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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the...

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Mario Nawfal

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83,318 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 All 3 pillars holding the relationship together are under more stress than ever before. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it out: "Israel has long ago ceased to become David. It is now seen by many Americans as Goliath." When the image shifts in the American mind, the relationship follows. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 All 3 pillars holding the relationship together are under more stress than ever before. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it out: "Israel has long ago ceased to become David. It is now seen by many Americans as Goliath." When the image shifts in the American mind, the relationship follows. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump didn't get conned into this war. He wanted it. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down the trifecta: Trump promised help to Iranian protesters, deployed massive military assets, then got the Netanyahu call he was waiting for. "Netanyahu is pushing on a very, very, very open door." 3 steps. One war. Zero clean answers on where it ends. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump didn't get conned into this war. He wanted it. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down the trifecta: Trump promised help to Iranian protesters, deployed massive military assets, then got the Netanyahu call he was waiting for. "Netanyahu is pushing on a very, very, very open door." 3 steps. One war. Zero clean answers on where it ends. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller

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72,551 просмотров • 20 дней назад

🇮🇷 Every concession so far has favored Tehran, and the one vulnerability that could change that, the Strait of Hormuz, is being squeezed in real time. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says following these talks hour by hour is a mistake. "The Iranians said they were going to walk out. They were insulted by the president's social media posts. They're back on. They're off, they're back on, they're off." Iran hasn't budged on nukes. Not once. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇷 Every concession so far has favored Tehran, and the one vulnerability that could change that, the Strait of Hormuz, is being squeezed in real time. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says following these talks hour by hour is a mistake. "The Iranians said they were going to walk out. They were insulted by the president's social media posts. They're back on. They're off, they're back on, they're off." Iran hasn't budged on nukes. Not once. Aaron David Miller

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59,394 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

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32,416 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

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15,090 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller

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66,559 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🇺🇸 Netanyahu has nowhere to turn, no allies to appeal to, and an election looming that leaves him exposed. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it all out. "No American president has ever had a situation where an Israeli prime minister has no higher court of appeals." This is a different kind of pressure. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Netanyahu has nowhere to turn, no allies to appeal to, and an election looming that leaves him exposed. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it all out. "No American president has ever had a situation where an Israeli prime minister has no higher court of appeals." This is a different kind of pressure. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Losing one war does not end American power, and the history books back that up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just pushed back hard on the theory that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would shatter dollar dominance. "I was told in the wake of Biden's calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that America would never, could never lead again." He didn't believe it then. He doesn't believe it now. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Losing one war does not end American power, and the history books back that up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just pushed back hard on the theory that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would shatter dollar dominance. "I was told in the wake of Biden's calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that America would never, could never lead again." He didn't believe it then. He doesn't believe it now. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller

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92,789 просмотров • 13 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇱 Netanyahu stays in power because the alternative is prison or a plea deal that ends his career. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller has negotiated with 6 Israeli prime ministers and says this one is different. "He must remain in power." The most skilled, ruthless politician in Israel's history is playing for his freedom, not just his country. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇱 Netanyahu stays in power because the alternative is prison or a plea deal that ends his career. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller has negotiated with 6 Israeli prime ministers and says this one is different. "He must remain in power." The most skilled, ruthless politician in Israel's history is playing for his freedom, not just his country. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller sees the argument forming, but refuses to buy it. Iran's nuclear breakout is now years away, not weeks, and Khamenei is dead, yet the cost to the global economy and the Middle East may still outweigh every gain. "I'm not inclined to accept this because I really don't believe in transformations. Life is about transactions." The ledger is still open, and time is doing the accounting. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller sees the argument forming, but refuses to buy it. Iran's nuclear breakout is now years away, not weeks, and Khamenei is dead, yet the cost to the global economy and the Middle East may still outweigh every gain. "I'm not inclined to accept this because I really don't believe in transformations. Life is about transactions." The ledger is still open, and time is doing the accounting. Aaron David Miller

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95,456 просмотров • 27 дней назад