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TeraWulf $WULF CFO Patrick Fleury states that either NVIDIA, Amazon, or Google will backstop Anthropic's lease payments to TeraWulf at their 401MW Kentucky data center, unless Anthropic itself goes public and establishes a "really strong" investment grade credit rating in the near-term. "In the press release, we said that...

15,665 views • 9 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Wall Street just pulled off the exact move that turned 2008 from a housing problem into a global collapse. They turned Nvidia graphics cards into bonds, stamped them investment grade, and started selling them into the funds that hold retirement money. Here is what happened while everyone was busy arguing about whether AI stocks were overvalued: The company at the center is CoreWeave, which rents out Nvidia chips to AI companies. To buy those chips, it borrows enormous sums, and the collateral on the loans is the chips themselves. That alone is alarming because a graphics card LOSES most of its value within a few years as the next generation makes it obsolete. You are lending against an asset built to rot. In January, Nvidia invested $2 billion straight into CoreWeave, which then used borrowed money to buy more Nvidia chips. On March 31, CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion loan backed by its chips, and for the first time the rating agencies stamped that chip-backed debt investment grade, with Moody's assigning it an A3. Debt secured by depreciating graphics cards was rated nearly as SAFE as a blue-chip corporate bond. Then on May 18, CoreWeave closed the first chip-backed facility designed to be publicly syndicated and traded on secondary markets. And that's the part that really matters because it means this debt can now be sliced up, passed around, and bought by anyone, including the bond funds and pension managers who are required to hold "safe" investment-grade paper. On June 11, it announced another $3.5 billion in bonds on top of all of it. Now compare this to what happened in the past: Subprime mortgages in 2007 were not dangerous because some people got loans they couldn't repay... They became a global bomb the moment that debt got rated AAA and sold into the wider financial system, because the rating is what let it bleed into money market funds, pensions, and bank balance sheets that were supposed to be boring and safe. The bad loans were the spark but the packaging and rating were the detonator. And that detonator just got built for AI. Debt backed by graphics cards is now rated investment grade and trades on secondary markets, which means the AI bubble is no longer trapped inside tech stocks you can choose not to own. It has been quietly converted into bonds and routed toward the retirement accounts of people who have never typed a single prompt in their lives. And the whole structure rests on a backlog of customer "commitments" that CoreWeave values at nearly $100 BILLION, backed by a $21 billion Meta deal and a $6 billion Jane Street deal. Those are promises to pay over many years, made by AI companies that are themselves mostly unprofitable and burning cash. If even a few of those customers slow down or walk away, the collateral sitting under all this rated debt is a warehouse of chips losing value by the month. The AI bubble used to be a stock-market story you could opt out of. But as of this spring, that isn't the case anymore. So here's the real question: When the people packaging this debt swear to you that it's safe, who do you think is standing on the other side of that trade?

Ricardo

211,268 views • 1 month ago

Gavin's takes on Microsoft, Google, Meta, & Amazon: Microsoft ($MSFT): "I like Satya, I admire him. He's an exceptional CEO, and I give him a lot of credit for the decisions he's made. But he did go from, "We're going to make Google dance," to being the product manager of Copilot in 3 years. The decision Satya is making now, which the market has punished him for, but I think is the right decision — who knows how fast Azure could be growing if they were willing to just sell GPUs to OpenAI. 'We're going to use our compute internally to make our own products better.' One reason Copilot was so bad, or has been so bad, is that there wasn't enough compute available. They're fixing that. He's making good decisions that are risky decisions, to position Microsoft for this world where frontier models are no longer API-accessible. It's a really courageous decision that I give him a lot of credit for. Microsoft probably would be an $800 stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve solely OpenAI and Anthropic's capacity instead of using them for their own products." Google ($GOOG): "Google was incredible last year because they had that TPU advantage, which is now gone. The reason I think they're still in a great position is they have the most compute of everyone. We talked about the value of installed bases being higher as a result of shortages — they have the biggest installed base of compute. Google I/O is this week. If they don't release something that even slightly leapfrogs OpenAI and/or Claude, that's interesting. It's not a disaster for Google, it's just interesting. Between the amount of data they have, the YouTube data, the amount of compute, the search business — Google's never not going to be in a good position. You see that with GCP going crazy." Meta ($META): "You've got to give Zuckerberg immense credit, for what he's done in terms of making Meta an AI-first company internally. He is the only one of those true internet giants to have done that. I give him a lot of credit for paying up when he did for contracts, that talent. And Muse was a really big upside surprise. It was the first model from MSL, and it's not on the Pareto frontier with xAI, Google's one entrant, OpenAI and Claude, but it's pretty close. That was very impressive to me. So Meta is in a better position — still not as strong of an absolute position as Google, but a better position." Amazon ($AMZN): "Amazon is in a really strong position because of Trainium. You're going to see real P&L efficiencies from robotics over the next 18 months in their retail business. I actually think Nova — their internal models are not where Muse is, but they're better than they get credit for. The two companies who are the most deeply engaged with startups are Amazon and Nvidia by a mile. It's going to end up being a pretty big advantage for Nvidia and Amazon — with Google right behind them — to have this engagement that you just don't see from these other hyperscalers."

Invest Like the Best

52,492 views • 1 month ago