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This guy built a Bayesian Quant model and it made $1,362 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$29,972 PnL in 22 days with only $29 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Several AI agents can handle... probability, sizing and execution: 1. Every new BTC signal updates the probability through Bayes The model starts with a prior probability and updates it whenever new market data arrives: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) If BTC momentum strengthens and the model moves fair Up from 54% to 62% while Polymarket still trades at 53¢, the system sees a 9¢ gap 2. Kelly decides position size f* = (bp - q) / b Where: p = model probability of winning q = 1 - p b = net payout for each unit risked f* = suggested fraction to allocate Higher probability and better payout increase f*, while a weaker edge pushes it toward zero This trader’s Polymarket account: tiredofwinning2much Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: 4,948 predictions with a 51% win rate Most profitable trades: $260 → $615 (+$355) $253 → $602 (+$349) $227 → $560 (+$333) A similar Bayesian Quant setup can be built with Grok Bot, using AI agents for probability updates, sizing and executionshow more

Daniro

5,523 subscribers

59,829 views • 5 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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6 Comments

SkyDrop5 days ago

$29 average trade turning into nearly $30K PnL in 22 days is wild 👀 The Bayesian + Kelly approach makes this especially interesting. Definitely one to watch.

Daniro5 days ago

Although this trader has a small winning percentage and a small average trade size, frequently placing and executing limit orders allows him to build a large position, and both sides are yes and no, the main thing is that <100

VALIX5 days ago

This is a really interesting way to use Kelly with a Bayesian model

Daniro5 days ago

They form the basis of the software's risk / reward system, that is, they evaluate risks and potential profits. The bot also use time arbitrage and an entire ecosystem of servers and AI models, which allows them to make over 1k PNL every day

Verilla.eth5 days ago

挺不错

Lea Thompson5 days ago

CoinStats tracks my real PnL, not some Bayesian probability gap theory. Show me actual settlement volume.

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68,813 views • 21 days ago

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28,118 views • 1 month ago

$Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.$

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AdiiX

174,137 views • 6 months ago

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

VALIX

11,775 views • 4 months ago