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This guy used Grok Bot to build a Quant Z-Score system and it made $4,654 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$525,853 PnL in 113 days with about $1,142 per average trade, repeating the same setup 11 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Multiple... AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. Z-Score measures how unusual the current move is The bot tracks short term BTC returns and compares the latest move with recent price behavior Z = (r - μ) / σ Where: r = latest BTC return μ = average return over the recent window σ = standard deviation of those returns A large positive or negative Z tells the bot that the latest move is unusually strong relative to recent volatility It uses this as an entry filter and ignores moves that stay inside the normal range 2. Expected Value determines whether the setup is worth taking EV = P(win) × Payout - Entry Cost Positive EV means the estimated payout still exceeds the cost of taking the position As the price changes, the agents recalculate EV and stop adding once the advantage disappears Most profitable trades: $4,588 → $7,905 (+$3,316) $1,578 → $4,811 (+$3,233) $2,216 → $5,305 (+$3,090) The system uses Z-Score to filter the signal and Kelly Criterion to control how much exposure each setup receivesshow more

Daniro

5,996 subscribers

27,500 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

15 Kommentare

Profilbild von Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBack

Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBackvor 6 Tagen

@Dan1ro0 impressive stuff! Curious , how do you manage risk while running multiple AI agents simultaneously? That's where I hit a wall juggling my own setups.

Profilbild von Washington George

Washington Georgevor 7 Tagen

@Grok bot 核实真实性

Profilbild von Sophia ❤️

Sophia ❤️vor 7 Tagen

A 2.15 Sharpe on 5 minute BTC up/down markets is the part that should worry people. Those markets are near coin flips after fees, so the edge is likely thin and regime dependent. What happens to that Z-Score setup when volatility compresses?

Profilbild von wast3

wast3vor 7 Tagen

his best deals are very surprising

Profilbild von BallinGodz

BallinGodzvor 7 Tagen

Says at the top u made this using grok lol

Profilbild von PolyScripts | Prediction Market Intelligence

PolyScripts | Prediction Market Intelligencevor 7 Tagen

Automating this edge right here.

Profilbild von Forha

Forhavor 6 Tagen

overhyped and overpriced - anyone else think this is just hype marketing machine?

Profilbild von Doug Millett 🪴

Doug Millett 🪴vor 7 Tagen

schizo llm psychosis gif of the week award

Profilbild von Silent Soldier

Silent Soldiervor 7 Tagen

I need it

Profilbild von VALIX

VALIXvor 7 Tagen

I’ve heard about z-score a few times before. I think it’s time I learned more about it

Profilbild von PromptEdge

PromptEdgevor 6 Tagen

We keep upgrading the model. But when was the last time we upgraded the idea?

Profilbild von ♡ sophia p

♡ sophia pvor 7 Tagen

This is so true

Profilbild von Lydia

Lydiavor 7 Tagen

Same math as slot influencers. 87% win rate means nothing without avg loss size.

Profilbild von sofi

sofivor 7 Tagen

Facts!

Profilbild von Inspector fomo

Inspector fomovor 7 Tagen

Polymarket fees will eat that EV. The stated payout ignores the cost of every trade.

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Daniro

17,435 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j,j) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j,j) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $74,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short-term Up/Down markets through high-frequency accumulation of two-sided positions with directional exposure His strategy has six steps: 1. At the start of each 5-minute market, it records the current Bitcoin or Ethereum price 2. It then tracks the asset’s movement, remaining time, short-term momentum, and volatility 3. Based on this data, it calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 4. It buys an outcome when the market price appears undervalued 5. If the asset’s price direction changes, the bot may first buy Up and then start buying Down 6. The opposite side partially hedges the accumulated position, while the remaining directional exposure creates the edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he maintains positive expected value and consistently grows his deposit

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $74,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short-term Up/Down markets through high-frequency accumulation of two-sided positions with directional exposure His strategy has six steps: 1. At the start of each 5-minute market, it records the current Bitcoin or Ethereum price 2. It then tracks the asset’s movement, remaining time, short-term momentum, and volatility 3. Based on this data, it calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 4. It buys an outcome when the market price appears undervalued 5. If the asset’s price direction changes, the bot may first buy Up and then start buying Down 6. The opposite side partially hedges the accumulated position, while the remaining directional exposure creates the edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he maintains positive expected value and consistently grows his deposit

VALIX

25,607 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set

VALIX

77,671 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

HIDDEN PATTERN IN 72M POLYMARKET TRADES PRINTED +$865K ACROSS 29,000 PREDICTION No gambling-pure math, stats, strict sizing. How it works: 1. Mispricing 72M trades show: traders overpay for 0.1¢–50¢ contracts. Real edge lives in 80¢–99¢ where the bot trades most. Formula: δ = actual win rate − implied probability 2. Expected Value Tells if a trade is worth taking, regardless of any single outcome. Formula: EV = (P win × Payout) − (P lose × Cost) 3. Kelly Criterion Decides what % of portfolio to allocate for long-term growth. Formula: f* = (p·b − q) / Mispricing → EV → Kelly → trade. profile: start copy-trading the bot with Ares:

AdiiX

13,179 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

This guy used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$115,533 on Polymarket Since Mar 25, this wallet has been averaging about $1,409 in profit per day while running at roughly 29 trades per hour 56,703 predictions with a 60% win rate in 82 days This trader’s Polymarket account: The bot strategy is simple: >It keeps scanning for markets where the price has not fully caught up yet >enters before the repricing is complete and keeps deploying the same setup across a huge number of entries >the edge on each trade is small, but the constant repetition is what pushes the curve higher over time Most profitable trades: $1,166 → $2,288 (+$1,122, +96.19%) $737 → $1,731 (+$994, +134.96%) $838 → $1,821 (+$983, +117.4%) It is a repeatable high-frequency process that keeps turning delayed pricing into steady PnL

This guy used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$115,533 on Polymarket Since Mar 25, this wallet has been averaging about $1,409 in profit per day while running at roughly 29 trades per hour 56,703 predictions with a 60% win rate in 82 days This trader’s Polymarket account: The bot strategy is simple: >It keeps scanning for markets where the price has not fully caught up yet >enters before the repricing is complete and keeps deploying the same setup across a huge number of entries >the edge on each trade is small, but the constant repetition is what pushes the curve higher over time Most profitable trades: $1,166 → $2,288 (+$1,122, +96.19%) $737 → $1,731 (+$994, +134.96%) $838 → $1,821 (+$983, +117.4%) It is a repeatable high-frequency process that keeps turning delayed pricing into steady PnL

Daniro

31,221 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $143,000 on Polymarket His bot trades mispricings in short crypto Up/Down markets with a median trade size of $7.19 and an average edge of 2.0% It builds positions with limit orders and hedges part of the volume His strategy is simple: > Tracks BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP price movements and compares them with Polymarket prices > Enters a trade when Polymarket probabilities look undervalued > Buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or builds an arbitrage position This guy’s Polymarket account: With this strategy and clean execution, he keeps steadily growing his deposit

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $143,000 on Polymarket His bot trades mispricings in short crypto Up/Down markets with a median trade size of $7.19 and an average edge of 2.0% It builds positions with limit orders and hedges part of the volume His strategy is simple: > Tracks BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP price movements and compares them with Polymarket prices > Enters a trade when Polymarket probabilities look undervalued > Buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or builds an arbitrage position This guy’s Polymarket account: With this strategy and clean execution, he keeps steadily growing his deposit

VALIX

56,687 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten