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🚨 Tesla’s biggest Robotaxi catalyst may not be Cybercab or regulation.. It could be FSD v15! The jump is huge: roughly 10B parameters vs. about 1B in v14. Elon and Ashok have both pointed to V15 as the key step before Tesla can really scale the fleet. Early v15... show more

Herbert Ong

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45,428 views • 1 day ago •via X (Twitter)

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18 Comments

tslainsights.com1 day ago

We need management to confirm v15 will work in AI4/HW4 on the next earnings call.

Chris Suris1 day ago

Great update as always. Your analysis brings a lot of value on FSD v15. You and @mozlyxy are my go to Tesla accounts.

PleiBook1 day ago

This is the part people underestimate. Cybercab is the product. FSD is the thing that makes the whole idea work. 🔥

Vernon Wait1 day ago

Thanks Herbert. Great point and well made

andrewblack2031 day ago

Herbert could never thank you guys enough for all the info and knowledge bombs!!

CommonSense1 day ago

🙏

truth seeker 💼 🔥1 day ago

Sleep and drive in 2 weeks?

Bumblebee1 day ago

IF....kicking the can down the lane

Beyond the Narrative1 day ago

V15 may be the technical unlock for scaling Robotaxi. But regulation and deployment approvals are the real gatekeepers. Tesla controls the software roadmap. It doesn’t control when those gates open.

Tommy1 day ago

$TSlA FSD…10x parameters That’s is and has been the ticket! Like to see it before yearend…see if they have developed Recursive learning to short cut development? Good putt ⛳️

Mike G1 day ago

What happened to the AI4.5 chip? Wasn't there another chip coming too? I thought AI5 was just for Optimus?

sandip namdev vatane1 day ago

If the robotaxi finally learns to parallel park itself, I’ll stop taking the bus and start charging my phone in the backseat.

FSDFox_DE1 day ago

Wenn v15 wirklich der große Sprung ist, wird der EU-Freigabe-Moment noch wichtiger. Erst Supervised, dann skaliert die Flotte.

SteveC1231 day ago

Tesla has used Teleop remote drivers for low speed intervention. Perhaps Tesla is waiting to scale the number of Cybercabs and will allow 24 hours of service once the need for remote intervention is minimal? This is key to true unsupervised FSD for Cybercab and Tesla cars.

Dean Wallace1 day ago

Lots of information to digest! Sounds like there will be even more updates coming very soon that should really help with the goals that are in place!🙏🙏🙏

Jimmy1 day ago

Is this already priced into stock price? Tesla trades at a 450 PE and earns $1.09/share. Uber trades at 15 PE and earns $4.50/share.

Heinrich Baumann☮️1 day ago

@grok funktioniert v15 auf der hw4 platine?

WAi XeA1 day ago

10x the params and the babysitter stayed

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32,847 views • 2 months ago

Is Tesla really holding back Robotaxi, or is scaling just harder than it looks? There are already 200+ Cybercabs spotted in staging lots, including 100+ in Houston. But then you look at Nevada: 42 Cybercabs waiting, while the interim permit starts Tesla at just 10 autonomous vehicles on limited roads. Add pickup/drop-off issues, remote support, charging depots and the need for FSD v15 to improve those tricky “last 100 feet.” The Cybercabs are showing up. Getting the whole system ready to scale is the harder part. $TSLA

Is Tesla really holding back Robotaxi, or is scaling just harder than it looks? There are already 200+ Cybercabs spotted in staging lots, including 100+ in Houston. But then you look at Nevada: 42 Cybercabs waiting, while the interim permit starts Tesla at just 10 autonomous vehicles on limited roads. Add pickup/drop-off issues, remote support, charging depots and the need for FSD v15 to improve those tricky “last 100 feet.” The Cybercabs are showing up. Getting the whole system ready to scale is the harder part. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

41,581 views • 1 month ago

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Tesla taking its time with FSD might actually be the smarter move! FutureAzA thinks Tesla is under so much scrutiny that even one bad Robotaxi incident could become a huge story. So instead of rushing thousands of cars onto the road, get the safety right first, then scale! And once that happens, the real selling point might be pretty simple: price. If Robotaxi is safe, easy to get, and eventually cheaper than owning a car, people won’t need much convincing. You don’t have to love Tesla or Elon to use it. If it saves you money and gets you where you need to go, that might be enough. 💯 $TSLA

Herbert Ong

25,235 views • 12 days ago

I still remember Elon telling me that Tesla Robotaxi is a $3-5 trillion opportunity for Tesla. I believed him then. And after riding in more Cybercabs myself, I believe it even more now. The more I experience this product firsthand, the more bullish I become on Robotaxi, Cybercab, and Tesla’s future. Sometimes you have to actually use the product to understand how big the opportunity could be. I’m seeing it now.

I still remember Elon telling me that Tesla Robotaxi is a $3-5 trillion opportunity for Tesla. I believed him then. And after riding in more Cybercabs myself, I believe it even more now. The more I experience this product firsthand, the more bullish I become on Robotaxi, Cybercab, and Tesla’s future. Sometimes you have to actually use the product to understand how big the opportunity could be. I’m seeing it now.

Teslaconomics

34,016 views • 18 days ago

The best part of Tesla FSD is that it’s always improving. Here’s what’s coming: • Pothole Avoidance • Tesla is going to expand reasoning to all behaviors beyond destination handling. • Elon says an update is coming that gives the car the ability to learn and default to your preferred spots over time. You’ll also be able to select exact parking destinations. • Tesla is working on bringing voice controls to FSD in a couple of months. • V15 is expected sometime in late 2026 to early 2017. This will be the model with ~10B parameters (10x more than V14). The rate of improvement is only accelerating. Ultimately, the end goal is Unsupervised FSD in customer cars. Tesla says when it does rollout, it will happen gradually in approved geographies, which make sense.

The best part of Tesla FSD is that it’s always improving. Here’s what’s coming: • Pothole Avoidance • Tesla is going to expand reasoning to all behaviors beyond destination handling. • Elon says an update is coming that gives the car the ability to learn and default to your preferred spots over time. You’ll also be able to select exact parking destinations. • Tesla is working on bringing voice controls to FSD in a couple of months. • V15 is expected sometime in late 2026 to early 2017. This will be the model with ~10B parameters (10x more than V14). The rate of improvement is only accelerating. Ultimately, the end goal is Unsupervised FSD in customer cars. Tesla says when it does rollout, it will happen gradually in approved geographies, which make sense.

Nic Cruz Patane

43,864 views • 2 months ago

🚨 Robotaxi profits might depend on something Tesla doesn’t even have to own! Larry Goldberg thinks the real challenge is peak demand. You can have enough Robotaxis for a normal afternoon, but what happens during rush hour, concerts, airports, or holidays when everyone suddenly needs a ride? Buying a huge dedicated fleet just to handle those peaks gets expensive fast. That’s where private Teslas could come in. If owners can eventually put their FSD-equipped cars into the Robotaxi network when they’re not using them, Tesla suddenly gets extra supply exactly when demand jumps. It’s basically Uber’s surge model, except the cars can show up without needing more drivers. $TSLA

🚨 Robotaxi profits might depend on something Tesla doesn’t even have to own! Larry Goldberg thinks the real challenge is peak demand. You can have enough Robotaxis for a normal afternoon, but what happens during rush hour, concerts, airports, or holidays when everyone suddenly needs a ride? Buying a huge dedicated fleet just to handle those peaks gets expensive fast. That’s where private Teslas could come in. If owners can eventually put their FSD-equipped cars into the Robotaxi network when they’re not using them, Tesla suddenly gets extra supply exactly when demand jumps. It’s basically Uber’s surge model, except the cars can show up without needing more drivers. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

26,015 views • 9 days ago