Loading video...

Video Failed to Load

There was a problem loading this video. This could be due to a temporary network issue or the video might be unavailable.

MSTR = UNBREAKABLE? THE ULTIMATE STRESS TEST In this video, I run Strategy through a brutal bear-market stress test: Bitcoin gets cut in half, CEBE mNAV compresses, cash burns, and we test the SURVIVAVBILITY. Are the engagement farming FUD bear clowns wrong forever? IMHO, YES:

Adam Livingston

84,471 subscribers

16,711 views • 9 days ago •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 Comments

No comments available

Comments from the original post will appear here

Related Videos

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

Adam Livingston

121,451 views • 19 days ago

Trump: “It’s a lion, a giraffe, a bear, and a shark. They say, ‘Which one is the bear?’ Very standard test, but it gets really tough in the last 10 questions.”

Trump: “It’s a lion, a giraffe, a bear, and a shark. They say, ‘Which one is the bear?’ Very standard test, but it gets really tough in the last 10 questions.”

Republicans against Trump

131,855 views • 1 month ago

JUST IN: $MSTR ANALYST JUST SAID STRATEGY COULD BUY 1,000,000 #BITCOIN BY AUGUST THAT'S 200,000 BTC IN JUST 4 MONTHS OTHERS ARE PANICKING AND SELLING SAYLOR IS ENDING THE BEAR MARKET PERSONALLY 🔥

JUST IN: $MSTR ANALYST JUST SAID STRATEGY COULD BUY 1,000,000 #BITCOIN BY AUGUST THAT'S 200,000 BTC IN JUST 4 MONTHS OTHERS ARE PANICKING AND SELLING SAYLOR IS ENDING THE BEAR MARKET PERSONALLY 🔥

The Bitcoin Historian

80,223 views • 2 months ago

Galaxy just helped an old whale sell 80,000+ BTC, worth $9B, in one of the largest notional bitcoin transactions ever. This news would've wrecked the market 5 years ago. Today, it barely moved. Stress test complete. Bitcoin is ready for the big leagues. [B2YB ]

Galaxy just helped an old whale sell 80,000+ BTC, worth $9B, in one of the largest notional bitcoin transactions ever. This news would've wrecked the market 5 years ago. Today, it barely moved. Stress test complete. Bitcoin is ready for the big leagues. [B2YB ]

Joe Consorti

48,689 views • 11 months ago

🔥MSTR DOMINATION - SAYLOR IS WINNING - THE BEARS ARE DESTROYED🔥 Strategy just bought back 48x the Bitcoin they sold. The clowns who called "death spiral" are still in denial. Strategy continues to raise $131 MILLION PER TRADING DAY in 2026. Their annual dividend obligation is made up in 13 TRADING DAYS OF RAISING. Strategy now only needs $94.4k Bitcoin for their Bitcoin NAV to reach an all-time high. This is because despite a huge Bitcoin bear market... Strategy is RAISING CAPITAL FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE. THE BEARS ARE IN DENIAL AND THE HATERS ARE LOSING IT. ONWARD TO THE GREAT ORANGE SINGULARITY:

🔥MSTR DOMINATION - SAYLOR IS WINNING - THE BEARS ARE DESTROYED🔥 Strategy just bought back 48x the Bitcoin they sold. The clowns who called "death spiral" are still in denial. Strategy continues to raise $131 MILLION PER TRADING DAY in 2026. Their annual dividend obligation is made up in 13 TRADING DAYS OF RAISING. Strategy now only needs $94.4k Bitcoin for their Bitcoin NAV to reach an all-time high. This is because despite a huge Bitcoin bear market... Strategy is RAISING CAPITAL FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE. THE BEARS ARE IN DENIAL AND THE HATERS ARE LOSING IT. ONWARD TO THE GREAT ORANGE SINGULARITY:

Adam Livingston

19,015 views • 1 month ago

'This is the ultimate stress test in politics': Julie Etchingham tells us what we can expect from Sunak V Starmer as we countdown to the ITV General Election debate Watch the ITV General Election debate tonight at 9pm on ITV1 and ITVX.

'This is the ultimate stress test in politics': Julie Etchingham tells us what we can expect from Sunak V Starmer as we countdown to the ITV General Election debate Watch the ITV General Election debate tonight at 9pm on ITV1 and ITVX.

ITV News

71,198 views • 2 years ago

WHY I AM MORE BULLISH THAN EVER ON MSTR In this presentation, I walk through why I’m more bullish than ever on MSTR, the halving, the synthetic halving, and the part that makes Bitcoin bears develop stress rashes: Strategy buying Bitcoin at a pace that outpaces the daily new supply. Then we hit the receipts, MSTR vs BTC returns, the DCA proof, and the compounding math that turns “responsible investing” into performance art. Bitcoin bears will watch this and immediately open a spreadsheet, whisper “valuation,” and then go back to clipping coupons in their emotional support 60/40 portfolio:

WHY I AM MORE BULLISH THAN EVER ON MSTR In this presentation, I walk through why I’m more bullish than ever on MSTR, the halving, the synthetic halving, and the part that makes Bitcoin bears develop stress rashes: Strategy buying Bitcoin at a pace that outpaces the daily new supply. Then we hit the receipts, MSTR vs BTC returns, the DCA proof, and the compounding math that turns “responsible investing” into performance art. Bitcoin bears will watch this and immediately open a spreadsheet, whisper “valuation,” and then go back to clipping coupons in their emotional support 60/40 portfolio:

Adam Livingston

10,137 views • 4 months ago

Robot Dave heart update 🤖 Did an EKG & stress test today, throughout the stress test they saw 2 extra/early heartbeats (PVC) in a ten minute test, this is considered infrequent/very infrequent. Which is good, and I don’t feel them and have no symptoms. I’ll still have a follow up with my cardiologist, to be sure the EKG & week long sensor wearing didn’t show anything else, but with no symptoms, no family history, and 2 per 10 minutes in a stress test, it was luck that my regular doctor saw one on a 60 second EEG in December (a good thing though) I’ll let y’all know what else the cardiologist says in a couple weeks 🙏

Robot Dave heart update 🤖 Did an EKG & stress test today, throughout the stress test they saw 2 extra/early heartbeats (PVC) in a ten minute test, this is considered infrequent/very infrequent. Which is good, and I don’t feel them and have no symptoms. I’ll still have a follow up with my cardiologist, to be sure the EKG & week long sensor wearing didn’t show anything else, but with no symptoms, no family history, and 2 per 10 minutes in a stress test, it was luck that my regular doctor saw one on a 60 second EEG in December (a good thing though) I’ll let y’all know what else the cardiologist says in a couple weeks 🙏

Dave Danna

21,217 views • 4 months ago

🔥XRP: THE ASSET FOR STUPID CLOWNS🔥 Bitcoin is the only digital asset worth owning in the coming monetary collapse. In this VIDEO EXORCISM, I explain in detail why holding XRP in 2025 is a Darwin test for your portfolio:

🔥XRP: THE ASSET FOR STUPID CLOWNS🔥 Bitcoin is the only digital asset worth owning in the coming monetary collapse. In this VIDEO EXORCISM, I explain in detail why holding XRP in 2025 is a Darwin test for your portfolio:

Adam Livingston

96,437 views • 1 year ago

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Today's guest is Ben Werkman, CIO of Strive. We discuss Ben's take on the current state of the market, the base case for the bear market, talking to retail versus institutional investors, stress testing digital credit in a bear market, Ben's day to day as CIO of Strive, and much more. Here's my conversation with Ben Werkman. 0:00 - Intro 0:30 - Ben’s take on the current state of the market 4:00 - The base case for the bear market? 9:20 - Talking to retail vs institutional investors 17:04 - Stress testing Digital Credit in a bear market 22:37 - Ben’s day-to-day as CIO of Strive 26:27 - Will a bull market lift all Bitcoin Treasury companies? 30:44 - Digital Credit while trading below NAV?

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Today's guest is Ben Werkman, CIO of Strive. We discuss Ben's take on the current state of the market, the base case for the bear market, talking to retail versus institutional investors, stress testing digital credit in a bear market, Ben's day to day as CIO of Strive, and much more. Here's my conversation with Ben Werkman. 0:00 - Intro 0:30 - Ben’s take on the current state of the market 4:00 - The base case for the bear market? 9:20 - Talking to retail vs institutional investors 17:04 - Stress testing Digital Credit in a bear market 22:37 - Ben’s day-to-day as CIO of Strive 26:27 - Will a bull market lift all Bitcoin Treasury companies? 30:44 - Digital Credit while trading below NAV?

Tim Kotzman

21,599 views • 19 days ago

Bitcoin cycles are really this easy. → Bear market → Pre-bull → Bull Run 1 → Bull Run 2 Then the cycle repeats. Reminder: I publicly called the $16K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025. I'll call the next cycle bottom too. Follow and turn notifications on.

Bitcoin cycles are really this easy. → Bear market → Pre-bull → Bull Run 1 → Bull Run 2 Then the cycle repeats. Reminder: I publicly called the $16K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025. I'll call the next cycle bottom too. Follow and turn notifications on.

Lofty

35,928 views • 5 days ago

JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE MIKE NOVOGRATZ JUST SAID THE FUD AGAINST MICHAEL SAYLOR IS TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY FALSE STRATEGY IS NOT GOING TO BE A "FORCED SELLER OF #BITCOIN OR $MSTR ANYTIME SOON" SAYLOR AND STRATEGY HAVE "PLENTY OF CASH TO PAY HIS DIVIDENDS" FOR YEARS "THE MARKET DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT HE CAN JUST SIT AND DO NOTHING AND BE FINE" DON'T BELIEVE THE FUD. HODL 🚀

JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE MIKE NOVOGRATZ JUST SAID THE FUD AGAINST MICHAEL SAYLOR IS TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY FALSE STRATEGY IS NOT GOING TO BE A "FORCED SELLER OF #BITCOIN OR $MSTR ANYTIME SOON" SAYLOR AND STRATEGY HAVE "PLENTY OF CASH TO PAY HIS DIVIDENDS" FOR YEARS "THE MARKET DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT HE CAN JUST SIT AND DO NOTHING AND BE FINE" DON'T BELIEVE THE FUD. HODL 🚀

The Bitcoin Historian

123,462 views • 15 days ago

Would have loved it if we had a set up like this in ladipo market where we can start and test engines before we buy Most of the time I have to fix the engine in ladipo market anytime I buy so I won't hear stories that touch Beautiful set up. Test and buy . Shows transparency

Would have loved it if we had a set up like this in ladipo market where we can start and test engines before we buy Most of the time I have to fix the engine in ladipo market anytime I buy so I won't hear stories that touch Beautiful set up. Test and buy . Shows transparency

The mechanic

71,634 views • 9 months ago

CATHIE WOOD: Bitcoin to hit $1.5m by 20230. "We are half way through the cycle and Bitcoin is still in a bull market."

CATHIE WOOD: Bitcoin to hit $1.5m by 20230. "We are half way through the cycle and Bitcoin is still in a bull market."

Bitcoin Archive

410,985 views • 1 year ago

Early users are getting creative with Ramp Sheets. Here are 3 use cases they’ve shared: 1. Build a 5-year operating model to stress-test Cursor’s $29B valuation, running bear, base, and bull scenarios to analyze if the price is right.

Early users are getting creative with Ramp Sheets. Here are 3 use cases they’ve shared: 1. Build a 5-year operating model to stress-test Cursor’s $29B valuation, running bear, base, and bull scenarios to analyze if the price is right.

Ramp Labs

42,491 views • 7 months ago

Delinquencies in the GTA have increased 7x from their lows, and unemployment is nearing double digits. This is the stress test for real. The real pain peaks in late '26, early '27, with the market turning after peak unemployment and delinquencies. #housingmarket #canadarealestate

Delinquencies in the GTA have increased 7x from their lows, and unemployment is nearing double digits. This is the stress test for real. The real pain peaks in late '26, early '27, with the market turning after peak unemployment and delinquencies. #housingmarket #canadarealestate

Daniel Foch

17,075 views • 9 months ago

Vinny Lingham on exactly how the MSTR empire could crash step by step "The moment MSTR trades at a discount he cannot raise more cash. He is locked out. He cannot sell MSTR. He cannot sell STRC. Then he starts running out of cash. Call it nine months, eight months, seven months" "The market prices this in well in advance. The biggest buyer of Bitcoin is being removed. People selling Bitcoin are going to push the price down" "There is a void that forms in the market. The person who has been providing liquidity for years is no longer providing it. The price of Bitcoin goes into a deeper bear market. And then he has to sell Bitcoin to pay the interest on the preferreds"

Vinny Lingham on exactly how the MSTR empire could crash step by step "The moment MSTR trades at a discount he cannot raise more cash. He is locked out. He cannot sell MSTR. He cannot sell STRC. Then he starts running out of cash. Call it nine months, eight months, seven months" "The market prices this in well in advance. The biggest buyer of Bitcoin is being removed. People selling Bitcoin are going to push the price down" "There is a void that forms in the market. The person who has been providing liquidity for years is no longer providing it. The price of Bitcoin goes into a deeper bear market. And then he has to sell Bitcoin to pay the interest on the preferreds"

Laura Shin

98,022 views • 19 days ago

A discussion between Bob Dewey, Phong Le, and me on why Bitcoin Treasury Companies exist, what the first real stress test for Digital Credit taught us, and the opportunity ahead for Bitcoin-backed financial innovation. TIMESTAMPS 0:04 - Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Exist 7:22 - Financial Engineering Vs. Financial Innovation 14:24 - What Makes Bitcoin Treasury Companies Durable 18:42 - Does Bitcoin Need Treasury Companies? 22:20 - Addressing Bitcoin Treasury Company Criticism 26:46 - Growing Demand For Bitcoin-Backed Products 30:11 - What Has Surprised The CEOs Most 36:06 - The Evolution Of Digital Credit Products 45:10 - Lessons From The First Market Stress Test 53:10 - Bitcoin Market Depth And Liquidity 55:21 - Why Selling Bitcoin Is Not A Contradiction 1:03:37 - The Future Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA $BTC

A discussion between Bob Dewey, Phong Le, and me on why Bitcoin Treasury Companies exist, what the first real stress test for Digital Credit taught us, and the opportunity ahead for Bitcoin-backed financial innovation. TIMESTAMPS 0:04 - Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Exist 7:22 - Financial Engineering Vs. Financial Innovation 14:24 - What Makes Bitcoin Treasury Companies Durable 18:42 - Does Bitcoin Need Treasury Companies? 22:20 - Addressing Bitcoin Treasury Company Criticism 26:46 - Growing Demand For Bitcoin-Backed Products 30:11 - What Has Surprised The CEOs Most 36:06 - The Evolution Of Digital Credit Products 45:10 - Lessons From The First Market Stress Test 53:10 - Bitcoin Market Depth And Liquidity 55:21 - Why Selling Bitcoin Is Not A Contradiction 1:03:37 - The Future Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA $BTC

Matt Cole

98,626 views • 4 days ago

I’ve had a few comments asking what is “defending the mNAV”? Best clip I could make: h/t Joe Burnett, MSBA Preparing your moat for the bear market is not popular right now - but those that prepare will survive and thrive the inevitable downturn in this sector. $MSTR

I’ve had a few comments asking what is “defending the mNAV”? Best clip I could make: h/t Joe Burnett, MSBA Preparing your moat for the bear market is not popular right now - but those that prepare will survive and thrive the inevitable downturn in this sector. $MSTR

Cris Reed || Bitcoin Mindset

29,827 views • 11 months ago