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"The fact that we're debating whether it's a bubble means it's a bubble" Kirk McKeown — ex-Head of Proprietary Research at Point72, previously Glenview & Tudor. He explains: "The fact that we're debating about a bubble means there's a bubble." "If people are trying to explain away a bubble,... there's a bubble. It's that simple." "History rhymes because people are animals. Animals do the same thing over and over expecting a different result." "It happens when the people doing it this time weren't around last time. So they forget." "World War II was supposed to be the war to end all wars. There's probably other wars that had that same label." "When I look at the AI economy, I look back to quant on Wall Street. This has already happened." "Everything that happened on Wall Street is going to happen on Main Street."show more

Ethan Kho

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79,906 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Trump: This is something they called me up from Wall Street. The most brilliant people they call me up had it. Where do you think of that? Sounds simple, right. But it's not so simple. I always say it's like the paper clip, you know, some guy 129 years ago, he came up, he took a little piece of stuff and he went away all of a sudden he is the paper clip. He made a fortune, people look at it, they say why didn't I think of that? This is the same thing (???)

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Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."

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