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$MSTR Saifedean is a great thinker, but he’s an ideologue. And the problem with ideologues is they model the future based on past patterns, without accounting for the most disruptive variable of all: changing technology. Saifedean’s world is one where, under a Bitcoin standard, time preference naturally falls. People...

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Zaid 🟧

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36,271 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

STRC - SAYLOR'S INFINITE MONEY GLITCH IS DOMINATING People don't understand how POWERFUL STRC is, and how much WEALTH will flow into Bitcoin because of it. You will learn: How STRC is the best fixed income instrument in the world How STRC is a perpetual capital transmutation engine. How Saylor is turning your yield addiction into Bitcoin fuel Why this structure is mathematically safer than government bonds How STRC functions as a shadow central bank with an incorruptible balance sheet And why nobody in power is stopping it... because they still don’t understand it STRC is the FINAL FORM of CAPITAL MARKETS WARFARE
16:58

STRC - SAYLOR'S INFINITE MONEY GLITCH IS DOMINATING People don't understand how POWERFUL STRC is, and how much WEALTH will flow into Bitcoin because of it. You will learn: How STRC is the best fixed income instrument in the world How STRC is a perpetual capital transmutation engine. How Saylor is turning your yield addiction into Bitcoin fuel Why this structure is mathematically safer than government bonds How STRC functions as a shadow central bank with an incorruptible balance sheet And why nobody in power is stopping it... because they still don’t understand it STRC is the FINAL FORM of CAPITAL MARKETS WARFARE

Adam Livingston

22,376 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

"Is Stretch really that innovative Bitcoin-backed credit, or is it just yield chasing right now?" David Duong on the real debate around Michael Saylor and Strategy "So far Saylor has demonstrated the ability to raise capital and grow his Bitcoin per share. That kind of stays ahead of the compounding dividend obligation he has. That engine so far has been running" "But is that an autopilot thing where he can just keep doing that in perpetuity? I don't have the answer to that. I don't think anyone does" "A lot of it comes down to Michael Saylor. How good is he at continuing this trend? I don't know what the answer is gonna be at the end of all things, but this is what a lot of people are internalizing at the moment"
1:09

"Is Stretch really that innovative Bitcoin-backed credit, or is it just yield chasing right now?" David Duong on the real debate around Michael Saylor and Strategy "So far Saylor has demonstrated the ability to raise capital and grow his Bitcoin per share. That kind of stays ahead of the compounding dividend obligation he has. That engine so far has been running" "But is that an autopilot thing where he can just keep doing that in perpetuity? I don't have the answer to that. I don't think anyone does" "A lot of it comes down to Michael Saylor. How good is he at continuing this trend? I don't know what the answer is gonna be at the end of all things, but this is what a lot of people are internalizing at the moment"

The Wolf Of All Streets

15,712 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin per share at all. For the longest time, that was the No. 1 metric." "They can't raise money through $STRC as long as it's trading this far below par... they can't tap that facility, and that was where they were raising the majority of their capital over the past year." "The real options left are dilution via either selling $MSTR or selling Bitcoin. Either way, both are hurting shareholders."
3:11

CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin per share at all. For the longest time, that was the No. 1 metric." "They can't raise money through $STRC as long as it's trading this far below par... they can't tap that facility, and that was where they were raising the majority of their capital over the past year." "The real options left are dilution via either selling $MSTR or selling Bitcoin. Either way, both are hurting shareholders."

Fibonacci 🥷

57,821 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

$MSTR “Occasionally we will take a slight dilution in Bitcoin per share to improve the credit worthiness of the company.” In the past two days, the combined impressions across Saylor’s signal, Phong’s follow up, and Monday’s announcement crossed 17.5 MILLION! Love it or hate it, the attention Strategy commands is second to none. Post the announcement, skeptics were quick to point out that the acquisition, combined with the replenishment of the USD reserve, was slightly dilutive to Bitcoin per share. Michael Saylor came out today addressing that directly, reminding the market to look at the entire capital stack and not just one KPI in isolation. Those who have followed this company long enough already understand this. The BTC yield quarter to date is 9.7%. Year to date it sits at 12.8%, tracking toward the 22.8% projection by year end. Not a single quarter has produced a negative Bitcoin per share result. So when you look at yesterday’s transaction in isolation, it tells you very little about the direction this company is actually heading. What it does tell you is that management is doing exactly what it should be doing. Balancing the interests of the credit instruments, the common shareholders, and the long term scaling of $STRC, which remains the most important lever for the company’s future growth. An occasional dilutive transaction in service of all of that is not something long term shareholders should lose sleep over. The speculation that surrounds moves like this is a net positive too. Every week that Strategy dominates the conversation, more eyes land on the thesis. More skeptics read the dashboards and find themselves having to reckon with what is actually being built here. “Attention is the rarest and purest form of generosity.” - Simone Weil In this space, it is also the most powerful form of validation. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
2:20

$MSTR “Occasionally we will take a slight dilution in Bitcoin per share to improve the credit worthiness of the company.” In the past two days, the combined impressions across Saylor’s signal, Phong’s follow up, and Monday’s announcement crossed 17.5 MILLION! Love it or hate it, the attention Strategy commands is second to none. Post the announcement, skeptics were quick to point out that the acquisition, combined with the replenishment of the USD reserve, was slightly dilutive to Bitcoin per share. Michael Saylor came out today addressing that directly, reminding the market to look at the entire capital stack and not just one KPI in isolation. Those who have followed this company long enough already understand this. The BTC yield quarter to date is 9.7%. Year to date it sits at 12.8%, tracking toward the 22.8% projection by year end. Not a single quarter has produced a negative Bitcoin per share result. So when you look at yesterday’s transaction in isolation, it tells you very little about the direction this company is actually heading. What it does tell you is that management is doing exactly what it should be doing. Balancing the interests of the credit instruments, the common shareholders, and the long term scaling of $STRC, which remains the most important lever for the company’s future growth. An occasional dilutive transaction in service of all of that is not something long term shareholders should lose sleep over. The speculation that surrounds moves like this is a net positive too. Every week that Strategy dominates the conversation, more eyes land on the thesis. More skeptics read the dashboards and find themselves having to reckon with what is actually being built here. “Attention is the rarest and purest form of generosity.” - Simone Weil In this space, it is also the most powerful form of validation. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

47,335 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.
0:42

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

Alex 👽

21,150 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”
1:00

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”

Arjun Khemani

568,617 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Coffeezilla thinks that $STRC is going to fail because it's 11.5% yield is "Too good to be true" comparing it to the Terra Luna moment and described it as a "Ponzi Scheme". There's absolutely no substance to his claims because he doesn't understand it. He sees the headline interest return and then compares it to every other high yield return product but spectacularly misses the fact that this product is nothing like them. Saylor recently did an interview with Bankless and mentioned there were '3 types of people in the world - Optimists, Pessimists & Alarmists". Coffeezilla in this instance is an alarmist. He says that Strategy are 'not obligated to pay you the yield'. Correct....but it's clearly not in their interest to not pay the divided, so why would they not? As Saylor correctly says: "You need to have a stochastic view of the world. We could list 100 things that could go wrong, but the real threat is you get hit by a truck because you're not looking both ways while you cross the street." $STRC is the real deal. Anyone who has watched it closely over the past 8+ months will tell you that.
2:58

Coffeezilla thinks that $STRC is going to fail because it's 11.5% yield is "Too good to be true" comparing it to the Terra Luna moment and described it as a "Ponzi Scheme". There's absolutely no substance to his claims because he doesn't understand it. He sees the headline interest return and then compares it to every other high yield return product but spectacularly misses the fact that this product is nothing like them. Saylor recently did an interview with Bankless and mentioned there were '3 types of people in the world - Optimists, Pessimists & Alarmists". Coffeezilla in this instance is an alarmist. He says that Strategy are 'not obligated to pay you the yield'. Correct....but it's clearly not in their interest to not pay the divided, so why would they not? As Saylor correctly says: "You need to have a stochastic view of the world. We could list 100 things that could go wrong, but the real threat is you get hit by a truck because you're not looking both ways while you cross the street." $STRC is the real deal. Anyone who has watched it closely over the past 8+ months will tell you that.

David Lawrence

39,864 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

STRC bi-monthly dividend & Institutional Signal - The market wants a high yield money market, something different than any equity or fixed income instrument that exists today. - This only works because Bitcoin is a closed system. - Phong Le: “We think one of the big opportunities of STRC is to borrow against it” - So long as STRC's market cap continues to grow, i.e. more buyers than sellers, there will exist an overnight arbitrage on the ex dividend date greater than the 11.5% annualized return of STRC. - This video scratches the surface of how STRC will price and what the liquidity will look like in a rising Bitcoin and STRC market cap environment.
10:59

STRC bi-monthly dividend & Institutional Signal - The market wants a high yield money market, something different than any equity or fixed income instrument that exists today. - This only works because Bitcoin is a closed system. - Phong Le: “We think one of the big opportunities of STRC is to borrow against it” - So long as STRC's market cap continues to grow, i.e. more buyers than sellers, there will exist an overnight arbitrage on the ex dividend date greater than the 11.5% annualized return of STRC. - This video scratches the surface of how STRC will price and what the liquidity will look like in a rising Bitcoin and STRC market cap environment.

Dan Hillery

35,213 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

. Michael Saylor explains why Strategy's real business isn't Bitcoin - it's selling credit to people who want the upside without the bumpy ride "We're like a reserve bank. We have a reserve asset - Bitcoin. We will sell credit. We are stripping the performance and the risk off of the bitcoin." "Bitcoin's got 40 vol and it's got high performance. But most of the world wants zero vol. What they want is a bank account that pays them 10 or 11%." "For every dollar of equity capital of Bitcoin that we have - digital capital - you can create 10 to $0.20 of credit. We've sold about $10 billion of credit. We'll create $20 billion of digital credit over the next year, then grow that 30 to 50% a year."
2:38

. Michael Saylor explains why Strategy's real business isn't Bitcoin - it's selling credit to people who want the upside without the bumpy ride "We're like a reserve bank. We have a reserve asset - Bitcoin. We will sell credit. We are stripping the performance and the risk off of the bitcoin." "Bitcoin's got 40 vol and it's got high performance. But most of the world wants zero vol. What they want is a bank account that pays them 10 or 11%." "For every dollar of equity capital of Bitcoin that we have - digital capital - you can create 10 to $0.20 of credit. We've sold about $10 billion of credit. We'll create $20 billion of digital credit over the next year, then grow that 30 to 50% a year."

MR SHIFT 🦁

34,055 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

🔥THE ULTIMATE MSTR BULL CASE - 12 MINUTES TO BLOW YOUR MIND🔥 Strategy is going to buy ALL of the Bitcoin and they will be the most valuable company in the world. Don't believe me? Watch this video. In this video, I break down the craziest, and somehow still realistic, 10-year MSTR model we’ve built yet. Using a framework based on what Strategy has already done with MSTR and STRC capital raises, I show how Bitcoin NAV could compound into something utterly monstrous over the next decade, even with a built-in 2 week monthly cool-off period where ZERO CAPITAL is raised. This is where the thesis gets wild. Debt gets crushed as a percentage of enterprise value. Preferred scales, but stabilizes. Bitcoin NAV goes vertical. And the first thing that breaks in the model is not the balance sheet. It’s Bitcoin scarcity itself. THAT'S THE REAL STORY HERE:
14:17

🔥THE ULTIMATE MSTR BULL CASE - 12 MINUTES TO BLOW YOUR MIND🔥 Strategy is going to buy ALL of the Bitcoin and they will be the most valuable company in the world. Don't believe me? Watch this video. In this video, I break down the craziest, and somehow still realistic, 10-year MSTR model we’ve built yet. Using a framework based on what Strategy has already done with MSTR and STRC capital raises, I show how Bitcoin NAV could compound into something utterly monstrous over the next decade, even with a built-in 2 week monthly cool-off period where ZERO CAPITAL is raised. This is where the thesis gets wild. Debt gets crushed as a percentage of enterprise value. Preferred scales, but stabilizes. Bitcoin NAV goes vertical. And the first thing that breaks in the model is not the balance sheet. It’s Bitcoin scarcity itself. THAT'S THE REAL STORY HERE:

Adam Livingston

22,529 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

HOW STRATEGY GETS TO 1 MILLION BITCOIN IN 2026 MSTR is an UNASSAILABLE MONETARY SUPERSTRUCTURE. The scale is so massive that even small swings in premium dictate BILLION DOLLAR BITCOIN BUYS. STRC ATM is currently the most efficient Bitcoin miner on the planet. Saylor has perfected the BATTLE-TESTED BITCOIN WAR WEAPON and the MATH behind their ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL is INSANE. SAYLOR IS DRIVING ALL BITCOIN OUT OF CIRCULATION. HATERS WILL HATE, BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO HAVE FUN STAYING POOR:
20:58

HOW STRATEGY GETS TO 1 MILLION BITCOIN IN 2026 MSTR is an UNASSAILABLE MONETARY SUPERSTRUCTURE. The scale is so massive that even small swings in premium dictate BILLION DOLLAR BITCOIN BUYS. STRC ATM is currently the most efficient Bitcoin miner on the planet. Saylor has perfected the BATTLE-TESTED BITCOIN WAR WEAPON and the MATH behind their ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL is INSANE. SAYLOR IS DRIVING ALL BITCOIN OUT OF CIRCULATION. HATERS WILL HATE, BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO HAVE FUN STAYING POOR:

Adam Livingston

22,195 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Bill Ackman manages 25 billion dollars and just said the thing every long-term investor is most afraid of out loud. The risk of two people in a garage destroying your company has gone up enormously, and he spends most of his time on that one problem. That should change how you look at every business you own. His logic is simple. This is the greatest era in history to build a company. There is unlimited access to compute. There is unlimited access to capital. There is incredible talent everywhere. Most people hear that and feel optimistic. Ackman hears it and sees a threat. Because every one of those advantages is available to the people trying to kill your company too. The same tools that make it easy to build make it easy to disrupt. His exact words: the probability of your being disrupted has gone up enormously. So the hardest job he has as an investor is not finding cheap stocks. It is figuring out what cannot be destroyed. That is where he spends most of his time now. Not on upside. On survival. Everyone is asking which companies AI will make. Ackman is asking which ones it will break. The cheapest stock in the world means nothing if two people in a garage are already building the thing that ends it. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast
2:32

Bill Ackman manages 25 billion dollars and just said the thing every long-term investor is most afraid of out loud. The risk of two people in a garage destroying your company has gone up enormously, and he spends most of his time on that one problem. That should change how you look at every business you own. His logic is simple. This is the greatest era in history to build a company. There is unlimited access to compute. There is unlimited access to capital. There is incredible talent everywhere. Most people hear that and feel optimistic. Ackman hears it and sees a threat. Because every one of those advantages is available to the people trying to kill your company too. The same tools that make it easy to build make it easy to disrupt. His exact words: the probability of your being disrupted has gone up enormously. So the hardest job he has as an investor is not finding cheap stocks. It is figuring out what cannot be destroyed. That is where he spends most of his time now. Not on upside. On survival. Everyone is asking which companies AI will make. Ackman is asking which ones it will break. The cheapest stock in the world means nothing if two people in a garage are already building the thing that ends it. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

20,475 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

$MSTR “I have an idea for $30 trillion.” “We have $60 billion of capital. We could buy anything.” - Michael Saylor $STRC is the multi-trillion-dollar idea. It’s the product Strategy is here to build. It’s also why investing in this company requires a genuinely long time horizon. $STRC has already attracted over $10 billion of capital, but if management is right, it’s still in the very early stages of its journey. Each year of consistent execution, each expansion into the credit markets, and each disciplined capital allocation decision strengthens the structure. As long as the company remains focused on accumulating Bitcoin and strengthening digital credit, I don’t believe there is a more compelling idea for management to pursue. This is the strategy. This is the multi-trillion-dollar bet. This is what you’re ultimately investing in. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
1:52

$MSTR “I have an idea for $30 trillion.” “We have $60 billion of capital. We could buy anything.” - Michael Saylor $STRC is the multi-trillion-dollar idea. It’s the product Strategy is here to build. It’s also why investing in this company requires a genuinely long time horizon. $STRC has already attracted over $10 billion of capital, but if management is right, it’s still in the very early stages of its journey. Each year of consistent execution, each expansion into the credit markets, and each disciplined capital allocation decision strengthens the structure. As long as the company remains focused on accumulating Bitcoin and strengthening digital credit, I don’t believe there is a more compelling idea for management to pursue. This is the strategy. This is the multi-trillion-dollar bet. This is what you’re ultimately investing in. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

15,021 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

WHY MOST PEOPLE WILL NEVER OWN MEANINGFUL BITCOIN Most people will never own meaningful Bitcoin for the same reason they can’t finish a book, hold eye contact, or say no to the “Would you like fries with that?” screen at McDonald’s. Because Bitcoin doesn’t just filter capital. It filters consciousness. This video is a journey into the IQ meat grinder that modern society has become. Where time preference is weaponized, fiat is a drug, and self-destruction is subsidized at scale. I break down: ⚰️ Why the average NPC would rather finance a used jet ski than hold 0.1 BTC 🧠 The neurochemical traps designed to keep you broke and distracted 📉 Why owning no Bitcoin is the default setting of a decaying civilization
19:34

WHY MOST PEOPLE WILL NEVER OWN MEANINGFUL BITCOIN Most people will never own meaningful Bitcoin for the same reason they can’t finish a book, hold eye contact, or say no to the “Would you like fries with that?” screen at McDonald’s. Because Bitcoin doesn’t just filter capital. It filters consciousness. This video is a journey into the IQ meat grinder that modern society has become. Where time preference is weaponized, fiat is a drug, and self-destruction is subsidized at scale. I break down: ⚰️ Why the average NPC would rather finance a used jet ski than hold 0.1 BTC 🧠 The neurochemical traps designed to keep you broke and distracted 📉 Why owning no Bitcoin is the default setting of a decaying civilization

Adam Livingston

33,257 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇
7:48

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

Steven Lubka ☀️

29,280 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.
2:45

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.

Mason

141,126 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Everyone remembers the crazy run that Dogecoin had to an ATH of $0.736 but everyone forgets the -93.2% correction to $0.0497 just one year later Interestingly at the exact moment of me writing this $DOG is also down -93.2% from its ATH We must remember that memecoins are the most volatile asset class in the world There is no escaping the volatility Even the most valuable memecoin in the world that was bull posted by the richest man in the world relentlessly for months had a correction equal to what $DOG is experiencing right now Volatility is both a curse and a blessing The same thing that allows $DOG to drop from $1B to $67M is what may allow it to one day go to the moon and become the #1 memecoin in the world With no other asset class is something like that possible The roller coaster ride is part of the experience for better or worse The reason I want everyone in the $DOG Army to internalize this is because it makes us sharper and stronger Not every $DOG soldier has gone through 4 cycles Every cycle without fail when the bear market arrives the vast majority of people think that Bitcoin and crypto are dead forever But the true believers who understand the significance of this technology know that this is only the beginning I've attached a short clip from a conversation I had with Vincent (Cryptolution) 👑 over a year ago in the middle of the bull run that I believe is quite prescient right now that I encourage everyone to listen do I need each and every one of you to realize that this will not be easy We did not pick an easy mission But what matters right now is that we hold on and keep fighting even in the hardest of times because these are the moments that define us These are the moments where true conviction is forged Our work is not done In fact we are just getting started I want you all to know that it is an incredible honor to serve in the $DOG Army every day with each of you If you are here today reading this you are a $DOG legend You will be the reason for $DOG ATHs You are the real $DOG soldier who I have been waiting two years to meet 🫡
2:50

Everyone remembers the crazy run that Dogecoin had to an ATH of $0.736 but everyone forgets the -93.2% correction to $0.0497 just one year later Interestingly at the exact moment of me writing this $DOG is also down -93.2% from its ATH We must remember that memecoins are the most volatile asset class in the world There is no escaping the volatility Even the most valuable memecoin in the world that was bull posted by the richest man in the world relentlessly for months had a correction equal to what $DOG is experiencing right now Volatility is both a curse and a blessing The same thing that allows $DOG to drop from $1B to $67M is what may allow it to one day go to the moon and become the #1 memecoin in the world With no other asset class is something like that possible The roller coaster ride is part of the experience for better or worse The reason I want everyone in the $DOG Army to internalize this is because it makes us sharper and stronger Not every $DOG soldier has gone through 4 cycles Every cycle without fail when the bear market arrives the vast majority of people think that Bitcoin and crypto are dead forever But the true believers who understand the significance of this technology know that this is only the beginning I've attached a short clip from a conversation I had with Vincent (Cryptolution) 👑 over a year ago in the middle of the bull run that I believe is quite prescient right now that I encourage everyone to listen do I need each and every one of you to realize that this will not be easy We did not pick an easy mission But what matters right now is that we hold on and keep fighting even in the hardest of times because these are the moments that define us These are the moments where true conviction is forged Our work is not done In fact we are just getting started I want you all to know that it is an incredible honor to serve in the $DOG Army every day with each of you If you are here today reading this you are a $DOG legend You will be the reason for $DOG ATHs You are the real $DOG soldier who I have been waiting two years to meet 🫡

Leonidas 🧡 $DOG

46,134 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.
2:53

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.

Kirk Rollins

30,483 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen