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This guy built a Bayesian Quant model and it made $1,362 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$29,972 PnL in 22 days with only $29 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Several AI agents can handle... probability, sizing and execution: 1. Every new BTC signal updates the probability through Bayes The model starts with a prior probability and updates it whenever new market data arrives: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) If BTC momentum strengthens and the model moves fair Up from 54% to 62% while Polymarket still trades at 53¢, the system sees a 9¢ gap 2. Kelly decides position size f* = (bp - q) / b Where: p = model probability of winning q = 1 - p b = net payout for each unit risked f* = suggested fraction to allocate Higher probability and better payout increase f*, while a weaker edge pushes it toward zero This trader’s Polymarket account: tiredofwinning2much Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: 4,948 predictions with a 51% win rate Most profitable trades: $260 → $615 (+$355) $253 → $602 (+$349) $227 → $560 (+$333) A similar Bayesian Quant setup can be built with Grok Bot, using AI agents for probability updates, sizing and executionshow more

Daniro

5,523 subscribers

59,829 次观看 • 5 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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6 条评论

SkyDrop 的头像

SkyDrop5 天前

$29 average trade turning into nearly $30K PnL in 22 days is wild 👀 The Bayesian + Kelly approach makes this especially interesting. Definitely one to watch.

Daniro 的头像

Daniro5 天前

Although this trader has a small winning percentage and a small average trade size, frequently placing and executing limit orders allows him to build a large position, and both sides are yes and no, the main thing is that <100

VALIX 的头像

VALIX5 天前

This is a really interesting way to use Kelly with a Bayesian model

Daniro 的头像

Daniro5 天前

They form the basis of the software's risk / reward system, that is, they evaluate risks and potential profits. The bot also use time arbitrage and an entire ecosystem of servers and AI models, which allows them to make over 1k PNL every day

Verilla.eth 的头像

Verilla.eth5 天前

挺不错

Lea Thompson 的头像

Lea Thompson5 天前

CoinStats tracks my real PnL, not some Bayesian probability gap theory. Show me actual settlement volume.

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This trader built a trading bot on Polymarket and made +$149,305 His bot trades 5-minute crypto Up/Down markets using its own probability model and dynamic exposure management: 1. It looks for undervalued outcomes based on its model It pulls underlying asset data from external sources, compares it with the current Polymarket price, and enters a position when it sees mispricing The model factors in distance from the reference price, momentum, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow 2. When the signal weakens, it reduces the position or adds the opposite outcome If the initial edge disappears, it can partially reduce the position If the signal fully reverses, it starts buying the opposite outcome as a dynamic hedge His Polymarket nickname: trinity42 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this algorithm comes from the accuracy of its probability model and effective position management through hedging

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VALIX

27,231 次观看 • 1 个月前

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sopersone

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99,625 次观看 • 3 个月前

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Yarchi

22,966 次观看 • 3 个月前

HIDDEN PATTERN IN 72M POLYMARKET TRADES PRINTED +$865K ACROSS 29,000 PREDICTION No gambling-pure math, stats, strict sizing. How it works: 1. Mispricing 72M trades show: traders overpay for 0.1¢–50¢ contracts. Real edge lives in 80¢–99¢ where the bot trades most. Formula: δ = actual win rate − implied probability 2. Expected Value Tells if a trade is worth taking, regardless of any single outcome. Formula: EV = (P win × Payout) − (P lose × Cost) 3. Kelly Criterion Decides what % of portfolio to allocate for long-term growth. Formula: f* = (p·b − q) / Mispricing → EV → Kelly → trade. profile: start copy-trading the bot with Ares:

AdiiX

13,179 次观看 • 4 个月前

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VALIX

86,436 次观看 • 2 个月前

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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

VALIX

98,892 次观看 • 4 个月前

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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)

VALIX

13,971 次观看 • 1 个月前

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VALIX

11,210 次观看 • 1 个月前

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VALIX

56,687 次观看 • 3 个月前

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VALIX

152,711 次观看 • 4 个月前

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

VALIX

68,813 次观看 • 21 天前

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $146,756 on Polymarket His bot makes 90 trades per hour and combines a hybrid of directional trading and two-sided arbitrage His strategy is simple: > Uses limit orders > Finds mispricing with his probability model > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or when it sees an arbitrage opportunity This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he turned $20k into $146.8k in 2 months of trading

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $146,756 on Polymarket His bot makes 90 trades per hour and combines a hybrid of directional trading and two-sided arbitrage His strategy is simple: > Uses limit orders > Finds mispricing with his probability model > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or when it sees an arbitrage opportunity This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he turned $20k into $146.8k in 2 months of trading

VALIX

28,118 次观看 • 1 个月前

$Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.$

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

AdiiX

174,137 次观看 • 6 个月前

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

VALIX

11,775 次观看 • 4 个月前