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The fund Nassim Taleb advises returned 4,144% in a single quarter - while the S&P 500 was crashing "A high Sharpe ratio is the best indicator of a bankruptcy of a fund." Correlation, standard deviation, portfolio theory - in a fat-tailed world Taleb says they don't just fail, they... show more

0xDipper

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95,591 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Mark Spitznagel - founder of Universa, the "black swan" fund Nassim Taleb advises - on the most counterintuitive idea in investing: add a 3% sliver of crash insurance to a stock portfolio. give that insurance a 0% expected return - it makes nothing over time. it still raises the portfolio's long-run compound return - by roughly what you'd get from putting that same 3% into an asset returning 20%+ a year. how? by killing the deep drawdowns that quietly destroy compounding. but the insurance has to actually fire in a crash. one that only sometimes pays out is "like a parachute that only sometimes deploys - you're better off not wearing one." most "safe havens" - gold, the dollar, hedge funds, even a Picasso - fail that test. ~13-min talk, free. the man who made ~4,000% in the 2020 crash, on what actually protects you ↓

Mark Spitznagel - founder of Universa, the "black swan" fund Nassim Taleb advises - on the most counterintuitive idea in investing: add a 3% sliver of crash insurance to a stock portfolio. give that insurance a 0% expected return - it makes nothing over time. it still raises the portfolio's long-run compound return - by roughly what you'd get from putting that same 3% into an asset returning 20%+ a year. how? by killing the deep drawdowns that quietly destroy compounding. but the insurance has to actually fire in a crash. one that only sometimes pays out is "like a parachute that only sometimes deploys - you're better off not wearing one." most "safe havens" - gold, the dollar, hedge funds, even a Picasso - fail that test. ~13-min talk, free. the man who made ~4,000% in the 2020 crash, on what actually protects you ↓

0xDipper

199,042 次观看 • 1 个月前

ex-Citadel portfolio manager, just explained why almost every fund actually blows up. "90% of hedge fund failures, PM failures, analyst failures, it's bad portfolio construction, sizing, all those things." the logic: alpha is competitive. one good idea barely moves the needle, because the moment you build a book, correlation starts eating you. "any amount of correlation in a portfolio drags your sharpe ratio toward the market's." and the market's sharpe you can buy for free from Vanguard. so the entire game collapses to two things: generate a positive hit rate across enough independent bets, and kill the correlation between them. the funds that survive run 80-90% of their risk in idiosyncratic, stock-specific bets. only 10-20% is allowed to be factor exposure. and they treat every factor bet, momentum, crowding, "long the AI trade", like a single stock position, with the same hard limits and the same diligence. the ones who blow up almost always had the ideas. they just leaked P&L on risk they never meant to take. "what they got wrong was risk and portfolio construction." clip from "Odds on Open"

ex-Citadel portfolio manager, just explained why almost every fund actually blows up. "90% of hedge fund failures, PM failures, analyst failures, it's bad portfolio construction, sizing, all those things." the logic: alpha is competitive. one good idea barely moves the needle, because the moment you build a book, correlation starts eating you. "any amount of correlation in a portfolio drags your sharpe ratio toward the market's." and the market's sharpe you can buy for free from Vanguard. so the entire game collapses to two things: generate a positive hit rate across enough independent bets, and kill the correlation between them. the funds that survive run 80-90% of their risk in idiosyncratic, stock-specific bets. only 10-20% is allowed to be factor exposure. and they treat every factor bet, momentum, crowding, "long the AI trade", like a single stock position, with the same hard limits and the same diligence. the ones who blow up almost always had the ideas. they just leaked P&L on risk they never meant to take. "what they got wrong was risk and portfolio construction." clip from "Odds on Open"

Goshawk Trades

39,360 次观看 • 1 个月前

In 2018, Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave a 61-min masterclass on why systems fail when decision-makers don't share the downside. 685K views. His frameworks: - No downside, no discipline - Moral hazard with better branding - Fragility hides in incentives 12 insights: 🧵

In 2018, Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave a 61-min masterclass on why systems fail when decision-makers don't share the downside. 685K views. His frameworks: - No downside, no discipline - Moral hazard with better branding - Fragility hides in incentives 12 insights: 🧵

andrew engler

108,989 次观看 • 3 个月前

Nassim Taleb ran a simple test: take two completely random, unrelated columns of numbers - noise, nothing else - and measure their correlation. with a small sample, you'll routinely see correlations of 0.4, 0.6, even higher. from pure randomness. now the trap. give a researcher many variables and few data points - say 38 variables, 18 points each, which he says is far more common than you'd think - and let them hunt for the highest correlation. they'll always find a "strong" one. it means nothing. it's just the max of a pile of noise. "when you hear the word correlation, be suspicious." by his estimate, about half of published research is nonsense for exactly this reason. ~14-min talk, free. Taleb on the number that fools almost everyone ↓

Nassim Taleb ran a simple test: take two completely random, unrelated columns of numbers - noise, nothing else - and measure their correlation. with a small sample, you'll routinely see correlations of 0.4, 0.6, even higher. from pure randomness. now the trap. give a researcher many variables and few data points - say 38 variables, 18 points each, which he says is far more common than you'd think - and let them hunt for the highest correlation. they'll always find a "strong" one. it means nothing. it's just the max of a pile of noise. "when you hear the word correlation, be suspicious." by his estimate, about half of published research is nonsense for exactly this reason. ~14-min talk, free. Taleb on the number that fools almost everyone ↓

0xDipper

174,392 次观看 • 1 个月前

Nassim Taleb asked a room full of quants: to trust an average, a normal bell curve needs ~30 data points. how many does an 80/20 "fat-tailed" world need? people guessed 200. 1,000. the real answer: 100 trillion. that's 10¹⁴ - because in fat-tailed data, one rare event dwarfs everything else, and until it shows up your sample is a lie. "you observe, you observe, you observe… until the crash." worse, the deception only runs one way. a wild distribution can disguise itself as calm - a calm one can't fake being wild. so the data almost always fools you downward, into thinking there's less risk than there is. the fix: stop estimating the average from the average. it doesn't work where it matters. ~25-min talk, free. Taleb on why your data is quietly lying about risk ↓

Nassim Taleb asked a room full of quants: to trust an average, a normal bell curve needs ~30 data points. how many does an 80/20 "fat-tailed" world need? people guessed 200. 1,000. the real answer: 100 trillion. that's 10¹⁴ - because in fat-tailed data, one rare event dwarfs everything else, and until it shows up your sample is a lie. "you observe, you observe, you observe… until the crash." worse, the deception only runs one way. a wild distribution can disguise itself as calm - a calm one can't fake being wild. so the data almost always fools you downward, into thinking there's less risk than there is. the fix: stop estimating the average from the average. it doesn't work where it matters. ~25-min talk, free. Taleb on why your data is quietly lying about risk ↓

0xDipper

203,816 次观看 • 1 个月前

Nassim Taleb, options trader and author of "The Black Swan": "Wall Street pays $500K for a five-year track record. I traded options for two decades and watched records like that vanish in a single afternoon." the article above is about telling a real edge from luck. taleb built his whole career and his books on one warning: a track record is the weakest evidence there is. a trader can win every single day for years and still be sitting on a hidden risk. the five good years don't prove skill, they just haven't met the one bad day yet. that is the entire "fooled by randomness" trap, dressed up as a resume. and you only ever see the survivors. for every rich trader with a spotless record, thousands ran the same reckless bet and quietly blew up. the graveyard is silent, so the lucky fool looks like a genius. none of this is new, taleb has said it for 25 years and the talk is free. same point as my article: a winning streak is not evidence. here is the edge, and it isn't a hot record. it's surviving. sizing so your one bad day can't erase you, and staying skeptical of your own success while everyone else worships theirs.

Nassim Taleb, options trader and author of "The Black Swan": "Wall Street pays $500K for a five-year track record. I traded options for two decades and watched records like that vanish in a single afternoon." the article above is about telling a real edge from luck. taleb built his whole career and his books on one warning: a track record is the weakest evidence there is. a trader can win every single day for years and still be sitting on a hidden risk. the five good years don't prove skill, they just haven't met the one bad day yet. that is the entire "fooled by randomness" trap, dressed up as a resume. and you only ever see the survivors. for every rich trader with a spotless record, thousands ran the same reckless bet and quietly blew up. the graveyard is silent, so the lucky fool looks like a genius. none of this is new, taleb has said it for 25 years and the talk is free. same point as my article: a winning streak is not evidence. here is the edge, and it isn't a hot record. it's surviving. sizing so your one bad day can't erase you, and staying skeptical of your own success while everyone else worships theirs.

Rossst.03

77,501 次观看 • 1 个月前

BREAKING: quantitative algorithmic trading models are predicting a major S&P 500 Black swan event in the next 3 weeks. How to get a quant to be your fund manager...

BREAKING: quantitative algorithmic trading models are predicting a major S&P 500 Black swan event in the next 3 weeks. How to get a quant to be your fund manager...

Wall Street NYC Quant. bitcoin-fund-manager.com

913,248 次观看 • 5 个月前

Was yesterday's huge market sell-off, the worst day for the S&P 500 in nearly two years, a "Black Swan" event? @NNTaleb, who wrote "The Black Swan," says no.

Was yesterday's huge market sell-off, the worst day for the S&P 500 in nearly two years, a "Black Swan" event? @NNTaleb, who wrote "The Black Swan," says no.

Squawk Box

278,794 次观看 • 2 年前

Taleb: "standard deviation is not how much something moves on average." ask anyone - even statisticians, even government agencies - and that's exactly the wrong definition you'll get back. what they're describing is mean absolute deviation. real standard deviation squares the moves first - which quietly hands almost all the weight to the rare extremes. his demo: 1,000,000 numbers, all zero except one. mean deviation ≈ 2. standard deviation ≈ 1,000. same data, a 500× gap. ~10 min, free. why the risk metric everyone trusts falls apart on fat tails ↓

Taleb: "standard deviation is not how much something moves on average." ask anyone - even statisticians, even government agencies - and that's exactly the wrong definition you'll get back. what they're describing is mean absolute deviation. real standard deviation squares the moves first - which quietly hands almost all the weight to the rare extremes. his demo: 1,000,000 numbers, all zero except one. mean deviation ≈ 2. standard deviation ≈ 1,000. same data, a 500× gap. ~10 min, free. why the risk metric everyone trusts falls apart on fat tails ↓

0xDipper

412,164 次观看 • 1 个月前

USAID gave $68 million to the World Economic Forum, which grooms politicians they support in elections. These politicians then fund the WEF, creating a giant feedback loop.

USAID gave $68 million to the World Economic Forum, which grooms politicians they support in elections. These politicians then fund the WEF, creating a giant feedback loop.

Alex Jones

150,632 次观看 • 1 年前

8/ Dr. Jason Fung, MD, author of "The Cancer Code", agrees: Cancer isn’t just a genetic disease, it’s a disease of bioenergetics. Standard treatments often fail because they ignore the root cause: dysfunctional metabolism.

8/ Dr. Jason Fung, MD, author of "The Cancer Code", agrees: Cancer isn’t just a genetic disease, it’s a disease of bioenergetics. Standard treatments often fail because they ignore the root cause: dysfunctional metabolism.

Prince Fynn

78,449 次观看 • 1 年前

8/ Dr. Jason Fung, MD, author of "The Cancer Code", agrees: Cancer isn’t just a genetic disease, it’s a disease of bioenergetics. Standard treatments often fail because they ignore the root cause: dysfunctional metabolism.

8/ Dr. Jason Fung, MD, author of "The Cancer Code", agrees: Cancer isn’t just a genetic disease, it’s a disease of bioenergetics. Standard treatments often fail because they ignore the root cause: dysfunctional metabolism.

no.mind

823,337 次观看 • 1 年前

Nassim Taleb on Bitcoin, in his own words: "a business that will never make any money - and its only value is what you can sell it for to someone else." a Ponzi has no absorbing barrier. this does. "the minute it reaches a plateau, it's dead." gold doesn't die. you leave it in the dirt, it's still gold. "the only thing that is infallible is a deity." so if it can't fail - that's theology, not finance. ~13-min talk, free ↓

Nassim Taleb on Bitcoin, in his own words: "a business that will never make any money - and its only value is what you can sell it for to someone else." a Ponzi has no absorbing barrier. this does. "the minute it reaches a plateau, it's dead." gold doesn't die. you leave it in the dirt, it's still gold. "the only thing that is infallible is a deity." so if it can't fail - that's theology, not finance. ~13-min talk, free ↓

0xDipper

186,555 次观看 • 1 个月前

Nassim Taleb helps run one of the most famous crash funds on earth. His edge: having no idea what's coming He and Spitznagel buy far out-of-the-money options non-stop, regardless of the news. They never forecast the crash - they just stay positioned so one shock pays for years of small losses ~10% a year in normal times. ~3,700% in a single crisis month "We have absolutely no notion of the future. We just buy the options." "If you have a reason in mind to buy an option, don't - it'll already be priced in." "Up the escalator, down the elevator." ~25 min, free. how the world's most famous crash-trader actually makes money ↓

Nassim Taleb helps run one of the most famous crash funds on earth. His edge: having no idea what's coming He and Spitznagel buy far out-of-the-money options non-stop, regardless of the news. They never forecast the crash - they just stay positioned so one shock pays for years of small losses ~10% a year in normal times. ~3,700% in a single crisis month "We have absolutely no notion of the future. We just buy the options." "If you have a reason in mind to buy an option, don't - it'll already be priced in." "Up the escalator, down the elevator." ~25 min, free. how the world's most famous crash-trader actually makes money ↓

0xDipper

291,215 次观看 • 2 个月前

One of the best hedge fund managers of the last 30 years, Joel Greenblatt, earned over 40% a year for two decades. He found a serious flaw in ordinary indexes like the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000. Because of it, the indexes automatically buy too much of the overpriced stocks and too little of the cheap ones. In this video he reveals exactly what that flaw is. "The best mutual fund of the 2000s returned 18% a year. The average investor in that same fund lost 11% a year" "Why?" "Because every time the fund started to lag, people left. Every time the market fell, people left. And every time the fund did great, people piled in right after the run." Watch how the individual investor can beat the big players ↓

One of the best hedge fund managers of the last 30 years, Joel Greenblatt, earned over 40% a year for two decades. He found a serious flaw in ordinary indexes like the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000. Because of it, the indexes automatically buy too much of the overpriced stocks and too little of the cheap ones. In this video he reveals exactly what that flaw is. "The best mutual fund of the 2000s returned 18% a year. The average investor in that same fund lost 11% a year" "Why?" "Because every time the fund started to lag, people left. Every time the market fell, people left. And every time the fund did great, people piled in right after the run." Watch how the individual investor can beat the big players ↓

Damir Akaza

1,175,222 次观看 • 1 个月前

Diversify your portfolio with a single investment. Get the best of equity, debt and gold in one with Multi Asset Allocation fund. #3in1TohInvestmentDone

Diversify your portfolio with a single investment. Get the best of equity, debt and gold in one with Multi Asset Allocation fund. #3in1TohInvestmentDone

ABC - Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

21,623,213 次观看 • 3 年前

Nassim Taleb told a room full of fund managers: not one of you will ever get the returns of the market Two decades a trader before he touched theory - and his whole point is that survival, not return, is the game almost everyone misprices. "Take all the risk you can - but make sure you're in tomorrow" "You don't cross a river that's three feet deep on average" "Once you hit ruin, the casino's edge doesn't matter - you're gone" bookmark and watch it today - 39 minutes on ruin, paranoia, and why surviving beats being right ↓

Nassim Taleb told a room full of fund managers: not one of you will ever get the returns of the market Two decades a trader before he touched theory - and his whole point is that survival, not return, is the game almost everyone misprices. "Take all the risk you can - but make sure you're in tomorrow" "You don't cross a river that's three feet deep on average" "Once you hit ruin, the casino's edge doesn't matter - you're gone" bookmark and watch it today - 39 minutes on ruin, paranoia, and why surviving beats being right ↓

0xDipper

137,315 次观看 • 2 个月前

The long-threatened bankruptcy of Social Security is closing in, with just 6 years until benefits automatically cut by 25%. That's a monthly cut of $900 for a typical American couple. Here's how they built Social Security to fail.

The long-threatened bankruptcy of Social Security is closing in, with just 6 years until benefits automatically cut by 25%. That's a monthly cut of $900 for a typical American couple. Here's how they built Social Security to fail.

Peter St Onge, Ph.D.

328,086 次观看 • 4 个月前

'They fail, they give up, they leave and then can't get a good job.' A quarter of adults don't have their maths and English GCSEs, and caller David's experience as a teacher in a sixth form college has led him to the conclusion the system needs to be completely reformed.

'They fail, they give up, they leave and then can't get a good job.' A quarter of adults don't have their maths and English GCSEs, and caller David's experience as a teacher in a sixth form college has led him to the conclusion the system needs to be completely reformed.

LBC

49,486 次观看 • 2 个月前