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One of the biggest problems with modern economics is that it began confusing mathematical elegance with scientific truth. To make economic models mathematically tractable, economists have to simplify the real world—often dramatically. That’s not necessarily ideological. It’s what you have to do if you want to solve the equations....

12,707 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

5 Kommentare

Profilbild von Tim Worstall
Tim Worstallvor 5 Tagen

The other way to describe this is "I know that doesn't add up but I want it to be true, so there!"

Profilbild von Rick McGahey
Rick McGaheyvor 5 Tagen

Good piece. My mentor Robert Heilbroner called economics' attachment to this "suicidal formalism."

Profilbild von AXEC
AXECvor 5 Tagen

“But eventually the math became the master rather than the servant. Assumptions about perfectly rational people, equilibrium, efficient markets, and simplified human behavior persisted partly because adding more of the messy reality of how humans and economies actually work makes the equations much harder to solve.” (Evonomics) Economics is not yet a science, and 'scientism' is as good a characterization as Feynman's 'cargo cult science', but all this has nothing to do with mathematics. The fact is that economists (i) used the false branch of math, and (ii) they committed tons of formal errors. For proof, see Barzilai and the crumbling of the unsafe citadel Mathiness and the Ur-Blunder Profit (not mathematics) is the key Cross-references: Math/Mathiness The history of economic thought is the history of scientific failure. The major approaches (Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism, and their derivatives) are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, and materially/ formally inconsistent. They all got profit wrong. When the subject's foundational concepts are inconsistent, the entire analytical superstructure is scientifically worthless. When the axioms are false, mathematics cannot develop its analytical power. Economists use calculus. This is due to the behavioral axiom of constrained optimization. ‡ But economics is not a behavioral science; it is a genuine systems science. And the appropriate math is the elementary algebra that underlies microeconomic and macroeconomic accounting. For details, see Cross-references: Accounting Specifically Economics between mathiness, dyscalculia, and idiocy Key Issues: Formalization, empty formalism, common sense, nonsense Every science has developed its specific branch of mathematics. The representative economist does not even understand that the proper math of economics is the elementary algebra that underlies accounting. Instead, they maximize utility and equalize marginal utility, which is a NONENTITY. To call this idiocy 'scientism' is a euphemism. As Georgescu-Roegen put it: “In fact, the history of every science, including that of economics, teaches us that the elementary is the hotbed of the errors that count most.” The folks at Evonomics are right with their critique, but too incompetent for the unavoidable Paradigm Shift. They will drown in their own blather. ‡ Marginalism comes from hard-core proposition HC2: “HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium states.” (Weintraub)

Profilbild von Graham Hendry
Graham Hendryvor 6 Tagen

There's no such thing as scientific truth. Only consensus.

Profilbild von Tariq Golden Hour
Tariq Golden Hourvor 5 Tagen

If your energy model assumes rational dispatch and perfect storage, Saturn wants its business plan back.

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––Charlie Barnett: "Consciousness and the computability of it. It sounds like, or at least in the past, that you've implied that consciousness is computable. Some, like Roger Penrose, have argued the opposite, and he's argued that consciousness is non-computational, and he uses Gödel's incompleteness theorems to argue that the mind can see truths that a purely algorithmic system can't derive, and therefore the brain must be using some kind of non-computable process when it comes to consciousness, something beyond what machines can do. What would you say to a view like that? David Deutsch: Yet again, it is using an impossible conception of what knowledge is. So Penrose thinks that when we see a proof of a mathematical theorem, we are touching certainty, we are god-like entities when we're mathematicians. But that's not true. Our mathematical knowledge is conjectural, just like our knowledge of physics. It's even more removed from our senses, because it's not true that the interior of our brains and the interior of our thoughts is more accessible to us than the world we perceive through our senses, or the world that we perceive through our theories, the center of the sun. We know lots about the center of the sun, even though no one has ever perceived it, and perhaps no one ever will. So mathematical truths are based on conjecture. What Gödel showed is that there is no firm ground underneath mathematical theories either. There's no way of proving that the standards of proof that we currently use are perfectly rigorous. And there have been cases in history where they have shown not to be rigorous. I think Pernot, who was the first to axiomatize the principles of the natural numbers, his first attempt at that was wrong. And it's interesting that he did not say, well, I've axiomatized them, therefore there's nothing to them other than my axioms. No, he said, oh dear, my axioms don't correctly represent the real number, the natural numbers, so I have to change them. So he was grasping, conjecturing for a reality, an abstract reality, just like scientists try to grasp physical reality. So the same epistemology applies to mathematics as it does to science."

Deutsch Explains

13,826 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

.Naval: Every human is a lottery ticket bet on the future of the species. One of the things that you really learn when you read David Deutsch’s theories and you authenticate them for yourself is you realize humans are universal explainers. That means everything that we know in the universe follows the laws of physics, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise. If you think otherwise, then please present your better theory that explains the world. If you can’t do that, then you have to go with the laws of physics. Well, the laws of physics are completely computable. They can fit inside a Turing machine or computer, and a computer can simulate the laws of physics with arbitrary accuracy, limited only by the specific power of that computer. If you increase the power of that computer, you can simulate them more accurately. So humans already simulate—in our minds we simulate—and through our computers we simulate the weather, we simulate quasars, we even simulate human systems. We simulate the economy. We simulate all kinds of things. So anything that can be understood, we can understand in our minds. This is something the AGI people get wrong when they talk about superintelligence. There is nothing out there that can understand something fundamentally that we can’t understand. It might be faster at it, it might have more compute, it might have more memory, but there’s no concept that it can understand that we can’t ourselves understand. So we are maximal universal explainers. That means every human is capable of unbounded creativity. Anyone could be the next Einstein or Fermi or Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos or Jonas Salk or whatever. So we can create anything. And if we can create anything, every human is a lottery ticket bet on the future of the species.

Arjun Khemani

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Demis Hassabis just told a room full of academics that they’re running out of time. Not the engineers. Not the technologists. The economists. The philosophers. The people who are supposed to understand what a civilization actually is. Hassabis: “It’s very urgent that we really think about the second-order consequences.” He wasn’t talking about the technology. He was talking about everything that comes after it. Hassabis: “I’m always a little bit astounded when I talk to economists about what’s happening and it’s sort of, they’re pretty skeptical. ‘Where’s it, where’s it coming in the GDP?’” The architects of the global economy are asking where the biggest economic shift in human history is showing up in a spreadsheet. That’s not skepticism. That’s institutional paralysis dressed up as rigor. Hassabis: “It’s ten times the Industrial Revolution.” The Industrial Revolution didn’t just move capital. It burned the feudal system to the ground and birthed the modern world. Hassabis is telling us to multiply that violence by ten. Hassabis: “We’re going to be in a world for the first time, if we get the technology right, where we’re a non-zero-sum world for the first time in humanity’s existence. How can that not need a new type of economic system?” Every economic model you have ever lived under shares the exact same foundational assumption. Scarcity. Capitalism. Communism. Mercantilism. Feudalism. Four names for the mathematics of starvation. Hassabis: “I don’t think it’s any of the ones we’ve tried, because they were all done under the guise of a zero-sum, a limited, a scarce world.” He’s not saying capitalism failed. He’s saying the premise underneath it is about to dissolve. And nobody has written the replacement. But scarcity didn’t just shape our economies. It shaped our identities. You found meaning in your labor. You found virtue in your utility. You worked so you didn’t die. Every concept of purpose humans have ever constructed was forged in a world where things run out. Where choices cost something. Where suffering had a function. Remove scarcity and you don’t just disrupt markets. You collapse the entire philosophical framework through which human beings have understood what it means to live. Hassabis: “There’s the even harder question of how do we want to evolve our society and what is virtuous, what is meaning, what is purpose.” The technology is solvable. The economics is redesignable. But philosophy itself was built inside scarcity. Ethics is the study of hard choices. Meaning is what we extract from struggle. Purpose is what we build against resistance. Take that away and the entire architecture of human meaning loses its load-bearing wall. Hassabis: “I think that’s going to need lots of great philosophers.” He’s asking for thinkers who don’t exist yet. The engineers are about to automate your survival. And in doing so, they will automate your purpose. We spent all of human history fighting for the right to stop struggling. We have no idea what happens to the human mind when we actually win.

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Steven Bartlett

19,876 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

.Naval: Epistemology, which is a fancy word for the theory of how knowledge grows or how knowledge growth occurs. And we've all been told since we're young that there's a scientific method and that scientists sort of do this stuff in white lab coats and we're supposed to accept it because of this thing called the scientific method. And then they give us true beliefs that we can then say, well the science is settled and we take that we move on. And we all only have a very, very vague understanding of how this works. And people say, well maybe you go out in the real world, you look at what's happening, you make all these observations, and then based on that you form a theory, you test the theory against more observations, and the more observations you get the closer you get to the truth. And once you have enough observation it's true and then you call it a scientific theory or a law and it's settled and you move on. And this is the popular conception of how science works. And as Popper pointed out and as you take even further, this is completely wrong. And so I'd love for you to get into that, which is what is knowledge? How does it grow? What is the real scientific method? And how do we figure things out? David Deutsch: I love the way you just stated the prevailing view there and laced every aspect of it with the contempt that it deserves. So you just went through touching every base. It's amazing that this series of misconceptions is still common sense. I mean, that it was common sense at a time when we didn't really have science or when science was just starting up, when the main issue in science was freeing itself from dogmatism, freeing itself from religion, freeing itself from authority, and so on. There it was understandable that people would look for an alternative source of authority and they would think, oh, it's sense impressions. We can see the world and you know, these religious people, they can't even see God and so on. And so we are confined to what we can see. That's where we get our ideas from. And as you say, that is completely false. Sense impressions, like all observation, even the most careful scientific observation is all theory laden. And theories are inherently fallible. I mean, we actually want to replace our best theories. Everybody who does a PhD is technically anyway, working to overturn something in the existing body of knowledge. You're not turned away at the door if you say, I don't believe this stuff, I'm going to produce something better. Whereas for most of human history, that was exactly what you were forbidden to do. The idea was that we already had all the important knowledge. If you want to discover something new, what you had to make sure of was that it didn't contradict the existing knowledge. Now, you have to make sure that it does contradict existing knowledge. So more or less. Naval: Yeah, it's this tradition of criticism that you've talked about in the West, that the Enlightenment really ushered in the Enlightenment era. David Deutsch: It has been institutionalized. So in many ways, our institutions are wiser than we are. So the institutions of science, for instance, have this built in, even if scientists actually don't always act that way. In fact, they often don't act that way, and act in a dogmatic way and try to preserve the status quo and are resistant to new ideas and so on. But the institutions, the way the procedures of science work, makes the right thing happen in the end anyway, regardless of what the people are trying to do. Naval: So you're saying the knowledge of the true scientific method is embedded in the institutions of science in the PhD process? David Deutsch: Well, the best scientific method that we know of, and one shouldn't really think of it as a method, you know, there's this wonderful lecture by Popper when he first was made a professor at the London School of Economics. He was made a professor of scientific method, and his first six lectures, I wish the rest of them were, the first six lectures are on the internet somewhere. And he starts the first one by saying, I am the first professor of scientific method in the British Empire. The British Empire still existed at the time, more or less. And so the first thing I want to say to you is that there is no such thing as the scientific method. And then he goes on from there. So this subject does not exist. So if any of you have come here to learn the handle that you have to turn in order to make scientific knowledge come out the other end, you're going to be disappointed.

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