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$MSTR Saylor’s response to the Bitcoin monetization framework: “I don’t think there’s a conflict between doing the right thing for Bitcoin, doing the right thing for the equity, doing the right thing for the credit. I think those are all in a dynamic harmony with each other.” Strategy has...

13,766 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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I joined Laura K. Inamedinova at the Xapo Bank Conference in London on July 1 for a fireside chat on Bitcoin as Digital Capital, the emergence of Digital Credit, and the path to Bitcoin-backed Digital Money. Fix the money, fix the world. $BTC 00:42 — Bitcoin below $60K and the mission: “Fix the money, fix the world” 01:27 — Bitcoin as the dominant Digital Capital network and the next great digital transformation 02:55 — Bitcoin Dominance approaching 69–70% and why “the flippening” debate is over 04:21 — The next layers: Digital Credit and Digital Money built on Bitcoin 06:56 — Strategy as an institutional gateway: attracting $64–65B into Bitcoin across equity, derivatives, credit, and money markets 12:28 — $STRC: bitcoin-backed preferred equity designed to create asset-backed Digital Credit 15:33 — The $STRC breakthrough: potential tax-deferred credit dividends backed by unrealized Bitcoin gains 18:18 — Digital Credit on Digital Capital: the killer app of a $50B bitcoin-backed balance sheet 19:48 — Digital Money: zero-volatility, fiat-pegged, yield-bearing bitcoin-backed assets 22:32 — Stress testing $STRC through deeper Bitcoin drawdowns 25:51 — $STRC vs. Bitcoin in the bear market: stripping ~90% of Bitcoin’s downside volatility 27:04 — Transparent Digital Credit: modeling risk from Bitcoin price and volatility every 15 seconds 30:34 — The builder roadmap: “If you want to make money, make the money” 32:27 — $STRC, $SATA, and the credit layer behind bitcoin-backed Digital Money 36:20 — Wrapping Digital Money as accounts, funds, public products, or tokens 41:27 — Creating Digital Credit on Digital Capital, then Digital Money on Digital Credit 43:00 — 2026 headwinds: geopolitics, the Fed, AI capital rotation, and digital asset regulation 44:54 — Potential catalysts: $STRC returning to par, Digital Credit reaccelerating, and capital flowing back to Digital Capital 46:01 — Why current market conditions may be a strong entry point for Digital Money builders

Michael Saylor

463,530 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Bitcoin has already won as Digital Capital. The next wave is Digital Credit, Digital Money, Digital Yield, and Bitcoin-backed capital markets — products that can bring trillions of dollars of traditional credit and money market capital onto Bitcoin. My interview with Cointelegraph at BTC Prague. 00:57 — Bitcoin in a drawdown: five major pullbacks in six years, stronger fundamentals, and rising dominance 02:23 — Digital Credit: from zero to an $11B+ asset class in 12 months 03:35 — Digital Money: bitcoin-backed yieldcoins and the path from 40 vol to 0 vol 04:31 — The opportunity for 8% yield in dollars, euros, yen, pounds, and francs 06:02 — $300T of credit, $30–50T of money markets, and the $10T opportunity for Bitcoin 07:19 — Why Bitcoin is winning economically, technically, and ethically 08:26 — Quantum computing, FUD, and why bear markets amplify Bitcoin debates 10:37 — AI capital rotation, Bitcoin’s current drawdown, and the path to recovery 11:36 — Six years of Strategy: why I would have moved faster into Digital Credit 12:22 — The ideal Bitcoin Treasury Company: common equity plus STRC-style Digital Credit 14:35 — The 32 BTC sale, the $100M bitcoin buyback, and why capital must back credit 17:02 — Defending the equity, credit, and bitcoin-backed capital structure 19:03 — The tradeoff: buy 200,000 BTC and sell 10,000 BTC — or buy and sell zero 20:15 — “Never sell,” Twitter trolls, and Strategy’s fiduciary obligations 22:06 — Bitcoin per share, long-term accretion, and accumulating through bull and bear markets 22:34 — $21B of equity raised in 16 weeks and ~$10B of bitcoin acquired this year 24:18 — The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, US leadership, and supportive regulation 27:18 — Digital Credit, bank credit, and Digital Money bringing trillions onto Bitcoin 28:01 — Why Bitcoin can grow organically without central bank support

Michael Saylor

262,028 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,006 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

How does Strategy navigate a challenging Bitcoin market, return $STRC to par, and continue compounding Bitcoin per share? In our Q2 earnings call, we laid out the strategy, reviewed our financial position and capital-management framework, and answered questions from equity analysts and industry experts. Prepared Remarks 00:00:00 - Welcome 00:01:20 - 843,775 BTC, 203,683 sats per share, $17B raised year to date, and Strategy’s position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin 00:03:27 - Q2 balance sheet: $49.7B of digital assets, $3.75B current USD reserve, lower debt, higher preferred equity, and strong stress-case coverage 00:08:57 - Bitcoin KPIs: 4.5% BTC Yield, 29,997 BTC Gain, and ~3.6x growth in Bitcoin per share since 2020 00:12:47 - Q2 execution: higher Bitcoin holdings, lower debt, larger USD reserves, stronger Bitcoin per share, and active capital management 00:15:03 - Strategy as a net buyer of Bitcoin and net issuer of Digital Credit: 48x more BTC bought than sold and 300x more Digital Credit issued than repurchased 00:18:47 - Returning $STRC to $99–$100 through USD reserves, Bitcoin monetization, repurchases, dividend management, and disciplined issuance 00:24:50 - Bitcoin liquidity: why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and sales are not material to overall Bitcoin trading volume 00:33:03 - Bitcoin as Digital Capital: website metrics, the 200-week moving average, current headwinds, Bitcoin Dominance, banking adoption, and security coordination 00:44:08 - $STRC as flagship Digital Credit: liquidity, lower volatility, market depth, yield, investor base, path to par, and updated credit metrics 01:05:04 - Equity framework: hurdle rate, breakeven rate, floor rate, market skepticism, $MSTR outperformance, franchise advantages, and Strategy’s long-term ambition Q&A 01:19:31 - Why Bitcoin-backed borrowing is not currently the preferred path to build USD reserves 01:23:11 - Why Strategy is consolidating around $STRC instead of creating more instruments or selling volatility 01:40:37 - Equitizing, repaying, or refinancing convertible debt 01:43:18 - Covered calls, cash-secured puts, Digital Credit, Bitcoin as money, and marketing products to the 99% outside Bitcoin 01:59:22 - USD reserve minimums and the path to $STRC trading at par 02:00:55 - Amplification, USD/BTC reserve mix, and countercyclical capital management 02:12:04 - Why Strategy does not intend to issue $STRC below par 02:20:34 - Lessons from 2022 and 2026, tokenized securities, Digital Money, and the June 26 $STRC dislocation 02:34:54 - Closing remarks

Michael Saylor

322,693 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇

One Chair

44,606 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten