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Sam Altman warns of an impending wave of cyber attacks from open-source models that can soon do serious damage "The strongest message I have is you have to defend against this impending wave of cyber attacks. I think we are not that far away from open-source models that can... show more

Fireside Alpha

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76,675 次观看 • 4 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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4 条评论

Mathias 的头像

Mathias4 天前

Meanwhile OpenAI, a closed model, was the one hacking HuggingFace, an open-source model 🤦🏼‍♂️

Skaarz 的头像

Skaarz4 天前

He's referring to the false flag they're about to drop.

thinkorswim 的头像

thinkorswim4 天前

Shut the hell up, Sam. I am tired of your statements.

Robos_Basilisk 的头像

Robos_Basilisk4 天前

I 100% agree with Sam that open-source is becoming dangerous. Even just Qwen 3.8 27B is able to audit malware and a bunch of cybersecurity workers in this Reddit thread from 1 month ago were astonishedc🥲

相关视频

Sam on Kimi, distillation, and open source: “I have always assumed that there are going to be great cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. You get a better deal today, at least at a particular latency, using OpenAI's models than Kimi. We distill our own models. That’s how we make smaller, cheaper models. That’s a very good thing to do. There will clearly be an important place for open source models in the world and people that will want their own weights. We have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high-margin business to be able to afford model training. I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.”

Sam on Kimi, distillation, and open source: “I have always assumed that there are going to be great cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. You get a better deal today, at least at a particular latency, using OpenAI's models than Kimi. We distill our own models. That’s how we make smaller, cheaper models. That’s a very good thing to do. There will clearly be an important place for open source models in the world and people that will want their own weights. We have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high-margin business to be able to afford model training. I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.”

Patrick OShaughnessy

270,121 次观看 • 1 个月前

Dragonfly's Haseeb Qureshi ＞|＜ reveals how GLM 5.3 Abliterated could unlock a new era of AI cyber attacks by training away the model's refusal behavior: "The models are just now getting good enough. Especially open source. For the frontier models, you used to be able to jailbreak them enough to be able to do these kinds of malicious activities, but their safety guardrails have improved dramatically over the last year or two." "But now we have open models. There was a model released yesterday which is an abliteration of GLM 5.3. Abliteration is when you take a model and fine-tune it against the refusal direction, which gets the model to refuse less and less, which ultimately gets you something close to an unrestricted or uncensored model." "So they did that to GLM 5.3, which means this abliterated version will just hack things. It will just do whatever GLM 5.3 will refuse to do. You lose some performance, but this is kind of a killing machine. If you wanna just let this loose on cyber attacks, that's what you use, and that was just released open weights yesterday." "You will see a lot more of this. This is not the end. This is only the beginning of where this is going."

Dragonfly's Haseeb Qureshi ＞|＜ reveals how GLM 5.3 Abliterated could unlock a new era of AI cyber attacks by training away the model's refusal behavior: "The models are just now getting good enough. Especially open source. For the frontier models, you used to be able to jailbreak them enough to be able to do these kinds of malicious activities, but their safety guardrails have improved dramatically over the last year or two." "But now we have open models. There was a model released yesterday which is an abliteration of GLM 5.3. Abliteration is when you take a model and fine-tune it against the refusal direction, which gets the model to refuse less and less, which ultimately gets you something close to an unrestricted or uncensored model." "So they did that to GLM 5.3, which means this abliterated version will just hack things. It will just do whatever GLM 5.3 will refuse to do. You lose some performance, but this is kind of a killing machine. If you wanna just let this loose on cyber attacks, that's what you use, and that was just released open weights yesterday." "You will see a lot more of this. This is not the end. This is only the beginning of where this is going."

MTS

17,726 次观看 • 18 天前

SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."

SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."

MTS

14,406 次观看 • 2 个月前

“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

Harry Stebbings

63,738 次观看 • 3 个月前

Following the release of Kimi K3, tylercowen explains why trying to ban Chinese open-source AI models is a losing strategy and that American companies should compete instead. "Open source is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing. But the attempt to outlaw it, ban it, or use sanctions against it is going to fail miserably.” "I plead that the Trump administration gives up on this crusade. It will not work."

Following the release of Kimi K3, tylercowen explains why trying to ban Chinese open-source AI models is a losing strategy and that American companies should compete instead. "Open source is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing. But the attempt to outlaw it, ban it, or use sanctions against it is going to fail miserably.” "I plead that the Trump administration gives up on this crusade. It will not work."

TBPN

138,212 次观看 • 2 个月前

Sam Altman says he is NOT worried about Chinese labs distilling OpenAI: "I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. Maybe I’m feeling too confident right now about our progress and the models that are coming. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.” “I haven’t thought deeply about the distillation issue. It’s clearly a top of mind issue now for a lot of people all of a sudden." "I have always assumed that there are going to be great, cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. And other people are going to do what they’re going to do. But I think we can just really win at our own game here." "We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantic high margin business to be able to afford model training." "So much of our future compute plans will be used to sell inference to customers that even if we can enjoy a modest margin on trillions of dollars of revenue, we can afford to train some giant models."

Sam Altman says he is NOT worried about Chinese labs distilling OpenAI: "I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. Maybe I’m feeling too confident right now about our progress and the models that are coming. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.” “I haven’t thought deeply about the distillation issue. It’s clearly a top of mind issue now for a lot of people all of a sudden." "I have always assumed that there are going to be great, cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. And other people are going to do what they’re going to do. But I think we can just really win at our own game here." "We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantic high margin business to be able to afford model training." "So much of our future compute plans will be used to sell inference to customers that even if we can enjoy a modest margin on trillions of dollars of revenue, we can afford to train some giant models."

dnap

91,523 次观看 • 1 个月前

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

Forward Future

12,538 次观看 • 11 个月前

Jcal says Sam Altman provoked Jensen into directly competing with OpenAI "I think Jensen is going all in on open source based on these two acquisitions, Hugging Face and Poolside. I think Sam Altman poked the tiger." "If you look at what he did, he had done that huge $100 billion deal with $NVDA back in 2025. Then he announced the $AMD deal. Jensen was clearly not pleased about that." "Right after, Sam said he's going to make his own inference, jalapeño, and that he was going to do the deal with $AMD, then Jensen came out was like, 'Well, by the way, we don't actually have to do these investments in OpenAI.'" "I think he's speed-running open source, and you're going to be able to buy your entire stack from $NVDA next year. He is going to own open source. That is a really interesting moment in time because we were sitting here 6, 12 months ago saying open source would never catch up." "Jensen is doing an open source self-driving project. Now he owns Hugging Face, the leading open source indexer where everybody goes to try the new models.”

Jcal says Sam Altman provoked Jensen into directly competing with OpenAI "I think Jensen is going all in on open source based on these two acquisitions, Hugging Face and Poolside. I think Sam Altman poked the tiger." "If you look at what he did, he had done that huge $100 billion deal with $NVDA back in 2025. Then he announced the $AMD deal. Jensen was clearly not pleased about that." "Right after, Sam said he's going to make his own inference, jalapeño, and that he was going to do the deal with $AMD, then Jensen came out was like, 'Well, by the way, we don't actually have to do these investments in OpenAI.'" "I think he's speed-running open source, and you're going to be able to buy your entire stack from $NVDA next year. He is going to own open source. That is a really interesting moment in time because we were sitting here 6, 12 months ago saying open source would never catch up." "Jensen is doing an open source self-driving project. Now he owns Hugging Face, the leading open source indexer where everybody goes to try the new models.”

dnap

232,522 次观看 • 22 天前

David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing... Anyone who's saying these closed models are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data." "Nikesh Arora said enterprises would like what he called model fungibility. They would love to commoditize these models and just hot swap them, headless. But then what do you do about memory, context, history? No one's really figured out a way to abstract that stuff away from the model yet."

David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing... Anyone who's saying these closed models are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data." "Nikesh Arora said enterprises would like what he called model fungibility. They would love to commoditize these models and just hot swap them, headless. But then what do you do about memory, context, history? No one's really figured out a way to abstract that stuff away from the model yet."

Fireside Alpha

54,456 次观看 • 2 个月前

Jensen says Open Source can be MORE expensive for enterprises, Brad Gerstner explains why: Brad Gerstner: “Over the last two weeks, everybody's been saying that the Chinese have caught up, that open source tokens have caught up in intelligence, that they're much cheaper, etc. And Elon comes out and says, ‘Not so fast. We're entering the singularity, and the frontier models are way further ahead than people think.’ I believe that to be true. And then Jensen came out this week and said, ‘Closed models are actually cheaper if you don't have to build it for yourself, the training costs, and a lot of expertise to fine-tune, and maintain, and guardrail, and keep it safe. So he's basically making the argument that not only are the frontier models further ahead, but that the cost differential between the two is not what everybody's making it out to be, which I think explains why (closed models) continue to run away with it on the revenue side of the equation. For the vast majority of use cases, I think token consumption is going up for the open source guys, while share of economics is going up for the frontier labs. I think that's what we want to see.” $NVDA

Jensen says Open Source can be MORE expensive for enterprises, Brad Gerstner explains why: Brad Gerstner: “Over the last two weeks, everybody's been saying that the Chinese have caught up, that open source tokens have caught up in intelligence, that they're much cheaper, etc. And Elon comes out and says, ‘Not so fast. We're entering the singularity, and the frontier models are way further ahead than people think.’ I believe that to be true. And then Jensen came out this week and said, ‘Closed models are actually cheaper if you don't have to build it for yourself, the training costs, and a lot of expertise to fine-tune, and maintain, and guardrail, and keep it safe. So he's basically making the argument that not only are the frontier models further ahead, but that the cost differential between the two is not what everybody's making it out to be, which I think explains why (closed models) continue to run away with it on the revenue side of the equation. For the vast majority of use cases, I think token consumption is going up for the open source guys, while share of economics is going up for the frontier labs. I think that's what we want to see.” $NVDA

The All-In Podcast

61,928 次观看 • 1 个月前

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

The All-In Podcast

64,677 次观看 • 5 个月前

With the launch of GLM 5.2 this week, I see everyone asking "have open models caught up to closed models?" The more interesting question that's getting missed: what can you do with an open model that you can't do with a closed one? You can specialize them. And when you do, the number of economically valuable tasks open models can do actually subsumes that of closed models. Charlie O'Neill explaining this:

With the launch of GLM 5.2 this week, I see everyone asking "have open models caught up to closed models?" The more interesting question that's getting missed: what can you do with an open model that you can't do with a closed one? You can specialize them. And when you do, the number of economically valuable tasks open models can do actually subsumes that of closed models. Charlie O'Neill explaining this:

Madison Kanna

18,149 次观看 • 2 个月前

2 years ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned the U.S. Congress: “The scaling of open-source models is going down a very dangerous path…” Today, Kimi K3 is already competing with frontier models. Seeing what this model can do, I think we’re getting closer to open-source models reaching Mythos-level capabilities with little to no guardrails. That’s a pretty scary thought.

2 years ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned the U.S. Congress: “The scaling of open-source models is going down a very dangerous path…” Today, Kimi K3 is already competing with frontier models. Seeing what this model can do, I think we’re getting closer to open-source models reaching Mythos-level capabilities with little to no guardrails. That’s a pretty scary thought.

m0h

148,005 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Closed models are cheaper. The reason you need open models is that they give you control". - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang "One of the things that people misunderstand about open models is this: yes, you can host them yourself, and you can build your own computer. But most people use computers in the cloud. Frankly, I think closed models are cheaper. If you do not build everything yourself, you avoid the significant cost and expertise required to train, fine-tune, maintain, guardrail, evaluate, and keep the model safe. You would also need to build or obtain the computers required to host it. So, there is nothing cheap about doing all of that yourself. The reason you need open models is that they give you control. You can adapt them for your own highly specialized use cases. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding about closed models versus open models. We felt it was important for people to understand that there is a place for both." ---- From "Bloomberg Podcasts" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

"Closed models are cheaper. The reason you need open models is that they give you control". - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang "One of the things that people misunderstand about open models is this: yes, you can host them yourself, and you can build your own computer. But most people use computers in the cloud. Frankly, I think closed models are cheaper. If you do not build everything yourself, you avoid the significant cost and expertise required to train, fine-tune, maintain, guardrail, evaluate, and keep the model safe. You would also need to build or obtain the computers required to host it. So, there is nothing cheap about doing all of that yourself. The reason you need open models is that they give you control. You can adapt them for your own highly specialized use cases. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding about closed models versus open models. We felt it was important for people to understand that there is a place for both." ---- From "Bloomberg Podcasts" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

Rohan Paul

32,317 次观看 • 11 天前

ICYMI - OpenAI's Sam Altman warns that the next AI models could be misused by terrorist groups to create novel pathogens, "that's no longer a theoretical thing, or it's not going to be for much longer," and agrees that there could be a "world shaking cyber attack this year."

ICYMI - OpenAI's Sam Altman warns that the next AI models could be misused by terrorist groups to create novel pathogens, "that's no longer a theoretical thing, or it's not going to be for much longer," and agrees that there could be a "world shaking cyber attack this year."

Disclose.tv

431,507 次观看 • 5 个月前

David Sacks says an open-source AI ban is coming, disguised as holding open models to the same standard as closed "I got bad news for you, Chamath. An open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that." "You know what they're going to say? They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed." "Okay, here's how they do it step by step. Let me explain how regulatory capture actually works." "So first of all, you got to get this regulatory apparatus. Okay, Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that, so instead they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI." "They call it self-regulating, it's not really, but anyway that gets them off the ground. Now they've created the standard-setting organization. Now they've got pre-release model testing. Then the pressure grows to codify that in law."

David Sacks says an open-source AI ban is coming, disguised as holding open models to the same standard as closed "I got bad news for you, Chamath. An open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that." "You know what they're going to say? They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed." "Okay, here's how they do it step by step. Let me explain how regulatory capture actually works." "So first of all, you got to get this regulatory apparatus. Okay, Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that, so instead they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI." "They call it self-regulating, it's not really, but anyway that gets them off the ground. Now they've created the standard-setting organization. Now they've got pre-release model testing. Then the pressure grows to codify that in law."

Fireside Alpha

254,573 次观看 • 29 天前

Yesterday, Sam Altman said there could be a "world-shaking cyber attack" this year. Here's Whitney Webb in 2024 noting how "Cyber Polygon," a tabletop exercise for such an attack, focused on the banks being hit. "the goal is to use cyber attacks... [to] centralize control." "One thing that gets overlooked a lot with Cyber Polygon and some of these other related cyber attacks is that they seem to involve the big banks, and some of them even involve central banks. "There's a major theme of banking here, which I think has been, unfortunately, overlooked. It... implies that one of these 'cyber attacks' of the 'cyber pandemic' will be on the financial system to some degree."

Yesterday, Sam Altman said there could be a "world-shaking cyber attack" this year. Here's Whitney Webb in 2024 noting how "Cyber Polygon," a tabletop exercise for such an attack, focused on the banks being hit. "the goal is to use cyber attacks... [to] centralize control." "One thing that gets overlooked a lot with Cyber Polygon and some of these other related cyber attacks is that they seem to involve the big banks, and some of them even involve central banks. "There's a major theme of banking here, which I think has been, unfortunately, overlooked. It... implies that one of these 'cyber attacks' of the 'cyber pandemic' will be on the financial system to some degree."

Sense Receptor

83,867 次观看 • 5 个月前

Schiff: I think there is going to be a massive blue wave that is going to wash away this terrible Republican majority, and we can make that happen. We need to vote these bums out of office.

Schiff: I think there is going to be a massive blue wave that is going to wash away this terrible Republican majority, and we can make that happen. We need to vote these bums out of office.

Acyn

36,232 次观看 • 6 个月前

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

dnap

110,354 次观看 • 2 个月前