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"The fact that we're debating whether it's a bubble means it's a bubble" Kirk McKeown — ex-Head of Proprietary Research at Point72, previously Glenview & Tudor. He explains: "The fact that we're debating about a bubble means there's a bubble." "If people are trying to explain away a bubble,... there's a bubble. It's that simple." "History rhymes because people are animals. Animals do the same thing over and over expecting a different result." "It happens when the people doing it this time weren't around last time. So they forget." "World War II was supposed to be the war to end all wars. There's probably other wars that had that same label." "When I look at the AI economy, I look back to quant on Wall Street. This has already happened." "Everything that happened on Wall Street is going to happen on Main Street."show more

Ethan Kho

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79,906 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

WOLF

183,702 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Ray Dalio on the AI bubble: "this is about 80% into a bubble - that 100% would have been 1929 and 2000" this is him - the Bridgewater founder - reading the AI melt-up against 500 years of bubbles "there's definitely a bubble in the markets" "isn't it amazing? we're talking about one stock for the stock market bubble" "General Electric and RCA - those companies went down 90%, not because of the economy - the bubble burst first because they needed cash" "the need for cash is always that which pricks the bubble" bookmark & watch today ↓

Ray Dalio on the AI bubble: "this is about 80% into a bubble - that 100% would have been 1929 and 2000" this is him - the Bridgewater founder - reading the AI melt-up against 500 years of bubbles "there's definitely a bubble in the markets" "isn't it amazing? we're talking about one stock for the stock market bubble" "General Electric and RCA - those companies went down 90%, not because of the economy - the bubble burst first because they needed cash" "the need for cash is always that which pricks the bubble" bookmark & watch today ↓

st1ne

101,024 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce

Linus Torvalds, creator of Linux, on why AI is both a bubble and a revolution at the same time: His answer refuses the binary, laying out why both things can be true at once: "I mean, clearly, it's clearly both, right? It's clearly a bubble and at the same time, it's very interesting and I think it will change society and I think it will change how most skilled jobs get done." But he pushes back on the maximalist framing: "At the same time, I don't think it's as revolutionary as people make it out to be." When asked about artists being angry that AI models were trained on their work without consent, Linus is blunt: "That's reality. Deal with it. That genie is out of the bottle. You're not getting it back. And you're not getting it back whether you are a photographer who's out of work… or you're a programmer that has to learn to deal with a new reality." On programming specifically, he's more optimistic, though he has a sharp caveat about vibe coding: "I really think that AI will be a tool and it will make people more productive. I think that vibe coding is great for getting into programming. I think it's going to be a horrible thing to maintain." His conclusion is that programmers aren't going anywhere: "You still want to have the people who know how to maintain the end result." Linus separates the technology from the noise around it: "I'm a huge believer in AI. I'm not a huge believer in the whole things going on around AI. I find the marketing and the market to be sick and twisted and there is going to be a crash and it's not… it's going to be ugly."

Linus Torvalds, creator of Linux, on why AI is both a bubble and a revolution at the same time: His answer refuses the binary, laying out why both things can be true at once: "I mean, clearly, it's clearly both, right? It's clearly a bubble and at the same time, it's very interesting and I think it will change society and I think it will change how most skilled jobs get done." But he pushes back on the maximalist framing: "At the same time, I don't think it's as revolutionary as people make it out to be." When asked about artists being angry that AI models were trained on their work without consent, Linus is blunt: "That's reality. Deal with it. That genie is out of the bottle. You're not getting it back. And you're not getting it back whether you are a photographer who's out of work… or you're a programmer that has to learn to deal with a new reality." On programming specifically, he's more optimistic, though he has a sharp caveat about vibe coding: "I really think that AI will be a tool and it will make people more productive. I think that vibe coding is great for getting into programming. I think it's going to be a horrible thing to maintain." His conclusion is that programmers aren't going anywhere: "You still want to have the people who know how to maintain the end result." Linus separates the technology from the noise around it: "I'm a huge believer in AI. I'm not a huge believer in the whole things going on around AI. I find the marketing and the market to be sick and twisted and there is going to be a crash and it's not… it's going to be ugly."

Big Brain AI

52,726 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Mark Levin tells "those in Washington who are in a bubble" that Americans are clamoring for the Iran War to continue. "I have better access to the public—you—than most people do." "It's victory that you wanted!" The "Woke Right" should be blamed for our "forever wars," Levin says, because they don't want to "end this once and for all" (i.e., wage total war on Iran for Israel).

Mark Levin tells "those in Washington who are in a bubble" that Americans are clamoring for the Iran War to continue. "I have better access to the public—you—than most people do." "It's victory that you wanted!" The "Woke Right" should be blamed for our "forever wars," Levin says, because they don't want to "end this once and for all" (i.e., wage total war on Iran for Israel).

Chris Menahan 🇺🇸

1,110,580 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Be for real right now, are you COMPLETELY over the Battle Bus Victory Royale in Fortnite? This thing has to go. It's beyond annoying now. Even with the friendship bubble people are STILL toxic and just shockwave each other out. Unless they can make it so you can't shock people out and there's a permanent friendship bubble around it I want it out of the game. Don't you miss a good old fashioned battle royale ending to a match?

Be for real right now, are you COMPLETELY over the Battle Bus Victory Royale in Fortnite? This thing has to go. It's beyond annoying now. Even with the friendship bubble people are STILL toxic and just shockwave each other out. Unless they can make it so you can't shock people out and there's a permanent friendship bubble around it I want it out of the game. Don't you miss a good old fashioned battle royale ending to a match?

Quantum Camper

22,294 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Mark Cuban watching AI repeat the exact same pattern as dot com bubble: "if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts" this is him explaining why he thinks most VCs and funds are about to get wiped out, why CEOs have no idea what's coming, and what the dot-com bubble taught him about what happens when everyone prices to perfection "it's not the traditional dot-com bubble - but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE - because they're going all in" "CEOs have no clue what is going on with AI - none whatsoever - and that's not going to change" "every single business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Mark Cuban watching AI repeat the exact same pattern as dot com bubble: "if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts" this is him explaining why he thinks most VCs and funds are about to get wiped out, why CEOs have no idea what's coming, and what the dot-com bubble taught him about what happens when everyone prices to perfection "it's not the traditional dot-com bubble - but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE - because they're going all in" "CEOs have no clue what is going on with AI - none whatsoever - and that's not going to change" "every single business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

691,834 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

"You know, the two state solution is an absurd notion. It's a Zionist idea. There's a reason why it's a Zionist idea. Because it allows the Zionists to continue to control Palestine...to keep Israelis living in some kind of a bubble-- some kind of a privileged bubble within Palestine, You know, the whole thing falls apart once you start analyzing this idea, this notion that this is somehow a solution. The reality is there's a single state over all of Palestine, it's the apartheid state of Israel." - Miko Peled

"You know, the two state solution is an absurd notion. It's a Zionist idea. There's a reason why it's a Zionist idea. Because it allows the Zionists to continue to control Palestine...to keep Israelis living in some kind of a bubble-- some kind of a privileged bubble within Palestine, You know, the whole thing falls apart once you start analyzing this idea, this notion that this is somehow a solution. The reality is there's a single state over all of Palestine, it's the apartheid state of Israel." - Miko Peled

Briahna Joy Gray

122,001 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The only personal edge that doesn't decay: a corpus of knowledge you built yourself. Got this from Kirk McKeown, ex-Point72 Head of Prop Research who worked alongside Steve Cohen. "You want to get it right, not be right." "Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way." "History rhymes because people are animals. They do the same thing over and over expecting a different result." "Reading a book. Having these conversations. That's the competitive advantage. Not asking a chatbot." The irony: in an AI world, the edge goes to whoever puts in the most analog reps.

The only personal edge that doesn't decay: a corpus of knowledge you built yourself. Got this from Kirk McKeown, ex-Point72 Head of Prop Research who worked alongside Steve Cohen. "You want to get it right, not be right." "Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way." "History rhymes because people are animals. They do the same thing over and over expecting a different result." "Reading a book. Having these conversations. That's the competitive advantage. Not asking a chatbot." The irony: in an AI world, the edge goes to whoever puts in the most analog reps.

Ethan Kho

174,348 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Gilbert Arenas says calling LeBron James and the Lakers 2020 championship, the Mickey Mouse championship is the weirdest thing: “Because every star started in the bubble. Devin Booker was phenomenal in the bubble. Giannis showed who he was becoming in the bubble. Jokic got defeated in the bubble and he’s been the MVP or the runner MVP for six straight years since that bubble. Luka’s terror against the Clippers started in that bubble. Murray and Mitchell bubble. Jimmy Butler, right? This is where that all that was created. So to say the bubble was this Mickey Mouse chip. It just shows you how great I look at it like this. The harder they hate, the greater you are.” (Via Gilbert Arenas)

Gilbert Arenas says calling LeBron James and the Lakers 2020 championship, the Mickey Mouse championship is the weirdest thing: “Because every star started in the bubble. Devin Booker was phenomenal in the bubble. Giannis showed who he was becoming in the bubble. Jokic got defeated in the bubble and he’s been the MVP or the runner MVP for six straight years since that bubble. Luka’s terror against the Clippers started in that bubble. Murray and Mitchell bubble. Jimmy Butler, right? This is where that all that was created. So to say the bubble was this Mickey Mouse chip. It just shows you how great I look at it like this. The harder they hate, the greater you are.” (Via Gilbert Arenas)

NBA Courtside

896,751 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Brad Gerstner on 1999/2025 “dark fiber” bubble comparisons: “There are no dark GPUs.” “Everybody's looking for the bubble.” “We've got this pattern recognition, everybody's like, ‘It's dark fiber. It's gotta be dark fiber. There's no way that you can 10x your revenues at Nvidia without it being a bubble.’ But the reality today is Nvidia trades at a lower p/e multiple than it did when it was $200/share.” “Think about what the term dark fiber means. We were laying fiber in the ground that remained dark. We did not have the demand for the fiber.” “There is not a dark GPU in the world today. There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next year.” “The tokens are being consumed. Every consumer in the world wants answers, they don't want to use 10 blue links.” “Every enterprise wants to deploy this to make their enterprise better.” “National sovereigns want to do this in order to advance their military and other things.” “There's no dark GPUs in the world today.” Brad Gerstner

Brad Gerstner on 1999/2025 “dark fiber” bubble comparisons: “There are no dark GPUs.” “Everybody's looking for the bubble.” “We've got this pattern recognition, everybody's like, ‘It's dark fiber. It's gotta be dark fiber. There's no way that you can 10x your revenues at Nvidia without it being a bubble.’ But the reality today is Nvidia trades at a lower p/e multiple than it did when it was $200/share.” “Think about what the term dark fiber means. We were laying fiber in the ground that remained dark. We did not have the demand for the fiber.” “There is not a dark GPU in the world today. There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next year.” “The tokens are being consumed. Every consumer in the world wants answers, they don't want to use 10 blue links.” “Every enterprise wants to deploy this to make their enterprise better.” “National sovereigns want to do this in order to advance their military and other things.” “There's no dark GPUs in the world today.” Brad Gerstner

The All-In Podcast

174,963 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Trump: This is something they called me up from Wall Street. The most brilliant people they call me up had it. Where do you think of that? Sounds simple, right. But it's not so simple. I always say it's like the paper clip, you know, some guy 129 years ago, he came up, he took a little piece of stuff and he went away all of a sudden he is the paper clip. He made a fortune, people look at it, they say why didn't I think of that? This is the same thing (???)

Trump: This is something they called me up from Wall Street. The most brilliant people they call me up had it. Where do you think of that? Sounds simple, right. But it's not so simple. I always say it's like the paper clip, you know, some guy 129 years ago, he came up, he took a little piece of stuff and he went away all of a sudden he is the paper clip. He made a fortune, people look at it, they say why didn't I think of that? This is the same thing (???)

Headquarters

370,831 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Arteta on the moment he believed it was going to happen: “It's been so many, probably I need a bit more time to reflect on that, and we have so many, so much footage that probably will explain the story of the season. “One of the main ones, it was a meeting that we had here next to the tree when I got all the players together and I told them, look at each other, look at the squad that we built over the summer. I think we are capable of everything and we can be very, very good. “That only depends on us and on our behaviours and everybody understanding the role that it's going to have daily or on the day. to give the best for the team. Once they realised that, I think we went to a different level, because you've seen the impact that everybody's had in different moments of games, through the season, and the capacity that we have shown to adapt to very, very tough circumstances throughout the season.”

Arteta on the moment he believed it was going to happen: “It's been so many, probably I need a bit more time to reflect on that, and we have so many, so much footage that probably will explain the story of the season. “One of the main ones, it was a meeting that we had here next to the tree when I got all the players together and I told them, look at each other, look at the squad that we built over the summer. I think we are capable of everything and we can be very, very good. “That only depends on us and on our behaviours and everybody understanding the role that it's going to have daily or on the day. to give the best for the team. Once they realised that, I think we went to a different level, because you've seen the impact that everybody's had in different moments of games, through the season, and the capacity that we have shown to adapt to very, very tough circumstances throughout the season.”

Connor Humm

246,421 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

.President Donald J. Trump: "We're going to look into Soros because I think it's a RICO case against him and other people because this is more than protests. This is real agitation; this is riots on the street — and we're going to look into that."

.President Donald J. Trump: "We're going to look into Soros because I think it's a RICO case against him and other people because this is more than protests. This is real agitation; this is riots on the street — and we're going to look into that."

Rapid Response 47

992,360 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."

Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."

Patrick OShaughnessy

543,114 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.

Acyn

74,258 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

The next 12-15 years is gonna be a massive transfer of wealth to the younger generation and when that happens, there's estate tax, so a portion of that's going back to the government. I consider that unfair because you've already been taxed on it multiple times, so why tax on death makes no sense to me. An interesting stat about this is that it only takes three generations to basically lose that wealth. The people that make it, covet it, understand it, manage it, think it's very important, but people that are given wealth, they squander it, and I think that's a remarkable thing. It finds its way back in the economy.

The next 12-15 years is gonna be a massive transfer of wealth to the younger generation and when that happens, there's estate tax, so a portion of that's going back to the government. I consider that unfair because you've already been taxed on it multiple times, so why tax on death makes no sense to me. An interesting stat about this is that it only takes three generations to basically lose that wealth. The people that make it, covet it, understand it, manage it, think it's very important, but people that are given wealth, they squander it, and I think that's a remarkable thing. It finds its way back in the economy.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

112,307 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Roblox responds to the claims that the people who say, "How is this allowed on Roblox..." They say that if other platforms allow it, then that means that they are at a very high standard when it comes to their policy, and that it's "ironic"

Roblox responds to the claims that the people who say, "How is this allowed on Roblox..." They say that if other platforms allow it, then that means that they are at a very high standard when it comes to their policy, and that it's "ironic"

Sniter

166,673 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce