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Opus 4.7 first-hour impressions Ran the canvas tree growth test twice. 4.6: nailed the animation both times 4.7: static tree, no growth animation — twice 4.7's thinking is noticeably shorter and faster though (trimmed some 4.6 thinking in the clip for pacing). Not the upgrade direction I expected on...

488,197 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Ran into a Chinese ML researcher at a rooftop bar in Hudson Yards on Saturday. DeepMind lanyard in his pocket. Two glasses of baijiu in. Loose tie. Laptop open on the bar. Position check running. He saw the screen. "Is that Polymarket" Yeah. "You trade it with Opus 4.7" I nodded. He dragged a stool over. "I ran the internal eval on 4.7 last month. Best reasoning model we've tested on adversarial time-series. Nobody outside the lab is using it for money yet. You're the first I've seen" I asked what the eval looked like. "We hand the model raw wallet data and tell it to find signal. 4.7 finds it faster than our quants. Then legal kills the experiment. Same every quarter" I showed him the scanner. 86M trades. Public dataset nobody outside maintainers touches it. 14,000 wallets in. Filter by floor WR, trade count, size, recency. 9 wallets out. Opus 4.7 chewed it in 38 minutes on a $5 VPS. "Why 4.7 and not Codex" Codex writes code. 4.7 reads behavior. Different problem. "The filter" 40-200 trades. 74+ lifetime WR. Sub $1,500 avg. Active last 45 days. 3 qualifying 21-day windows. "Why those bands" Above 200 is a fund. Below 40 is luck. Between is the edge. A fill landed mid-conversation. +$128 on BTC+100K 5-min. "How does it enter" Each wallet only prints in its zone. 83% crypto. 51% politics. 49% sports. Copy only inside the zone. "Domain conditioning. We published on it in March. Nobody ships it retail" I ship it. Four Python scripts. Claude Code wrote 80% in a weekend. Delay 21 min. Bet size is the signal. $900 normal, $1,600 is 1.8 sigma. Size up. Exit mirrors source. 74.1% of max gain. Stale past 18h under 3% gets cut. Sharpe 2.67 453 trades 81.7% WR $600 seed +$41,985 in 31 days He set the glass down. "4.7 is a weapon on this data. Most people use it to write essays. You built a printer" He leaned in. "One more thing. Rerun the filter with 4.7 every 7 days. The wallet set rotates. Your 9 today are not your 9 in a month" Execution orderbook layer, no middleman. For those who don't build - He pulled out his phone, typed something, stopped. "If anyone at the lab asks, we never spoke" I said we didn't. I found 4.7 myself. He smiled. "Good answer" He finished the baijiu and walked to the elevator.

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37,596 次观看 • 5 个月前