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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ceasefire won't stop Iran from quietly building toward a nuclear weapon. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Tehran's military will assume that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. poses another existential threat to the nations leadership. "One month, two months, six months, a year after... show more

Mario Nawfal

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46,844 次观看 • 24 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 REPARATIONS OR RE-DETERRENCE? Iran is reportedly seeking $27B in what Alan Eyre, JCPOA Negotiator, identifies as a demand for reparations or the unblocking of frozen assets. While Alan notes that the U.S. will never officially pay "reparations," Tehran is using its control of the Strait as a new form of strategic deterrence. Eyre explains that for the regime, this isn't just about money; it's about a binding guarantee to prevent future economic warfare. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 REPARATIONS OR RE-DETERRENCE? Iran is reportedly seeking $27B in what Alan Eyre, JCPOA Negotiator, identifies as a demand for reparations or the unblocking of frozen assets. While Alan notes that the U.S. will never officially pay "reparations," Tehran is using its control of the Strait as a new form of strategic deterrence. Eyre explains that for the regime, this isn't just about money; it's about a binding guarantee to prevent future economic warfare. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

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The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the harder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lie ahead. "I think it's far more likely we will never get a nuclear deal," says former senior U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre.

The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the harder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lie ahead. "I think it's far more likely we will never get a nuclear deal," says former senior U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war, while Americans think the opposite. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just broke down why the Israelis are right. "The US has achieved none of its strategic goals. Zero." Iran survived, kept its red lines, and walked away with a new form of strategic deterrence. The missile and drone forces that can close the Strait are still intact. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war, while Americans think the opposite. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just broke down why the Israelis are right. "The US has achieved none of its strategic goals. Zero." Iran survived, kept its red lines, and walked away with a new form of strategic deterrence. The missile and drone forces that can close the Strait are still intact. Alan Eyre

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🚨🌍 THIS COULD STILL SPIRAL INTO A GROUND WAR Alan Eyre, former U.S. diplomat, Iran nuclear negotiator, says escalation is still on the table. He says rising troop deployments increase that risk. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The strike that was supposed to eliminate the nuclear threat may have accelerated it. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre just explained why. "Not only have we not eliminated the threat, we've made it less stable. We have lost leverage; the idea we've got this big military stick to hit you with doesn't work anymore. We're not going to use tactical nuclear weapons, so what's left in the bag?" Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The strike that was supposed to eliminate the nuclear threat may have accelerated it. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre just explained why. "Not only have we not eliminated the threat, we've made it less stable. We have lost leverage; the idea we've got this big military stick to hit you with doesn't work anymore. We're not going to use tactical nuclear weapons, so what's left in the bag?" Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre just explained why Iran has the upper hand, and it goes way beyond the matter of controlling the Strait of Hormuz: "Iran will outlast the United States. For them, it is an existential battle; for the U.S, it is just a war of choice. They're able to take far more pain. They don't have elections coming up. And Iran has an experienced machine of internal suppression if the Iranian people do again rise up." All of that before you even factor in the munition shortages and collapsing morale the U.S military is now dealing with. Writer: Mhedi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre just explained why Iran has the upper hand, and it goes way beyond the matter of controlling the Strait of Hormuz: "Iran will outlast the United States. For them, it is an existential battle; for the U.S, it is just a war of choice. They're able to take far more pain. They don't have elections coming up. And Iran has an experienced machine of internal suppression if the Iranian people do again rise up." All of that before you even factor in the munition shortages and collapsing morale the U.S military is now dealing with. Writer: Mhedi

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🇾🇪🇺🇸 THE RED SEA THREAT: SCARING THE MARKETS The threat of closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a powerful card that JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre believes Iran is saving for a potential U.S. strike on its infrastructure. Alan argues that a formal military closure isn't even necessary; the regime only needs to scare the insurance markets to halt global maritime traffic. Eyre points out that Trump’s blockade strategy may backfire by irritating key allies like India and China. Alan Eyre

🇾🇪🇺🇸 THE RED SEA THREAT: SCARING THE MARKETS The threat of closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a powerful card that JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre believes Iran is saving for a potential U.S. strike on its infrastructure. Alan argues that a formal military closure isn't even necessary; the regime only needs to scare the insurance markets to halt global maritime traffic. Eyre points out that Trump’s blockade strategy may backfire by irritating key allies like India and China. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷 The nuclear threat isn't in a building. It never was. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why every military option misses the point. "You cannot get rid of Iran's nuclear weapons program kinetically. Unless you take over the country. Which, again, is preposterous." The knowledge lives in thousands of scientists. You can't bomb a brain trust. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN’S EXISTENTIAL REBUILD Even though the U.S. has targeted steel and petrochemical plants, JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre warns that Tehran is playing a weak hand very strongly. Alan notes that the regime is single-mindedly focused on surviving the bombardment and finding revenue to rebuild its missile and drone inventory. Eyre observes that while the U.S. focuses on midterms, Iran is focused on an existential battle for long-term deterrence. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran will never give up its right to enrich on home soil but that may not be the dealbreaker everyone thinks. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says Iran is willing to cap centrifuges, limit enrichment levels, and accept IAEA verification. And that last part, he says, is the secret sauce. Without verification you're completely blind to Iran's nuclear program. With IAEA inspectors, you're not. A full nuclear surrender was never on the table. Alan Eyre

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HEGSETH: The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, won't seek one, won't buy one, won't have one BRENNAN: The JCPOA said that too HEGSETH: But they didn't have the threat of military force the way we do that Iran respects. President Trump led with military might.

HEGSETH: The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, won't seek one, won't buy one, won't have one BRENNAN: The JCPOA said that too HEGSETH: But they didn't have the threat of military force the way we do that Iran respects. President Trump led with military might.

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🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran gets hammered for a weapon it doesn't have... while Israel's real arsenal gets decades of American silence. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre lays out how the region reads the entire nuclear standoff: "They think it's a gross double standard that Israel gets to have nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't." One country bombed over a program intelligence said was nowhere close. Another sitting on an actual arsenal nobody in Washington will even name. The Middle East isn't missing the irony. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷Diplomacy isn't a one-page memo; it's a "Bataan Death March" of grueling technical sessions that both sides are currently avoiding. Alan Eyre emphasizes that strategic messaging discipline has vanished, replaced by social media outbursts that sabotage the negotiating table. As a former JCPOA Negotiator, Alan argues that Iran is "fully ready" for a return to war simply because they no longer trust the U.S. to offer anything in return for peace. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. can level Iranian society and still lose. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explains why raw firepower has never meant the U.S. will win the war. "This is Tic-Tac-Toe. The U.S. cannot attack Iran enough to cause Iran to capitulate on its red lines. It's not a question of whether the U.S. can collapse Iran into a failed state. If it moves in that direction, the response by Iran is to threaten shipping. All you need is a guy in a fast attack craft, you know, in a handheld rocket launcher, so it's not worth it." A collapsed nation of 95 million people is not a victory. It's a different catastrophe. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are falling apart before they've even started. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says the current chaos mirrors the early Obama-era nuclear negotiations years wasted debating where to meet, not what to agree on. He calls the White House claim that Iran needed extra days because its government was "too fragmented" to respond flat-out "nonsense." Iran refused to negotiate while the U.S. blockade is still in place. Alan Eyre

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