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🚨 NVIDIA Had CUDA. Is Tesla Building Its Own Inflection Point? NVIDIA spent years investing in CUDA before AI turned it into a massive advantage. Tesla has now traded sideways for about five years while spending heavily on FSD, Robotaxi, AI, energy, and Optimus. The comparison isn’t perfect, but...

20,320 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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If you're interested in Tesla Robotaxi, Tesla AI or Tesla FSD, then you ought to know about jimmah . He's probably the one person who's done the deepest public dives on Tesla FSD and Tesla AI over the years. In fact, over the past 4 years I've published 40+ videos (!) with James Douma on Tesla AI/FSD (they are all on a playlist on my YouTube channel). I first discovered James Douma a long time ago (maybe almost 8-10 years ago?) on a web forum called . Back then it was one of the only places for early Tesla owners and TSLA investors to discuss issues deeply. While I posted about investing topics, James posted about Tesla Autopilot and its hardware but in a way that was more thorough than anybody else. When I started posting YouTube videos years later, I invited him on my channel to hear his thoughts on Tesla Autopilot/FSD. It was a riveting discussion and I was surprised at how much I could learn from him. I invited him again for another interview on my channel, and once again I was floored by how much I was learning. So over the years, James has been a great resource for me (and many others) to keep pulse on what Tesla is doing with FSD and AI (and even robotics). He doesn't have his own YouTube channel. He doesn't have any paid services or subscriptions. He probably has mixed feelings about so many people knowing about him. But I appreciate his willingness over the years to be available and help the Tesla community by offering his insights and knowledge. Yesterday I spent most of the day with James taking Robotaxi rides and discussion all things Robotaxi: - current state of Robotaxi - quality of Robotaxi rides - possible scaling plans - challenges - comparison to Waymo and others - Tesla AI 5 - and much more Attached is a 2+ hour edited video of our Robotaxi rides and discussion. We also had an hour+ discussion on Optimus humanoid robots that I'll upload as a separate video tomorrow.

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Ben Thompson explains how LLMs greatly diminished Nvidia's CUDA moat even as they sent the stock to the moon "So the weird thing about large language models is they were obviously incredible for Nvidia. That's why their stock went to the moon." "They have been on and off the most valuable company in the world." "It was also very bad for Nvidia. And the reason it was bad for Nvidia is that the play with CUDA is to build a developer ecosystem on top of CUDA." "But CUDA only works on Nvidia GPUs. So you get CUDA for free. It's easier to use, and it's a tremendous investment. Nvidia almost went under trying to build CUDA at a time when no one understood what they were doing or why they were wasting money on it." "And that's why Jensen Huang will get bristly, particularly when people question their rent-seeking or profit, whatever. It's like, no, they earned their spot fair and square." "Absolutely. It shouldn't be forgotten. They have earned every dollar they've gotten through 25 years of taking massive risks." "It bottomed out in October 2022. I wrote an article like three weeks before ChatGPT came out, tracing their bottoming-out history and their search for what was next." "'Nvidia in the Valley.' So, go back to this GTC. So I wrote an article at the time called 'Nvidia Waves and Moats'." "And what was interesting about that GTC was, number one, it was very boring. All the cool stuff kind of got scrubbed out." "Now, Jensen Huang has brought that stuff back, so the last few GTCs he's more talking about other things. Now it comes across as, oh, you're still looking for something beyond the LLM." "Because the problem with the LLM is it shifts the developer platform far above where Nvidia sits. All the activity is happening on top of LLMs. And so no one who's writing an AI application today is using CUDA." "Now, some people are, if you're training your own model and you're doing some low-level things or non-LLM things." "But the vast majority of the energy and all the money and the ecosystem is far removed from CUDA." "They have no idea and don't need to know or care what chips their application is running on. They're just on the OpenAI API, or the Anthropic API, or using Bedrock on Amazon, and it's sitting on Trainium, and they're using a Chinese open-source model. It's totally abstracted away, and this is why LLMs were bad for Nvidia." "Now, again, all the money they made along the way is worth it, but their moat has been tremendously diminished." "CUDA is still a moat if you need to do stuff that requires CUDA. But the vast majority of stuff, in energy, doesn't require CUDA, like in a post-LLM world."

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