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๐Ÿฉธ THE SPACEX SELLING HAS NOT EVEN STARTED YET. The stock is already down 30% from its high. And the unlocks have not begun. Here is the supply cliff ahead. August. The first wave frees up. September. More. October. More. November. The biggest one. Each unlock dumps new supply...

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๐ŸšจTHE SPACEX "FAILED IPO" IS THE SAME TRAP FACEBOOK SET IN 2012 I told you this drop was coming $SPCX is now down nearly 50% from its peak. And if you know your history, you've seen this movie before. Rewind to 2012. Facebook IPO's at $38 to massive hype. Then the lockups start expiring, wave after wave of insider shares flood the market, and the stock bleeds with every single one all the way down to $18. A 50%+ collapse. The media called it a disaster. "Failed IPO." "Overhyped." Sound familiar? Then the supply ran out. And Facebook went on to become one of the greatest stocks of the decade. SpaceX is running the exact same script. Right now only ~5% of SpaceX trades. The rest unlocks in waves the first after Q2 earnings, then more through November. Just like Facebook, every unlock dumps fresh supply onto a stock that already stopped buying at the top. And just like Facebook, price steps lower with each one. That's what's crushing it. Not the company. The plumbing. Sure, the bears have points Japan landed a reusable rocket, Flight 13 slipped, the valuation's stretched. That's exactly why it keeps bleeding through every unlock. Same fear, same headlines, same "it's over" chorus that surrounded Facebook at $18. But watch the other side. Once the float is fully out and the last locked shares hit the tape, the overhang is gone. No more forced sellers. That's when the selling dries up and real size steps in. Institutions never chased Facebook at $38. They bought the exhaustion at $18, after the final unlock, when everyone had left it for dead. That's the entire game. The unlock schedule is the whole map. History is just repeating. I'm not buying yet. The best entry of 2026 is on the far side of these waves you'll know the moment I move. NFA. Notifications on. The ones scrolling past now will be begging for the entry later.

Shelpid.WI3M

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๐Ÿšจ SPACEX JUST CRASHED 50% - EXACTLY AS I EXPECTED I warned this drop was coming. $SPCX is now down nearly 50% from its peak. And this is not the part that scares me. This is the part Iโ€™ve been waiting for. Everyone is calling it a failed IPO. Theyโ€™re right about the price. But completely wrong about the reason. Hereโ€™s what is actually crushing the stock: โ†’ Only around 5% of SpaceX is currently floating โ†’ Another 20% could unlock after Q2 earnings โ†’ More locked shares are expected to hit the market through November โ†’ Every new wave adds massive supply while demand is already weak The market stopped aggressively buying near $225. Now every unlock creates another wave of sellers. That is why the stock keeps bleeding. Not because SpaceX suddenly became a bad company. Because the market structure is terrible. And yes, the bears have real arguments: โ†’ The valuation is still stretched โ†’ Flight 13 was delayed โ†’ Japan successfully landed a reusable rocket โ†’ Competition is getting stronger All of this makes every unlock even more painful. But here is what almost everyone is missing. Once the final locked shares enter the market, the biggest source of selling pressure disappears. No more unlock waves. No more forced supply. No more shareholders waiting for the first chance to exit. That is usually when sellers finally run out. And that is when institutions start looking seriously. They do not buy peak hype at $225. They buy after the market is exhausted, sentiment is destroyed and everyone has already declared the story dead. The unlock schedule is the entire roadmap. I am not buying yet. The best $SPCX entry of 2026 will likely appear after the final waves of supply hit the market. When I enter, I will post it here first. Keep in mind: Iโ€™ve called every major $SPX selloff, 2025 $BTC ATH and move from $126K โ†’ $60K I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and Iโ€™ll do it again, thatโ€™s literally my job. If you still havenโ€™t followed me, youโ€™ll regret it.

DANNY

104,981 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Monat

๐Ÿšจ SPACEX IS DONE? It opened at $150, ripped to $225 in three days, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now it's at $145 - an all-time low, below the open, sitting a few dollars above the IPO price. Down 35% from the top. The chart isn't breaking. It already broke. And this was the easy part. Here's where it goes from here: $145 โ†’ $135 โ†’ $120 โ†’ $100 Why this has to happen the math is brutal and public: โ†’ Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule just to let this listing through. โ†’ It got jammed into the indexes, and every passive fund on the planet was forced to buy near the top. โ†’ Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. โ†’ The first unlock hits on August 6 - right at Q2 earnings. About 20% of insider shares go free, and the float doubles overnight. โ†’ Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to a full unlock. Sit with that. This entire 35% collapse happened on a tiny float, with no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new all-time highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem that's a SpaceX problem. The hype died, the capex is enormous, the valuation is priced at ~100x sales, and the unlock cliff is dead ahead. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. The next leg is where the real money gets made but not on the long side yet. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in 30 days wishing you had.

Shelpid.WI3M

356,362 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Monat

๐ŸšจSOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS WEEK Everyone thinks the SpaceX crash is over. Wrong. And if you think it can't go lower, you're not seeing what's about to hit. SpaceX topped at $225. It's now near $110 almost โˆ’52% in a month. And here's the kicker: that entire collapse happened while only about 5% of shares were even tradeable. That changes next week. The first earnings report in company history lands Aug 4, after close. Everyone's fixated on the revenue number (~$6.8B, Starlink printing). They're watching the wrong thing. Because two days later, the lockup breaks and up to 911 million shares flood the market. That more than doubles the tradeable float overnight. Then another ~7% unlocks around Aug 21, again in September, and it keeps stacking through November. Now connect the dots. The โˆ’52% dump already happened. Retail chased. Funds bought. And now supply is about to 4x. If the stock is already bleeding on 5% float, imagine what 20%+ does to it. And here's the trap it doesn't matter how the earnings actually look: โ†’ If the report is strong, the pop just gives insiders the exit they've been waiting for. They finally get to sell, and retail becomes the liquidity they sell into. โ†’ If the report is weak, you get falling price and a doubled float at the same time a straight trapdoor. Either way, the outcome is the same. A float that doubles doesn't get bought it gets absorbed. Slowly. Lower. Wave after wave into December. Be ready. The real price discovery starts next week. Reminder: I've called the major tops and bottoms for years gold, silver, the oil collapse, the SpaceX drop, Bitcoin's crash. All before they happened. When I exit the markets completely, I'll post it here like always. Turn notifications on. If you're not following yet, you'll understand why soon enough.

Shelpid.WI3M

85,781 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Monat

๐ŸšจTHE SPACEX SETUP JUST TURNED DANGEROUS SpaceX is back at $140. Up 25% in two days. And it ripped higher right after 911.5 million shares became eligible to sell. On the surface that makes zero sense. More supply should mean lower prices, not a rally. But look one level deeper and it clicks. Before the unlock, roughly 34% of the entire float was already shorted. Everyone saw Aug 6 coming and piled into short positions early, betting on the dump. So when the crash didn't hit right away, those shorts got nervous and started covering. That covering is what pushed price up. Retail saw green candles and started chasing. Now the crowd thinks the danger has passed. They're walking straight into the next trap. Here's the thing nobody wants to sit with: insiders didn't lose the ability to sell. Those 911.5 million shares are still unlocked. The supply is still sitting there, waiting. And more unlocks are stacking up behind it. My plan hasn't changed one bit: Fake bounce from $105 to $125 โ†’ done First 20% supply unlock (911M shares) โ†’ done Retest of resistance โ†’ happening now Flush below $100 โ†’ next Final flush into the $77 to $85 zone โ†’ after that I'm not touching this $133 pump. I'm waiting for the $85 area to start building my position, when the supply is exhausted and the sellers finally run dry. Reminder: I've called the major tops and bottoms for years, including the tops in gold and silver, the collapse in oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin's crash. All before they happened. When I start buying SpaceX, I'll post it here publicly, like always. Turn notifications on. If you're not following yet, you'll understand why soon enough.

Shelpid.WI3M

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๐Ÿšจ EVERYONE THINKS THE $SPCX CRASH IS OVER. I think the real bloodbath hasn't even started. SpaceX is already down nearly 50%. Most people see a bargain. I see the biggest supply shock that's still ahead. Here's what almost nobody understands: Only ~5% of the company is actually trading. The other 95% hasn't fully hit the market yet. Starting after Q2 earnings, the float gets flooded in waves: โ†’ +20% โ†’ +14% โ†’ +14% โ†’ +28% Every unlock puts millions of new shares into a market that already rejected $225. That's why price keeps falling. Not because SpaceX is broken. Because supply keeps overwhelming demand. And yesโ€”the bears have a case. โ€ข Japan just landed a reusable rocket. โ€ข Flight 13 was delayed. โ€ข Valuation is still expensive. Every bearish headline becomes even more painful when new shares keep hitting the tape. But here's the part everyone misses. Once the final unlock is behind us... The forced selling disappears. The supply overhang is gone. That's when the game changes. Institutions don't chase IPO hype. They wait until retail gives up. They wait until nobody wants to touch the stock. That's usually where the biggest winners are built. I'm still not buying. I believe the best $SPCX entry of 2026 comes after these unlock wavesโ€”not before. When I start building a position... You'll see it here first. Most people will buy too early. A few will buy when everyone else has already quit. That's usually who makes the real money. Turn notifications on.

WhaleTwits

46,636 Aufrufe โ€ข vor 1 Monat