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This guy built a Bayesian Quant model and it made $1,362 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$29,972 PnL in 22 days with only $29 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Several AI agents can handle... probability, sizing and execution: 1. Every new BTC signal updates the probability through Bayes The model starts with a prior probability and updates it whenever new market data arrives: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) If BTC momentum strengthens and the model moves fair Up from 54% to 62% while Polymarket still trades at 53¢, the system sees a 9¢ gap 2. Kelly decides position size f* = (bp - q) / b Where: p = model probability of winning q = 1 - p b = net payout for each unit risked f* = suggested fraction to allocate Higher probability and better payout increase f*, while a weaker edge pushes it toward zero This trader’s Polymarket account: tiredofwinning2much Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: 4,948 predictions with a 51% win rate Most profitable trades: $260 → $615 (+$355) $253 → $602 (+$349) $227 → $560 (+$333) A similar Bayesian Quant setup can be built with Grok Bot, using AI agents for probability updates, sizing and executionshow more

Daniro

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59,829 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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SkyDrop profil fotoğrafı

SkyDrop5 gün önce

$29 average trade turning into nearly $30K PnL in 22 days is wild 👀 The Bayesian + Kelly approach makes this especially interesting. Definitely one to watch.

Daniro profil fotoğrafı

Daniro5 gün önce

Although this trader has a small winning percentage and a small average trade size, frequently placing and executing limit orders allows him to build a large position, and both sides are yes and no, the main thing is that <100

VALIX profil fotoğrafı

VALIX5 gün önce

This is a really interesting way to use Kelly with a Bayesian model

Daniro profil fotoğrafı

Daniro5 gün önce

They form the basis of the software's risk / reward system, that is, they evaluate risks and potential profits. The bot also use time arbitrage and an entire ecosystem of servers and AI models, which allows them to make over 1k PNL every day

Verilla.eth profil fotoğrafı

Verilla.eth5 gün önce

挺不错

Lea Thompson profil fotoğrafı

Lea Thompson5 gün önce

CoinStats tracks my real PnL, not some Bayesian probability gap theory. Show me actual settlement volume.

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VALIX

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The best Polymarket Quant bot for copy trading with a 99.3% win rate The bot doesn't take risks it uses math and statistics to consistently achieve a 99% win probability. Using this approach, it has earned +$805,000 across 29,184 predictions with 99.3% accuracy Here's a breakdown of its algorithm: 1. Price Mispricing Detection δ = actual win probability − implied probability Traders constantly overpay for cheap contracts (0.1–50¢), but the main edge is concentrated in contracts (80–99¢) that's exactly where the bot trades 2. Expected Value (EV) Calculation EV = (P_win × Payout) − (P_loss × Cost) Shows whether a bet is worth placing regardless of the outcome of any single trade 3. Kelly Criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b The most powerful position sizing formula ever discovered for trading and prediction markets Tells the algorithm what percentage of your portfolio to put into each bet to win in the long run His profile: Those who copy traded him have already made $35,000 But those who followed him and used Poly_Parlay made over $100,000 How? By simply mirroring his trades with a multiplier Instead of opening single trades, they added them all to a basket, so the odds multiplied Bot access:

sopersone

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VALIX

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THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j,j) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j,j) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

HIDDEN PATTERN IN 72M POLYMARKET TRADES PRINTED +$865K ACROSS 29,000 PREDICTION No gambling-pure math, stats, strict sizing. How it works: 1. Mispricing 72M trades show: traders overpay for 0.1¢–50¢ contracts. Real edge lives in 80¢–99¢ where the bot trades most. Formula: δ = actual win rate − implied probability 2. Expected Value Tells if a trade is worth taking, regardless of any single outcome. Formula: EV = (P win × Payout) − (P lose × Cost) 3. Kelly Criterion Decides what % of portfolio to allocate for long-term growth. Formula: f* = (p·b − q) / Mispricing → EV → Kelly → trade. profile: start copy-trading the bot with Ares:

AdiiX

13,179 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

VALIX

86,436 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

VALIX

98,892 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)

VALIX

13,971 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$77,123 in 1 month His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. After a market opens, it chooses a side based on its own probability model and builds the position with limit orders 2. When the underlying asset’s movement changes, it buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or as a reversal 3. Holds the position until the market ends, capturing a consistent edge from the final directional skew His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and keeps growing his capital

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$77,123 in 1 month His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. After a market opens, it chooses a side based on its own probability model and builds the position with limit orders 2. When the underlying asset’s movement changes, it buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or as a reversal 3. Holds the position until the market ends, capturing a consistent edge from the final directional skew His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and keeps growing his capital

VALIX

11,210 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $143,000 on Polymarket His bot trades mispricings in short crypto Up/Down markets with a median trade size of $7.19 and an average edge of 2.0% It builds positions with limit orders and hedges part of the volume His strategy is simple: > Tracks BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP price movements and compares them with Polymarket prices > Enters a trade when Polymarket probabilities look undervalued > Buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or builds an arbitrage position This guy’s Polymarket account: With this strategy and clean execution, he keeps steadily growing his deposit

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $143,000 on Polymarket His bot trades mispricings in short crypto Up/Down markets with a median trade size of $7.19 and an average edge of 2.0% It builds positions with limit orders and hedges part of the volume His strategy is simple: > Tracks BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP price movements and compares them with Polymarket prices > Enters a trade when Polymarket probabilities look undervalued > Buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or builds an arbitrage position This guy’s Polymarket account: With this strategy and clean execution, he keeps steadily growing his deposit

VALIX

56,687 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

VALIX

152,711 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

VALIX

68,813 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $146,756 on Polymarket His bot makes 90 trades per hour and combines a hybrid of directional trading and two-sided arbitrage His strategy is simple: > Uses limit orders > Finds mispricing with his probability model > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or when it sees an arbitrage opportunity This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he turned $20k into $146.8k in 2 months of trading

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $146,756 on Polymarket His bot makes 90 trades per hour and combines a hybrid of directional trading and two-sided arbitrage His strategy is simple: > Uses limit orders > Finds mispricing with his probability model > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or when it sees an arbitrage opportunity This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he turned $20k into $146.8k in 2 months of trading

VALIX

28,118 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

$Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.$

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

AdiiX

174,137 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

VALIX

11,775 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce