The All-In Podcast
@theallinpod • 591,225 subscribers
@chamath, @jason, @davidsacks, and @friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social, and poker.
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David Friedberg: Higher Interest Rates Are About to Make America’s $40 Trillion Debt Problem Much Worse “The federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt. That debt is coming due. Those bonds are now due. They have to pay the principal back to the bond holders, and they have to go back to the treasury market and sell more treasuries to borrow more money to refinance. So the borrowing cost now is going to climb up, and when that borrowing cost climbs up, the federal government's burn goes up and the fiscal deficit goes up. So my theory and my argument on this is: There is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have a fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. It is very expensive now to borrow money if you're the US federal government. And the reason is persistent inflation, I would argue because of excess government spending on social programs and other things. And the big problem at this point is the federal government is spending so much that if they were to cut spending aggressively, the argument and the concern is it would hit unemployment and it would cause a recession because the federal government is such an intricate part of the economy now. That's the argument. But it's causing inflation, and it's causing deficit spending. So this year the deficit will be roughly $2 trillion. And as a result, the market is saying, ‘We're worried about the US fiscal solvency over the long run, or there's a higher risk. As a result, we're going to charge you a higher interest, 5.2% on the 30 year.’ What does this mean for the federal government? Well, today, the federal government's average cost of debt is 3.4%. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the $40 trillion of debt that the federal government has outstanding. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year. 1.25% of GDP in interest each year for that 1% change in the interest rate.”
The All-In Podcast320,810 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce
THE BESTIES ARE BACK! 🚨 -- China's Robot Olympics and the Optimus Future $TSLA -- $NVDA and $CRM Rip on Big Earnings: Narrative Violations -- Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Yield Curve Suppression, Debt Spiral, How to Fix? -- Druck's AI WSJ Op-Ed Controversy -- CIA Chief Visits Moscow -- Science Corner: $MRNA Cancer Vaccine (0:00) Bestie intros: Recapping recent interviews and the state of American science (3:31) China's Robot Olympics, Optimus update, Grok Bot (9:05) Nvidia and Salesforce rip after big earnings: AI Capex Bubble and SaaSpocalypse narratives get reversed (33:32) Bessent gets called out by Druckenmiller for bond market interference (1:01:33) AI writing controversy: Druck used AI to write his WSJ Op-ed (1:15:00) CIA Chief visits Moscow, Meta's settlement and new teen rules (1:22:52) Science Corner: Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine
The All-In Podcast396,151 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
Gavin Baker: Anthropic Believes They Could Be the ONLY Company Left in the World “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.” Gavin Baker: “Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point. Think about that. In this vision, an Anthropic maximalist vision, there's Anthropic, and then there are governments, and that's it. So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really, really well. I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a long time before they land a rocket.” @jason: “Or they deliver your lunch. I don't know. There might be other businesses in the world. Zipline might want to bring you a burrito. Uber might want to take you somewhere. Waymo might want to drive you home. But sure, Dario.” David Sacks: “I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic. This is getting into SBF land a little bit.” Gavin: “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”
The All-In Podcast1,773,205 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce
David Sacks: Nonprofits need to manufacture problems in America to stay in business David Sacks: “Here's the systemic problem with nonprofits and NGOs. Let me just contrast it with business. In business, you set up a company, the company has to make revenue, it has to make profits. And if it doesn't, it's going to go out of business, right? Because it'll lose money. So there's a feedback mechanism from the market. With an NGO, nonprofit, what have you, they raise money. They don't sell things. They fundraise from donors in order to engage in an activity, but what happens over time is the actual activities may stop mattering, and all that really matters is they're able to keep fundraising, right? Because they're just trying to figure out a justification to keep going back to donors to get more and more money out of them. That's what perpetuates the organization.” Chamath: “ Why wouldn't the Southern Poverty Law Center focus on southern poverty? Which is an issue that actually still exists in some shape or form. Why do you call it one thing, focus on racism, and then all of a sudden whip up fake racism?” Sacks: “I do think that at one time in this country, civil rights was a noble cause, a very legitimate cause. We had the legacy of segregation and Jim Crow, and there were groups that were set up to basically change that, and they succeeded. But again, no one in an NGO or a nonprofit ever declares victory. When Obama got elected in 2008, regardless of whether you liked Obama or not, or agreed with his politics, I thought that at that point, most people could see that this was not a racist country. Whatever else you could say, the fact that the highest office in the land was not denied to anybody showed that this country was not holding people back based on their skin color. And instead of just basically packing up shop and saying, ‘Okay, we've achieved our goal,’ the goalposts all got moved. Remember, that's when the whole anti-racism thing started, was around Obama's second term. If they just said at that time, ‘You know what, we're going to move the goalposts from equality of opportunity to equality of results. We're going to basically make everyone equal at the finish line,’ which is to say, identity socialism. People would've said, ‘Eh, no, we're not on board for that.’ So instead, they created this whole new terminology to justify it. And it's taken us years to unpack that and realize what's really going on.”
The All-In Podcast11,704,339 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
Friedberg: New study shows enzyme reverses skin age from 70+ years to 31 Chamath: That’s a $2T market. Did Scientists Just Discover How to Reverse Skin Aging!? “CML is kind of the predominant molecule that gets formed in this extracellular matrix that's driving aging, and nothing breaks it down. So these scientists set out to try and create an enzyme, an enzyme is a protein that breaks something down, that can break down CML. And so these guys kind of went out and they took the target, which is CML, and tried to figure out, ‘Okay, how do we actually degrade CML, clear that extracellular matrix, and reverse aging?’ They started to test it on the proteins that we would find in our body, casein, collagen, retinal proteins, which are in your eye, hemoglobin, and they were able to get rid of 52 to 97% of the CML, just degrade it away. And then they found several sites where they were able to degrade over 90%. And then they took actual human skin from elderly patients that had donated their skin, and they put this enzyme onto that skin, and they were able to eliminate 55% of the CML on the skin, basically reverse the skin's age down to the age of a 31-year-old, this is from greater than 70-year-old patients, just by putting this enzyme on the skin. And so it's kind of a groundbreaking demonstration of combination of AlphaFold, what's called directed evolution, where you change the order of the DNA that changes the structure of the protein to test different proteins, do high throughput screening, and ultimately make a novel protein that doesn't exist in nature today that can do something pretty profound for human health.” Chamath: “It will be a trillion-dollar market. If you can create a cream…” Friedberg: “I mean, dude, if you could put this enzyme literally on your skin and have it absorb in…” Chamath: “Game over. That alone is $2 trillion.”
The All-In Podcast2,978,874 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 ALL-IN INTERVIEW: Friedberg sits down with Eric Weinstein Thanks to our partners: Creative Planning The Conservation Fund - The State of Science in America - Breakthrough Coverups? - The Danger (and Unlimited Possibility) of Physics - Aliens, China, and Much More (0:00) Eric Weinstein joins the show! (3:09) Has American science stalled? Cowboy science, Fauci, and the scientific precariat (21:31) Weinstein's fix: Blow a hole in the Civil Rights Act, kill peer review, fund people not ideas (41:36) Ed Witten drove physics off a cliff, and is Renaissance Technologies a secret Los Alamos? (52:49) Boom, Vroom, Zoom: Did stagnant physics save the human species? (1:07:11) UAPs, multi-temporal adversaries, and Einstein's prison (1:16:12) China poaches our best scientists, AI reads the trash can corpus ----------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners for making this possible! As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. With over nine million acres protected across all fifty states, The Conservation Fund secures the irreplaceable lands we love. Learn more at
The All-In Podcast278,198 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce
first video from the All-In Summit 2025 - in conversation with Elon Musk available exclusively on X (0:00) Besties welcome Elon via Starlink (05:31) Ukraine and Starlink (19:10) green shoots of X (22:24) the creator economy and optimizing the X experience (26:43) the ADL, free speech, and advocating for peace (32:41) China (37:20) AI (44:30) where are we with self-driving? and MUCH more
The All-In Podcast80,975,354 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce
David Sacks Predicts the Regulatory Capture Playbook to Ban Open Source AI, Step by Step: David Sacks: “I got bad news for you, Chamath, an open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed ones. Here's how they do it step by step, let me explain how regulatory capture actually works. So first of all, you have to get this regulatory apparatus. Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that, so instead they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI. They call it self-regulating, it's not really, but anyway, that gets them off the ground. Now they've created the standard-setting organization. Now they've got pre-release model testing. Then the pressure grows to codify that in law, so that happens next. And then what they do is they say, ‘Look, all these standards need to apply equally to all models.’ But here's the problem with that. Open models and closed models are technologically different. Once you release an open model into the world, you can't roll it back and you can't monitor exactly how people are using it because they run it on their own hardware. Dario says this is what makes open models dangerous. So what they're going to do is they're going to have the standard-setting body say, ‘Well, we have to set the standards for AI safety.’ By the way, Dario and OpenAI, they're going to fund the whole thing. They're going to contribute all the compute. They're going to be behind it. They're going to be the ones coordinating with the government officials because frankly, people in government have no idea how to monitor and control and set standards for AI safety. Technologically, this is way beyond them. So they're going to go to these companies and say, ‘Tell us how to do it.’ And so what will happen is the standards will get set, and then it'll be a very simple matter of fairness to say that the standards need to apply to open as well as closed models. The open models cannot comply in the same way, and gradually they will be shut out of the market.”
The All-In Podcast290,118 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce
Jason Calacanis: “Optimus will be the best-selling product of all time.” @jason: “I saw the latest Optimus. It would win half of (the Robot Olympics competitions) already. When you guys see it, it's... he's making sick progress. He's not showing it publicly, but I saw it.” I saw a video and I said to (Elon), ‘Is this CGI or is this real?’ And he said, ‘No, this is real. They just sent it to me this morning.’ And it's like, ‘Woah.’ Optimus will be the best-selling product of all time.” $TSLA Elon Musk
The All-In Podcast113,162 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce
Chamath: “If you see the 30 year at 6%, it is the beginning of a death spiral.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “We are supposed to be in the middle of an enormous financial build-out to support AI. And if you go all the way back, like 100 years, the Industrial Revolution, the Grand Bargain, all of this stuff, the United States government was the balance sheet. They are the ones that were able to step in. And unfortunately, because of its financial situation, the US government is not able to do that. That's why, thank God, we have companies like Nvidia, and Google, and Microsoft, and Meta, and Amazon who take on that burden. There's so much chirping, by the way, on the internet about the balance sheet of Nvidia and blah, blah, blah, and I think people completely miss that these guys are putting the entire US economy on their back.”
The All-In Podcast121,618 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce
Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done “It is a crucible moment for American society.” “If nothing happens and we deem this kind of theft acceptable, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire.” “It's just a level of disrespect and lack of care for this country.” “I will be waiting and observing how important it is to root this out, that's number one.” “The second, which is more tactical political calculus, this is an enormous opportunity for the Republican Party if they take this and run with this.” “Is there waste, fraud and abuse in every state? Absolutely. I don't think this is endemically a Democratic problem, but the scale of it is so gargantuan in these Democratic states that if the Republicans don't take advantage of it, I think it is a huge political miscalculation.” “So there is this tactical opportunity, which I think if you want to have a chance in the midterms and if you generally wanna have a chance to level-set the country, you must take this and run with it.” “And then separately, if as Friedberg says, it does die on the vine, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire, unfortunately.”
The All-In Podcast10,556,480 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce
The Media is Not Doing its Job Chamath Palihapitiya breaks down the viral "sharp as a tack" clip: "Six minutes of 100 spokespeople and proxies, and they all had the same thing to say about President Biden, which is, 'He is sharp as a tack.'" "If I asked 100 people on the street, 'What do you think of Elon Musk?' You'd have 100 different statements. There be a general theme, but you would not have even 50 people repeat the exact same words." "You have this funny situation where 100 different people were basically saying the exact same talking point. So it's not even a point of view. It was just something that they were told to say by somebody else." "And that is the real issue: you don't really have an honest media here. So there is no check and balance on power right now."
The All-In Podcast36,372,027 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
David Friedberg: Government Spending is Making Everything More Expensive… and Driving America Toward Socialism david friedberg: “California's got tens of billions of dollars it spent on this stupid f**king railway that goes nowhere, where there's no f**king tracks…” David Sacks: “And there's no political will to even stop that. It'd be the easiest cut in the world.” Friedberg: “Just think about the idiocy. Like, no one is saying we shouldn't do this. Why is no one saying we shouldn't do this? A quarter trillion dollars for a train from San Francisco to Fresno that costs more than an airline ticket is so idiotic. It's like the movie ‘Don't Look Up’. Like, look up. It tells you everything you need to know. Across the board, these government programs cause more harm than good. When the government intervenes in underwriting student loans, and gives everyone a loan, administrative costs went up by 6x and tuition skyrocketed 8% a year, compounding for 30 years, because the government said, ‘We'll underwrite any student loan.’ The same with housing, and now no young people can afford a house. The same with healthcare, where they said, ‘We'll pay people to stay home and not work to take care of people, and we won't check on whether or not they're actually taking care of people,’ and the cost of healthcare skyrocketed. You go across every one of these government programs, and every one of them has the adverse effect of driving up costs and inflating everything. And the core root of inflation in this country is government spending. And the reason we are going to end up becoming a socialist country is because we aren't reining in government spending and looking it in the mirror and saying, ‘Guys, this is idiotic. What are we doing?’”
The All-In Podcast95,384 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce
🚨 The All-In Summit 2026 Speaker Announcement: Jensen Huang (Jensen Huang), CEO of NVIDIA Satya Nadella (Satya Nadella), CEO of Microsoft Jared Isaacman (Jared Isaacman), NASA Administrator Gwynne Shotwell (Gwynne Shotwell), President and COO of SpaceX Martin Shkreli (Martin Shkreli), Investor Nick Shirley (Nick shirley), Independent Journalist Jake Paul (Jake Paul), Investor and Entrepreneur Plus, appearances from your favorite Besties Guesties, Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) and Bill Gurley (Bill Gurley)! More speaker announcements coming soon. Be there when it happens this September 13-15: #AllInSummit
The All-In Podcast611,178 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce
🚨 POD UP! The Core Four are back! -- Dario Amodei Breaks His Silence: Regulatory Capture or Real Concern? -- The Anti-Data Center Revolt: Abbott, Shapiro, and the GOP Panic Memo -- A "DMV for AI"? Sacks Says the Open Source Ban Is Coming -- Friedberg's RSI Thesis: Why Regulating AI May Be a Fool's Errand -- a16z Under DOJ Investigation Over a 1914 Law -- Midterms Toss-Up: 53% of Young Conservatives Want Government Grocery Stores (00:00) Besties are back! (00:13) Dario's two-part essay: regulatory capture, doomerism, and the data center backlash (10:25) FINRA for AI vs. MPAA for AI: SROs, thinking tokens, and the "DMV for AI" (30:12) Is an open source ban coming? Harnesses, FDI, jobs, and recursive self-improvement (56:33) a16z under DOJ investigation over "interlocking directorates" (1:01:15) Midterms: broken polls, the socialism surge, and CATO's DSA price tag Come hang with the Besties at the All-In Summit | September 13-15: #AllInSummit
The All-In Podcast258,151 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce
David Sacks: “ The Democrats want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.” 🚨 “And you can see this in the 2030 apportionment forecast, which just came out.” “Illegal aliens count towards the census, which occurs every decade, and the census determines the apportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes.” “And what you see in these maps is that citizens of blue states have been migrating to red states because those blue states are failing.” “As a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine house seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers.” “Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers, and so for example, in the last election, President Trump would've won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.”
The All-In Podcast5,795,767 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
E184: in conversation with Donald J. Trump, live on X (0:00) bestie intros: big house talk! (1:37) economy: regulation, taxes, tariffs, taming inflation, de-dollarization (12:02) federal debt: growth, spend control, where to cut, role of energy, nuclear (20:22) foreign policy: ukraine/russia (25:05) foreign policy: israel/palestine (28:13) abortion: stance on a national ban (31:09) foreign policy: china (32:33) covid: origins, fauci relationship, deep state, bad deals (39:39) border: wall, immigration, h-1bs, recruiting global talent (46:07) jfk files: full release, importance of transparency (48:06) debate prediction (50:15) post-interview debrief
The All-In Podcast25,638,485 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
full two-hour conversation with GOP candidate Chris Christie... live on X! the former nj governor joins the besties and goes deep on: (2:14) national debt crisis (14:04) foreign policy (25:28) ukraine/russia (36:47) defense spend, zero-based budgeting (50:01) immigration (1:02:24) fentanyl crisis, criminal justice reform (1:17:41) prosecuting trump (1:23:16) past controversies and MUCH more
The All-In Podcast29,233,180 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce
E143 - now in full on X! (0:00) Bestie intros: Friedberg's interview with NASA Astronaut Woody Hoburg, live from the ISS! (2:58) All-In Tequila update (10:04) Nvidia smashes earnings, GPU market outlook (37:39) Arm files for IPO: positive sign or plank walk? Plus: State of the IPO market (49:51) Sacks on current investable metrics right now in VC (55:33) GOP Debate breakdown: Vivek's statement, DeSantis's strategy, Haley & Christie solidify positions (1:39:46) Vivek's comments on the Climate Agenda (1:47:07) Prigozhin crash
The All-In Podcast29,445,949 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce