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Sam Altman says AI models will get exponentially more capable and cheaper per task History proves that as costs drop, demand explodes Even as models become efficient enough to run on our phones, the world's hunger for tokens will only increase "capitalism is doing its thing"

Haider.

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38,159 views • 6 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Bloomberg warns that China’s AI price war may make profitability difficult for years. They should be more worried about Wall Street. If the price war continues, the real casualty may not be AI. It may be the entire valuation structure built around it. OpenAI and Anthropic are valued as though frontier intelligence will remain scarce, expensive, and capable of producing software-like margins. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure based on that assumption. Nvidia’s valuation depends on those capital expenditures continuing for years. But Chinese models are driving token prices toward commodity levels. Usage can explode while revenue per token collapses. The servers become busier. The models become cheaper. The profits fail to appear. Nvidia has real revenue and real margins, so it is not the weakest link. But even Nvidia is priced on the belief that today’s extraordinary AI capital expenditure will remain economically justified. If cheaper models, better efficiency, and open weights destroy the expected returns on that infrastructure, Wall Street will not merely reprice OpenAI and Anthropic. It will reprice the entire AI chain. America built the AI bubble on Nvidia. Nvidia built its empire on TSMC. Taiwan built its economic security around TSMC. If Chinese efficiency destroys the economics of brute-force AI, the repricing will not stop in Silicon Valley. It will cross the Pacific and land in Hsinchu. AI may continue transforming the world while the AI bubble collapses. The internet survived 2000. The valuations did not.

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