia builds its system on military force, and it continues to make huge, colossal efforts to this, the scale of which is difficult for us to imagine. Russia is really developing the ability to cause damage, and it does so very, very effectively. When we talk about a full-scale model of the army, the Russian army is precisely such a full-scale model to the very tips of its nails.’ Slavyangrad

‘Russia has a full-scale and effective army’ – Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces Thierry Burkhard. ‘Russia has openly called France its main adversary in Europe. And these are not my words, these are the words of Russia itself. Russia is a threat, if not in everything, then in almost everything, a long-term threat, a close one, and for me it is the largest. First of all, it is a real military power, possessing both conventional and nuclear potential, and this is not hidden. In fact, Russia builds its system on military force, and it continues to make huge, colossal efforts to this, the scale of which is difficult for us to imagine. Russia is really developing the ability to cause damage, and it does so very, very effectively. When we talk about a full-scale model of the army, the Russian army is precisely such a full-scale model to the very tips of its nails.’ Slavyangrad

Zlatti71

18,487 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Today, there is also a significant political decision by the UK regarding sanctions – to maintain sanctions against Russia until the aggressor compensates for all the damage done to our people and our country. And it is very important that the assets of the aggressor state and all those associated with it, associated with the system of tyranny that the Kremlin has built on the territory of Russia, are used to compensate for the damage caused by the Russian war and terror. This will be fair, and I am grateful to all British people who support us on the path to justice.

Today, there is also a significant political decision by the UK regarding sanctions – to maintain sanctions against Russia until the aggressor compensates for all the damage done to our people and our country. And it is very important that the assets of the aggressor state and all those associated with it, associated with the system of tyranny that the Kremlin has built on the territory of Russia, are used to compensate for the damage caused by the Russian war and terror. This will be fair, and I am grateful to all British people who support us on the path to justice.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський

756,093 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning explains that a war between Russia and Finland would be in the interests of the US, and the Finns are already preparing for it. 'A war between Russia and Finland would be something like a 'snowy Vietnam'. The Finnish way of waging war is to not let the Russians into their territory and make them pay dearly in the event of an invasion. This is an international border crossing between Finland and Russia near the city of Salla. From here, I can see Russia. This crossing opened in 2002, but has been closed for two years due to the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this part of the world, with endless forests and harsh winters, Finland has unique skills. As climate change opens up new natural resources and sea routes in the Arctic, competition for them is increasing. This is a rivalry in which both the US and Russia want to win, and Finland is making it harder for Moscow.' - SK

Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning explains that a war between Russia and Finland would be in the interests of the US, and the Finns are already preparing for it. 'A war between Russia and Finland would be something like a 'snowy Vietnam'. The Finnish way of waging war is to not let the Russians into their territory and make them pay dearly in the event of an invasion. This is an international border crossing between Finland and Russia near the city of Salla. From here, I can see Russia. This crossing opened in 2002, but has been closed for two years due to the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this part of the world, with endless forests and harsh winters, Finland has unique skills. As climate change opens up new natural resources and sea routes in the Arctic, competition for them is increasing. This is a rivalry in which both the US and Russia want to win, and Finland is making it harder for Moscow.' - SK

Zlatti71

13,116 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Where we are now and what can we expect in the coming months within the context of Russia's war in Ukraine: ◾️Ukraine and the world continue to await tensely for the results of the US elections. In the meantime, Ukraine and Russia continue active diplomatic actions to consolidate support for their allies. ◾️ Russia's primary focus is on discrediting Ukraine in the West, dividing our allies, and interfering in the US elections to divide Americans and increase instability. ◾️ During his visit to the US, President Zelensky met with President Biden and had meetings with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. ◾️ Ukraine continues to destroy Russian military depots and military logistics; Ukraine produces its own drones and other weapons. ◾️ Russia increases its weapons and drones production as much as it can, despite sanctions. It uses weapons supplied by Russian allies - Iran and North Korea. There are reports that production of Russian Shahed drones has exceeded Russian original plans. ◾️ Russia is intensifying its strikes on Ukrainian cities, deliberately targeting apartment blocks, hospitals, and nursing homes. Its main purpose is to cause as much panic as possible, intimidate Ukrainians, and force them to leave their lands and homes. Strikes are unfortunately likely to continue, especially for Sumy and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia is now within the range of Russian KAB bombs, so it is likely to be under constant strikes as well. ◾️Despite the lack of "cannon fodder", Putin doesn't dare yet to announce open mobilization in Russia and increases hidden mobilization instead: increases payments for signing army contracts and recruits soldiers from other countries, including countries of Africa. Russia is increasing its presence there at an alarming rate which is very dangerous for this region. ◾️ In the coming month, the Russians will probably try to solve the "Kursk issue" at any cost. The "deadline" is likely set before the US elections at most but a desirable timeline for them is before the BRICS summit in Kazan (22-24 October) - to demonstrate to the BRICS guests that Russia is in control of the situation and is a serious partner. Otherwise, the situation when a part of Russia's territory is under Ukrainian control (when Putin had the intention to capture Ukraine "in three days" almost three years ago), is rather humiliating for Russia. During August and September, Russians have accumulated forces, have reformed and will now try to counterattack our troops. How the situation in Kursk region will develop depends on many factors and on the decisions that AFU leaders will make. ◾️ One of the key elements of these upcoming months are the elections in Moldova and Georgia at the end of October, where the influence of Russia and pro-Russian forces is enormous. ◾️We are likely to hear increased nuclear threats and other escalation rhetoric from Russia. ◾️Ukraine will face further problems due to electricity shortage. ◾️ Due to the escalation in the Middle East and the US elections, Ukraine is fading from the information field, which Russia is actively using, knowing that its crimes against Ukrainian civilians will not make the headlines in the Western media. Accordingly, many people outside Ukraine have the impression that the situation is getting better. But this is not the case at all: the situation is very tough and complicated. And it will continue to get worse. The largest war in Europe since the Second World War continues to rage on. The whole world is waiting for the US elections. The situation of strategic uncertainty will last at least until November. It is crucial to go through this period with a cool head, keeping the focus on Ukraine and showing Russia that the West does not withdraw its support. I'd like to end with a reminder of these Putin's words, which he said in June 2024. Nothing has changed for him: he intends to wage a war until the end. And it must become his own end.

Where we are now and what can we expect in the coming months within the context of Russia's war in Ukraine: ◾️Ukraine and the world continue to await tensely for the results of the US elections. In the meantime, Ukraine and Russia continue active diplomatic actions to consolidate support for their allies. ◾️ Russia's primary focus is on discrediting Ukraine in the West, dividing our allies, and interfering in the US elections to divide Americans and increase instability. ◾️ During his visit to the US, President Zelensky met with President Biden and had meetings with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. ◾️ Ukraine continues to destroy Russian military depots and military logistics; Ukraine produces its own drones and other weapons. ◾️ Russia increases its weapons and drones production as much as it can, despite sanctions. It uses weapons supplied by Russian allies - Iran and North Korea. There are reports that production of Russian Shahed drones has exceeded Russian original plans. ◾️ Russia is intensifying its strikes on Ukrainian cities, deliberately targeting apartment blocks, hospitals, and nursing homes. Its main purpose is to cause as much panic as possible, intimidate Ukrainians, and force them to leave their lands and homes. Strikes are unfortunately likely to continue, especially for Sumy and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia is now within the range of Russian KAB bombs, so it is likely to be under constant strikes as well. ◾️Despite the lack of "cannon fodder", Putin doesn't dare yet to announce open mobilization in Russia and increases hidden mobilization instead: increases payments for signing army contracts and recruits soldiers from other countries, including countries of Africa. Russia is increasing its presence there at an alarming rate which is very dangerous for this region. ◾️ In the coming month, the Russians will probably try to solve the "Kursk issue" at any cost. The "deadline" is likely set before the US elections at most but a desirable timeline for them is before the BRICS summit in Kazan (22-24 October) - to demonstrate to the BRICS guests that Russia is in control of the situation and is a serious partner. Otherwise, the situation when a part of Russia's territory is under Ukrainian control (when Putin had the intention to capture Ukraine "in three days" almost three years ago), is rather humiliating for Russia. During August and September, Russians have accumulated forces, have reformed and will now try to counterattack our troops. How the situation in Kursk region will develop depends on many factors and on the decisions that AFU leaders will make. ◾️ One of the key elements of these upcoming months are the elections in Moldova and Georgia at the end of October, where the influence of Russia and pro-Russian forces is enormous. ◾️We are likely to hear increased nuclear threats and other escalation rhetoric from Russia. ◾️Ukraine will face further problems due to electricity shortage. ◾️ Due to the escalation in the Middle East and the US elections, Ukraine is fading from the information field, which Russia is actively using, knowing that its crimes against Ukrainian civilians will not make the headlines in the Western media. Accordingly, many people outside Ukraine have the impression that the situation is getting better. But this is not the case at all: the situation is very tough and complicated. And it will continue to get worse. The largest war in Europe since the Second World War continues to rage on. The whole world is waiting for the US elections. The situation of strategic uncertainty will last at least until November. It is crucial to go through this period with a cool head, keeping the focus on Ukraine and showing Russia that the West does not withdraw its support. I'd like to end with a reminder of these Putin's words, which he said in June 2024. Nothing has changed for him: he intends to wage a war until the end. And it must become his own end.

Anton Gerashchenko

166,479 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr