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🇸🇦 🇾🇪 Oil analyst Rory Johnston warns that Ansarallah’s attacks present a serious threat to Saudi Arabia’s main workaround for the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Saudi Arabia had shifted about 5 million barrels a day (~3 million offset from Hormuz) through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, but...

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🌊🚢 Hormuz Barrel Math Oil analyst Rory Johnston says U.S. claims that roughly 10 million barrels a day are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz look increasingly detached from the available tanker data. “The consensus of tanker trackers using a bunch of different methodologies” is closer to 4–6 million barrels a day, Rory Johnston tells Drop Site’s Sarmad Jawad. After weeks without the missing tankers reappearing or enough Gulf loadings to support Washington’s numbers, Johnston says the claim is looking “more like fiction than an exaggeration.” (Watch/listen to the full conversation on YouTube at the link below.)
4:37

🌊🚢 Hormuz Barrel Math Oil analyst Rory Johnston says U.S. claims that roughly 10 million barrels a day are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz look increasingly detached from the available tanker data. “The consensus of tanker trackers using a bunch of different methodologies” is closer to 4–6 million barrels a day, Rory Johnston tells Drop Site’s Sarmad Jawad. After weeks without the missing tankers reappearing or enough Gulf loadings to support Washington’s numbers, Johnston says the claim is looking “more like fiction than an exaggeration.” (Watch/listen to the full conversation on YouTube at the link below.)

Drop Site

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?
0:23

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

Bill Mitchell

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BIG | 🇸🇦🛢️🌍‼️‼️ Damage to Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline now threatens to remove the equivalent of roughly 4–5% of global oil supply from an energy market already under severe pressure, Reuters reports. The pipeline has recently been carrying around 4–5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing Saudi Arabia to bypass the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Reuters sources say repairs could take as long as five to six weeks, while available storage may sustain current export levels for only several more days. Unless Riyadh restores flows quickly or finds sufficient alternative supplies, Saudi crude exports could fall sharply. The timing could hardly be worse for global energy markets. With Hormuz already severely constrained by the U.S.-Iran war and security deteriorating around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia’s East-West route had become one of the most important remaining outlets for Middle Eastern crude. A prolonged shutdown would remove another major safety valve from the system, increasing the risk of tighter supply, higher oil prices and renewed inflationary pressure across the global economy. See the latest updates with us: Visioner
0:30

BIG | 🇸🇦🛢️🌍‼️‼️ Damage to Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline now threatens to remove the equivalent of roughly 4–5% of global oil supply from an energy market already under severe pressure, Reuters reports. The pipeline has recently been carrying around 4–5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing Saudi Arabia to bypass the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Reuters sources say repairs could take as long as five to six weeks, while available storage may sustain current export levels for only several more days. Unless Riyadh restores flows quickly or finds sufficient alternative supplies, Saudi crude exports could fall sharply. The timing could hardly be worse for global energy markets. With Hormuz already severely constrained by the U.S.-Iran war and security deteriorating around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia’s East-West route had become one of the most important remaining outlets for Middle Eastern crude. A prolonged shutdown would remove another major safety valve from the system, increasing the risk of tighter supply, higher oil prices and renewed inflationary pressure across the global economy. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

23,327 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

Isn’t it cute how Saudi Arabia and Mossad are cooperating to bypass the Straight of Hormuz. Except they left out one important detail. Although the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline allows Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, there’s still a shortfall of oil exports. Saudi Arabia produces about 10 mb/d, while the pipeline can carry ~5–7 mb/d at maximum capacity. It’s also not hard for Iran to knock out this pipeline if they want. However around 20 mb/d of global oil normally passes through Hormuz. Therefore, the pipeline reduces Saudi vulnerability but cannot fully offset the Hormuz blockade or global supply disruption by more than 13 mb/d. And guess what happens when Ansar’Allah show up and reimpose their Red Sea and Gulf of Aiden blockade?
2:34

Isn’t it cute how Saudi Arabia and Mossad are cooperating to bypass the Straight of Hormuz. Except they left out one important detail. Although the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline allows Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, there’s still a shortfall of oil exports. Saudi Arabia produces about 10 mb/d, while the pipeline can carry ~5–7 mb/d at maximum capacity. It’s also not hard for Iran to knock out this pipeline if they want. However around 20 mb/d of global oil normally passes through Hormuz. Therefore, the pipeline reduces Saudi vulnerability but cannot fully offset the Hormuz blockade or global supply disruption by more than 13 mb/d. And guess what happens when Ansar’Allah show up and reimpose their Red Sea and Gulf of Aiden blockade?

Truth_teller 🇷🇺

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Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline as a backup for a Strait of Hormuz crisis. If the chokepoint is disrupted, oil can be pumped across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, where tankers can carry it to global markets without passing through the Gulf. But reportedly, drones launched from Iraq targeted critical pumping infrastructure near Riyadh and Madinah rather than the pipeline itself. That could be more damaging: while a pipeline puncture may be repaired relatively quickly, specialised pumping equipment can take weeks to restore. Initial estimates suggest repairs could take 5–6 weeks. That creates a major strategic problem. Saudi Arabia may have spare oil capacity, but it still needs a functioning route to export it. With Hormuz already disrupted, damage to the East-West Pipeline’s pumping network could weaken Saudi Arabia’s most important alternative export route—making this far more than just an attack on oil infrastructure. #iran #saudiarabia #drone #DroneStrike #Hormuz
2:49

Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline as a backup for a Strait of Hormuz crisis. If the chokepoint is disrupted, oil can be pumped across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, where tankers can carry it to global markets without passing through the Gulf. But reportedly, drones launched from Iraq targeted critical pumping infrastructure near Riyadh and Madinah rather than the pipeline itself. That could be more damaging: while a pipeline puncture may be repaired relatively quickly, specialised pumping equipment can take weeks to restore. Initial estimates suggest repairs could take 5–6 weeks. That creates a major strategic problem. Saudi Arabia may have spare oil capacity, but it still needs a functioning route to export it. With Hormuz already disrupted, damage to the East-West Pipeline’s pumping network could weaken Saudi Arabia’s most important alternative export route—making this far more than just an attack on oil infrastructure. #iran #saudiarabia #drone #DroneStrike #Hormuz

Srijan Pal Singh

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Lead oil analyst at Kpler warns that California could face jet fuel shortages within weeks. 🔹 He said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, with most movements restricted to Iranian tankers. 🔹 Any further escalation from the Ansarallah in Yemen could also disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb strait, threatening the roughly 4 million barrels per day moving through Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline to the Red Sea. 🔹 Oil and LNG flows to Asia are already drying up as earlier shipments are unloaded and processed. He said that even if the war ended immediately, supply chain delays mean normalization would still take a long time. 🔹 Asian refiners are beginning to cut production because of crude shortages, a move that could trigger shortages of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel and disrupt exports to markets including the U.S. West Coast.
3:32

Lead oil analyst at Kpler warns that California could face jet fuel shortages within weeks. 🔹 He said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, with most movements restricted to Iranian tankers. 🔹 Any further escalation from the Ansarallah in Yemen could also disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb strait, threatening the roughly 4 million barrels per day moving through Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline to the Red Sea. 🔹 Oil and LNG flows to Asia are already drying up as earlier shipments are unloaded and processed. He said that even if the war ended immediately, supply chain delays mean normalization would still take a long time. 🔹 Asian refiners are beginning to cut production because of crude shortages, a move that could trigger shortages of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel and disrupt exports to markets including the U.S. West Coast.

Drop Site

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Saudi Arabia and Israel held talks mediated by CENTCOM for Israel intelligence support against the Houthis. Shortly after, media reported Saudi attacks on 5 locations in Yemen. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was attacked causing oil prices to surge. With the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandab maritime chokepoints closed by Iran and Houthis, the East-West pipeline was an attempt to circumvent that by feeding crude into the Red Sea and export through the Suez Canal. Now, that is also shutdown and the Saudis are working with the Israelis. Reporting has long alleged the Saudis worked with the Israelis to encourage the U.S. to start the war on Iran which started this whole situation.
1:01

Saudi Arabia and Israel held talks mediated by CENTCOM for Israel intelligence support against the Houthis. Shortly after, media reported Saudi attacks on 5 locations in Yemen. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was attacked causing oil prices to surge. With the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandab maritime chokepoints closed by Iran and Houthis, the East-West pipeline was an attempt to circumvent that by feeding crude into the Red Sea and export through the Suez Canal. Now, that is also shutdown and the Saudis are working with the Israelis. Reporting has long alleged the Saudis worked with the Israelis to encourage the U.S. to start the war on Iran which started this whole situation.

Shadow of Ezra

21,771 Aufrufe • vor 18 Stunden

🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia built a pipeline to escape Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Now that pipeline has been knocked offline, and Saudi is being forced to send MORE oil through Hormuz. The strategic trap around the Kingdom is tightening incredibly fast. Saudi's East-West pipeline was supposed to be its insurance policy. Move millions of barrels of oil across the country to Yanbu, load it onto tankers in the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz completely. Then came the drone attack, and now the clock is ticking. Existing oil inventories at Yanbu could be depleted within roughly 5–7 days if flows aren't restored. So Saudi is doing something extraordinary: Increasing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, MBS is scrambling for help. The Saudis have already asked Trump to join their campaign against the Houthis. He declined. Now MBS is reportedly heading to Cairo as Riyadh searches for another regional military power capable of helping it contain the crisis. Saudi was supposed to be the energy superpower capable of keeping oil flowing when Hormuz went bad. Instead, the Houthis have destroyed its Plan B. Brandon Weichert
55:13

🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia built a pipeline to escape Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Now that pipeline has been knocked offline, and Saudi is being forced to send MORE oil through Hormuz. The strategic trap around the Kingdom is tightening incredibly fast. Saudi's East-West pipeline was supposed to be its insurance policy. Move millions of barrels of oil across the country to Yanbu, load it onto tankers in the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz completely. Then came the drone attack, and now the clock is ticking. Existing oil inventories at Yanbu could be depleted within roughly 5–7 days if flows aren't restored. So Saudi is doing something extraordinary: Increasing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, MBS is scrambling for help. The Saudis have already asked Trump to join their campaign against the Houthis. He declined. Now MBS is reportedly heading to Cairo as Riyadh searches for another regional military power capable of helping it contain the crisis. Saudi was supposed to be the energy superpower capable of keeping oil flowing when Hormuz went bad. Instead, the Houthis have destroyed its Plan B. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

289,187 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia now has a problem that bombing alone may not solve. Pepe Escobar argues that Ansar Allah's rapid advance across western Yemen has fundamentally changed the battlefield. They now control territory stretching toward Bab el-Mandeb and, according to Escobar, are looking next toward Taiz and the oil and gas region around Marib. But the bigger problem for Riyadh is geography. Escobar says the Houthis are deliberately allowing most shipping through Bab el-Mandeb while targeting Saudi oil traffic, ships bound for Israel, and American and British vessels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been struck at multiple points, potentially removing millions of barrels per day of export capacity for weeks or months. So what does Riyadh do? A massive ground invasion would require manpower. Escobar's answer is brutal: “They don't have these troops, Mario. They will have to buy these troops from somebody.” Pakistan, he says, considers Yemen outside its defense obligations. Turkey has little interest in entering the war. Egypt may have even less incentive while Saudi crude is being rerouted through Egyptian territory. Saudi Arabia spent decades building alternative routes around Hormuz. The Houthis may have discovered that you don't need to close the Red Sea. You only need to close it to Saudi Arabia. Pepe Escobar
29:54

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia now has a problem that bombing alone may not solve. Pepe Escobar argues that Ansar Allah's rapid advance across western Yemen has fundamentally changed the battlefield. They now control territory stretching toward Bab el-Mandeb and, according to Escobar, are looking next toward Taiz and the oil and gas region around Marib. But the bigger problem for Riyadh is geography. Escobar says the Houthis are deliberately allowing most shipping through Bab el-Mandeb while targeting Saudi oil traffic, ships bound for Israel, and American and British vessels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been struck at multiple points, potentially removing millions of barrels per day of export capacity for weeks or months. So what does Riyadh do? A massive ground invasion would require manpower. Escobar's answer is brutal: “They don't have these troops, Mario. They will have to buy these troops from somebody.” Pakistan, he says, considers Yemen outside its defense obligations. Turkey has little interest in entering the war. Egypt may have even less incentive while Saudi crude is being rerouted through Egyptian territory. Saudi Arabia spent decades building alternative routes around Hormuz. The Houthis may have discovered that you don't need to close the Red Sea. You only need to close it to Saudi Arabia. Pepe Escobar

Mario Nawfal

294,036 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.
0:59

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.

Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial

202,992 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

🇨🇳🚢 Why China Now Holds the Fate of the Oil Market Oil analyst Rory Johnston tells Drop Site that Beijing has effectively become the swing player in the global oil market as U.S. reserves and commercial inventories are depleted. By cutting crude imports by roughly 5.5 million barrels a day, China absorbed much of the supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, helping prevent the catastrophic $150–$200 oil prices Johnston once feared. But that power cuts both ways. “It’s not hard to imagine a situation where China does the opposite,” Johnston said, including pulling “the rug out right ahead of the midterms” or squeezing a struggling U.S. shale industry. Rory Johnston | Sarmad Jawad (Full video linked below 👇)
3:20

🇨🇳🚢 Why China Now Holds the Fate of the Oil Market Oil analyst Rory Johnston tells Drop Site that Beijing has effectively become the swing player in the global oil market as U.S. reserves and commercial inventories are depleted. By cutting crude imports by roughly 5.5 million barrels a day, China absorbed much of the supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, helping prevent the catastrophic $150–$200 oil prices Johnston once feared. But that power cuts both ways. “It’s not hard to imagine a situation where China does the opposite,” Johnston said, including pulling “the rug out right ahead of the midterms” or squeezing a struggling U.S. shale industry. Rory Johnston | Sarmad Jawad (Full video linked below 👇)

Drop Site

42,145 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

🇸🇦🇺🇸 Saudi Arabia is telling Trump to back off the blockade before Iran shuts down the only route keeping Gulf oil flowing... Saudi Arabia is reportedly privately pressing Washington to drop the Hormuz blockade and return to negotiations. The reason is simple: if Iran retaliates by activating the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia loses its last remaining export route. After the war closed Hormuz, Saudi Arabia pivoted its oil exports to Yanbu on the Red Sea, restoring output to its pre-war level of seven million barrels per day. Iran's foreign policy adviser publicly warned that Tehran views Bab el-Mandeb "just as it looks at Hormuz" and can disrupt it "with a single signal." Saudi energy officials told the WSJ they secured commitments from the Houthis not to attack Saudi ships through Bab el-Mandeb. But Riyadh warned Washington the situation is "fluid" and the Houthis could escalate if pushed further by Iran. The U.S. blockade is designed to choke Iran's revenue. But Iran can respond by choking Saudi Arabia's revenue through its Yemeni proxy. Both chokepoints closed simultaneously means the entire Gulf's oil output has no route to market. Global energy markets collapse. Source: WSJ
0:32

🇸🇦🇺🇸 Saudi Arabia is telling Trump to back off the blockade before Iran shuts down the only route keeping Gulf oil flowing... Saudi Arabia is reportedly privately pressing Washington to drop the Hormuz blockade and return to negotiations. The reason is simple: if Iran retaliates by activating the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia loses its last remaining export route. After the war closed Hormuz, Saudi Arabia pivoted its oil exports to Yanbu on the Red Sea, restoring output to its pre-war level of seven million barrels per day. Iran's foreign policy adviser publicly warned that Tehran views Bab el-Mandeb "just as it looks at Hormuz" and can disrupt it "with a single signal." Saudi energy officials told the WSJ they secured commitments from the Houthis not to attack Saudi ships through Bab el-Mandeb. But Riyadh warned Washington the situation is "fluid" and the Houthis could escalate if pushed further by Iran. The U.S. blockade is designed to choke Iran's revenue. But Iran can respond by choking Saudi Arabia's revenue through its Yemeni proxy. Both chokepoints closed simultaneously means the entire Gulf's oil output has no route to market. Global energy markets collapse. Source: WSJ

Mario Nawfal

1,358,880 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

OIL JUMPS AGAIN #Saudi oil output slumps 23% to a 36-year low as Hormuz and Red Sea routes close in Saudi Arabia’s oil production collapsed to 6.24 million barrels a day in August, down 23% from July and the lowest monthly level reported by the kingdom since 1990. The number is a stark measure of what the war with Iran and the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea have done to the world’s biggest oil exporter. #Saudi Arabia still has the wells, pipelines and theoretical spare capacity. What it increasingly lacks is a reliable way to get the barrels out. In July, #Saudi production had recovered to around 8.14 million barrels a day during a brief lull in the fighting. By August, that recovery was gone. Output fell by roughly 1.9 million barrels a day. Exports were hit even harder. Tanker tracking put #Saudi crude shipments at only around 3.1 to 3.2 million barrels a day, the weakest level in more than a decade. Before the war, #Saudi Arabia regularly exported more than 7 million barrels a day. The problem is geography. The Strait of #Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally passes, became a war zone after the conflict with #Iran escalated. Tanker traffic collapsed as attacks and the threat of further strikes made the #Gulf route increasingly difficult to use. #Saudi Arabia had an obvious alternative. Its East-West pipeline was built precisely for a Hormuz crisis. It carries crude across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing Saudi oil to reach tankers without passing through the Strait. But the alternative route is now under attack as well. The Houthis in #Yemen have turned the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb into another danger zone. Their attacks on shipping, combined with strikes against Saudi targets, have made the Red Sea route far less dependable. That leaves #Riyadh squeezed between two maritime chokepoints. When crude cannot be exported, production eventually has to come down. Storage tanks can absorb the first shock. They cannot absorb an unlimited number of barrels every day. Aramco therefore has an increasingly simple choice: reduce production or keep filling storage with oil that has nowhere reliable to go. There is an important distinction in the numbers. Saudi Arabia reported 7.12 million barrels a day of “supply to the market” in August, almost 900,000 barrels above its reported production. The difference points to inventory being drawn down to keep customers supplied. That provides breathing room. It does not solve the problem. Inventories can bridge a temporary disruption. They cannot permanently replace functioning export routes. The market has begun pricing that distinction. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel this week and traded around $107 as attacks on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure intensified. That is a sharp move from the roughly $70 level seen before the war. Saudi Arabia has already experienced a similar production shock during the conflict. Output fell to around 6.32 million barrels a day in April before recovering in June and July. The pattern is becoming difficult to ignore. When one export route is threatened, Saudi Arabia can reroute barrels. When both Hormuz and the Red Sea are contested, the kingdom's spare capacity becomes much less useful. And that is the bigger problem for the oil market. Saudi Arabia is traditionally the producer everyone expects to turn to when supplies disappear. Riyadh can normally open the taps and send additional crude into the market. But spare capacity sitting behind a closed or dangerous shipping route is not the same thing as spare capacity available to consumers. The same problem applies to other Gulf producers. Much of the region's oil ultimately depends on a small number of strategic waterways. Disrupt one and cargoes can be rerouted. Threaten both at the same time and the entire logistics system starts to tighten. The 6.24 million-barrel figure should therefore not be viewed simply as another monthly production statistic. It is a warning about infrastructure. Saudi Arabia spent decades preparing for a Hormuz crisis. The East-West pipeline was one of the kingdom's insurance policies against precisely such a scenario. Now the war is testing the insurance policy itself. If the fighting continues and both routes remain contested, Saudi Arabia will have to rely increasingly on inventories, limited shipping corridors and whatever tanker traffic is willing to accept the risk. That leaves the oil market with a very different question from the one it faced before the war. It is no longer simply how much oil can Saudi Arabia produce? It is how much oil can Saudi Arabia reliably deliver? Right now, the answer is falling fast. If you want, I can also make this more Inside Paradeplatz / Lukas Hässig style, with a more provocative opening and a harder final paragraph.
0:48

OIL JUMPS AGAIN #Saudi oil output slumps 23% to a 36-year low as Hormuz and Red Sea routes close in Saudi Arabia’s oil production collapsed to 6.24 million barrels a day in August, down 23% from July and the lowest monthly level reported by the kingdom since 1990. The number is a stark measure of what the war with Iran and the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea have done to the world’s biggest oil exporter. #Saudi Arabia still has the wells, pipelines and theoretical spare capacity. What it increasingly lacks is a reliable way to get the barrels out. In July, #Saudi production had recovered to around 8.14 million barrels a day during a brief lull in the fighting. By August, that recovery was gone. Output fell by roughly 1.9 million barrels a day. Exports were hit even harder. Tanker tracking put #Saudi crude shipments at only around 3.1 to 3.2 million barrels a day, the weakest level in more than a decade. Before the war, #Saudi Arabia regularly exported more than 7 million barrels a day. The problem is geography. The Strait of #Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally passes, became a war zone after the conflict with #Iran escalated. Tanker traffic collapsed as attacks and the threat of further strikes made the #Gulf route increasingly difficult to use. #Saudi Arabia had an obvious alternative. Its East-West pipeline was built precisely for a Hormuz crisis. It carries crude across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing Saudi oil to reach tankers without passing through the Strait. But the alternative route is now under attack as well. The Houthis in #Yemen have turned the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb into another danger zone. Their attacks on shipping, combined with strikes against Saudi targets, have made the Red Sea route far less dependable. That leaves #Riyadh squeezed between two maritime chokepoints. When crude cannot be exported, production eventually has to come down. Storage tanks can absorb the first shock. They cannot absorb an unlimited number of barrels every day. Aramco therefore has an increasingly simple choice: reduce production or keep filling storage with oil that has nowhere reliable to go. There is an important distinction in the numbers. Saudi Arabia reported 7.12 million barrels a day of “supply to the market” in August, almost 900,000 barrels above its reported production. The difference points to inventory being drawn down to keep customers supplied. That provides breathing room. It does not solve the problem. Inventories can bridge a temporary disruption. They cannot permanently replace functioning export routes. The market has begun pricing that distinction. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel this week and traded around $107 as attacks on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure intensified. That is a sharp move from the roughly $70 level seen before the war. Saudi Arabia has already experienced a similar production shock during the conflict. Output fell to around 6.32 million barrels a day in April before recovering in June and July. The pattern is becoming difficult to ignore. When one export route is threatened, Saudi Arabia can reroute barrels. When both Hormuz and the Red Sea are contested, the kingdom's spare capacity becomes much less useful. And that is the bigger problem for the oil market. Saudi Arabia is traditionally the producer everyone expects to turn to when supplies disappear. Riyadh can normally open the taps and send additional crude into the market. But spare capacity sitting behind a closed or dangerous shipping route is not the same thing as spare capacity available to consumers. The same problem applies to other Gulf producers. Much of the region's oil ultimately depends on a small number of strategic waterways. Disrupt one and cargoes can be rerouted. Threaten both at the same time and the entire logistics system starts to tighten. The 6.24 million-barrel figure should therefore not be viewed simply as another monthly production statistic. It is a warning about infrastructure. Saudi Arabia spent decades preparing for a Hormuz crisis. The East-West pipeline was one of the kingdom's insurance policies against precisely such a scenario. Now the war is testing the insurance policy itself. If the fighting continues and both routes remain contested, Saudi Arabia will have to rely increasingly on inventories, limited shipping corridors and whatever tanker traffic is willing to accept the risk. That leaves the oil market with a very different question from the one it faced before the war. It is no longer simply how much oil can Saudi Arabia produce? It is how much oil can Saudi Arabia reliably deliver? Right now, the answer is falling fast. If you want, I can also make this more Inside Paradeplatz / Lukas Hässig style, with a more provocative opening and a harder final paragraph.

Russian Market

13,191 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

🇮🇷 🇸🇦 THE SECOND OIL CHOKEPOINT - To understand this, you have to understand the map. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia did not fold. They pushed oil across their own country by pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea and shipped it out the other side. Yanbu became the kingdom's busiest export hub, moving around 4 million barrels a day! That was door number two. On July 20 the Houthis declared a maritime ban on Saudi shipping and started hitting Yanbu and Jazan. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell 56 percent in a week. Now the interpretation. This is not random escalation. It is a door-closing strategy, and it is working. The Saudis are going the long way through Suez now, which cannot even handle the biggest tankers. So now we're fighting on two fronts. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. How does Trump win this fight? ⬇️
0:23

🇮🇷 🇸🇦 THE SECOND OIL CHOKEPOINT - To understand this, you have to understand the map. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia did not fold. They pushed oil across their own country by pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea and shipped it out the other side. Yanbu became the kingdom's busiest export hub, moving around 4 million barrels a day! That was door number two. On July 20 the Houthis declared a maritime ban on Saudi shipping and started hitting Yanbu and Jazan. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell 56 percent in a week. Now the interpretation. This is not random escalation. It is a door-closing strategy, and it is working. The Saudis are going the long way through Suez now, which cannot even handle the biggest tankers. So now we're fighting on two fronts. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. How does Trump win this fight? ⬇️

Bill Mitchell

19,133 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇶🇦🇸🇦 Israel crossed Iran's energy red line by striking the South Pars gas field, and now both sides are torching each other's energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran fired back at Israel's Haifa refinery, Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG plant), plus refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Israel went after facilities that produce 730 million cubic meters of gas daily. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively dead. Traffic dropped 96% in the first 18 days of war, from thousands of transits to just 98. Saudi Arabia is now desperately pumping oil west through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the strait. If Iran hits Yanbu, analysts say 5-6 million barrels a day disappear from global markets and oil could hit $150. Brent crude has already jumped from the $70s to $115 since the war started. Every major energy facility that gets hit pushes prices higher. This is now a global energy crisis that's about to slam inflation and interest rates worldwide. Source: Wall Street Journal
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🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇶🇦🇸🇦 Israel crossed Iran's energy red line by striking the South Pars gas field, and now both sides are torching each other's energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran fired back at Israel's Haifa refinery, Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG plant), plus refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Israel went after facilities that produce 730 million cubic meters of gas daily. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively dead. Traffic dropped 96% in the first 18 days of war, from thousands of transits to just 98. Saudi Arabia is now desperately pumping oil west through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the strait. If Iran hits Yanbu, analysts say 5-6 million barrels a day disappear from global markets and oil could hit $150. Brent crude has already jumped from the $70s to $115 since the war started. Every major energy facility that gets hit pushes prices higher. This is now a global energy crisis that's about to slam inflation and interest rates worldwide. Source: Wall Street Journal

Mario Nawfal

237,381 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🇾🇪🇸🇦 Elijah Magnier: The war in Yemen may be destroying America’s alternative to Hormuz Washington’s long-term answer to the Strait of Hormuz has a rather inconvenient problem: the alternative route is also becoming a battlefield. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says the renewed Saudi-Houthi war is increasingly about the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Saudi Arabia can bypass part of the Hormuz problem by moving oil west toward Red Sea export terminals. But the Houthis can attack those terminals, target Saudi energy infrastructure and threaten shipping through Bab el-Mandeb. Magnier says that is exactly where the pressure is moving. Instead of opening another front directly against U.S. carriers, he expects the Houthis to concentrate on something everybody eventually notices: The price of oil. That creates an ugly strategic loop. Hormuz is restricted, so exporters look west. The western route runs toward the Red Sea. Yemen then threatens the Red Sea. Magnier says diesel and jet fuel are already tight, while the full economic consequences of disrupted energy flows have yet to arrive. “The real suffering hasn’t started. Wait for the winter.” The plan was to make Hormuz less important. Instead, the war may be making Bab el-Mandeb just as important. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
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🇾🇪🇸🇦 Elijah Magnier: The war in Yemen may be destroying America’s alternative to Hormuz Washington’s long-term answer to the Strait of Hormuz has a rather inconvenient problem: the alternative route is also becoming a battlefield. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says the renewed Saudi-Houthi war is increasingly about the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Saudi Arabia can bypass part of the Hormuz problem by moving oil west toward Red Sea export terminals. But the Houthis can attack those terminals, target Saudi energy infrastructure and threaten shipping through Bab el-Mandeb. Magnier says that is exactly where the pressure is moving. Instead of opening another front directly against U.S. carriers, he expects the Houthis to concentrate on something everybody eventually notices: The price of oil. That creates an ugly strategic loop. Hormuz is restricted, so exporters look west. The western route runs toward the Red Sea. Yemen then threatens the Red Sea. Magnier says diesel and jet fuel are already tight, while the full economic consequences of disrupted energy flows have yet to arrive. “The real suffering hasn’t started. Wait for the winter.” The plan was to make Hormuz less important. Instead, the war may be making Bab el-Mandeb just as important. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

221,288 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

🚢 Vortexa’s chief economist says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running well below the highest figures cited by U.S. officials of 9 million barrels, even as traffic has increased again in recent days. ➤ Vortexa’s 28-day moving average is about 6.5 million barrels per day of total oil. ➤ At one point over the past month, its 7-day average approached 9 mb/d, while one exceptionally busy day reached roughly 15 million barrels. ➤ Vortexa expects near-term flows to stay elevated as loadings from the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rise sharply, Qatar increases activity, with empty tankers positioned outside Hormuz. Vortexa says many crossings are now conducted “dark,” with AIS switched off, so it often confirms them only later through satellite-observed loadings, ship-to-ship transfers, and tankers reappearing outside the Gulf, sometimes as far away as south of India. It says a solid transit estimate usually emerges within 3-4 days, though some voyages can take longer to identify. Rory Johnston
6:20

🚢 Vortexa’s chief economist says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running well below the highest figures cited by U.S. officials of 9 million barrels, even as traffic has increased again in recent days. ➤ Vortexa’s 28-day moving average is about 6.5 million barrels per day of total oil. ➤ At one point over the past month, its 7-day average approached 9 mb/d, while one exceptionally busy day reached roughly 15 million barrels. ➤ Vortexa expects near-term flows to stay elevated as loadings from the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rise sharply, Qatar increases activity, with empty tankers positioned outside Hormuz. Vortexa says many crossings are now conducted “dark,” with AIS switched off, so it often confirms them only later through satellite-observed loadings, ship-to-ship transfers, and tankers reappearing outside the Gulf, sometimes as far away as south of India. It says a solid transit estimate usually emerges within 3-4 days, though some voyages can take longer to identify. Rory Johnston

Drop Site

17,109 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia is getting squeezed from both sides To Saudi Arabia's east, Iran has imposed its new order on the Strait of Hormuz. To its west, the Houthis are consolidating their position around Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint an Israeli official reportedly now considers an even more difficult problem than Hormuz because ships pass so close to Houthi-controlled territory. And the pressure is moving inland. After Saudi Arabia reportedly launched 129 airstrikes against Houthi positions over 48 hours, satellite imagery showed heavy damage at an Aramco facility in Abha, including at least six destroyed storage tanks. Saudi Arabia is now reportedly considering a major Yemen operation even without U.S. participation, after MBS asked Trump twice for American military help and was refused. Meanwhile, the east-west pipeline designed to bypass Hormuz has also been attacked. That leaves Riyadh staring at an ugly strategic map: Hormuz constrained by Iran. Bab el-Mandeb threatened by the Houthis. The east-west escape route under attack. And the Pakistani-led defense arrangements Saudi Arabia hoped would provide another layer of protection have so far produced little more than political support. For years, Saudi Arabia's great advantage was having multiple ways to move its energy to the world. The war is systematically putting pressure on every one of them. Brandon Weichert
57:29

🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia is getting squeezed from both sides To Saudi Arabia's east, Iran has imposed its new order on the Strait of Hormuz. To its west, the Houthis are consolidating their position around Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint an Israeli official reportedly now considers an even more difficult problem than Hormuz because ships pass so close to Houthi-controlled territory. And the pressure is moving inland. After Saudi Arabia reportedly launched 129 airstrikes against Houthi positions over 48 hours, satellite imagery showed heavy damage at an Aramco facility in Abha, including at least six destroyed storage tanks. Saudi Arabia is now reportedly considering a major Yemen operation even without U.S. participation, after MBS asked Trump twice for American military help and was refused. Meanwhile, the east-west pipeline designed to bypass Hormuz has also been attacked. That leaves Riyadh staring at an ugly strategic map: Hormuz constrained by Iran. Bab el-Mandeb threatened by the Houthis. The east-west escape route under attack. And the Pakistani-led defense arrangements Saudi Arabia hoped would provide another layer of protection have so far produced little more than political support. For years, Saudi Arabia's great advantage was having multiple ways to move its energy to the world. The war is systematically putting pressure on every one of them. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

357,506 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

🇵🇰 How could Pakistan get oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz? Pakistan relies on the Gulf region for about 85% of its crude and refined oil imports, per the IE Given that Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the South Asian country is actively seeking alternative routes What are Pakistan’s options? 1️⃣ Importing Saudi oil via the Yanbu port Located on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, this route offers a viable alternative In early March, Ali Pervaiz Malik, Pakistan's Federal Minister for Petroleum, met with Saudi Ambassador Nawaf bin Said Al-Malki. The two officials agreed to continue their cooperation in the energy sector. Malik revealed that the Saudi authorities had assured the security of oil supplies through the Port of Yanbu, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan 2️⃣ Importing fuel from the UAE via the Fujairah port Pakistan’s largest refinery, Pak-Arab Refinery Company (PARCO), has already secured two crude oil shipments from outside the Strait of Hormuz This has enabled the refinery to continue operations and extend its crude stock coverage. One of the shipments, carrying 70,000 barrels, came from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) via the Fujairah port
1:05

🇵🇰 How could Pakistan get oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz? Pakistan relies on the Gulf region for about 85% of its crude and refined oil imports, per the IE Given that Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the South Asian country is actively seeking alternative routes What are Pakistan’s options? 1️⃣ Importing Saudi oil via the Yanbu port Located on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, this route offers a viable alternative In early March, Ali Pervaiz Malik, Pakistan's Federal Minister for Petroleum, met with Saudi Ambassador Nawaf bin Said Al-Malki. The two officials agreed to continue their cooperation in the energy sector. Malik revealed that the Saudi authorities had assured the security of oil supplies through the Port of Yanbu, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan 2️⃣ Importing fuel from the UAE via the Fujairah port Pakistan’s largest refinery, Pak-Arab Refinery Company (PARCO), has already secured two crude oil shipments from outside the Strait of Hormuz This has enabled the refinery to continue operations and extend its crude stock coverage. One of the shipments, carrying 70,000 barrels, came from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) via the Fujairah port

Sputnik

47,804 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇮🇶🇮🇷 Panic Grips Iraq As Saudi Arabia Could Launch Massive Airstrikes Against Iran Backed Proxies After Drones From Iraq Hit Vital Saudi Oil Pipeline Iran backed militias operating in Iraq are facing mounting pressure after drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia’s strategic East West oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, causing injuries and damage. Iraq has launched an investigation, dismissed a military commander in Maysan province and closed the Shalamcheh and Chazabeh border crossings with Iran. Saudi Arabia has so far shown restraint at Baghdad’s request, but Riyadh has made clear that it reserves the right to take all necessary measures to defend the Kingdom. Iran’s proxy network is now facing a potentially powerful Saudi response.
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JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇮🇶🇮🇷 Panic Grips Iraq As Saudi Arabia Could Launch Massive Airstrikes Against Iran Backed Proxies After Drones From Iraq Hit Vital Saudi Oil Pipeline Iran backed militias operating in Iraq are facing mounting pressure after drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia’s strategic East West oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, causing injuries and damage. Iraq has launched an investigation, dismissed a military commander in Maysan province and closed the Shalamcheh and Chazabeh border crossings with Iran. Saudi Arabia has so far shown restraint at Baghdad’s request, but Riyadh has made clear that it reserves the right to take all necessary measures to defend the Kingdom. Iran’s proxy network is now facing a potentially powerful Saudi response.

War Radar

52,331 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen