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Saylor is an idiot Micro Strategy is up an entire $700 per Bitcoin thru have ever bought over the last 6 years. Gross incompetence and not acting in the best interest of $MSTR & $STRC share holders imo. All he has to do is watch our stream 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Finance Freeman 🇺🇸

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25,933 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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MICHAEL SAYLOR IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE The last few days have been the worst for $MSTR in a long time Despite massive share issuance and constant $BTC accumulation, the losses keep piling up: - $11 billion underwater on BTC holdings - MSTR down 72% from its 2025 peak - First BTC sale in four years, just to pay STRC dividends The most convicted Bitcoin holder on earth just blinked Welcome to the other side of that trade
0:16

MICHAEL SAYLOR IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE The last few days have been the worst for $MSTR in a long time Despite massive share issuance and constant $BTC accumulation, the losses keep piling up: - $11 billion underwater on BTC holdings - MSTR down 72% from its 2025 peak - First BTC sale in four years, just to pay STRC dividends The most convicted Bitcoin holder on earth just blinked Welcome to the other side of that trade

bee🐝

43,692 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Michael Saylor and Strategy are driving all of the Bitcoin out of circulation. Since August 11, 2020, Strategy has acquired 714,644 Bitcoin. That is 355.9 Bitcoin per day. And they are not slowing down. In fact, they are speeding up. The blue line is the share of Strategy's share of the remaining mineable supply, and this is only assuming their historical accumulation pace. At this pace, in 2045 they will have over 3.2 million Bitcoin and over 15.2% of the terminal Bitcoin supply. And don't forget: With more capital, their creditworthiness improves. With better creditworthiness, the better the borrowing ability. The better borrowing terms/ability, the faster the accumulation. Strategy is structurally unassailable, and if you don't secure your portion of the network... ...you will only be able to rent exposure. Tick tock.
0:20

Michael Saylor and Strategy are driving all of the Bitcoin out of circulation. Since August 11, 2020, Strategy has acquired 714,644 Bitcoin. That is 355.9 Bitcoin per day. And they are not slowing down. In fact, they are speeding up. The blue line is the share of Strategy's share of the remaining mineable supply, and this is only assuming their historical accumulation pace. At this pace, in 2045 they will have over 3.2 million Bitcoin and over 15.2% of the terminal Bitcoin supply. And don't forget: With more capital, their creditworthiness improves. With better creditworthiness, the better the borrowing ability. The better borrowing terms/ability, the faster the accumulation. Strategy is structurally unassailable, and if you don't secure your portion of the network... ...you will only be able to rent exposure. Tick tock.

Adam Livingston

65,839 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.
0:14

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

Adam Livingston

61,606 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:
0:19

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

104,738 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.
0:11

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,286 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:
0:15

HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:

Adam Livingston

33,368 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Just for those who don't know: Nomad The Savior is not the savior you think he is Let me tell you about his achievements over the last 10 months… He became very active in the discord again last April when he saw that $WZRD was pumping. He then made several attempts to dilute the $WZRD holders He made the BITCOIN•WITCH•COIN rune and started airdropping it to BW holders 3 months ago He said that BW holders had to hold this airdrop to receive 10k Bitcoin Wizard WL He has still not airdropped all of the BITCOIN•WITCH•COIN to BW holders He started muting $WZRD and BW OGs for weeks, splitting the community into two camps He was given the role of CEO after being the worst team member a project has ever seen He claims that he coined the Magic Internet Money slogan, which is a lie.... Eric Vorhees coined it on the Bitcoin Talk Forum in 2013. Bitcoin Wizard - mavensbot 🧙🏻‍♂️ talked about this in one of Farokh's spaces (clip below) He has etched the rune MAGIC•INTERNET•MONEY•MIM and is now starting to dilute the real rune and the $WZRD community again He is trying to destroy $WZRD He is trying to destroy Magic•Internet•Money He is trying to destroy the Bitcoin Wizard If you support this guy, you are not a real bitcoiner nor do you believe in the success of this space.
0:10

Just for those who don't know: Nomad The Savior is not the savior you think he is Let me tell you about his achievements over the last 10 months… He became very active in the discord again last April when he saw that $WZRD was pumping. He then made several attempts to dilute the $WZRD holders He made the BITCOIN•WITCH•COIN rune and started airdropping it to BW holders 3 months ago He said that BW holders had to hold this airdrop to receive 10k Bitcoin Wizard WL He has still not airdropped all of the BITCOIN•WITCH•COIN to BW holders He started muting $WZRD and BW OGs for weeks, splitting the community into two camps He was given the role of CEO after being the worst team member a project has ever seen He claims that he coined the Magic Internet Money slogan, which is a lie.... Eric Vorhees coined it on the Bitcoin Talk Forum in 2013. Bitcoin Wizard - mavensbot 🧙🏻‍♂️ talked about this in one of Farokh's spaces (clip below) He has etched the rune MAGIC•INTERNET•MONEY•MIM and is now starting to dilute the real rune and the $WZRD community again He is trying to destroy $WZRD He is trying to destroy Magic•Internet•Money He is trying to destroy the Bitcoin Wizard If you support this guy, you are not a real bitcoiner nor do you believe in the success of this space.

Magic Internet Money

23,773 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.
0:20

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,471 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST GAVE HIS BITCOIN PRICE TARGET FOR END OF YEAR: "Our expectation right now is end of the year. It should be about $150,000." Bitcoin is currently trading around $59k That is a +150% move from here by December. Saylor holds over 850K Bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet. He is not a disinterested observer. But he has also been more right than wrong on Bitcoin price direction for MANY years.
0:18

🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST GAVE HIS BITCOIN PRICE TARGET FOR END OF YEAR: "Our expectation right now is end of the year. It should be about $150,000." Bitcoin is currently trading around $59k That is a +150% move from here by December. Saylor holds over 850K Bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet. He is not a disinterested observer. But he has also been more right than wrong on Bitcoin price direction for MANY years.

WOLF Bitcoin

28,976 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.
0:12

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Adam Livingston

132,040 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.
0:16

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

Hanzo ㊗️

285,705 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.
0:11

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.

EndGame Macro

33,374 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Lot of people writing about MSTR and STRC. The best thing MSTR did last December was raise $2.2B in cash for a reserve fund. It put investors like myself at ease regarding future dividend obligations. It was armor in a potential bear market. The bear market arrived. But MSTR used their reserves to retire debt. They now have $871M in reserves. This is not what I wanted to see. No one at MSTR cares what I think. STRC is a great feat of engineering whose very success has put it under strain. Why? Because if you successfully launch a product with no volatility returning significantly above the real rate of return you will have tremendous demand. The low volatility means investors will leverage highly. Retail investors. And to have the CEO retweet DEFI shit products built to DO EXACTLY that is irresponsible. I'm not happy right now. No one cares. And everyone gets what they deserve. Some more than others.
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Lot of people writing about MSTR and STRC. The best thing MSTR did last December was raise $2.2B in cash for a reserve fund. It put investors like myself at ease regarding future dividend obligations. It was armor in a potential bear market. The bear market arrived. But MSTR used their reserves to retire debt. They now have $871M in reserves. This is not what I wanted to see. No one at MSTR cares what I think. STRC is a great feat of engineering whose very success has put it under strain. Why? Because if you successfully launch a product with no volatility returning significantly above the real rate of return you will have tremendous demand. The low volatility means investors will leverage highly. Retail investors. And to have the CEO retweet DEFI shit products built to DO EXACTLY that is irresponsible. I'm not happy right now. No one cares. And everyone gets what they deserve. Some more than others.

George Bodine

12,199 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

💎 KASPA HOLDERS SHOW DIAMOND HANDS: 18% OF SUPPLY UNTOUCHED FOR TWO YEARS According to various reports within the Kaspa ecosystem, the amount of $KAS that has not moved at any time in the last two years has hit a new ATH. The likes of Kaspa Daily highlight an incredible figure of 18%... "A growing share of KAS is staying untouched for the long term... a clear sign of increasing conviction among long-term holders"
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💎 KASPA HOLDERS SHOW DIAMOND HANDS: 18% OF SUPPLY UNTOUCHED FOR TWO YEARS According to various reports within the Kaspa ecosystem, the amount of $KAS that has not moved at any time in the last two years has hit a new ATH. The likes of Kaspa Daily highlight an incredible figure of 18%... "A growing share of KAS is staying untouched for the long term... a clear sign of increasing conviction among long-term holders"

BSCN

14,300 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

The treasure our miner Bob was searching for in a colossal block is called RUNES. And he has finally found them in Bitcoin Jurassic. He is generous and will airdrop these RUNES to all holders and supporters. Drop your BTC wallet below for a surprise!
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The treasure our miner Bob was searching for in a colossal block is called RUNES. And he has finally found them in Bitcoin Jurassic. He is generous and will airdrop these RUNES to all holders and supporters. Drop your BTC wallet below for a surprise!

Bitcoin Jurassic

31,570 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🇺🇸Trump at 6:00 PM: "We have jihadists being elected all over the place. We have communism, jihadism." 🇺🇸Abdul at 6:05 PM: "Shut up, idiot. I want our tax dollars spent here in the United States, not abroad to subsidize Netanyahu doing genocide and apartheid."🔥🔥 What courage this man has. He has gained immense popularity all over the globe.👏👏
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🇺🇸Trump at 6:00 PM: "We have jihadists being elected all over the place. We have communism, jihadism." 🇺🇸Abdul at 6:05 PM: "Shut up, idiot. I want our tax dollars spent here in the United States, not abroad to subsidize Netanyahu doing genocide and apartheid."🔥🔥 What courage this man has. He has gained immense popularity all over the globe.👏👏

InfoGram

140,552 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce