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Morgan Stanley expects Tesla $TSLA to have roughly 1K fully self-driving robotaxis on the road next year. Here are the three robotaxi tailwinds they’re watching: 1. The inflection point is when Tesla removes safety monitors entirely and opens rides to the public. Every software update is pushing them closer...

100,902 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Teslaconomics

34,223 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

The Cybercab is aiming to produce 2 million units per year. Let this sink in. Today, Tesla produces about ~1.7 million vehicles per year total, across its entire lineup. And now Tesla is preparing to outproduce that with one single vehicle, a fully autonomous one. This is Elon and Tesla going ALL-IN on autonomy. Production is scheduled to start April 2026 at Giga Texas, with volume ramping throughout the year. And as of early 2026, Cybercab prototypes are already being tested around the U.S. The Tesla Cybercab is built from the ground up for unsupervised autonomy. There is no steering wheel and no pedals, just cameras, AI, and Tesla’s custom inference computers. No lidar and radar like other companies, just pure vision and software. Elon put it best on the Q3 2024 earnings call: “It’s not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that is also coming with the Cybercab.” That quote matters a lot bc that means the entire way a vehicle is manufactured is changing with the Cybercab. Tesla is designing what Elon calls “the machine that builds the machine.” The Cybercab uses Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing process, where major sections are built in parallel instead of one long assembly line. There are fewer parts, less steps & cost, and faster scale. That’s how you make 2 million Cybercabs per year possible. FYI, this is not going to be easy though. Elon has been brutally honest about production for many years: • “Prototypes are easy, production is hard.” • “The extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is poorly understood. It’s 1000% to 10,000% harder than making a few prototypes.” • “For cars, it’s maybe 100 times harder to design the manufacturing system than the car itself.” He reinforced this again in January 2026 when talking about Cybercab and Optimus on 𝕏: “Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow - but eventually end up being insanely fast.” This is the key thing most people miss about Tesla manufacturing. Early output will be slow by design. Almost everything is new like the vehicle architecture, factory layout, AI hardware, and manufacturing flow. But once it works and clicks, it begins to scale hard. Tesla already proved they can do this. They survived Model 3 production hell. They turned Model Y into the BEST selling car in the world, of any kind. They ramped Cybertruck, which has over 30,000+ unique parts, to meaningful volume. Elon summed it up perfectly in 2024: “Compared to the insane pain of reaching high volume, positive margin production, prototypes are a piece of cake.” That’s why Tesla makes manufacturing look easy bc they already earned the scars from the last vehicle lineups. The Cybercab is aiming to be: 1/ Under $30,000 price 2/ ~$0.20 per mile operating cost 3/ 200+ mile range 4/ Up to 5x utilization vs personal cars 5/ Designed to run nearly nonstop 24/7 This is what you call manufacturing + AI + autonomy converging at scale. The competitors are still showing prototypes and demos, while Tesla is building new production lines, expanding factories, and actually building the product. I remember when Elon told me in the past that one of Tesla’s key advantage long term was going to be manufacturing technology. I get it now.

Teslaconomics

31,985 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

GOOD NEWS 🚨 DAN IVES PREDICTS TESLA WILL OWN '80%' OF ROBOTAXI MARKET — SAYS $TSLA IN HIS TOP 5 LIST FOR 2026 🆙 Ives is doubling down on Tesla as one of his top conviction picks for 2026, insisting that investors need to stop viewing it as a "car story" and start treating it as a robotics and AI play. He sees the stock fundamentally heading toward $1,000, with a current base case of $600 and a bull case of $800. According to Ives, this is a defining moment for Elon Musk—arguably his most important year ever—as the company fully commits to the AI path. He expects this pivot to unlock massive value, projecting a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and a bull case where Tesla hits $3 trillion by the end of 2026. The real engine behind this growth is the Robotaxi network, which Ives views as integral to the company's future. He predicts Tesla will eventually corner 80% of the autonomous driving market. While he admits that competitors like Waymo have had a huge head start with "phenomenal technology," he argues that no one else can match the sheer scale and scope of Tesla's venture in the long run. To prove the concept is working, Ives is looking for Tesla to hit a specific benchmark this year: launching Robotaxis in 30 cities to achieve critical scale, expanding beyond their initial start in Austin and moving into markets like California. When it comes to the speed of this rollout, Ives is fully supportive of Musk’s "brick by brick" strategy rather than a rushed launch. He emphasizes that because lives are at stake, safety has to take priority; it is far more important to expand the geospaced areas correctly than to just do it quickly. Ultimately, while he acknowledges Nvidia as the chip fueling the broader AI revolution, he sees Tesla standing apart as the dominant force in the physical autonomous world.

Ming

29,004 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

I just press a button… and my Tesla takes me to my destination. No stress, no constant steering, no thinking about every little turn. It just drives me safely there. And honestly, it’s hard to explain this feeling to someone who hasn’t experienced the latest software yet. It’s freakin 2026... If your car isn’t electric and can’t take you from parking lot to parking lot by itself, it's like using a flip phone with a keyboard… or riding a horse in this era. That might sound dramatic, but once you see what’s actually happening behind the scenes, it starts to make sense. When I activate Tesla’s Full Self-Driving, the car is doing far more than simple cruise control that other car companies show off... it's really funny when I see them advertise it tbh. My Tesla is literally watching the world around it with eight cameras that give it a full 360° view. All that video feeds into the onboard AI computer inside the car, which is constantly analyzing everything around it like cars, lanes, pedestrians, traffic lights, construction zones, and making decisions in real time. Tesla has millions of cars on the road, and every single one is helping train the system. Even when people are driving manually, the AI is running quietly in the background predicting what it would do in that situation. And when something unusual happens, a weird intersection, a sudden obstacle, an unexpected move from another driver, that short clip gets sent back to Tesla’s data systems. Engineers then use those clips to train the next version of the driving AI. And that updated AI then gets pushed back to every Tesla through a software update. So literally overnight, your car wakes up smarter. This is what we call the Tesla’s AI flywheel. The more cars on the road, the more data the system learns from. The more it learns, the better the driving gets. The better the driving gets, the more people use it. And that cycle just keeps spinning faster. At this point the fleet has driven billions of miles using FSD, which means the system has already experienced situations that no single human driver could ever see in a lifetime. That’s why when you press that button, the car is running a massive neural network that learned from millions of real drivers and billions of miles on real roads. And the result is something that honestly feels like the future. You literally just press a button… then you arrive at your destination. I really don't know how anyone in their right mind would choose anything other than a Tesla.

Teslaconomics

19,059 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

141,035 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

A Tesla is the #1 safest vehicle on Earth and I would never let my kids and the people I love drive anything other than a Tesla. Independent safety agencies around the world all come to the same conclusion. Teslas consistently earn the highest possible safety ratings and even set records no other car has beaten. Many still may not believe this, but safety is the #1 priority behind every single design decision at Tesla. The Tesla Model 3 and Y both hold 5-star overall ratings from U.S. regulators in every category: frontal crash, side crash, and rollover protection. The Model 3 also holds the lowest probability of serious occupant injury ever recorded in government testing - 5.7%, compared to 7-15% for most sedans and SUVs. No other vehicle has ever surpassed that. In Europe, the results are just as strong. The Model Y earned 98% adult occupant protection, 89% child protection, and one of the highest active safety scores ever measured. Also, in the real world, using data collected from billions of miles driven, Tesla’s own safety reports show: • 1 crash every ~6.36 million miles when Autopilot or supervised FSD is active • 1 crash every ~3.85 million miles with standard active safety features • All while the U.S. average is 1 crash every ~670,000 miles! Bro… this means driving with Tesla’s safety systems is about 9x safer than the national average! This is not a coincidence. Teslas are designed for safety first from day one. 1/ The battery sits low in the floor, giving the car a low center of gravity and dramatically reduces rollover risk 2/ There are massive crumple zones to absorb energy before it reaches the cabin 3/ A rigid safety structure keeps the passenger space intact 4/ Cameras and AI software react faster than humans, cutting rear end crashes nearly in half 5/ On top of that, Teslas get safer over time with software updates continuously improving braking, pedestrian detection, and crash avoidance and more. People can debate their opinions on the internet all they want, but as a parent, all I care about are the facts and outcomes. And when something goes wrong, I want my family in the car with the lowest injury risk ever measured and the best real world safety record on the road. That’s why I choose Tesla. I don’t care about how it looks… even though I think they are the sexiest cars on the planet. I simply choose a Tesla for protection.

Teslaconomics

14,952 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten