正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

🇺🇸The U.S. debt problem gets more DANGEROUS every time Treasury yields rise. The issue is not just how much America owes. It is how much that debt costs to service. When yields stay higher, Washington borrows and refinances maturing debt at higher rates, pushing federal interest costs up over...

29,344 次观看 • 1 天前 •via X (Twitter)

14 条评论

Chainspect 的头像
Chainspect1 天前

This is what happens when “future me will handle it” becomes a macro strategy 👀

Twan | Indices, BTC, stocks 的头像
Twan | Indices, BTC, stocks1 天前

They’re paying more on interest than all of defence. This can’t go on any longer

Macro Bombastic 的头像
Macro Bombastic1 天前

tbh this is why I hold crypto and sleep fine

Ted Trading Club 的头像
Ted Trading Club1 天前

Higher yields turn yesterday’s borrowing into tomorrow’s liquidity problem

The Moon Show 的头像
The Moon Show1 天前

The rising cost of servicing national debt vs. refinancing timelines is certainly one of the most critical macro trends to watch today.

AMk.Crypto 🧢 的头像
AMk.Crypto 🧢1 天前

Debt service eating the budget is the slow part. Then it's fast.

Cryptocards.one 的头像
Cryptocards.one1 天前

Higher yields turn debt into a compounding problem.

1win 的头像
1win1 天前

we got the hint

The Financial Daily | Your Trusted Finance News 的头像
The Financial Daily | Your Trusted Finance News1 天前

cool cool so servicing our debt is just gonna be half the national budget soon

RavenWillow 的头像
RavenWillow1 天前

That’s the part people miss — it’s not just the size of the debt, it’s the cost of carrying it as yields stay elevated. You and @mikekennedy39 are two accounts I follow for connecting those macro dots without losing the bigger picture.

Marcus Hale 的头像
Marcus Hale1 天前

The debt total gets the headlines, but the refinancing cost is the part that can really snowball when yields stay high. I follow both your macro work and @mfitchic’s closely — curious if he thinks debt service or slower growth becomes the bigger pressure point first.

Eli Zink 的头像
Eli Zink1 天前

Higher yields turning into higher refinancing costs is what makes this debt spiral so dangerous. You and @reynosismo_ are the two accounts I most enjoy following

Deep kumar 的头像
Deep kumar1 天前

Debt spiral heats up when rates stay high

Idris 的头像
Idris1 天前

The real risk is not the debt itself but the rising cost of servicing it higher yields mean higher interest costs, tighter liquidity and more pressure across markets that is the part worth watching

相关视频

Ray Dalio explains how financial repression begins once the debt problem gets out of control. It starts with a simple reality: One man’s debt is another man’s asset. Government debt is not just a liability for the government. It is also the asset sitting inside pension funds, banks, insurance companies, foreign reserves and portfolios. But here is the problem. If those bonds do not offer a good real return after inflation, investors stop wanting them. So yields rise. And when yields rise, the government’s debt burden becomes even harder to manage. That is the trap. At some point, the system cannot tolerate true market-priced interest rates anymore. So policy steps in. The Treasury keeps issuing debt. The Fed is pressured to help absorb it or suppress yields. Inflation is allowed to run above bond returns. Taxes on capital and wealth rise. And savers are slowly paid back in money that buys less. This is financial repression. It does not look like default on paper. But in real purchasing power terms, it is a slow default on savers. That is why Dalio keeps pointing toward gold. Because when bonds stop protecting real wealth, capital starts looking for assets outside the paper promise system. The core message is simple: The government needs cheap funding. Investors need real returns. Both cannot win at the same time. And historically, when the debt burden becomes too large, policy chooses the debtor over the saver.

Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

11,723 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! The Fed just hit the panic button. Next week, they'll inject BILLIONS into the economy to prevent a market collapse. When markets open on Monday, this won't be “just a dip.” If you hold any assets now, you MUST read this: The Fed is no longer choosing between a strong economy and stable inflation. It is choosing which problem to make worse. If the Fed hikes rates, borrowing costs will surge. Long-term Treasury yields will rise. Economic growth will slow. Debt servicing costs will explode. And with $40T in debt, the U.S. financial system will absorb an enormous amount of pressure. But if the Fed pauses or cuts rates, the problem moves somewhere else. Inflation will accelerate. Financial conditions will loosen. Inflation expectations will rise. And the Fed will be forced back into aggressive tightening. This creates a trap with NO clean exit. Higher rates → Higher yields → Slower growth → Bigger debt burden Lower rates → Higher inflation → More tightening → Higher yields This is no longer a normal rate cycle. The Fed is trapped between INFLATION and DEBT. And this is exactly where the Bank of Japan is currently sitting. Now it’s the Fed’s turn. The market can ignore this for as long as liquidity remains abundant. But once long-term yields start breaking higher while economic growth is slowing, the pressure will spread across every major asset class. Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Because when liquidity disappears, investors do not sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. And that is where the real chain reaction begins. Higher yields → Tighter liquidity → Falling risk assets → Forced selling The Fed will eventually be forced to choose between fighting inflation and protecting the debt market. And whichever path it chooses will create another problem somewhere else. This is the setup most people are completely ignoring. I have spent over 10 years trading markets and studying liquidity, rates, and macro cycles. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. If you want to survive the 2026-2027 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

0xNobler

312,564 次观看 • 6 天前

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED Japan has started the biggest yen intervention in history. The U.S. is now printing dollars to stop Japan from dumping $1.2 TRILLION in U.S. debt. If the yen crashes again, the entire market will collapse. Stocks will dump. Metals will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. And this is NOT normal. Here's what's really happening right now: Japan gives its U.S. Treasury bonds to the Fed. The Fed prints dollars against those bonds. Japan sells those dollars and buys yen. This lets Tokyo defend its currency without dumping its entire $1.2 TRILLION Treasury position into the market. Because if Japan starts selling at that scale, global liquidity disappears. And the pressure is coming from everywhere. Higher Japanese rates are pulling capital back home. A weaker yen is making imports more expensive. Japan's massive government debt makes higher borrowing costs increasingly painful. And Japanese investors are sitting on trillions of dollars in foreign assets. That creates enormous pressure to bring money back into Japan. But here's the insane part: If Japan dumps Treasuries, bond prices fall and yields rise. Higher Treasury yields push global borrowing costs higher. Liquidity tightens. Risk assets come under pressure. And the shock spreads from bonds into stocks, real estate, crypto, and credit markets. So the U.S. is effectively printing dollars to absorb the same U.S. debt Japan wants to sell. Japan dumps the bonds. America prints the money. And the Fed takes the debt onto its own books. The underlying pressure does not disappear. It gets transferred through the financial system. THIS IS HOW THEY ARE TRYING TO HIDE A GLOBAL LIQUIDITY CRISIS. Pay attention. The biggest shifts in global finance are never obvious while they are happening. Then suddenly, everyone realizes the world has changed. I've spent more than a decade watching how these markets move. And I've also called nearly every major market top and bottom. Follow and turn on notifications now. Many people will wish they had started paying attention sooner.

0xNobler

154,245 次观看 • 25 天前

🇺🇸🇯🇵 The U.S may be quietly approaching a “whatever it takes” moment to stop Treasury yields from exploding America recently joined Japan in supporting the yen after the currency plunged toward 40-year lows. At first glance, that's a Japanese problem, but David Lin says Washington had a very American reason to intervene. The yen sits at the heart of one of the biggest trades in global finance. For years, investors have borrowed cheaply in Japan and poured that money into higher-yielding U.S assets. But if Japanese rates keep rising, that enormous carry trade starts to unwind. Investors sell U.S assets, Treasuries get dumped, U.S yields surge, and that's where things get dangerous, because America today cannot tolerate interest rates the way it could 40 years ago. David points out that U.S debt-to-GDP was around 31% in the early 1980s; today it's above 120%. So when people say America survived 15% interest rates in the 1980s, they're missing the point; the U.S had a fraction of today's debt. David warns that if the 10-year Treasury yield were allowed to spiral dramatically higher now, the effects would rip through virtually everything: Mortgages, credit cards, corporate borrowing, housing, equities, and even the enormous AI infrastructure boom, which depends on companies being able to finance staggering amounts of CapEx. And there's another problem making all of this worse: Iran. Japan imports huge quantities of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, which puts more pressure on inflation and the yen, so it may be forced to raise interest rates further. And higher Japanese rates make the carry trade even more vulnerable. So you get a potentially vicious cycle: Hormuz squeezes Japan, it raises rates, the carry trade unwinds, U.S assets get sold, Treasury yields rise, and America's borrowing costs explode. Which helps explain why Washington stepped in. But here's the problem: the U.S intervention barely lasted; the yen began weakening again within days. And David doesn't think the amount Washington deployed was remotely large enough to solve the underlying problem. His theory is that this may have been a teaser. A signal to markets that the gloves are coming off and Washington is prepared to intervene much more aggressively if necessary. And if this doesn't work, the next steps become much bigger. David Lin

Mario Nawfal

297,547 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.52%. Highest since 2004. And it gets worse every day: The Treasury already TRIPLED one of its long-term bond buybacks to $6 BILLION. And yields are STILL going HIGHER. Something doesn’t add up: WHO IS GOING TO BUY THE NEXT WAVE OF U.S. DEBT? Japan has been one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries for decades. Now Japanese yields are above 3%, and Japanese investors have already sold roughly ¥3 TRILLION of overseas debt this year. China is doing the same thing. Its Treasury holdings fell from roughly $696B to $618B in one year. Meanwhile, hedge funds are becoming increasingly important buyers of U.S. government debt. And that changes the game. Central banks buy Treasuries because they NEED reserves. Hedge funds buy them because the TRADE pays. When the trade stops paying, they leave. That means the marginal buyer is becoming much more PRICE-SENSITIVE. And Fed Governor Christopher Waller just said something almost nobody noticed: The historical “safety premium” on Treasuries is basically gone. Investors want to be PAID to hold U.S. debt for 30 years. If buyers demand 5.5%, Treasury pays 5.5%. If they demand 6%, Treasury pays 6%. The Fed controls the short end. It does NOT control what the market demands for 30-year money. And this can feed on itself: Fewer structural buyers → higher yields → higher interest costs → more borrowing → more Treasury supply → higher yields Treasury buybacks can help LIQUIDITY. They cannot create long-term demand. And if the 30-year keeps moving higher, this doesn’t stay inside bonds. Stocks. Real estate. Bitcoin. Everything gets repriced. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. I’m watching where the biggest money moves BEFORE it reaches stocks and Bitcoin. When I see the next major shift, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

80,817 次观看 • 7 天前

🚨 Professor Jiang Was Right: The U.S. Is Running a Textbook Ponzi Scheme and Petrodollar Is Under Real Stress Professor Jiang warned that America’s debt system works like a giant Ponzi scheme. Scott Bessent just proved him right in real time. The UK, China, Japan, South Korea and others are now selling U.S. Treasuries. When sellers outnumber buyers, the price of the bonds drops… and the interest rate (the “yield”) shoots up. Higher yields mean it suddenly costs America a lot more to borrow money. So what does Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent do? He starts buying those same long-term bonds himself to prop up the price and keep yields from exploding even higher. Here the government is using its own money (or newly created money) to buy its own debt because foreigners no longer want it. The music is slowing down. For 50 years the system worked like this: Gulf countries agreed to sell oil only in U.S. dollars. That forced every country in the world to keep holding dollars as reserves and buying U.S. Treasuries just so they could buy oil. It was the secret engine that kept demand for American debt alive. That engine is now sputtering. Saudi Arabia just recorded zero oil sales to the United States for the first time ever. Gulf countries are struggling to sell oil at the same scale, and the old “you must use dollars” rule is showing massive cracks. When the world no longer needs as many dollars to buy oil, and when big countries stop buying America’s long-term debt… the whole system that has kept U.S. borrowing cheap for decades starts to break. That’s what we’re watching in real time. Not a conspiracy. Just math and incentives finally catching up.

Stern Drew

527,621 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! You MUST read this before September 28. 98% of people will lose everything. For the first time EVER, something just broke in the economy. If you hold any assets today, you MUST prepare for the biggest sell-off of the year: When the markets open on Monday, this won’t be just a ‘normal correction.’ What's happening right now is NOT normal. → Japan is dumping $5.2 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries → China is dumping $600 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries → Trump just rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz → U.S. Treasury yields are going PARABOLIC These events are NOT separate. They are connected through one massive feedback loop that is now accelerating Iran offered a seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations. Trump rejected the proposal. That keeps geopolitical risk elevated, keeps pressure on energy markets. At the same time, the two largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries are pulling capital away from American government debt. Japan is dumping U.S. Treasuries. China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. And someone else has to absorb that supply. That means the market demands higher yields to attract buyers. And that is exactly what we are seeing. Treasury yields are exploding higher because the market is repricing the risk of holding long-duration U.S. government debt. This creates a massive feedback loop: → Japan and China reduce Treasury exposure → Treasury supply becomes harder to absorb → Yields rise to attract new buyers → Higher yields increase the cost of financing U.S. government debt → Higher borrowing costs pressure stocks, real estate, crypto, and every asset priced against Treasury yields → Higher energy prices from the Iran crisis add more inflation pressure → Higher inflation pressure pushes yields even higher And now the geopolitical shock is feeding directly into the bond-market shock. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world. Trump rejecting the ceasefire keeps the geopolitical risk alive at exactly the moment Treasury yields are already surging. That means the energy shock feeds the inflation shock. The inflation shock feeds the Treasury selloff. And the Treasury selloff spreads across EVERY major asset market. This is why you cannot look at oil, bonds, stocks, crypto, and geopolitics separately anymore. They are all part of the same chain reaction. Most people will watch stocks waiting for the crash. But the Treasury market is where the warning is already flashing. This is NOT normal. This is the beginning of a much larger repricing of risk. Pay attention now, because by the time everyone understands what is happening, it’ll already be too late. I’ve studied markets for over 12 years and have called nearly every major top and bottom. And I'm warning you today. If you want to survive the 2026–2027 cycle, follow and turn on notifications. A lot of people will wish they had paid attention before it was too late.

0xNobler

523,677 次观看 • 5 天前