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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tactical nukes were floated inside Trump's circle, with a specific mountain bunker in mind. Defense analyst Dr. Andreas Krieg says the proposal was raised seriously before cooler heads intervened, with the MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb America has, offered as the alternative: "You let that genie out of...

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Mario Nawfal

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51,330 просмотров • 2 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 One US drone strike on a rocket launcher brought fifteen Iranian missiles down on Jordan, the Navy and the UAE. Defense analyst Dr. Andreas Krieg says the exchange rate tells you who has room to move and who doesn't: "America has no levers." Iran is pulling every one it holds while Washington reaches for tools it already spent, and Tehran can see the difference from across the Gulf. Dr Andreas Krieg
2:03

🇮🇷🇺🇸 One US drone strike on a rocket launcher brought fifteen Iranian missiles down on Jordan, the Navy and the UAE. Defense analyst Dr. Andreas Krieg says the exchange rate tells you who has room to move and who doesn't: "America has no levers." Iran is pulling every one it holds while Washington reaches for tools it already spent, and Tehran can see the difference from across the Gulf. Dr Andreas Krieg

Mario Nawfal

99,244 просмотров • 2 дней назад

🇸🇦🇮🇷 The Gulf is diversifying its weapons and alliances, and only two countries would actually fight for it. Defense analyst Dr. Andreas Krieg says the United States and Israel remain the sole real guarantors, and neither is a comfortable answer for any Arab capital: "Fifty years of sanctions, of punitive actions in the economic realm, diplomatic realm, military realm, have shown that you cannot deter them by punishment." Half a century of the same approach, and nobody has seriously tried the other one. Dr Andreas Krieg
4:06

🇸🇦🇮🇷 The Gulf is diversifying its weapons and alliances, and only two countries would actually fight for it. Defense analyst Dr. Andreas Krieg says the United States and Israel remain the sole real guarantors, and neither is a comfortable answer for any Arab capital: "Fifty years of sanctions, of punitive actions in the economic realm, diplomatic realm, military realm, have shown that you cannot deter them by punishment." Half a century of the same approach, and nobody has seriously tried the other one. Dr Andreas Krieg

Mario Nawfal

77,746 просмотров • 2 дней назад

Speaking with Al Jazeera on the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE following the bombing of an alleged weapons shipment in Yemen, Dr Andreas Krieg has described a new regional order "that includes the Israelis but excludes other Arab states, the Gulf and Turkey".
1:54

Speaking with Al Jazeera on the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE following the bombing of an alleged weapons shipment in Yemen, Dr Andreas Krieg has described a new regional order "that includes the Israelis but excludes other Arab states, the Gulf and Turkey".

Middle East Eye

13,885 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The nuclear weapon for this war is allegedly already sitting inside CENTCOM's area of responsibility. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says he isn't guessing at a category, he's naming a specific munition already in theater: "I'm quite certain it'll be the already existing gravity advanced nuclear bomb that we have in the area of responsibility in US Central Command." The weapon carrying that role is the B61-12, certified for the F-35A and dialable down to a fraction of a kiloton, which is exactly what makes reaching for it thinkable.
3:13

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The nuclear weapon for this war is allegedly already sitting inside CENTCOM's area of responsibility. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says he isn't guessing at a category, he's naming a specific munition already in theater: "I'm quite certain it'll be the already existing gravity advanced nuclear bomb that we have in the area of responsibility in US Central Command." The weapon carrying that role is the B61-12, certified for the F-35A and dialable down to a fraction of a kiloton, which is exactly what makes reaching for it thinkable.

Mario Nawfal

177,388 просмотров • 16 дней назад

🇮🇱🇮🇷 "IRAN WAS DAYS AWAY FROM MAKING A NUCLEAR BOMB" IDF International Spokesperson: “We saw Iran specifically taking steps to advance the nuclear bomb. They were days away from having a nuclear weapon, which is an Israeli problem, but it’s [also] a problem for all the world. If Iran has a nuclear weapon, that's a problem. If we don’t have this preemptive operation now, we’re gonna have to have a much larger war in the future, and that war in the future, Iran is gonna have a nuclear weapon.” Source: My interview with IDF Spokesperson LTC Nadav Shoshani (below)
3:29

🇮🇱🇮🇷 "IRAN WAS DAYS AWAY FROM MAKING A NUCLEAR BOMB" IDF International Spokesperson: “We saw Iran specifically taking steps to advance the nuclear bomb. They were days away from having a nuclear weapon, which is an Israeli problem, but it’s [also] a problem for all the world. If Iran has a nuclear weapon, that's a problem. If we don’t have this preemptive operation now, we’re gonna have to have a much larger war in the future, and that war in the future, Iran is gonna have a nuclear weapon.” Source: My interview with IDF Spokesperson LTC Nadav Shoshani (below)

Mario Nawfal

439,921 просмотров • 1 год назад

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: Since October 7th, the UAE's PR has been on a downhill slope. Qatar & Saudi Arabia have become dominant in the information domain themselves - the Emirates are no longer on their own. The UAE is no longer seen as advancing stability. Arming non-state actors & secessionists - most visibly in Sudan - has made them a cause of instability. The atrocities in Sudan were a tipping point. But rather than backing down, Abu Dhabi doubles down. That's their strategic culture - push through pressure rather than apologize. Saudi Arabia has shown a learning curve. Qatar has changed under pressure. The UAE hasn't. They're digging a deeper hole - an echo chamber where Abu Dhabi insists everyone else is wrong, despite most Arabs, Muslims & Western governments. The narrative now coming out of Abu Dhabi is "we're different, we don't need anyone." That "us against the world" mentality is very similar to Netanyahu's Israel today.
2:29

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: Since October 7th, the UAE's PR has been on a downhill slope. Qatar & Saudi Arabia have become dominant in the information domain themselves - the Emirates are no longer on their own. The UAE is no longer seen as advancing stability. Arming non-state actors & secessionists - most visibly in Sudan - has made them a cause of instability. The atrocities in Sudan were a tipping point. But rather than backing down, Abu Dhabi doubles down. That's their strategic culture - push through pressure rather than apologize. Saudi Arabia has shown a learning curve. Qatar has changed under pressure. The UAE hasn't. They're digging a deeper hole - an echo chamber where Abu Dhabi insists everyone else is wrong, despite most Arabs, Muslims & Western governments. The narrative now coming out of Abu Dhabi is "we're different, we don't need anyone." That "us against the world" mentality is very similar to Netanyahu's Israel today.

Clash Report

19,548 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE NUCLEAR TABOO: ARE WE HEADED FOR A DEMONSTRATION? With betting markets placing the risk of a nuclear event at nearly 30%, the unthinkable is becoming a dinner-table discussion. Scott Ritter warns that the West has removed the last obstacle to an Iranian bomb by eliminating the leadership that held the religious fatwa against nuclear weapons. If the mission shifts to "nuclear demonstrations" in the desert to force a surrender, we are entering a cycle of escalation with no return. Scott Ritter
3:51

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE NUCLEAR TABOO: ARE WE HEADED FOR A DEMONSTRATION? With betting markets placing the risk of a nuclear event at nearly 30%, the unthinkable is becoming a dinner-table discussion. Scott Ritter warns that the West has removed the last obstacle to an Iranian bomb by eliminating the leadership that held the religious fatwa against nuclear weapons. If the mission shifts to "nuclear demonstrations" in the desert to force a surrender, we are entering a cycle of escalation with no return. Scott Ritter

Mario Nawfal

81,800 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸THE PATH TO WORLD WAR III: THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE We are currently in a more dangerous position than the world was before the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. In a chilling warning, Mehdi Hasan explains how the invasion of non-nuclear Iran is signaling to Turkey and Saudi Arabia that they MUST acquire nukes to survive. The era of non-proliferation is dead as regional powers realize that only nuclear deterrence can prevent a U.S.-backed regime change. The "elephants" are fighting, and the entire global order is being trampled in the process. Mehdi Hasan
4:52

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸THE PATH TO WORLD WAR III: THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE We are currently in a more dangerous position than the world was before the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. In a chilling warning, Mehdi Hasan explains how the invasion of non-nuclear Iran is signaling to Turkey and Saudi Arabia that they MUST acquire nukes to survive. The era of non-proliferation is dead as regional powers realize that only nuclear deterrence can prevent a U.S.-backed regime change. The "elephants" are fighting, and the entire global order is being trampled in the process. Mehdi Hasan

Mario Nawfal

43,025 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🚨 AWESOME! JD Vance just DROPPED this message to every single American, after President Trump stuns the world with the Iran deal: "Thank you. Because of your patience, I think that we've solved the problem that has plagued this country again for well before I was even BORN, which is a terrorist supporting Iran that was pursuing a nuclear weapon." "We are now at a place here where we can stay with confidence. They're not going to get a nuclear weapon." 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
0:22

🚨 AWESOME! JD Vance just DROPPED this message to every single American, after President Trump stuns the world with the Iran deal: "Thank you. Because of your patience, I think that we've solved the problem that has plagued this country again for well before I was even BORN, which is a terrorist supporting Iran that was pursuing a nuclear weapon." "We are now at a place here where we can stay with confidence. They're not going to get a nuclear weapon." 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

180,411 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP ISN'T ANY MORE LIKELY TO USE NUKES THAN ANYONE ELSE U.S. Major General Randy Manner says Trump's ultimatum of making "a whole civilization die tonight" was just a bluff to secure a ceasefire. He talked about the safeguards in place to prevent doomsday scenarios that make for good movie plots involving rogue presidents. The U.S. would only consider the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort... even if Iran is the target in mind.
5:38

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP ISN'T ANY MORE LIKELY TO USE NUKES THAN ANYONE ELSE U.S. Major General Randy Manner says Trump's ultimatum of making "a whole civilization die tonight" was just a bluff to secure a ceasefire. He talked about the safeguards in place to prevent doomsday scenarios that make for good movie plots involving rogue presidents. The U.S. would only consider the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort... even if Iran is the target in mind.

Mario Nawfal

23,339 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸 Something that has held since Hiroshima is now reportedly on the table in White House strategy meetings. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance is not joking about this one. "The posture of the United States has always been since Hiroshima and Nagasaki that the United States will not employ a nuclear weapon as a first strike unless the United States itself was attacked with a nuclear weapon." If that line moves, nothing else matters. Malcolm Nance
1:46

🇺🇸 Something that has held since Hiroshima is now reportedly on the table in White House strategy meetings. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance is not joking about this one. "The posture of the United States has always been since Hiroshima and Nagasaki that the United States will not employ a nuclear weapon as a first strike unless the United States itself was attacked with a nuclear weapon." If that line moves, nothing else matters. Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

50,229 просмотров • 17 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 America destroyed one rocket launcher with a single drone, and Iran answered with 515 missiles Andreas Krieg zeroed in on the mismatch. Washington chose a drone rather than an airstrike, deliberately small, hoping to stop the mine-laying without provoking much. Tehran replied with a strategic barrage across Jordan, US naval targets and the UAE. "This is a different regime from the regime that we saw in 23, 24 and early 25" They no longer wait, and they no longer answer in proportion. Which exposes the flaw in the periodic-strikes plan Axios describes. Andreas reads that leak as pressure rather than policy, and warns that telling Iran you'll hit it whenever you please, mid-negotiation, only convinces Tehran the Americans must be pushed out of the region entirely. His deeper point should worry every Gulf capital. Iran doesn't aim at Israel because Israel absorbs punishment. It aims at the Gulf because the Gulf breaks first and picks up the phone to Washington. A retired Navy captain wrote in Military Times that losing the Bahrain base equals "losing an aircraft carrier" Meanwhile Riyadh is quietly seeking $8 billion in new loans. Fifty years of punishment never bent Iran once. The only deterrent left is making the Gulf too tough to hurt, and that takes years nobody has. Dr Andreas Krieg
43:27

🇺🇸🇮🇷 America destroyed one rocket launcher with a single drone, and Iran answered with 515 missiles Andreas Krieg zeroed in on the mismatch. Washington chose a drone rather than an airstrike, deliberately small, hoping to stop the mine-laying without provoking much. Tehran replied with a strategic barrage across Jordan, US naval targets and the UAE. "This is a different regime from the regime that we saw in 23, 24 and early 25" They no longer wait, and they no longer answer in proportion. Which exposes the flaw in the periodic-strikes plan Axios describes. Andreas reads that leak as pressure rather than policy, and warns that telling Iran you'll hit it whenever you please, mid-negotiation, only convinces Tehran the Americans must be pushed out of the region entirely. His deeper point should worry every Gulf capital. Iran doesn't aim at Israel because Israel absorbs punishment. It aims at the Gulf because the Gulf breaks first and picks up the phone to Washington. A retired Navy captain wrote in Military Times that losing the Bahrain base equals "losing an aircraft carrier" Meanwhile Riyadh is quietly seeking $8 billion in new loans. Fifty years of punishment never bent Iran once. The only deterrent left is making the Gulf too tough to hurt, and that takes years nobody has. Dr Andreas Krieg

Mario Nawfal

323,643 просмотров • 2 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington celebrates a Hormuz deal as the Pentagon drafts a nuclear strategy for the wars America can no longer fight with missiles Everyone's watching the signing ceremony. David Pyne, former Army headquarters staffer and missile defense insider, is watching everything else, and his tour of the board will keep you up tonight. Start with the reported new Pentagon nuclear strategy leaning on tactical nukes for a regional conflict. Pyne spent a decade warning about this exact gap: by his estimate Russia holds FIFTY times America's tactical arsenal, China holds near-monopoly in the Pacific, and America's fallback rides on two submarines on station, carrying a weapon he calls "the most destabilizing nuclear weapon we probably have in our arsenal," because Beijing can't tell a small warhead from a decapitation strike until it's too late. Then his reporting on the room where the war began: which advisers warned against it, who called the five-day regime-change pitch what it was, and the one voice that wanted it. His Ukraine assessment cuts against everything you've been told, from his case that the real story of Kyiv 2022 is nothing like the legend, to the thousand kilometers of border almost nobody guards, to his read, sourced from Russia, on why Putin keeps overruling his own hardliners. And through it all, one credit he genuinely gives Trump: an iron refusal to war directly with nuclear peers. Brandon Weichert David Pyne 🇺🇸
1:09:43

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington celebrates a Hormuz deal as the Pentagon drafts a nuclear strategy for the wars America can no longer fight with missiles Everyone's watching the signing ceremony. David Pyne, former Army headquarters staffer and missile defense insider, is watching everything else, and his tour of the board will keep you up tonight. Start with the reported new Pentagon nuclear strategy leaning on tactical nukes for a regional conflict. Pyne spent a decade warning about this exact gap: by his estimate Russia holds FIFTY times America's tactical arsenal, China holds near-monopoly in the Pacific, and America's fallback rides on two submarines on station, carrying a weapon he calls "the most destabilizing nuclear weapon we probably have in our arsenal," because Beijing can't tell a small warhead from a decapitation strike until it's too late. Then his reporting on the room where the war began: which advisers warned against it, who called the five-day regime-change pitch what it was, and the one voice that wanted it. His Ukraine assessment cuts against everything you've been told, from his case that the real story of Kyiv 2022 is nothing like the legend, to the thousand kilometers of border almost nobody guards, to his read, sourced from Russia, on why Putin keeps overruling his own hardliners. And through it all, one credit he genuinely gives Trump: an iron refusal to war directly with nuclear peers. Brandon Weichert David Pyne 🇺🇸

Mario Nawfal

256,040 просмотров • 28 дней назад

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: For Mohammed bin Zayed, the Palestinian cause was always a fringe issue. WikiLeaks cables showed MBZ speaking very negatively about it. The Abraham Accords were never about peace or Palestine. It was about national interest - access to Israel's tech sector, intelligence networks & technology. In return, giving Israel access to Emirati jurisdictions & proxy territories in Yemen, Somaliland & Sudan. The only ideological component is a common fight against Islamism - really a fight against the Arab street & those promoting the Palestinian cause. On Gaza, the Emiratis were purely pragmatic. They provided humanitarian aid while enabling the IDF through back-channel deals - offering mercenaries on the ground & proposing to police Gaza alongside the IDF. The message to Washington was simple: "We are the only Arab country that can help you because we have a relationship with Israel. We are exceptional." It was never about the fate of Palestinians. Abu Dhabi has been actively shying away from even calling itself a Muslim country.
2:13

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: For Mohammed bin Zayed, the Palestinian cause was always a fringe issue. WikiLeaks cables showed MBZ speaking very negatively about it. The Abraham Accords were never about peace or Palestine. It was about national interest - access to Israel's tech sector, intelligence networks & technology. In return, giving Israel access to Emirati jurisdictions & proxy territories in Yemen, Somaliland & Sudan. The only ideological component is a common fight against Islamism - really a fight against the Arab street & those promoting the Palestinian cause. On Gaza, the Emiratis were purely pragmatic. They provided humanitarian aid while enabling the IDF through back-channel deals - offering mercenaries on the ground & proposing to police Gaza alongside the IDF. The message to Washington was simple: "We are the only Arab country that can help you because we have a relationship with Israel. We are exceptional." It was never about the fate of Palestinians. Abu Dhabi has been actively shying away from even calling itself a Muslim country.

Clash Report

42,937 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 The weapon that detonated on the testing ground in Israel is meant for nuclear warheads. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance broke down what happened. "It has one function on this planet, which is to loft an atomic warhead. You're not going to be seeing a Jericho three with a one tonne non-nuclear warhead." If this was a test gone wrong, the world just watched Israel's strategic nuclear deterrent fail in real time. Malcolm Nance
5:42

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 The weapon that detonated on the testing ground in Israel is meant for nuclear warheads. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance broke down what happened. "It has one function on this planet, which is to loft an atomic warhead. You're not going to be seeing a Jericho three with a one tonne non-nuclear warhead." If this was a test gone wrong, the world just watched Israel's strategic nuclear deterrent fail in real time. Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

173,890 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Physicist Hans-Benjamin Braun claims the December 15–16, 2024 explosion in Tartus, Syria may have been caused by a very small nuclear device of about 0.3 kilotons. The blast reportedly produced a seismic signal equivalent to about a magnitude 3.0–3.1 earthquake, which he says fits the expected yield of such a weapon. He also points to radiation spikes detected at monitoring stations in Cyprus and parts of Turkey about 16 hours later, which he interprets as fallout carried by the wind, along with reported radiation levels near the explosion site that he says match a low-yield nuclear detonation. He also says that this was not the only low-yield nuclear weapon used in the recent conflicts. If this is true, it would mean we are already in a limited nuclear strikes scenario, with the next stage being World War III and full nuclear war before the geophysical event. This is the alleged nuclear explosion. Keep in mind that if this was a 0.3 kiloton bomb, it would be about 50 times weaker than the Hiroshima bomb.
0:22

Physicist Hans-Benjamin Braun claims the December 15–16, 2024 explosion in Tartus, Syria may have been caused by a very small nuclear device of about 0.3 kilotons. The blast reportedly produced a seismic signal equivalent to about a magnitude 3.0–3.1 earthquake, which he says fits the expected yield of such a weapon. He also points to radiation spikes detected at monitoring stations in Cyprus and parts of Turkey about 16 hours later, which he interprets as fallout carried by the wind, along with reported radiation levels near the explosion site that he says match a low-yield nuclear detonation. He also says that this was not the only low-yield nuclear weapon used in the recent conflicts. If this is true, it would mean we are already in a limited nuclear strikes scenario, with the next stage being World War III and full nuclear war before the geophysical event. This is the alleged nuclear explosion. Keep in mind that if this was a 0.3 kiloton bomb, it would be about 50 times weaker than the Hiroshima bomb.

Open Minded Approach

725,887 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: The UAE is trying to regain control over its destiny - reviewing every relationship & assessing the utility of every multilateral membership to its own security. Abu Dhabi is a Machiavellian actor built purely around national interests - specifically Abu Dhabi's interests, not just the UAE's. Since 2020, there's been immense tension with Saudi Arabia in OPEC over oil quotas. Abu Dhabi hasn't complied with quotas for a long time. This move was coming & many analysts predicted it. The deeper issue isn't OPEC - it's a geopolitical redefinition of Abu Dhabi's destiny. That could lead to reconsidering ties with the Arab League & the Organization of Islamic Cooperation too.
1:46

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: The UAE is trying to regain control over its destiny - reviewing every relationship & assessing the utility of every multilateral membership to its own security. Abu Dhabi is a Machiavellian actor built purely around national interests - specifically Abu Dhabi's interests, not just the UAE's. Since 2020, there's been immense tension with Saudi Arabia in OPEC over oil quotas. Abu Dhabi hasn't complied with quotas for a long time. This move was coming & many analysts predicted it. The deeper issue isn't OPEC - it's a geopolitical redefinition of Abu Dhabi's destiny. That could lead to reconsidering ties with the Arab League & the Organization of Islamic Cooperation too.

Clash Report

23,949 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is desperately trying to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear programme while needing to get it back to the negotiating table to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is that one of Iran's most important remaining nuclear facilities is believed to be buried too deep for even America's most powerful conventional bunker-buster bombs to reliably destroy. That has led some analysts to discuss a possibility that until recently would have been almost unthinkable: a U.S. tactical nuclear strike. The greatest danger wouldn't necessarily be Iran's immediate retaliation. It would be breaking an almost 80-year taboo on the use of nuclear weapons. That precedent wouldn't stay in the Middle East. Russia has repeatedly threatened nuclear escalation during the war in Ukraine but has so far stopped short of crossing that line. Part of that restraint comes from the enormous political cost of being the first country since 1945 to use a nuclear weapon in war. If the U.S crosses that line first, it's easier for others to follow. It becomes far harder for Washington and its allies to argue that Russia must never do something they have already done themselves. A tactical nuclear strike might solve one military problem in Iran. But it could also make nuclear weapons politically usable again in every future war that involves a rival with nuclear capabilities. Writer: Mhedi
1:48

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is desperately trying to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear programme while needing to get it back to the negotiating table to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is that one of Iran's most important remaining nuclear facilities is believed to be buried too deep for even America's most powerful conventional bunker-buster bombs to reliably destroy. That has led some analysts to discuss a possibility that until recently would have been almost unthinkable: a U.S. tactical nuclear strike. The greatest danger wouldn't necessarily be Iran's immediate retaliation. It would be breaking an almost 80-year taboo on the use of nuclear weapons. That precedent wouldn't stay in the Middle East. Russia has repeatedly threatened nuclear escalation during the war in Ukraine but has so far stopped short of crossing that line. Part of that restraint comes from the enormous political cost of being the first country since 1945 to use a nuclear weapon in war. If the U.S crosses that line first, it's easier for others to follow. It becomes far harder for Washington and its allies to argue that Russia must never do something they have already done themselves. A tactical nuclear strike might solve one military problem in Iran. But it could also make nuclear weapons politically usable again in every future war that involves a rival with nuclear capabilities. Writer: Mhedi

Mario Nawfal

85,233 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: The UAE is a federation of 7 emirates - but under Mohammed bin Zayed, it has become increasingly Abu Dhabi-centric. Foreign policy, security & statecraft are all determined by the al-Nahyan. Everyone else falls in line. Abu Dhabi's strategic culture is Machiavellian, zero-sum & deterministic - rooted in Bedouin inland heritage, less commercially minded than the coastal emirates like Dubai. This culture is now conflated with UAE strategy as a whole, but it isn't. There is internal friction. Dubai's mercantile culture favors engagement & multilateral solutions over confrontation. On Iran, Abu Dhabi is pushing deterrence & force - even with Israel if necessary. That is not in Dubai's interest. But Abu Dhabi dictates the terms.
2:05

Dr. Andreas Krieg (Dr Andreas Krieg) | Gulf Security Expert | Institute of Middle Eastern Studies: The UAE is a federation of 7 emirates - but under Mohammed bin Zayed, it has become increasingly Abu Dhabi-centric. Foreign policy, security & statecraft are all determined by the al-Nahyan. Everyone else falls in line. Abu Dhabi's strategic culture is Machiavellian, zero-sum & deterministic - rooted in Bedouin inland heritage, less commercially minded than the coastal emirates like Dubai. This culture is now conflated with UAE strategy as a whole, but it isn't. There is internal friction. Dubai's mercantile culture favors engagement & multilateral solutions over confrontation. On Iran, Abu Dhabi is pushing deterrence & force - even with Israel if necessary. That is not in Dubai's interest. But Abu Dhabi dictates the terms.

Clash Report

18,939 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад