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"This is the first time that OpenAI has released a new model that was not decisively the best." @jason and Gavin Baker discuss OpenAI's GPT-5 release: Jason: " Sam did this tweet, it kind of built a lot of expectation that this would be otherworldly. It wasn't." "Are we...

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The All-In Podcast

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🚨 OPENAI'S "SPUD" IS ALREADY IN THE WILD (AND IT RIVALS MYTHOS) Brad Gerstner just went on the All-In Podcast and confirmed that OpenAI's highly anticipated "Spud" model (expected to be GPT-5.5) is already being tested behind closed doors and the early reviews are insane. Addressing the recent wave of skepticism surrounding the company, Gerstner claims we are currently at "peak OpenAI FUD," warning that: "It would be seriously foolish to count out OpenAI... it starts with great researchers and great models. And I think when you see the Spud model they're about ready to release, I think it's going to be an excellent model, shows that they're firmly on the wave." When Jason Calacanis presses him on whether anyone has actually gotten their hands on the new model yet, Gerstner confirms the quiet rollout, stating that: "People are using Spud, right? So it is being previewed." When asked exactly what those early testers are saying about its capabilities, Gerstner drops a massive comparison, revealing that: "They're telling us that it's an incredible model on par with Mythos, right? And that it's a very usable model in terms of how it's packaged."
0:49

🚨 OPENAI'S "SPUD" IS ALREADY IN THE WILD (AND IT RIVALS MYTHOS) Brad Gerstner just went on the All-In Podcast and confirmed that OpenAI's highly anticipated "Spud" model (expected to be GPT-5.5) is already being tested behind closed doors and the early reviews are insane. Addressing the recent wave of skepticism surrounding the company, Gerstner claims we are currently at "peak OpenAI FUD," warning that: "It would be seriously foolish to count out OpenAI... it starts with great researchers and great models. And I think when you see the Spud model they're about ready to release, I think it's going to be an excellent model, shows that they're firmly on the wave." When Jason Calacanis presses him on whether anyone has actually gotten their hands on the new model yet, Gerstner confirms the quiet rollout, stating that: "People are using Spud, right? So it is being previewed." When asked exactly what those early testers are saying about its capabilities, Gerstner drops a massive comparison, revealing that: "They're telling us that it's an incredible model on par with Mythos, right? And that it's a very usable model in terms of how it's packaged."

Chris

138,250 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

GPT-5 Pro is genuinely a top tier model, it is the best. I know some GPT-5 reactions have been mixed (including from me), but OpenAI has made great strides with Pro. I have made 12 simulations that no other model would match, not from OpenAI, Google, xAI or Anthropic. All of them were 1-3 shots (mostly to fix small issues) and the output is really outstanding. OpenAI Developers
1:35

GPT-5 Pro is genuinely a top tier model, it is the best. I know some GPT-5 reactions have been mixed (including from me), but OpenAI has made great strides with Pro. I have made 12 simulations that no other model would match, not from OpenAI, Google, xAI or Anthropic. All of them were 1-3 shots (mostly to fix small issues) and the output is really outstanding. OpenAI Developers

Peter Gostev

58,631 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Sam Altman on the Paul Graham advice that saved Open AI: “Always make an API” Four years into OpenAI, Sam Altman and the team realized that they would have to build a really big company to fund the development of their increasingly capital-intensive foundation models. “We had this model called GPT-3,” Sam recalls. “I was turning up the urgency on the company to try and figure out a product, and we just couldn’t. It was cool, but it wasn’t good enough to make something that worked.” Then Sam remembered a piece of advice from Y Combinator founder Paul Graham that stuck with him: “You should always make an API. No matter what, you should make an API. Good stuff will happen.” Out of ideas for a product, the OpenAI team decided to make GPT-3 available as an API. “Maybe somebody will figure out something to do with it,” Sam thought. A few copywriting applications like Jasper and Copy AI did take off using the GPT-3 API, but OpenAI also noticed interesting behavior that eventually became a sleeper hit: “Some people — not a lot — would just chat with that thing all day,” Sam explains. “It wasn’t very good but there was clear user signal that people wanted to talk to the models. And given that that was the only thing besides copywriting that had real traction, we said, ‘Maybe this is just he product we should build.’” On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was released to the public as a “research preview” using a model from the GPT-3.5 series. It reached over a million users in five days. Video source: Khosla Ventures (2025)
1:55

Sam Altman on the Paul Graham advice that saved Open AI: “Always make an API” Four years into OpenAI, Sam Altman and the team realized that they would have to build a really big company to fund the development of their increasingly capital-intensive foundation models. “We had this model called GPT-3,” Sam recalls. “I was turning up the urgency on the company to try and figure out a product, and we just couldn’t. It was cool, but it wasn’t good enough to make something that worked.” Then Sam remembered a piece of advice from Y Combinator founder Paul Graham that stuck with him: “You should always make an API. No matter what, you should make an API. Good stuff will happen.” Out of ideas for a product, the OpenAI team decided to make GPT-3 available as an API. “Maybe somebody will figure out something to do with it,” Sam thought. A few copywriting applications like Jasper and Copy AI did take off using the GPT-3 API, but OpenAI also noticed interesting behavior that eventually became a sleeper hit: “Some people — not a lot — would just chat with that thing all day,” Sam explains. “It wasn’t very good but there was clear user signal that people wanted to talk to the models. And given that that was the only thing besides copywriting that had real traction, we said, ‘Maybe this is just he product we should build.’” On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was released to the public as a “research preview” using a model from the GPT-3.5 series. It reached over a million users in five days. Video source: Khosla Ventures (2025)

Startup Archive

219,324 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

You knew it was just a matter of time until we did this (extend the Mint Mobile savings with OpenAI, that is).
1:01

You knew it was just a matter of time until we did this (extend the Mint Mobile savings with OpenAI, that is).

Ryan Reynolds

2,135,481 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

"This whole story and narrative that Google has already won is going to be harder to tell when the best model is actually an OpenAI model," D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says. He also says that OpenAI will launch that "state-of-the-art" model "over the next few days, weeks."
2:38

"This whole story and narrative that Google has already won is going to be harder to tell when the best model is actually an OpenAI model," D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says. He also says that OpenAI will launch that "state-of-the-art" model "over the next few days, weeks."

Yahoo Finance

12,410 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

According to Sam Altman, OpenAI "will release an amazing new model this year." "We'll release, over the coming months, many different things." He did not, however, say when to expect GPT-5 ("if it will even be called that").
0:44

According to Sam Altman, OpenAI "will release an amazing new model this year." "We'll release, over the coming months, many different things." He did not, however, say when to expect GPT-5 ("if it will even be called that").

The Technology Brother

13,675 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Sam Altman: “If your product has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape” Sam reflects on the first group of users that tested ChatGPT: “This was back when the model was really bad. Very few of the users actually stuck with it. Retention was atrocious. But for the users that did retain, their usage increased over time.” He admits that OpenAI almost didn’t even launch ChatGPT because of how atrocious early retention was. But after reflection, he believes this is a really important learning for startup founders: “If you have a product that has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape. If it’s 5%, that can be totally fine. The default is almost all the way down in a straight line to zero. But I didn’t quite understand that as intuitively at the time.” Source: Khosla Ventures (Sep 2025)
0:37

Sam Altman: “If your product has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape” Sam reflects on the first group of users that tested ChatGPT: “This was back when the model was really bad. Very few of the users actually stuck with it. Retention was atrocious. But for the users that did retain, their usage increased over time.” He admits that OpenAI almost didn’t even launch ChatGPT because of how atrocious early retention was. But after reflection, he believes this is a really important learning for startup founders: “If you have a product that has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape. If it’s 5%, that can be totally fine. The default is almost all the way down in a straight line to zero. But I didn’t quite understand that as intuitively at the time.” Source: Khosla Ventures (Sep 2025)

Startup Archive

46,603 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Sam Altman: “If your product has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape” Sam reflects on the first group of users that tested ChatGPT: “This was back when the model was really bad. Very few of the users actually stuck with it. Retention was atrocious. But for the users that did retain, their usage increased over time.” He admits that OpenAI almost didn’t even launch ChatGPT because of how atrocious early retention was. But after reflection, he believes this is a really important learning for startup founders: “If you have a product that has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape. If it’s 5%, that can be totally fine. The default is almost all the way down in a straight line to zero. But I didn’t quite understand that as intuitively at the time.” Video source: Khosla Ventures (2025)
0:37

Sam Altman: “If your product has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape” Sam reflects on the first group of users that tested ChatGPT: “This was back when the model was really bad. Very few of the users actually stuck with it. Retention was atrocious. But for the users that did retain, their usage increased over time.” He admits that OpenAI almost didn’t even launch ChatGPT because of how atrocious early retention was. But after reflection, he believes this is a really important learning for startup founders: “If you have a product that has any retention at all, you’re actually in really good shape. If it’s 5%, that can be totally fine. The default is almost all the way down in a straight line to zero. But I didn’t quite understand that as intuitively at the time.” Video source: Khosla Ventures (2025)

Startup Archive

107,853 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Jensen Huang was asked whether AI's future is open source or proprietary the question the whole industry keeps fighting over. He didn't pick a side. He said something that quietly ends the fight. "models is a technology, not a product. Model is a technology, not a service" "For the vast majority of consumers, the horizontal layer, the general intelligence, I would really, really love not to go fine-tune my own" "all these industries, their domain expertise, their specialization has to be channeled, has to be captured in a way that they can control, and that it can only come from open models" "the open model industry we're contributing tremendously to it is near the frontier" Everyone else is arguing about which lab wins OpenAI or Anthropic, who has the smartest frontier model this quarter. Jensen is standing on stage saying that's the sideshow. The proprietary model is the convenience layer you rent when you don't care. The open model is the thing you own when the work is yours. Two different products for two different needs not two horses in one race. open models are the second-biggest in the room. Ahead of Anthropic. Behind only OpenAI.
2:51

Jensen Huang was asked whether AI's future is open source or proprietary the question the whole industry keeps fighting over. He didn't pick a side. He said something that quietly ends the fight. "models is a technology, not a product. Model is a technology, not a service" "For the vast majority of consumers, the horizontal layer, the general intelligence, I would really, really love not to go fine-tune my own" "all these industries, their domain expertise, their specialization has to be channeled, has to be captured in a way that they can control, and that it can only come from open models" "the open model industry we're contributing tremendously to it is near the frontier" Everyone else is arguing about which lab wins OpenAI or Anthropic, who has the smartest frontier model this quarter. Jensen is standing on stage saying that's the sideshow. The proprietary model is the convenience layer you rent when you don't care. The open model is the thing you own when the work is yours. Two different products for two different needs not two horses in one race. open models are the second-biggest in the room. Ahead of Anthropic. Behind only OpenAI.

Vikram M

12,078 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

We are not the center of the universe and should stop behaving like that! "I grew up implicitly thinking that intelligence was this really special human thing and somewhat magical. And I now think that it is sort of the fundamental property of matter.” Sam Altman #OpenAI #OpenAIatIIITDelhi
1:11

We are not the center of the universe and should stop behaving like that! "I grew up implicitly thinking that intelligence was this really special human thing and somewhat magical. And I now think that it is sort of the fundamental property of matter.” Sam Altman #OpenAI #OpenAIatIIITDelhi

Parves Shahid

41,452 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

Jason Calacanis: The outcome of NYT v. OpenAI could change everything for content creators On E215, @jason discussed the downstream impacts from a huge recent legal decision in the AI space: "Thomson Reuters just won the first major US AI copyright case." "This has huge implications for AI companies here in the United States." "I think that there is a non-zero chance, it might be 5 or 10%, that OpenAI is going to lose the The New York Times lawsuit, and they're going to lose it hard." "I think The New York Times realizes this is their payday." " The settlement might be that these language models, especially the closed ones, are going to have to pay some percentage of their revenue to the content holders." " And this could make the content industry have a massive resurgence." " I think the New York Times will make more money from licenses from LLMs than they will make from advertising or subscriptions, eventually." " This will renew the model."
0:42

Jason Calacanis: The outcome of NYT v. OpenAI could change everything for content creators On E215, @jason discussed the downstream impacts from a huge recent legal decision in the AI space: "Thomson Reuters just won the first major US AI copyright case." "This has huge implications for AI companies here in the United States." "I think that there is a non-zero chance, it might be 5 or 10%, that OpenAI is going to lose the The New York Times lawsuit, and they're going to lose it hard." "I think The New York Times realizes this is their payday." " The settlement might be that these language models, especially the closed ones, are going to have to pay some percentage of their revenue to the content holders." " And this could make the content industry have a massive resurgence." " I think the New York Times will make more money from licenses from LLMs than they will make from advertising or subscriptions, eventually." " This will renew the model."

The All-In Podcast

69,778 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is heating up. Jordi Visser says "Sam Altman in my guess is not going to be the leader of OpenAI at some point soon." "I would be shocked within a year if he is still running OpenAI." "I am not sure it is fun to be in that position right now...Sam Altman seems to have nobody who really likes him, but the product people do like." "In the end, OpenAI has an uphill battle because they made a bad decision. They tried to choose the consumer, Apple side as opposed to the enterprise side." "I just think in the end Anthropic is the winner of that battle."
1:17

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is heating up. Jordi Visser says "Sam Altman in my guess is not going to be the leader of OpenAI at some point soon." "I would be shocked within a year if he is still running OpenAI." "I am not sure it is fun to be in that position right now...Sam Altman seems to have nobody who really likes him, but the product people do like." "In the end, OpenAI has an uphill battle because they made a bad decision. They tried to choose the consumer, Apple side as opposed to the enterprise side." "I just think in the end Anthropic is the winner of that battle."

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

106,184 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

President William Ruto: The new student-centred funding model has 5 bands. The banding did not start with this model. We started the banding in 1996. There has always been banding. I know there is a push that maybe this banding started with this model, it did not, it has always been there. All we did, instead of having 4 bands we made it 5
0:50

President William Ruto: The new student-centred funding model has 5 bands. The banding did not start with this model. We started the banding in 1996. There has always been banding. I know there is a push that maybe this banding started with this model, it did not, it has always been there. All we did, instead of having 4 bands we made it 5

Citizen TV Kenya

58,084 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

"That was really the linchpin of OpenAI being successful" -Elon Musk on Ilya Sutskever's role in OpenAI. There was a recruiting battle between Elon (OpenAI) and Demis (Google DeepMind). "The Open in OpenAI is supposed to mean open source. It was created as a nonprofit open source, and now it is a closed source for maximum profit, which I think is not good karma."
1:59

"That was really the linchpin of OpenAI being successful" -Elon Musk on Ilya Sutskever's role in OpenAI. There was a recruiting battle between Elon (OpenAI) and Demis (Google DeepMind). "The Open in OpenAI is supposed to mean open source. It was created as a nonprofit open source, and now it is a closed source for maximum profit, which I think is not good karma."

Alex Ker 🔭

589,166 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

OpenAI and Anthropic haven't won the enterprise AI market yet. “When you get a CIO one-on-one, they’re not happy with what Anthropic is trying to do. They're not happy with what OpenAI is bringing to the enterprise.” "I think ultimately, OpenAI is a consumer AI company. Anthropic is a coding model company, and the enterprise is actually really, really wide open and incredibly diverse in terms of the winners" — May Habib, CEO of WRITER
0:59

OpenAI and Anthropic haven't won the enterprise AI market yet. “When you get a CIO one-on-one, they’re not happy with what Anthropic is trying to do. They're not happy with what OpenAI is bringing to the enterprise.” "I think ultimately, OpenAI is a consumer AI company. Anthropic is a coding model company, and the enterprise is actually really, really wide open and incredibly diverse in terms of the winners" — May Habib, CEO of WRITER

The Information

39,146 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Sam Altman on GPT 5: "This morning I was testing our new model and I got a question. I got emailed a question that I didn't quite understand. And I put it in the model, this is GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly. And I really kind of sat back in my chair and I was just like, oh man, here it is moment... I felt like useless relative to the AI in this thing that I felt like I should have been able to do and I couldn't. It was really hard. But the AI just did it like that. It was a weird feeling."
0:46

Sam Altman on GPT 5: "This morning I was testing our new model and I got a question. I got emailed a question that I didn't quite understand. And I put it in the model, this is GPT-5, and it answered it perfectly. And I really kind of sat back in my chair and I was just like, oh man, here it is moment... I felt like useless relative to the AI in this thing that I felt like I should have been able to do and I couldn't. It was really hard. But the AI just did it like that. It was a weird feeling."

Chris

5,664,840 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains "The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized." "Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing." "These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire." "They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone." "It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
1:54

Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains "The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized." "Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing." "These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire." "They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone." "It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."

dnap

523,186 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 U.S. government orders OpenAI to limit the rollout of GPT-5.6 while it conducts a national security review, according to The Information. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says this is “not our preferred long-term model.”
0:52

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 U.S. government orders OpenAI to limit the rollout of GPT-5.6 while it conducts a national security review, according to The Information. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says this is “not our preferred long-term model.”

CryptoTweets

113,997 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: Bg2 Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”
2:19

How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: Bg2 Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”

tae kim

1,566,351 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Sam Altman just handed every startup founder a one-question autopsy. Altman: “If you’re building something on GPT-4 that a reasonable observer would say we’re going to steamroll you.” Not might. Not could. Going to. He said it with the calm of someone describing weather. Because to him it is weather. The model improves. Whatever was built on the old version’s weaknesses gets washed away. That is not strategy. That is erosion. And most founders are building on the erosion line. They find a gap in the current model. They wrap a product around it. They raise money. They hire. They scale. Then OpenAI releases the next version and the gap closes and the product has no reason to exist anymore. Altman: “When we just do our fundamental job, which is make the model better with every crank, then you get the ‘OpenAI killed my startup’ meme.” He is telling you directly. They are not hunting you. They are not even thinking about you. They are just improving the model. You happen to be standing where the improvement lands. That is the part founders refuse to hear. OpenAI does not need to compete with you. It just needs to keep doing exactly what it was already doing and your entire company disappears as a side effect. You are not a competitor. You are a temporary symptom of incomplete intelligence. The moment the intelligence completes you become nothing. Then Brad Lightcap delivered the cleanest diagnostic ever spoken in venture capital. Lightcap: “Ask if a 100x improvement in the model is something they’re excited about.” One question. The entire investment thesis reduced to a single binary. Does the next model make your company more powerful or does it make your company pointless. There is no middle ground. Lightcap: “We know the companies that come to us saying, ‘We want the next model. When is it coming out? I want to be the first to try it.’” These companies built something that feeds on intelligence. The smarter the model gets the more their product can do. They are not threatened by progress. They are starving for it. Then there are the companies Lightcap never hears from. The ones who go quiet when a new model drops. The ones who read the release notes like a death sentence. The ones privately praying the next generation takes longer because every improvement shrinks the ground beneath them. If you are hoping the model stays roughly where it is you have already told the market everything it needs to know about your company. You are not building on intelligence. You are building on the absence of it. Altman: “95% of the world should be betting on the latter category.” The latter category is simple. Assume the model keeps getting better at the pace it has been getting better. Build for that world. Not the world where GPT-4 is the ceiling. The world where GPT-4 is the floor and the ceiling has not been built yet. Then Altman told a story that should be framed on the wall of every startup in the country. A medical AI company came to him that morning. They were not complaining about the model. They were not worried about being replaced. They were demanding it improve faster. Altman: “Here’s how many people are dying every day you delay.” That is what alignment with the trajectory looks like. A company so deeply built on intelligence improving that every day the model stays the same is a day someone dies who did not have to. They are not building on a flaw. They are building on a future that has not arrived fast enough. That is the difference. The wrapper startup patches what the model cannot do today. The real company builds what the model will unlock tomorrow. One is running from the train. The other is laying the track. Altman told you the train is not slowing down. Lightcap told you exactly how to know which side you are on. One question. Does a 100x smarter model make you more valuable or erase you. If you had to pause before answering you already did.
2:28

Sam Altman just handed every startup founder a one-question autopsy. Altman: “If you’re building something on GPT-4 that a reasonable observer would say we’re going to steamroll you.” Not might. Not could. Going to. He said it with the calm of someone describing weather. Because to him it is weather. The model improves. Whatever was built on the old version’s weaknesses gets washed away. That is not strategy. That is erosion. And most founders are building on the erosion line. They find a gap in the current model. They wrap a product around it. They raise money. They hire. They scale. Then OpenAI releases the next version and the gap closes and the product has no reason to exist anymore. Altman: “When we just do our fundamental job, which is make the model better with every crank, then you get the ‘OpenAI killed my startup’ meme.” He is telling you directly. They are not hunting you. They are not even thinking about you. They are just improving the model. You happen to be standing where the improvement lands. That is the part founders refuse to hear. OpenAI does not need to compete with you. It just needs to keep doing exactly what it was already doing and your entire company disappears as a side effect. You are not a competitor. You are a temporary symptom of incomplete intelligence. The moment the intelligence completes you become nothing. Then Brad Lightcap delivered the cleanest diagnostic ever spoken in venture capital. Lightcap: “Ask if a 100x improvement in the model is something they’re excited about.” One question. The entire investment thesis reduced to a single binary. Does the next model make your company more powerful or does it make your company pointless. There is no middle ground. Lightcap: “We know the companies that come to us saying, ‘We want the next model. When is it coming out? I want to be the first to try it.’” These companies built something that feeds on intelligence. The smarter the model gets the more their product can do. They are not threatened by progress. They are starving for it. Then there are the companies Lightcap never hears from. The ones who go quiet when a new model drops. The ones who read the release notes like a death sentence. The ones privately praying the next generation takes longer because every improvement shrinks the ground beneath them. If you are hoping the model stays roughly where it is you have already told the market everything it needs to know about your company. You are not building on intelligence. You are building on the absence of it. Altman: “95% of the world should be betting on the latter category.” The latter category is simple. Assume the model keeps getting better at the pace it has been getting better. Build for that world. Not the world where GPT-4 is the ceiling. The world where GPT-4 is the floor and the ceiling has not been built yet. Then Altman told a story that should be framed on the wall of every startup in the country. A medical AI company came to him that morning. They were not complaining about the model. They were not worried about being replaced. They were demanding it improve faster. Altman: “Here’s how many people are dying every day you delay.” That is what alignment with the trajectory looks like. A company so deeply built on intelligence improving that every day the model stays the same is a day someone dies who did not have to. They are not building on a flaw. They are building on a future that has not arrived fast enough. That is the difference. The wrapper startup patches what the model cannot do today. The real company builds what the model will unlock tomorrow. One is running from the train. The other is laying the track. Altman told you the train is not slowing down. Lightcap told you exactly how to know which side you are on. One question. Does a 100x smarter model make you more valuable or erase you. If you had to pause before answering you already did.

Dustin

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