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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท REPARATIONS OR RE-DETERRENCE? Iran is reportedly seeking $27B in what Alan Eyre, JCPOA Negotiator, identifies as a demand for reparations or the unblocking of frozen assets. While Alan notes that the U.S. will never officially pay "reparations," Tehran is using its control of the Strait as a new...

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Mario Nawfal

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ IRANโ€™S EXISTENTIAL REBUILD Even though the U.S. has targeted steel and petrochemical plants, JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre warns that Tehran is playing a weak hand very strongly. Alan notes that the regime is single-mindedly focused on surviving the bombardment and finding revenue to rebuild its missile and drone inventory. Eyre observes that while the U.S. focuses on midterms, Iran is focused on an existential battle for long-term deterrence. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ IRANโ€™S EXISTENTIAL REBUILD Even though the U.S. has targeted steel and petrochemical plants, JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre warns that Tehran is playing a weak hand very strongly. Alan notes that the regime is single-mindedly focused on surviving the bombardment and finding revenue to rebuild its missile and drone inventory. Eyre observes that while the U.S. focuses on midterms, Iran is focused on an existential battle for long-term deterrence. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war, while Americans think the opposite. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just broke down why the Israelis are right. "The US has achieved none of its strategic goals. Zero." Iran survived, kept its red lines, and walked away with a new form of strategic deterrence. The missile and drone forces that can close the Strait are still intact. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war, while Americans think the opposite. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just broke down why the Israelis are right. "The US has achieved none of its strategic goals. Zero." Iran survived, kept its red lines, and walked away with a new form of strategic deterrence. The missile and drone forces that can close the Strait are still intact. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ THE RED SEA THREAT: SCARING THE MARKETS The threat of closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a powerful card that JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre believes Iran is saving for a potential U.S. strike on its infrastructure. Alan argues that a formal military closure isn't even necessary; the regime only needs to scare the insurance markets to halt global maritime traffic. Eyre points out that Trumpโ€™s blockade strategy may backfire by irritating key allies like India and China. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ THE RED SEA THREAT: SCARING THE MARKETS The threat of closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a powerful card that JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre believes Iran is saving for a potential U.S. strike on its infrastructure. Alan argues that a formal military closure isn't even necessary; the regime only needs to scare the insurance markets to halt global maritime traffic. Eyre points out that Trumpโ€™s blockade strategy may backfire by irritating key allies like India and China. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทDiplomacy isn't a one-page memo; it's a "Bataan Death March" of grueling technical sessions that both sides are currently avoiding. Alan Eyre emphasizes that strategic messaging discipline has vanished, replaced by social media outbursts that sabotage the negotiating table. As a former JCPOA Negotiator, Alan argues that Iran is "fully ready" for a return to war simply because they no longer trust the U.S. to offer anything in return for peace. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทDiplomacy isn't a one-page memo; it's a "Bataan Death March" of grueling technical sessions that both sides are currently avoiding. Alan Eyre emphasizes that strategic messaging discipline has vanished, replaced by social media outbursts that sabotage the negotiating table. As a former JCPOA Negotiator, Alan argues that Iran is "fully ready" for a return to war simply because they no longer trust the U.S. to offer anything in return for peace. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

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JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre compares the current administration to a car with a stuck accelerator and no steering wheel or reverse gear. Alan contends that Trump is conflating military ability with strategic success, mistakenly viewing a carrier group as a "Swiss Army knife" that can solve any geopolitical crisis. Eyre warns that military escalation alone will not force Iran to relinquish its leverage over the world's energy supply. Alan Eyre
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JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre compares the current administration to a car with a stuck accelerator and no steering wheel or reverse gear. Alan contends that Trump is conflating military ability with strategic success, mistakenly viewing a carrier group as a "Swiss Army knife" that can solve any geopolitical crisis. Eyre warns that military escalation alone will not force Iran to relinquish its leverage over the world's energy supply. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The ceasefire won't stop Iran from quietly building toward a nuclear weapon. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Tehran's military will assume that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. poses another existential threat to the nations leadership. "One month, two months, six months, a year after this war ends, the military in charge of Iran, barring the unforeseen, will be thinking it's just a matter of time unless we have enough strategic deterrence." The Strait of Hormuz, missile rebuilds, and a nuclear push. None of that was on the table when Khamenei was alive. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The ceasefire won't stop Iran from quietly building toward a nuclear weapon. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Tehran's military will assume that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. poses another existential threat to the nations leadership. "One month, two months, six months, a year after this war ends, the military in charge of Iran, barring the unforeseen, will be thinking it's just a matter of time unless we have enough strategic deterrence." The Strait of Hormuz, missile rebuilds, and a nuclear push. None of that was on the table when Khamenei was alive. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran could open the strait for 60 days and lose legal control of it forever. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre warns the text doesn't actually guarantee Iran retains management once ships start moving. "If Iran opens the strait for 60 days without explicitly preserving its own control, then restoring that control later will be very difficult and could bring international legal pressure." Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran could open the strait for 60 days and lose legal control of it forever. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre warns the text doesn't actually guarantee Iran retains management once ships start moving. "If Iran opens the strait for 60 days without explicitly preserving its own control, then restoring that control later will be very difficult and could bring international legal pressure." Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท NEGOTIATIONS FAIL AS BLOCKADE BEGINS The recent collapse of high-level talks and Trumpโ€™s new naval blockade justify the cautious pessimism held by JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre. While some saw a silver lining in the 21-hour direct dialogue, Eyre notes that the U.S. continues to wrongly expect total Iranian capitulation following military pressure. Alan warns that despite the remaining ceasefire time, the two sides are currently miles apart. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท NEGOTIATIONS FAIL AS BLOCKADE BEGINS The recent collapse of high-level talks and Trumpโ€™s new naval blockade justify the cautious pessimism held by JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre. While some saw a silver lining in the 21-hour direct dialogue, Eyre notes that the U.S. continues to wrongly expect total Iranian capitulation following military pressure. Alan warns that despite the remaining ceasefire time, the two sides are currently miles apart. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ POLITICS OVER PEACE: THE VANCE FACTOR All politics is local, and JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggests JD Vance entered the room more as a presidential frontrunner than a traditional diplomat. Alan believes the U.S. wasn't looking for a true compromise, but rather a simple "yes" to demands that now include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Eyre highlights that the Vice President's need for a political win makes a flexible deal nearly impossible. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ POLITICS OVER PEACE: THE VANCE FACTOR All politics is local, and JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggests JD Vance entered the room more as a presidential frontrunner than a traditional diplomat. Alan believes the U.S. wasn't looking for a true compromise, but rather a simple "yes" to demands that now include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Eyre highlights that the Vice President's need for a political win makes a flexible deal nearly impossible. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท 60% ENRICHMENT: SIGNALING OR PROVOCATION? Alan Eyre explains that while Iran reached 60% enrichmentโ€”the hardest part of the processโ€”it wasn't necessarily a sprint to a weapon. This move was a calculated signaling measure designed to gain leverage for new negotiations. The danger lies in misinterpretation: what one side calls "leverage," the other sees as a "threat". Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท 60% ENRICHMENT: SIGNALING OR PROVOCATION? Alan Eyre explains that while Iran reached 60% enrichmentโ€”the hardest part of the processโ€”it wasn't necessarily a sprint to a weapon. This move was a calculated signaling measure designed to gain leverage for new negotiations. The danger lies in misinterpretation: what one side calls "leverage," the other sees as a "threat". Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says the U.S. wouldn't be in this war if it weren't for the suspect arguments presented by Israel. Alan notes that Netanyahu has a tremendous sway over Trump, successfully pushing for a hardline stance that previous presidents had rejected for decades. Eyre suggests that both leaders are facing domestic pressures that make scuttling these negotiations politically advantageous for them. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says the U.S. wouldn't be in this war if it weren't for the suspect arguments presented by Israel. Alan notes that Netanyahu has a tremendous sway over Trump, successfully pushing for a hardline stance that previous presidents had rejected for decades. Eyre suggests that both leaders are facing domestic pressures that make scuttling these negotiations politically advantageous for them. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The United States and Iran are on a knife edge as rumor turns to reality regarding a major diplomatic breakthrough. While some sources indicate Trump is ready to sign a preliminary agreement, internal teams are deeply split on whether Washington is genuinely pushing for peace or moving toward a sudden escalatory strike. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre clarifies that the current breakthrough is not a finalized detailed treaty but a highly strategic memorandum of understanding. He reveals that while the framework includes provisions to halt active warfare and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, the critical nuclear issue is being pushed down the road. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The United States and Iran are on a knife edge as rumor turns to reality regarding a major diplomatic breakthrough. While some sources indicate Trump is ready to sign a preliminary agreement, internal teams are deeply split on whether Washington is genuinely pushing for peace or moving toward a sudden escalatory strike. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre clarifies that the current breakthrough is not a finalized detailed treaty but a highly strategic memorandum of understanding. He reveals that while the framework includes provisions to halt active warfare and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, the critical nuclear issue is being pushed down the road. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆThe Gulf is fracturing as the old "all for one" mentality of the GCC dissolves into a balkanized Middle East. While the UAE looks for the exit door to maximize its own oil production, Alan Eyre suggests that countries like Saudi are being forced to find new protectors. Negotiator Eyre argues that as the region atomizes, China is strategically sitting back, happy to take the commodities without assuming any of the security risks or guarantees. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆThe Gulf is fracturing as the old "all for one" mentality of the GCC dissolves into a balkanized Middle East. While the UAE looks for the exit door to maximize its own oil production, Alan Eyre suggests that countries like Saudi are being forced to find new protectors. Negotiator Eyre argues that as the region atomizes, China is strategically sitting back, happy to take the commodities without assuming any of the security risks or guarantees. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ As the White House scrambles to finalize a one page memorandum of understanding with Iran, intense friction is boiling over between Trump and Netanyahu. Israeli officials are privately expressing alarm that this interim agreement will merely legitimize an extended ceasefire and ease heavy economic sanctions without addressing Iran's massive enriched uranium stockpiles. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre talked about this strategic crisis by touching upon the crucial point of massive military supply shortages the U.S. is contending with. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ As the White House scrambles to finalize a one page memorandum of understanding with Iran, intense friction is boiling over between Trump and Netanyahu. Israeli officials are privately expressing alarm that this interim agreement will merely legitimize an extended ceasefire and ease heavy economic sanctions without addressing Iran's massive enriched uranium stockpiles. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre talked about this strategic crisis by touching upon the crucial point of massive military supply shortages the U.S. is contending with. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why the Kushner playbook fails completely when it comes to Iran. "If there's a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran, if the U.S. presence is back in Iran, that's death to the Islamic Republic." Waving billions at a regime that profits from sanctions and fears Western culture more than poverty will never work. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why the Kushner playbook fails completely when it comes to Iran. "If there's a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran, if the U.S. presence is back in Iran, that's death to the Islamic Republic." Waving billions at a regime that profits from sanctions and fears Western culture more than poverty will never work. Alan Eyre

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The deal that stumped diplomats for years fits on two pages, and that might be exactly the point. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explained what may happen next. "Ambiguity is the feature and not the bug." Iran wants Lebanon in the ceasefire. Whether that's a bridge too far is the question nobody has answered yet. Alan Eyre
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The deal that stumped diplomats for years fits on two pages, and that might be exactly the point. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explained what may happen next. "Ambiguity is the feature and not the bug." Iran wants Lebanon in the ceasefire. Whether that's a bridge too far is the question nobody has answered yet. Alan Eyre

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