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NEWS: Amazon has unveiled its Starlink terminal competitor called Amazon Leo Ultra. • 1 Gbps download and 400 Mbps upload speeds • Full-duplex phased array technology • Amazon Leo silicon • Weatherproof • Integrated heat sink • 20" x 30" x 1.9" • Pole mount installation • Enterprise-grade terminal...

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Sawyer Merritt

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1,230,418 次观看 • 7 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Pumped to introduce the production version of our Amazon Leo Ultra antenna. Built to deliver secure, reliable connectivity for companies operating in remote areas. There’s so much invention packed into this final design, from the phased array architecture to the custom silicon, and it shows up in the performance: up to 1 Gbps down and 400 Mbps up, making it the fastest, most powerful customer terminal in production. New enterprise preview will give customers a chance to test it out in the field, and I can’t wait to see what they think. Check out the About Amazon article for more on the announcement:
0:20

Pumped to introduce the production version of our Amazon Leo Ultra antenna. Built to deliver secure, reliable connectivity for companies operating in remote areas. There’s so much invention packed into this final design, from the phased array architecture to the custom silicon, and it shows up in the performance: up to 1 Gbps down and 400 Mbps up, making it the fastest, most powerful customer terminal in production. New enterprise preview will give customers a chance to test it out in the field, and I can’t wait to see what they think. Check out the About Amazon article for more on the announcement:

Panos Panay

472,994 次观看 • 7 个月前

Excited to share new Amazon Leo Ultra is fastest satellite internet antenna ever built, delivering simultaneous download speeds up to 1 Gbps and upload speeds up to 400 Mbps, all powered by custom Leo silicon. Plus some more details on our network, which will offer enterprise-grade performance and advanced encryption, with secure private networking that bypasses public internet—connecting directly to AWS and other cloud and on-premise networks. Combo will be extremely valuable for the millions of enterprises, government agencies, and organizations operating in places without reliable connectivity. Team is also kicking off our enterprise preview with select customers using production hardware and software to gather feedback and tailor solutions ahead of next year's commercial launch. Lots of encouraging progress to bring connectivity to customers and partners who need it most.
0:39

Excited to share new Amazon Leo Ultra is fastest satellite internet antenna ever built, delivering simultaneous download speeds up to 1 Gbps and upload speeds up to 400 Mbps, all powered by custom Leo silicon. Plus some more details on our network, which will offer enterprise-grade performance and advanced encryption, with secure private networking that bypasses public internet—connecting directly to AWS and other cloud and on-premise networks. Combo will be extremely valuable for the millions of enterprises, government agencies, and organizations operating in places without reliable connectivity. Team is also kicking off our enterprise preview with select customers using production hardware and software to gather feedback and tailor solutions ahead of next year's commercial launch. Lots of encouraging progress to bring connectivity to customers and partners who need it most.

Andy Jassy

411,506 次观看 • 7 个月前

Amazon is the BEST stock in the Mag 7 and people are genuinely sleeping on it (Save this). Everyone knows Amazon but most people still think of it as the company that delivers their packages in two days and somehow also runs Netflix's servers. That mental model is about 5 years out of date. CEO, Andy Jassy dropped the annual shareholder letter today and it's worth actually reading instead of skimming the headlines because the numbers are wild. AWS AI revenue is running above $15 billion annually and that number is accelerating because every major enterprise on earth needs cloud infrastructure to run their AI ambitions and Amazon built the rails before anyone else knew what the train looked like. Their custom silicon play is the part the market still hasn't fully priced in. Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro are now at a $20B+ run rate together. Trainium chips are already heavily reserved across multiple generations. They're not just selling shovels for the AI gold rush, they're the ones who made the shovels, own the mine, and built the roads leading to it. The capex commitment alone should tell you everything about where this is going. $200 billion in 2026, almost entirely pointed at AI infrastructure. That is a company that knows exactly what it's building toward. On the physical side, grocery gross sales surpassed $150 billion in 2025. Project Leo already has 200+ satellites in orbit before the service has even launched. Over $4 billion is going into rural delivery expansion and 1 million robots are now deployed across their fulfillment network with AI making each one significantly more capable than the last. The advertising business quietly became a monster too. $70 billion annual run rate, rivaling YouTube in scale, but sitting on top of purchase intent data that no social platform can touch. When someone searches on Amazon, they are ready to buy and that is the most valuable real estate in digital advertising and Amazon owns it. 250 million Prime members who are deeply embedded in the ecosystem across shopping, streaming, grocery, pharmacy, and now healthcare. The switching cost is basically your entire life. Now here's where it gets interesting for us specifically. While the market was in full meltdown mode and everyone was panic selling anything with a ticker, our analyst at Milk Road made the call to buy Amazon. That position is now up over 10%. And every PRO member gets the alert the second it happens, the exact trade, the price, and the full rationale behind it. If you're already a PRO member, turn on trade notifications in your account settings so you never miss another one. If you're not a member yet, come join us, link below!
0:31

Amazon is the BEST stock in the Mag 7 and people are genuinely sleeping on it (Save this). Everyone knows Amazon but most people still think of it as the company that delivers their packages in two days and somehow also runs Netflix's servers. That mental model is about 5 years out of date. CEO, Andy Jassy dropped the annual shareholder letter today and it's worth actually reading instead of skimming the headlines because the numbers are wild. AWS AI revenue is running above $15 billion annually and that number is accelerating because every major enterprise on earth needs cloud infrastructure to run their AI ambitions and Amazon built the rails before anyone else knew what the train looked like. Their custom silicon play is the part the market still hasn't fully priced in. Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro are now at a $20B+ run rate together. Trainium chips are already heavily reserved across multiple generations. They're not just selling shovels for the AI gold rush, they're the ones who made the shovels, own the mine, and built the roads leading to it. The capex commitment alone should tell you everything about where this is going. $200 billion in 2026, almost entirely pointed at AI infrastructure. That is a company that knows exactly what it's building toward. On the physical side, grocery gross sales surpassed $150 billion in 2025. Project Leo already has 200+ satellites in orbit before the service has even launched. Over $4 billion is going into rural delivery expansion and 1 million robots are now deployed across their fulfillment network with AI making each one significantly more capable than the last. The advertising business quietly became a monster too. $70 billion annual run rate, rivaling YouTube in scale, but sitting on top of purchase intent data that no social platform can touch. When someone searches on Amazon, they are ready to buy and that is the most valuable real estate in digital advertising and Amazon owns it. 250 million Prime members who are deeply embedded in the ecosystem across shopping, streaming, grocery, pharmacy, and now healthcare. The switching cost is basically your entire life. Now here's where it gets interesting for us specifically. While the market was in full meltdown mode and everyone was panic selling anything with a ticker, our analyst at Milk Road made the call to buy Amazon. That position is now up over 10%. And every PRO member gets the alert the second it happens, the exact trade, the price, and the full rationale behind it. If you're already a PRO member, turn on trade notifications in your account settings so you never miss another one. If you're not a member yet, come join us, link below!

Milk Road AI

12,238 次观看 • 3 个月前

Mindblowing Explosion in USA Cape Canaveral 🤯 A Blue Origin rocket exploded during a routine ground test Yes they lost a New Glenn rocket Which can cost over $100 million But the bigger loss may be the launch infrastructure The static-fire test severely damaged the launch complex They’re saying that it has reportedly caused collapsing a lightning tower and destroying key support equipment Understand that the challenge is that Blue Origin has only one operational pad for New Glenn launches (unlike SpaceX, it has no backup site) The setback also affects Amazon’s Project Kuiper (Jeff Bezos’ answer to Elon Musk’s Starlink) The rocket was set to launch 48 satellites, though none were onboard during the test Amazon is already behind schedule in deploying its satellite network and faces regulatory deadlines New Glenn was expected to help speed up those launches Now with the rocket grounded and the pad damaged, delays are likely Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starlink continues to expand, with more than 7,600 satellites already in orbit And yes, no injuries were reported And Jeff Bezos says Blue Origin will rebuild ✊ But they are all saying that, repairing the launch complex could take far longer than replacing the rocket 🥲
2:03

Mindblowing Explosion in USA Cape Canaveral 🤯 A Blue Origin rocket exploded during a routine ground test Yes they lost a New Glenn rocket Which can cost over $100 million But the bigger loss may be the launch infrastructure The static-fire test severely damaged the launch complex They’re saying that it has reportedly caused collapsing a lightning tower and destroying key support equipment Understand that the challenge is that Blue Origin has only one operational pad for New Glenn launches (unlike SpaceX, it has no backup site) The setback also affects Amazon’s Project Kuiper (Jeff Bezos’ answer to Elon Musk’s Starlink) The rocket was set to launch 48 satellites, though none were onboard during the test Amazon is already behind schedule in deploying its satellite network and faces regulatory deadlines New Glenn was expected to help speed up those launches Now with the rocket grounded and the pad damaged, delays are likely Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starlink continues to expand, with more than 7,600 satellites already in orbit And yes, no injuries were reported And Jeff Bezos says Blue Origin will rebuild ✊ But they are all saying that, repairing the launch complex could take far longer than replacing the rocket 🥲

Shekhar Dutt

76,821 次观看 • 1 个月前

$AMD $AMZN partnership will 🚀 in 2026 🔥 Amazon/AMD partnership is hidden among hot headlines from OpenAI $NVDA $ORCL... TLDR: Amazon refused to bid up the overpriced $NVDA chips among other hyperscalers, and decided to work closely with $AMD. Amazon is expected to spend up to $10-$20B a year on 2026 EPYC breakthrough Gen and Future Gen. Dr. Su confirmed "we have plenty for other large customers". For its 2026 EPYC "Venice" processors, AMD is using a multi-node manufacturing strategy: the CPU core complex dies (CCDs) are built on TSMC's 2 nm-class node (N2), while the I/O die (IOD) uses the N3P (3 nm) process. Context: Andy Jassy Amazon Web Services has been working with AMD on EPYC processors since November 2018. With this "secret weapon" breakthrough(patented), this long time partnership has expanded to New breakthrough 2026 EPYC Gen. AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for AWS, enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. AMD to benefit AWS's $100B+ AI opportunity along with $ORCL $MSFT $GOOGL $META Saudi, UAE ,38+ countries and startups. In early October, Amazon/AWS announced the new EC2 M8a instances as their latest-generation, general-purpose compute instances now powered by AMD EPYC 9005 "Turin" processors. Amazon announced the M8a as having up to 30% higher performance and up to 19% better price performance over M7a. With my testing of both at 32 vCPUs, the new AMD EPYC Turin instance provided 1.59x the performance over the prior-generation EPYC Genoa instance! How will this impact AWS AI Inference? ~Cost Efficiency: Inference is 80%+ of AI workloads and latency-sensitive (e.g., chatbots need <1s responses). "Secret weapon" enables 35x better inference perf (per AMD's CDNA roadmap tie-in), cutting AWS's energy use by 50%+ in clusters. With $118B 2025 capex, this could save $20–$30B annually in OPEX, boosting margins to 35%-40%. ~Scalability for Agentic AI: Supports "Helios" rack-scale platforms (up to 128 GPUs + EPYC hosts), delivering 3.58x FP6 perf for distributed inference. AWS can run 700K+ more tokens/sec in 1,000-node clusters (via EPYC 9575F boosts), enabling real-time apps like personalized search or fraud detection at enterprise scale. ~Adoption Catalysts: Early partners like Oracle signal broad uptake; AWS's existing AMD instances G4ad with Radeon GPUs) pave the way. By 2026, EPYC could power 40%+ of AWS AI infra, outpacing Nvidia's GPU lock-in via open standards (ROCm 8 software). Lastly, Amazon’s trajectory toward a $320 stock price is not a speculative leap but a grounded projection rooted in its unmatched fundamentals and strategic AI leadership. With Amazon Web Services poised to surpass $100 billion in annual revenue by 2026, driven by explosive AI inference demand, Amazon is redefining cloud computing’s future. The adoption of AMD’s 2026 EPYC processors with "Secret" architecture is a game-changer, slashing costs by up to 50% and boosting inference throughput 3x, enabling AWS to dominate enterprise AI workloads with unmatched efficiency. This technological edge, combined with Amazon’s e-commerce dominance and high-margin advertising growth, supports a valuation rerating to 22x EV/EBITDA, and it is still a discount to historical highs. Trading at $222, $AMZN is undervalued for its 15–20% revenue CAGR and 25%+ EPS growth through 2030.
0:49

$AMD $AMZN partnership will 🚀 in 2026 🔥 Amazon/AMD partnership is hidden among hot headlines from OpenAI $NVDA $ORCL... TLDR: Amazon refused to bid up the overpriced $NVDA chips among other hyperscalers, and decided to work closely with $AMD. Amazon is expected to spend up to $10-$20B a year on 2026 EPYC breakthrough Gen and Future Gen. Dr. Su confirmed "we have plenty for other large customers". For its 2026 EPYC "Venice" processors, AMD is using a multi-node manufacturing strategy: the CPU core complex dies (CCDs) are built on TSMC's 2 nm-class node (N2), while the I/O die (IOD) uses the N3P (3 nm) process. Context: Andy Jassy Amazon Web Services has been working with AMD on EPYC processors since November 2018. With this "secret weapon" breakthrough(patented), this long time partnership has expanded to New breakthrough 2026 EPYC Gen. AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for AWS, enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. AMD to benefit AWS's $100B+ AI opportunity along with $ORCL $MSFT $GOOGL $META Saudi, UAE ,38+ countries and startups. In early October, Amazon/AWS announced the new EC2 M8a instances as their latest-generation, general-purpose compute instances now powered by AMD EPYC 9005 "Turin" processors. Amazon announced the M8a as having up to 30% higher performance and up to 19% better price performance over M7a. With my testing of both at 32 vCPUs, the new AMD EPYC Turin instance provided 1.59x the performance over the prior-generation EPYC Genoa instance! How will this impact AWS AI Inference? ~Cost Efficiency: Inference is 80%+ of AI workloads and latency-sensitive (e.g., chatbots need <1s responses). "Secret weapon" enables 35x better inference perf (per AMD's CDNA roadmap tie-in), cutting AWS's energy use by 50%+ in clusters. With $118B 2025 capex, this could save $20–$30B annually in OPEX, boosting margins to 35%-40%. ~Scalability for Agentic AI: Supports "Helios" rack-scale platforms (up to 128 GPUs + EPYC hosts), delivering 3.58x FP6 perf for distributed inference. AWS can run 700K+ more tokens/sec in 1,000-node clusters (via EPYC 9575F boosts), enabling real-time apps like personalized search or fraud detection at enterprise scale. ~Adoption Catalysts: Early partners like Oracle signal broad uptake; AWS's existing AMD instances G4ad with Radeon GPUs) pave the way. By 2026, EPYC could power 40%+ of AWS AI infra, outpacing Nvidia's GPU lock-in via open standards (ROCm 8 software). Lastly, Amazon’s trajectory toward a $320 stock price is not a speculative leap but a grounded projection rooted in its unmatched fundamentals and strategic AI leadership. With Amazon Web Services poised to surpass $100 billion in annual revenue by 2026, driven by explosive AI inference demand, Amazon is redefining cloud computing’s future. The adoption of AMD’s 2026 EPYC processors with "Secret" architecture is a game-changer, slashing costs by up to 50% and boosting inference throughput 3x, enabling AWS to dominate enterprise AI workloads with unmatched efficiency. This technological edge, combined with Amazon’s e-commerce dominance and high-margin advertising growth, supports a valuation rerating to 22x EV/EBITDA, and it is still a discount to historical highs. Trading at $222, $AMZN is undervalued for its 15–20% revenue CAGR and 25%+ EPS growth through 2030.

Mike

511,082 次观看 • 8 个月前

🚨 🚨 BEZOS HAS 3 OPTIONS LEFT AFTER NEW GLENN'S LAUNCHPAD EXPLOSION. ALL 3 ARE CATASTROPHIC. This is the moment nobody wants to talk about. After years of development, a $1B+ heavy-lift rocket program, and a final ground test before Amazon's Kuiper satellite mission → Blue Origin is now boxed into THREE choices. And every single one is a nightmare: ⚠️ OPTION 1: REBUILD LC-36 FROM SCRATCH – The only launchpad Blue Origin owns is now a debris field – One 600-foot lightning tower toppled. Erector-gantry: gone. Ground equipment: destroyed. – Pad rebuilds after a full vehicle explosion take 12–24 months minimum – Amazon's Kuiper constellation — already years behind SpaceX Starlink — falls further behind – Every month of delay costs Amazon market share it cannot get back ⚠️ OPTION 2: BORROW OR BUY LAUNCH CAPACITY FROM A COMPETITOR – The only competitor with available heavy-lift pads is SpaceX – Asking your direct rival for a launchpad is not a business negotiation — it's a surrender – SpaceX has every incentive to slow-walk, overcharge, or simply say no – Amazon would be funding the company that is actively destroying Kuiper's market window – Jeff Bezos built Blue Origin specifically to avoid this dependency ⚠️ OPTION 3: ABSORB THE DELAY AND KEEP INVESTING – New Glenn's first stage was enveloped in fire during a routine hotfire test — the final check before orbital flight – The vehicle collapsed. The upper stage tilted and fell. Fires burned at multiple stories – This wasn't a launch failure. This was a ground test. The hardest problems haven't even been attempted yet. – Blue Origin has no second pad, no backup vehicle, and no timeline for the next attempt – And Starlink already has 7,000+ satellites in orbit Let that sink in. There is no Option 4. There is no clean exit. There is no "we rebuild and catch up by Q4." The media is showing you "rocket science is hard" and "no injuries reported." They're NOT showing you that Blue Origin just destroyed its only launchpad — the single piece of infrastructure that connects years of development to an actual orbital mission — three hours before midnight on May 28, 2026. This is the most consequential single test failure any American space company has faced since SpaceX's Pad 40 explosion in 2016. Follow now → this story is moving fast. RT so others see what's really at stake. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 I'll keep you updated. Turn on notifications. 🚨
0:21

🚨 🚨 BEZOS HAS 3 OPTIONS LEFT AFTER NEW GLENN'S LAUNCHPAD EXPLOSION. ALL 3 ARE CATASTROPHIC. This is the moment nobody wants to talk about. After years of development, a $1B+ heavy-lift rocket program, and a final ground test before Amazon's Kuiper satellite mission → Blue Origin is now boxed into THREE choices. And every single one is a nightmare: ⚠️ OPTION 1: REBUILD LC-36 FROM SCRATCH – The only launchpad Blue Origin owns is now a debris field – One 600-foot lightning tower toppled. Erector-gantry: gone. Ground equipment: destroyed. – Pad rebuilds after a full vehicle explosion take 12–24 months minimum – Amazon's Kuiper constellation — already years behind SpaceX Starlink — falls further behind – Every month of delay costs Amazon market share it cannot get back ⚠️ OPTION 2: BORROW OR BUY LAUNCH CAPACITY FROM A COMPETITOR – The only competitor with available heavy-lift pads is SpaceX – Asking your direct rival for a launchpad is not a business negotiation — it's a surrender – SpaceX has every incentive to slow-walk, overcharge, or simply say no – Amazon would be funding the company that is actively destroying Kuiper's market window – Jeff Bezos built Blue Origin specifically to avoid this dependency ⚠️ OPTION 3: ABSORB THE DELAY AND KEEP INVESTING – New Glenn's first stage was enveloped in fire during a routine hotfire test — the final check before orbital flight – The vehicle collapsed. The upper stage tilted and fell. Fires burned at multiple stories – This wasn't a launch failure. This was a ground test. The hardest problems haven't even been attempted yet. – Blue Origin has no second pad, no backup vehicle, and no timeline for the next attempt – And Starlink already has 7,000+ satellites in orbit Let that sink in. There is no Option 4. There is no clean exit. There is no "we rebuild and catch up by Q4." The media is showing you "rocket science is hard" and "no injuries reported." They're NOT showing you that Blue Origin just destroyed its only launchpad — the single piece of infrastructure that connects years of development to an actual orbital mission — three hours before midnight on May 28, 2026. This is the most consequential single test failure any American space company has faced since SpaceX's Pad 40 explosion in 2016. Follow now → this story is moving fast. RT so others see what's really at stake. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 I'll keep you updated. Turn on notifications. 🚨

🇨🇳 Guo Shen 郭深

889,067 次观看 • 1 个月前

Microsoft is about to sue its own golden child. $14 billion invested. Exclusive cloud rights. The most important AI partnership in history. And Sam Altman just went behind their back with a $50 billion Amazon deal. Here's why they're betraying each other: When Microsoft first invested in OpenAI in 2019, they locked in ONE rule above everything else... ALL access to OpenAI's models must go through Microsoft's Azure cloud. No exceptions. That deal made Azure the backbone of the AI revolution. Every company using ChatGPT's API was paying Microsoft for the privilege. It was the smartest infrastructure play of the decade. Then last month, OpenAI quietly signed a deal with Amazon. $50 billion. AWS becomes the exclusive third-party cloud provider for Frontier, OpenAI's new enterprise AI agent platform. $138 billion committed to Amazon cloud services. Microsoft found out and got really angry.... A person familiar with Microsoft's position told the Financial Times today: "We know our contract. We will sue them if they breach it. If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them." That's basically a declaration of war. And here's where it gets crazy: OpenAI and Amazon are trying to build a technical workaround. A system called the "Stateful Runtime Environment" that runs on Amazon's Bedrock platform. Their argument is that the system "only" handles memory and context for AI agents using enterprise data on AWS. It doesn't technically "invoke" OpenAI's core models through Amazon. Microsoft's response: Bullshit. The workaround violates the spirit of the deal even if it technically dances around the letter. Amazon knows they're on thin ice too. An internal memo leaked showing Amazon told employees exactly what language they can and can't use. They can say Frontier is "powered by OpenAI" or "enabled by OpenAI." But they CANNOT say customers can "access" or "invoke" OpenAI models on AWS. When you're coaching employees on which verbs to avoid, you know you're in trouble. But here's the thing everyone seems to forget: OpenAI is planning an IPO this year. They just closed a $110 billion funding round last month. So if Microsoft sues, the IPO timeline is DEAD. You can't go public while your biggest partner and investor is suing you for breach of contract. Elon Musk is already suing OpenAI separately for abandoning its nonprofit mission. Two active lawsuits from two of the most powerful people in tech. Against one company trying to IPO. Good luck with that S-1 filing. But WHY did Altman do this? Microsoft gave OpenAI everything. Capital. Infrastructure. Distribution. Enterprise customers. And Altman's response was to secretly build an escape route through Amazon... Because he saw what was coming: Microsoft launched Copilot. Their own AI product. Competing directly with ChatGPT. Microsoft started building their own models. Hiring their own AI researchers. Reducing dependency on OpenAI. So Altman did the same thing back. Found another cloud provider. Started building leverage. Both sides were preparing for divorce while still living in the same house. So the $50 billion Amazon deal was just an insurance policy against the day Microsoft decides it doesn't need OpenAI anymore. And Microsoft caught him packing his bags. What happens next: The companies are still talking. Trying to resolve this before Frontier launches. But Microsoft has made their position clear. Litigation is on the table. If this goes to court, it sets a precedent for every AI partnership in the industry. Every cloud deal. Every exclusive licensing agreement. The entire AI infrastructure map gets redrawn. Sam Altman built OpenAI on Microsoft's money, Microsoft's cloud, and Microsoft's trust. Then he signed a $50 billion deal with their biggest competitor. In any other industry they'd call that what it is.
0:28

Microsoft is about to sue its own golden child. $14 billion invested. Exclusive cloud rights. The most important AI partnership in history. And Sam Altman just went behind their back with a $50 billion Amazon deal. Here's why they're betraying each other: When Microsoft first invested in OpenAI in 2019, they locked in ONE rule above everything else... ALL access to OpenAI's models must go through Microsoft's Azure cloud. No exceptions. That deal made Azure the backbone of the AI revolution. Every company using ChatGPT's API was paying Microsoft for the privilege. It was the smartest infrastructure play of the decade. Then last month, OpenAI quietly signed a deal with Amazon. $50 billion. AWS becomes the exclusive third-party cloud provider for Frontier, OpenAI's new enterprise AI agent platform. $138 billion committed to Amazon cloud services. Microsoft found out and got really angry.... A person familiar with Microsoft's position told the Financial Times today: "We know our contract. We will sue them if they breach it. If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them." That's basically a declaration of war. And here's where it gets crazy: OpenAI and Amazon are trying to build a technical workaround. A system called the "Stateful Runtime Environment" that runs on Amazon's Bedrock platform. Their argument is that the system "only" handles memory and context for AI agents using enterprise data on AWS. It doesn't technically "invoke" OpenAI's core models through Amazon. Microsoft's response: Bullshit. The workaround violates the spirit of the deal even if it technically dances around the letter. Amazon knows they're on thin ice too. An internal memo leaked showing Amazon told employees exactly what language they can and can't use. They can say Frontier is "powered by OpenAI" or "enabled by OpenAI." But they CANNOT say customers can "access" or "invoke" OpenAI models on AWS. When you're coaching employees on which verbs to avoid, you know you're in trouble. But here's the thing everyone seems to forget: OpenAI is planning an IPO this year. They just closed a $110 billion funding round last month. So if Microsoft sues, the IPO timeline is DEAD. You can't go public while your biggest partner and investor is suing you for breach of contract. Elon Musk is already suing OpenAI separately for abandoning its nonprofit mission. Two active lawsuits from two of the most powerful people in tech. Against one company trying to IPO. Good luck with that S-1 filing. But WHY did Altman do this? Microsoft gave OpenAI everything. Capital. Infrastructure. Distribution. Enterprise customers. And Altman's response was to secretly build an escape route through Amazon... Because he saw what was coming: Microsoft launched Copilot. Their own AI product. Competing directly with ChatGPT. Microsoft started building their own models. Hiring their own AI researchers. Reducing dependency on OpenAI. So Altman did the same thing back. Found another cloud provider. Started building leverage. Both sides were preparing for divorce while still living in the same house. So the $50 billion Amazon deal was just an insurance policy against the day Microsoft decides it doesn't need OpenAI anymore. And Microsoft caught him packing his bags. What happens next: The companies are still talking. Trying to resolve this before Frontier launches. But Microsoft has made their position clear. Litigation is on the table. If this goes to court, it sets a precedent for every AI partnership in the industry. Every cloud deal. Every exclusive licensing agreement. The entire AI infrastructure map gets redrawn. Sam Altman built OpenAI on Microsoft's money, Microsoft's cloud, and Microsoft's trust. Then he signed a $50 billion deal with their biggest competitor. In any other industry they'd call that what it is.

Ricardo

209,351 次观看 • 3 个月前

There's a reason Walmart's Vizio TVs are so cheap. Walmart paid $2.3 billion to put advertisers in your living room. Every new Vizio will not turn on without a Walmart account. Walmart paid $2.3 billion in December 2024 for the right to make that the rule. The TV was never the product. Vizio's hardware business runs at a wash. The Platform+ segment, which is essentially advertising and ACR data, accounted for all of Vizio's gross profit in the years before the deal. The TVs themselves were the customer acquisition cost. Walmart bought 19 million active SmartCast accounts. That base grew about 400% from 2018 to 2024. Every account is a household with a screen pointed at the couch every night. The mechanism is automatic content recognition. The TV reads frames from whatever you're watching and matches them against a database. Cable box, game console, DVD, the Walmart app on your phone over the same Wi-Fi. The source doesn't matter. The screen is the sensor. In March 2026, Walmart announced the account requirement at IAB NewFronts and turned on the flywheel. 19 million viewing households on one side. About 150 million weekly Walmart shoppers on the other. Run them against each other and you get closed-loop attribution: saw the ad, drove to the store, bought the product. CMOs have been trying to build that for 30 years. The comparison is Amazon. Amazon ran $68 billion of advertising in 2025, roughly 8% of its $830 billion in GMV. Walmart did $6.4 billion against $713 billion in sales. That's 1%. Same playbook, $50 billion of headroom. The margin gap is the punchline. Selling a TV nets low single digits. Selling an ad against that TV's viewing data clears 70%. $2.3 billion divided by 19 million households is $121 per living room. The TV is the cheapest thing Walmart has ever sold you.
1:55

There's a reason Walmart's Vizio TVs are so cheap. Walmart paid $2.3 billion to put advertisers in your living room. Every new Vizio will not turn on without a Walmart account. Walmart paid $2.3 billion in December 2024 for the right to make that the rule. The TV was never the product. Vizio's hardware business runs at a wash. The Platform+ segment, which is essentially advertising and ACR data, accounted for all of Vizio's gross profit in the years before the deal. The TVs themselves were the customer acquisition cost. Walmart bought 19 million active SmartCast accounts. That base grew about 400% from 2018 to 2024. Every account is a household with a screen pointed at the couch every night. The mechanism is automatic content recognition. The TV reads frames from whatever you're watching and matches them against a database. Cable box, game console, DVD, the Walmart app on your phone over the same Wi-Fi. The source doesn't matter. The screen is the sensor. In March 2026, Walmart announced the account requirement at IAB NewFronts and turned on the flywheel. 19 million viewing households on one side. About 150 million weekly Walmart shoppers on the other. Run them against each other and you get closed-loop attribution: saw the ad, drove to the store, bought the product. CMOs have been trying to build that for 30 years. The comparison is Amazon. Amazon ran $68 billion of advertising in 2025, roughly 8% of its $830 billion in GMV. Walmart did $6.4 billion against $713 billion in sales. That's 1%. Same playbook, $50 billion of headroom. The margin gap is the punchline. Selling a TV nets low single digits. Selling an ad against that TV's viewing data clears 70%. $2.3 billion divided by 19 million households is $121 per living room. The TV is the cheapest thing Walmart has ever sold you.

Aakash Gupta

1,383,744 次观看 • 2 个月前

This is WILD! One week before SpaceX's historic IPO, Google signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, and related infrastructure (Save this). That is $11 billion per year and up to $30 billion over the life of the contract. This comes less than a month after Anthropic committed $1.25 billion per month for full access to the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, 200,000+ GPUs, 300+ megawatts of power capacity, through 2029. Two of the most consequential AI labs in the world combined committed value over $70 billion. The question that haunted SpaceX's IPO roadshow was why did Elon keep spending billions constructing Colossus, Macro Hard and Macro Harder, three facilities totaling nearly 2 gigawatts of AI compute when xAI's revenue wasn't yet on the same trajectory as OpenAI or Anthropic? Wall Street was pricing in a risk that Elon was building capacity ahead of revenue which would mean sustained cash burn without a clear payback timeline. That concern was legitimate on its face, because xAI had been aggressive on model development but had not yet demonstrated the enterprise revenue numbers to justify the infrastructure cost. The answer is that the compute itself was always the product. Amazon has AWS, Microsoft has Azure, Google has Google Cloud, Elon just confirmed that he has been quietly building the fourth major hyperscale AI cloud and his first two paying customers are Google and Anthropic, the very companies most aggressively competing in the AI race. xAI's Colossus facility in Memphis was built at a speed that no traditional data center developer could match, it went from groundbreaking to operational in roughly 122 days. That is what happens when you have direct Nvidia relationships, a construction operation built around SpaceX-style execution, and a founder who treats infrastructure buildout the same way he treats rocket launches: compress every timeline and eliminate every bottleneck. The result is that SpaceX now has three operational facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder with Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell architecture running 1.2 gigawatts combined. Colossus 1, built on H100s and optimized for inference, is the facility that went to Anthropic first. The Blackwell-era facilities are where the next-generation training workloads happen and Google's deal suggests they are renting into that capacity as it comes online through the second half of 2026. Elon's compute leasing business would generate approximately $45 billion in incremental annual revenue on top of the mid-$20 billion range analysts had been modeling for SpaceX more than enough to fully subsidize the infrastructure investment and take the financial pressure off xAI delivering immediate AI product revenue. That changes the entire valuation conversation of SpaceX completely! Milk road remains bullish on Space and come join Milk Road Pro and get our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're thinking about the $1.75 trillion valuation and our entire AI thesis. Link below!
1:59

This is WILD! One week before SpaceX's historic IPO, Google signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, and related infrastructure (Save this). That is $11 billion per year and up to $30 billion over the life of the contract. This comes less than a month after Anthropic committed $1.25 billion per month for full access to the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, 200,000+ GPUs, 300+ megawatts of power capacity, through 2029. Two of the most consequential AI labs in the world combined committed value over $70 billion. The question that haunted SpaceX's IPO roadshow was why did Elon keep spending billions constructing Colossus, Macro Hard and Macro Harder, three facilities totaling nearly 2 gigawatts of AI compute when xAI's revenue wasn't yet on the same trajectory as OpenAI or Anthropic? Wall Street was pricing in a risk that Elon was building capacity ahead of revenue which would mean sustained cash burn without a clear payback timeline. That concern was legitimate on its face, because xAI had been aggressive on model development but had not yet demonstrated the enterprise revenue numbers to justify the infrastructure cost. The answer is that the compute itself was always the product. Amazon has AWS, Microsoft has Azure, Google has Google Cloud, Elon just confirmed that he has been quietly building the fourth major hyperscale AI cloud and his first two paying customers are Google and Anthropic, the very companies most aggressively competing in the AI race. xAI's Colossus facility in Memphis was built at a speed that no traditional data center developer could match, it went from groundbreaking to operational in roughly 122 days. That is what happens when you have direct Nvidia relationships, a construction operation built around SpaceX-style execution, and a founder who treats infrastructure buildout the same way he treats rocket launches: compress every timeline and eliminate every bottleneck. The result is that SpaceX now has three operational facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder with Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell architecture running 1.2 gigawatts combined. Colossus 1, built on H100s and optimized for inference, is the facility that went to Anthropic first. The Blackwell-era facilities are where the next-generation training workloads happen and Google's deal suggests they are renting into that capacity as it comes online through the second half of 2026. Elon's compute leasing business would generate approximately $45 billion in incremental annual revenue on top of the mid-$20 billion range analysts had been modeling for SpaceX more than enough to fully subsidize the infrastructure investment and take the financial pressure off xAI delivering immediate AI product revenue. That changes the entire valuation conversation of SpaceX completely! Milk road remains bullish on Space and come join Milk Road Pro and get our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're thinking about the $1.75 trillion valuation and our entire AI thesis. Link below!

Milk Road AI

760,588 次观看 • 1 个月前

Understanding the BitTorrent Swarm — A Broader Look With Real Data Dynamics BitTorrent isn’t just a file-sharing protocol; it’s one of the most efficient large-scale distribution systems ever designed. At its core lies a simple but powerful principle: when users contribute bandwidth, the entire network accelerates. This is the swarm and its efficiency can be explained through clear data patterns and network behavior. 🔹 The Swarm Model: How Participation Becomes Performance In a traditional client-server setup, bandwidth is fixed. If 10,000 users try to download a 1 GB file from one server with 1 Gbps bandwidth: ➠ Maximum theoretical throughput per user: 0.1 Mbps ➠ Average download time: 2–3 hours ➠ Server overload: very likely BitTorrent rewrites this logic. When 10,000 users join a swarm and each contributes only 50–200 Kbps of upload bandwidth, the network’s total available throughput multiplies thousands of times. This is why, in real swarm studies: ➠ Larger swarms consistently show 30–400% faster download speeds ➠ Popular torrents reach equilibrium within minutes, not hours ➠ Throughput per user remains stable even under heavy demand BitTorrent’s efficiency grows with usage — something centralized systems struggle with. 🔹 Why More Peers = More Speed (Backed by Data Behavior) BitTorrent breaks files into hundreds or thousands of small pieces. Each piece circulates among peers using a strategy called rarest-first ensuring no piece becomes a bottleneck. Here’s what the data shows: 1. Bandwidth multiplication effect If each peer contributes: ➠ 100 peers × 100 Kbps upload = 10 Mbps swarm capacity ➠ 5,000 peers × 150 Kbps upload = 750 Mbps swarm capacity ➠ 20,000 peers × 200 Kbps upload = 4 Gbps swarm capacity This turning point when collective bandwidth surpasses any server is why torrents of large files often download faster than centralized sources. 2. Availability resilience Even if 90% of peers leave, as long as one full copy exists across the swarm’s collective pieces, the file is recoverable without interruption. 3. Load balancing automatically occurs BitTorrent’s choking/unchoking algorithm ensures: ➠ High-bandwidth peers exchange more data ➠ Low-bandwidth peers still participate ➠ No single peer becomes a bottleneck The data flow adapts in real time based on peer performance. 🔹 The Swarm’s Global Impact: Why It Still Matters BitTorrent traffic routinely accounts for: ➠ 10–20% of global internet upload traffic (varies by region) ➠ Multiple petabytes of data exchanged daily ➠ Millions of active swarms at any given time The model works because it scales with demand: ➠ More users → more bandwidth. ➠ More bandwidth → faster delivery. ➠ Faster delivery → stronger swarm health. This “self-reinforcing cycle” is a core reason decentralized systems from Web3 storage to blockchain data sync borrow heavily from BitTorrent’s architecture. 🔹 The Big Picture The BitTorrent swarm illustrates an important truth about decentralized networks: Efficiency doesn’t come from the center it comes from participation. When thousands of people contribute small amounts of bandwidth, the result is a global system capable of speeds that outperform traditional content delivery models. This is not just technology; it’s cooperative acceleration at internet scale. In One Line Files move faster when everyone contributes and BitTorrent proves it with real data. H.E. Justin Sun 👨‍🚀 🌞 BitTorrent #TRONEcoStar #BitTorrent #SwarmNetwork #DataAnalysis #DecentralizedSystems #P2P
1:05

Understanding the BitTorrent Swarm — A Broader Look With Real Data Dynamics BitTorrent isn’t just a file-sharing protocol; it’s one of the most efficient large-scale distribution systems ever designed. At its core lies a simple but powerful principle: when users contribute bandwidth, the entire network accelerates. This is the swarm and its efficiency can be explained through clear data patterns and network behavior. 🔹 The Swarm Model: How Participation Becomes Performance In a traditional client-server setup, bandwidth is fixed. If 10,000 users try to download a 1 GB file from one server with 1 Gbps bandwidth: ➠ Maximum theoretical throughput per user: 0.1 Mbps ➠ Average download time: 2–3 hours ➠ Server overload: very likely BitTorrent rewrites this logic. When 10,000 users join a swarm and each contributes only 50–200 Kbps of upload bandwidth, the network’s total available throughput multiplies thousands of times. This is why, in real swarm studies: ➠ Larger swarms consistently show 30–400% faster download speeds ➠ Popular torrents reach equilibrium within minutes, not hours ➠ Throughput per user remains stable even under heavy demand BitTorrent’s efficiency grows with usage — something centralized systems struggle with. 🔹 Why More Peers = More Speed (Backed by Data Behavior) BitTorrent breaks files into hundreds or thousands of small pieces. Each piece circulates among peers using a strategy called rarest-first ensuring no piece becomes a bottleneck. Here’s what the data shows: 1. Bandwidth multiplication effect If each peer contributes: ➠ 100 peers × 100 Kbps upload = 10 Mbps swarm capacity ➠ 5,000 peers × 150 Kbps upload = 750 Mbps swarm capacity ➠ 20,000 peers × 200 Kbps upload = 4 Gbps swarm capacity This turning point when collective bandwidth surpasses any server is why torrents of large files often download faster than centralized sources. 2. Availability resilience Even if 90% of peers leave, as long as one full copy exists across the swarm’s collective pieces, the file is recoverable without interruption. 3. Load balancing automatically occurs BitTorrent’s choking/unchoking algorithm ensures: ➠ High-bandwidth peers exchange more data ➠ Low-bandwidth peers still participate ➠ No single peer becomes a bottleneck The data flow adapts in real time based on peer performance. 🔹 The Swarm’s Global Impact: Why It Still Matters BitTorrent traffic routinely accounts for: ➠ 10–20% of global internet upload traffic (varies by region) ➠ Multiple petabytes of data exchanged daily ➠ Millions of active swarms at any given time The model works because it scales with demand: ➠ More users → more bandwidth. ➠ More bandwidth → faster delivery. ➠ Faster delivery → stronger swarm health. This “self-reinforcing cycle” is a core reason decentralized systems from Web3 storage to blockchain data sync borrow heavily from BitTorrent’s architecture. 🔹 The Big Picture The BitTorrent swarm illustrates an important truth about decentralized networks: Efficiency doesn’t come from the center it comes from participation. When thousands of people contribute small amounts of bandwidth, the result is a global system capable of speeds that outperform traditional content delivery models. This is not just technology; it’s cooperative acceleration at internet scale. In One Line Files move faster when everyone contributes and BitTorrent proves it with real data. H.E. Justin Sun 👨‍🚀 🌞 BitTorrent #TRONEcoStar #BitTorrent #SwarmNetwork #DataAnalysis #DecentralizedSystems #P2P

catalina ossa

50,297 次观看 • 7 个月前

Elon Musk just confirmed the most INSANE IPO in history. SpaceX is going public in 2026. $1.5 TRILLION valuation. Raising $30+ billion. That's the biggest IPO ever made. Beating Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record from 2019. But here's what everyone's missing: This isn't about space tourism or Mars missions. Elon is literally about to win the entire AI race. And 99% of people have no idea how... Here's the problem killing every AI company right now: POWER. Oracle just reported earnings. They burned through $12 BILLION in one quarter building data centers. Their free cash flow? NEGATIVE $10 billion. Revenue missed estimates. Stock crashed 11%. Microsoft, Amazon, Google all scrambling to find enough electricity for AI training. The brutal math: The US generates 490 gigawatts of total power. AI is projected to need 123 gigawatts by 2035. That's a QUARTER of the entire electrical grid. Just for artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs says AI energy demand could jump 165% by 2030. There is literally not enough power on Earth to run AI at the scale these companies are promising. Every data center needs massive cooling systems. Billions of gallons of water per year. Insane energy costs. And the infrastructure can't keep up. Elon's solution? Stop building on Earth entirely. SpaceX is building data centers in SPACE. Not a concept. Not 10 years out. Literally starting in 2026. They're upgrading Starlink V3 satellites to carry AI computing chips. Each satellite gets 24/7 solar power. No clouds. No night. No weather disruptions. No grid bottlenecks. And the insane part is that Starship can deliver 300 to 500 gigawatts of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit every single year. At 300 gigawatts per year, the AI computing power in space would exceed the entire U.S. economy's total electricity consumption within two years. Just from satellites. Processing in orbit. While Oracle is begging banks for loans to finish data centers and OpenAI is stuck in circular funding arrangements with Microsoft, Elon already owns everything: The rockets. The satellites. The launch infrastructure. The AI company (xAI). He doesn't need to ask utilities for permission. Doesn't need grid approvals from local governments. Doesn't need to build nuclear plants or wait for clean energy. He just launches. And everyone else is scrambling to catch up: Jeff Bezos sees it. Blue Origin announced they're building their own orbital data centers. Google just launched "Project Suncatcher" with plans to deploy AI satellites by 2027. Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, literally BOUGHT an entire rocket company (Relativity Space) just to compete in this space. But they're all 3+ years behind Elon. SpaceX already has 6,000+ Starlink satellites in orbit. The infrastructure is built. The $30 billion from the IPO? Going straight into scaling orbital compute. SpaceX revenue is jumping from $15 billion in 2025 to $24 billion in 2026. Most of that from Starlink. Now add space-based AI infrastructure on top. Here's why this matters: Whoever controls orbital computing controls the AI revolution. And there's only ONE company on Earth with fully reusable rockets that can launch at the scale required. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, called space data centers "a dream." Translation: Nvidia is screwed if Elon actually pulls this off. Because if SpaceX succeeds, every AI company on the planet becomes Elon's customer. OpenAI needs compute? Running on SpaceX satellites. Google needs more capacity? Renting orbital infrastructure. Microsoft needs power? Paying SpaceX for launch and compute access. Elon won't just be in the AI race. He'll own the entire track everyone else is running on. The $1.5 trillion valuation sounds crazy until you realize what he's actually building. It's not a rocket company. It's the infrastructure layer for the next 50 years of computing. People calling it overvalued have no idea what's coming.
2:27

Elon Musk just confirmed the most INSANE IPO in history. SpaceX is going public in 2026. $1.5 TRILLION valuation. Raising $30+ billion. That's the biggest IPO ever made. Beating Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record from 2019. But here's what everyone's missing: This isn't about space tourism or Mars missions. Elon is literally about to win the entire AI race. And 99% of people have no idea how... Here's the problem killing every AI company right now: POWER. Oracle just reported earnings. They burned through $12 BILLION in one quarter building data centers. Their free cash flow? NEGATIVE $10 billion. Revenue missed estimates. Stock crashed 11%. Microsoft, Amazon, Google all scrambling to find enough electricity for AI training. The brutal math: The US generates 490 gigawatts of total power. AI is projected to need 123 gigawatts by 2035. That's a QUARTER of the entire electrical grid. Just for artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs says AI energy demand could jump 165% by 2030. There is literally not enough power on Earth to run AI at the scale these companies are promising. Every data center needs massive cooling systems. Billions of gallons of water per year. Insane energy costs. And the infrastructure can't keep up. Elon's solution? Stop building on Earth entirely. SpaceX is building data centers in SPACE. Not a concept. Not 10 years out. Literally starting in 2026. They're upgrading Starlink V3 satellites to carry AI computing chips. Each satellite gets 24/7 solar power. No clouds. No night. No weather disruptions. No grid bottlenecks. And the insane part is that Starship can deliver 300 to 500 gigawatts of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit every single year. At 300 gigawatts per year, the AI computing power in space would exceed the entire U.S. economy's total electricity consumption within two years. Just from satellites. Processing in orbit. While Oracle is begging banks for loans to finish data centers and OpenAI is stuck in circular funding arrangements with Microsoft, Elon already owns everything: The rockets. The satellites. The launch infrastructure. The AI company (xAI). He doesn't need to ask utilities for permission. Doesn't need grid approvals from local governments. Doesn't need to build nuclear plants or wait for clean energy. He just launches. And everyone else is scrambling to catch up: Jeff Bezos sees it. Blue Origin announced they're building their own orbital data centers. Google just launched "Project Suncatcher" with plans to deploy AI satellites by 2027. Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, literally BOUGHT an entire rocket company (Relativity Space) just to compete in this space. But they're all 3+ years behind Elon. SpaceX already has 6,000+ Starlink satellites in orbit. The infrastructure is built. The $30 billion from the IPO? Going straight into scaling orbital compute. SpaceX revenue is jumping from $15 billion in 2025 to $24 billion in 2026. Most of that from Starlink. Now add space-based AI infrastructure on top. Here's why this matters: Whoever controls orbital computing controls the AI revolution. And there's only ONE company on Earth with fully reusable rockets that can launch at the scale required. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, called space data centers "a dream." Translation: Nvidia is screwed if Elon actually pulls this off. Because if SpaceX succeeds, every AI company on the planet becomes Elon's customer. OpenAI needs compute? Running on SpaceX satellites. Google needs more capacity? Renting orbital infrastructure. Microsoft needs power? Paying SpaceX for launch and compute access. Elon won't just be in the AI race. He'll own the entire track everyone else is running on. The $1.5 trillion valuation sounds crazy until you realize what he's actually building. It's not a rocket company. It's the infrastructure layer for the next 50 years of computing. People calling it overvalued have no idea what's coming.

Ricardo

2,906,644 次观看 • 7 个月前

🚨ELON'S AUDACIOUS BET: THE EVERYTHING APP IS NO LONGER SCIENCE FICTION Western Silicon Valley has tried and failed repeatedly to build super apps. Facebook fumbled commerce. Amazon abandoned social. Every attempt to consolidate digital life into one platform collapsed under its own complexity. Elon just might succeed where they all failed, not through a moonshot, but through relentless interconnected systems that compound in value. Start with Community Notes. Instead of algorithmic gatekeeping or editorial boards, 133,000 crowdsourced contributors across 50 countries fact-check in real-time. Research validates it works: 97.5% accuracy on misinformation, users perceive it as more trustworthy than traditional fact-checking. Trust is the foundation of any financial platform. Elon built it first. XChat came next. Rebuilt in Rust with Bitcoin-style encryption, it's not just messaging. It's infrastructure for commerce. Vanishing messages. File sharing. Audio calls. Screenshot alerts. The messaging layer that WeChat used to conquer China now exists on X. Americans will soon send money, split bills, and buy products without leaving conversations. Grokipedia launched in October 2025 with 885,000 AI-generated articles powered by xAI. Wikipedia relies on volunteer consensus. Grokipedia leverages machine speed for knowledge curation. Knowledge drives shopping decisions. Knowledge drives investment decisions. Knowledge creates the reference layer for an integrated ecosystem. X Imagine generates content. Users post it. The algorithm recommends it. Creators get paid. More creators join. Network effects compound. By 2026, users can wake up, check X for news, chat with friends, generate marketing images, research topics, send money, and watch long-form video. All without switching apps. Previous super app attempts failed because they arrived too early, lacked critical mass, or felt like corporate Frankenstein's monsters. X has what they didn't: 600 million monthly users already spending time daily. Elon isn't asking Americans to adopt a new app. He's enhancing an existing habit. Timing matters. Consumers are AI-native. Fatigued by app-switching. Comfortable with cryptocurrency. Regulatory environments are more accommodating than five years ago. Mobile payments normalized during COVID-19. Most importantly, Elon has credibility. He transformed electric vehicles from niche curiosity to industry standard. Made private space exploration commercially viable. Revolutionized online payments with PayPal. X Money launches soon. When Americans actually consolidate financial lives into a social media app, we'll know if this is visionary foresight or spectacular overreach. Given his track record, betting against Elon accomplishing the supposedly impossible seems unwise. The everything app isn't coming someday. It's being assembled now, piece by piece, feature by feature. Source: Elon Musk X Ads
0:54

🚨ELON'S AUDACIOUS BET: THE EVERYTHING APP IS NO LONGER SCIENCE FICTION Western Silicon Valley has tried and failed repeatedly to build super apps. Facebook fumbled commerce. Amazon abandoned social. Every attempt to consolidate digital life into one platform collapsed under its own complexity. Elon just might succeed where they all failed, not through a moonshot, but through relentless interconnected systems that compound in value. Start with Community Notes. Instead of algorithmic gatekeeping or editorial boards, 133,000 crowdsourced contributors across 50 countries fact-check in real-time. Research validates it works: 97.5% accuracy on misinformation, users perceive it as more trustworthy than traditional fact-checking. Trust is the foundation of any financial platform. Elon built it first. XChat came next. Rebuilt in Rust with Bitcoin-style encryption, it's not just messaging. It's infrastructure for commerce. Vanishing messages. File sharing. Audio calls. Screenshot alerts. The messaging layer that WeChat used to conquer China now exists on X. Americans will soon send money, split bills, and buy products without leaving conversations. Grokipedia launched in October 2025 with 885,000 AI-generated articles powered by xAI. Wikipedia relies on volunteer consensus. Grokipedia leverages machine speed for knowledge curation. Knowledge drives shopping decisions. Knowledge drives investment decisions. Knowledge creates the reference layer for an integrated ecosystem. X Imagine generates content. Users post it. The algorithm recommends it. Creators get paid. More creators join. Network effects compound. By 2026, users can wake up, check X for news, chat with friends, generate marketing images, research topics, send money, and watch long-form video. All without switching apps. Previous super app attempts failed because they arrived too early, lacked critical mass, or felt like corporate Frankenstein's monsters. X has what they didn't: 600 million monthly users already spending time daily. Elon isn't asking Americans to adopt a new app. He's enhancing an existing habit. Timing matters. Consumers are AI-native. Fatigued by app-switching. Comfortable with cryptocurrency. Regulatory environments are more accommodating than five years ago. Mobile payments normalized during COVID-19. Most importantly, Elon has credibility. He transformed electric vehicles from niche curiosity to industry standard. Made private space exploration commercially viable. Revolutionized online payments with PayPal. X Money launches soon. When Americans actually consolidate financial lives into a social media app, we'll know if this is visionary foresight or spectacular overreach. Given his track record, betting against Elon accomplishing the supposedly impossible seems unwise. The everything app isn't coming someday. It's being assembled now, piece by piece, feature by feature. Source: Elon Musk X Ads

Mario Nawfal

177,168 次观看 • 8 个月前

Anthropic just had to throttle Claude’s thinking depth and cap usage for paying customers. Developers are switching to OpenAI Codex and the market is already sniffing out who wins from all of. Anthropic’s revenue tripled in one quarter to a $30B annual run rate, demand grew so fast that a single developer running an AI agent could drain a full day’s worth of compute in minutes. Anthropic had to reduce Claude’s default thinking mode, introduce peak-hour caps, and test pulling Claude Code off its $20 plan entirely and paying subscribers started hitting limits they’d never seen before. There are literally not enough GPUs to serve every request, even the hyperscalers can’t build fast enough, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are committing a combined ~$700 billion in AI capex in 2026, approaching 100% of their combined operating free cash flow. And it’s still not sufficient to meet demand. That gap is where the neocloud trade lives. CoreWeave, Nebius ($NBIS), IREN, and CoreWeave ($CRWV) exist because hyperscalers physically can’t scale fast enough. These companies accumulated $131 billion in enterprise GPU commitments from zero in under three years. CoreWeave alone has a $66.8 billion revenue backlog, Nebius is running at 98% capacity utilization essentially sold out. Synergy Research forecasts the entire neocloud market hits $400 billion by 2031, growing at 58% per year. Google just committed $40 billion and 5 gigawatts to Anthropic. And every AI lab is in the same position: they have the demand, they have the revenue, they are actively looking for anyone who can hand them compute today. If you can bring capacity online fast, you are golden. The AI labs can’t say no, they have no other options.
4:44

Anthropic just had to throttle Claude’s thinking depth and cap usage for paying customers. Developers are switching to OpenAI Codex and the market is already sniffing out who wins from all of. Anthropic’s revenue tripled in one quarter to a $30B annual run rate, demand grew so fast that a single developer running an AI agent could drain a full day’s worth of compute in minutes. Anthropic had to reduce Claude’s default thinking mode, introduce peak-hour caps, and test pulling Claude Code off its $20 plan entirely and paying subscribers started hitting limits they’d never seen before. There are literally not enough GPUs to serve every request, even the hyperscalers can’t build fast enough, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are committing a combined ~$700 billion in AI capex in 2026, approaching 100% of their combined operating free cash flow. And it’s still not sufficient to meet demand. That gap is where the neocloud trade lives. CoreWeave, Nebius ($NBIS), IREN, and CoreWeave ($CRWV) exist because hyperscalers physically can’t scale fast enough. These companies accumulated $131 billion in enterprise GPU commitments from zero in under three years. CoreWeave alone has a $66.8 billion revenue backlog, Nebius is running at 98% capacity utilization essentially sold out. Synergy Research forecasts the entire neocloud market hits $400 billion by 2031, growing at 58% per year. Google just committed $40 billion and 5 gigawatts to Anthropic. And every AI lab is in the same position: they have the demand, they have the revenue, they are actively looking for anyone who can hand them compute today. If you can bring capacity online fast, you are golden. The AI labs can’t say no, they have no other options.

Milk Road AI

46,800 次观看 • 2 个月前

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!
1:06

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

Mike

711,006 次观看 • 9 个月前

It's always energizing to do a podcast with Steve Yegge (Steve Yegge, engineer+author, formerly at Amazon+Google, creator of Gas Town). Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:43 Steve’s latest projects 02:27 Important blog posts 04:48 Shifts in what engineers need to know 10:46 Steve’s current AI stance 13:23 Steve’s book Vibe Coding 18:25 Layoffs and disruption in tech 31:13 Gas Town 40:10 New ways of working 51:08 The problem of too many people 54:45 Why AI results lag in business 59:57 Gamification and product stickiness 1:04:54 The ‘Bitter Lesson’ explained 1:07:14 The future of software development 1:23:06 Where languages stand 1:24:47 Adapting to change 1:27:32 Steve’s predictions Brought to you by: • Statsig – ⁠ The unified platform for flags, analytics, experiments, and more. • Sonar – The makers of SonarQube, the industry standard for automated code review. • WorkOS – Everything you need to make your app enterprise ready. Three interesting thoughts from Steve that we talked about in this conversation: 1. Reading ability is becoming a blocker for wider AI adoption. Some struggle with walls of text that current AI tools produce, and Steve predicts that in the very near future, most people will program by talking to a visual avatar, not reading terminal output because he observes that five paragraphs is already a lot to read for many devs. 2. What software engineers need to know keeps changing. In the 1990s, any decent software engineer knew Assembly, and today almost no decent developer knows it because Assembly has long been superseded by technical progress. What engineers “need” to know these days is different from the ‘90s and that process continues with AI, changing the parts of the craft that are essential for devs. We grumble about this but that won’t change anything by itself. 3. There’s a “Dracula Effect” where AI-augmented work drains engineers faster than traditional work. This is because AI automates the easy tasks, meaning that engineers are stuck doing high-intensity thinking all day. Steve says you may only get three daily productive hours at max speed, but during that time, you could produce 100x more output than before.
1:31:59

It's always energizing to do a podcast with Steve Yegge (Steve Yegge, engineer+author, formerly at Amazon+Google, creator of Gas Town). Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:43 Steve’s latest projects 02:27 Important blog posts 04:48 Shifts in what engineers need to know 10:46 Steve’s current AI stance 13:23 Steve’s book Vibe Coding 18:25 Layoffs and disruption in tech 31:13 Gas Town 40:10 New ways of working 51:08 The problem of too many people 54:45 Why AI results lag in business 59:57 Gamification and product stickiness 1:04:54 The ‘Bitter Lesson’ explained 1:07:14 The future of software development 1:23:06 Where languages stand 1:24:47 Adapting to change 1:27:32 Steve’s predictions Brought to you by: • Statsig – ⁠ The unified platform for flags, analytics, experiments, and more. • Sonar – The makers of SonarQube, the industry standard for automated code review. • WorkOS – Everything you need to make your app enterprise ready. Three interesting thoughts from Steve that we talked about in this conversation: 1. Reading ability is becoming a blocker for wider AI adoption. Some struggle with walls of text that current AI tools produce, and Steve predicts that in the very near future, most people will program by talking to a visual avatar, not reading terminal output because he observes that five paragraphs is already a lot to read for many devs. 2. What software engineers need to know keeps changing. In the 1990s, any decent software engineer knew Assembly, and today almost no decent developer knows it because Assembly has long been superseded by technical progress. What engineers “need” to know these days is different from the ‘90s and that process continues with AI, changing the parts of the craft that are essential for devs. We grumble about this but that won’t change anything by itself. 3. There’s a “Dracula Effect” where AI-augmented work drains engineers faster than traditional work. This is because AI automates the easy tasks, meaning that engineers are stuck doing high-intensity thinking all day. Steve says you may only get three daily productive hours at max speed, but during that time, you could produce 100x more output than before.

Gergely Orosz

41,987 次观看 • 4 个月前

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.
3:04

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

YeahDave

208,143 次观看 • 7 个月前

Larry Ellison borrowed $125 billion to bet everything on a single customer that LOSES $5 billion a year. American banks are already refusing to lend him another dollar. And now that single customer has started to slowly walk away. This is one of the biggest gambles in tech history - and it’s NOT looking good: Oracle has $124.7 billion in debt on its books right now. That's more than the GDP of 100+ countries. Their free cash flow over the last 12 months? Negative $13.18 billion. They are spending more money than they make. And they're doing it on PURPOSE. Every other hyperscaler funds their AI buildout with cash. Google has cash. Amazon has cash. Microsoft has cash. Oracle has IOUs. They raised $58 billion in debt in just two months. $38 billion for Texas and Wisconsin data centers. $20 billion for New Mexico. And they need another $100 billion on top of that. Even US banks are starting to say no. TD Cowen reported that multiple banks have pulled back from Oracle lending. Borrowing costs have roughly DOUBLED since September. They're now paying interest rates typically reserved for companies rated below investment grade. Barclays downgraded their debt to underweight and warned Oracle could run out of cash by November 2026. So what does Larry Ellison do? He FIRES 30,000 people. Oracle is planning layoffs affecting up to 18% of its entire workforce. The goal is to free up $8 to $10 billion in cash flow just to keep the lights on while they build data centers for ONE customer: OpenAI. Oracle's $553 billion backlog sounds incredible until you realize a massive chunk of it flows through a single relationship. If OpenAI sneezes, Oracle catches pneumonia. And OpenAI is already sneezing... Sam Altman DROPPED plans to expand the Stargate site in Abilene, Texas. And the reason is insane: Nvidia's chips are improving so fast that by the time Oracle finishes building the data center, the processors inside it will already be outdated. Oracle is building with Blackwell chips. But Nvidia's new Vera Rubin platform delivers 5x the inference performance at 10x lower cost per token. So Oracle is borrowing billions to build facilities that will house yesterday's technology before they even open. The world of bits moves faster than the world of atoms. And Oracle is trapped in between. But here's where it gets wild: The earnings call revealed something most people missed... Oracle now REQUIRES certain customers to buy their own GPUs upfront and hand them over. They call it the "bring your own chips" model. Translation: Oracle can't afford the hardware anymore. So they're asking customers to fund the construction of Oracle's OWN data centers. The stock is still down 23% this year even after the 12% earnings pop. Moody's rates Oracle just two notches above junk status. Lower than Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. And they have $248 billion in ADDITIONAL lease obligations that aren't even on the balance sheet yet. Larry Ellison is 81 years old and making the biggest bet in corporate history. He's trying to turn a legacy database company into a hyperscale AI cloud provider using other people's money. All while his only major customer is a startup that burns $5 billion a year and just had its expansion partner refuse to fund the next campus. The earnings beat was real. Revenue up 22%. Cloud infrastructure up 84%. But revenue growth funded by debt isn't growth. It's leverage. And leverage works both ways. If OpenAI stays loyal, if the Stargate buildout continues, if the debt markets keep lending, if Vera Rubin doesn't make their entire infrastructure obsolete overnight, then Larry Ellison pulled off the greatest corporate reinvention in history. But that's a lot of ifs for a company two notches above junk. Oracle is either the most undervalued AI play on the market or the most overleveraged house of cards since 2008. The next six months will tell us which one.
1:44

Larry Ellison borrowed $125 billion to bet everything on a single customer that LOSES $5 billion a year. American banks are already refusing to lend him another dollar. And now that single customer has started to slowly walk away. This is one of the biggest gambles in tech history - and it’s NOT looking good: Oracle has $124.7 billion in debt on its books right now. That's more than the GDP of 100+ countries. Their free cash flow over the last 12 months? Negative $13.18 billion. They are spending more money than they make. And they're doing it on PURPOSE. Every other hyperscaler funds their AI buildout with cash. Google has cash. Amazon has cash. Microsoft has cash. Oracle has IOUs. They raised $58 billion in debt in just two months. $38 billion for Texas and Wisconsin data centers. $20 billion for New Mexico. And they need another $100 billion on top of that. Even US banks are starting to say no. TD Cowen reported that multiple banks have pulled back from Oracle lending. Borrowing costs have roughly DOUBLED since September. They're now paying interest rates typically reserved for companies rated below investment grade. Barclays downgraded their debt to underweight and warned Oracle could run out of cash by November 2026. So what does Larry Ellison do? He FIRES 30,000 people. Oracle is planning layoffs affecting up to 18% of its entire workforce. The goal is to free up $8 to $10 billion in cash flow just to keep the lights on while they build data centers for ONE customer: OpenAI. Oracle's $553 billion backlog sounds incredible until you realize a massive chunk of it flows through a single relationship. If OpenAI sneezes, Oracle catches pneumonia. And OpenAI is already sneezing... Sam Altman DROPPED plans to expand the Stargate site in Abilene, Texas. And the reason is insane: Nvidia's chips are improving so fast that by the time Oracle finishes building the data center, the processors inside it will already be outdated. Oracle is building with Blackwell chips. But Nvidia's new Vera Rubin platform delivers 5x the inference performance at 10x lower cost per token. So Oracle is borrowing billions to build facilities that will house yesterday's technology before they even open. The world of bits moves faster than the world of atoms. And Oracle is trapped in between. But here's where it gets wild: The earnings call revealed something most people missed... Oracle now REQUIRES certain customers to buy their own GPUs upfront and hand them over. They call it the "bring your own chips" model. Translation: Oracle can't afford the hardware anymore. So they're asking customers to fund the construction of Oracle's OWN data centers. The stock is still down 23% this year even after the 12% earnings pop. Moody's rates Oracle just two notches above junk status. Lower than Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. And they have $248 billion in ADDITIONAL lease obligations that aren't even on the balance sheet yet. Larry Ellison is 81 years old and making the biggest bet in corporate history. He's trying to turn a legacy database company into a hyperscale AI cloud provider using other people's money. All while his only major customer is a startup that burns $5 billion a year and just had its expansion partner refuse to fund the next campus. The earnings beat was real. Revenue up 22%. Cloud infrastructure up 84%. But revenue growth funded by debt isn't growth. It's leverage. And leverage works both ways. If OpenAI stays loyal, if the Stargate buildout continues, if the debt markets keep lending, if Vera Rubin doesn't make their entire infrastructure obsolete overnight, then Larry Ellison pulled off the greatest corporate reinvention in history. But that's a lot of ifs for a company two notches above junk. Oracle is either the most undervalued AI play on the market or the most overleveraged house of cards since 2008. The next six months will tell us which one.

Ricardo

181,176 次观看 • 4 个月前

The market is watching xAI charge $50 billion per gigawatt and the rest of the neocloud sector run up is just getting started (Save this). According to Gavin Baker of Atreides Management, this is the most important number in AI infrastructure right now, xAI is monetizing compute at $50 billion per gigawatt on the Google deal, 2 to 3 times what any neocloud competitor charges. Google is paying $920 million per month for access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs through June 2029, and Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month for Colossus 1's 300 megawatts. Baker's point is simple that stop tracking rocket launches, stop tracking GPU orders, model gigawatt additions. At $50 billion per gigawatt, every new gigawatt that xAI energizes over the next 12 months is a revenue event that the market has not yet priced in. But this is not just an xAI story but rather why neocloud stocks are one of the most mispriced assets in the entire AI stack. Neoclouds charge $17 to $25 billion per gigawatt in contract value, a dramatic discount to xAI's pricing, but still an extraordinary business model when the underlying infrastructure costs $9 to $12 million per megawatt to operate and customers are signing 5-year locked contracts. H100 GPU-hours from neoclouds like Nebius at $2.95 per GPU-hour are 66% cheaper than hyperscaler rates, which is the structural reason enterprise AI teams are shifting spend to neoclouds at an accelerating pace. The neocloud market is projected to grow 69% annually through 2030 to reach nearly $180 billion and right now only a handful of public companies offer direct exposure to it. Nebius is the standout among the publicly traded neoclouds. It reported Q1 2026 AI cloud revenue of $399 million, an 841% increase year over year beating estimates, with its CEO stating that demand continues to exceed available capacity and customers are actively being turned away. Nebius commands a 20 to 25% revenue premium over peers thanks to its full-stack software offering, European sovereign positioning, and data residency advantages that physically prevent hyperscalers from competing for a large portion of its customer base. It has $49 billion in contracted backlog with Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia meaning its revenue trajectory for the next three to five years is not a forecast, it is a schedule. The competitive moat is in power, permits, and speed exactly what xAI has proven is the true bottleneck. Jensen Huang said publicly that xAI deploys data centers faster than anyone else in the ecosystem, and Baker called out that this deployment speed advantage directly translates to monetization speed, every week of earlier energization at these pricing levels is worth hundreds of millions in revenue. Neoclouds with secured power, permits, and long-term customer contracts are not in a fair race against companies still waiting on grid connections and zoning approvals. The companies with the most locked in gigawatts coming online in 2026 and 2027 are about to have very good years.
1:14

The market is watching xAI charge $50 billion per gigawatt and the rest of the neocloud sector run up is just getting started (Save this). According to Gavin Baker of Atreides Management, this is the most important number in AI infrastructure right now, xAI is monetizing compute at $50 billion per gigawatt on the Google deal, 2 to 3 times what any neocloud competitor charges. Google is paying $920 million per month for access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs through June 2029, and Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month for Colossus 1's 300 megawatts. Baker's point is simple that stop tracking rocket launches, stop tracking GPU orders, model gigawatt additions. At $50 billion per gigawatt, every new gigawatt that xAI energizes over the next 12 months is a revenue event that the market has not yet priced in. But this is not just an xAI story but rather why neocloud stocks are one of the most mispriced assets in the entire AI stack. Neoclouds charge $17 to $25 billion per gigawatt in contract value, a dramatic discount to xAI's pricing, but still an extraordinary business model when the underlying infrastructure costs $9 to $12 million per megawatt to operate and customers are signing 5-year locked contracts. H100 GPU-hours from neoclouds like Nebius at $2.95 per GPU-hour are 66% cheaper than hyperscaler rates, which is the structural reason enterprise AI teams are shifting spend to neoclouds at an accelerating pace. The neocloud market is projected to grow 69% annually through 2030 to reach nearly $180 billion and right now only a handful of public companies offer direct exposure to it. Nebius is the standout among the publicly traded neoclouds. It reported Q1 2026 AI cloud revenue of $399 million, an 841% increase year over year beating estimates, with its CEO stating that demand continues to exceed available capacity and customers are actively being turned away. Nebius commands a 20 to 25% revenue premium over peers thanks to its full-stack software offering, European sovereign positioning, and data residency advantages that physically prevent hyperscalers from competing for a large portion of its customer base. It has $49 billion in contracted backlog with Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia meaning its revenue trajectory for the next three to five years is not a forecast, it is a schedule. The competitive moat is in power, permits, and speed exactly what xAI has proven is the true bottleneck. Jensen Huang said publicly that xAI deploys data centers faster than anyone else in the ecosystem, and Baker called out that this deployment speed advantage directly translates to monetization speed, every week of earlier energization at these pricing levels is worth hundreds of millions in revenue. Neoclouds with secured power, permits, and long-term customer contracts are not in a fair race against companies still waiting on grid connections and zoning approvals. The companies with the most locked in gigawatts coming online in 2026 and 2027 are about to have very good years.

Milk Road AI

74,611 次观看 • 26 天前

* NEW FROM THE CHIRLA FILES * CHIRLA, the taxpayer-funded nonprofit that has been fomenting opposition to immigration enforcement in Los Angeles, owns a film production company that has produced a full-length feature. CHIRLA’s “beleaguered” Executive Director, Angelica Salas, is credited as the Executive Producer of the movie. Seems strange for a nonprofit, right? Pouring over its publicly available financial records, there appear to be a number of irregularities—though I do not have the expertise to form a definitive opinion about whether there was actual malfeasance. Here are the details. As background to CHIRLA’s film-making enterprise: In 2018, the organization produced a 20-minute short called “America, I Too,” which was shown at some film festivals. According to its website, this was “the second film in the series following the first short, ‘Know Your Rights’ created in 2007.” The video by that name that I found online is ten minutes long and has poor production values. CHIRLA incorporated its film company, called CHIRLA Liberty Film, LLC, in January 2019. It is entirely owned by the nonprofit, and its finances are consolidated in CHIRLA’s financial audits. The audit for the year ending June 30, 2019, lists film production costs in the amount of $242,413 and $28,764 from 2018, noting that they relate to the “various costs associated with the production of a film.” The audit, however, does not mention the existence of the film company. Strangely, CHIRLA’s Form 990 (the tax form filed by nonprofits with the IRS) for 2019 also does not reference either the company or the costs of film production. Every year beginning in 2019, CHIRLA’s audits state: “Upon completion of the film, the Organization will review its total revenue estimates from the film, which may result in a change in the rate of amortization and/or a write-down of the film production costs to fair value.” But confusingly, there are never any revenue estimates provided in any audit. The cost of the film production is simply listed as an asset each year. CHIRLA’s 2020 audit is the first to acknowledge the existence of the film company: “CHIRLA has teamed up with CHIRLA Liberty Films LLC to bring to life a dramatized film series about undocumented immigrants called Know Your Rights.” It’s a strange statement, given that the “Know Your Rights” video was produced in 2007. The 2020 audit lists $124,483 as an additional investment in the production of the unnamed film, and the Form 990 for that year lists a cumulative investment in film production of $366,896. Its financials for 2021 are essentially consistent, showing an additional $419,052 spent on the film, totaling $785,948. CHIRLA’s 2022 audit adds $151,658 in production costs, and the 2023 audit adds another $109,437, for a grand total of $1,047,043. Both audits state that the film still had not been completed as of June 30 of their respective years. But contradictorily, CHIRLA’s feature-length film—titled “America’s Family”—is listed on IMDb with a release date in 2022, and there are websites advertising showings in Los Angeles and Boston in June 2022—prior to June 30. Though CHIRLA’s Form 990s for 2020 and 2021 list a dollar value under “Investment in Liberty Film,” the Form 990s for 2022 and 2023 include no record of the investment in film production or acknowledgment of the wholly owned film company. After the initial showing of “America’s Family” in June 2022, the film had a number of additional showings in late 2023. In late 2024, CHIRLA presented the film for free or low cost at several local community centers in Mexico. It is now available for streaming on Amazon Prime. I know little about the film industry, but my suspicion is that the company may have spent more on these screenings than it earned in revenue. This brings me back to the auditor’s recurring statement: “Upon completion of the film, the Organization will review its total revenue estimates from the film, which may result in a change in the rate of amortization and/or a write-down of the film production costs to fair value.” Again, the audit does not include revenue estimates, so it is difficult to guess what this refers to. The $1 million spent on film production was considered an asset on financials. On what planet would this film break even? And what is the movie like? Judging from the trailer, it’s clichéd propaganda. It presents an idyllic life of a Spanish-speaking “American” family, suddenly torn apart by brutal ICE agents. You can judge its artistic merit for yourself. More important will be the judgment about the legality of CHIRLA’s financial filings.
1:02

* NEW FROM THE CHIRLA FILES * CHIRLA, the taxpayer-funded nonprofit that has been fomenting opposition to immigration enforcement in Los Angeles, owns a film production company that has produced a full-length feature. CHIRLA’s “beleaguered” Executive Director, Angelica Salas, is credited as the Executive Producer of the movie. Seems strange for a nonprofit, right? Pouring over its publicly available financial records, there appear to be a number of irregularities—though I do not have the expertise to form a definitive opinion about whether there was actual malfeasance. Here are the details. As background to CHIRLA’s film-making enterprise: In 2018, the organization produced a 20-minute short called “America, I Too,” which was shown at some film festivals. According to its website, this was “the second film in the series following the first short, ‘Know Your Rights’ created in 2007.” The video by that name that I found online is ten minutes long and has poor production values. CHIRLA incorporated its film company, called CHIRLA Liberty Film, LLC, in January 2019. It is entirely owned by the nonprofit, and its finances are consolidated in CHIRLA’s financial audits. The audit for the year ending June 30, 2019, lists film production costs in the amount of $242,413 and $28,764 from 2018, noting that they relate to the “various costs associated with the production of a film.” The audit, however, does not mention the existence of the film company. Strangely, CHIRLA’s Form 990 (the tax form filed by nonprofits with the IRS) for 2019 also does not reference either the company or the costs of film production. Every year beginning in 2019, CHIRLA’s audits state: “Upon completion of the film, the Organization will review its total revenue estimates from the film, which may result in a change in the rate of amortization and/or a write-down of the film production costs to fair value.” But confusingly, there are never any revenue estimates provided in any audit. The cost of the film production is simply listed as an asset each year. CHIRLA’s 2020 audit is the first to acknowledge the existence of the film company: “CHIRLA has teamed up with CHIRLA Liberty Films LLC to bring to life a dramatized film series about undocumented immigrants called Know Your Rights.” It’s a strange statement, given that the “Know Your Rights” video was produced in 2007. The 2020 audit lists $124,483 as an additional investment in the production of the unnamed film, and the Form 990 for that year lists a cumulative investment in film production of $366,896. Its financials for 2021 are essentially consistent, showing an additional $419,052 spent on the film, totaling $785,948. CHIRLA’s 2022 audit adds $151,658 in production costs, and the 2023 audit adds another $109,437, for a grand total of $1,047,043. Both audits state that the film still had not been completed as of June 30 of their respective years. But contradictorily, CHIRLA’s feature-length film—titled “America’s Family”—is listed on IMDb with a release date in 2022, and there are websites advertising showings in Los Angeles and Boston in June 2022—prior to June 30. Though CHIRLA’s Form 990s for 2020 and 2021 list a dollar value under “Investment in Liberty Film,” the Form 990s for 2022 and 2023 include no record of the investment in film production or acknowledgment of the wholly owned film company. After the initial showing of “America’s Family” in June 2022, the film had a number of additional showings in late 2023. In late 2024, CHIRLA presented the film for free or low cost at several local community centers in Mexico. It is now available for streaming on Amazon Prime. I know little about the film industry, but my suspicion is that the company may have spent more on these screenings than it earned in revenue. This brings me back to the auditor’s recurring statement: “Upon completion of the film, the Organization will review its total revenue estimates from the film, which may result in a change in the rate of amortization and/or a write-down of the film production costs to fair value.” Again, the audit does not include revenue estimates, so it is difficult to guess what this refers to. The $1 million spent on film production was considered an asset on financials. On what planet would this film break even? And what is the movie like? Judging from the trailer, it’s clichéd propaganda. It presents an idyllic life of a Spanish-speaking “American” family, suddenly torn apart by brutal ICE agents. You can judge its artistic merit for yourself. More important will be the judgment about the legality of CHIRLA’s financial filings.

Laura Powell

23,203 次观看 • 1 年前