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MSTR = UNBREAKABLE? THE ULTIMATE STRESS TEST In this video, I run Strategy through a brutal bear-market stress test: Bitcoin gets cut in half, CEBE mNAV compresses, cash burns, and we test the SURVIVAVBILITY. Are the engagement farming FUD bear clowns wrong forever? IMHO, YES:

Adam Livingston

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16,812 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🔥EVERY SINGLE MSTR BEAR ARGUMENT EVISCERATED - BITCOIN AND STRATEGY ARE INEVITABLE🔥 I have decided to WRECK literally EVERY SINGLE ARGUMENT the MSTR bears put forth. The FUD out there is ridiculously insane, we are dealing with a LOT of schizo lunatics IMHO. The nonsense doomer morons are NOT on the side of the ETERNAL LOGOS. They are NOT aligned with the TRUTH. This is me EVISCERATING EVERY SINGLE BEAR ARGUMENT AGAINST MSTR. IF I MISSED ONE, LET ME KNOW AND I'LL CRUSH THAT ONE TOO. GIGA-BULLISH MSTR BECAUSE I OPERATE IN REALITY:

🔥EVERY SINGLE MSTR BEAR ARGUMENT EVISCERATED - BITCOIN AND STRATEGY ARE INEVITABLE🔥 I have decided to WRECK literally EVERY SINGLE ARGUMENT the MSTR bears put forth. The FUD out there is ridiculously insane, we are dealing with a LOT of schizo lunatics IMHO. The nonsense doomer morons are NOT on the side of the ETERNAL LOGOS. They are NOT aligned with the TRUTH. This is me EVISCERATING EVERY SINGLE BEAR ARGUMENT AGAINST MSTR. IF I MISSED ONE, LET ME KNOW AND I'LL CRUSH THAT ONE TOO. GIGA-BULLISH MSTR BECAUSE I OPERATE IN REALITY:

Adam Livingston

22,195 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

JUST IN: Strategy CEO says their Bitcoin liquidation price is ZERO as net debt is non-existent. "We are the U.S. total #4 raiser of equity capital in 2026, in a Bitcoin bear market." $MSTR Phong Le

JUST IN: Strategy CEO says their Bitcoin liquidation price is ZERO as net debt is non-existent. "We are the U.S. total #4 raiser of equity capital in 2026, in a Bitcoin bear market." $MSTR Phong Le

Bitcoin Archive

66,601 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,237 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

Adam Livingston

122,179 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🔥BITCOIN TO $400K?! ASST VS. MSTR!🔥 MSTR is the fortress. ASST is the rocket-powered shopping cart with a lit cigarette in the gas tank. In this video, I break down my ASST investing thesis versus MSTR using CEBE, mNAV, claim ratio, preferred issuance, and the deranged little math goblin hiding inside Bitcoin treasury companies. The thesis is simple. MSTR is bigger, deeper, safer, and more institutional. ASST has more upside torque if Bitcoin rips, the capital structure behaves, and the market keeps paying a premium for the machine. If Bitcoin goes to $150k, ASST may outrun MSTR. If Bitcoin goes to $400k, the moon math gets disgusting. But there’s a catch. mNAV compression can absolutely nuke the outperformance. FULL BREAKDOWN:

🔥BITCOIN TO $400K?! ASST VS. MSTR!🔥 MSTR is the fortress. ASST is the rocket-powered shopping cart with a lit cigarette in the gas tank. In this video, I break down my ASST investing thesis versus MSTR using CEBE, mNAV, claim ratio, preferred issuance, and the deranged little math goblin hiding inside Bitcoin treasury companies. The thesis is simple. MSTR is bigger, deeper, safer, and more institutional. ASST has more upside torque if Bitcoin rips, the capital structure behaves, and the market keeps paying a premium for the machine. If Bitcoin goes to $150k, ASST may outrun MSTR. If Bitcoin goes to $400k, the moon math gets disgusting. But there’s a catch. mNAV compression can absolutely nuke the outperformance. FULL BREAKDOWN:

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18,348 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Trump: “It’s a lion, a giraffe, a bear, and a shark. They say, ‘Which one is the bear?’ Very standard test, but it gets really tough in the last 10 questions.”

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JUST IN: $MSTR ANALYST JUST SAID STRATEGY COULD BUY 1,000,000 #BITCOIN BY AUGUST THAT'S 200,000 BTC IN JUST 4 MONTHS OTHERS ARE PANICKING AND SELLING SAYLOR IS ENDING THE BEAR MARKET PERSONALLY 🔥

JUST IN: $MSTR ANALYST JUST SAID STRATEGY COULD BUY 1,000,000 #BITCOIN BY AUGUST THAT'S 200,000 BTC IN JUST 4 MONTHS OTHERS ARE PANICKING AND SELLING SAYLOR IS ENDING THE BEAR MARKET PERSONALLY 🔥

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80,223 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🔥MSTR DOMINATION - SAYLOR IS WINNING - THE BEARS ARE DESTROYED🔥 Strategy just bought back 48x the Bitcoin they sold. The clowns who called "death spiral" are still in denial. Strategy continues to raise $131 MILLION PER TRADING DAY in 2026. Their annual dividend obligation is made up in 13 TRADING DAYS OF RAISING. Strategy now only needs $94.4k Bitcoin for their Bitcoin NAV to reach an all-time high. This is because despite a huge Bitcoin bear market... Strategy is RAISING CAPITAL FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE. THE BEARS ARE IN DENIAL AND THE HATERS ARE LOSING IT. ONWARD TO THE GREAT ORANGE SINGULARITY:

🔥MSTR DOMINATION - SAYLOR IS WINNING - THE BEARS ARE DESTROYED🔥 Strategy just bought back 48x the Bitcoin they sold. The clowns who called "death spiral" are still in denial. Strategy continues to raise $131 MILLION PER TRADING DAY in 2026. Their annual dividend obligation is made up in 13 TRADING DAYS OF RAISING. Strategy now only needs $94.4k Bitcoin for their Bitcoin NAV to reach an all-time high. This is because despite a huge Bitcoin bear market... Strategy is RAISING CAPITAL FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE. THE BEARS ARE IN DENIAL AND THE HATERS ARE LOSING IT. ONWARD TO THE GREAT ORANGE SINGULARITY:

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19,015 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

JUST IN: Orange Juice co-founder Lyn Alden explains why their hybrid #Bitcoin treasury strategy is better than a pure-play approach. "The hybrid strategy gives us more optionality. Even in a bear market, we can use some of the business's cash flows to buy more BTC at any time." "Meanwhile, a pure-play struggles to raise capital in a bear market."

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Galaxy just helped an old whale sell 80,000+ BTC, worth $9B, in one of the largest notional bitcoin transactions ever. This news would've wrecked the market 5 years ago. Today, it barely moved. Stress test complete. Bitcoin is ready for the big leagues. [B2YB Horizon]

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48,695 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

WHY I AM MORE BULLISH THAN EVER ON MSTR In this presentation, I walk through why I’m more bullish than ever on MSTR, the halving, the synthetic halving, and the part that makes Bitcoin bears develop stress rashes: Strategy buying Bitcoin at a pace that outpaces the daily new supply. Then we hit the receipts, MSTR vs BTC returns, the DCA proof, and the compounding math that turns “responsible investing” into performance art. Bitcoin bears will watch this and immediately open a spreadsheet, whisper “valuation,” and then go back to clipping coupons in their emotional support 60/40 portfolio:

WHY I AM MORE BULLISH THAN EVER ON MSTR In this presentation, I walk through why I’m more bullish than ever on MSTR, the halving, the synthetic halving, and the part that makes Bitcoin bears develop stress rashes: Strategy buying Bitcoin at a pace that outpaces the daily new supply. Then we hit the receipts, MSTR vs BTC returns, the DCA proof, and the compounding math that turns “responsible investing” into performance art. Bitcoin bears will watch this and immediately open a spreadsheet, whisper “valuation,” and then go back to clipping coupons in their emotional support 60/40 portfolio:

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10,137 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Robot Dave heart update 🤖 Did an EKG & stress test today, throughout the stress test they saw 2 extra/early heartbeats (PVC) in a ten minute test, this is considered infrequent/very infrequent. Which is good, and I don’t feel them and have no symptoms. I’ll still have a follow up with my cardiologist, to be sure the EKG & week long sensor wearing didn’t show anything else, but with no symptoms, no family history, and 2 per 10 minutes in a stress test, it was luck that my regular doctor saw one on a 60 second EEG in December (a good thing though) I’ll let y’all know what else the cardiologist says in a couple weeks 🙏

Robot Dave heart update 🤖 Did an EKG & stress test today, throughout the stress test they saw 2 extra/early heartbeats (PVC) in a ten minute test, this is considered infrequent/very infrequent. Which is good, and I don’t feel them and have no symptoms. I’ll still have a follow up with my cardiologist, to be sure the EKG & week long sensor wearing didn’t show anything else, but with no symptoms, no family history, and 2 per 10 minutes in a stress test, it was luck that my regular doctor saw one on a 60 second EEG in December (a good thing though) I’ll let y’all know what else the cardiologist says in a couple weeks 🙏

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21,217 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

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JUST IN: Orange Juice co-founder Lyn Alden explains their hybrid #Bitcoin treasury strategy. "In a bull market, we will lean into buying more businesses and reinvesting cash flow. In a bear market, we will lean more into accumulating BTC with the cash flows." "Our edge is BTC, and we think it’s going to keep appreciating." 🔥

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🔥MSTR IS GOING TO $1,000 SOONER THAN YOU THINK🔥 MSTR to $1,000 sounds insane until you run the math. In this video, I break down the simple path that could send Strategy stock dramatically higher if Bitcoin returns to trend and Strategy continues scaling its digital credit machine through STRC. If Strategy can keep raising digital credit, buying Bitcoin, and growing CEBE per share, the common equity could reprice far faster than most people expect. THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET RIDICULOUS:

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37,785 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

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23,123 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten