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#SEBI clears key reforms -Expense ratios cut with statutory levies excluded -Brokerage limits lowered across cash & derivatives -incentives allowed for debt issuers - stock broker norms eased. Big moves to reduce costs and boost market efficiency.

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58,049 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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S&P just cut Oracle to one notch above junk, and the stock went UP anyway. Think about that for a second... Back in December I told you the AI arms race would keep rewarding capex right up until the moment it didn't, and I pointed straight at Oracle. The stock is now down more than 55% from its high and this week S&P downgraded its credit to the lowest rung of investment grade, which means one more cut and Oracle wears a junk rating for the first time in its history. The downgrade landed because the cash bleed is getting MUCH worse. S&P now sees Oracle burning close to $42 billion in free cash flow next year, nearly double its earlier estimate, with capex rocketing toward $90 billion and a single customer (OpenAI) sitting behind roughly half of that $638 billion backlog. The bond market looked at all of that and reached for insurance. The stock market looked at the exact same company and bid it higher. When those two disagree like this, 45 years in this business has taught me to side with the bondholders every single time. They get paid before shareholders do, so they tend to see the trouble first. And Oracle is now funding this buildout with equity instead of debt, with another $20 billion in stock issuance slated for this year. A company confident in its own cash flows borrows against them. A company bracing for a downgrade dilutes its shareholders instead. Oracle showed you which one it is. If you want to know how to actually make money in a market this dominated by Big Tech narratives, that is what July 22nd is for. 14 elite investors are sharing the specific longs and shorts they are backing with their own capital - for just $99. We entered the golden era of stock picking. Grab your ticket today:
0:48

S&P just cut Oracle to one notch above junk, and the stock went UP anyway. Think about that for a second... Back in December I told you the AI arms race would keep rewarding capex right up until the moment it didn't, and I pointed straight at Oracle. The stock is now down more than 55% from its high and this week S&P downgraded its credit to the lowest rung of investment grade, which means one more cut and Oracle wears a junk rating for the first time in its history. The downgrade landed because the cash bleed is getting MUCH worse. S&P now sees Oracle burning close to $42 billion in free cash flow next year, nearly double its earlier estimate, with capex rocketing toward $90 billion and a single customer (OpenAI) sitting behind roughly half of that $638 billion backlog. The bond market looked at all of that and reached for insurance. The stock market looked at the exact same company and bid it higher. When those two disagree like this, 45 years in this business has taught me to side with the bondholders every single time. They get paid before shareholders do, so they tend to see the trouble first. And Oracle is now funding this buildout with equity instead of debt, with another $20 billion in stock issuance slated for this year. A company confident in its own cash flows borrows against them. A company bracing for a downgrade dilutes its shareholders instead. Oracle showed you which one it is. If you want to know how to actually make money in a market this dominated by Big Tech narratives, that is what July 22nd is for. 14 elite investors are sharing the specific longs and shorts they are backing with their own capital - for just $99. We entered the golden era of stock picking. Grab your ticket today:

George Noble

18,966 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

SpaceX was just rumored to be worth $800B But retail investors are still locked out Unless you buy $SATS It's the next retail favorite: a SpaceX treasury play trading at a HUGE discount to NAV. Shoutout @transhumanica for being the first to call this 🧵🚀 You know Echostar ($SATS) as the OG telecom behind Dish Network. It was on death's doorstep but 3 blockbuster Spectrum deals changed everything. 1. $17B deal with SpaceX (half stock/half cash) 2. $23B spectrum sale to AT&T 3. Another $2.6B deal with SpaceX (all stock) These deals turned $SATS into a SpaceX proxy. It got $11.1B in SpaceX stock at a $400B valuation. If the $800B is true. $SATS is now sitting on $22.2B of SpaceX stock and tens of billions in cash and other assets. But its market cap was only $23B after the market close Friday (even after +10% pop) So what is $SATS actually worth? Well even if these rumors are false the math is: ~$11.1B in SpaceX ~$17B in projected net cash ~$6.4B in other spectrum assets ~$3B Boost mobile So ~$37.5B NAV. SATS popped 10% Friday because of the rumor and only closed at a $23B. Let's compute NAV with SpaceX worth $800B. ~$22.2B in SpaceX ~$17B in projected net cash ~$6.4B in other spectrum assets ~$3B Boost mobile So ~$48.6B NAV Echostar is trading at ~100% discount to its balance sheet if this valuation rumor is true. What's crazy is that $SATS should be trading at a PREMIUM to net asset value. The closest publicly traded SpaceX proxy is DXYZ. It's a closed-end fund with about 50% of its assets in SpaceX. It trades at a whopping 270% premium. $3 for every $1 of SpaceX... Now you may be wondering why I’m projecting $SATS to have $17B in cash despite currently having $27B of debt, and the SpaceX and AT&T deals only offering around $30B cash. This is probably the biggest thing that investors don’t currently understand. The Echostar holding company isn’t responsible for paying off the debt of some of its subsidiaries like Dish Network and Hughes Network Systems. These account for around $14B of that debt. Echostar only needs to pay off $11.4B of its debt because its tied to its spectrum assets as collateral. Hence $17B in cash. It's worth noting that the deals aren't done yet + SpaceX $800B is a rumor. But the government wants these deals done and SpaceX will be worth $2-3T by 2030. So how can you not get in and buy discounted SpaceX stock through $SATS. Another reason $SATS will explode? 95% of Echostar's float is held by institutions. That remaining 5% will get attacked by retail once its figured out. At the time I'm making this thread $SATS jumped 10% Sunday night pre-market. That's +20% in 72 hours. The market is waking up but it's still very confused. Big thanks to @transhumanica who published the original thesis on Echostar being a SpaceX proxy. You MUST follow him as he was behind the $KRKNF Anduril proxy TOO. He's got some of the best research in the game and a must follow on this platform if you want real alpha. If you want to stay up to date with $SATS, I'm going to cover it more here Michael Sikand 🦑 Will also discuss on my stream tmrw with WOLF I highly recommend you just watch my YouTube video as it's far more comprehensive than this thread.
13:58

SpaceX was just rumored to be worth $800B But retail investors are still locked out Unless you buy $SATS It's the next retail favorite: a SpaceX treasury play trading at a HUGE discount to NAV. Shoutout @transhumanica for being the first to call this 🧵🚀 You know Echostar ($SATS) as the OG telecom behind Dish Network. It was on death's doorstep but 3 blockbuster Spectrum deals changed everything. 1. $17B deal with SpaceX (half stock/half cash) 2. $23B spectrum sale to AT&T 3. Another $2.6B deal with SpaceX (all stock) These deals turned $SATS into a SpaceX proxy. It got $11.1B in SpaceX stock at a $400B valuation. If the $800B is true. $SATS is now sitting on $22.2B of SpaceX stock and tens of billions in cash and other assets. But its market cap was only $23B after the market close Friday (even after +10% pop) So what is $SATS actually worth? Well even if these rumors are false the math is: ~$11.1B in SpaceX ~$17B in projected net cash ~$6.4B in other spectrum assets ~$3B Boost mobile So ~$37.5B NAV. SATS popped 10% Friday because of the rumor and only closed at a $23B. Let's compute NAV with SpaceX worth $800B. ~$22.2B in SpaceX ~$17B in projected net cash ~$6.4B in other spectrum assets ~$3B Boost mobile So ~$48.6B NAV Echostar is trading at ~100% discount to its balance sheet if this valuation rumor is true. What's crazy is that $SATS should be trading at a PREMIUM to net asset value. The closest publicly traded SpaceX proxy is DXYZ. It's a closed-end fund with about 50% of its assets in SpaceX. It trades at a whopping 270% premium. $3 for every $1 of SpaceX... Now you may be wondering why I’m projecting $SATS to have $17B in cash despite currently having $27B of debt, and the SpaceX and AT&T deals only offering around $30B cash. This is probably the biggest thing that investors don’t currently understand. The Echostar holding company isn’t responsible for paying off the debt of some of its subsidiaries like Dish Network and Hughes Network Systems. These account for around $14B of that debt. Echostar only needs to pay off $11.4B of its debt because its tied to its spectrum assets as collateral. Hence $17B in cash. It's worth noting that the deals aren't done yet + SpaceX $800B is a rumor. But the government wants these deals done and SpaceX will be worth $2-3T by 2030. So how can you not get in and buy discounted SpaceX stock through $SATS. Another reason $SATS will explode? 95% of Echostar's float is held by institutions. That remaining 5% will get attacked by retail once its figured out. At the time I'm making this thread $SATS jumped 10% Sunday night pre-market. That's +20% in 72 hours. The market is waking up but it's still very confused. Big thanks to @transhumanica who published the original thesis on Echostar being a SpaceX proxy. You MUST follow him as he was behind the $KRKNF Anduril proxy TOO. He's got some of the best research in the game and a must follow on this platform if you want real alpha. If you want to stay up to date with $SATS, I'm going to cover it more here Michael Sikand 🦑 Will also discuss on my stream tmrw with WOLF I highly recommend you just watch my YouTube video as it's far more comprehensive than this thread.

Michael Sikand 🦑

56,862 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

The U.S. is considering a deal that would let Nvidia and AMD sell certain AI chips to China, with a 15% cut of that business going straight to the government. Two big questions: Should we ship chips to China or other adversaries? And is this 15% fee a tax, a tariff, or just pay to play? My answer to the first is yes, as long as they are building on the American tech stack. Even if we ship older generations, they remain dependent on U.S. firmware and software. That keeps us in control and prevents competitors like Huawei from catching up. On the 15% cut, call it a tax, tariff, or shakedown. It's still incremental cash flow for shareholders, and the market likes it. Here's the real issue for me... We added 3 trillion dollars in debt. I don't want free checks going out to everyone. I want America to stay the number one place for the world to invest. That means using this revenue to reduce the deficit, maintaining fiscal discipline, and keeping our technological edge. Lose that confidence, and everything changes.
6:13

The U.S. is considering a deal that would let Nvidia and AMD sell certain AI chips to China, with a 15% cut of that business going straight to the government. Two big questions: Should we ship chips to China or other adversaries? And is this 15% fee a tax, a tariff, or just pay to play? My answer to the first is yes, as long as they are building on the American tech stack. Even if we ship older generations, they remain dependent on U.S. firmware and software. That keeps us in control and prevents competitors like Huawei from catching up. On the 15% cut, call it a tax, tariff, or shakedown. It's still incremental cash flow for shareholders, and the market likes it. Here's the real issue for me... We added 3 trillion dollars in debt. I don't want free checks going out to everyone. I want America to stay the number one place for the world to invest. That means using this revenue to reduce the deficit, maintaining fiscal discipline, and keeping our technological edge. Lose that confidence, and everything changes.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

23,362 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

CONFIRMED > USA GOVERNMENT is using the IRANIAN WAR to cause a World Economic Crisis to cause a Devaluation of USD$ in order to erase the USA NATIONAL DEBT which is now $39.2 trillion ! Anton Kobyakov (a senior advisor to Vladimir Putin and key organizer of Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum) stated last year on this topic & I posted on last September In a press briefing at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on or around September 5–9, 2025, Kobyakov said: “The U.S. is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Remember the size of their debt — $35 trillion. These two sectors are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system… As in the 1930s and the 1970s, the U.S. plans to solve its financial problems at the world’s expense — this time by pushing everyone into the ‘crypto cloud.’ Over time, once part of the U.S. national debt is placed into stablecoins, Washington will devalue that debt… Put simply: they have a $35 trillion currency debt, they’ll move it into the crypto cloud, devalue it — and start from scratch.” He framed this as the U.S. deliberately shifting debt into USD-pegged stablecoins (not “switching to a crypto coin currency” as official U.S. money) to devalue it via inflation or market dynamics, solving America’s debt problem “at the world’s expense.” The debt figure he used was ~$35 trillion. Today, it is now $39 trillion. This war with Iran + oil-market collapse → banking collapse → world depression is all designed to “speed this up”, a perfect tool of War to accelerate this crypto debt scheme. As of March 2026, the now serious tensions & battle incidents involving Iran (including attacks on oil tankers and disruptions to oil exports) have affected global oil prices and markets. The evidence is quite clear that U.S. is engineering a war with Iran specifically to trigger a banking collapse & accelerate a crypto-based debt reset. Quick reality check on the core claim Stablecoins and U.S. debt: Many stablecoins (e.g., USDT, USDC) are already heavily backed by the U.S. Treasuries and dollars. Increased stablecoin adoption can indirectly help finance the U.S. debt by boosting demand for Treasuries, * can be adapted to bringbdebt to qlmlst zero. The U.S. still has to service the actual Treasury bonds held by investors worldwide & a catastrophic world economic collaspe will enable USA to execute this plan Historical parallels: Kobyakov cited (1930s/1970s dollar devaluations) did happen, but they were overt policy moves during gold-standard changes — not a crypto scheme Most Western and neutral analysts called the remarks Russian geopolitical messaging amid U.S.–Russia tensions, not insider evidence of a U.S. plot, but would say that. ..wouldn't they ? Links: 🌍💰 🌍💰 Summary U.S. Debt Scam via Cryptocurrency Anton Kobyakov exposed at EEF 2025 a U.S. scam to defraud creditors of its $35 trillion debt ( now $39.2 trillion) by manipulating gold and crypto markets, as he stated: “The U.S. is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets.” - Debt Fraud Scheme: The $39 trillion U.S. debt drives a deceptive plan to cheat creditors using gold and crypto markets as tools for financial manipulation. - Crypto and Gold Facade: These sectors hide the U.S.’s intent to undermine global currencies, defrauding creditors while maintaining dollar dominance. - Creditor Defrauding Reset: The U.S. uses stablecoins to reset debt, betraying global trust and evading fiscal accountability. Global Economic Betrayal: This scam imposes devastating losses on creditors worldwide, destabilizing international finance for the U.S. gain. Now here we are and instead of years to wait, this WAR has sped up the time frame, & is the prime asset to execute this plan, especially as over 23% of Worlds OIL, GAS & 30% FERTILISER has been cut off and banks being to Break! WTS
1:14

CONFIRMED > USA GOVERNMENT is using the IRANIAN WAR to cause a World Economic Crisis to cause a Devaluation of USD$ in order to erase the USA NATIONAL DEBT which is now $39.2 trillion ! Anton Kobyakov (a senior advisor to Vladimir Putin and key organizer of Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum) stated last year on this topic & I posted on last September In a press briefing at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on or around September 5–9, 2025, Kobyakov said: “The U.S. is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Remember the size of their debt — $35 trillion. These two sectors are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system… As in the 1930s and the 1970s, the U.S. plans to solve its financial problems at the world’s expense — this time by pushing everyone into the ‘crypto cloud.’ Over time, once part of the U.S. national debt is placed into stablecoins, Washington will devalue that debt… Put simply: they have a $35 trillion currency debt, they’ll move it into the crypto cloud, devalue it — and start from scratch.” He framed this as the U.S. deliberately shifting debt into USD-pegged stablecoins (not “switching to a crypto coin currency” as official U.S. money) to devalue it via inflation or market dynamics, solving America’s debt problem “at the world’s expense.” The debt figure he used was ~$35 trillion. Today, it is now $39 trillion. This war with Iran + oil-market collapse → banking collapse → world depression is all designed to “speed this up”, a perfect tool of War to accelerate this crypto debt scheme. As of March 2026, the now serious tensions & battle incidents involving Iran (including attacks on oil tankers and disruptions to oil exports) have affected global oil prices and markets. The evidence is quite clear that U.S. is engineering a war with Iran specifically to trigger a banking collapse & accelerate a crypto-based debt reset. Quick reality check on the core claim Stablecoins and U.S. debt: Many stablecoins (e.g., USDT, USDC) are already heavily backed by the U.S. Treasuries and dollars. Increased stablecoin adoption can indirectly help finance the U.S. debt by boosting demand for Treasuries, * can be adapted to bringbdebt to qlmlst zero. The U.S. still has to service the actual Treasury bonds held by investors worldwide & a catastrophic world economic collaspe will enable USA to execute this plan Historical parallels: Kobyakov cited (1930s/1970s dollar devaluations) did happen, but they were overt policy moves during gold-standard changes — not a crypto scheme Most Western and neutral analysts called the remarks Russian geopolitical messaging amid U.S.–Russia tensions, not insider evidence of a U.S. plot, but would say that. ..wouldn't they ? Links: 🌍💰 🌍💰 Summary U.S. Debt Scam via Cryptocurrency Anton Kobyakov exposed at EEF 2025 a U.S. scam to defraud creditors of its $35 trillion debt ( now $39.2 trillion) by manipulating gold and crypto markets, as he stated: “The U.S. is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets.” - Debt Fraud Scheme: The $39 trillion U.S. debt drives a deceptive plan to cheat creditors using gold and crypto markets as tools for financial manipulation. - Crypto and Gold Facade: These sectors hide the U.S.’s intent to undermine global currencies, defrauding creditors while maintaining dollar dominance. - Creditor Defrauding Reset: The U.S. uses stablecoins to reset debt, betraying global trust and evading fiscal accountability. Global Economic Betrayal: This scam imposes devastating losses on creditors worldwide, destabilizing international finance for the U.S. gain. Now here we are and instead of years to wait, this WAR has sped up the time frame, & is the prime asset to execute this plan, especially as over 23% of Worlds OIL, GAS & 30% FERTILISER has been cut off and banks being to Break! WTS

𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐙 🇷🇺🇮🇪

804,497 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Here's a wrap of some of the major highlights from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in the past few weeks: 🔸Those in the semiconductor & electronics component manufacturing space have a lot to cheer about. SEZ reforms have been notified to promote investments and manufacturing. The area required for setting up a factory has been reduced to 10 hectares from the earlier 50 hectares. Moreover, manufacturers have also been allowed to supply domestically after payment of applicable duties. 🔸 Good news for leather exporters, especially those in the MSME sector. Port restrictions on export of finished, wet blue, and EI tanned leather have been removed, which means they can be exported from any port or Inland Container Depots across the country. Also, mandatory testing and certifications have been removed. 🔸India is cementing its position as the preferred global investment destination with FDI inflow of $81.04 Bn in FY 2024-25, growing by 14% over 2023-24. Manufacturing FDI has grown by 18% during the same period, reaching $19.04 Bn, in a big boost to 'Make In India' 🔸All-women Farmers Producer Company in Odisha gets to send their produce of the famous Amrapali mangoes to Italy. This is a big boost for our horticulture exports and a huge opportunity for our farmers to increase their income 🔸The first commercial consignment of J&K premium cherries heads to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Farmers now have a huge market open for them to sell their produce and profit.
0:48

Here's a wrap of some of the major highlights from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in the past few weeks: 🔸Those in the semiconductor & electronics component manufacturing space have a lot to cheer about. SEZ reforms have been notified to promote investments and manufacturing. The area required for setting up a factory has been reduced to 10 hectares from the earlier 50 hectares. Moreover, manufacturers have also been allowed to supply domestically after payment of applicable duties. 🔸 Good news for leather exporters, especially those in the MSME sector. Port restrictions on export of finished, wet blue, and EI tanned leather have been removed, which means they can be exported from any port or Inland Container Depots across the country. Also, mandatory testing and certifications have been removed. 🔸India is cementing its position as the preferred global investment destination with FDI inflow of $81.04 Bn in FY 2024-25, growing by 14% over 2023-24. Manufacturing FDI has grown by 18% during the same period, reaching $19.04 Bn, in a big boost to 'Make In India' 🔸All-women Farmers Producer Company in Odisha gets to send their produce of the famous Amrapali mangoes to Italy. This is a big boost for our horticulture exports and a huge opportunity for our farmers to increase their income 🔸The first commercial consignment of J&K premium cherries heads to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Farmers now have a huge market open for them to sell their produce and profit.

Piyush Goyal

13,457 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Banks Smash Record Trading Revenues as Global Volatility Ignites Q1 2026 Bonanza Wall Street’s biggest banks delivered a trading revenue explosion in the first quarter of 2026, powered by intense market volatility that sent client activity through the roof. JPMorgan Chase $JPM led the pack with a record $11.6 billion in markets revenue, up 20% year-over-year. Fixed-income, currencies and commodities (FICC) surged 21% to $7.1 billion, while equities trading climbed 17% to $4.5 billion. The bank’s overall profit hit $16.5 billion, or $5.94 per share, crushing estimates and marking its second-best quarter ever. Not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs $GS posted record equities trading revenue of $5.33 billion, up 27%, as hedge-fund prime brokerage and derivatives desks lit up amid wild swings. The firm’s markets business contributed to a 14% jump in total revenue to $17.23 billion and a 19% rise in profit to $5.63 billion. Citigroup $C wasn’t far behind. Its markets revenue soared 19% to $7.2 billion its highest quarterly haul in over a decade. FICC revenue climbed 13% to $5.2 billion on strong commodities, credit and currency flows, while equities trading exploded 39% to a record $2.1 billion. Bank of America $BAC saw sales and trading revenue rise 13% to $6.4 billion, with equities trading jumping 30% to $2.83 billion on heightened client hedging and positioning. Morgan Stanley capped the blowout with its own record quarter: total revenue hit $20.58 billion, up 16%, driven by a record $5.15 billion in equities trading, up 25%. Analysts had called for the largest banks to deliver around $18 billion in stock-trading revenue alone for the quarter. The numbers show Wall Street is on pace to smash that target, with combined trading revenues across the majors exceeding $40 billion. The driver was unmistakable: extreme volatility from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy-price swings and anxious investor flows. Traders racked up gains facilitating hedges in commodities and currencies while capitalizing on rapid moves across rates, credit and equities. Jamie Dimon himself highlighted the “increasingly complex set of global economic risks” even as his bank’s trading desks delivered the goods. Surging client activity in commodities, credit, emerging markets and energy futures turned uncertainty into revenue for the desks. Fixed-income units thrived on credit and currency flows; equities desks saw strong prime brokerage and derivatives demand. For the first time in years, every major player reported double-digit gains in sales and trading. The numbers confirm, the big banks thrive in high volatility environments served on a gold platter by President Trump. Q1 2026 will go down as one of the strongest trading quarters on record, setting a high bar for the rest of the year as volatility shows no signs of fading.
2:48

Banks Smash Record Trading Revenues as Global Volatility Ignites Q1 2026 Bonanza Wall Street’s biggest banks delivered a trading revenue explosion in the first quarter of 2026, powered by intense market volatility that sent client activity through the roof. JPMorgan Chase $JPM led the pack with a record $11.6 billion in markets revenue, up 20% year-over-year. Fixed-income, currencies and commodities (FICC) surged 21% to $7.1 billion, while equities trading climbed 17% to $4.5 billion. The bank’s overall profit hit $16.5 billion, or $5.94 per share, crushing estimates and marking its second-best quarter ever. Not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs $GS posted record equities trading revenue of $5.33 billion, up 27%, as hedge-fund prime brokerage and derivatives desks lit up amid wild swings. The firm’s markets business contributed to a 14% jump in total revenue to $17.23 billion and a 19% rise in profit to $5.63 billion. Citigroup $C wasn’t far behind. Its markets revenue soared 19% to $7.2 billion its highest quarterly haul in over a decade. FICC revenue climbed 13% to $5.2 billion on strong commodities, credit and currency flows, while equities trading exploded 39% to a record $2.1 billion. Bank of America $BAC saw sales and trading revenue rise 13% to $6.4 billion, with equities trading jumping 30% to $2.83 billion on heightened client hedging and positioning. Morgan Stanley capped the blowout with its own record quarter: total revenue hit $20.58 billion, up 16%, driven by a record $5.15 billion in equities trading, up 25%. Analysts had called for the largest banks to deliver around $18 billion in stock-trading revenue alone for the quarter. The numbers show Wall Street is on pace to smash that target, with combined trading revenues across the majors exceeding $40 billion. The driver was unmistakable: extreme volatility from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy-price swings and anxious investor flows. Traders racked up gains facilitating hedges in commodities and currencies while capitalizing on rapid moves across rates, credit and equities. Jamie Dimon himself highlighted the “increasingly complex set of global economic risks” even as his bank’s trading desks delivered the goods. Surging client activity in commodities, credit, emerging markets and energy futures turned uncertainty into revenue for the desks. Fixed-income units thrived on credit and currency flows; equities desks saw strong prime brokerage and derivatives demand. For the first time in years, every major player reported double-digit gains in sales and trading. The numbers confirm, the big banks thrive in high volatility environments served on a gold platter by President Trump. Q1 2026 will go down as one of the strongest trading quarters on record, setting a high bar for the rest of the year as volatility shows no signs of fading.

Financelot

18,129 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Years in banking taught me that successful stock picking comes down to 6 specific criteria. Whether markets are rising, falling, or stagnant, these criteria consistently identify quality companies Here's what they are: Criteria #1: Gross Margin >60% Companies with 60%+ gross margins aren't getting undercut by competitors. The product is defensible and hard to replicate. Service businesses typically achieve these numbers more easily than manufacturing due to lower overhead costs. Criteria #2: Return on Invested Capital Above 10% How effectively does the company turn money into more money? I want minimum 10-12% returns. Many companies barely hit 4%—you'd earn more in a high-yield savings account. Criteria #3: Free Cash Flow >20% Think of Amazon sellers constantly reinvesting in inventory—they never touch the cash. You want businesses that actually generate free cash flow of 20% or higher. This means they won't need to borrow money or dilute shareholders. They're fundamentally stronger. Criteria #4: Interest Coverage Ratio 3x+ Can they easily pay interest on debt from profits? I want this at least 3x so that even if rates spike, the business survives. This is your big warning signal for financial risk. Criteria #5: Forget P/E Ratios P/E ratios are useless snapshots. Netflix in 2015 had a P/E of 554x—everyone said "you're an idiot." Earnings then went up 100x. What matters is whether profits grow and fundamentals stack up, not the snapshot ratio. Criteria #6: The Moat How difficult is it for competitors to replicate the business? Apple's moat isn't just the phone—it's the stores, brand ecosystem, and App Store working together. Compare that to frozen yogurt shops competing themselves into bankruptcy. Look for deep, defensible competitive advantages. The Simpler Path Too complicated? Buy quality ETFs like SPQ (S&P 500 Quality Index) or IWQ (MSCI World Quality). You'll own the top 100 companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple instead of all 500 mediocre S&P companies. Stop donating money to Wall Street. Start building wealth with quality companies and real strategy.
9:37

Years in banking taught me that successful stock picking comes down to 6 specific criteria. Whether markets are rising, falling, or stagnant, these criteria consistently identify quality companies Here's what they are: Criteria #1: Gross Margin >60% Companies with 60%+ gross margins aren't getting undercut by competitors. The product is defensible and hard to replicate. Service businesses typically achieve these numbers more easily than manufacturing due to lower overhead costs. Criteria #2: Return on Invested Capital Above 10% How effectively does the company turn money into more money? I want minimum 10-12% returns. Many companies barely hit 4%—you'd earn more in a high-yield savings account. Criteria #3: Free Cash Flow >20% Think of Amazon sellers constantly reinvesting in inventory—they never touch the cash. You want businesses that actually generate free cash flow of 20% or higher. This means they won't need to borrow money or dilute shareholders. They're fundamentally stronger. Criteria #4: Interest Coverage Ratio 3x+ Can they easily pay interest on debt from profits? I want this at least 3x so that even if rates spike, the business survives. This is your big warning signal for financial risk. Criteria #5: Forget P/E Ratios P/E ratios are useless snapshots. Netflix in 2015 had a P/E of 554x—everyone said "you're an idiot." Earnings then went up 100x. What matters is whether profits grow and fundamentals stack up, not the snapshot ratio. Criteria #6: The Moat How difficult is it for competitors to replicate the business? Apple's moat isn't just the phone—it's the stores, brand ecosystem, and App Store working together. Compare that to frozen yogurt shops competing themselves into bankruptcy. Look for deep, defensible competitive advantages. The Simpler Path Too complicated? Buy quality ETFs like SPQ (S&P 500 Quality Index) or IWQ (MSCI World Quality). You'll own the top 100 companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple instead of all 500 mediocre S&P companies. Stop donating money to Wall Street. Start building wealth with quality companies and real strategy.

Felix Prehn 🐶

40,089 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

When does the AI spending actually end? It's the question Wall Street doesn't want to answer. The Big Four hyperscalers are pouring $600+ billion into AI infrastructure this year alone. That's triple what they spent two years ago. Amazon just guided $200 billion in 2026 capex. The company is expected to go negative on free cash flow this year - somewhere between $17 billion and $28 billion in the red, depending on which bank you ask. Alphabet's free cash flow is projected to fall 90%. From $73 billion to $8 billion. These are the most profitable companies in history. And they're borrowing money to fund a buildout with no clear end date. The depreciation problem is what nobody wants to discuss: Nvidia chips run on a 2-3 year product cycle. Each new generation delivers 2-3x better performance. So the H100s shipping today will be economically obsolete by 2027. BUT the hyperscalers are depreciating these assets over 5-6 years. Meta extended its useful life estimates to five-and-a-half years. That single change cut $2.9 billion from their 2025 depreciation expense. Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle - all made similar moves. Run the numbers and depreciation is understated by roughly $176 billion between 2026 and 2028. That means Oracle's earnings could be inflated by 27% and Meta's by 21%. This isn't fraud. GAAP allows it. But it's aggressive accounting that makes current earnings look far better than the underlying economics. The debt picture makes it even WORSE. The top five hyperscalers raised $108 billion in debt last year - more than 3x the prior nine-year average. JP Morgan projects $1.5 trillion in tech debt issuance ahead. They're even securitizing data center debt into asset-backed securities. $13.3 billion this year alone. Those structures have a history. This looks eerily similar to the data connectivity buildout circa 2000. In that cycle, telecoms built massive infrastructure on borrowed money chasing demand that never materialized. By 2002, less than 5% of capacity was in use. The pattern is familiar: Capex explodes. Returns don't materialize. Accounting flatters earnings. Debt bridges the gap. Then the music stops. I'm not making predictions about timing. But when free cash flow turns negative, when hyperscalers hold more debt than cash for the first time, when accounting changes are inflating earnings by double digits... The math changes. We've seen this play out before multiple times. AND IT DOESN'T END WELL
1:12

When does the AI spending actually end? It's the question Wall Street doesn't want to answer. The Big Four hyperscalers are pouring $600+ billion into AI infrastructure this year alone. That's triple what they spent two years ago. Amazon just guided $200 billion in 2026 capex. The company is expected to go negative on free cash flow this year - somewhere between $17 billion and $28 billion in the red, depending on which bank you ask. Alphabet's free cash flow is projected to fall 90%. From $73 billion to $8 billion. These are the most profitable companies in history. And they're borrowing money to fund a buildout with no clear end date. The depreciation problem is what nobody wants to discuss: Nvidia chips run on a 2-3 year product cycle. Each new generation delivers 2-3x better performance. So the H100s shipping today will be economically obsolete by 2027. BUT the hyperscalers are depreciating these assets over 5-6 years. Meta extended its useful life estimates to five-and-a-half years. That single change cut $2.9 billion from their 2025 depreciation expense. Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle - all made similar moves. Run the numbers and depreciation is understated by roughly $176 billion between 2026 and 2028. That means Oracle's earnings could be inflated by 27% and Meta's by 21%. This isn't fraud. GAAP allows it. But it's aggressive accounting that makes current earnings look far better than the underlying economics. The debt picture makes it even WORSE. The top five hyperscalers raised $108 billion in debt last year - more than 3x the prior nine-year average. JP Morgan projects $1.5 trillion in tech debt issuance ahead. They're even securitizing data center debt into asset-backed securities. $13.3 billion this year alone. Those structures have a history. This looks eerily similar to the data connectivity buildout circa 2000. In that cycle, telecoms built massive infrastructure on borrowed money chasing demand that never materialized. By 2002, less than 5% of capacity was in use. The pattern is familiar: Capex explodes. Returns don't materialize. Accounting flatters earnings. Debt bridges the gap. Then the music stops. I'm not making predictions about timing. But when free cash flow turns negative, when hyperscalers hold more debt than cash for the first time, when accounting changes are inflating earnings by double digits... The math changes. We've seen this play out before multiple times. AND IT DOESN'T END WELL

George Noble

37,067 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath... The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet. Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved. And here's the part they REALLY love... The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet. So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt." Think about what that actually means. The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit. Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt. This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable. But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents. So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead. The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system. That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit. And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss. Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday: Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once. Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out. Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations. This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times. Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully: Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin." The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding. This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress: "This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone." Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds. Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support. If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is... 🥇
1:23

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath... The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet. Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved. And here's the part they REALLY love... The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet. So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt." Think about what that actually means. The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit. Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt. This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable. But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents. So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead. The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system. That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit. And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss. Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday: Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once. Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out. Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations. This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times. Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully: Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin." The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding. This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress: "This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone." Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds. Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support. If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is... 🥇

George Noble

90,727 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Bitcoin is known as digital gold. But is it also the new real estate? Core DAO 🔶’s head of institution Hong Sun and Michael Saylor think so. Hong explains how bitcoin is evolving, BTCFi is reshaping institutional strategy and what's next for the multi-trillion dollar asset class. Listen in on Talking Tokens Podcast: Timestamps 0:00 – Who is Hong Sun & what is Core? 0:54 – From Paxos to BTCFi: Hong's journey 2:01 – Why bitcoin yield matters for adoption 2:34 – Yield without custody risk: Time locks explained 4:03 – lstBTC and tokenizing yield 5:44 – ETF buyers vs. yield seekers: the next wave 6:51 – How institutions are thinking about BTC yield 8:12 – Why time locks minimize risk 10:25 – Tax efficiency & regulatory clarity 11:08 – From gold to fixed income: Bitcoin's new narrative 13:14 – Allocating bitcoin in portfolios 15:01 – Is bitcoin the new real estate? 17:14 – Growth of BTCFi across L1s 19:28 – Core as infra for Bitcoin utility 21:30 – New products: Rev+ and more 23:29 – Sharing gas fees with builders 24:37 – The stablecoin connection to BTCFi 26:28 – Monetizing distribution for issuers 27:27 – Incentives for builders & devs on Core 29:33 – Educating institutions on safe BTC yield 32:24 – BTCFi: treasuries, ETFs & traders 34:08 – Positive carry for market makers 35:25 – What dual staking unlocks 38:13 – BTCFi TAM & billion-dollar upside 40:23 – Composable Bitcoin in traditional finance 42:15 – Liquidity, volatility & macro impacts 44:14 – Hong’s advice: think big, build aligned systems
47:24

Bitcoin is known as digital gold. But is it also the new real estate? Core DAO 🔶’s head of institution Hong Sun and Michael Saylor think so. Hong explains how bitcoin is evolving, BTCFi is reshaping institutional strategy and what's next for the multi-trillion dollar asset class. Listen in on Talking Tokens Podcast: Timestamps 0:00 – Who is Hong Sun & what is Core? 0:54 – From Paxos to BTCFi: Hong's journey 2:01 – Why bitcoin yield matters for adoption 2:34 – Yield without custody risk: Time locks explained 4:03 – lstBTC and tokenizing yield 5:44 – ETF buyers vs. yield seekers: the next wave 6:51 – How institutions are thinking about BTC yield 8:12 – Why time locks minimize risk 10:25 – Tax efficiency & regulatory clarity 11:08 – From gold to fixed income: Bitcoin's new narrative 13:14 – Allocating bitcoin in portfolios 15:01 – Is bitcoin the new real estate? 17:14 – Growth of BTCFi across L1s 19:28 – Core as infra for Bitcoin utility 21:30 – New products: Rev+ and more 23:29 – Sharing gas fees with builders 24:37 – The stablecoin connection to BTCFi 26:28 – Monetizing distribution for issuers 27:27 – Incentives for builders & devs on Core 29:33 – Educating institutions on safe BTC yield 32:24 – BTCFi: treasuries, ETFs & traders 34:08 – Positive carry for market makers 35:25 – What dual staking unlocks 38:13 – BTCFi TAM & billion-dollar upside 40:23 – Composable Bitcoin in traditional finance 42:15 – Liquidity, volatility & macro impacts 44:14 – Hong’s advice: think big, build aligned systems

Jacquelyn Melinek

26,125 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Ray Dalio just released 500 years of data showing exactly how empires collapse. His conclusion? America is in Stage 6 of 9. The dangerous stage. Here's what his math actually says about where we're headed: Dalio studied every major empire collapse since 1500. Dutch. British. American. The pattern repeats with machine-like precision every 50-100 years. Not because of politics or ideology. Because of math. The "Big Debt Cycle" has nine stages. We're currently in Stage 6. The dangerous one. Here's how it works: Stages 1-4: The Rise Countries borrow to build infrastructure. Debt is productive. GDP grows faster than debt service costs. Everything feels sustainable. This was the U.S. from 1945-2000. Low debt-to-GDP. Strong productivity growth. Borrowing made sense. Stage 5: The Top Debt service hits 15-20% of GDP. Interest costs start crowding out productive spending. But everyone's too comfortable to notice. Markets boom. Wealth gaps explode. The U.S. crossed this threshold around 2008. Stage 6: The Crisis This is where we are now. Federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP. Two choices: Let interest rates rise and crash the economy. Or print money and create inflation. Both destroy wealth. Just differently. In the 1930s, we chose deflation. In 2008, we chose money printing. In 2026, we're doing both at the same time. Stages 7-9: The Reset Either massive restructuring through negotiation. Or war. History shows wars resolve 90% of these cycles. Not because humans are violent. Because debts become mathematically impossible to service. Dalio's data is clear: When internal inequality peaks AND external rivals emerge, conflicts become inevitable. The U.S. has both right now. Wealth inequality hasn't been this high since 1929. China's GDP grew 6-8% annually while we borrowed to maintain consumption. Dalio's advice for Stage 6 is simple: Sell debt. Buy gold. Not because gold produces anything. Because governments print money to escape debt traps. Gold has risen 3x since 2020. Exactly as the model predicted. But here's what actually matters for regular investors: You can't stop the Big Cycle. But you can position for it. Dalio's framework identifies five big forces that drive every transition: 1. Productivity growth 2. Debt cycles 3. Money supply 4. Wealth gaps 5. Geopolitical power shifts When all five align in the same direction, the cycle turns. Right now, all five are pointing toward Stage 7. Productivity growth is slowing. Debt service costs are rising faster than GDP. Money supply expanded 40% since 2020. Wealth concentration is at century highs. China is building parallel financial infrastructure. The math doesn't lie. So what does positioning actually look like? Dalio's research across 500 years shows three consistent patterns: Pattern 1: Fiat currencies lose value during Stage 6-7 transitions Every time. No exceptions. Governments print to escape debt traps. The dollar, pound, and euro all follow the same path. This is why gold and hard assets outperform during these periods. Pattern 2: Geographic diversification matters more than asset class diversification When one empire declines, another rises. Dutch to British. British to American. The cycle doesn't end. It relocates. Portfolios concentrated in declining empires get crushed. Pattern 3: Volatility spikes 3-5x during Stage 6 The 1930s saw 50%+ market swings. The 1970s stagflation created wild inflation volatility. 2008-2009 saw daily 5% moves. Stage 6 isn't calm. It's chaos punctuated by brief stability. Here's the data that should terrify you: U.S. debt-to-GDP: 120% (highest since WWII) Annual interest costs: approaching $1 trillion China's GDP growth: 6-8% while U.S. averages 2-3% Time between 1929 inequality peak and crash: 8 months Time since current inequality peak: We're in it now
4:52

Ray Dalio just released 500 years of data showing exactly how empires collapse. His conclusion? America is in Stage 6 of 9. The dangerous stage. Here's what his math actually says about where we're headed: Dalio studied every major empire collapse since 1500. Dutch. British. American. The pattern repeats with machine-like precision every 50-100 years. Not because of politics or ideology. Because of math. The "Big Debt Cycle" has nine stages. We're currently in Stage 6. The dangerous one. Here's how it works: Stages 1-4: The Rise Countries borrow to build infrastructure. Debt is productive. GDP grows faster than debt service costs. Everything feels sustainable. This was the U.S. from 1945-2000. Low debt-to-GDP. Strong productivity growth. Borrowing made sense. Stage 5: The Top Debt service hits 15-20% of GDP. Interest costs start crowding out productive spending. But everyone's too comfortable to notice. Markets boom. Wealth gaps explode. The U.S. crossed this threshold around 2008. Stage 6: The Crisis This is where we are now. Federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP. Two choices: Let interest rates rise and crash the economy. Or print money and create inflation. Both destroy wealth. Just differently. In the 1930s, we chose deflation. In 2008, we chose money printing. In 2026, we're doing both at the same time. Stages 7-9: The Reset Either massive restructuring through negotiation. Or war. History shows wars resolve 90% of these cycles. Not because humans are violent. Because debts become mathematically impossible to service. Dalio's data is clear: When internal inequality peaks AND external rivals emerge, conflicts become inevitable. The U.S. has both right now. Wealth inequality hasn't been this high since 1929. China's GDP grew 6-8% annually while we borrowed to maintain consumption. Dalio's advice for Stage 6 is simple: Sell debt. Buy gold. Not because gold produces anything. Because governments print money to escape debt traps. Gold has risen 3x since 2020. Exactly as the model predicted. But here's what actually matters for regular investors: You can't stop the Big Cycle. But you can position for it. Dalio's framework identifies five big forces that drive every transition: 1. Productivity growth 2. Debt cycles 3. Money supply 4. Wealth gaps 5. Geopolitical power shifts When all five align in the same direction, the cycle turns. Right now, all five are pointing toward Stage 7. Productivity growth is slowing. Debt service costs are rising faster than GDP. Money supply expanded 40% since 2020. Wealth concentration is at century highs. China is building parallel financial infrastructure. The math doesn't lie. So what does positioning actually look like? Dalio's research across 500 years shows three consistent patterns: Pattern 1: Fiat currencies lose value during Stage 6-7 transitions Every time. No exceptions. Governments print to escape debt traps. The dollar, pound, and euro all follow the same path. This is why gold and hard assets outperform during these periods. Pattern 2: Geographic diversification matters more than asset class diversification When one empire declines, another rises. Dutch to British. British to American. The cycle doesn't end. It relocates. Portfolios concentrated in declining empires get crushed. Pattern 3: Volatility spikes 3-5x during Stage 6 The 1930s saw 50%+ market swings. The 1970s stagflation created wild inflation volatility. 2008-2009 saw daily 5% moves. Stage 6 isn't calm. It's chaos punctuated by brief stability. Here's the data that should terrify you: U.S. debt-to-GDP: 120% (highest since WWII) Annual interest costs: approaching $1 trillion China's GDP growth: 6-8% while U.S. averages 2-3% Time between 1929 inequality peak and crash: 8 months Time since current inequality peak: We're in it now

Logan Weaver

1,070,791 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

$AMD| $META is using $GOOGL to negotiate 🧵 The Ironwood pod is 5.1–10x more expensive annually ($148.3 million ÷ $14.87–$29.04 million) and 5.1–10x more expensive monthly ($12.36 million ÷ $1.24–$2.42 million) than renting 15 MI450 racks for equivalent compute. The rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence infrastructure presents a complex interplay of technological innovation, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering among major players. Recent leaked information suggesting that Meta Platforms ($META) might work with Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) in 2027 has sparked speculation about its true intent. This leak is likely a strategic move by Meta to negotiate more favorable terms with AMD , leveraging the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market to optimize its substantial investment in AI infrastructure. By examining the key elements of this scenario Meta's investment strategy, the comparative advantages of AMD's MI450 and Google's Ironwood TPU, and the broader market context; we can discern the potential beneficiaries and the strategic implications of this information. Meta's aggressive pursuit of AI capabilities is underscored by its planned expenditure of $66-72 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, with expectations to escalate significantly in 2026. This investment is part of a broader strategy to build "titan clusters" like Prometheus, which are projected to reach 1 gigawatt of compute power by 2026. Such a scale of investment reflects Meta's recognition of the critical role that AI will play in its future growth, particularly in enhancing its social media platforms and developing new AI-driven applications. However, the financial burden of this infrastructure buildout necessitates a careful consideration of cost-effectiveness and scalability, which brings us to the leaked information about potential collaboration with Google's Ironwood TPU. Google's Ironwood TPU, introduced as the seventh-generation ASIC optimized for TensorFlow-based inference, represents a high-cost, cloud-locked solution priced at $445 million per pod (9,216 chips) over three years. This model, while offering significant performance gains and power efficiency, is tailored for pod-scale deployment and integrated with Google's cloud services, limiting flexibility and increasing costs for customers. In contrast, AMD's MI450 GPU, priced at $30,000–$40,000 per unit, provides a modular, open ROCm ecosystem that delivers comparable compute capacity at a fraction of the cost. Renting 15 MI450 racks could achieve similar 42+ exaFLOPS inference compute at 5–10x lower cost than renting a single Ironwood pod, underscoring AMD's competitive edge in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). The leaked information about Meta's potential TPU deployment in 2027, therefore, can be interpreted as a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive shift in strategy. By signaling interest in Google's solution, Meta may be attempting to pressure AMD into offering more favorable terms/prices for 5-10GW. This tactic aligns with Meta's broader goal to finance most of its AI spend internally while exploring partnerships that can reduce costs and enhance flexibility. The post's emphasis on MI450's TCO advantage and its partnerships with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta itself suggests that AMD is a critical component of Meta's AI infrastructure strategy. The threat of working with Google's TPU could prompt AMD to reassess its pricing, provide additional support, or offer incentives to retain Meta as a customer, thereby securing or expanding its market share. From a logical standpoint, Meta stands to benefit the most from this strategy. As a major buyer in a high-stakes market projected to surpass $1 trillion in annual spending by 2030, Meta's negotiating power is significant. The leaked information could lead to substantial cost savings on its $66-72 billion investment, enhancing its financial flexibility and allowing for further investment in AI capabilities. Moreover, this tactic reinforces Meta's position as a leader in the AI infrastructure race, potentially attracting more external financing for its data center projects and strengthening its competitive stance against other hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft. AMD could also benefit from this scenario. The negotiation pressure might lead to small short-term concessions, but it could also solidify long-term partnerships with Meta, ensuring continued demand for MI450 and other AI hardware solutions. Initially Meta's 42% allocation to AMD MI300X and its partnerships with Oracle, Dell, and HP indicates a deep integration of AMD's technology into Meta's infrastructure, which could be leveraged to maintain this relationship. For AMD, retaining Meta as a large key customer is crucial to capturing a larger share of the rapidly growing data center infrastructure market, driven by the insatiable demand for AI compute power. Google, on the other hand, faces a more limited benefit from this leaked information. While securing Meta as a customer would reinforce its position in the AI hardware market, the high cost and ecosystem lock-in of the Ironwood TPU might deter Meta from fully committing to this solution. The leaked information could prompt Google to reconsider its pricing or ecosystem strategy to remain competitive, but the immediate impact is likely to be minimal compared to the potential gains for Meta and AMD. Investors and market analysts also stand to benefit from this information, as it provides insights into the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market. Adjustments in portfolios based on anticipated shifts in market share and profitability could lead to opportunities for those who correctly anticipate outcomes. The negotiation dynamic might introduce volatility, but it also highlights the strategic importance of cost-effective solutions in the AI infrastructure space. Lastly, the leaked information about Meta potentially working with Google's TPU in 2027 is likely a strategic move to negotiate with AMD, leveraging the competitive landscape to optimize its AI infrastructure investment. Meta, as the primary negotiator, stands to gain the most by securing better terms from AMD, reducing costs, and enhancing its financial flexibility. AMD, while initially at risk, could benefit from retaining a key customer and solidifying its market position. Google faces limited immediate benefits but may need to adapt its strategy to remain competitive. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of technology, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering in the AI hardware market, where cost-effectiveness and scalability are paramount. As the data center infrastructure market continues to grow, the outcomes of such negotiations will shape the future of AI development and deployment.
1:12

$AMD| $META is using $GOOGL to negotiate 🧵 The Ironwood pod is 5.1–10x more expensive annually ($148.3 million ÷ $14.87–$29.04 million) and 5.1–10x more expensive monthly ($12.36 million ÷ $1.24–$2.42 million) than renting 15 MI450 racks for equivalent compute. The rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence infrastructure presents a complex interplay of technological innovation, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering among major players. Recent leaked information suggesting that Meta Platforms ($META) might work with Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) in 2027 has sparked speculation about its true intent. This leak is likely a strategic move by Meta to negotiate more favorable terms with AMD , leveraging the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market to optimize its substantial investment in AI infrastructure. By examining the key elements of this scenario Meta's investment strategy, the comparative advantages of AMD's MI450 and Google's Ironwood TPU, and the broader market context; we can discern the potential beneficiaries and the strategic implications of this information. Meta's aggressive pursuit of AI capabilities is underscored by its planned expenditure of $66-72 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, with expectations to escalate significantly in 2026. This investment is part of a broader strategy to build "titan clusters" like Prometheus, which are projected to reach 1 gigawatt of compute power by 2026. Such a scale of investment reflects Meta's recognition of the critical role that AI will play in its future growth, particularly in enhancing its social media platforms and developing new AI-driven applications. However, the financial burden of this infrastructure buildout necessitates a careful consideration of cost-effectiveness and scalability, which brings us to the leaked information about potential collaboration with Google's Ironwood TPU. Google's Ironwood TPU, introduced as the seventh-generation ASIC optimized for TensorFlow-based inference, represents a high-cost, cloud-locked solution priced at $445 million per pod (9,216 chips) over three years. This model, while offering significant performance gains and power efficiency, is tailored for pod-scale deployment and integrated with Google's cloud services, limiting flexibility and increasing costs for customers. In contrast, AMD's MI450 GPU, priced at $30,000–$40,000 per unit, provides a modular, open ROCm ecosystem that delivers comparable compute capacity at a fraction of the cost. Renting 15 MI450 racks could achieve similar 42+ exaFLOPS inference compute at 5–10x lower cost than renting a single Ironwood pod, underscoring AMD's competitive edge in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). The leaked information about Meta's potential TPU deployment in 2027, therefore, can be interpreted as a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive shift in strategy. By signaling interest in Google's solution, Meta may be attempting to pressure AMD into offering more favorable terms/prices for 5-10GW. This tactic aligns with Meta's broader goal to finance most of its AI spend internally while exploring partnerships that can reduce costs and enhance flexibility. The post's emphasis on MI450's TCO advantage and its partnerships with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta itself suggests that AMD is a critical component of Meta's AI infrastructure strategy. The threat of working with Google's TPU could prompt AMD to reassess its pricing, provide additional support, or offer incentives to retain Meta as a customer, thereby securing or expanding its market share. From a logical standpoint, Meta stands to benefit the most from this strategy. As a major buyer in a high-stakes market projected to surpass $1 trillion in annual spending by 2030, Meta's negotiating power is significant. The leaked information could lead to substantial cost savings on its $66-72 billion investment, enhancing its financial flexibility and allowing for further investment in AI capabilities. Moreover, this tactic reinforces Meta's position as a leader in the AI infrastructure race, potentially attracting more external financing for its data center projects and strengthening its competitive stance against other hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft. AMD could also benefit from this scenario. The negotiation pressure might lead to small short-term concessions, but it could also solidify long-term partnerships with Meta, ensuring continued demand for MI450 and other AI hardware solutions. Initially Meta's 42% allocation to AMD MI300X and its partnerships with Oracle, Dell, and HP indicates a deep integration of AMD's technology into Meta's infrastructure, which could be leveraged to maintain this relationship. For AMD, retaining Meta as a large key customer is crucial to capturing a larger share of the rapidly growing data center infrastructure market, driven by the insatiable demand for AI compute power. Google, on the other hand, faces a more limited benefit from this leaked information. While securing Meta as a customer would reinforce its position in the AI hardware market, the high cost and ecosystem lock-in of the Ironwood TPU might deter Meta from fully committing to this solution. The leaked information could prompt Google to reconsider its pricing or ecosystem strategy to remain competitive, but the immediate impact is likely to be minimal compared to the potential gains for Meta and AMD. Investors and market analysts also stand to benefit from this information, as it provides insights into the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market. Adjustments in portfolios based on anticipated shifts in market share and profitability could lead to opportunities for those who correctly anticipate outcomes. The negotiation dynamic might introduce volatility, but it also highlights the strategic importance of cost-effective solutions in the AI infrastructure space. Lastly, the leaked information about Meta potentially working with Google's TPU in 2027 is likely a strategic move to negotiate with AMD, leveraging the competitive landscape to optimize its AI infrastructure investment. Meta, as the primary negotiator, stands to gain the most by securing better terms from AMD, reducing costs, and enhancing its financial flexibility. AMD, while initially at risk, could benefit from retaining a key customer and solidifying its market position. Google faces limited immediate benefits but may need to adapt its strategy to remain competitive. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of technology, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering in the AI hardware market, where cost-effectiveness and scalability are paramount. As the data center infrastructure market continues to grow, the outcomes of such negotiations will shape the future of AI development and deployment.

Mike

182,048 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Larry Ellison borrowed $125 billion to bet everything on a single customer that LOSES $5 billion a year. American banks are already refusing to lend him another dollar. And now that single customer has started to slowly walk away. This is one of the biggest gambles in tech history - and it’s NOT looking good: Oracle has $124.7 billion in debt on its books right now. That's more than the GDP of 100+ countries. Their free cash flow over the last 12 months? Negative $13.18 billion. They are spending more money than they make. And they're doing it on PURPOSE. Every other hyperscaler funds their AI buildout with cash. Google has cash. Amazon has cash. Microsoft has cash. Oracle has IOUs. They raised $58 billion in debt in just two months. $38 billion for Texas and Wisconsin data centers. $20 billion for New Mexico. And they need another $100 billion on top of that. Even US banks are starting to say no. TD Cowen reported that multiple banks have pulled back from Oracle lending. Borrowing costs have roughly DOUBLED since September. They're now paying interest rates typically reserved for companies rated below investment grade. Barclays downgraded their debt to underweight and warned Oracle could run out of cash by November 2026. So what does Larry Ellison do? He FIRES 30,000 people. Oracle is planning layoffs affecting up to 18% of its entire workforce. The goal is to free up $8 to $10 billion in cash flow just to keep the lights on while they build data centers for ONE customer: OpenAI. Oracle's $553 billion backlog sounds incredible until you realize a massive chunk of it flows through a single relationship. If OpenAI sneezes, Oracle catches pneumonia. And OpenAI is already sneezing... Sam Altman DROPPED plans to expand the Stargate site in Abilene, Texas. And the reason is insane: Nvidia's chips are improving so fast that by the time Oracle finishes building the data center, the processors inside it will already be outdated. Oracle is building with Blackwell chips. But Nvidia's new Vera Rubin platform delivers 5x the inference performance at 10x lower cost per token. So Oracle is borrowing billions to build facilities that will house yesterday's technology before they even open. The world of bits moves faster than the world of atoms. And Oracle is trapped in between. But here's where it gets wild: The earnings call revealed something most people missed... Oracle now REQUIRES certain customers to buy their own GPUs upfront and hand them over. They call it the "bring your own chips" model. Translation: Oracle can't afford the hardware anymore. So they're asking customers to fund the construction of Oracle's OWN data centers. The stock is still down 23% this year even after the 12% earnings pop. Moody's rates Oracle just two notches above junk status. Lower than Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. And they have $248 billion in ADDITIONAL lease obligations that aren't even on the balance sheet yet. Larry Ellison is 81 years old and making the biggest bet in corporate history. He's trying to turn a legacy database company into a hyperscale AI cloud provider using other people's money. All while his only major customer is a startup that burns $5 billion a year and just had its expansion partner refuse to fund the next campus. The earnings beat was real. Revenue up 22%. Cloud infrastructure up 84%. But revenue growth funded by debt isn't growth. It's leverage. And leverage works both ways. If OpenAI stays loyal, if the Stargate buildout continues, if the debt markets keep lending, if Vera Rubin doesn't make their entire infrastructure obsolete overnight, then Larry Ellison pulled off the greatest corporate reinvention in history. But that's a lot of ifs for a company two notches above junk. Oracle is either the most undervalued AI play on the market or the most overleveraged house of cards since 2008. The next six months will tell us which one.
1:44

Larry Ellison borrowed $125 billion to bet everything on a single customer that LOSES $5 billion a year. American banks are already refusing to lend him another dollar. And now that single customer has started to slowly walk away. This is one of the biggest gambles in tech history - and it’s NOT looking good: Oracle has $124.7 billion in debt on its books right now. That's more than the GDP of 100+ countries. Their free cash flow over the last 12 months? Negative $13.18 billion. They are spending more money than they make. And they're doing it on PURPOSE. Every other hyperscaler funds their AI buildout with cash. Google has cash. Amazon has cash. Microsoft has cash. Oracle has IOUs. They raised $58 billion in debt in just two months. $38 billion for Texas and Wisconsin data centers. $20 billion for New Mexico. And they need another $100 billion on top of that. Even US banks are starting to say no. TD Cowen reported that multiple banks have pulled back from Oracle lending. Borrowing costs have roughly DOUBLED since September. They're now paying interest rates typically reserved for companies rated below investment grade. Barclays downgraded their debt to underweight and warned Oracle could run out of cash by November 2026. So what does Larry Ellison do? He FIRES 30,000 people. Oracle is planning layoffs affecting up to 18% of its entire workforce. The goal is to free up $8 to $10 billion in cash flow just to keep the lights on while they build data centers for ONE customer: OpenAI. Oracle's $553 billion backlog sounds incredible until you realize a massive chunk of it flows through a single relationship. If OpenAI sneezes, Oracle catches pneumonia. And OpenAI is already sneezing... Sam Altman DROPPED plans to expand the Stargate site in Abilene, Texas. And the reason is insane: Nvidia's chips are improving so fast that by the time Oracle finishes building the data center, the processors inside it will already be outdated. Oracle is building with Blackwell chips. But Nvidia's new Vera Rubin platform delivers 5x the inference performance at 10x lower cost per token. So Oracle is borrowing billions to build facilities that will house yesterday's technology before they even open. The world of bits moves faster than the world of atoms. And Oracle is trapped in between. But here's where it gets wild: The earnings call revealed something most people missed... Oracle now REQUIRES certain customers to buy their own GPUs upfront and hand them over. They call it the "bring your own chips" model. Translation: Oracle can't afford the hardware anymore. So they're asking customers to fund the construction of Oracle's OWN data centers. The stock is still down 23% this year even after the 12% earnings pop. Moody's rates Oracle just two notches above junk status. Lower than Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. And they have $248 billion in ADDITIONAL lease obligations that aren't even on the balance sheet yet. Larry Ellison is 81 years old and making the biggest bet in corporate history. He's trying to turn a legacy database company into a hyperscale AI cloud provider using other people's money. All while his only major customer is a startup that burns $5 billion a year and just had its expansion partner refuse to fund the next campus. The earnings beat was real. Revenue up 22%. Cloud infrastructure up 84%. But revenue growth funded by debt isn't growth. It's leverage. And leverage works both ways. If OpenAI stays loyal, if the Stargate buildout continues, if the debt markets keep lending, if Vera Rubin doesn't make their entire infrastructure obsolete overnight, then Larry Ellison pulled off the greatest corporate reinvention in history. But that's a lot of ifs for a company two notches above junk. Oracle is either the most undervalued AI play on the market or the most overleveraged house of cards since 2008. The next six months will tell us which one.

Ricardo

181,176 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Operation Epic Fury’s geopolitical ramifications has China between a rock and a hard place, with Iran being their oil vendor it leaves them on the sidelines with little recourse, the $1 million question is when the CCP gets desperate for the massive amounts of energy reserves they require is, what moves/options they actually have ? Much of the EU depends on Russia for their energy but China and Russia are next-door neighbors, I think we are witnessing a massive realignment in energy trade that may very well leave the EU out in the cold. ⏺️ Energy Security Vulnerabilities Exposed: The clip underscores China's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports (over 10 million barrels daily), making it susceptible to U.S.-influenced disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; this could lead to supply shortages, higher prices, and economic instability, prompting China to accelerate diversification efforts like the Belt and Road Initiative for alternative routes. ⏺️ Escalation of U.S.-China Rivalry: By framing U.S. actions against Iran as indirectly targeting China's industrial base, the narrative highlights a proxy dimension to great-power competition; this could intensify tensions, pushing China toward stronger alliances with Iran and Russia to counter U.S. naval dominance and secure energy corridors. ⏺️ Strategic Incentives for Military Buildup: The emphasis on U.S. "pressure without war" via naval control may accelerate China's naval modernization (e.g., expanding its blue-water fleet and anti-access/area denial capabilities) to challenge U.S. influence in key chokepoints, potentially leading to heightened militarization in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. ⏺️ Economic Leverage and Trade Impacts: Disruptions to Iranian oil (a key supplier) could raise global energy costs, affecting China's manufacturing exports and GDP growth; this might encourage Beijing to deepen domestic energy reforms, invest in renewables, or use economic tools like yuan-denominated oil trades to reduce dollar dependence and U.S. financial leverage. ⏺️ Diplomatic Realignments: The reel suggests U.S. strategies weaken rivals without direct conflict, which could drive China to bolster multilateral forums (e.g., SCO, BRICS) for collective resistance against U.S. unilateralism, while straining U.S.-China relations and complicating global issues like climate talks or non-proliferation efforts. ⏺️ Risk of Broader Instability: If U.S. pressures lead to Iranian instability or regional conflicts, China could face
2:49

Operation Epic Fury’s geopolitical ramifications has China between a rock and a hard place, with Iran being their oil vendor it leaves them on the sidelines with little recourse, the $1 million question is when the CCP gets desperate for the massive amounts of energy reserves they require is, what moves/options they actually have ? Much of the EU depends on Russia for their energy but China and Russia are next-door neighbors, I think we are witnessing a massive realignment in energy trade that may very well leave the EU out in the cold. ⏺️ Energy Security Vulnerabilities Exposed: The clip underscores China's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports (over 10 million barrels daily), making it susceptible to U.S.-influenced disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; this could lead to supply shortages, higher prices, and economic instability, prompting China to accelerate diversification efforts like the Belt and Road Initiative for alternative routes. ⏺️ Escalation of U.S.-China Rivalry: By framing U.S. actions against Iran as indirectly targeting China's industrial base, the narrative highlights a proxy dimension to great-power competition; this could intensify tensions, pushing China toward stronger alliances with Iran and Russia to counter U.S. naval dominance and secure energy corridors. ⏺️ Strategic Incentives for Military Buildup: The emphasis on U.S. "pressure without war" via naval control may accelerate China's naval modernization (e.g., expanding its blue-water fleet and anti-access/area denial capabilities) to challenge U.S. influence in key chokepoints, potentially leading to heightened militarization in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. ⏺️ Economic Leverage and Trade Impacts: Disruptions to Iranian oil (a key supplier) could raise global energy costs, affecting China's manufacturing exports and GDP growth; this might encourage Beijing to deepen domestic energy reforms, invest in renewables, or use economic tools like yuan-denominated oil trades to reduce dollar dependence and U.S. financial leverage. ⏺️ Diplomatic Realignments: The reel suggests U.S. strategies weaken rivals without direct conflict, which could drive China to bolster multilateral forums (e.g., SCO, BRICS) for collective resistance against U.S. unilateralism, while straining U.S.-China relations and complicating global issues like climate talks or non-proliferation efforts. ⏺️ Risk of Broader Instability: If U.S. pressures lead to Iranian instability or regional conflicts, China could face

MAGA X Times Daily News 🇺🇸

12,268 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Microsoft just banned its own engineers from using AI. The tool was literally costing MORE than the humans it was supposed to replace. They lied to you about AI adoption and now the whole narrative is blowing up: Microsoft gave thousands of engineers access to Claude Code six months ago and encouraged them to use it. Engineers loved it and adoption exploded. But then the invoices arrived. Token-based pricing means every query, every code review, every debugging session costs money. At scale across 100,000 engineers, the numbers became so large that Microsoft issued an internal order to cancel nearly all Claude Code licenses by end of June and force everyone onto their own cheaper tool instead. The company that invested $5 billion in Anthropic just told its own people to stop using Anthropic's product because it costs too much. Uber's story is even worse... Their CTO Praveen Neppalli Naga told The Information that the budget he planned for the full year was "blown away already" by April. Uber had rolled out Claude Code in December 2025. By March, 84% of their 5,000 engineers were using it with 70% of all committed code coming from AI systems. Heavy users were burning $500 to $2,000 per month each. Naga himself spent $1,200 in a single two-hour demo session. The company had even built internal leaderboards ranking engineers by how much AI they used. They literally gamified the spending and then ran out of money. Now look at what Nvidia's own VP of applied deep learning Bryan Catanzaro said to Axios last month. Direct quote: "For my team, the cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees." This is a VP at the company that SELLS the chips saying that using AI is more expensive than paying humans. Think about what this means for the entire AI narrative. Every CEO on every earnings call for the past two years has said the same thing: AI will make us more efficient, reduce headcount, and cut costs. The stock market rewarded every company that said it. Fired workers, stock goes up. Announced AI adoption, stock goes up. But the actual companies deploying AI at scale are discovering the math doesn't work. The MORE employees use AI, the HIGHER the bill. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 24x increase in token consumption by 2030 as companies adopt AI agents. Gartner just published a report showing that even though individual token prices will drop 90% by 2030, total enterprise AI costs will go UP because agents consume exponentially more tokens per task than basic tools. Meta built an internal dashboard called "Claudeonomics" to track which employees use the most AI. Amazon started pushing engineers to "tokenmaxx," their internal term for consuming as many AI tokens as possible. Both companies are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure this year alone. And Microsoft, the company that bet its entire future on AI, just told 100,000 engineers to stop using the tool they liked best because the per-token bills got out of control. The companies building AI are telling investors it saves money. The companies using AI are finding out it costs more than the humans it was supposed to replace. And even the company that makes the chips just admitted it through its own VP. This is the gap nobody on Wall Street is pricing in. $725 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year across Big Tech. And the first companies to actually deploy these tools at scale are already pulling back because the economics don't work. What do you think?
1:33

Microsoft just banned its own engineers from using AI. The tool was literally costing MORE than the humans it was supposed to replace. They lied to you about AI adoption and now the whole narrative is blowing up: Microsoft gave thousands of engineers access to Claude Code six months ago and encouraged them to use it. Engineers loved it and adoption exploded. But then the invoices arrived. Token-based pricing means every query, every code review, every debugging session costs money. At scale across 100,000 engineers, the numbers became so large that Microsoft issued an internal order to cancel nearly all Claude Code licenses by end of June and force everyone onto their own cheaper tool instead. The company that invested $5 billion in Anthropic just told its own people to stop using Anthropic's product because it costs too much. Uber's story is even worse... Their CTO Praveen Neppalli Naga told The Information that the budget he planned for the full year was "blown away already" by April. Uber had rolled out Claude Code in December 2025. By March, 84% of their 5,000 engineers were using it with 70% of all committed code coming from AI systems. Heavy users were burning $500 to $2,000 per month each. Naga himself spent $1,200 in a single two-hour demo session. The company had even built internal leaderboards ranking engineers by how much AI they used. They literally gamified the spending and then ran out of money. Now look at what Nvidia's own VP of applied deep learning Bryan Catanzaro said to Axios last month. Direct quote: "For my team, the cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees." This is a VP at the company that SELLS the chips saying that using AI is more expensive than paying humans. Think about what this means for the entire AI narrative. Every CEO on every earnings call for the past two years has said the same thing: AI will make us more efficient, reduce headcount, and cut costs. The stock market rewarded every company that said it. Fired workers, stock goes up. Announced AI adoption, stock goes up. But the actual companies deploying AI at scale are discovering the math doesn't work. The MORE employees use AI, the HIGHER the bill. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 24x increase in token consumption by 2030 as companies adopt AI agents. Gartner just published a report showing that even though individual token prices will drop 90% by 2030, total enterprise AI costs will go UP because agents consume exponentially more tokens per task than basic tools. Meta built an internal dashboard called "Claudeonomics" to track which employees use the most AI. Amazon started pushing engineers to "tokenmaxx," their internal term for consuming as many AI tokens as possible. Both companies are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure this year alone. And Microsoft, the company that bet its entire future on AI, just told 100,000 engineers to stop using the tool they liked best because the per-token bills got out of control. The companies building AI are telling investors it saves money. The companies using AI are finding out it costs more than the humans it was supposed to replace. And even the company that makes the chips just admitted it through its own VP. This is the gap nobody on Wall Street is pricing in. $725 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year across Big Tech. And the first companies to actually deploy these tools at scale are already pulling back because the economics don't work. What do you think?

Ricardo

2,959,598 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The Barrel Shortage Is Only The Beginning Markets are treating Hormuz like a temporary oil spike. That is the mistake. The real danger is not only the missing barrels. It is the lag between the first disruption and when the full effects are finally felt across global economies. Goldman estimates Gulf crude production is down 14.5 mb/d, or 57% below prewar levels. Only 11.0 mb/d is still producing out of a 25.4 mb/d baseline. That means roughly 435 million barrels are missing every month before mitigation. If the shortfall math is right, the cumulative gap reaches about 1.631 billion barrels even if the conflict stopped on April 24. Reopening Is Not Normalization Reopening the Strait does not instantly refill inventories, reposition tankers, normalize insurance, repair infrastructure, rebuild workover capacity, or bring shut in wells back to prior flow rates. External forecasts assume only 70% of lost Gulf production is recovered after 3 months and 88% after 6 months. On a 14.5 mb/d loss, that still leaves 4.35 mb/d missing after 3 months and 1.74 mb/d missing after 6 months. The Transmission Takes Time Hormuz normally moves about 20 mb/d of crude and refined products, roughly 25% of world seaborne oil trade. Bypass capacity is only 3.5 to 5.5 mb/d, covering just 24% to 38% of the current curtailment. The remaining 9 to 11 mb/d clears through higher prices, inventory draws, refinery cuts, demand destruction, rationing, bankruptcies, or state intervention. First crude moves. Then diesel and freight. Then food, fertilizer, chemicals, packaging, plastics, utilities, insurance, and construction materials. Then household cash flow weakens. Then small businesses fail. Then CRE gets repriced. Then banks tighten. Then unemployment rises. It Hits An Economy Already Cracking The U.S. may not import much Gulf crude directly, but it still imports the global oil price through diesel, freight, fertilizer, plastics, insurance, utilities, and food distribution. Households were already stretched. Delinquencies are near 4.8%. Credit card 90 day delinquencies are near 2.57%. Auto serious delinquencies are around 1.54% to 1.61%. Student loan delinquencies are near 25%. A $1 gasoline increase costs a commuter household using 1,000 to 1,500 gallons a year an extra $1,000 to $1,500. That money no longer goes to restaurants, retail, travel, home improvement, or debt payments. Small business was already cracking too. Subchapter V filings are up 67%. Commercial Chapter 11 filings are up 37%. Higher fuel, freight, utilities, packaging, insurance, and inventory costs turn margin pressure into insolvency. CRE is the second fuse. Office vacancy is around 17.6% to 17.8%, with some major tech hubs above 30%. Roughly $875B of commercial mortgage debt matures in 2026. Borrowers who financed at 3.5% now face 6.5% to 7.5%. How Inflation Turns Deflationary The first phase looks inflationary because fuel, food, freight, insurance, and utilities rise. The second phase is deflationary because cash flow collapses. Households spend more on necessities and less everywhere else. Businesses pay more for inputs while customers pull back. Margins compress. Defaults rise. Banks tighten. Credit card issuers cut limits. CRE lenders refuse to roll bad debt. Private credit pulls back. Asset sales begin. That is how a price shock becomes a credit contraction. Expensive food, fuel, and insurance can exist alongside falling asset prices. That is not healthy inflation. That is insolvency pressure. My Take This shock does not create the recession mechanism. The mechanism already exists. It compresses the timeline. A 3 to 6 month disruption hits consumers and small businesses. A 6 to 12 month disruption hits CRE, banks, and credit. A 12 to 24 month disruption forces structural changes in trade routes, energy security, dollar liquidity, defense planning, and politics. People will see the oil spike first. The real danger arrives later after the buffers are gone.
3:27

The Barrel Shortage Is Only The Beginning Markets are treating Hormuz like a temporary oil spike. That is the mistake. The real danger is not only the missing barrels. It is the lag between the first disruption and when the full effects are finally felt across global economies. Goldman estimates Gulf crude production is down 14.5 mb/d, or 57% below prewar levels. Only 11.0 mb/d is still producing out of a 25.4 mb/d baseline. That means roughly 435 million barrels are missing every month before mitigation. If the shortfall math is right, the cumulative gap reaches about 1.631 billion barrels even if the conflict stopped on April 24. Reopening Is Not Normalization Reopening the Strait does not instantly refill inventories, reposition tankers, normalize insurance, repair infrastructure, rebuild workover capacity, or bring shut in wells back to prior flow rates. External forecasts assume only 70% of lost Gulf production is recovered after 3 months and 88% after 6 months. On a 14.5 mb/d loss, that still leaves 4.35 mb/d missing after 3 months and 1.74 mb/d missing after 6 months. The Transmission Takes Time Hormuz normally moves about 20 mb/d of crude and refined products, roughly 25% of world seaborne oil trade. Bypass capacity is only 3.5 to 5.5 mb/d, covering just 24% to 38% of the current curtailment. The remaining 9 to 11 mb/d clears through higher prices, inventory draws, refinery cuts, demand destruction, rationing, bankruptcies, or state intervention. First crude moves. Then diesel and freight. Then food, fertilizer, chemicals, packaging, plastics, utilities, insurance, and construction materials. Then household cash flow weakens. Then small businesses fail. Then CRE gets repriced. Then banks tighten. Then unemployment rises. It Hits An Economy Already Cracking The U.S. may not import much Gulf crude directly, but it still imports the global oil price through diesel, freight, fertilizer, plastics, insurance, utilities, and food distribution. Households were already stretched. Delinquencies are near 4.8%. Credit card 90 day delinquencies are near 2.57%. Auto serious delinquencies are around 1.54% to 1.61%. Student loan delinquencies are near 25%. A $1 gasoline increase costs a commuter household using 1,000 to 1,500 gallons a year an extra $1,000 to $1,500. That money no longer goes to restaurants, retail, travel, home improvement, or debt payments. Small business was already cracking too. Subchapter V filings are up 67%. Commercial Chapter 11 filings are up 37%. Higher fuel, freight, utilities, packaging, insurance, and inventory costs turn margin pressure into insolvency. CRE is the second fuse. Office vacancy is around 17.6% to 17.8%, with some major tech hubs above 30%. Roughly $875B of commercial mortgage debt matures in 2026. Borrowers who financed at 3.5% now face 6.5% to 7.5%. How Inflation Turns Deflationary The first phase looks inflationary because fuel, food, freight, insurance, and utilities rise. The second phase is deflationary because cash flow collapses. Households spend more on necessities and less everywhere else. Businesses pay more for inputs while customers pull back. Margins compress. Defaults rise. Banks tighten. Credit card issuers cut limits. CRE lenders refuse to roll bad debt. Private credit pulls back. Asset sales begin. That is how a price shock becomes a credit contraction. Expensive food, fuel, and insurance can exist alongside falling asset prices. That is not healthy inflation. That is insolvency pressure. My Take This shock does not create the recession mechanism. The mechanism already exists. It compresses the timeline. A 3 to 6 month disruption hits consumers and small businesses. A 6 to 12 month disruption hits CRE, banks, and credit. A 12 to 24 month disruption forces structural changes in trade routes, energy security, dollar liquidity, defense planning, and politics. People will see the oil spike first. The real danger arrives later after the buffers are gone.

EndGame Macro

52,446 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Why I’m All In on $CRO | March 25, 2026 – Remember This 🏆 Conviction isn’t built on hype — it’s built on execution, vision, and timing. After watching the AMA with Kris | Crypto.com, CEO of Crypto.com, it’s never been clearer: $CRO isn’t just positioned to win. It’s positioned to lead/take over. Here’s why I believe $CRO will be a top 5 asset/chain: 1. $CRO Enters the ETF Era: It’s official — Crypto.com is powering Truth Social’s ETF infrastructure (backed by United States President Donald J. Trump ) Custody, liquidity, and staking baskets with $CRO included.The goal? -> $CRO in every major ETF. This is how real capital enters. 2. “Make $CRO Great Again” Isn’t a Slogan — It’s a Strategy: The $CRO Mint = A Reset for Greatness In 2021, $CRO was burned defensively. In 2024, it’s being minted strategically. Billions are now being reinvested into Kronos to: •Make it a top 5 chain •Fund builders & world-class teams •Onboard institutional capital •Boost token utility and velocity “Not making big moves is accepting mediocrity. This is a reset.” – Kris | Crypto.com 3. 140M Users and Growing Fast: With 150M expected in Q2 and a long-term goal of 250M, @cryprocom is scaling like no one else — all while being profitable with a strong balance sheet. $1.5B revenue. $300M+ EBITDA. It’s the fastest-executing crypto business in the world. 4. U.S. Political Tailwinds Are Here: Kris | Crypto.com has been in the White House, Mar-a-Lago, and the Oval Office. The Trump-era momentum is real — and policy is shifting. Two major bills (Stablecoins & Market Structure) are already in motion. The war on crypto is over. The U.S. is going pro-crypto. And Crypto.com is at the table. 6. Institutional Capital Is Lining Up: $CRO isn’t just for retail anymore. It’s being positioned for sovereign wealth, strategic reserves, and ETF flows. ETF issuers = not natural sellers. These are demand engines. – Kris | Crypto.com 7. The Roadmap: Precision-Engineered for Domination: Kris | Crypto.com laid out a bold, multi-front expansion plan that touches every corner of finance and Web3: •U.S. Equities: TradFi meets DeFi — all in one app •Prediction Markets: Sports, politics, and more — on-chain and first-to-market •Global Transfers: Instant, near-zero fee money movement — no middlemen •DeFi + Wallet Upgrades: Powerfully simple, non-custodial, and ready for mass adoption •TradFi Integrations: Banking, brokerage, and payment layers — unified •AI Infrastructure: Future-proofing the stack for what’s coming next •Exchange Overhaul: Full UX redesign, deeper liquidity, pro-level tools “We want to be the fastest shipping company in the industry.” – Kris | Crypto.com This isn’t just a roadmap — it’s a master plan to absorb market share across every vertical 8. The Next-Gen Chain = #Cronos New leadership (Mirko) is focused solely on Attracting unicorn-tier founders, Incentivizing game-changing apps, Positioning $CRO as the native gas “We want world-class teams building billion-dollar projects on Cronos , This is the same playbook $ETH ran in 2017 and $SOL ran in 2021 — but with deeper infrastructure and funding”- Kris | Crypto.com 9. Ready, What’s Next - #Cryptocom •500+ new hires incoming •Separate P&L on each product •Every unit treated like a startup •Unified mission across Web3, DeFi, TradFi, and real-world utility “We’re building a company that thrives in any market condition.” – Kris | Crypto.com And the line that sealed it: “Hold me accountable by March 25, 2026.” – Kris | Crypto.com You can argue hype. You can argue narratives. But you can’t argue results. Crypto.com is quietly building the rails of the next financial system — and $CRO will power it. #CRO #CryptoCom #Kronos #Web3 #DeFi #ETFs #BullRun2025 #TrumpCrypto #CryptoNews #MakeCROGreatAgain #Marc
1:04

Why I’m All In on $CRO | March 25, 2026 – Remember This 🏆 Conviction isn’t built on hype — it’s built on execution, vision, and timing. After watching the AMA with Kris | Crypto.com, CEO of Crypto.com, it’s never been clearer: $CRO isn’t just positioned to win. It’s positioned to lead/take over. Here’s why I believe $CRO will be a top 5 asset/chain: 1. $CRO Enters the ETF Era: It’s official — Crypto.com is powering Truth Social’s ETF infrastructure (backed by United States President Donald J. Trump ) Custody, liquidity, and staking baskets with $CRO included.The goal? -> $CRO in every major ETF. This is how real capital enters. 2. “Make $CRO Great Again” Isn’t a Slogan — It’s a Strategy: The $CRO Mint = A Reset for Greatness In 2021, $CRO was burned defensively. In 2024, it’s being minted strategically. Billions are now being reinvested into Kronos to: •Make it a top 5 chain •Fund builders & world-class teams •Onboard institutional capital •Boost token utility and velocity “Not making big moves is accepting mediocrity. This is a reset.” – Kris | Crypto.com 3. 140M Users and Growing Fast: With 150M expected in Q2 and a long-term goal of 250M, @cryprocom is scaling like no one else — all while being profitable with a strong balance sheet. $1.5B revenue. $300M+ EBITDA. It’s the fastest-executing crypto business in the world. 4. U.S. Political Tailwinds Are Here: Kris | Crypto.com has been in the White House, Mar-a-Lago, and the Oval Office. The Trump-era momentum is real — and policy is shifting. Two major bills (Stablecoins & Market Structure) are already in motion. The war on crypto is over. The U.S. is going pro-crypto. And Crypto.com is at the table. 6. Institutional Capital Is Lining Up: $CRO isn’t just for retail anymore. It’s being positioned for sovereign wealth, strategic reserves, and ETF flows. ETF issuers = not natural sellers. These are demand engines. – Kris | Crypto.com 7. The Roadmap: Precision-Engineered for Domination: Kris | Crypto.com laid out a bold, multi-front expansion plan that touches every corner of finance and Web3: •U.S. Equities: TradFi meets DeFi — all in one app •Prediction Markets: Sports, politics, and more — on-chain and first-to-market •Global Transfers: Instant, near-zero fee money movement — no middlemen •DeFi + Wallet Upgrades: Powerfully simple, non-custodial, and ready for mass adoption •TradFi Integrations: Banking, brokerage, and payment layers — unified •AI Infrastructure: Future-proofing the stack for what’s coming next •Exchange Overhaul: Full UX redesign, deeper liquidity, pro-level tools “We want to be the fastest shipping company in the industry.” – Kris | Crypto.com This isn’t just a roadmap — it’s a master plan to absorb market share across every vertical 8. The Next-Gen Chain = #Cronos New leadership (Mirko) is focused solely on Attracting unicorn-tier founders, Incentivizing game-changing apps, Positioning $CRO as the native gas “We want world-class teams building billion-dollar projects on Cronos , This is the same playbook $ETH ran in 2017 and $SOL ran in 2021 — but with deeper infrastructure and funding”- Kris | Crypto.com 9. Ready, What’s Next - #Cryptocom •500+ new hires incoming •Separate P&L on each product •Every unit treated like a startup •Unified mission across Web3, DeFi, TradFi, and real-world utility “We’re building a company that thrives in any market condition.” – Kris | Crypto.com And the line that sealed it: “Hold me accountable by March 25, 2026.” – Kris | Crypto.com You can argue hype. You can argue narratives. But you can’t argue results. Crypto.com is quietly building the rails of the next financial system — and $CRO will power it. #CRO #CryptoCom #Kronos #Web3 #DeFi #ETFs #BullRun2025 #TrumpCrypto #CryptoNews #MakeCROGreatAgain #Marc

Crypto West

20,387 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Jeffery Epstein vs Roaring Kitty! What would give Steven Cohen, Loop Capital, Highbridge Capital, or any of the other Dumb Stormtroopers the confidence to short GameStop way more than 100%? Epstein had the whole financial system from end-to-end compromised, from Obama and his Loop capital to Goldman Sach's Partner, Obama White House council, and FINRA Board of Governors Kathryn Ruemmler. Why does Ryan Cohen wear a bulletproof vest and what did he mean when he said "children must be protected at all costs?" How do you launder trillions of dollars around the world for the drug and human trafficking trade? and Why did Epstein make all his money as a tax consultant for primarily 2 clients, Les Wexner and Leon Black? You and me, mere peasants are held to different rules, for example only being able to write off $3500 of losses through failed investments, but what about the Harvard Endowment? Here is how illicit money moves around the world: Step 1) Donate money to Harvard and get a tax deduction Step 2) Harvard buys a stock and runs the price up one day. Step 3) The trafficker then shorts the top, and now has tax free money they can use. There are also just ways that Epstein's clients could all make tax-free money, and that is picking a public company to short in the ground, and coordinate to make it go bankrupt. This scheme became very obvious because it got so big and shameless as main stream media repeatedly kept jumping the shark. People noticed, and here we are today with Ryan Cohen as CEO and GameStop as the most healthy company in the stock market. You can see how scared the Dumb Stormtroopers are because they are threatening violence like Jim Cramer did recently on CNBC. Mainstream media lost much of its funding when USAID was cut, and they are being sued for lying. Democrat and deep state hitman like the Tren de Agua gang are being thrown in jail in El Salvador. The financial system is being updated with blockchain accountability. It looks like the plan is going according to plan!🚀
16:12

Jeffery Epstein vs Roaring Kitty! What would give Steven Cohen, Loop Capital, Highbridge Capital, or any of the other Dumb Stormtroopers the confidence to short GameStop way more than 100%? Epstein had the whole financial system from end-to-end compromised, from Obama and his Loop capital to Goldman Sach's Partner, Obama White House council, and FINRA Board of Governors Kathryn Ruemmler. Why does Ryan Cohen wear a bulletproof vest and what did he mean when he said "children must be protected at all costs?" How do you launder trillions of dollars around the world for the drug and human trafficking trade? and Why did Epstein make all his money as a tax consultant for primarily 2 clients, Les Wexner and Leon Black? You and me, mere peasants are held to different rules, for example only being able to write off $3500 of losses through failed investments, but what about the Harvard Endowment? Here is how illicit money moves around the world: Step 1) Donate money to Harvard and get a tax deduction Step 2) Harvard buys a stock and runs the price up one day. Step 3) The trafficker then shorts the top, and now has tax free money they can use. There are also just ways that Epstein's clients could all make tax-free money, and that is picking a public company to short in the ground, and coordinate to make it go bankrupt. This scheme became very obvious because it got so big and shameless as main stream media repeatedly kept jumping the shark. People noticed, and here we are today with Ryan Cohen as CEO and GameStop as the most healthy company in the stock market. You can see how scared the Dumb Stormtroopers are because they are threatening violence like Jim Cramer did recently on CNBC. Mainstream media lost much of its funding when USAID was cut, and they are being sued for lying. Democrat and deep state hitman like the Tren de Agua gang are being thrown in jail in El Salvador. The financial system is being updated with blockchain accountability. It looks like the plan is going according to plan!🚀

Michael A.M.E.

167,567 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce