The device that Sam Altman and Jony Ive is building. I lay out why it will make Apple far less relevant in our lives. And I didn't even go into the medical impact of this. Thanks Spark Lingonberry and Kevin Fischer, among many others working in augmented reality and... robotics, for the inspiration.show more

ChatGPT wrote up an article based on an earlier version of this that I did when my Tesla drove me home: Here’s your expanded long-form feature piece, now enriched with context, research, and forward-looking thinking. Hope it hits the futurist sweet spot—insightful, grounded, and packed with storytelling energy: ⸻ The AI-Powered Home: Who Will Win the Next Decade? 1. The Home as the Final Frontier of Tech Control Over the next decade—and possibly even within the next three years—the home will become the most contested battlefield in consumer technology. But this isn’t about flashy gadgets or smart speakers: it’s about who ultimately controls the digital intelligence woven into every corner of our lives. Apple currently dominates the room. Its iPhones and iPads are daily essentials; Macs quietly anchor home offices and kitchen-built desks; Apple TV powers entertainment; HomePod anchors audio. That’s a formidable foundation. Internal upgrades like on-device Apple Intelligence—now powering features like Live Translation and visual intelligence across iPhone, iPad, Mac, Watch, and Vision Pro—add nuance, responsiveness, and privacy to that ecosystem . Rumors suggest Apple may be gearing up to release AI-enabled home hardware: a tabletop robot companion, a smart camera, a smart speaker with a display, and even a hybrid HomePod-iPad device running a “homeOS”    . Delays into 2026 may push the timeline, but this signals an ecosystem-lock-in play—pair hardware, AI, and subscriptions to redefine how consumers interact with the space they live in  . 2. The New Players and Tech Shifts Rising But Apple’s not the only one in the arena: •Google’s revived smart home push: Starting October 1, 2025, Google will roll out Gemini—the AI assistant replacing Google Assistant on Home and Nest devices—with more natural voice control and smarter scene handling   . •SwitchBot’s AI Hub: This “local-first” AI platform brings visual recognition and automation together—think triggering routines when a camera sees a fallen person, or object-based video search. It’s a glimpse at autonomy meeting privacy head-on . •Samsung, LG, and big appliance makers: At CES 2025 and IFA Berlin, companies like Samsung and LG teased AI-smart appliances—fridges that track food, ovens that auto-set cook times, and combined washer-vacuum robots built for efficiency and sustainability  . Roborock unveiled a compact AI-powered washer-dryer-vacuum combo designed for smaller homes . 3. Domains of Differentiation These companies are staking claims on different playfields: •Privacy and Local AI: SwitchBot’s approach and Apple’s on-device intelligence stack signal a shift from cloud-first AI to trusted, private experiences. •Interoperability via Matter: The Matter standard—backed by Apple, Google, Samsung, and others—promises device compatibility across ecosystems, with local control and ease of use as priorities . •Ambient, anticipatory intelligence: At IFA 2025, experts showcased AI systems moving beyond reactive automation toward what they termed “ambient computing”—homes that predictively light, manage devices, and simplify complex tasks . Outside the trade shows, projections see AI evolving into emotionally intuitive “hyper-personal assistants” by 2035, coordinating our lives with empathy and long-term memory . 4. Market Momentum Numbers suggest this isn’t hype—it’s a multi-trillion-dollar transformation: •Global smart home market: Expected to hit $135 billion in 2025 . •AI-driven smart home tech: Growing from $15.3 billion in 2024 to an estimated $104.1 billion by 2034, at 21.3% CAGR . •CES projections: In 2025 exhibitor themes framed the smart home sector as a trillion-plus opportunity—$2.17 trillion was invoked at CES . 5. Risks, Ethics, and Cultural Tensions The stakes include more than revenue: •Ethical and privacy design: Recent academic work points to critical challenges around fairness, transparency, accountability, user autonomy, and explainability in AI home systems . •Infrastructure and reliability: Tech still needs to be dependable. Edge-AI helps—but sensors, hardware, and software must deliver consistent performance to earn trust . •Consumer fatigue and “tech-free” resistance: Some users are pushing back, carving out “tech-free zones” or homes entirely unplugged from smart systems . 6. Future Scenarios Key pivot points over the next decade: 1.Will we shift from reactive voice commands to ambient, predictive AI across home domains? 2.Can ecosystems balance interoperability (via Matter) with deep brand-specific services? 3.Will ethical design assert itself as a core advantage, not just a checklist? will business models evolve—subscription AI agents, device analytics, e-commerce integration? 7. The Final Takedown The home becomes a stage for more than convenience. It’s where data, relationships, infrastructure, and behavior intersect. Apple leads—with a coherent ecosystem and on-device AI—yet Google pushes a comeback, startups like SwitchBot innovate privacy-first automation, and appliance giants infuse intelligence into everyday machines. This fight won’t be decided by any single product launch. It depends on which players unlock smarter, more trustworthy, anticipatory homes—and who earns our confidence over time through security, empathy, and seamless experience. In the end, the next three years may set the tone, but the decade ahead will rewrite how we live. ⸻ Let me know if you’d like a sidebar profile of SwitchBot’s AI Hub, or a timeline of major launches!

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Pretty sure it’s a Segway

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Not even close. Segway could only be used in cities and was very expensive. This can be used in home and will be cheap and will make everything in the home better.

I don’t see an AI puck as that much of a game changer. First, anything it can do can be done by an app on the smartphone. Just take out your smartphone. The cameras can be used too. The home systems can be controlled by the smartphone. Jony will never get rid of displays. People are visual creatures. The 2 biggest hits in AI this year have been the ChatGPT image generator along with Google’s Nano Banana. Both of these are visual tools.

The cameras aren’t aimed anywhere useful. You haven’t thought through the thing nearly enough

Perhaps not. But where would the cameras be on a small puck like device? There is no omniscient camera setup. Then there’s the hit to battery life if one is recording all of the time. A smaller device means smaller battery. IMHO the form factor that would work best in recording what one actually sees and does are eye glasses, because then the camera is always pointed at what one is looking at. If one is getting data from installed home monitor cameras then that too can be processed on a smartphone.

It doesn’t need to run the cameras unless it needs to see. The cameras would see in all directions. You haven’t really thought through 360 degree cameras nearly enough. It won’t matter. The device will be here soon enough.

Sorry if I am not getting it. A 360 degree camera is either a series of cameras placed around 360 degrees or a camera that rotates 360 degrees. The hardware still has to be there. And how would any system know when to run a camera without receiving some input from either the camera or some other powered sensor? The hardware issues still have to be solved. I do eagerly await the future products.

@Scobleizer

@Scobleizer So you have a camera with fish eye lens mounted on the ceiling. Great. Then it can integrate with your smartphone for any AI functionality. Why the need for a little puck or any other device?

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer 👌agreed on this. Plus, the downward pressure is gonna cause Apple to make changes they’ve been reluctant to and hopefully start innovating again instead of following.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Nah once a big company gets to this place they usually just follow. Innovating requires getting free of existing customers.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer lol well I guess I’m thankful we still have startup power energy here in the face of these behemoths then. 🔥

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer I like watching your videos Robert. You have a very good taste for future tech. The tech version of Rick Rubin

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Alexa. Make a psychological assessment of everybody in the household and report that to the local police. Thanks.

I’m buying whatever Jony & Sam release. If it does anything close to what you’re imagining, it’s a game-changer for sure!

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Grok :

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Wow, super interesting, Robert. Many great points highlighted!

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer @grok can you summarize the video?

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Noooo, I want funky cyberpunk goggles, not ambient invisible tech!

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer We will have frequent meetings. :-)

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Wow! This was incredibly insightful and has inspired me to think deeply now about this use case. We finally have small enough models that can do a lot of work on device and larger models to handle complex tasks. Thank you for sharing your experience.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer You always have the best knowledge on all this cool stuff.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer "Remember me" AI. It's about personal memeory for 1:1 relevant conversations anywhere anytime

Apple has a lot of health data from the Apple Watch. I've exported all my health data to ChatGPT and did a comprehensive analysis. Took 10 minutes, but it was very insightful. Imagine when this new AI device, in combination with your Apple health data, your diet, and other habits, can start to give you advice.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Very nice shirt Robert! 😎

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Good to see you on camera

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer No cures, no cheap assistants for the disabled, no material science breakthroughs. But an endless supply of gooner accessories. Truly visionary

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Wow!! Eye opener. Thanks Robert! X and it's ecosystem would also be a natural fit. ( Not all users but a good enough chunk)

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Hey @grok summarize the main points of this video

So, having built 360 tours in the past (I even did the first ever 360 baby announcement), I can tell you that 360 camera’s miss a ton of stuff. You’d basically have to put them on a stick in the middle of a room to have the best possible coverage. And once you think about this once outdoor, then the person who’s carrying the device around is always blocking half the view. Honestly, you’re making a great use-case for smart-glasses. Those will see 180 degrees, but we move so much, that not only do we see all 360 degrees around us, changing our location makes for a way better world map than any stationary device. You’ll need twenty 360 camera devices to map your entire house, and then still you haven’t seen as much as 2-3 smart-glass users will have seen, no? And the benefit of smart-glasses: it can add a visual layer if needed. Don’t get me wrong, your insights here are great. But aren’t you minimising the power of being able to visualise things in our physical world? Which is a smart-glasses feature?

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Yes. I will do it. So will a growing niche.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Was going to watch this video on the X TV app. But I guess @X no longer aspire to be the best video platform. @Scobleizer Please consider releasing this on YouTube.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Thanks Robert for revealing this

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Wait a second? Is that normal? How did you know that salmon in my freezer is covering the hamburger? 🤨

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Thanks for the insight, however it seems like 95% of what you’re talking about hardware wise is already covered by phones. Just use voice mode. Smart home control, better memory, virtual companions, etc. are software not hardware. Phones have cameras. Is 360 the only new feature?

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Phones can’t see in all directions. Doesn’t work for everything I laid out

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer I estimate that at about 5% of your use cases because you can just point your phone at things. Vision in multiple directions at the same time seems like a very narrow use case. I don’t think people want to spend hundreds of dollars and carry an additional pocket device for that.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Just watch. The phone can’t. I have tried. Washing dishes? The camera is aimed at the ceiling. Plus people don’t know where to aim the camera. Or have their hands full.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Hands full is the same problem to get the camera in a position where it has line of sight to what you're doing, especially if you're not at a fixed location but walking around somewhere. It does have some use cases, but I see those as extremely limited, not enough to justify it.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer The main thing aside from the privacy Is the Data This has to be local Each its own independent Data hub If it's cloud then it has flaws This can't be Cloud based to fully have Trust IMO

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer You know that isn’t going to happen.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer One can Dream lol

@kymcoffey @sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Another great video. AI devices are coming.

Great video. However it seems to me like the glasses will do 99% of this, plus incorporate a display. And if the glasses want to see something like the inside of your refrigerator, they can ask you to peak in there. Plus, if everyone is wearing the glasses, they can talk to each-other and share all the angles.

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer 🌐 360⁰ cameras see Everything Which, just happens to be great, for building Ai World Models 😉 and key, to unlocking... 😱 LIVE TelePresence ! 🌎

Maybe that’s where Humane AI missed their opportunity aggregating other services and products, anyway…. I do like the idea of giving AI access to my ring camera and give instructions on whether to report to me about all activities it sees or a specific instructions, where I tell it to look for that fucking dog that’s been shitting on my yard and alert me when it arrives. Or weather, anytime the Ai observe rain just let me know. I don’t know if such a device could compete with Apple, but it will be interesting to observe.

great video, lots of insight into the near future and beyond. thanks for sharing this. do you see this perhaps evolving into an "ALL-IN-ONE" Device? Does the phone need to be shaped and look like an iphone? we have screens that bend now and can be shaped, i like the forearm band idea. And cant the device take your calls as well and patch you through? What if we gave our AI assistants phone numbers to use too?

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer Yes.

Spot on that OpenAI's customers would be the most ready to adopt this type of AI ambient computing device, as they already trust them with their personal information and have experienced the benefits of giving ChatGPT all that data. Samsung actually has a lot of privacy concerns about their upcoming always-on AI-powered home companion robot, causing them to delay its release. Ballie was supposed to come out this summer and has been ready to enter mass production since the spring but was delayed again.

This sounds exciting, revolutionary, and more then a little frightening. If the camera also operates in the IR for night time, it could also be a real security breakthrough. I wonder how it would work off the grid while back country hiking or hunting or something. If something like this takes off, will the current output of GPUs be enough to support millions of these being on 24/7?

@sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer It could do a lot of the work locally. But yeah inference is constrained. Will be interesting to see how they solve that