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NVIDIA CEO ACTUALLY GETS BITCOIN Jensen Huang explained Bitcoin as turning excess energy into money and making that value portable anywhere in the world. This matters because most critics still argue about energy use without understanding that #Bitcoin monetizes wasted power and converts it into a global asset. ⚡...

34,262 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

Adam Livingston

61,562 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

satoshi never existed. nobody writes code like that. not that clean, not that surgical. the early bitcoin codebase doesn’t read like code from some anonymous guy on the internet. bitcoin's early codebase looks like it was handed to us. the whitepaper came out six weeks after the 2008 crash. that's not enough time to dream up a working distributed consensus system, let alone build one. then there’s secp256k1. not secp256r1, the curve everybody used. k1 was obscure, weird, and a terrible choice if you were just following convention. but it also happened to be one of the hardest to backdoor. and then satoshi disappears. roughly a million btc, untouched. people don’t walk away from that kind of money unless the money was never the point. because maybe bitcoin was never just money. what it actually did was create a global incentive to build compute. millions of people, in every country, pouring capital into hardware and electricity to chase block rewards. no state could have coordinated it that fast. no company could have justified it. a protocol paying out internet money gets people moving. then nvidia happened. the same GPUs pushed into the world for mining turned out to be perfect for large-scale parallel compute. the same hardware appetite bitcoin created ended up helping make modern deep learning possible. bitcoin launches in 2009. imagenet breaks things open in 2012. three years. bitcoin was the bootloader. and we’ve been running the install script.

tetsuo

53,736 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

$1M Bitcoin in 2027 Everyone thinks Michael Saylor and ETFs get us there. I think it’s Paul Sztorc and the eCash.com $BTC hard fork. I sat with Paul Sztorc who made me realise eCash could be one of the most important forks in bitcoins history, stimulating our greatest bullrun ever. The tldr is in August if you hold bitcoin you get the equivalent in eCash. Now eCash on its own merit is already interesting. It’s led by Paul Sztorc who has spent years campaigning to improve bitcoins mechanical utility. He’s a certified legit Bitcoin OG who wants to add functional layers on-top of Bitcoin to enable Bitcoin to be the rails for the broader world of commerce. He plans to achieve this with side chains that are sort of like L2s on Bitcoin. Imagine if Bitcoin had smart contracts and $btc was the currency for all apps in the world. 🤔so technically it’s already very compelling. You will get that for free just by owning Bitcoin. But that’s not all. Paul has figured out a way to finance new forks. I believe this will trigger a new season of fork innovations. Basically fork wars 2.0 only this time it’s based around experimentation and innovation instead of outright kill Bitcoin. Institutions have been all the craze recently but they have never been the source of crypto's biggest expansions. The people who built this industry were. The Cryptographers, the hackers, the builders and the cypherpunks. Everyone is focusing on Strategy selling Bitcoin, meanwhile the upcoming eCash hard fork from Paul Sztorc is being wildly underestimated. Technically, the idea of improving bitcoins mechanical utility is appealing but the event itself is also financially dramatic inducing a huge wealth effect for a whole new generation of Bitcoin holders and it may remind the market who actually drives innovation in this industry. Every major crypto boom began when a small group of weird, intelligent, highly-convicted people challenged the status quo and built something new. And while everyone thinks the next bull market comes from Wall Street, I think much more poetically it comes from the same place every other one did: The real Bitcoiners. Anyway, the interview is linked below. I highly recommend you watch it and I’ll be writing my thesis that goes over wealth effects, network effects, financial incentives, game theory and how this all spills over into a bitcoin and crypto bullrun like we’ve never seen before.

Senator Mak🖖

130,752 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio is right about one thing: Bitcoin forces you to think harder. But zoom out. 1) “Bitcoin has no privacy.” Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. That’s by design. Transparency is what makes it auditable, trust-minimized, and globally verifiable. Privacy isn’t binary — it’s a spectrum. Second-layer solutions like Lightning Network improve transactional privacy, and self-custody + best practices eliminate counterparty surveillance. If your definition of “privacy” is “opaque like the banking system,” then yes — Bitcoin is different. It replaces institutional secrecy with mathematical transparency. 2) “Central banks don’t want to buy Bitcoin.” Correct. Central banks also didn’t want the internet, stablecoins, or gold leaving their vaults. Bitcoin isn’t competing for central bank approval. It’s competing as neutral collateral in a world of weaponized fiat. When sovereign debt hits structural limits, assets without counterparty risk win. That’s why individuals, institutions, ETFs, and even nation-states accumulate it — regardless of central bank preferences. 3) “Quantum computing issues.” If quantum breaks Bitcoin’s cryptography, it breaks the entire global financial system first — SWIFT, online banking, military communications. Bitcoin can upgrade via consensus long before that scenario materializes. Cryptography evolves. That’s not a flaw; that’s software. 4) “Relatively small and controlled market.” Every monetization process starts small. Gold was once a niche commodity. The internet was once “small and controlled.” Bitcoin’s market cap reflects 15 years of monetization — with no CEO, no marketing budget, and no state backing. And “controlled”? Try censoring a decentralized network running across tens of thousands of nodes worldwide. Dalio views Bitcoin through a macro-hedge lens. But Bitcoin isn’t just an asset. It’s: •Programmatic scarcity (21M hard cap) •Final settlement without intermediaries •Borderless value transfer •A hedge against monetary debasement The real question isn’t whether central banks want Bitcoin. It’s whether individuals want money that can’t be inflated, frozen, or diluted. History suggests they do.

Asaf · Satoshi Signal ⚡ @SatoshiSignal

22,503 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🔥 THE REALITY ABOUT ZCASH THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW BITCOIN WAS SUPPOSED TO BE FREEDOM. NOW IT’S SURVEILLED, CUSTODIAL, AND CONTROLLED. today almost 10% of BTC sits inside ETFs + government-controlled custodians. Fully watched. Zero privacy. Zero sovereignty. Meanwhile the world is moving into MAX CONTROL: CBDCs, tracking laws, surveillance everywhere. Bitcoin can’t hide you anymore. ZCASH CAN. Bitcoin had ONE CHANCE to add privacy years ago… and the core devs REJECTED IT. So the creators left… and built ZCASH, the upgrade Bitcoin was scared to adopt. Then everything changed: ZEC + Zashi + Intents → instant private swaps → mobile → no KYC → no CEX → NO PERMISSION That’s when the market woke up: • ZEC: $78 → $800 • ZEC VOLUME FLIPPED BTC • 1,000,000+ ZEC moved into shielded pools • 5M+ ZEC now private • Early BTC WHALES backing it • WINKLEVOSS returning to the mission Because the truth is simple: ZCASH DOES WHAT BITCOIN CAN’T. Monero? Too slow. Too dirty. Too stuck. ZEC? Clean. Encrypted. Scalable. Professional. A REAL privacy asset. And now the big boys are circling back. OG Bitcoiners. Tech elites. New capital. Everyone who still believes in REAL cypherpunk freedom. When you put it all together: ✔ BTC captured ✔ surveillance rising ✔ privacy denied ✔ Zcash born ✔ UX solved ✔ volume exploding ✔ shielded supply vertical ✔ OG support returning ✔ new money entering You get one conclusion: ZCASH IS BECOMING WHAT BITCOIN WAS MEANT TO BE. THE MARKET JUST HASN’T ACCEPTED IT YET. When this narrative catches fire… When people realize they NEED privacy again… $ZEC will already pump to $50,000

Whale.Guru

132,096 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.

EndGame Macro

33,374 просмотров • 1 месяц назад