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Scott Galloway just explained why China doesn’t need to build better AI than America. It only needs to make American AI worthless. Galloway: “I think China is beginning to engage in what I’ll call AI dumping.” Not competing. Dumping. It’s the term economists use for flooding a foreign market...

804,673 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

93,276 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Bloomberg warns that China’s AI price war may make profitability difficult for years. They should be more worried about Wall Street. If the price war continues, the real casualty may not be AI. It may be the entire valuation structure built around it. OpenAI and Anthropic are valued as though frontier intelligence will remain scarce, expensive, and capable of producing software-like margins. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure based on that assumption. Nvidia’s valuation depends on those capital expenditures continuing for years. But Chinese models are driving token prices toward commodity levels. Usage can explode while revenue per token collapses. The servers become busier. The models become cheaper. The profits fail to appear. Nvidia has real revenue and real margins, so it is not the weakest link. But even Nvidia is priced on the belief that today’s extraordinary AI capital expenditure will remain economically justified. If cheaper models, better efficiency, and open weights destroy the expected returns on that infrastructure, Wall Street will not merely reprice OpenAI and Anthropic. It will reprice the entire AI chain. America built the AI bubble on Nvidia. Nvidia built its empire on TSMC. Taiwan built its economic security around TSMC. If Chinese efficiency destroys the economics of brute-force AI, the repricing will not stop in Silicon Valley. It will cross the Pacific and land in Hsinchu. AI may continue transforming the world while the AI bubble collapses. The internet survived 2000. The valuations did not.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

13,927 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Jensen Huang just delivered the most important warning no one in Washington is ready to hear. Not about China. About what America is doing to itself. Huang: “We should always have the best technology here. We should always have the most technology here, and the first. But we should also try to compete and win around the world.” Washington heard that and locked onto China. Jensen wasn’t talking about China. He was talking about India. The Middle East. Africa. Southeast Asia. The next two billion people coming online. All of them about to build on somebody’s AI stack. The question was never whether they get the technology. The question is whose name is on it. Huang: “It requires some amount of nuance, some amount of maturity, instead of absolutes. The world is just not absolute.” Washington doesn’t do nuance. Washington does ban lists. Restriction is now the entire American AI strategy. Not deployment. Not adoption. Not global capture. Restriction. As if you win a technology race by refusing to run it. And nobody in Washington understands what happens when you cut somebody off. They don’t stop. They build their own. Every restriction is an invitation to innovate without you. Every ban is a blueprint for independence. Every chip you refuse to sell is a chip someone else learns how to make. You are not slowing competitors down. You are giving them the one thing they never had before. Motivation to never need you again. That is not a hypothetical. That is the pattern. Every single time. Countries that cannot count on American access stop waiting for it. They invest. They recruit. They accelerate. They make breakthroughs they never would have made if Washington had just shown up and competed. You don’t contain progress by withholding it. You pour jet fuel on the one outcome you were trying to prevent. Meanwhile the people making these decisions have never built anything. Not a chip. Not a model. Not a product. Not a company. Bureaucrats writing regulation for an industry they cannot even describe accurately. Committees moving at the speed of subcommittee. And the entire American AI future is being filtered through people whose greatest technological achievement is a shared Google Doc. And here is what no one in that room wants to admit. The United States is not competing against Chinese technology. It is competing against Chinese willingness to show up. While Congress debates which chips to block, Beijing is already on a plane. Signing infrastructure deals across four continents. Not with better hardware. With available hardware. And available has beaten superior in every technology war ever fought. VHS over Betamax. Android over iOS globally. The best product never wins. The most adopted one does. Standards are not products. Standards are dependency. The kind that compounds for generations. Every country running American AI is locked into the American ecosystem permanently. Every country that isn’t belongs to somebody else. And every country America cut off is now building infrastructure designed to ensure it never has to ask again. Huang: “Your policy and what you imagined literally caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.” That is not an opinion. That is the man building the infrastructure of the future telling Washington it is engineering its own irrelevance. The cruelest part is not that America could lose the AI race. It is that America could lose it while being absolutely certain it is winning. Because restriction feels like power. It feels like control. Like dominance. Like you are holding every card. But you are not holding anything. You are just not playing. And every day you sit there writing rules instead of shipping technology, someone else is filling the vacuum you created. History never remembers who built the best technology. Only whose technology the world was already running on when it mattered.

Dustin

46,120 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

China just made Silicon Valley's entire AI industry look like a scam. The US government spent 3 years trying to stop China from building competitive AI. But this backfired HORRIBLY. Here's what happened: Yesterday, a Chinese startup called DeepSeek released a new AI model called V4. It matches the performance of OpenAI and Anthropic's best models. At 1/7th the price. And for the first time ever, it was built on Chinese chips. NOT American ones. That last part is the one that terrifies the west. For context: Since 2022, the US has banned the export of advanced AI chips to China. The entire strategy was built on the assumption that if China can't access Nvidia's best hardware, they can't build frontier AI. But DeepSeek just proved that assumption wrong. Their V4 model was trained and runs on Huawei's Ascend chips. Huawei spent months working directly with DeepSeek to make sure V4 runs across their entire line of AI processors. Jensen Huang even predicted this on a recent podcast: "The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation." That day was yesterday. And the numbers are crazy: DeepSeek V4 costs $3.48 per million output tokens. OpenAI's latest model GPT-5.5 costs $30. Anthropic's Claude charges $25. Same ballpark performance. 7x cheaper. Uber's CTO just admitted they burned through their ENTIRE 2026 AI budget in 4 months using Anthropic's tools. If Uber had used DeepSeek instead, that same budget would have lasted 7 YEARS. 4 months vs 7 years. Same work getting done. But the pricing isn't even the big thing here. The real story is what DeepSeek did with their technical report: They published the benchmarks where they LOSE. Every AI company cherry-picks the tests where their model wins. DeepSeek ran the full comparison against GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini, found they trail frontier models by 3 to 6 months, and printed it anyway. They literally don't care because the price gap makes the performance gap irrelevant for 90% of use cases. So the US export controls didn't slow China down. They ACCELERATED China's independence. Because Chinese developers were FORCED to train models with limited resources, they had to figure out how to make AI radically more efficient. That constraint became their competitive advantage. Every generation of DeepSeek has gotten dramatically cheaper to train. V4 continues the trend. Meanwhile US companies are going the OPPOSITE direction: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro costs $180 per million output tokens. That's 51x more expensive than DeepSeek V4 for comparable work. The Commerce Secretary confirmed this week that ZERO Nvidia advanced chip shipments have actually gone through to China despite being approved in January. So China built frontier AI anyway. Without American chips. At a fraction of the cost. And the market response tells you everything: Chinese chipmaker SMIC surged 10%. Huahong Semiconductor jumped 15%. DeepSeek's Chinese AI competitors Zhipu AI and MiniMax dropped 9% because V4 is destroying them too. DeepSeek is making Silicon Valley's pricing model look like a scam. US tech companies spent $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year. DeepSeek just showed the world you can match their output for pennies. The export controls were supposed to be America's ace card. Instead they taught China how to win without American chips, at American prices nobody can compete with. Jensen Huang was right. This is a horrible outcome. But it's the outcome America built for itself.

Ricardo

281,024 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Eric Schmidt just identified how America loses the AI war despite building better technology, and most people haven’t noticed it’s already happening. Schmidt: “The U.S. is chasing AGI.” America is fixated on one prize. Artificial General Intelligence. The god model. The moonshot that changes everything. Pouring resources into the ultimate breakthrough. China isn’t playing that game at all. Schmidt: “China is shipping day-to-day AI apps, and robotics.” Not waiting for superintelligence. Deploying current AI everywhere right now. Factory floors. Consumer devices. Supply chains. Physical robots at industrial scale. Today, not eventually. America might win the race to AGI and still lose the world. Schmidt: “If Chinese open-source models get good enough…” The strategic blindness is structural. US models are closed, proprietary, expensive. Chinese models like DeepSeek are open and free. Where does the developing world build its digital future? On technology it can access and afford. Which means Chinese. Schmidt: “Much of the world could end up building on them.” America competes for smartest AI. China competes for most embedded AI. And embedded wins. Technical superiority is worthless when the global standard already runs on your competitor’s freely available stack. Schmidt: “We better also be competing with the Chinese in day-to-day stuff.” The US places all chips on the ten-year AGI bet while handing China the entire commercial present. China deploys relentlessly. Robots, apps, infrastructure, all shipping now while America perfects research. Optimize exclusively for breakthrough and you surrender the industrial base. That base determines who controls what actually matters. Superintelligence is strategically meaningless if China owns the hardware running it, the software layer beneath it, and the deployed systems the world depends on. You can build the most advanced AI in existence. If nobody uses it because they’re locked into competitor ecosystems established years earlier while you focused on moonshots, you didn’t win. You built expensive irrelevance. This isn’t about capability. It’s deployment speed, adoption capture, and which technology becomes the foundation everything else builds on. America chases the ceiling. China is becoming the floor. And in technology, the floor matters more. Standards don’t win by being superior. They win by being everywhere first. And once established, switching costs make replacement nearly impossible regardless of technical advantages. We might invent AGI. China might own every system it runs on, every device it connects to, every market it operates in. At that point, creating the most intelligent AI while controlling none of the infrastructure it needs to function isn’t triumph. It’s building the world’s most advanced engine with no vehicle to put it in while your competitor already sold cars to everyone. The war isn’t won in labs. It’s won in factories, phones, and supply chains. And while we perfect the breakthrough, they’re winning the adoption race that actually determines who shapes the future.

Dustin

78,676 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

This is the moment Chinese AI beat American AI. One of the largest public crypto companies in the world just DUMPED OpenAI and Anthropic. Coinbase switched to open-weight Chinese models from Zhipu and DeepSeek, and shaved nearly 50% off the company's internal AI spending. The numbers are absolutely ridiculous: Running the same enterprise workload through Anthropic's Claude costs $4,811. Running it through Zhipu's GLM 5.2 costs $544. That's a 9x price difference for equivalent output. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 sits in the middle at $3,357. DeepSeek's V4 lands at $1,071. Moonshot's Kimi at $948. On the actual benchmarks: Zhipu's GLM 5.2 scored 62.1 on SWE-bench Pro, the gold standard for coding. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 scored 58.6. One AI researcher called GLM 5.2 "at least as good as Opus 4.8 and GPT 5.5." Another called it "the first open model that can really compete with closed-source systems." The Chinese models are not just cheaper but they are now also beating American models on the benchmarks American companies pay $4,811 per workload for. Coinbase did the math first and reacted - more companies will certainly follow. Now watch what happens to the IPO timeline: Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO targeting October at a $965 billion valuation. OpenAI followed days later with its own confidential filing. Both companies built their financial models on the assumption that they could keep charging enterprise prices that are 9 to 33x what Chinese competitors charge for the same task. Brian Armstrong publicly proved customers WILL leave. 45% of companies are now spending over $100,000 per month on AI, up from 20% last year. Every one of those customers is one quarterly budget review away from dumping American AI. OpenAI has reportedly already started preparing major token price cuts. Anthropic is expected to follow. And here's the thing... The export controls were supposed to CRUSH Chinese AI. The US government banned American AI chips, restricted model weights, blacklisted Alibaba and Baidu as Chinese military companies, and just banned Anthropic's flagship model from every foreign national on the planet. The entire premise of the American AI valuation bubble is that Washington can keep China two generations behind. But Chinese labs responded by building cheaper, more efficient models on inferior hardware and pricing them at one ninth the cost of the American alternative. And now American companies are voting with their checkbooks. The dominant American labs are valued at nearly $2 trillion combined on the assumption that their pricing power is durable. Coinbase proved it is not, and every customer doing a year-end budget review will be looking at the same math. For investors, the question here is what happens to the Anthropic IPO at $965 billion when the company is being forced to cut prices to defend share against open-weight Chinese models that score higher on the benchmarks. For everyone else, the bigger question is what happens when Washington spent four years and billions of dollars trying to contain Chinese AI, and the only thing that actually shifted in the end was American customers.

Ricardo

252,492 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Chamath: "Nvidia is not doing what's in the best interest of the United States." 🇺🇸🇨🇳 "I think we can all do the math. About 47% of all of NVIDIA's revenue goes to China and Chinese-related countries." "And I think when you peel back this onion, what you will find is a whole raft of companies that were stood up to buy these Nvidia GPUs to essentially act as a waystation for China." "And I think that is the big problem." "Let's have a thought starter: if 47% of all of the AI capability and horsepower is being shipped to three Asian countries, where do you think the apps that require that amount of horsepower live?" "Is there a Cursor of Bhutan that we did not know? Is there a great shopping app in Cambodia that's come out of nowhere, that's AI powered?" "I think the answer is no." "Every single time we have an advance in the United States, how is it that Alibaba shows up with something incredible? DeepSeek shows up with something better?" "At every turn and at every step of AI, they are at the same rate or one step ahead." "To be honest with you, I think the real problem that we have is that Nvidia is not doing what is in the best interest of the United States." "You have a American company that has been working around the guidelines at every turn to try to land silicon into the hands of China." "Late last year, they introduced this thing called the H20 that was explicitly designed for China and to be compliant with US rules at the time." "Which again, gives these guys substantial performance." "This is a case where (Nvidia) has plausible deniability. I sell something to a Singaporean registered company? Plausible deniability." "What am I supposed to do? You can't expect me to audit it. I think that's what NVIDIA's answer will be to this question." "But what is the real expectation? At a minimum, the United States should have a mechanism to understand it." "It is implausible that if you did one or two layers of work, you would not find that most of this traffic is being used by Chinese organizations."

The All-In Podcast

910,450 просмотров • 1 год назад