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The most bullish Bitcoin chart is the one that keeps grinding higher while everyone stares at the spot price. The 4-year moving average of realized price is the market's smoothed cost basis. It is the slow, load-bearing floor under the entire asset, and it is still compounding at nearly...

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Adam Livingston

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50,617 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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If you get sad at Bitcoin's price going down, you are a high time preference little RAT. Bitcoin's 2-Year Moving Average, year by year: 2013: +1,393% 2014: +247% 2015: +10% 2016: +6% 2017: +442% 2018: +154% 2019: +29% 2020: +24% 2021: +216% 2022: +29% 2023: -25% 2024: +66% 2025: +77% One negative year in a decade and a half. The volatility is the toll. Up and to the right is the road.
0:41

If you get sad at Bitcoin's price going down, you are a high time preference little RAT. Bitcoin's 2-Year Moving Average, year by year: 2013: +1,393% 2014: +247% 2015: +10% 2016: +6% 2017: +442% 2018: +154% 2019: +29% 2020: +24% 2021: +216% 2022: +29% 2023: -25% 2024: +66% 2025: +77% One negative year in a decade and a half. The volatility is the toll. Up and to the right is the road.

Adam Livingston

52,130 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.
0:24

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.

Adam Livingston

111,280 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

🚨 WARNING: BULL TRAP IS STILL OPEN! Bitcoin dumped to $73,000. Most people call this a temporary dip. They are wrong. Structurally, this is the most bearish setup of the cycle. Here's why 90% of traders get wiped out by November 2026: The Trap: Price drops → "Just a temporary dip" → Everyone buys the support → Price crashes through it → Massive liquidations. The Reality: Global liquidity is drying up. Institutions are quietly exiting. The real bottom is still months away. The numbers don't lie. 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days The capitulation window opens only in July-November 2026. The market doesn't crash all at once. It crashes, then gives you hope, then crashes again. That's how 90% of people get wiped out. Remember, I've predicted every major move for 10 years. I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $111,000 in October. Turn on notifications. Many will wish they had followed me sooner.
0:29

🚨 WARNING: BULL TRAP IS STILL OPEN! Bitcoin dumped to $73,000. Most people call this a temporary dip. They are wrong. Structurally, this is the most bearish setup of the cycle. Here's why 90% of traders get wiped out by November 2026: The Trap: Price drops → "Just a temporary dip" → Everyone buys the support → Price crashes through it → Massive liquidations. The Reality: Global liquidity is drying up. Institutions are quietly exiting. The real bottom is still months away. The numbers don't lie. 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days The capitulation window opens only in July-November 2026. The market doesn't crash all at once. It crashes, then gives you hope, then crashes again. That's how 90% of people get wiped out. Remember, I've predicted every major move for 10 years. I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $111,000 in October. Turn on notifications. Many will wish they had followed me sooner.

MARMOT

44,098 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS THE END FOR $BTC Bitcoin is already DOWN nearly 49% from its all-time high. Most people believe the worst is over. IT IS NOT. Two phases of this bear market are already complete. The third and final phase is just beginning. And this is the phase that creates every major cycle bottom. My roadmap: → $60K-$61K remains → Lose it and $BTC moves toward the mid-$50Ks → $50K-$55K becomes the final bottom zone That zone is not random. The 200-week moving average and Bitcoin’s realized price are both sitting near it. These are the same levels that marked previous cycle bottoms. And the timing is lining up perfectly: → Four-year cycle → On-chain data → Institutional forecasts → October–December 2026 bottom window That will be the peak-panic phase. Everyone will say Bitcoin is dead. They always do. But that is exactly when the real bottom forms. Most people will panic-sell the final flush and buy back after the recovery begins. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the exact moment I start loading spot.
0:26

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS THE END FOR $BTC Bitcoin is already DOWN nearly 49% from its all-time high. Most people believe the worst is over. IT IS NOT. Two phases of this bear market are already complete. The third and final phase is just beginning. And this is the phase that creates every major cycle bottom. My roadmap: → $60K-$61K remains → Lose it and $BTC moves toward the mid-$50Ks → $50K-$55K becomes the final bottom zone That zone is not random. The 200-week moving average and Bitcoin’s realized price are both sitting near it. These are the same levels that marked previous cycle bottoms. And the timing is lining up perfectly: → Four-year cycle → On-chain data → Institutional forecasts → October–December 2026 bottom window That will be the peak-panic phase. Everyone will say Bitcoin is dead. They always do. But that is exactly when the real bottom forms. Most people will panic-sell the final flush and buy back after the recovery begins. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the exact moment I start loading spot.

Wimar.X

58,944 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

🚨 BILLIONAIRE ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI WITH HIS MOST SPECIFIC BITCOIN CALL YET: "If you study the hash rate and you study the miner economics, this should recover in the 4th quarter of 2026, and we should be in a rising market in 2027." Hash rate: measures the computing power securing the Bitcoin network. When it recovers after miner capitulation, price historically follows. Miner economics: when the least efficient miners shut down at current prices, supply tightens. The cost floor becomes the price floor. Charles Schwab's research desk put the efficient miner production cost at $60,000. The network is near that floor right now. Scaramucci has been investing for 38 years. He is watching the same data the miners are watching. Q4 2026. Rising market in 2027. Mark the date.
1:39

🚨 BILLIONAIRE ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI WITH HIS MOST SPECIFIC BITCOIN CALL YET: "If you study the hash rate and you study the miner economics, this should recover in the 4th quarter of 2026, and we should be in a rising market in 2027." Hash rate: measures the computing power securing the Bitcoin network. When it recovers after miner capitulation, price historically follows. Miner economics: when the least efficient miners shut down at current prices, supply tightens. The cost floor becomes the price floor. Charles Schwab's research desk put the efficient miner production cost at $60,000. The network is near that floor right now. Scaramucci has been investing for 38 years. He is watching the same data the miners are watching. Q4 2026. Rising market in 2027. Mark the date.

WOLF Bitcoin

27,005 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Democrats are fuming after local news is forced to report gas prices are PLUMMETING near $2 under President Trump in certain areas, the lowest in 4 YEARS 🇺🇸 "It is PERCECT timing for everyone that is leaving and heading out to wherever their holiday destination is!" "The last time that the national gas price average was below $3 was four years ago!" "This time last year, the prices were up about a dollar." "AAA says that right now the national average is about $2.86. This is the first time in the gas price average was below $3 since May of 2020." "But the tri-state is sitting at even lower prices in the Cincinnati area. A gallon of regular unleaded gas is right around $2.54!" "In northern Kentucky, the average is a bit higher at $2.60 and prices in our highest, if you can even call it that, in southeastern Indiana with an average of $2.80."
1:01

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Democrats are fuming after local news is forced to report gas prices are PLUMMETING near $2 under President Trump in certain areas, the lowest in 4 YEARS 🇺🇸 "It is PERCECT timing for everyone that is leaving and heading out to wherever their holiday destination is!" "The last time that the national gas price average was below $3 was four years ago!" "This time last year, the prices were up about a dollar." "AAA says that right now the national average is about $2.86. This is the first time in the gas price average was below $3 since May of 2020." "But the tri-state is sitting at even lower prices in the Cincinnati area. A gallon of regular unleaded gas is right around $2.54!" "In northern Kentucky, the average is a bit higher at $2.60 and prices in our highest, if you can even call it that, in southeastern Indiana with an average of $2.80."

Eric Daugherty

268,912 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Bitcoin just touched the 50 month moving average for the 4th time ever. 2015 bottom zone. 2018 the bottom. 2022 the bottom. 2026 right now. The 20 week moving average sits at $71,000. Every prior bear market bottom was confirmed the same way: reclaim the 20 week, test the 50 week, bottom was in. If Bitcoin makes that move sooner rather than later, the "Q4 bottom" thesis doesn't have months left to be proven right. It has weeks. I respect the 4 year cycle analysis and consider the possibilities. But PMI just flipped to expansion, copper/gold is breaking out, and every prior time that combination showed up, a crypto bull market followed. Both theories about to be tested at the same time. We're about to find out which cycle Bitcoin actually answers to.
13:38

Bitcoin just touched the 50 month moving average for the 4th time ever. 2015 bottom zone. 2018 the bottom. 2022 the bottom. 2026 right now. The 20 week moving average sits at $71,000. Every prior bear market bottom was confirmed the same way: reclaim the 20 week, test the 50 week, bottom was in. If Bitcoin makes that move sooner rather than later, the "Q4 bottom" thesis doesn't have months left to be proven right. It has weeks. I respect the 4 year cycle analysis and consider the possibilities. But PMI just flipped to expansion, copper/gold is breaking out, and every prior time that combination showed up, a crypto bull market followed. Both theories about to be tested at the same time. We're about to find out which cycle Bitcoin actually answers to.

Dan Gambardello

23,799 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Metaplanet from $1.83 to $69. Model assumptions: $100M/month preferred issuance of MARS 6% preferred cost 30% BTC CAGR Sell common stock to pay dividends Zero common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, EVER CEBE mNAV linear expansion to 1.55x over 10 years. Start: 40,177 BTC 2,729 CEBE sats/share $1.83 implied price Year 10: 74,166 BTC 4,381 CEBE sats/share $69.12 implied price That is 37.8x in the model. And the share count only rises 10.7%. If you can raise fiat claims at 6% and buy Bitcoin compounding at 30%, the spread is the entire trade. CEBE is the scoreboard. Metaplanet is turning fiat liabilities into residual Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders. That is the flywheel once prefs get here. And what if they can raise more than $100m per month? The senior claim ratio of the balance sheet peaks at month 15 of this model. They have plenty of room to continue adding leverage. Bullish Metaplanet.
0:29

Metaplanet from $1.83 to $69. Model assumptions: $100M/month preferred issuance of MARS 6% preferred cost 30% BTC CAGR Sell common stock to pay dividends Zero common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, EVER CEBE mNAV linear expansion to 1.55x over 10 years. Start: 40,177 BTC 2,729 CEBE sats/share $1.83 implied price Year 10: 74,166 BTC 4,381 CEBE sats/share $69.12 implied price That is 37.8x in the model. And the share count only rises 10.7%. If you can raise fiat claims at 6% and buy Bitcoin compounding at 30%, the spread is the entire trade. CEBE is the scoreboard. Metaplanet is turning fiat liabilities into residual Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders. That is the flywheel once prefs get here. And what if they can raise more than $100m per month? The senior claim ratio of the balance sheet peaks at month 15 of this model. They have plenty of room to continue adding leverage. Bullish Metaplanet.

Adam Livingston

42,778 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

At the beginning of 2025, I posted "we just entered the most bullish year of the 4-year cycle." I was wrong. Most of the industry was wrong. 2025 was actually the bear market. But here's what I learned... The 4-year cycle was a mirage. What actually matters is what the Fed is doing, what liquidity is doing, what the business cycle is doing And right now... QT just ended PMI ready to expand Institutions accumulating while retail quits If you're still here, you're one of the few left standing. The setup going into 2026 is strong. Intro 00:00 Retail has left 2:00 I was wrong about 2025 3:10 Crypto doesn’t need retail 5:30 Altcoins may need a few months… 10:00 Big altcoin momentum indicator 10:45
16:27

At the beginning of 2025, I posted "we just entered the most bullish year of the 4-year cycle." I was wrong. Most of the industry was wrong. 2025 was actually the bear market. But here's what I learned... The 4-year cycle was a mirage. What actually matters is what the Fed is doing, what liquidity is doing, what the business cycle is doing And right now... QT just ended PMI ready to expand Institutions accumulating while retail quits If you're still here, you're one of the few left standing. The setup going into 2026 is strong. Intro 00:00 Retail has left 2:00 I was wrong about 2025 3:10 Crypto doesn’t need retail 5:30 Altcoins may need a few months… 10:00 Big altcoin momentum indicator 10:45

Dan Gambardello

58,417 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30
15:55

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30

Dan Gambardello

26,873 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Anthony Scaramucci on Bitcoin & crypto: "I still like it. I own a lot of it." "I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the 4th quarter of 2026 into early 2027." "Is Michael (Saylor) in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble...I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be right." "We're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all time low for Bitcoin. The apathy is there. No one cares about (crypto) anymore. If you look at Google searches they're way way down." This is "my 38th year as an investor: When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin thin market...a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price."
2:37

Anthony Scaramucci on Bitcoin & crypto: "I still like it. I own a lot of it." "I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the 4th quarter of 2026 into early 2027." "Is Michael (Saylor) in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble...I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be right." "We're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all time low for Bitcoin. The apathy is there. No one cares about (crypto) anymore. If you look at Google searches they're way way down." This is "my 38th year as an investor: When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin thin market...a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price."

Altcoin Daily

184,780 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 I CANNOT LOOK AWAY FROM THIS CHART Bitcoin just completed its 4-year cycle: Cycle 1 (2011 - 2014) 2011 - Buy 2012 - Hold 2013 - Sell 2014 - Bear Market Cycle 2 (2015 - 2018) 2015 - Buy 2016 - Hold 2017 - Sell 2018 - Bear Market Cycle 3 (2019 - 2022) 2019 - Buy 2020 - Hold 2021 - Sell 2022 - Bear Market Cycle 4 (2023 - 2026) 2023 - Buy 2024 - Hold 2025 - Sell 2026 - Bear Market (we are here) Cycle 5 (2027 - 2030) 2027 - Buy 2028 - Hold 2029 - Sell 2030 - Bear Market So far the 4 year cycle is still on track and everything is playing out perfectly. If the structure holds, 2027 becomes the next major accumulation window. I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:30

🚨 I CANNOT LOOK AWAY FROM THIS CHART Bitcoin just completed its 4-year cycle: Cycle 1 (2011 - 2014) 2011 - Buy 2012 - Hold 2013 - Sell 2014 - Bear Market Cycle 2 (2015 - 2018) 2015 - Buy 2016 - Hold 2017 - Sell 2018 - Bear Market Cycle 3 (2019 - 2022) 2019 - Buy 2020 - Hold 2021 - Sell 2022 - Bear Market Cycle 4 (2023 - 2026) 2023 - Buy 2024 - Hold 2025 - Sell 2026 - Bear Market (we are here) Cycle 5 (2027 - 2030) 2027 - Buy 2028 - Hold 2029 - Sell 2030 - Bear Market So far the 4 year cycle is still on track and everything is playing out perfectly. If the structure holds, 2027 becomes the next major accumulation window. I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

28,871 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI ON BITCOIN & CRYPTO: "I STILL LIKE IT. I OWN A LOT OF IT." "I THINK BITCOIN STARTS TO RALLY LATE IN THE 4TH QUARTER OF 2026 INTO EARLY 2027." "IS MICHAEL (SAYLOR) IN TROUBLE? HE'S DEFINITELY NOT IN TROUBLE... I LIKE IT. I LIKE HIM. I THINK HE'S GOING TO BE RIGHT." "WE'RE AT THE POINT IN THE CYCLE WHERE THE RSI IS AT AN ALL-TIME LOW FOR BITCOIN. THE APATHY IS THERE. NO ONE CARES ABOUT CRYPTO ANYMORE. IF YOU LOOK AT GOOGLE SEARCHES, THEY'RE WAY, WAY DOWN." "THIS IS MY 38TH YEAR AS AN INVESTOR: WHEN YOU HAVE RSI WHERE IT IS, APATHY WHERE IT IS, AND IT'S A THIN, THIN MARKET... A TINY BIT OF DEMAND FOR BITCOIN MOVES THE PRICE."
2:37

ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI ON BITCOIN & CRYPTO: "I STILL LIKE IT. I OWN A LOT OF IT." "I THINK BITCOIN STARTS TO RALLY LATE IN THE 4TH QUARTER OF 2026 INTO EARLY 2027." "IS MICHAEL (SAYLOR) IN TROUBLE? HE'S DEFINITELY NOT IN TROUBLE... I LIKE IT. I LIKE HIM. I THINK HE'S GOING TO BE RIGHT." "WE'RE AT THE POINT IN THE CYCLE WHERE THE RSI IS AT AN ALL-TIME LOW FOR BITCOIN. THE APATHY IS THERE. NO ONE CARES ABOUT CRYPTO ANYMORE. IF YOU LOOK AT GOOGLE SEARCHES, THEY'RE WAY, WAY DOWN." "THIS IS MY 38TH YEAR AS AN INVESTOR: WHEN YOU HAVE RSI WHERE IT IS, APATHY WHERE IT IS, AND IT'S A THIN, THIN MARKET... A TINY BIT OF DEMAND FOR BITCOIN MOVES THE PRICE."

Vivek Sen

64,512 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS? $60K was probably the $BTC bottom, and that too based on the 4-year cycle. Each cycle, BTC has made a new ATH. And the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH. In Jan 2017, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in December 2018. In December 2020, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in November 2022. This cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in Feb 2026 (23 months). And there are other things too supporting this. During the Feb 2026 dump: - Weekly RSI hit a 4-year low - The sentiment index went to its lowest ever - Retest of the 2021 cycle ATH All these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin, and maybe "THIS TIME IT'S NOT DIFFERENT."
0:27

WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS? $60K was probably the $BTC bottom, and that too based on the 4-year cycle. Each cycle, BTC has made a new ATH. And the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH. In Jan 2017, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in December 2018. In December 2020, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in November 2022. This cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in Feb 2026 (23 months). And there are other things too supporting this. During the Feb 2026 dump: - Weekly RSI hit a 4-year low - The sentiment index went to its lowest ever - Retest of the 2021 cycle ATH All these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin, and maybe "THIS TIME IT'S NOT DIFFERENT."

Ash Crypto

248,949 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Anyone remember 2019, when Bitcoin pumped straight from $3k to $14k? Do you remember how, out of pure nothing, it just decided to start its own rally in 2019? 2018 Bitcoin printed its absolute low. You can see that 112 days after we had turned from red to green in the Bitcoin Journey Map, the absolute cycle bottom had been formed. The real bottom had already formed before the rally. The weekly chart printed a clean bullish crossover, and after that Bitcoin only knew one direction. 2022 was almost the identical setup. Same bullish weekly crossover. Inside those 112 days we actually saw the lowest price of the entire cycle. 2019 was the only exception where the low printed earlier. In 2019 that leg from $3k to $14k took 63 days. That $14k level was roughly 27 percent under the previous cycle top. If this pattern repeats now the same way it did in 2019, we are looking at $90,000 by mid-October. Everything is based on probabilities! bitcoin:native
0:53

Anyone remember 2019, when Bitcoin pumped straight from $3k to $14k? Do you remember how, out of pure nothing, it just decided to start its own rally in 2019? 2018 Bitcoin printed its absolute low. You can see that 112 days after we had turned from red to green in the Bitcoin Journey Map, the absolute cycle bottom had been formed. The real bottom had already formed before the rally. The weekly chart printed a clean bullish crossover, and after that Bitcoin only knew one direction. 2022 was almost the identical setup. Same bullish weekly crossover. Inside those 112 days we actually saw the lowest price of the entire cycle. 2019 was the only exception where the low printed earlier. In 2019 that leg from $3k to $14k took 63 days. That $14k level was roughly 27 percent under the previous cycle top. If this pattern repeats now the same way it did in 2019, we are looking at $90,000 by mid-October. Everything is based on probabilities! bitcoin:native

XAPA

29,274 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

BITCOIN is about to EXPLODE: Bitcoin is sitting around $63k, down roughly 50% from the ATH, basically stapled to its 4-year moving average. So I ran 20,000 historically conditioned Monte Carlo paths from here. The model uses actual historical Bitcoin return blocks and conditions on the kind of state we’re in now: BTC near its 4-year MA 90-day return deeply negative drawdown near 50% realized volatility compressed long-term moving average still rising Then I asked a simple question: What tends to happen next if Bitcoin behaves like Bitcoin? Here’s the raw 24-month distribution: 10th percentile: $79K 25th percentile: $108K Median: $179K 75th percentile: $255K 90th percentile: $402K Median outcome: $63K → $179K That’s roughly a +183% total return (68% CAGR) In the middle of a bear market. While everyone is currently examining a -2.7% candle like the Warren Commission examining the Zapruder film. The path to those outcomes is also aggressively Bitcoin. Across the simulations: 93.3% suffer a 30%+ drawdown somewhere along the way. Median maximum drawdown: -42.7% So the model is basically saying: “Congratulations. You may become much richer. First, however, Bitcoin would like to put your nervous system in a Home Depot paint shaker.” The simulation practically expects emotional property damage. But when I look at this distribution, the question becomes less: “What if Bitcoin drops again?” and more: “What if this is the part everyone remembers later as obvious?” Bear markets are where conviction gets tested. Sometimes they’re also where the future CAGR is quietly being manufactured while everyone else is refreshing the chart and developing a magnesium deficiency:
0:28

BITCOIN is about to EXPLODE: Bitcoin is sitting around $63k, down roughly 50% from the ATH, basically stapled to its 4-year moving average. So I ran 20,000 historically conditioned Monte Carlo paths from here. The model uses actual historical Bitcoin return blocks and conditions on the kind of state we’re in now: BTC near its 4-year MA 90-day return deeply negative drawdown near 50% realized volatility compressed long-term moving average still rising Then I asked a simple question: What tends to happen next if Bitcoin behaves like Bitcoin? Here’s the raw 24-month distribution: 10th percentile: $79K 25th percentile: $108K Median: $179K 75th percentile: $255K 90th percentile: $402K Median outcome: $63K → $179K That’s roughly a +183% total return (68% CAGR) In the middle of a bear market. While everyone is currently examining a -2.7% candle like the Warren Commission examining the Zapruder film. The path to those outcomes is also aggressively Bitcoin. Across the simulations: 93.3% suffer a 30%+ drawdown somewhere along the way. Median maximum drawdown: -42.7% So the model is basically saying: “Congratulations. You may become much richer. First, however, Bitcoin would like to put your nervous system in a Home Depot paint shaker.” The simulation practically expects emotional property damage. But when I look at this distribution, the question becomes less: “What if Bitcoin drops again?” and more: “What if this is the part everyone remembers later as obvious?” Bear markets are where conviction gets tested. Sometimes they’re also where the future CAGR is quietly being manufactured while everyone else is refreshing the chart and developing a magnesium deficiency:

Adam Livingston

59,659 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

I decided to update this video for you by showing the timeframes when Bitcoin pumped in 2023 and when it reached its peak price. Bitcoin is currently behaving in exactly the same way. The pattern is very similar and has repeated itself perfectly so far. If the rest of the pattern plays out, prices between $83,300 and $91,000 can be expected. If the timeframe repeats, it could happen in mid-September. Nothing is guaranteed to repeat, of course, but it is a very interesting perspective. Check out my previous thread to understand more! First part (around January 2023) Strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.32%. This was followed by a correction of about –5.24% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside or at the edge of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. Final support on the 4H timeframe was found at the Ichimoku Cycle Engine / yellow TEM band. Second part (current chart, August 2026) Strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.58%. This was followed by a correction of about –4-5% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. bitcoin:native
0:36

I decided to update this video for you by showing the timeframes when Bitcoin pumped in 2023 and when it reached its peak price. Bitcoin is currently behaving in exactly the same way. The pattern is very similar and has repeated itself perfectly so far. If the rest of the pattern plays out, prices between $83,300 and $91,000 can be expected. If the timeframe repeats, it could happen in mid-September. Nothing is guaranteed to repeat, of course, but it is a very interesting perspective. Check out my previous thread to understand more! First part (around January 2023) Strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.32%. This was followed by a correction of about –5.24% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside or at the edge of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. Final support on the 4H timeframe was found at the Ichimoku Cycle Engine / yellow TEM band. Second part (current chart, August 2026) Strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.58%. This was followed by a correction of about –4-5% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. bitcoin:native

XAPA

25,542 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

The hardest part of the cycle is still ahead. BTC is already down roughly 49% from its ATH. Most people think the worst is behind. But that's not true. Two phases of this bear market are already complete. Now the final phase is starting, and that's the one that usually creates the real cycle bottom. Here's what I'm watching: $62K-$63K is the key line. BTC has defended it every time so far. Lose it, and I expect a move into the mid-$50Ks. The real bottom zone sits around $45K-$49K, where the 200-week MA and realized price historically converge near major cycle lows. The timing also fits. Four-year cycle structure, on-chain data and broader market positioning all point toward October-December 2026. That's when I expect maximum fear. When everyone starts saying Bitcoin is dead. And historically, that's exactly when the real bottom starts forming. I called the recent Bitcoin dump, $126k top in October 2025, and $15k bottom in November 2022. If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too. Follow now. I'll call every major move.
0:43

The hardest part of the cycle is still ahead. BTC is already down roughly 49% from its ATH. Most people think the worst is behind. But that's not true. Two phases of this bear market are already complete. Now the final phase is starting, and that's the one that usually creates the real cycle bottom. Here's what I'm watching: $62K-$63K is the key line. BTC has defended it every time so far. Lose it, and I expect a move into the mid-$50Ks. The real bottom zone sits around $45K-$49K, where the 200-week MA and realized price historically converge near major cycle lows. The timing also fits. Four-year cycle structure, on-chain data and broader market positioning all point toward October-December 2026. That's when I expect maximum fear. When everyone starts saying Bitcoin is dead. And historically, that's exactly when the real bottom starts forming. I called the recent Bitcoin dump, $126k top in October 2025, and $15k bottom in November 2022. If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too. Follow now. I'll call every major move.

Kabuki🔴

19,154 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! Bitcoin dump is just getting started. And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom. My target for the bottom: $50,000. Let me explain: The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022. In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K. That was a -42% move. Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again. BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K. That is only -26% so far. Halfway through the same pattern. The market is following the same chart. Same cross. Same direction. And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below. That is exactly why my target is $50,000. This is not random price action. This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022. Most people think the bottom is close. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:49

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! Bitcoin dump is just getting started. And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom. My target for the bottom: $50,000. Let me explain: The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022. In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K. That was a -42% move. Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again. BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K. That is only -26% so far. Halfway through the same pattern. The market is following the same chart. Same cross. Same direction. And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below. That is exactly why my target is $50,000. This is not random price action. This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022. Most people think the bottom is close. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

43,617 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Big Tech just forced the US government into bailing ITSELF out. This morning the US Treasury announced it will at least double the size of its own bond buybacks, because for two months almost nobody else wanted them. The 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest yield since 2007 last Thursday, then did it again yesterday. The long end has been in a buyers' strike since late June, meaning the pension funds and insurers who normally absorb 20 and 30 year government paper stopped showing up. This morning it auctioned $16 billion of 20-year debt at the second-worst yield since that bond was reintroduced in 2020. So the Treasury tore up a schedule it had published two weeks earlier. It doubled the maximum size of each long-bond buyback from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and went from two operations a quarter to four. The 30-year yield fell 9 basis points within minutes. Stocks rallied. By early afternoon the 10-year had given almost all of it back. BUT the thing is, this operation changes almost nothing, because the underlying problem is untouched: The tidal wave of hyperscaler debt sitting on top of very large government deficits. Hyperscaler means Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and Nvidia. The Wall Street Journal went through the footnotes of 9 tech companies' filings on Sunday and found roughly $3 TRILLION in AI commitments sitting outside their balance sheets. That is 5x the $600 billion of capital spending those same companies reported over the past year. Alphabet alone discloses $811 billion in purchase and contractual obligations. Three months earlier it was $332 billion. All of it has to be funded somewhere. And this is where it collides with the government: Data centers, chip supply agreements and 20-year power contracts are long-duration assets, and long-duration assets get financed with long-duration debt. That is the exact product the US Treasury sells. There is a finite pool of investors willing to lend money for 30 years at a fixed rate. That pool does not get bigger because Meta needs another campus in Louisiana. So when the largest companies in history issue hundreds of billions of long-dated debt at the same moment the Treasury needs to roll a national debt approaching $40 trillion, both sides are bidding for the SAME buyers. One of those bidders can offer whatever yield it takes and book it as growth. The other one is the US government, and this morning it folded. Treasury does not create money for these buybacks. It funds them by issuing shorter-dated debt instead, so the obligation does not disappear. It gets pulled closer to the present, to be refinanced at whatever rate exists in a year or two. The government is buying back the debt nobody wants by selling more of the debt people still take. The 30-year Treasury yield is the number that prices your mortgage. The average 30-year fixed sits at 6.67% today. But there IS a real argument on the other side: Buybacks are routine, and $4 billion is nothing against a $30 trillion market. Plenty of serious people will call today housekeeping. But housekeeping shouldn’t require tearing up your own published schedule two weeks after you release it. The AI buildout is now financed at a scale that competes with sovereign borrowing, and the sovereign is losing bidders. Nobody voted on that, and people will pay for it in their mortgage rate long before anyone calls it a crisis. What do you think?
0:55

Big Tech just forced the US government into bailing ITSELF out. This morning the US Treasury announced it will at least double the size of its own bond buybacks, because for two months almost nobody else wanted them. The 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest yield since 2007 last Thursday, then did it again yesterday. The long end has been in a buyers' strike since late June, meaning the pension funds and insurers who normally absorb 20 and 30 year government paper stopped showing up. This morning it auctioned $16 billion of 20-year debt at the second-worst yield since that bond was reintroduced in 2020. So the Treasury tore up a schedule it had published two weeks earlier. It doubled the maximum size of each long-bond buyback from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and went from two operations a quarter to four. The 30-year yield fell 9 basis points within minutes. Stocks rallied. By early afternoon the 10-year had given almost all of it back. BUT the thing is, this operation changes almost nothing, because the underlying problem is untouched: The tidal wave of hyperscaler debt sitting on top of very large government deficits. Hyperscaler means Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and Nvidia. The Wall Street Journal went through the footnotes of 9 tech companies' filings on Sunday and found roughly $3 TRILLION in AI commitments sitting outside their balance sheets. That is 5x the $600 billion of capital spending those same companies reported over the past year. Alphabet alone discloses $811 billion in purchase and contractual obligations. Three months earlier it was $332 billion. All of it has to be funded somewhere. And this is where it collides with the government: Data centers, chip supply agreements and 20-year power contracts are long-duration assets, and long-duration assets get financed with long-duration debt. That is the exact product the US Treasury sells. There is a finite pool of investors willing to lend money for 30 years at a fixed rate. That pool does not get bigger because Meta needs another campus in Louisiana. So when the largest companies in history issue hundreds of billions of long-dated debt at the same moment the Treasury needs to roll a national debt approaching $40 trillion, both sides are bidding for the SAME buyers. One of those bidders can offer whatever yield it takes and book it as growth. The other one is the US government, and this morning it folded. Treasury does not create money for these buybacks. It funds them by issuing shorter-dated debt instead, so the obligation does not disappear. It gets pulled closer to the present, to be refinanced at whatever rate exists in a year or two. The government is buying back the debt nobody wants by selling more of the debt people still take. The 30-year Treasury yield is the number that prices your mortgage. The average 30-year fixed sits at 6.67% today. But there IS a real argument on the other side: Buybacks are routine, and $4 billion is nothing against a $30 trillion market. Plenty of serious people will call today housekeeping. But housekeeping shouldn’t require tearing up your own published schedule two weeks after you release it. The AI buildout is now financed at a scale that competes with sovereign borrowing, and the sovereign is losing bidders. Nobody voted on that, and people will pay for it in their mortgage rate long before anyone calls it a crisis. What do you think?

Ricardo

59,654 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen