Video wird geladen...

Video konnte nicht geladen werden

Beim Laden dieses Videos ist ein Problem aufgetreten. Dies könnte an einem vorübergehenden Netzwerkproblem liegen oder das Video ist möglicherweise nicht verfügbar.

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation.... show more

Adam Livingston

87,676 subscribers

132,040 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 Kommentare

Keine Kommentare verfügbar

Kommentare vom Original-Post werden hier angezeigt

Ähnliche Videos

Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is ~3.5x outperformance of Bitcoin over a decade. Realistically, it's my opinion that BTC Yield as well as BTC CAGR will be a lot higher in the earlier years. If Bitcoin rips to $150,000-$200,000 this year, ASST is going to MELT FACES.

Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is ~3.5x outperformance of Bitcoin over a decade. Realistically, it's my opinion that BTC Yield as well as BTC CAGR will be a lot higher in the earlier years. If Bitcoin rips to $150,000-$200,000 this year, ASST is going to MELT FACES.

Adam Livingston

45,254 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,286 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

Adam Livingston

61,600 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

Adam Livingston

30,335 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:

HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:

Adam Livingston

33,368 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

MSTR, ASST, and MPJPY Returns Three Bitcoin treasury companies walk into a $126,000 BTC print. Nobody buys another coin. mNAV does absolutely nothing. The market is finally forced to perform the humiliating administrative procedure known as arithmetic. The stock-price equation is simple. BTC price growth × common-equity BTC exposure per share × change in mNAV. Bitcoin rises from $66,852 to $126,000. That is 1.8848× for everybody. Same Bitcoin rocket. Different quantities of financial plutonium strapped beneath the common stock. The second multiplier is CEBE per share: ASST: 13,396 → 17,257 sats/share 1.2882× MSTR: 147,811 → 177,296 sats/share 1.1995× MPJPY: 2,661 → 2,941 sats/share 1.1050× Multiply the two engines: ASST: 1.8848 × 1.2882 = 2.4280× +142.8% MSTR: 1.8848 × 1.1995 = 2.2607× +126.1% MPJPY: 1.8848 × 1.1050 = 2.0826× +108.3% So ASST wins. MSTR finishes second. MTPLF finishes third. But you cannot ignore the premium risk. Maybe the mNAV goes higher for the company with the highest mNAV now. Maybe all converge to 1.0. If all three companies’ ending mNAVs converge to 1.0×, the valuation reset sharply changes the ranking: MPJPY finishes first with a modeled total stock return of approximately 140.6%, because its multiple expands from 0.8656× to parity. MSTR ranks second at roughly 115.0%, as its modest compression from 1.0516× causes only limited damage. ASST ranks third at approximately 65.2%, because its much larger contraction from 1.4695× to 1.0× absorbs a substantial portion of its superior underlying CEBE growth. Entry matters! :)

MSTR, ASST, and MPJPY Returns Three Bitcoin treasury companies walk into a $126,000 BTC print. Nobody buys another coin. mNAV does absolutely nothing. The market is finally forced to perform the humiliating administrative procedure known as arithmetic. The stock-price equation is simple. BTC price growth × common-equity BTC exposure per share × change in mNAV. Bitcoin rises from $66,852 to $126,000. That is 1.8848× for everybody. Same Bitcoin rocket. Different quantities of financial plutonium strapped beneath the common stock. The second multiplier is CEBE per share: ASST: 13,396 → 17,257 sats/share 1.2882× MSTR: 147,811 → 177,296 sats/share 1.1995× MPJPY: 2,661 → 2,941 sats/share 1.1050× Multiply the two engines: ASST: 1.8848 × 1.2882 = 2.4280× +142.8% MSTR: 1.8848 × 1.1995 = 2.2607× +126.1% MPJPY: 1.8848 × 1.1050 = 2.0826× +108.3% So ASST wins. MSTR finishes second. MTPLF finishes third. But you cannot ignore the premium risk. Maybe the mNAV goes higher for the company with the highest mNAV now. Maybe all converge to 1.0. If all three companies’ ending mNAVs converge to 1.0×, the valuation reset sharply changes the ranking: MPJPY finishes first with a modeled total stock return of approximately 140.6%, because its multiple expands from 0.8656× to parity. MSTR ranks second at roughly 115.0%, as its modest compression from 1.0516× causes only limited damage. ASST ranks third at approximately 65.2%, because its much larger contraction from 1.4695× to 1.0× absorbs a substantial portion of its superior underlying CEBE growth. Entry matters! :)

Adam Livingston

25,140 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,471 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Two ways to put $250,000 into Bitcoin. Path A: buy 3.08 BTC on Coinbase at $81,000. Path B: buy $250,000 of S21 Pro miners, deduct the full $250,000 against business income via Section 179, deploy at $0.07/kWh hosting. Path A: 3.08 BTC. Taxable event in years to come if it appreciates. Path B: ~8 BTC over 24 months of hashing (after difficulty growth), plus the $250K deduction this tax year, plus hardware that keeps producing in year 3, year 4, year 5. Same capital. Same asset. Different tax treatment, different time profile, different ownership of production. Most investors see one path. The sophisticated ones price both.

Simple Mining

169,160 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Metaplanet just bought its way to 43,000 Bitcoin The Japanese firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2, spending about $222M at an average price near $78,700 per $BTC, funded through credit facility borrowing and bond issuance rather than new share dilution. Total holdings are now valued around $2.53B at current prices. But the company's overall average cost across its full stack sits near $94,900 per BTC, well above where Bitcoin is trading today near $61,000. That gap is showing up in the stock too. Metaplanet's mNAV, the ratio of market value to actual Bitcoin holdings, recently dipped to about 0.92x. CEO Simon Gerovich (Simon Gerovich) says the firm will consider share buybacks if that discount to net asset value persists. Long-term target: 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, roughly 210,000 BTC. The current stack puts Metaplanet Inc. about a fifth of the way there.

Metaplanet just bought its way to 43,000 Bitcoin The Japanese firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2, spending about $222M at an average price near $78,700 per $BTC, funded through credit facility borrowing and bond issuance rather than new share dilution. Total holdings are now valued around $2.53B at current prices. But the company's overall average cost across its full stack sits near $94,900 per BTC, well above where Bitcoin is trading today near $61,000. That gap is showing up in the stock too. Metaplanet's mNAV, the ratio of market value to actual Bitcoin holdings, recently dipped to about 0.92x. CEO Simon Gerovich (Simon Gerovich) says the firm will consider share buybacks if that discount to net asset value persists. Long-term target: 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, roughly 210,000 BTC. The current stack puts Metaplanet Inc. about a fifth of the way there.

BSCN

12,572 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

BITCOIN VS. THE S&P 500 - THE NEXT 10 YEARS There is a lot of talk and crying about how Bitcoin has diminishing returns and it's not worth the volatility. And to that I say: LOL. Since January 1st, 2020: Bitcoin CAGR: 44% Bitcoin Vol: 60% SPY CAGR: 14% SPY Vol: 20% Bitcoin gave you roughly 3x the volatility but slightly more than 3x the compound growth rate. Now lets walk forward a decade, SEVERELY HANDICAPPING Bitcoin but not touching S&P 500. Yup. Let's cut Bitcoin's CAGR and Vol in HALF. New BTC CAGR: 22% New BTC Vol: 30% Now a Monte Carlo simulation of a $10,000 investment in each with 100,000 paths! Median ending value: Bitcoin: $72,827 (7.3x return) SPY: $37,046 (3.7x return) 5th percentile return: Bitcoin: $15,105 SPY: $13,091 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $347,226 SPY: $104,765 The chance of your investment winding up greater than $100k: Bitcoin: 36.8% SPY: 5.8% Let's run it again with 6% inflation eating both of them. Real CAGR after the government takes its cut: Bitcoin: 15.1% SPY: 7.5% Median ending value: Bitcoin: $40,666 (4.1x) SPY: $20,686 (2.1x) 5th percentile: Bitcoin: $8,435 SPY: $7,310 Yes, both of them lose in the left tail. Inflation stays undefeated down there. Choose your poison honestly. 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $193,889 SPY: $58,500 Odds of simply keeping your purchasing power: Bitcoin: 93.1% SPY: 87.5% Odds of ending with more than $100,000 in today's dollars: Bitcoin: 17.2% SPY: 0.6% Nominally that gap was 6x. In real terms it becomes 27x, because $100k sits way out on the S&P's skinny little tail. I handicapped Bitcoin with half the return, half the volatility, and Bitcoin still buys the house while SPY buys the down payment. Bitcoin remains the APEX GROWTH ASSET and the S&P 500 remains the preferred choice for khaki-wearing midwits stuck in a beige office chair from 1994:

BITCOIN VS. THE S&P 500 - THE NEXT 10 YEARS There is a lot of talk and crying about how Bitcoin has diminishing returns and it's not worth the volatility. And to that I say: LOL. Since January 1st, 2020: Bitcoin CAGR: 44% Bitcoin Vol: 60% SPY CAGR: 14% SPY Vol: 20% Bitcoin gave you roughly 3x the volatility but slightly more than 3x the compound growth rate. Now lets walk forward a decade, SEVERELY HANDICAPPING Bitcoin but not touching S&P 500. Yup. Let's cut Bitcoin's CAGR and Vol in HALF. New BTC CAGR: 22% New BTC Vol: 30% Now a Monte Carlo simulation of a $10,000 investment in each with 100,000 paths! Median ending value: Bitcoin: $72,827 (7.3x return) SPY: $37,046 (3.7x return) 5th percentile return: Bitcoin: $15,105 SPY: $13,091 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $347,226 SPY: $104,765 The chance of your investment winding up greater than $100k: Bitcoin: 36.8% SPY: 5.8% Let's run it again with 6% inflation eating both of them. Real CAGR after the government takes its cut: Bitcoin: 15.1% SPY: 7.5% Median ending value: Bitcoin: $40,666 (4.1x) SPY: $20,686 (2.1x) 5th percentile: Bitcoin: $8,435 SPY: $7,310 Yes, both of them lose in the left tail. Inflation stays undefeated down there. Choose your poison honestly. 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $193,889 SPY: $58,500 Odds of simply keeping your purchasing power: Bitcoin: 93.1% SPY: 87.5% Odds of ending with more than $100,000 in today's dollars: Bitcoin: 17.2% SPY: 0.6% Nominally that gap was 6x. In real terms it becomes 27x, because $100k sits way out on the S&P's skinny little tail. I handicapped Bitcoin with half the return, half the volatility, and Bitcoin still buys the house while SPY buys the down payment. Bitcoin remains the APEX GROWTH ASSET and the S&P 500 remains the preferred choice for khaki-wearing midwits stuck in a beige office chair from 1994:

Adam Livingston

19,930 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

Hanzo ㊗️

285,705 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

You remember my words, I was 100% right: $BTC closed the $82K CME GAP. That’s exactly what happened. Over $10 BILLION in shorts were liquidated. That was the TRAP, listen urgently: Everyone now thinks this is a breakout. Many thought the bull market had returned. But bulls won’t like what I’m about to say next. This move is not the end. It’s a setup for a pullback and a test of hands/nerves. For the record: I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

You remember my words, I was 100% right: $BTC closed the $82K CME GAP. That’s exactly what happened. Over $10 BILLION in shorts were liquidated. That was the TRAP, listen urgently: Everyone now thinks this is a breakout. Many thought the bull market had returned. But bulls won’t like what I’m about to say next. This move is not the end. It’s a setup for a pullback and a test of hands/nerves. For the record: I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

DANNY

34,002 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 DON'T BUY $BTC RIGHT NOW First, $BTC will fill the $70K FVG Then it'll create a massive Bull Trap and convince everyone uptrend is back Only after that will the final flush begin Here's my plan: 1. Local correction into $64K area (DONE) ✅ 2. Then a rally to $70K 3. 10-14 days of distribution 4. Then a breakdown below $58K 5. Flush to $48K 6. Final bottom test in $39K-$45K zone As $BTC pushes higher, high-cap alts could rally another 10-30% That's exactly when you don't want to fall into trap... I believe final phase of Bear Market hasn't started yet The biggest sell-off is likely over next 30-90 days IMPORTANT: I was one of first to call $BTC drop from $83K My next call could be the biggest one in months TURN NOTIFICATIONS ON BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE...

🚨 DON'T BUY $BTC RIGHT NOW First, $BTC will fill the $70K FVG Then it'll create a massive Bull Trap and convince everyone uptrend is back Only after that will the final flush begin Here's my plan: 1. Local correction into $64K area (DONE) ✅ 2. Then a rally to $70K 3. 10-14 days of distribution 4. Then a breakdown below $58K 5. Flush to $48K 6. Final bottom test in $39K-$45K zone As $BTC pushes higher, high-cap alts could rally another 10-30% That's exactly when you don't want to fall into trap... I believe final phase of Bear Market hasn't started yet The biggest sell-off is likely over next 30-90 days IMPORTANT: I was one of first to call $BTC drop from $83K My next call could be the biggest one in months TURN NOTIFICATIONS ON BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE...

Aralez 🐕

118,812 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.

🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.

Adam Livingston

12,608 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS TOO STRANGE. WHY NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT? The pattern looks eerily familiar. The crash started on the same schedule as 2022. In 2022: War Russia-Ukraine starts → BTC hits the local floor 4 weeks later Russia offers Bitcoin for oil → BTC pumps to $48K Then comes the bloodbath: a brutal 50% crash in just three months. Now in 2026: US-Iran War escalates → BTC hits the local floor 4 weeks later Iran offers Bitcoin for toll fees → BTC pumps to $78K Now the dump starts. Just like 2022. Same timing. Same narrative. Same trap. Iran’s toll system is real. Estimates say $20M per day in BTC. But the 2022 pump also had a "real" proposal. It didn't matter. The crash still came. History warned you. What you do with it is up to you. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K top in October. Turn on notifications. When the real bottom forms, I'll call it here publicly, like I always do.

🚨 THIS IS TOO STRANGE. WHY NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT? The pattern looks eerily familiar. The crash started on the same schedule as 2022. In 2022: War Russia-Ukraine starts → BTC hits the local floor 4 weeks later Russia offers Bitcoin for oil → BTC pumps to $48K Then comes the bloodbath: a brutal 50% crash in just three months. Now in 2026: US-Iran War escalates → BTC hits the local floor 4 weeks later Iran offers Bitcoin for toll fees → BTC pumps to $78K Now the dump starts. Just like 2022. Same timing. Same narrative. Same trap. Iran’s toll system is real. Estimates say $20M per day in BTC. But the 2022 pump also had a "real" proposal. It didn't matter. The crash still came. History warned you. What you do with it is up to you. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K top in October. Turn on notifications. When the real bottom forms, I'll call it here publicly, like I always do.

MARMOT

110,409 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.

Adam Livingston

15,473 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

You can easily make +10% on BTC 5-min markets on Polymarket Here's what I tested: - I deposited $21 just to test (yeah, small size lol) - Did 10 trades in 50 minutes - Each trade brings around +1-5% if you put $5-10 per trade - Now the balance is $23 - That's ez +10% in under an hour My simple tactic: - Enter 30-60 seconds before the market closes - Only take odds 85-90%+ - Wait a few seconds -> take small profit -> done Yeah, a lot of people trade like this using clawdbots. But you don't need a bot - you can do it manually without any problem. Even with a small deposit, you can slowly scale it up if you don't get greedy

You can easily make +10% on BTC 5-min markets on Polymarket Here's what I tested: - I deposited $21 just to test (yeah, small size lol) - Did 10 trades in 50 minutes - Each trade brings around +1-5% if you put $5-10 per trade - Now the balance is $23 - That's ez +10% in under an hour My simple tactic: - Enter 30-60 seconds before the market closes - Only take odds 85-90%+ - Wait a few seconds -> take small profit -> done Yeah, a lot of people trade like this using clawdbots. But you don't need a bot - you can do it manually without any problem. Even with a small deposit, you can slowly scale it up if you don't get greedy

nnevvesss

128,541 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten