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🇮🇷 Every concession so far has favored Tehran, and the one vulnerability that could change that, the Strait of Hormuz, is being squeezed in real time. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says following these talks hour by hour is a mistake. "The Iranians said they were going to...

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Mario Nawfal

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59,394 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller
2:11

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,455 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Losing one war does not end American power, and the history books back that up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just pushed back hard on the theory that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would shatter dollar dominance. "I was told in the wake of Biden's calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that America would never, could never lead again." He didn't believe it then. He doesn't believe it now. Aaron David Miller
2:49

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Losing one war does not end American power, and the history books back that up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just pushed back hard on the theory that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would shatter dollar dominance. "I was told in the wake of Biden's calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that America would never, could never lead again." He didn't believe it then. He doesn't believe it now. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

95,890 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller
1:38

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

83,318 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller
2:43

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

56,861 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller
8:07

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

15,090 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller
4:52

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

32,416 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇮🇷 The math is staggering: 130 crude carriers running daily adds up to $70 billion a year, and that money may be buying Iran something more valuable than bombs. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues Tehran may be choosing economic integration over nuclear pariah status. "If the might of the US military married to the might of the Israeli Defense Forces couldn't crack the Iranian regime in five months, what makes them think they're going to crack it in 5 years?" Sanctions didn't stop them. Strikes didn't stop them. Now they're cashing in. Aaron David Miller
1:16

🇮🇷 The math is staggering: 130 crude carriers running daily adds up to $70 billion a year, and that money may be buying Iran something more valuable than bombs. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues Tehran may be choosing economic integration over nuclear pariah status. "If the might of the US military married to the might of the Israeli Defense Forces couldn't crack the Iranian regime in five months, what makes them think they're going to crack it in 5 years?" Sanctions didn't stop them. Strikes didn't stop them. Now they're cashing in. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

96,026 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce

French Presidential Candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Iran: What are we going there for? To liberate the Strait of Hormuz? It's not the Iranians who are blocking the Strait — it's their territory. They're not blocking themselves, they're blocking others. And they're being blocked by others. Never forget that.
0:38

French Presidential Candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Iran: What are we going there for? To liberate the Strait of Hormuz? It's not the Iranians who are blocking the Strait — it's their territory. They're not blocking themselves, they're blocking others. And they're being blocked by others. Never forget that.

Clash Report

19,510 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸 The 3 most dangerous conflicts on earth are being handled by real estate developers on cell phones. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says "I feel like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. I can't run, I can't hide, and I can't make it stop." If Iran broke one presidency in 1979, it can break another one now. Aaron David Miller
0:56

🇺🇸 The 3 most dangerous conflicts on earth are being handled by real estate developers on cell phones. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says "I feel like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. I can't run, I can't hide, and I can't make it stop." If Iran broke one presidency in 1979, it can break another one now. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

87,714 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller
5:05

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

48,916 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller
3:39

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

63,102 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller
3:44

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,203 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller
3:51

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

69,209 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

Larry C. Johnson: “If there's another strike on Iran, They are going to hit U.S. facilities immediately.” “Iran is now far better prepared to deal with a U.S. or Israeli attack that they were back on June 12th” “This time they're going to close the Strait of Hormuz. 72% of OPEC oil comes out of the Persian Gulf..”
2:54

Larry C. Johnson: “If there's another strike on Iran, They are going to hit U.S. facilities immediately.” “Iran is now far better prepared to deal with a U.S. or Israeli attack that they were back on June 12th” “This time they're going to close the Strait of Hormuz. 72% of OPEC oil comes out of the Persian Gulf..”

The Resonance

48,664 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller
2:51

🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

66,695 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller
2:36

🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

92,789 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller
10:44

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

28,657 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸 Every war since World War II has left the United States weaker, not stronger. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says this one is no different, and the damage goes deeper than politics. "The last 3 years have seen the United States, including with this war, fundamentally undermine international law." When realpolitik replaces morality, the costs show up not only on election night. They show up in history. Aaron David Miller
1:45

🇺🇸 Every war since World War II has left the United States weaker, not stronger. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says this one is no different, and the damage goes deeper than politics. "The last 3 years have seen the United States, including with this war, fundamentally undermine international law." When realpolitik replaces morality, the costs show up not only on election night. They show up in history. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

29,335 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller
2:43

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

39,714 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller
7:54

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

66,559 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce