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Technology doesn't automatically improve it degrades if we don't fight for it People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better Elon Musk reminds us that progress...

15,798 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk: Technology only improves if smart people work like crazy to make it better. “I had simply come to the conclusion that if something didn't happen to improve rocket technology, we'd be stuck on Earth forever. And the big aerospace companies had just had no interest in radical innovation. All they wanted to do was try to make their old technology slightly better every year. And in fact, sometimes it would actually get worse. And particularly in rockets, it's pretty bad. In 1969 we were able to go to the moon with a Saturn V and then the space shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. And then the space shuttle retired. I mean that trend is basically trends to zero. People sometimes think technology just automatically gets better every year, but it actually doesn't. It only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better. That's how any technology actually gets better. And by itself, technology, if people don't work on it actually will decline. You can look at the history of civilizations, many civilizations, and look at say ancient Egypt where they were able to build these incredible pyramids and then they found they basically forgot how to build pyramids. And then even hieroglyphics, they forgot how to read hieroglyphics. Or you look at Rome and how they're able to build these incredible roadways and aqueducts and indoor plumbing and they forgot how to do all of those things. And there are many such examples in history. So I think you should always bear in mind that, you know, entropy is not on your side.” Interview with Y Combinator, September 15, 2016

ELON CLIPS

14,142 次观看 • 1 个月前

Elon Musk described the one lie every dying civilization tells itself. Musk: “People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better.” It doesn’t plateau. It doesn’t stall. Musk: “And actually it will, I think, by itself degrade.” Degrade. The universe does not trend toward progress. It trends toward disorder. Every advancement in history has been a temporary act of defiance against a reality that defaults to dust. In 1969 we put a human on the Moon. By 2011 the United States couldn’t put a single human in orbit. Musk: “The trend is like, down to nothing.” That is not a funding gap. That is not a political failure. That is a civilizational confession. We didn’t lose the technology. We lost the will to maintain it. The Romans engineered aqueducts that moved fresh water across an empire. After Rome fell, Europeans drank from rivers for a thousand years. The knowledge survived. The will to use it didn’t. Progress is not a ratchet. It does not lock into place once you reach it. It is a rope being dragged uphill. And the moment you stop pulling, it slides back down without making a sound. Every generation inherits what the last one built and assumes it’s permanent. Every collapsed civilization believed the exact same thing. Musk saw this while the rest of the world was still coasting on momentum it mistook for direction. That’s why SpaceX exists. Not for spectacle. Not for prestige. Because the window closes. Musk: “Being a spacefaring civilization is definitely not inevitable.” The cruelest paradox in human history. The more successful a civilization becomes, the more its people assume success is the natural state of things. That assumption is the first stage of collapse. The peak and the decline are indistinguishable from the inside. No one feels it turn. Forward is not a direction the universe owes you. It is a direction that costs everything. And it disappears the moment you take it for granted. The most dangerous sentence in human history was never a declaration of war. It was “someone else will figure it out.” That is how civilizations talk about the future right before they stop having one.

Dustin

25,292 次观看 • 1 个月前

Elon Musk just exposed the one lie every modern nation tells itself. Musk: “In 1969, we were able to send somebody to the moon.” Rotary phones. Computers the size of rooms. Slide rules. We put a human on the moon with less processing power than your watch. Musk: “Then the space shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit.” The most advanced nation in human history went from footprints on the moon to zero capability of leaving the atmosphere. That is not a funding problem. That is civilizational decay dressed up as a policy decision. Musk: “People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves… it will, by itself, degrade.” That sentence should keep you up tonight. We treat progress like gravity. Like it pulls us forward whether we try or not. It is the opposite. Progress is a boulder on a hill. The second you stop pushing, it rolls back over you. And it never announces itself. Musk: “You look at great civilizations like ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that.” They did not run out of stone. They were not conquered. They got comfortable. And the knowledge bled out so quietly that nobody noticed until it was already gone. That is the real threat to everything we have built. Not a nuclear flash. Not an asteroid. Not some dramatic Hollywood collapse. A quiet forgetting. Every chip we fabricate. Every rocket we launch. Every data center we power. All of it held together by a thin fraction of the population working at a pace that would break most people. The moment that fraction gets tired or outnumbered by people who believe the machine runs itself, everything dissolves. And here is the part nobody wants to say out loud. We are not special. We are running the same operating system as every civilization that came before us. Comfort is the sedative. Complacency is the flatline. One generation that stops fighting is all it has ever taken. You do not lose the future in a war. You lose it in your sleep.

Dustin

853,186 次观看 • 2 个月前

Jensen to AI Leaders: “We have to be far more thoughtful” when communicating to the public Jensen Huang: “(AI) is not a biological being. It is not alien. It is not conscious. It is computer software.” “We say things like, ‘We don't understand it at all.’ It is not true. We understand a lot of things about this technology.” Chamath: “If you were in the seat in the boardroom of Anthropic over that whole scuttlebutt with the Department of War, what do you think you would've told Dario and that team to do, maybe, differently to try to change some of this outcome and some of this perception?” Jensen: “The first thing that I would say about Anthropic is, first of all, the technology is incredible. We are a large consumer of Anthropic technology.” “The desire to warn people about the capability of the technology is also really terrific.” “We just have to make sure that we understand that the world has a spectrum, and that warning is good, scaring is less good because this technology is too important to us.” “I think that it is fine to predict the future, but we need to be a little bit more circumspect. We need to have a little bit more humility, that, in fact, we can't completely predict the future.” “And to say things that are quite extreme, quite catastrophic, that there's no evidence of it happening, could be more damaging than people think.” “And of course we are technology leaders.” “There was a time when nobody listened to us, but now because technology is so important in the social fabric, such an important industry, so important to national security, our words do matter.” “And I think we have to be much more circumspect, we have to be more moderate, we have to be more balanced, we have to be far more thoughtful.”

The All-In Podcast

56,915 次观看 • 3 个月前