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SpaceX prints Raptor parts only where casting or machining cannot deliver the internal channels and complex geometry. For everything else, traditional methods win on speed, cost, and scale. The real edge is not adopting every new tool but ruthlessly choosing the process that minimizes time and mass to orbit....

139,649 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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The Cybercab is aiming to produce 2 million units per year. Let this sink in. Today, Tesla produces about ~1.7 million vehicles per year total, across its entire lineup. And now Tesla is preparing to outproduce that with one single vehicle, a fully autonomous one. This is Elon and Tesla going ALL-IN on autonomy. Production is scheduled to start April 2026 at Giga Texas, with volume ramping throughout the year. And as of early 2026, Cybercab prototypes are already being tested around the U.S. The Tesla Cybercab is built from the ground up for unsupervised autonomy. There is no steering wheel and no pedals, just cameras, AI, and Tesla’s custom inference computers. No lidar and radar like other companies, just pure vision and software. Elon put it best on the Q3 2024 earnings call: “It’s not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that is also coming with the Cybercab.” That quote matters a lot bc that means the entire way a vehicle is manufactured is changing with the Cybercab. Tesla is designing what Elon calls “the machine that builds the machine.” The Cybercab uses Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing process, where major sections are built in parallel instead of one long assembly line. There are fewer parts, less steps & cost, and faster scale. That’s how you make 2 million Cybercabs per year possible. FYI, this is not going to be easy though. Elon has been brutally honest about production for many years: • “Prototypes are easy, production is hard.” • “The extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is poorly understood. It’s 1000% to 10,000% harder than making a few prototypes.” • “For cars, it’s maybe 100 times harder to design the manufacturing system than the car itself.” He reinforced this again in January 2026 when talking about Cybercab and Optimus on 𝕏: “Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow - but eventually end up being insanely fast.” This is the key thing most people miss about Tesla manufacturing. Early output will be slow by design. Almost everything is new like the vehicle architecture, factory layout, AI hardware, and manufacturing flow. But once it works and clicks, it begins to scale hard. Tesla already proved they can do this. They survived Model 3 production hell. They turned Model Y into the BEST selling car in the world, of any kind. They ramped Cybertruck, which has over 30,000+ unique parts, to meaningful volume. Elon summed it up perfectly in 2024: “Compared to the insane pain of reaching high volume, positive margin production, prototypes are a piece of cake.” That’s why Tesla makes manufacturing look easy bc they already earned the scars from the last vehicle lineups. The Cybercab is aiming to be: 1/ Under $30,000 price 2/ ~$0.20 per mile operating cost 3/ 200+ mile range 4/ Up to 5x utilization vs personal cars 5/ Designed to run nearly nonstop 24/7 This is what you call manufacturing + AI + autonomy converging at scale. The competitors are still showing prototypes and demos, while Tesla is building new production lines, expanding factories, and actually building the product. I remember when Elon told me in the past that one of Tesla’s key advantage long term was going to be manufacturing technology. I get it now.

Teslaconomics

31,985 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Elon Musk said humanity is currently using less than a trillionth of the sun's power output. A trillion is a million times a million. That is how far we have to go. He was explaining the Kardashev Scale on a SpaceX livestream. A Russian physicist named Nikolai Kardashev invented it in 1964 as the most objective way to measure how advanced a civilization actually is. Not by population. Not by GDP. By energy. Type 1: you harness everything your planet produces. Type 2: you harness your star. Type 3: you harness your galaxy. Where does humanity sit right now? We are not Type 1. We are not close to Type 1. We are a tiny fraction of the way to Type 1. Musk said if aliens visited us today and measured us on this scale, we would not be registering. His exact words: "One microKardashev would be an epic achievement relative to where we are right now." The sun is 99.86% of all mass in the solar system. Everything else, Jupiter, Saturn, Earth, every planet and moon and asteroid combined, is the remaining 0.14%. Earth is in the miscellaneous category. Of the sun's total power output, Earth intercepts roughly half a billionth. And of that half billionth, most hits ocean. Most of the land is Siberia or Antarctica. The actual usable surface where you can capture solar energy is tiny. To get to even a millionth of the sun's power, you cannot stay on Earth. The math does not work. You have to go to space. That is not a dream. That is a physics constraint. And that constraint is exactly why SpaceX exists.

Ihtesham Ali

11,145 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад