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Most agents track price. Ours track how information propagates through markets. That difference is where the edge comes from. The visualization below is a Shannon entropy field: a model of how uncertainty collapses and spreads as new information enters a market. Each trade, liquidity shift, or derivatives flow updates...

23,016 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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My professor kicked me out of a statistics lecture for arguing with him. "Markets can't be measured with entropy." He was wrong. Every contract on Polymarket leaks information. And there's one equation that measures exactly how much: H = −Σ pᵢ · log₂(pᵢ) Shannon Entropy. The same math that tells your phone how to compress a photo - tells me which markets are mispriced. A market at 50/50 has maximum entropy: 1.0 bit. Pure uncertainty. No edge. A market at 90/10 has entropy of 0.47 bits. The crowd already knows something. Hard to beat. But the sweet spot? Markets between 25¢ and 40¢ where entropy is high but resolution is low. I'm use for copytrade bots: That means: high uncertainty, but the crowd hasn't done its homework. I built a screener around this. R = RES / U R is entropy efficiency. RES is how much uncertainty the market has resolved. U is the total uncertainty from base rates. R ≈ 0 → the market is asleep. Nobody's processing information. R ≈ 1 → the market already knows. You're too late. I scan for R < 0.3 on markets with external signal. Last week found one. Fed meeting odds sitting at 35¢. R = 0.18. Market was barely awake. My model said 58%. Entropy gap: D_KL(mine ‖ market) = Σ pᵢ · log(pᵢ / mᵢ) = 0.117 bits That's 0.117 bits of information the market hadn't priced in yet. Sized with Kelly: f* = (p × b − q) / b = 0.354 Quarter-Kelly: ~9% of bankroll. Put $4,500 in. Market resolved YES. +$5,850 on a single position. 93% of traders stare at the price. I stare at the entropy. The price tells you what people believe. The entropy tells you how much they actually know. That's the difference.

Lunar

47,175 次观看 • 5 个月前

My Prediction Market Tools list + Trading Workflow A) Tools I use: - Betmoar: Filtering + Analysing specific smart money wallets - HashDive - Prediction Market Analytics: Spotting volume and OI changes + whale flows - Polymarket Analytics: Comparing markets across different Prediction Markets - Polycule: Trading on the go - Polysights: Advanced Metrics related to volatility and trends B) My workflow: 1) I usually trade sports + crypto price prediction markets since I have some kind of expertise there 2) I use Betmoar to filter and find interesting markets. Try to enter new markets as early as possible since there are significant mispricings 3) I then use Hashdive to see what OI changes and whale flows are like for a particular market 4) Polymarket Analytics to compare markets across PM and Kalshi to see where I can get the best price 5) Trade directly through PM and Kalshi for now to execute if im on my laptop and Polycule when I'm not 6) I also check in daily on smart money wallets I follow on BetMoar to see if they've made any interesting trades recently I don't focus on Arbitrage, LPing or delta-neutral trades at all. Prefer to either take directional trades where I have an information edge or I'm early Sometimes I'll 'gamble' on sports markets because it's fun C) Takeaways for you: - Only trade in markets you have in-depth knowledge/edge - Being early is lucrative in prediction markets - Pro tools can save you hours trying to find alpha - Don't use too many tools. Use a few and master them instead - Everyone has their own process. Don't copy mine it won't work for you. The point of this tweet was to educate you on how you can build your own process LMK if there's any other useful tools I should check out that could optimise my workflow further!

Yoshi

31,700 次观看 • 11 个月前

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! → The new Fed Chair confirmed interest rate HIKES. → Iran just officially CANCELLED the peace deal and launched ballistic missiles. → China and Japan started dumping U.S. Treasuries. When markets open on Monday, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Insiders already know what comes next. They are not buying the dip. They are cutting exposure and positioning for the largest risk-off event of the year. Meanwhile, pressure is building across the global financial system. China is reducing foreign Treasury holdings. At the same time, volatility in Japan's bond market has forced policymakers back into liquidity support measures. When the world's largest creditors step back from debt markets at the same time, liquidity disappears fast. → Japanese bond yields are surging → Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening → Global bond markets are under severe pressure → Energy markets remain unstable → Liquidity is tightening worldwide → Volatility is spreading across every major asset class This is no longer an isolated problem. This is systemic pressure building across MULTIPLE fronts at the same time. And now geopolitical risk is entering the equation. Diplomatic efforts are breaking down. Tensions are escalating. Markets do not price uncertainty forever. They price ESCALATION. And once markets begin pricing the possibility of a prolonged regional conflict... Energy markets become impossible to stabilize. Oil does not move gradually. It goes parabolic. Shipping routes become vulnerable. Supply chains become disrupted. Inflation accelerates globally. Which means interest rates remain higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability instead of temporary uncertainty, the entire framework changes. I have spent years tracking macro trends, liquidity cycles, and systemic market reactions like this. When the next move becomes obvious, I will share it publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it is already too late.

0xNobler

214,622 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! The US-Iran peace deal is breaking from BOTH sides now. Trump is NOT accepting it. Iran is NOT accepting it And markets are NOT ready for what comes next. When markets open on Monday, this will NOT be just a dip. This is a geopolitical catalyst hitting an already fragile system. Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. That one fact explains a lot. Because this is no longer about hope. It's about the market realizing that the deal everyone was waiting for is not real yet. No breakthrough. No stability. No real off ramp. And when diplomacy breaks down, markets do NOT price hope. They price WAR. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. - LIGHT SHOCK: both sides keep talking, markets panic first, oil pumps, then risk tries to stabilize. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: Trump rejects the deal again, Iran refuses the nuclear terms, and markets start pricing a longer conflict. - WORST CASE: talks collapse completely, strikes restart, oil pumps HARD, yields pump, liquidity gets worse, and risk assets dump all at once. That last one is the REAL danger. Because none of this is happening in a vacuum. Oil is already unstable. Bonds are already stressed. Liquidity is already getting worse. And now the peace deal looks like another fake hope trade. Now connect the dots. If the deal fails, oil does NOT move slowly. It pumps HARD. Shipping gets hit. Inflation comes back Central banks stay trapped. And every market that needs cheap energy and easy money gets hit again. That is where the real damage starts. Because once markets stop pricing temporary fear and start pricing prolonged instability, the whole system changes. Capital does NOT rotate calmly. It runs to safety all at once. And risk assets? They do NOT correct. They DUMP HARD. This is NOT a theory. The deal is being rejected from both sides. Markets are NOT pricing the next move now. But they will. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

146,442 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS HOW THE BIGGEST COLLAPSE STARTS!! The market is getting hit from EVERY side now. - FED rate hikes just got confirmed. - China, Japan, and Turkey are dumping US Treasuries. - The US-Iran peace deal is 24 hours away from COLLAPSING. When markets open on Monday, this will NOT be just a dip. Because this is no longer one isolated problem. It is a full macro stress setup hitting markets from MULTIPLE fronts at the same time. Smart money already sees it. They are NOT buying the dip. They are cutting risk, moving into cash, and getting ready for the biggest risk off move of the year. And now add the next piece. China is rejecting U.S. Nvidia chips. That's a trade war signal. Because when chips become geopolitical weapons, the market stops pricing growth. It starts pricing control, supply chain stress, and lower demand. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. - LIGHT SHOCK: markets panic first, bonds get stressed, oil pumps, and risk stabilizes if headlines calm down fast. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: the peace deal collapses, China keeps rejecting U.S. chips, and markets start pricing a real trade war plus a real war risk at the same time. - WORST CASE: diplomacy fully breaks, oil pumps HARD, yields pump, liquidity gets worse, and risk assets dump all at once. That last one is the REAL danger. Because none of this is happening in a vacuum. After months of negotiations, the U.S. and Iran still have no peace deal. No breakthrough. No stability. No real off ramp. That changes the entire risk landscape. Because when diplomacy breaks down, markets do NOT price hope. They price WAR. And once markets start pricing direct U.S.-Iran escalation, oil does NOT move slowly. It pumps HARD. Shipping gets hit. Supply chains get worse. Inflation comes back. Central banks stay trapped. That is where the real damage starts. Because when geopolitical stress hits an already fragile financial system, markets do NOT adjust slowly. They dump HARD. Capital does NOT rotate calmly. It runs to safety all at once. And risk assets? They do NOT correct. They DUMP HARD. This is how chain reactions start. Because once markets stop pricing temporary fear and start pricing prolonged instability, the whole system changes. Watch oil. Watch bonds. Watch semiconductors. Watch rates. Because once this starts accelerating, there will be no time left to react. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

52,798 次观看 • 2 个月前

Most recent diffusion language model research (that I’ve seen) seems to be using masking as the noising process. It looks like, however, most closed-source models (Google Gemini Diffusion and possibly Inception Labs’ Mercury) use a different noising process, where instead of masking tokens, they replace them with different tokens (either with a random token or a semantically similar token). I wondered how they were getting such high throughput with the latter noising process, since I believed that optimizing inference with KVCache approximation would be more difficult (for various reasons). I visualized this noising process with tiny-diffusion and compared it to normal unmasking, and was very surprised to see how fast the generation “settles” into a reasonable output, and then only slightly refines afterwards, requiring much fewer steps in total. Unmasking (where tokens are never remasked, the typical implementation) is inherently limited in generation speed by the fact that an increase in tokens decoded per step leads to more errors due to the mismatch between individual and marginal token probability distributions we sample from. The token replacement noising process seems to have a much different set of characteristics. Because we sample each token per step, every token makes “progress” towards the final output each iteration (in addition to *potentially* giving other tokens more information in future steps). Generally, masking has outperformed other noising processes, which is probably why most research focused on it (using smaller models). But the paper referred to in the retweet shows that random replacement as a noising process may scale better as model size increases. Big labs might have noticed these results much earlier (due to having drastically more training resources and being able to test larger models), which may explain the discrepancy in the choice of noising process. I’m gonna test this with larger models, since tiny-diffusion only has 10M parameters.

nathan (in sf)

40,440 次观看 • 7 个月前

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! 99% of people will lose everything. Iran just REJECTED all negotiations with the U.S. The peace deal is officially CANCELLED. And the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED again. When the market opens on Monday, this won’t be “just another dip you can buy.” Stocks will collapse. Metals will dump. Crypto will take the hardest hit. Insiders are already selling. They’re not taking profits. They’re building cash positions because something deeper is starting to break. The dollar is weakening in real time. This is not a one-day shock. This is pressure building across multiple fronts at the same time. And now another layer has been added: The U.S.–Iran peace deal is officially dead. After 2 weeks of negotiations, Iran walked away and rejected the terms. That changes everything. Because when diplomacy fails, uncertainty becomes IMMEDIATE. And markets don’t price “possibility.” They price escalation. There are only a few ways this plays out from here, and they are NOT equal: 1⃣ SOFT OUTCOME Backchannel talks resume, tensions cool, markets stabilize after initial volatility. 2⃣ ESCALATION PHASE No progress, tensions build, and markets begin pricing prolonged conflict risk. 3⃣ HARD BREAK The situation deteriorates rapidly, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the market reprices oil, risk, and global stability in hours. That last one is where things get dangerous. Because this isn’t happening in isolation. At the same time: → Bonds are being sold aggressively → Yields are rising fast → The dollar is losing stability → Liquidity is tightening Now connect the dots. When geopolitical risk collides with a fragile financial system, reactions don’t stay contained. They COLLAPSE. Oil doesn’t move slowly. It reprices violently. Capital doesn’t rotate calmly. It rushes to safety all at once. And risk assets? They don’t “dip.” They DUMP HARD. This is how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing duration instead of shock, everything changes. Inflation expectations rise. Central banks get trapped. And policy responses come too late. That’s when the real damage happens. This could still pass as a short-term scare. But if markets start pricing escalation into next week... This is no longer noise. This is a regime shift. Not a pullback. Not a buying opportunity. A STRUCTURAL CHANGE in how risk is priced across the system. Pay attention to flows. Watch oil. Watch bonds. Watch volatility. Because once this accelerates, it doesn’t give you time to react. I’ve spent years tracking macro trends and market reactions like this. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll share it here. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it hits the headlines, it’s already too late.

0xNobler

1,784,981 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨MONDAY COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING Most people still think this is just another dip - another red candle - another buying opportunity - another chance to front-run the next rally But what if the market is already telling us something nobody wants to hear? The S&P 500 is sitting near record highs while stress is building across multiple parts of the global financial system at the same time Bond yields remain elevated Japan's bond market is facing its biggest challenges in decades China continues reducing its exposure to U.S. debt And geopolitical risks are rising faster than most investors realize Now add the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran situation and the possibility of higher oil prices If energy starts moving higher, inflation comes back into focus And if inflation stays elevated, central banks have less room to support markets That's where things get dangerous Because markets don't need one massive event to crash They need several smaller risks to collide at the same time And that's exactly what's happening right now At the same time, one of the biggest IPOs in history is absorbing enormous amounts of capital and attention - liquidity is being pulled from every corner of the market - funds are rotating - positions are being reduced - volatility is starting to return Most investors are watching price Smart money watches liquidity And liquidity is rarely this important unless something bigger is developing beneath the surface We may be looking at the exact moment investors realize the easy money phase is over NOTIFS ON

BLADE

14,671 次观看 • 2 个月前

Full Fine-tuning vs. Freezing Layers. Interact 👉 and == Full Fine-tuning == A real network has many — three layers in this example, billions of parameters in a production model. What does fine-tuning look like when you update all of them? That’s full fine-tuning: continue training every weight in the pretrained network on your new task. Every layer’s W gets its own ΔW. Nothing is frozen — every parameter is in play. Think of an MLP as a chain of prerequisites leading to an advanced course. Layer 1 might be Linear Algebra, layer 2 Probability, layer 3 Advanced Machine Learning — each one building on what came before. Fine-tuning is what happens during graduate study: the foundations are already there from undergrad, so you’re not re-learning. Full fine-tuning is reviewing every prerequisite to see what new topics have appeared and what discoveries the field has made since the last time you sat through them. Effective — but exhausting. This diagram shows the same three-layer MLP twice, side by side. On the left, the pretrained network runs on input X: three weight matrices W₁, W₂, W₃, each followed by a ReLU activation. Full fine-tuning gives the model the most freedom to specialize. Every parameter can move — and every parameter that can move must be stored. But not every prerequisite needs revisiting. The further you go back in the chain, the less the material has changed since pretraining — the linear-algebra basics under your computer-vision course are largely the same as they ever were. The next page does exactly that: freeze the prerequisites that haven’t moved, and only refresh the advanced one closest to your specialization. == Freezing Layers == Full fine-tuning reviewed every prerequisite — Linear Algebra, Probability, Advanced ML — to refresh each subject with the latest topics. Effective, but exhausting. Then you realize something. The prerequisites haven’t actually changed that much. Linear Algebra is still Linear Algebra; the matrix decompositions you learned still hold. Probability is still Probability; the distributions and Bayes’ rule haven’t moved. Almost all the new material — the new ideas, the recent discoveries — lives in the advanced layer at the top. That’s freezing layers: keep the prerequisite layers fixed at their pretrained state, and only update the advanced one. In the diagram below, W1​ and W2​ — the foundational prerequisites — stay frozen. Only W3​ — the layer closest to your task-specific output — gets a ΔW.

Tom Yeh

27,587 次观看 • 3 个月前

FinChat is now Fiscal .ai — Announcing our $10M Series A and Rebrand Today we begin writing the next chapter of our Company. We have officially rebranded to Fiscal .ai to build the future of financial data and AI. With this, we are excited to announce our $10M USD Series A funding led by Portage Ventures and continued support from Social Leverage. When we launched FinChat in 2023, our mission was to empower everyone to query financial data at scale. As we’ve grown, so have our ambitions — beyond the Chat interface. Fiscal .ai represents a bold new vision: to power modern financial data infrastructure through our Terminal and APIs, transforming how the world accesses and uses information in capital markets. With already over 350,000 registered users and top fintech platforms worldwide leveraging Fiscal .ai’s APIs to serve millions of end users, we are completely rebuilding how investors get the information they require and interact with it day to day. We may have a new name, but our mission remains the same. Our Team is committed to building beautiful, powerful products — fast. Fiscal .ai represents the modern intersection of finance + AI and where we will be doubling down. We believe AI will fundamentally change how information is collected and presented in every role across finance. We’re deeply grateful to everyone who has supported us along the way — our customers, partners, employees, investors, advisors, and families. Braden Dennis Cofounder & CEO, Fiscal .ai (formerly FinChat) Direct media inquiries to [email protected]

Braden Dennis 📊

41,678 次观看 • 1 年前