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NewLimit CEO Jacob Kimmel explains the clinical trial bottleneck AI can't fix: biology has irreducible latency "It's unlikely we're gonna see rapid expedition of clinical trials because a lot of the periods of time can't be expedited based on the biological primitives. In computer science you often have a...

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50,797 次观看 • 13 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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11 条评论

Braydon Dymm, MD 的头像
Braydon Dymm, MD12 天前

@jacobkimmel What we really need is clinical trial abundance

Tim Peterson 的头像
Tim Peterson12 天前

@jacobkimmel Just say slow

suqitah 的头像
suqitah13 天前

@jacobkimmel does newlimit's model actually move the 10 percent number or just pick better candidates going into the same slow pipe

Mgoes (bio/acc 🤖💉) 的头像
Mgoes (bio/acc 🤖💉)13 天前

@jacobkimmel Very much matches what I dicsussed with Rico from Retro Bio last month

Alex Mercer 的头像
Alex Mercer13 天前

@jacobkimmel AI may not eliminate biology’s inherent latency, but improving clinical success rates could transform drug development. Doubling success from 10% to 20% would be a massive leap in both impact and economics.

Sebastian A. Brunemeier 🏴 🌎 💊 🧬 的头像
Sebastian A. Brunemeier 🏴 🌎 💊 🧬12 天前

@jacobkimmel True

Antonio Regalado 的头像
Antonio Regalado12 天前

@jacobkimmel I like the way this is explained. Moderna just reported out its data for the mRNA vaccine in skin cancer based on 5 year survival. So right there you have 5 year latency for a cancer cure claim.

Ricci Research 的头像
Ricci Research12 天前

The bandwidth/latency framing is exactly right, and it has a financial twin: cost of capital compounds over a fixed 10-year clock you can't shorten, so the only lever left is raising the hit rate. Doubling success from 10% to 20% doesn't just halve cost per approval — it changes what a portfolio is worth at every discount rate.

Neo 的头像
Neo12 天前

@jacobkimmel Trials is the only thing that matters in biotech. They make it brake companies. It’s the end all be all. They take forever and they cost a ton. You cannot work around them. The trials is the drugs.

Sheral Tech 的头像
Sheral Tech12 天前

@jacobkimmel Brilliant insight AI improving trial success rates could revolutionize medicine forever🧬🔥

Lisa 的头像
Lisa11 天前

Our map of human biology is built on sparse, biased data, shallow clinical data and a literature full of contradiction, and which conflates correlation with causation. The bottleneck might not be AI, but actually understanding how human biology moves when we perturb it in non-consensus ways.

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Jordan Peterson: "If you're competent and silent you will be ignored." "You might think well people should reward you because you're competent. And yes of course they should. But if you're competent and silent then you're just part of the background that's keeping everything functioning" On why you cannot negotiate from a position of weakness: "If you want to push your career forward you have to push it forward. You have to be competent and you have to be strategic" "To be strategic when you negotiate for a new position or a new salary you have to be able to say if you don't give me what I want then something you don't like will happen to you" "It's not a physical threat. It's that you have an option" "You have your CV in order. You're educated and competent and desirable to people outside of your immediate job. You're willing to instantly put yourself on the job market" "So that when you go talk to the person you're negotiating with you're credible" On the one thing most people completely miss about negotiation: "It's very seldom that you're talking to the person who's at the top of the pecking order. What you need to do is tell them a story that they can tell to their boss to make you not a problem" "A good story is look we really need this person because they're hyper competent and they have a better offer" "If you go in there with no power you're going to lose. Obviously" He concludes with the one thing every competent person needs to hear: "The first thing you need to know if you're going to negotiate is that you have to be able to say no. And what no means is that you're not going to do it"

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35,334 次观看 • 1 个月前

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3:50

$ABCL CEO Carl Hansen explains the net negative overall value creation in biotech and how AbCellera plans to beat it: “I really think it can be beat because there’s a lot of mistakes that get made in where you allocate capital.” “If you’re a biotech and you start a company on a drug, and you go public and have a drug, and now the data is looking not that great, you just keep running that drug. … Because if you quit that drug, the company is done.” “So, because you’re so concentrated on one thing, you end up having blinders. It’s like a cult of a molecule. And even a real, practical, capital access problem that makes you continue to move things forward” ______________________________________ “Another problem is that many of the drugs that get started, get started by people who don’t understand the competitive or commercial landscape and have no intent of ever actually manufacturing it. … Because they know someone else is going to buy it. So then their framework is not ‘Am I making a drug that’s going to make a difference for people?’ The framework is ‘Can I make something that I think someone will take off my hands?’ And that happens a lot.” “There are many acquisitions where a big pharma company spends $10B, $20B, and it’s a complete bust. So really no value is generated for patients but someone was able to get a good exit on that because they anticipated what someone would want. And a lot of decision making gets done like that”. _______________________________________ “I’m not saying that we have this all solved. But what we’re trying to do is create a framework where we are able to take many bets so that we don’t fall in love with anything, or we don’t have to fall in love with anything. … And then always hold up very explicitly what we know and what we don’t know along the dimensions that matter. The dimensions that matter are - Will it work? That’s a science. - When it gets where will people care? - Is it differentiated? - Does it solve a big problem? In order to get it there, is there a path with our resources and expertise that would allow us to see it through?” “When you start to hold things up like that, you start to see where the mistakes are, where the uncertainties are, and you can be more rational in deciding ‘We’re going to run it to here because we get to flip the card and if the card goes the wrong way we’re going to kill it because we’ve got something else behind it.’” “I do think that if done right, and if you can pick the right opportunities, the success rate can be well higher than an order of magnitude better. … And there are examples of this… companies I’ve mentioned, you know, Regeneron, their success rate is at least 10x the industry in bringing programs forward and getting them approved. … So it’s… you can do it better that way”

Jack Prescott

31,665 次观看 • 1 个月前

Jeff Bezos on the bet you should take every single time, even if you lose 90% of the time. "You cannot invent and pioneer if you cannot accept failure. To invent you need to experiment, and if you know in advance that it's going to work, it is not an experiment." "They're inseparable twins, failure and invention. So you have to be willing to do that." "It's embarrassing to fail. But you have to say, no, that's not how this works." "If I said to you you have a 10% chance of a 100x return, you should take that bet every time. But you're still gonna be wrong nine out of ten times, and it's gonna feel bad nine out of ten times." "If you swing for the fences you hit more home runs, but you also strike out more. But with baseball that analogy doesn't go far enough, because with baseball, no matter how well you connect with the ball, you can only get four runs." "But in business, every once in a while you step up to the plate, you hit the ball so hard you get a thousand runs." "When you have that kind of asymmetric payoff, it encourages you to experiment more. It's the right business decision to experiment more."
1:44

Jeff Bezos on the bet you should take every single time, even if you lose 90% of the time. "You cannot invent and pioneer if you cannot accept failure. To invent you need to experiment, and if you know in advance that it's going to work, it is not an experiment." "They're inseparable twins, failure and invention. So you have to be willing to do that." "It's embarrassing to fail. But you have to say, no, that's not how this works." "If I said to you you have a 10% chance of a 100x return, you should take that bet every time. But you're still gonna be wrong nine out of ten times, and it's gonna feel bad nine out of ten times." "If you swing for the fences you hit more home runs, but you also strike out more. But with baseball that analogy doesn't go far enough, because with baseball, no matter how well you connect with the ball, you can only get four runs." "But in business, every once in a while you step up to the plate, you hit the ball so hard you get a thousand runs." "When you have that kind of asymmetric payoff, it encourages you to experiment more. It's the right business decision to experiment more."

Naruto

13,084 次观看 • 1 个月前

Derek Jeter shares a truth about failure that most people don't want to hear. "Failure is essential. If I can promise you one thing for certain, you will fail. I wouldn't have had the success without the failures." Failure isn't the opposite of success - it's part of the path to it. Successful people don't avoid adversity. They expect it. They know that they must learn from the setbacks and challenges. You can't avoid failure - you have to be relentless in your pursuits and refuse to let it stop you. Failure isn't a destination - it's a checkpoint. It's where growth begins. (🎥 MLive)
1:08

Derek Jeter shares a truth about failure that most people don't want to hear. "Failure is essential. If I can promise you one thing for certain, you will fail. I wouldn't have had the success without the failures." Failure isn't the opposite of success - it's part of the path to it. Successful people don't avoid adversity. They expect it. They know that they must learn from the setbacks and challenges. You can't avoid failure - you have to be relentless in your pursuits and refuse to let it stop you. Failure isn't a destination - it's a checkpoint. It's where growth begins. (🎥 MLive)

Coach AJ 🎯 Mental Fitness

104,215 次观看 • 8 个月前

Muslim man who immigrated to America and assimilated has a message for Dearborn Michigan “You are in a Christian country — You can't force your religion to be apart of their day — You can't do that here” “To my Muslims in Dearborn, I just wanna say this. Islam is a great religion but you wanna know one thing. Not a lot of people understand that there is something called adhan at 5:00AM or 6:00AM in the morning that are gonna wake them up. Even though maybe they have a night shift, maybe they don't want to wake up on the adhan. Some are Americans, they're not Muslims. So you are in a Christian country — You can't force your religion to be part of their day. You can't, to be honest — Like if you were in Jordan, if you were in anywhere like that, you can do that. But like, you can't do that here. It's kind of an embarrassment too. It doesn't, doesn't make Islam better, you know? — Don't be bothering their ass.”
1:04

Muslim man who immigrated to America and assimilated has a message for Dearborn Michigan “You are in a Christian country — You can't force your religion to be apart of their day — You can't do that here” “To my Muslims in Dearborn, I just wanna say this. Islam is a great religion but you wanna know one thing. Not a lot of people understand that there is something called adhan at 5:00AM or 6:00AM in the morning that are gonna wake them up. Even though maybe they have a night shift, maybe they don't want to wake up on the adhan. Some are Americans, they're not Muslims. So you are in a Christian country — You can't force your religion to be part of their day. You can't, to be honest — Like if you were in Jordan, if you were in anywhere like that, you can do that. But like, you can't do that here. It's kind of an embarrassment too. It doesn't, doesn't make Islam better, you know? — Don't be bothering their ass.”

Wall Street Apes

767,785 次观看 • 9 个月前

David Friedberg explains that owning a home is worse than investing in stocks Calls it the "Great lie" FRIEDBERG: "This is one of the great lies. Convincing everyone that the great American dream is to own a house. When owning a house for a lot of Americans ends up putting all your capital in one asset, and you've got to basically get the price of housing to go up every year to keep everyone moving up the ladder." "So now, fast forward 30, 40, 50 years, young people can't afford to buy a house anymore because we've pushed the asset value up so much to try and make sure that everyone's got good household wealth." BARTLETT: "We are told. I mean, that's the sort of central idea once you leave university—is to figure out how quickly you can get a mortgage or buy a house." FRIEDBERG: "Great lie. It's one of the great lies. And there's a lot of countries where people have been able to accumulate capital and jump that ravine from labor to capital much more quickly when they don't buy a house because they can invest in stuff. They can buy, you know, the S&P 500, which you can just buy on an E-Trade or Robinhood account, and you can just own it; on average, it will make you 10-11% a year. You just put your money in that, you're making 10-11% a year, and it can go up every year, and you don't have to pay taxes. You don't have to pay property tax. You don't have to pay insurance. You don't have to deal with repairs and maintenance. All that sort of stuff. So, a lot of people would have been better off, depending on the markets that they're in. There's some markets that ballooned, but a lot of people would have been better off over the last 30 years actually owning the S&P 500 than owning their home and paying for the rent on a home."
1:09

David Friedberg explains that owning a home is worse than investing in stocks Calls it the "Great lie" FRIEDBERG: "This is one of the great lies. Convincing everyone that the great American dream is to own a house. When owning a house for a lot of Americans ends up putting all your capital in one asset, and you've got to basically get the price of housing to go up every year to keep everyone moving up the ladder." "So now, fast forward 30, 40, 50 years, young people can't afford to buy a house anymore because we've pushed the asset value up so much to try and make sure that everyone's got good household wealth." BARTLETT: "We are told. I mean, that's the sort of central idea once you leave university—is to figure out how quickly you can get a mortgage or buy a house." FRIEDBERG: "Great lie. It's one of the great lies. And there's a lot of countries where people have been able to accumulate capital and jump that ravine from labor to capital much more quickly when they don't buy a house because they can invest in stuff. They can buy, you know, the S&P 500, which you can just buy on an E-Trade or Robinhood account, and you can just own it; on average, it will make you 10-11% a year. You just put your money in that, you're making 10-11% a year, and it can go up every year, and you don't have to pay taxes. You don't have to pay property tax. You don't have to pay insurance. You don't have to deal with repairs and maintenance. All that sort of stuff. So, a lot of people would have been better off, depending on the markets that they're in. There's some markets that ballooned, but a lot of people would have been better off over the last 30 years actually owning the S&P 500 than owning their home and paying for the rent on a home."

Tony Jacob | FindaClip.com

449,725 次观看 • 13 天前

🚨WATCH: "The notion that me going for a walk in the woods is going to cause a fire, I can understand why people think that that's ridiculous, but the reality is it's not that you might cause a fire, it's that if you're out there walking in the woods and you break your leg, we're not gonna come and get you because we have emergency responders that are out focused on a fire that is threatening the lives of New Brunswickers." - Premier Susan Holt #Canada #NewBrunswick #NBPoli #Cdnpoli #wildfires
3:17

🚨WATCH: "The notion that me going for a walk in the woods is going to cause a fire, I can understand why people think that that's ridiculous, but the reality is it's not that you might cause a fire, it's that if you're out there walking in the woods and you break your leg, we're not gonna come and get you because we have emergency responders that are out focused on a fire that is threatening the lives of New Brunswickers." - Premier Susan Holt #Canada #NewBrunswick #NBPoli #Cdnpoli #wildfires

Jason Pugh 🇨🇦 🏳️‍🌈

318,526 次观看 • 1 年前

Ben Horowitz explains why AI killed the 'Mythical Man Month': "For my whole life in technology, there was this thing called the Mythical Man Month: nine women cannot have a baby in a month." "If you're Google, you can't just put a thousand software engineers on a product and wipe out a startup because you can only... build that product with seven or eight people. Once they've figured it out, they've got that lead." "That's not true with AI. If you have data and you have enough GPUs, you can solve almost any problem. It is magic." "You can throw money at the problem. We've never had that in tech." benahorowitz.eth with David Solomon and David Haber
1:11

Ben Horowitz explains why AI killed the 'Mythical Man Month': "For my whole life in technology, there was this thing called the Mythical Man Month: nine women cannot have a baby in a month." "If you're Google, you can't just put a thousand software engineers on a product and wipe out a startup because you can only... build that product with seven or eight people. Once they've figured it out, they've got that lead." "That's not true with AI. If you have data and you have enough GPUs, you can solve almost any problem. It is magic." "You can throw money at the problem. We've never had that in tech." benahorowitz.eth with David Solomon and David Haber

a16z

259,244 次观看 • 7 个月前

Threadguy explains how BAGS is the perfect example of chewing glass before success in Crypto “If there’s one thing I’ve learned from 5 years in Crypto it's that if you just hang around for long enough you will stumble upon your bag” "If you can just exist amongst a lot of money, euphoria and the things that happen in this space, if you can just exist and survive for long enough, if you can just be a cockroach trying shit. You’re kinda just guaranteed to hit the big one eventually. I kind of think that’s what’s happened to Finn BAGS”
0:33

Threadguy explains how BAGS is the perfect example of chewing glass before success in Crypto “If there’s one thing I’ve learned from 5 years in Crypto it's that if you just hang around for long enough you will stumble upon your bag” "If you can just exist amongst a lot of money, euphoria and the things that happen in this space, if you can just exist and survive for long enough, if you can just be a cockroach trying shit. You’re kinda just guaranteed to hit the big one eventually. I kind of think that’s what’s happened to Finn BAGS”

Jack

36,276 次观看 • 8 个月前

LeBron James explains what it takes to make a relationship last “It's not a bed of roses. If you're thinking that the roses don't come with thorns, then you're kidding yourself” “You've got to take the good with the bad, the great with the ugly. It's all part of a relationship and if you want to build with somebody, then you have to be able to do that” “I understand that we all want to be in relationships when we're laughing and we're joking and we're smiling and everybody's happy and everything is easy” “But can you stand the rain? Because it's not going to be a bed of roses. If you can accept that, then you can get through it”
0:35

LeBron James explains what it takes to make a relationship last “It's not a bed of roses. If you're thinking that the roses don't come with thorns, then you're kidding yourself” “You've got to take the good with the bad, the great with the ugly. It's all part of a relationship and if you want to build with somebody, then you have to be able to do that” “I understand that we all want to be in relationships when we're laughing and we're joking and we're smiling and everybody's happy and everything is easy” “But can you stand the rain? Because it's not going to be a bed of roses. If you can accept that, then you can get through it”

Jack

63,547 次观看 • 2 个月前

ELON MUSK: SpaceX will build a mass driver on the moon. "If you want to go beyond a mere terawatt per year, you have to go to the moon. So by having factories on the moon, building AI satellites and having a mass driver, which is the kind of thing you really need to learn about in read about in science fiction, but we're going to make it real. We're actually going to have a mass driver on the moon. And if you do that, you can go several orders of magnitude greater. You can go to 1000 gigawatts or more per year, and ultimately get to maybe a millionth, and then a 1,000th and maybe even a few percent of the sun's energy. I really want to see the mass driver on the moon that is shooting AI satellites into deep space just go like just one after the other. I can't imagine anything more epic than a mass driver on the moon and a self sustaining city on the moon, and then going beyond the moon to Mars, going throughout our solar system, and ultimately, being out there among the stars and visiting all these star systems, maybe we'll meet aliens. Maybe we'll meet see some civilizations that lasted for millions of years, and we'll find the remnants of ancient alien civilizations. But the only way we're going to do that, do that, do that is if we go out there and we explore, and this is the path to making it happen."
1:46

ELON MUSK: SpaceX will build a mass driver on the moon. "If you want to go beyond a mere terawatt per year, you have to go to the moon. So by having factories on the moon, building AI satellites and having a mass driver, which is the kind of thing you really need to learn about in read about in science fiction, but we're going to make it real. We're actually going to have a mass driver on the moon. And if you do that, you can go several orders of magnitude greater. You can go to 1000 gigawatts or more per year, and ultimately get to maybe a millionth, and then a 1,000th and maybe even a few percent of the sun's energy. I really want to see the mass driver on the moon that is shooting AI satellites into deep space just go like just one after the other. I can't imagine anything more epic than a mass driver on the moon and a self sustaining city on the moon, and then going beyond the moon to Mars, going throughout our solar system, and ultimately, being out there among the stars and visiting all these star systems, maybe we'll meet aliens. Maybe we'll meet see some civilizations that lasted for millions of years, and we'll find the remnants of ancient alien civilizations. But the only way we're going to do that, do that, do that is if we go out there and we explore, and this is the path to making it happen."

DogeDesigner

50,513,005 次观看 • 5 个月前