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🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE ENDS The S&P 500 keeps hitting all-time highs. But almost nobody sees the systemic crisis brewing. Wall Street has built a giant debt pyramid. Just like in 2000. How the scam works: Nvidia pours money into AI startups. Those startups borrow billions from... Apollo, Athene and Blackstone using Nvidia chips as collateral. Then they give that money right back to Nvidia to buy more chips. On paper, it's a masterpiece: Nvidia reports record sales. Startups show explosive growth. Tech stocks skyrocket. In reality, a big part of the demand is fake. It's a circular loop. And it only works as long as the chip shortage lasts. When Nvidia drops new chips, the old ones used as collateral will lose value fast. Even worse: most companies still aren't making enough money from AI to justify these huge costs. This is not "if". It's already starting. Remember, I warned about the BTC $82k bull trap and Saylor's sell-off before it happened. My next call will be the biggest one this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.show more

MARMOT

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342,750 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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51 Comments

Claude4 months ago

Very simple, seen dozens of times since 1534 (first stock exchange).

MARMOT4 months ago

Yep, this time is no different

Claude4 months ago

As usual bud 🤷‍♂️ Most don’t understand that Markets earn in BOTH DIRECTIONS

Macro Bombastic4 months ago

Interesting take but I think the AI revolution is just getting started, the real value isn't in the hype it's in what these chips can actually do

MARMOT4 months ago

The AI revolution is real, but so is the bubble. Remember the Dot-com era: the Internet literally changed the world, but the tech sector still wiped out 80% of its value. Separating technology from market hype is key.

GolfLifeMetals4 months ago

Do the math on Revenue and Net Earnings on companies in the AI boom vs the Dot Com bubble. There are no similarities, back then they were going up on promises, now they are going up on execution.

MARMOT4 months ago

On paper, yeah, the earnings look real. But when most of that revenue comes from a circle of venture debt and recycling chips, it's just another version of the same old bubble.

INSIDER4 months ago

Nobody sees the crisis coming. Except the guy posting this thread, and the 47 other people who called the last 12 crashes.

MARMOT4 months ago

I didn't call the last 12 crashes. Just the local tops you probably bought 😉

Donnie Brasco4 months ago

But your name is Web3 and that didn’t turn out well

MARMOT4 months ago

Ok KJM_2024 😀

Donnie Brasco4 months ago

;) I think the stock will keep up for a while. Market is now much more global than 26 years ago, a selling opportunity is a buying for another one somewhere in the world. That’s why the market only goes up

MARMOT4 months ago

Yeah, but we're in a euphoria phase. It always ends the same way. I think three big IPOs could be the end of this rally.

Herschel Curie4 months ago

You forgot, all the biggest IPO’s have yet to it the market. They will replace the Mag 7 and run the market up like never seen before.

MARMOT4 months ago

It's will be the peak of this cycle.

Hydrogen Bomb4 months ago

You’re calling AI a bubble while you used AI to write your post 🤣🤣🤣 fcking loser

killa kev4 months ago

Terrible analysis most of Nvda’s investments are in component manufacturers. That is done to accelerate their productions to alleviate shortages. Amd on the other hand that was egregious with OpenAI and meta. Secondly w/Nvda in neoclouds $2-5 bn into a $100bn spend is nada

Bottom Surgery Billionaire4 months ago

@grok what is 82k btc bull trap and saylor sell off

Sauvro4 months ago

Everything comes down to one word. Liquidity. If the Fed takes away liquidity, this whole shit starts coming down. If not, enjoy the music. There’s other long term things to worry about.

on a coffee break4 months ago

You realize AI is still in the womb stages right? Ex. AI can’t even follow what I am doing on my screen in realtime, to help with a task I’m working on. I have to tell it what I am doing. We haven’t even started. I won’t be alive to see its peak bro.

Mark Map4 months ago

4/ d) the 3 month T bill yield being higher than the 10 year Treasury note yield (yield spread inversion) within 24 month proximity to variables a, b, & c Signaling record :

RSaler4 months ago

How do the start-ups show profits? They borrow from PE then purchase NVDA chips with those funds. What I'm I missing?

Mia4 months ago

“But almost nobody sees the systemic crisis brewing” this is all this app ever talks about lmfao

The Stock Up4 months ago

$NVDA 25x forward earnings growing 65%+ is not what a dot-com bubble stock looks like. Cisco peaked at 100x+ revenue in 2000 with no real earnings. this is a different animal and the bears who keep drawing the same chart have been wrong for 3 years running. 🔥

CryptoKayvian4 months ago

This is how you know we keep going these clowns are always wrong

Kabuki🔴4 months ago

🫣

MARMOT4 months ago

👀

toni4 months ago

The bubble narrative misses the real shift. Nvidia's not the problem - it's infrastructure for the next computing era. Unlike 2000's vaporware, these chips power real AI deployments generating actual revenue today.

A💎4 months ago

omg. Does anyone ANYONE write their own shit anymore? ANYONE?

Nonzee4 months ago

👍

MARMOT4 months ago

Thanks

CryptoKayvian4 months ago

Do the bubble bursts with a lot of stocks still 50% from their highs got it

Only2Words4 months ago

Which Saylor sell-off? 32 BTC? Really?

MARMOT4 months ago

Look at the chart lol

Only2Words4 months ago

Your SP chart? You didn't inflate 2000's 1,527 level. If you consider 4% yearly correction for 26 years today's levels would need to be divided by 2,77. That's 7,700/2.77 = 2,780 If 5%, same calculation yields 2,169 The market is high, but not overvalued, PEs are actually lower. IMHO.

MARMOT4 months ago

We were talking about Saylor, so obviously I meant the bitcoin chart...

Only2Words4 months ago

Oh, ok. I thought you meant your SP chart, which could make sense, as some people are saying it's the IPOs draining liquidity from crypto. To which I disagree, but whatever.

Wheezy Insights4 months ago

Danger signs ahead, Kalshi

MARMOT4 months ago

Exactly.

Tony Research4 months ago

💪

MARMOT4 months ago

Thanks

Mark Map4 months ago

3/ b) the YTD S&P500 return being negative into June 30th / July 31 c) variables a & b falling within "Presidential term years" 1, 3, or 4

P T4 months ago

look at the amount of money been printing

Hal McIntosh4 months ago

OK yes all good, and I was there on a desk living the pain of various bubbles. Two things different this time, which won't change the outcome but might change the timing and I'm interested in your thoughts. First, internet bubble was profitless and this one is a profit bubble so the dynamics will be different. Second, passive and passive proxies are now between 50% and 65% of effective volume and they don't care about price. So it could go much further until something collapses flow. Already becoming the greatest bubble in history on many metrics. What's the catalyst?

Nash4 months ago

using h100s as collateral isn't the scary part; the scarier part is apollo underwriting revenue on 3-year inference contracts nobody can price once blackwell racks ship.

Phantom Economics4 months ago

Concentration risk is real. 2000 comparisons are lazy. That's a diversification problem not a bubble.

Mark Map4 months ago

6/ As no process is perfect, this didn't catch the 1961, 2000, 2007, or 2021 declines. Yet it may help give a "heads up" - especially when the yield spread goes into inversion ( yield spread "normalized" back in Dec 2024 )

.4 months ago

Holy yap, all this bs and then proceeds to show a chart that been going UP for ages, fkin idiot shows a 590% profit and then a 49% red and thinks we should be scared of the next one after a 900% profit???

Volt FX4 months ago

Chip-collateralized circular lending is a real and underreported risk. But hyperscalers buying with operating cash flow are the majority of NVDA revenue, not startup debt loops. Real risk, overstated conclusion, "turn on notifications" at the end.

jimmywang094 months ago

Everyone knows this it’s some secret only you can see lmao. Nobody cares they all in on it including share holders

Rumple4 months ago

You do realize that we are in the middle of that parabolic chart and that down trend is what’s happening right now before we go up 60% more.

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🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Anthropic will go public in November at a $2T valuation. The biggest IPO in market history. And Wall Street is already lining up the buyers before it happens. I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them build demand for an IPO this aggressively: Anthropic is preparing to raise $100 BILLION. Nvidia is lining up as much as $10 BILLION as an anchor investor. Read that again: The company selling the chips powering the AI boom is about to become one of the biggest buyers of the AI company going public. Before the public even gets in. Why? Because Anthropic does not just create demand for Anthropic. It pulls liquidity from everywhere else: - Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO. - Funds raise cash for allocation. - Institutions rebalance portfolios. - Everyone wants exposure to the biggest AI deal in history. But here is where most people are looking at it wrong. They’re asking: WHAT WILL ANTHROPIC TAKE MONEY FROM? I’m asking: WHERE WILL ALL THAT MONEY GO NEXT? That capital funds more compute: More compute means more chips. More chips = more data centers. More data centers = more electricity, grid infrastructure and raw materials. The chain is simple: ANTHROPIC → CHIPS → DATA CENTERS → POWER → COPPER That is where the opportunity starts. The first phase of the AI boom was about the models: ChatGPT. Claude. Gemini. The next phase is about the physical infrastructure needed to keep them running. Electricity. Power grids. Semiconductors. Data centers. Cooling. Copper. I told you to buy copper months ago. We already locked in BIG profits. And that wasn’t random: AI does not run on prompts. It runs on physical infrastructure. Now look at Nvidia: AI companies spend billions buying Nvidia chips. Nvidia makes billions from that demand. Now Nvidia is preparing to put as much as $10 BILLION BACK into Anthropic. AI money → Nvidia → Anthropic → more compute → more infrastructure A $100B raise does not stop at Anthropic. It works its way through the entire AI supply chain. The easy AI trade was buying the obvious names. The next trade is finding the bottlenecks BEFORE everyone else realizes they are bottlenecks. That is what I’m looking for now. That is where the next opportunity will be. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. I’m already watching where this capital is moving next. When I find the next opportunity worth taking, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

123,890 views • 25 days ago

Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

Wall St Engine

824,912 views • 11 months ago

$Nvidia just invested $2 billion in CoreWeave yesterday. CoreWeave's entire business is renting out data centers packed with Nvidia GPUs. So Nvidia literally gave money to a company that EXISTS to buy Nvidia chips. Then promised to buy $6.3 billion of CoreWeave's unused capacity BACK. This is the most sophisticated circular financing scheme in tech history. Let me repeat that: Nvidia FUNDS CoreWeave → CoreWeave BUYS Nvidia chips → Nvidia BUYS BACK CoreWeave's unused capacity The money goes in a perfect circle. Nvidia → CoreWeave → Nvidia → CoreWeave → Nvidia Every transaction gets booked as "revenue" on both sides. But the cash just keeps rotating. In Bloomberg's own words: "circular financing deals that have lifted valuations of AI companies and fueled concerns about a bubble." Jensen Huang even went on CNBC after the announcement and accidentally admitted the truth: "We've invested $2 billion into CoreWeave, but the amount of funding that needs to be raised yet to support that five gigawatts is really quite significant. We're investing a small percentage of the amount that ultimately has to go and be provided." Translation: CoreWeave is underwater. The $2 billion is a fraction of what they actually need. CoreWeave has signed over $40 billion in contracts. $22.4 billion with OpenAI. $14.2 billion with Meta. $6.3 billion guaranteed purchase from Nvidia. But they don't have the capacity built yet. They're signing contracts for infrastructure that doesn't exist, funded by debt, backed by Nvidia's promise to buy unused capacity. And this goes deeper... CoreWeave started as a Bitcoin mining company called Atlantic Crypto in 2017. After the 2018 crypto crash, they "pivoted" to AI. Crypto crashes. AI booms. Former miners become "AI infrastructure experts" overnight. Now they're signing $40 billion contracts. Nvidia's play is obvious once you see it: Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are building their OWN AI chips. Trainium. TPU. Maia. So Nvidia's building a "shadow cloud" of smaller providers who are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Fund them. Lock them into contracts. Guarantee their purchases. When hyperscalers threaten to leave, Nvidia says "we don't need you, we have CoreWeave." It's vertical integration disguised as investment. But yesterday, something broke. CoreWeave's stock jumped 6% on the news. Bitcoin miners who pivoted to AI infrastructure? Crushed. CleanSpark, IREN, TeraWulf all down 10-15%. Because Nvidia just picked its winner. CoreWeave gets priority GPU access. Everyone else is irrelevant. The smart money already left. SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion Nvidia stake in November. CEO said he was "crying" to sell. Michael Burry has $1 billion in puts betting Nvidia crashes. Peter Thiel exited his position. They saw the circular financing and got out. Nvidia funds CoreWeave, CoreWeave buys Nvidia chips, Nvidia buys CoreWeave's capacity... This works as long as: 1. Nvidia keeps funding 2. CoreWeave keeps buying 3. Customers keep renting But the second ONE of those breaks, the whole loop collapses. If CoreWeave can't raise more capital, they can't build capacity. If they can't build capacity, they can't fulfill $40 billion in contracts. If they can't fulfill contracts, Meta and OpenAI walk. If customers walk, Nvidia's $6.3 billion capacity guarantee becomes a LIABILITY. This isn't about whether AI is real. AI IS real. This is about whether the infrastructure buildout is real or just financial engineering. Nvidia manufactures demand by funding customers who buy Nvidia products. Those customers sign contracts they can't fulfill without more funding. Nvidia guarantees to buy back unused capacity. Money circulates. Everyone books revenue. But NOBODY asks where actual demand is. This is either the most innovative infrastructure partnership in history, or the most sophisticated ponzi scheme since 2008. The next six months will tell us which.$

Nvidia just invested $2 billion in CoreWeave yesterday. CoreWeave's entire business is renting out data centers packed with Nvidia GPUs. So Nvidia literally gave money to a company that EXISTS to buy Nvidia chips. Then promised to buy $6.3 billion of CoreWeave's unused capacity BACK. This is the most sophisticated circular financing scheme in tech history. Let me repeat that: Nvidia FUNDS CoreWeave → CoreWeave BUYS Nvidia chips → Nvidia BUYS BACK CoreWeave's unused capacity The money goes in a perfect circle. Nvidia → CoreWeave → Nvidia → CoreWeave → Nvidia Every transaction gets booked as "revenue" on both sides. But the cash just keeps rotating. In Bloomberg's own words: "circular financing deals that have lifted valuations of AI companies and fueled concerns about a bubble." Jensen Huang even went on CNBC after the announcement and accidentally admitted the truth: "We've invested $2 billion into CoreWeave, but the amount of funding that needs to be raised yet to support that five gigawatts is really quite significant. We're investing a small percentage of the amount that ultimately has to go and be provided." Translation: CoreWeave is underwater. The $2 billion is a fraction of what they actually need. CoreWeave has signed over $40 billion in contracts. $22.4 billion with OpenAI. $14.2 billion with Meta. $6.3 billion guaranteed purchase from Nvidia. But they don't have the capacity built yet. They're signing contracts for infrastructure that doesn't exist, funded by debt, backed by Nvidia's promise to buy unused capacity. And this goes deeper... CoreWeave started as a Bitcoin mining company called Atlantic Crypto in 2017. After the 2018 crypto crash, they "pivoted" to AI. Crypto crashes. AI booms. Former miners become "AI infrastructure experts" overnight. Now they're signing $40 billion contracts. Nvidia's play is obvious once you see it: Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are building their OWN AI chips. Trainium. TPU. Maia. So Nvidia's building a "shadow cloud" of smaller providers who are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Fund them. Lock them into contracts. Guarantee their purchases. When hyperscalers threaten to leave, Nvidia says "we don't need you, we have CoreWeave." It's vertical integration disguised as investment. But yesterday, something broke. CoreWeave's stock jumped 6% on the news. Bitcoin miners who pivoted to AI infrastructure? Crushed. CleanSpark, IREN, TeraWulf all down 10-15%. Because Nvidia just picked its winner. CoreWeave gets priority GPU access. Everyone else is irrelevant. The smart money already left. SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion Nvidia stake in November. CEO said he was "crying" to sell. Michael Burry has $1 billion in puts betting Nvidia crashes. Peter Thiel exited his position. They saw the circular financing and got out. Nvidia funds CoreWeave, CoreWeave buys Nvidia chips, Nvidia buys CoreWeave's capacity... This works as long as: 1. Nvidia keeps funding 2. CoreWeave keeps buying 3. Customers keep renting But the second ONE of those breaks, the whole loop collapses. If CoreWeave can't raise more capital, they can't build capacity. If they can't build capacity, they can't fulfill $40 billion in contracts. If they can't fulfill contracts, Meta and OpenAI walk. If customers walk, Nvidia's $6.3 billion capacity guarantee becomes a LIABILITY. This isn't about whether AI is real. AI IS real. This is about whether the infrastructure buildout is real or just financial engineering. Nvidia manufactures demand by funding customers who buy Nvidia products. Those customers sign contracts they can't fulfill without more funding. Nvidia guarantees to buy back unused capacity. Money circulates. Everyone books revenue. But NOBODY asks where actual demand is. This is either the most innovative infrastructure partnership in history, or the most sophisticated ponzi scheme since 2008. The next six months will tell us which.

Ricardo

71,585 views • 8 months ago

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!! The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs. Nvidia is leading the charge. But almost nobody is paying attention to the real problem. A huge AI bubble is inflating at incredible speed and about to pop. This has happened before. 2000: Cisco was the "god of the internet" with routers, switches, infrastructure. The stock crashed 90% and never fully recovered. Today: Nvidia is the "god of AI" with chips, data centers, infrastructure. Same role. Same script. But the risk is much bigger. Let me explain why. This time, concentration is extreme. The "Magnificent 7" make up 30% of the S&P 500. If AI falls, the whole index falls. Big Tech CapEx is exploding. $650 billion only in 2026. But where is the ROI? Nobody knows. If Google and Microsoft don't show real profits, they will cut orders. Then Nvidia collapses. Then the whole index follows. Japan, holding trillions in U.S. Treasuries, is about to hike rates. When they sell, global liquidity evaporates. Risk assets get crushed first. This is not 2000. This is 2000 with leverage, concentration, and a liquidity shock loading. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K top in October. Turn on notifications. When the AI bubble bursts, I'll call it here publicly, like I always do.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!! The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs. Nvidia is leading the charge. But almost nobody is paying attention to the real problem. A huge AI bubble is inflating at incredible speed and about to pop. This has happened before. 2000: Cisco was the "god of the internet" with routers, switches, infrastructure. The stock crashed 90% and never fully recovered. Today: Nvidia is the "god of AI" with chips, data centers, infrastructure. Same role. Same script. But the risk is much bigger. Let me explain why. This time, concentration is extreme. The "Magnificent 7" make up 30% of the S&P 500. If AI falls, the whole index falls. Big Tech CapEx is exploding. $650 billion only in 2026. But where is the ROI? Nobody knows. If Google and Microsoft don't show real profits, they will cut orders. Then Nvidia collapses. Then the whole index follows. Japan, holding trillions in U.S. Treasuries, is about to hike rates. When they sell, global liquidity evaporates. Risk assets get crushed first. This is not 2000. This is 2000 with leverage, concentration, and a liquidity shock loading. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K top in October. Turn on notifications. When the AI bubble bursts, I'll call it here publicly, like I always do.

MARMOT

365,263 views • 5 months ago

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Ricardo

162,581 views • 5 months ago

PROOF THAT AI IS A PONZI SCHEME (and why it's the reason for Bitcoin's crash): Nvidia just posted the most insane earnings in tech history. $31.9 billion in profit. $57 billion in revenue. 65% profit jump year-over-year. Stock rallied immediately. Then 18 hours later, it dropped 5%. And when people looked closer at the numbers, they found something absolutely wild... The Unpaid Bills Nobody Talked About: Nvidia's accounts receivable jumped to $33.4 billion. That's up 89% in one year. Translation: $33 billion worth of "sales" that haven't been paid yet. The average wait time for payment went from 46 days to 53 days. That extra week of waiting? $10.4 billion that may never turn into actual cash. They're booking revenue. But customers aren't paying. The Inventory That Shouldn't Exist: Unsold chip inventory surged 32% in three months to $19.8 billion. Meanwhile, Nvidia's CEO keeps saying demand is "insane" and they can't make chips fast enough. If demand is so crazy, why is inventory piling up? Either customers aren't buying with cash, or the demand story is bullshit. The Profit vs Cash Problem: Nvidia reported $19.3 billion in profit. But only generated $14.5 billion in actual cash flow. That's a $4.8 billion gap. Their profit-to-cash conversion is 75%. TSMC and AMD? Over 95%. When profit doesn't turn into cash, something's wrong. Here's Where It Gets Insane: The money is going in circles. And the same dollars are being counted as revenue multiple times. Follow this: - Nvidia gave xAI $2 billion - xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips - Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI - OpenAI committed $50 billion to Microsoft's cloud - Microsoft ordered $100 billion in Nvidia chips for that cloud - Oracle gave OpenAI $300 billion in cloud credits - OpenAI used those credits to order Nvidia chips for Oracle data centers The money goes in a circle. Nvidia → xAI → Nvidia Microsoft → OpenAI → Microsoft → Nvidia Oracle → OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia Everyone books revenue. Nobody's actually paying cash. It's financial engineering disguised as growth. The Smart Money Already Left: Peter Thiel sold his Nvidia stake. SoftBank dumped massive positions. Michael Burry (the guy who called 2008) bought $1.1 billion in put options betting Nvidia crashes. They saw the numbers before everyone else did. And they got out. The Bitcoin Collapse: Bitcoin crashed almost 30% from $126,000 to $89,567. Why does this matter? AI startups use Bitcoin as collateral for loans. If Nvidia's crisis deepens, those startups get margin called. They're forced to sell Bitcoin to cover. Which crashes Bitcoin further. Which triggers more margin calls. Analysts think it could hit $52,000 if this unravels. The MIT Reality Check: OpenAI is valued at $157 billion. MIT released a study saying 95% of AI projects will never be profitable. Not "might struggle." NEVER be profitable. The entire sector is built on inflated expectations. What Happens Next: February 2026: Nvidia's Q4 report shows how many bills are 60+ days overdue. March 2026: Credit agencies start downgrading Nvidia and related companies. April 2026: First earnings restatements hit. The whole thing unwinds. Some experts are calling this a Ponzi scheme. No formal fraud investigation yet. But the structure is there: - Use new investor money to pay old investors - Inflate revenue with circular deals - Book sales before receiving cash - Keep the music playing until someone asks for their money Nvidia executives deny everything. Say it's real growth. Real demand. Real transformation. But the numbers don't lie. $10.4 billion in delayed payments. $19.8 billion in unsold inventory. $4.8 billion profit-to-cash gap. Circular funding loops inflating revenue. This is either the biggest tech transformation in history, or the biggest financial engineering scam since 2008. The next three months will tell us which one it is. What are you betting on?

PROOF THAT AI IS A PONZI SCHEME (and why it's the reason for Bitcoin's crash): Nvidia just posted the most insane earnings in tech history. $31.9 billion in profit. $57 billion in revenue. 65% profit jump year-over-year. Stock rallied immediately. Then 18 hours later, it dropped 5%. And when people looked closer at the numbers, they found something absolutely wild... The Unpaid Bills Nobody Talked About: Nvidia's accounts receivable jumped to $33.4 billion. That's up 89% in one year. Translation: $33 billion worth of "sales" that haven't been paid yet. The average wait time for payment went from 46 days to 53 days. That extra week of waiting? $10.4 billion that may never turn into actual cash. They're booking revenue. But customers aren't paying. The Inventory That Shouldn't Exist: Unsold chip inventory surged 32% in three months to $19.8 billion. Meanwhile, Nvidia's CEO keeps saying demand is "insane" and they can't make chips fast enough. If demand is so crazy, why is inventory piling up? Either customers aren't buying with cash, or the demand story is bullshit. The Profit vs Cash Problem: Nvidia reported $19.3 billion in profit. But only generated $14.5 billion in actual cash flow. That's a $4.8 billion gap. Their profit-to-cash conversion is 75%. TSMC and AMD? Over 95%. When profit doesn't turn into cash, something's wrong. Here's Where It Gets Insane: The money is going in circles. And the same dollars are being counted as revenue multiple times. Follow this: - Nvidia gave xAI $2 billion - xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips - Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI - OpenAI committed $50 billion to Microsoft's cloud - Microsoft ordered $100 billion in Nvidia chips for that cloud - Oracle gave OpenAI $300 billion in cloud credits - OpenAI used those credits to order Nvidia chips for Oracle data centers The money goes in a circle. Nvidia → xAI → Nvidia Microsoft → OpenAI → Microsoft → Nvidia Oracle → OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia Everyone books revenue. Nobody's actually paying cash. It's financial engineering disguised as growth. The Smart Money Already Left: Peter Thiel sold his Nvidia stake. SoftBank dumped massive positions. Michael Burry (the guy who called 2008) bought $1.1 billion in put options betting Nvidia crashes. They saw the numbers before everyone else did. And they got out. The Bitcoin Collapse: Bitcoin crashed almost 30% from $126,000 to $89,567. Why does this matter? AI startups use Bitcoin as collateral for loans. If Nvidia's crisis deepens, those startups get margin called. They're forced to sell Bitcoin to cover. Which crashes Bitcoin further. Which triggers more margin calls. Analysts think it could hit $52,000 if this unravels. The MIT Reality Check: OpenAI is valued at $157 billion. MIT released a study saying 95% of AI projects will never be profitable. Not "might struggle." NEVER be profitable. The entire sector is built on inflated expectations. What Happens Next: February 2026: Nvidia's Q4 report shows how many bills are 60+ days overdue. March 2026: Credit agencies start downgrading Nvidia and related companies. April 2026: First earnings restatements hit. The whole thing unwinds. Some experts are calling this a Ponzi scheme. No formal fraud investigation yet. But the structure is there: - Use new investor money to pay old investors - Inflate revenue with circular deals - Book sales before receiving cash - Keep the music playing until someone asks for their money Nvidia executives deny everything. Say it's real growth. Real demand. Real transformation. But the numbers don't lie. $10.4 billion in delayed payments. $19.8 billion in unsold inventory. $4.8 billion profit-to-cash gap. Circular funding loops inflating revenue. This is either the biggest tech transformation in history, or the biggest financial engineering scam since 2008. The next three months will tell us which one it is. What are you betting on?

Ricardo

212,902 views • 10 months ago

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

291,644 views • 3 months ago

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

WhaleTwits

52,667 views • 3 months ago

$🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY WIERD IS HAPPENING. The S&P 500 keeps printing new highs. Everyone is celebrating. Nobody is looking at what's actually holding it up. Semiconductor stocks are now worth $13.4 trillion. 19.7% of the entire index. Five years ago that number was closer to 5%. It quadrupled in a single cycle on a single bet. AI. And here's the number that should concern everyone. AI chips generate 50% of all semiconductor revenue. They represent less than 0.2% of total chip shipments. Half the revenue, a fraction of the volume, trillions in market cap sitting on top of a sliver of actual production. Three companies are carrying all of it. Nvidia. Broadcom. TSMC. The same names in every major institutional portfolio simultaneously. Everyone owns them, nobody can afford to be the first one out. And the way the money moves inside this system should sound familiar. Big players fund AI startups. AI startups spend that money on Big Tech infrastructure. Big Tech reports record AI revenue. Valuations justify the next round, the same dollar completes the loop and gets counted as growth every time. We watched this exact dynamic play out once before. 2000. A handful of tech companies carried the entire market. Valuations made no sense, narratives did the work that fundamentals couldn't. Then one company missed earnings, then another, then the S&P lost 50% and the Nasdaq lost 78%. The current setup is more concentrated, the valuations are more extreme. And one cut in AI spending is all it takes to start the unwind. I called the $16K Bitcoin bottom. I called the $126K top. Every major turn for 15 years public, before the move. The next call is already forming. Follow now and turn on notifications, you'll understand why that matters sooner than you think.$

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY WIERD IS HAPPENING. The S&P 500 keeps printing new highs. Everyone is celebrating. Nobody is looking at what's actually holding it up. Semiconductor stocks are now worth $13.4 trillion. 19.7% of the entire index. Five years ago that number was closer to 5%. It quadrupled in a single cycle on a single bet. AI. And here's the number that should concern everyone. AI chips generate 50% of all semiconductor revenue. They represent less than 0.2% of total chip shipments. Half the revenue, a fraction of the volume, trillions in market cap sitting on top of a sliver of actual production. Three companies are carrying all of it. Nvidia. Broadcom. TSMC. The same names in every major institutional portfolio simultaneously. Everyone owns them, nobody can afford to be the first one out. And the way the money moves inside this system should sound familiar. Big players fund AI startups. AI startups spend that money on Big Tech infrastructure. Big Tech reports record AI revenue. Valuations justify the next round, the same dollar completes the loop and gets counted as growth every time. We watched this exact dynamic play out once before. 2000. A handful of tech companies carried the entire market. Valuations made no sense, narratives did the work that fundamentals couldn't. Then one company missed earnings, then another, then the S&P lost 50% and the Nasdaq lost 78%. The current setup is more concentrated, the valuations are more extreme. And one cut in AI spending is all it takes to start the unwind. I called the $16K Bitcoin bottom. I called the $126K top. Every major turn for 15 years public, before the move. The next call is already forming. Follow now and turn on notifications, you'll understand why that matters sooner than you think.

Hanzo ㊗️

18,356 views • 3 months ago

Nvidia found a way to sell itself its own chips and book it as growth. Jensen Huang calling the risk "hearsay" is the only thing keeping the scheme alive. Let me show you the loop: Nvidia takes about $100 billion of its own cash and invests it in OpenAI, Anthropic, and Elon's xAI. Those companies spend that money buying Nvidia chips. Nvidia books the purchase as revenue and posts record sales. The record sales push Nvidia's stock to $5.3 trillion, the most valuable company on Earth. And that soaring stock becomes the collateral and the currency that funds the next round of investment into the very same customers. Round and round it goes. The money leaves Nvidia's left pocket and comes back in its right pocket, and the market treats the round trip as brand-new demand. Now here's the problem with a machine like this: It only spins while everyone believes. The demand has to look real, the future has to look bright, and the customers burning billions have to look like winners. A loop like this has exactly one enemy, and it's fear. A competitor can't stop it. A regulator can't stop it. Only fear can. The day the market decides AI might slow down, or might be dangerous enough to pause, the loop runs in reverse. The stock falls, the collateral shrinks, the investments sour, and the cash-burning customers can't buy another chip. When Jensen calls a 10% chance of catastrophe "hearsay, not grounded in science," when he insists we accelerate and never slow down, when he swears the labs he funds are "extraordinary," he is doing exactly one thing: He is defending the one belief his entire machine runs on. Fear is the only thing that can break him, so he goes on television to break the fear first. That's why I think he's the calmest man in AI. Everyone else is exposed to whether the technology works. Jensen is exposed to whether you stay confident. And your confidence is the most valuable thing Nvidia owns, worth more than any chip in any data center. So when the most conflicted man in the industry swears the danger is imaginary, I hear a man guarding a machine. And the machine only lives while you stay calm.

Ricardo

10,214 views • 20 days ago

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE CRASH BEGINS The S&P 500 is tracing the exact same peak pattern as 2007. Back then, Blackstone went public at the absolute top of that cycle. The financial crisis followed months later. Now SpaceX just did the exact same thing. Here's how it works: When a mega-company goes public, it vacuums up massive amounts of capital. Investors dump other assets just to buy the "IPO of the decade." This drains liquidity from the rest of the market and starves the bull run of its fuel. That's what's happening right now. The Magnificent 7 lost $2.3 trillion in a single month. Microsoft: -20% Nvidia: -13% Apple: -8% The playbook never changes. 2000: AOL & Time Warner merged → dot-com bubble peak. 2011: Glencore went public → commodities supercycle top. 2021: Coinbase IPO'd → crypto cycle peak. This always ends the same way. But now it's even worse because Anthropic and OpenAI are waiting in line. Smart money never sells at the bottom. They sell to you at the peak. These mega IPOs aren't a sign of market strength. They're the exit doors slamming shut. You've been warned. Remember, I accurately predicted the recent $82K BTC bull trap and nailed the $111K top in October. My next call will be even more important. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE CRASH BEGINS The S&P 500 is tracing the exact same peak pattern as 2007. Back then, Blackstone went public at the absolute top of that cycle. The financial crisis followed months later. Now SpaceX just did the exact same thing. Here's how it works: When a mega-company goes public, it vacuums up massive amounts of capital. Investors dump other assets just to buy the "IPO of the decade." This drains liquidity from the rest of the market and starves the bull run of its fuel. That's what's happening right now. The Magnificent 7 lost $2.3 trillion in a single month. Microsoft: -20% Nvidia: -13% Apple: -8% The playbook never changes. 2000: AOL & Time Warner merged → dot-com bubble peak. 2011: Glencore went public → commodities supercycle top. 2021: Coinbase IPO'd → crypto cycle peak. This always ends the same way. But now it's even worse because Anthropic and OpenAI are waiting in line. Smart money never sells at the bottom. They sell to you at the peak. These mega IPOs aren't a sign of market strength. They're the exit doors slamming shut. You've been warned. Remember, I accurately predicted the recent $82K BTC bull trap and nailed the $111K top in October. My next call will be even more important. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

MARMOT

69,789 views • 3 months ago

Wall Street just pulled off the exact move that turned 2008 from a housing problem into a global collapse. They turned Nvidia graphics cards into bonds, stamped them investment grade, and started selling them into the funds that hold retirement money. Here is what happened while everyone was busy arguing about whether AI stocks were overvalued: The company at the center is CoreWeave, which rents out Nvidia chips to AI companies. To buy those chips, it borrows enormous sums, and the collateral on the loans is the chips themselves. That alone is alarming because a graphics card LOSES most of its value within a few years as the next generation makes it obsolete. You are lending against an asset built to rot. In January, Nvidia invested $2 billion straight into CoreWeave, which then used borrowed money to buy more Nvidia chips. On March 31, CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion loan backed by its chips, and for the first time the rating agencies stamped that chip-backed debt investment grade, with Moody's assigning it an A3. Debt secured by depreciating graphics cards was rated nearly as SAFE as a blue-chip corporate bond. Then on May 18, CoreWeave closed the first chip-backed facility designed to be publicly syndicated and traded on secondary markets. And that's the part that really matters because it means this debt can now be sliced up, passed around, and bought by anyone, including the bond funds and pension managers who are required to hold "safe" investment-grade paper. On June 11, it announced another $3.5 billion in bonds on top of all of it. Now compare this to what happened in the past: Subprime mortgages in 2007 were not dangerous because some people got loans they couldn't repay... They became a global bomb the moment that debt got rated AAA and sold into the wider financial system, because the rating is what let it bleed into money market funds, pensions, and bank balance sheets that were supposed to be boring and safe. The bad loans were the spark but the packaging and rating were the detonator. And that detonator just got built for AI. Debt backed by graphics cards is now rated investment grade and trades on secondary markets, which means the AI bubble is no longer trapped inside tech stocks you can choose not to own. It has been quietly converted into bonds and routed toward the retirement accounts of people who have never typed a single prompt in their lives. And the whole structure rests on a backlog of customer "commitments" that CoreWeave values at nearly $100 BILLION, backed by a $21 billion Meta deal and a $6 billion Jane Street deal. Those are promises to pay over many years, made by AI companies that are themselves mostly unprofitable and burning cash. If even a few of those customers slow down or walk away, the collateral sitting under all this rated debt is a warehouse of chips losing value by the month. The AI bubble used to be a stock-market story you could opt out of. But as of this spring, that isn't the case anymore. So here's the real question: When the people packaging this debt swear to you that it's safe, who do you think is standing on the other side of that trade?

Wall Street just pulled off the exact move that turned 2008 from a housing problem into a global collapse. They turned Nvidia graphics cards into bonds, stamped them investment grade, and started selling them into the funds that hold retirement money. Here is what happened while everyone was busy arguing about whether AI stocks were overvalued: The company at the center is CoreWeave, which rents out Nvidia chips to AI companies. To buy those chips, it borrows enormous sums, and the collateral on the loans is the chips themselves. That alone is alarming because a graphics card LOSES most of its value within a few years as the next generation makes it obsolete. You are lending against an asset built to rot. In January, Nvidia invested $2 billion straight into CoreWeave, which then used borrowed money to buy more Nvidia chips. On March 31, CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion loan backed by its chips, and for the first time the rating agencies stamped that chip-backed debt investment grade, with Moody's assigning it an A3. Debt secured by depreciating graphics cards was rated nearly as SAFE as a blue-chip corporate bond. Then on May 18, CoreWeave closed the first chip-backed facility designed to be publicly syndicated and traded on secondary markets. And that's the part that really matters because it means this debt can now be sliced up, passed around, and bought by anyone, including the bond funds and pension managers who are required to hold "safe" investment-grade paper. On June 11, it announced another $3.5 billion in bonds on top of all of it. Now compare this to what happened in the past: Subprime mortgages in 2007 were not dangerous because some people got loans they couldn't repay... They became a global bomb the moment that debt got rated AAA and sold into the wider financial system, because the rating is what let it bleed into money market funds, pensions, and bank balance sheets that were supposed to be boring and safe. The bad loans were the spark but the packaging and rating were the detonator. And that detonator just got built for AI. Debt backed by graphics cards is now rated investment grade and trades on secondary markets, which means the AI bubble is no longer trapped inside tech stocks you can choose not to own. It has been quietly converted into bonds and routed toward the retirement accounts of people who have never typed a single prompt in their lives. And the whole structure rests on a backlog of customer "commitments" that CoreWeave values at nearly $100 BILLION, backed by a $21 billion Meta deal and a $6 billion Jane Street deal. Those are promises to pay over many years, made by AI companies that are themselves mostly unprofitable and burning cash. If even a few of those customers slow down or walk away, the collateral sitting under all this rated debt is a warehouse of chips losing value by the month. The AI bubble used to be a stock-market story you could opt out of. But as of this spring, that isn't the case anymore. So here's the real question: When the people packaging this debt swear to you that it's safe, who do you think is standing on the other side of that trade?

Ricardo

212,622 views • 4 months ago