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this 40 min MIT lecture on Markov Chains will teach you more about prediction markets than 5 years in trading it's 106 years old and wrote in 1906 > Google used it to build their search engine > quants use it to crush prediction markets > you can watch... show more

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58,280 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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This 50-minute MIT lecture on Markov Сhains got 1.5M views It’ll teach you more about prediction markets than 2 months spent working in Polymarket Bookmark this & watch, no matter what It's the most productive video for your week, then read the article below

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1¢ contract on Polymarket returns 43¢ per dollar a slot machine returns 90 cents • 72 million trades exposed this and nobody is talking about it: > takers (market orders) lose −1.12% per trade > makers (limit orders) earn +1.12% per trade > NO outperforms YES at 69 out of 99 price levels > people buy YES on their team, their candidate... > the quants collect the other side One equation connects all of this - Markov chains The same math behind Google's PageRank, nuclear bomb simulations, and every LLM This 1 hour MIT lecture on "Markov Chains in Finance" will teach you more about prediction markets than every "alpha" article you've ever bookmarked Bookmark & watch it once. Then read the full article below, you won't trade the same way again ↓

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This 1 hour MIT lecture on "Probabilistic Analysis" using Markov Chains will teach you more about prediction markets than a 2-month Wall Street Quant firm internship. Bookmark this & give it 1 hour today, no matter what. It’s the most productive start you can give your week. Then read article below

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