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Nobody's talking about the helium problem. About a third of the world's helium supply which is critical to high-end chip manufacturing, is locked in Qatar. Iranian strikes have hit Qatari natural gas facilities, which is where helium production comes from and even undamaged supply can't ship because the Strait... of Hormuz is closed. Now the workaround is a pipeline through Saudi Arabia to the Suez Canal, BUT Iran's allies in Yemen have already flagged they're willing to shut that route down too. Tech prices were already multiple times higher than a year ago. Chips were already in short supply. AI companies and consumers are already fighting over the same inventory. It gets worse from here unfortunately unless something changes.show more

Philip DeFranco 👊🏻

1,036,096 subscribers

95,370 views • 6 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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23 Comments

Abi Conpropst6 months ago

yeah I don't think ppl talk about the MRI part enough...

Donte_Loves_Art6 months ago

Everything is getting to expensive. 😭

Philip DeFranco 👊🏻6 months ago

you gotta just buy more Trump Coin 🫠

Lindsay Grand Biscuits6 months ago

There is also the fact that helium is a nonrenewable resource.

J6 months ago

People barely talk about fertilizer too.

markers bust6 months ago

that's why they're "going back" to the moon. for that helium 3

Michael Molina6 months ago

this is a plotline in the tv series 'stick' on apple tv. wife wants to invest in a lot of money into helium industry.

Asian Boxing6 months ago

Gotta wonder how long it's going to take for companies in Tanzania (like Helium One) to be able to get things up and running properly there... Sadly worry it's too long

Angela F.4 months ago

That should knock the air out of Trump’s balloon.

Cobalt6 months ago

I bet Cobalt will be next... Not me, the element Cobalt

Akira6 months ago

just fyi, i think youtube shadow banned you or something because I suddenly now have to actively look for your youtube videos now instead of just getting notified and or being immediately in the front like normal (12yr follower)

Mike Pflanzer6 months ago

No one cares.

AROveranalysis20456 months ago

So glad your channel fell off

📺 // MeshTV - tv.meshnews.org6 months ago

This segment is great But came by to give you props for reporting on Section 230 in fairness doctrine reporting format on your most recent "Maga Civil War" episode (March 26th 2026) Mad respect ✊🏽

Apple Pi6 months ago

LOL

Jonathan Betts/Jonafinium6 months ago

I wish we lived in a world where Iran addresses this problem with one of their guys in military uniforms but when he speaks they put a helium filter on his voice, I think it would be a step toward world peace.

dakota ball6 months ago

Hey why do u give this guy fluff

Decent Takes By Jimbo6 months ago

You look like Rachel Maddow….

Philip DeFranco 👊🏻6 months ago

tell me about it. It's one of the reasons why I don't wear glasses anymore. 🤣🤣🤣

StirnerRulez6 months ago

@bourbonjimbo

Decent Takes By Jimbo6 months ago

He thought it was a compliment….it was not…

Jim6 months ago

And fertilizer is now not available

Jim6 months ago

And MRI machines

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🇶🇦 Semiconductor stocks are dropping as markets react to a potential helium supply shock tied to disruptions in Qatar, a major global supplier. Helium is critical for cooling in chip manufacturing, and countries like South Korea and Taiwan depend heavily on Qatari supply for companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC. Any prolonged disruption risks slowing production across the global chip chain,and markets are already pricing in that worst-case scenario. The supply chain stress is showing up in real time. Source: Bloomberg, The Compound

🇶🇦 Semiconductor stocks are dropping as markets react to a potential helium supply shock tied to disruptions in Qatar, a major global supplier. Helium is critical for cooling in chip manufacturing, and countries like South Korea and Taiwan depend heavily on Qatari supply for companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC. Any prolonged disruption risks slowing production across the global chip chain,and markets are already pricing in that worst-case scenario. The supply chain stress is showing up in real time. Source: Bloomberg, The Compound

Mario Nawfal

46,860 views • 6 months ago

🇮🇷 Iran war just lit a fuse on global supply chains: Strait of Hormuz chaos is choking routes for critical minerals powering AI, EVs, and U.S. weapons. Helium prices already +40%, sulfur shortages hitting chips/fertilizers, aluminum plants in Gulf shutting down, China's rare earth monopoly makes it worse as everyone scrambles. Source: The National

🇮🇷 Iran war just lit a fuse on global supply chains: Strait of Hormuz chaos is choking routes for critical minerals powering AI, EVs, and U.S. weapons. Helium prices already +40%, sulfur shortages hitting chips/fertilizers, aluminum plants in Gulf shutting down, China's rare earth monopoly makes it worse as everyone scrambles. Source: The National

Mario Nawfal

80,891 views • 6 months ago

🇹🇼🇮🇷 The Iran war's most dangerous casualty might be your phone... Taiwan makes 90% of the world's advanced chips. Those chips need two things from the Strait of Hormuz: helium from Qatar to cool silicon wafers during manufacturing, and LNG to keep the power on. Taiwan gets roughly 70% of its helium and a third of its electricity fuel from the Gulf. The island has 11 days of LNG storage. Helium evaporates from tanks within 45 days regardless. Qatar's Ras Laffan has been bombed multiple times. A third of global helium supply vanished overnight. TSMC alone uses 10% of Taiwan's entire electricity output. No power, no chips. No chips, no phones, no cars, no AI servers, no modern economy. Put simply: Tech giants are spending $650 billion this year on AI infrastructure that depends on a supply chain running through a warzone. Source: Substack, Futurism, Atlantic Council Clip: Shawn Ryan

🇹🇼🇮🇷 The Iran war's most dangerous casualty might be your phone... Taiwan makes 90% of the world's advanced chips. Those chips need two things from the Strait of Hormuz: helium from Qatar to cool silicon wafers during manufacturing, and LNG to keep the power on. Taiwan gets roughly 70% of its helium and a third of its electricity fuel from the Gulf. The island has 11 days of LNG storage. Helium evaporates from tanks within 45 days regardless. Qatar's Ras Laffan has been bombed multiple times. A third of global helium supply vanished overnight. TSMC alone uses 10% of Taiwan's entire electricity output. No power, no chips. No chips, no phones, no cars, no AI servers, no modern economy. Put simply: Tech giants are spending $650 billion this year on AI infrastructure that depends on a supply chain running through a warzone. Source: Substack, Futurism, Atlantic Council Clip: Shawn Ryan

Mario Nawfal

276,733 views • 6 months ago

Recent attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf are having major global consequences. Critical LNG facilities have been knocked offline for years, and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is restricting supply. Gas prices have surged (nearly doubling in the UK), pushing up inflation and shifting expectations toward higher interest rates and borrowing costs. The UK and Europe are particularly vulnerable due to increasing reliance on imported LNG, raising longer-term energy security concerns. Beyond energy, reduced production of ammonia, helium, and other byproducts is likely to impact food supply, healthcare, and semiconductor manufacturing worldwide. Source: Ed Conway

Recent attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf are having major global consequences. Critical LNG facilities have been knocked offline for years, and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is restricting supply. Gas prices have surged (nearly doubling in the UK), pushing up inflation and shifting expectations toward higher interest rates and borrowing costs. The UK and Europe are particularly vulnerable due to increasing reliance on imported LNG, raising longer-term energy security concerns. Beyond energy, reduced production of ammonia, helium, and other byproducts is likely to impact food supply, healthcare, and semiconductor manufacturing worldwide. Source: Ed Conway

Clash Report

23,822 views • 6 months ago

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.

Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial

214,884 views • 23 days ago

I think the president is absolutely paying a political price for $4 gasoline right now, especially as the midterm narrative is already starting much earlier than usual. But what happens between now and November is still unknown. If oil prices fall back to the $70–$75 range, gas prices could stop being a major issue altogether. The challenge is timing even if oil drops immediately, there’s still oil sitting in inventory, tankers already on the water, and supply moving through refineries at higher prices. Realistically, it would take about three weeks for consumers to fully feel lower gas prices at the pump.

I think the president is absolutely paying a political price for $4 gasoline right now, especially as the midterm narrative is already starting much earlier than usual. But what happens between now and November is still unknown. If oil prices fall back to the $70–$75 range, gas prices could stop being a major issue altogether. The challenge is timing even if oil drops immediately, there’s still oil sitting in inventory, tankers already on the water, and supply moving through refineries at higher prices. Realistically, it would take about three weeks for consumers to fully feel lower gas prices at the pump.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

77,139 views • 4 months ago

The world now has at least 20% less liquefied natural gas than it needs if it were to have followed trends in place before the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Whenever there is a supply limitation, there is only one way to rectify it: price. Prices have to rise to a level so that demand gets pinched off. Full report:

The world now has at least 20% less liquefied natural gas than it needs if it were to have followed trends in place before the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Whenever there is a supply limitation, there is only one way to rectify it: price. Prices have to rise to a level so that demand gets pinched off. Full report:

Chris Martenson

12,447 views • 4 months ago

The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet. Two days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. Everyone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine. But the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it. Spirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last: The Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is "on the verge of closing down." Ryanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. Air France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left. And here's where it gets really bad... Airlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food: One-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. Nitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely. This has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. The Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May. Nitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. You can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said. We're in it. Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have. And nobody has a Plan B. G7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. There is no workaround. And it doesn't stop at food. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication There is no substitute. Iranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. Spot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. Those are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question: Where is the helium coming from? And this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up. Hormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor: Trump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. Midterms are only 6 months out. Iran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed. The Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends. Meanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other: Iran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. The global economy is caught between two walls closing in. Markets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. The fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink. I've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished. Energy is the trade. Spirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet. Two days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. Everyone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine. But the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it. Spirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last: The Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is "on the verge of closing down." Ryanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. Air France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left. And here's where it gets really bad... Airlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food: One-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. Nitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely. This has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. The Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May. Nitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. You can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said. We're in it. Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have. And nobody has a Plan B. G7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. There is no workaround. And it doesn't stop at food. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication There is no substitute. Iranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. Spot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. Those are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question: Where is the helium coming from? And this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up. Hormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor: Trump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. Midterms are only 6 months out. Iran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed. The Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends. Meanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other: Iran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. The global economy is caught between two walls closing in. Markets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. The fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink. I've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished. Energy is the trade. Spirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.

George Noble

71,283 views • 5 months ago

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are foundational to energy security, and without energy security, we have nothing. If you were listening to this conversation in 2023, you would have thought it was all about production… That is a big part, but as we have recently learned, the Gulf countries ALSO play an irreplaceable role in ensuring the movement of hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz to consumers around the globe. The security of the hydrocarbon supply chain is currently being tested. Since that conversation in May 2023, there is 20% less oil and liquified natural gas on the market, and the price of Brent crude is 40% higher. As a consequence the cost of everything we touch and consume is escalating at an alarming rate. Gulf countries play a more vital role than ever in ensuring energy security for the prosperity of all.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are foundational to energy security, and without energy security, we have nothing. If you were listening to this conversation in 2023, you would have thought it was all about production… That is a big part, but as we have recently learned, the Gulf countries ALSO play an irreplaceable role in ensuring the movement of hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz to consumers around the globe. The security of the hydrocarbon supply chain is currently being tested. Since that conversation in May 2023, there is 20% less oil and liquified natural gas on the market, and the price of Brent crude is 40% higher. As a consequence the cost of everything we touch and consume is escalating at an alarming rate. Gulf countries play a more vital role than ever in ensuring energy security for the prosperity of all.

Robert Friedland

11,033 views • 4 months ago

The Strait of Hormuz is now officially shut. Iran has even warned it may fire on any ships attempting to cross it. But here's why the Strait of Hormuz matters: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 21 mile wide passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through that chokepoint every single day. This is a chokepoint the entire global economy depends on. This appears to be Iran’s strategy: 1. Shut the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Constrict global oil supply. 3. Drive oil prices higher (Brent crude is already at its highest level in two years). 4. Increase inflationary pressure and economic stress globally. 5. Force major economies to pressure the US to de-escalate in exchange for reopening the Strait. It’s economic leverage through geography. Even without matching military scale, controlling a vital trade channel gives Iran the ability to impact global economies. The longer it’s closed, the bigger the problem.

The Strait of Hormuz is now officially shut. Iran has even warned it may fire on any ships attempting to cross it. But here's why the Strait of Hormuz matters: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 21 mile wide passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through that chokepoint every single day. This is a chokepoint the entire global economy depends on. This appears to be Iran’s strategy: 1. Shut the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Constrict global oil supply. 3. Drive oil prices higher (Brent crude is already at its highest level in two years). 4. Increase inflationary pressure and economic stress globally. 5. Force major economies to pressure the US to de-escalate in exchange for reopening the Strait. It’s economic leverage through geography. Even without matching military scale, controlling a vital trade channel gives Iran the ability to impact global economies. The longer it’s closed, the bigger the problem.

Milk Road Macro

194,809 views • 7 months ago

CoreWeave and Nebius are not tech companies. They are equipment leasing businesses. Jim Chanos on iConnections: strip the AI narrative and you have companies that buy GPUs from $NVDA and rent them to hyperscalers. The economics confirm it - mid-to-high single-digit pre-tax returns on capital where the data is available. His rule: a middleman in a supply chain should never trade at a higher multiple than the company that controls its supply. Nvidia sets GPU prices. CoreWeave takes them. TSMC sets chip supply. Neo clouds depend on it. The market has this relationship inverted. That is the compression trade. Full supply chain breakdown and what it means for neo cloud valuations: Source: iConnections -

CoreWeave and Nebius are not tech companies. They are equipment leasing businesses. Jim Chanos on iConnections: strip the AI narrative and you have companies that buy GPUs from $NVDA and rent them to hyperscalers. The economics confirm it - mid-to-high single-digit pre-tax returns on capital where the data is available. His rule: a middleman in a supply chain should never trade at a higher multiple than the company that controls its supply. Nvidia sets GPU prices. CoreWeave takes them. TSMC sets chip supply. Neo clouds depend on it. The market has this relationship inverted. That is the compression trade. Full supply chain breakdown and what it means for neo cloud valuations: Source: iConnections -

Podcast Alpha

65,844 views • 3 months ago

VIDEO: Sec. Of State Marco Rubio Says The Goal Of The War In Iran Is Now To Return The Strait Of Hormuz Back To The Way It Was Before Trump Started The War! Alex Jones Responds, "The Hourglass Is Running Fast On Inflation, Stagflation, The Fertilizer, Oil, Gas, Rare Erath Minerals, Helium For Microchip Manufacturing- All Economists Agree This Is Already A Major Problem In The World Economy, But We Were Told By The NeoCons That This Would Only Last 4 Days!" 🔴WATCH ALEX JONES LIVE NOW:

VIDEO: Sec. Of State Marco Rubio Says The Goal Of The War In Iran Is Now To Return The Strait Of Hormuz Back To The Way It Was Before Trump Started The War! Alex Jones Responds, "The Hourglass Is Running Fast On Inflation, Stagflation, The Fertilizer, Oil, Gas, Rare Erath Minerals, Helium For Microchip Manufacturing- All Economists Agree This Is Already A Major Problem In The World Economy, But We Were Told By The NeoCons That This Would Only Last 4 Days!" 🔴WATCH ALEX JONES LIVE NOW:

Alex Jones

91,573 views • 2 months ago

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb and the Saudi pipeline are all getting squeezed at once... and it doesn't look like an accident. Analyst Matt Tardio sees Iran working through every oil route out of the Gulf one by one, and he's blunt about who feels it: "40% of the US diesel supply comes out of the Persian Gulf." Europe is ALREADY in trouble, and America sits a lot closer to that same edge than Washington wants to admit. Matt Tardio

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb and the Saudi pipeline are all getting squeezed at once... and it doesn't look like an accident. Analyst Matt Tardio sees Iran working through every oil route out of the Gulf one by one, and he's blunt about who feels it: "40% of the US diesel supply comes out of the Persian Gulf." Europe is ALREADY in trouble, and America sits a lot closer to that same edge than Washington wants to admit. Matt Tardio

Mario Nawfal

50,548 views • 23 hours ago

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,266 views • 3 months ago

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Jeffrey P. Snider

30,004 views • 2 months ago

HOUTHIS HIT ARAMCO FACILITY AT PORT OF JIZAN — ENTIRE SITE BURNING Right before the US elections. Right after the East-West Pipeline strike. Right after Saudi admitted production is at 1990 lows. The world is on fire. Fertilizer, petrochemicals, transport costs — all spiking. Food prices will follow. In a few months, people will starve. Saudi Arabia finds itself in a catastrophic situation. With the latest strike on the Abqaiq-to-Yanbu pipeline—which served as the last remaining route for oil exports following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—Saudi Arabia has essentially ceased exporting oil; Furthermore, it has already applied for a massive loan from the World Bank due to its dire economic state. The fall of the Bab al-Mandab Strait into Houthi hands represents yet another disaster of unprecedented proportions for the Saudis, who were already seeing 50% of their ships attacked and blocked. It is truly baffling to imagine how they will extricate themselves from this quagmire they have plunged into.

HOUTHIS HIT ARAMCO FACILITY AT PORT OF JIZAN — ENTIRE SITE BURNING Right before the US elections. Right after the East-West Pipeline strike. Right after Saudi admitted production is at 1990 lows. The world is on fire. Fertilizer, petrochemicals, transport costs — all spiking. Food prices will follow. In a few months, people will starve. Saudi Arabia finds itself in a catastrophic situation. With the latest strike on the Abqaiq-to-Yanbu pipeline—which served as the last remaining route for oil exports following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—Saudi Arabia has essentially ceased exporting oil; Furthermore, it has already applied for a massive loan from the World Bank due to its dire economic state. The fall of the Bab al-Mandab Strait into Houthi hands represents yet another disaster of unprecedented proportions for the Saudis, who were already seeing 50% of their ships attacked and blocked. It is truly baffling to imagine how they will extricate themselves from this quagmire they have plunged into.

Tomthunkit™

93,318 views • 25 days ago

🚨 JUST NOW: VP JD Vance says oil production is surging even BEFORE President Trump stunned the world with a 65 billion oil reserves deal in Venezuela "We're actually already seeing significant increase in oil production out of Venezuela, which is one of the reasons why, despite a lot of people predicting that oil prices would go to $200 a barrel, they're obviously higher than they were a few months ago, but they're sort of much more stable in part because what we see coming out of Venezuela." "I think that we are going to see significant increase in production. The 65 billion barrel reserve is a big part of that, but I think it's a mistake to say when will we see increased production because we're already seeing increased production already!" 🇺🇸🇻🇪

🚨 JUST NOW: VP JD Vance says oil production is surging even BEFORE President Trump stunned the world with a 65 billion oil reserves deal in Venezuela "We're actually already seeing significant increase in oil production out of Venezuela, which is one of the reasons why, despite a lot of people predicting that oil prices would go to $200 a barrel, they're obviously higher than they were a few months ago, but they're sort of much more stable in part because what we see coming out of Venezuela." "I think that we are going to see significant increase in production. The 65 billion barrel reserve is a big part of that, but I think it's a mistake to say when will we see increased production because we're already seeing increased production already!" 🇺🇸🇻🇪

Eric Daugherty

46,763 views • 1 month ago

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump recommends chip manufacturers IMMEDIATELY move their manufacturing facilities to AMERICA, as conversations with Xi confirmed how eager China is to take over Taiwan Chips are ESSENTIAL for AI and technological advances, and Taiwan is the world's chip manufacturing hub at the moment. That's one of the main reasons China wants to take Taiwan. TRUMP: "I would like to see everybody making chips in Taiwan come into America. To be honest with you, I think it's the greatest thing can you do. It's a heated situation. There is no question about it. As you know, we have massive amounts of chip companies now from Taiwan already coming in. "We expect to have 40% to 50% of the world chip business by the end of my term."

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump recommends chip manufacturers IMMEDIATELY move their manufacturing facilities to AMERICA, as conversations with Xi confirmed how eager China is to take over Taiwan Chips are ESSENTIAL for AI and technological advances, and Taiwan is the world's chip manufacturing hub at the moment. That's one of the main reasons China wants to take Taiwan. TRUMP: "I would like to see everybody making chips in Taiwan come into America. To be honest with you, I think it's the greatest thing can you do. It's a heated situation. There is no question about it. As you know, we have massive amounts of chip companies now from Taiwan already coming in. "We expect to have 40% to 50% of the world chip business by the end of my term."

Nick Sortor

1,984,335 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

Bill Mitchell

14,056 views • 2 months ago