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The All-In Podcast

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@chamath, @jason, @davidsacks, and @friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social, and poker.

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the countdown begins! only 1 week until the most spectacular party of the year! come celebrate the holidays with the besties in san francisco. secure your tickets: *scholarship tickets also available. apply: #allinholidayspectacular #holidayparty

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Bill Gurley: Anthropic Thinks It’s Building God @jason: It is the ultimate level of narcissism and delusion of grandeur to think you can create God. Bill Gurley: “Anthropic is a mystery to me. I've never, ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do. And my initial theory was the regulatory capture theory. Quite frankly, I think they're very close to achieving that. But then they just got so loud that I've literally, in the past 30 days, read everything I can about Anthropic, and I've come up with a new theory. I call it the Dr. Frankenstein theory. The more I dig, I've met people who, I dare say, think it's their responsibility, and they're excited about, building a species that's superior to humans. Dario wrote this blog post called ‘Machines of Loving Grace.’ It was based on a poem. The last stanza of the poem says, ‘I like to think of a cybernetic ecology where we are free of our labors, and joined back to nature, returned to our mammal brothers and sisters, and all watched over by machines of loving grace.’ Sounds like an overlord to me. And then in Dario's post, he says, ‘It could be a capitalist economy of AI systems which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans…’ So I don't think they think they're writing software. I think they're midwifing a deity here.” Jason: “These are delusions of grandeur. Let's call it what it is. They believe that they're so powerful, these individuals, that they can create God, and that by creating God, they are like this Prometheus kind of species. It literally is the ultimate level of narcissism and delusion of grandeur to think you can create God.”

Bill Gurley: Anthropic Thinks It’s Building God @jason: It is the ultimate level of narcissism and delusion of grandeur to think you can create God. Bill Gurley: “Anthropic is a mystery to me. I've never, ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do. And my initial theory was the regulatory capture theory. Quite frankly, I think they're very close to achieving that. But then they just got so loud that I've literally, in the past 30 days, read everything I can about Anthropic, and I've come up with a new theory. I call it the Dr. Frankenstein theory. The more I dig, I've met people who, I dare say, think it's their responsibility, and they're excited about, building a species that's superior to humans. Dario wrote this blog post called ‘Machines of Loving Grace.’ It was based on a poem. The last stanza of the poem says, ‘I like to think of a cybernetic ecology where we are free of our labors, and joined back to nature, returned to our mammal brothers and sisters, and all watched over by machines of loving grace.’ Sounds like an overlord to me. And then in Dario's post, he says, ‘It could be a capitalist economy of AI systems which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans…’ So I don't think they think they're writing software. I think they're midwifing a deity here.” Jason: “These are delusions of grandeur. Let's call it what it is. They believe that they're so powerful, these individuals, that they can create God, and that by creating God, they are like this Prometheus kind of species. It literally is the ultimate level of narcissism and delusion of grandeur to think you can create God.”

The All-In Podcast

899,763 views • 4 days ago

David Sacks: Nonprofits need to manufacture problems in America to stay in business David Sacks: “Here's the systemic problem with nonprofits and NGOs. Let me just contrast it with business. In business, you set up a company, the company has to make revenue, it has to make profits. And if it doesn't, it's going to go out of business, right? Because it'll lose money. So there's a feedback mechanism from the market. With an NGO, nonprofit, what have you, they raise money. They don't sell things. They fundraise from donors in order to engage in an activity, but what happens over time is the actual activities may stop mattering, and all that really matters is they're able to keep fundraising, right? Because they're just trying to figure out a justification to keep going back to donors to get more and more money out of them. That's what perpetuates the organization.” Chamath: “ Why wouldn't the Southern Poverty Law Center focus on southern poverty? Which is an issue that actually still exists in some shape or form. Why do you call it one thing, focus on racism, and then all of a sudden whip up fake racism?” Sacks: “I do think that at one time in this country, civil rights was a noble cause, a very legitimate cause. We had the legacy of segregation and Jim Crow, and there were groups that were set up to basically change that, and they succeeded. But again, no one in an NGO or a nonprofit ever declares victory. When Obama got elected in 2008, regardless of whether you liked Obama or not, or agreed with his politics, I thought that at that point, most people could see that this was not a racist country. Whatever else you could say, the fact that the highest office in the land was not denied to anybody showed that this country was not holding people back based on their skin color. And instead of just basically packing up shop and saying, ‘Okay, we've achieved our goal,’ the goalposts all got moved. Remember, that's when the whole anti-racism thing started, was around Obama's second term. If they just said at that time, ‘You know what, we're going to move the goalposts from equality of opportunity to equality of results. We're going to basically make everyone equal at the finish line,’ which is to say, identity socialism. People would've said, ‘Eh, no, we're not on board for that.’ So instead, they created this whole new terminology to justify it. And it's taken us years to unpack that and realize what's really going on.”

David Sacks: Nonprofits need to manufacture problems in America to stay in business David Sacks: “Here's the systemic problem with nonprofits and NGOs. Let me just contrast it with business. In business, you set up a company, the company has to make revenue, it has to make profits. And if it doesn't, it's going to go out of business, right? Because it'll lose money. So there's a feedback mechanism from the market. With an NGO, nonprofit, what have you, they raise money. They don't sell things. They fundraise from donors in order to engage in an activity, but what happens over time is the actual activities may stop mattering, and all that really matters is they're able to keep fundraising, right? Because they're just trying to figure out a justification to keep going back to donors to get more and more money out of them. That's what perpetuates the organization.” Chamath: “ Why wouldn't the Southern Poverty Law Center focus on southern poverty? Which is an issue that actually still exists in some shape or form. Why do you call it one thing, focus on racism, and then all of a sudden whip up fake racism?” Sacks: “I do think that at one time in this country, civil rights was a noble cause, a very legitimate cause. We had the legacy of segregation and Jim Crow, and there were groups that were set up to basically change that, and they succeeded. But again, no one in an NGO or a nonprofit ever declares victory. When Obama got elected in 2008, regardless of whether you liked Obama or not, or agreed with his politics, I thought that at that point, most people could see that this was not a racist country. Whatever else you could say, the fact that the highest office in the land was not denied to anybody showed that this country was not holding people back based on their skin color. And instead of just basically packing up shop and saying, ‘Okay, we've achieved our goal,’ the goalposts all got moved. Remember, that's when the whole anti-racism thing started, was around Obama's second term. If they just said at that time, ‘You know what, we're going to move the goalposts from equality of opportunity to equality of results. We're going to basically make everyone equal at the finish line,’ which is to say, identity socialism. People would've said, ‘Eh, no, we're not on board for that.’ So instead, they created this whole new terminology to justify it. And it's taken us years to unpack that and realize what's really going on.”

The All-In Podcast

11,691,750 views • 1 month ago

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months Chamath Palihapitiya: “ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today. Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically. When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.”

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months Chamath Palihapitiya: “ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today. Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically. When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.”

The All-In Podcast

1,846,956 views • 17 days ago

POD UP! 🚨 Sacks is BACK... and the legendary Bill Gurley fills in for Friedberg! -- Pope Leo vs AI -- Anthropic's Digital God -- Open Source Under Attack? -- The Great AI Jobs Debate ++ Much More! (0:00) Bill Gurley joins the show! (6:00) Making yourself valuable in the age of AI, first class of "AI Natives" (17:37) Reacting to Pope Leo's AI encyclical: Who guards the guardians? (26:54) Anthropic's Digital God: Do they believe they are creating a superior species? (38:32) AI sovereignty, the next era of privacy, open-source crackdown coming? (59:56) The Great AI Jobs Debate: Dario and Altman flip their rhetoric, Goldman CEO says no AI job apocalypse

POD UP! 🚨 Sacks is BACK... and the legendary Bill Gurley fills in for Friedberg! -- Pope Leo vs AI -- Anthropic's Digital God -- Open Source Under Attack? -- The Great AI Jobs Debate ++ Much More! (0:00) Bill Gurley joins the show! (6:00) Making yourself valuable in the age of AI, first class of "AI Natives" (17:37) Reacting to Pope Leo's AI encyclical: Who guards the guardians? (26:54) Anthropic's Digital God: Do they believe they are creating a superior species? (38:32) AI sovereignty, the next era of privacy, open-source crackdown coming? (59:56) The Great AI Jobs Debate: Dario and Altman flip their rhetoric, Goldman CEO says no AI job apocalypse

The All-In Podcast

342,045 views • 5 days ago

Jason Calacanis on SpaceX's Unknown Origin Story: Elon Wanted to Back Up the Biosphere in Space! @jason: “Most people don't remember this, but when Elon Musk was starting SpaceX, the original idea when he was running around with Adeo and they were looking at some rockets and getting carriage from Russian rockets was to back up the biosphere.” “And he came back from that trip and I remember talking to him about it and he said, ‘I think I just have to make my own rockets because that's actually where the problem is, and it would be easier just to make my own rocket to back up the biosphere.’ And he wanted to put geo-domes, like geodesic domes in space, with all the plants, wildlife, and creatures. What incredible vision. And then there was the necessity of actually getting that up into space, and that's the unknown origin story.”

Jason Calacanis on SpaceX's Unknown Origin Story: Elon Wanted to Back Up the Biosphere in Space! @jason: “Most people don't remember this, but when Elon Musk was starting SpaceX, the original idea when he was running around with Adeo and they were looking at some rockets and getting carriage from Russian rockets was to back up the biosphere.” “And he came back from that trip and I remember talking to him about it and he said, ‘I think I just have to make my own rockets because that's actually where the problem is, and it would be easier just to make my own rocket to back up the biosphere.’ And he wanted to put geo-domes, like geodesic domes in space, with all the plants, wildlife, and creatures. What incredible vision. And then there was the necessity of actually getting that up into space, and that's the unknown origin story.”

The All-In Podcast

794,456 views • 11 days ago

Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done “It is a crucible moment for American society.” “If nothing happens and we deem this kind of theft acceptable, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire.” “It's just a level of disrespect and lack of care for this country.” “I will be waiting and observing how important it is to root this out, that's number one.” “The second, which is more tactical political calculus, this is an enormous opportunity for the Republican Party if they take this and run with this.” “Is there waste, fraud and abuse in every state? Absolutely. I don't think this is endemically a Democratic problem, but the scale of it is so gargantuan in these Democratic states that if the Republicans don't take advantage of it, I think it is a huge political miscalculation.” “So there is this tactical opportunity, which I think if you want to have a chance in the midterms and if you generally wanna have a chance to level-set the country, you must take this and run with it.” “And then separately, if as Friedberg says, it does die on the vine, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire, unfortunately.”

Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done “It is a crucible moment for American society.” “If nothing happens and we deem this kind of theft acceptable, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire.” “It's just a level of disrespect and lack of care for this country.” “I will be waiting and observing how important it is to root this out, that's number one.” “The second, which is more tactical political calculus, this is an enormous opportunity for the Republican Party if they take this and run with this.” “Is there waste, fraud and abuse in every state? Absolutely. I don't think this is endemically a Democratic problem, but the scale of it is so gargantuan in these Democratic states that if the Republicans don't take advantage of it, I think it is a huge political miscalculation.” “So there is this tactical opportunity, which I think if you want to have a chance in the midterms and if you generally wanna have a chance to level-set the country, you must take this and run with it.” “And then separately, if as Friedberg says, it does die on the vine, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire, unfortunately.”

The All-In Podcast

10,554,743 views • 5 months ago

first video from the All-In Summit 2025 - in conversation with Elon Musk available exclusively on X (0:00) Besties welcome Elon via Starlink (05:31) Ukraine and Starlink (19:10) green shoots of X (22:24) the creator economy and optimizing the X experience (26:43) the ADL, free speech, and advocating for peace (32:41) China (37:20) AI (44:30) where are we with self-driving? and MUCH more

first video from the All-In Summit 2025 - in conversation with Elon Musk available exclusively on X (0:00) Besties welcome Elon via Starlink (05:31) Ukraine and Starlink (19:10) green shoots of X (22:24) the creator economy and optimizing the X experience (26:43) the ADL, free speech, and advocating for peace (32:41) China (37:20) AI (44:30) where are we with self-driving? and MUCH more

The All-In Podcast

80,972,636 views • 2 years ago

ALL-IN POD IS LIVE! 🚨 Massive show Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) subs in for Sacks to talk: -- Andrej Karpathy Joining Anthropic: Impact on the AI Race? -- SpaceX S-1 Breakdown: The $2T Case, Elon Web Services, Datacenters in Space -- Nvidia’s Big Beat and Shock Selloff -- Why America Has Turned on AI -- Trump Pulls AI Order -- Market Update: Inflation, Bond Crisis? -- Did the US-China Summit Flop? (0:00) Gavin Baker joins the show! (0:30) Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic; hypergrowth and profitability (12:42) Why Americans have turned on AI, anti-human perception (27:22) Trump pulls AI EO, US-China AI relationship, dystopian AI layoffs (45:19) SpaceX S-1 tear down! Three major businesses and the case for $2T (1:11:22) Nvidia smashes earnings but stock falls, why people are shorting chips (1:22:25) Market update: Flashing red signals, oil, inflation, yields up (1:32:45) China trip flops, or was progress made behind the scenes?

ALL-IN POD IS LIVE! 🚨 Massive show Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) subs in for Sacks to talk: -- Andrej Karpathy Joining Anthropic: Impact on the AI Race? -- SpaceX S-1 Breakdown: The $2T Case, Elon Web Services, Datacenters in Space -- Nvidia’s Big Beat and Shock Selloff -- Why America Has Turned on AI -- Trump Pulls AI Order -- Market Update: Inflation, Bond Crisis? -- Did the US-China Summit Flop? (0:00) Gavin Baker joins the show! (0:30) Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic; hypergrowth and profitability (12:42) Why Americans have turned on AI, anti-human perception (27:22) Trump pulls AI EO, US-China AI relationship, dystopian AI layoffs (45:19) SpaceX S-1 tear down! Three major businesses and the case for $2T (1:11:22) Nvidia smashes earnings but stock falls, why people are shorting chips (1:22:25) Market update: Flashing red signals, oil, inflation, yields up (1:32:45) China trip flops, or was progress made behind the scenes?

The All-In Podcast

391,509 views • 11 days ago

David Sacks: “ The Democrats want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.” 🚨 “And you can see this in the 2030 apportionment forecast, which just came out.” “Illegal aliens count towards the census, which occurs every decade, and the census determines the apportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes.” “And what you see in these maps is that citizens of blue states have been migrating to red states because those blue states are failing.” “As a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine house seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers.” “Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers, and so for example, in the last election, President Trump would've won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.”

David Sacks: “ The Democrats want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.” 🚨 “And you can see this in the 2030 apportionment forecast, which just came out.” “Illegal aliens count towards the census, which occurs every decade, and the census determines the apportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes.” “And what you see in these maps is that citizens of blue states have been migrating to red states because those blue states are failing.” “As a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine house seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers.” “Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers, and so for example, in the last election, President Trump would've won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.”

The All-In Podcast

5,792,176 views • 4 months ago

🚨 BIG INTERVIEW: SPENCER PRATT JOINS ALL-IN David Friedberg sits down with Spencer Pratt to discuss his fight to save Los Angeles. (0:00) Spencer Pratt vs. the Machine (3:01) Inside the Palisades Fire: Drained Reservoirs, No Sirens & Watching His House Burn on His Phone (14:03) Why He's Running for Mayor: FireAid's $100M Scandal & the NGO Corruption Nobody Talks About (28:10) Karen Bass at 20% & the Real State of LA: Crime, Homelessness & a City in Free Fall (38:23) Spencer's Plan to Fix LA: Enforcing Laws, Auditing Everyone & the Billionaires Ready to Rebuild (52:22) Hollywood, LAUSD & Small Business: What It Actually Takes to Make LA #1 Again (56:25) The Permitting Nightmare Killing Small Business & How AI Fixes It Overnight (1:04:22) His 8-Year Vision david friedberg Spencer Pratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at Axon by AppLovin

🚨 BIG INTERVIEW: SPENCER PRATT JOINS ALL-IN David Friedberg sits down with Spencer Pratt to discuss his fight to save Los Angeles. (0:00) Spencer Pratt vs. the Machine (3:01) Inside the Palisades Fire: Drained Reservoirs, No Sirens & Watching His House Burn on His Phone (14:03) Why He's Running for Mayor: FireAid's $100M Scandal & the NGO Corruption Nobody Talks About (28:10) Karen Bass at 20% & the Real State of LA: Crime, Homelessness & a City in Free Fall (38:23) Spencer's Plan to Fix LA: Enforcing Laws, Auditing Everyone & the Billionaires Ready to Rebuild (52:22) Hollywood, LAUSD & Small Business: What It Actually Takes to Make LA #1 Again (56:25) The Permitting Nightmare Killing Small Business & How AI Fixes It Overnight (1:04:22) His 8-Year Vision david friedberg Spencer Pratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at Axon by AppLovin

The All-In Podcast

730,131 views • 24 days ago

Spencer Pratt: I will empower architects and builders to make LA beautiful again. “ We're going have LA so beautiful. No more of these high-density, SB-79, prison-like structures. We need to bring Art Deco back. All the architects that moved out of here because it was so hard to build, takes eight years, they're going to be moving back, because we're going to speed up building. It's not going to take eight years. I talked to an architect today, one of the most famous architects in the world. He has a crew of 12 architects, they already did all these designs for these buildings and nobody listened to them. They met with Newsom, they met with Bass. Of course I'm like, “Let's do it, send me over the decks.” And then the YIMBY people, they can have all their bike lanes going through the sky, through tunnels. “We need LA to be the most beautiful architecture in the world.” david friedberg Spencer Pratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at Axon by AppLovin

Spencer Pratt: I will empower architects and builders to make LA beautiful again. “ We're going have LA so beautiful. No more of these high-density, SB-79, prison-like structures. We need to bring Art Deco back. All the architects that moved out of here because it was so hard to build, takes eight years, they're going to be moving back, because we're going to speed up building. It's not going to take eight years. I talked to an architect today, one of the most famous architects in the world. He has a crew of 12 architects, they already did all these designs for these buildings and nobody listened to them. They met with Newsom, they met with Bass. Of course I'm like, “Let's do it, send me over the decks.” And then the YIMBY people, they can have all their bike lanes going through the sky, through tunnels. “We need LA to be the most beautiful architecture in the world.” david friedberg Spencer Pratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at Axon by AppLovin

The All-In Podcast

617,660 views • 22 days ago

The Media is Not Doing its Job Chamath Palihapitiya breaks down the viral "sharp as a tack" clip: "Six minutes of 100 spokespeople and proxies, and they all had the same thing to say about President Biden, which is, 'He is sharp as a tack.'" "If I asked 100 people on the street, 'What do you think of Elon Musk?' You'd have 100 different statements. There be a general theme, but you would not have even 50 people repeat the exact same words." "You have this funny situation where 100 different people were basically saying the exact same talking point. So it's not even a point of view. It was just something that they were told to say by somebody else." "And that is the real issue: you don't really have an honest media here. So there is no check and balance on power right now."

The Media is Not Doing its Job Chamath Palihapitiya breaks down the viral "sharp as a tack" clip: "Six minutes of 100 spokespeople and proxies, and they all had the same thing to say about President Biden, which is, 'He is sharp as a tack.'" "If I asked 100 people on the street, 'What do you think of Elon Musk?' You'd have 100 different statements. There be a general theme, but you would not have even 50 people repeat the exact same words." "You have this funny situation where 100 different people were basically saying the exact same talking point. So it's not even a point of view. It was just something that they were told to say by somebody else." "And that is the real issue: you don't really have an honest media here. So there is no check and balance on power right now."

The All-In Podcast

36,371,523 views • 1 year ago

Chamath Lays Out the Case for SpaceX at $2 Trillion – Starlink: the most important internet infra project since the internet itself – Rockets: underlying platform that allows everything else to happen – AI: apps top layer, datacenter bottom layer – The Elon Flywheel: operating leverage ➡️ investment ➡️ competitive moat ➡️ capital moat ➡️ technology moat ➡️ execution/learning moat – Potential Tesla merger down the road – Elon’s premium for being “the guy” right now Chamath Palihapitiya: “ If I'm asking myself, ‘Chamath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at $2T?’ Here's the basic math that I would do. Last year it did $18-19 billion. It'll probably do $25-30 billion this year. So I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right? So what am I buying? I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself. That's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users, and the reason that's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful, and it's just going to become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So that's number one. I'm buying a delivery infrastructure, I think over time, GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15, kind of a grower. So good business, valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen. And then I'm buying an AI business, which will be at the top level the apps, but at the bottom layer all the compute capability. So I suspect what happens is next year it's probably $40-45 billion. And then the year after that it probably doubles again, so then I'm buying it at 20x revenue. And you would say, ‘Well, why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus earnings and cash flow?’ And I think the reason is because what the revenue does is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate his differentiation and his competitive moat, because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a technology moat, that then accelerates an execution and a learning moat. And that flywheel, when it starts to spin very quickly, and you would say, ‘Hey, hold on a second. It's probably spinning quickly now.’ I would say we're at the beginning of the beginning. He still has all these disparate assets. I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here, and as I've told you, that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z, right? That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years. And he has this one thing that nobody else, if you look at the big CEOs, who steps on stage where you're always curious, ‘Okay, what has he got up his sleeve?’ You know, the Steve Jobs, ‘Oh, and one more thing.’ He's the guy. Whether you like him or you hate him, he's the guy, and there's a premium that is well-deserved that comes with that.”

Chamath Lays Out the Case for SpaceX at $2 Trillion – Starlink: the most important internet infra project since the internet itself – Rockets: underlying platform that allows everything else to happen – AI: apps top layer, datacenter bottom layer – The Elon Flywheel: operating leverage ➡️ investment ➡️ competitive moat ➡️ capital moat ➡️ technology moat ➡️ execution/learning moat – Potential Tesla merger down the road – Elon’s premium for being “the guy” right now Chamath Palihapitiya: “ If I'm asking myself, ‘Chamath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at $2T?’ Here's the basic math that I would do. Last year it did $18-19 billion. It'll probably do $25-30 billion this year. So I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right? So what am I buying? I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself. That's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users, and the reason that's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful, and it's just going to become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So that's number one. I'm buying a delivery infrastructure, I think over time, GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15, kind of a grower. So good business, valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen. And then I'm buying an AI business, which will be at the top level the apps, but at the bottom layer all the compute capability. So I suspect what happens is next year it's probably $40-45 billion. And then the year after that it probably doubles again, so then I'm buying it at 20x revenue. And you would say, ‘Well, why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus earnings and cash flow?’ And I think the reason is because what the revenue does is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate his differentiation and his competitive moat, because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a technology moat, that then accelerates an execution and a learning moat. And that flywheel, when it starts to spin very quickly, and you would say, ‘Hey, hold on a second. It's probably spinning quickly now.’ I would say we're at the beginning of the beginning. He still has all these disparate assets. I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here, and as I've told you, that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z, right? That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years. And he has this one thing that nobody else, if you look at the big CEOs, who steps on stage where you're always curious, ‘Okay, what has he got up his sleeve?’ You know, the Steve Jobs, ‘Oh, and one more thing.’ He's the guy. Whether you like him or you hate him, he's the guy, and there's a premium that is well-deserved that comes with that.”

The All-In Podcast

222,400 views • 10 days ago

E184: in conversation with Donald J. Trump, live on X (0:00) bestie intros: big house talk! (1:37) economy: regulation, taxes, tariffs, taming inflation, de-dollarization (12:02) federal debt: growth, spend control, where to cut, role of energy, nuclear (20:22) foreign policy: ukraine/russia (25:05) foreign policy: israel/palestine (28:13) abortion: stance on a national ban (31:09) foreign policy: china (32:33) covid: origins, fauci relationship, deep state, bad deals (39:39) border: wall, immigration, h-1bs, recruiting global talent (46:07) jfk files: full release, importance of transparency (48:06) debate prediction (50:15) post-interview debrief

E184: in conversation with Donald J. Trump, live on X (0:00) bestie intros: big house talk! (1:37) economy: regulation, taxes, tariffs, taming inflation, de-dollarization (12:02) federal debt: growth, spend control, where to cut, role of energy, nuclear (20:22) foreign policy: ukraine/russia (25:05) foreign policy: israel/palestine (28:13) abortion: stance on a national ban (31:09) foreign policy: china (32:33) covid: origins, fauci relationship, deep state, bad deals (39:39) border: wall, immigration, h-1bs, recruiting global talent (46:07) jfk files: full release, importance of transparency (48:06) debate prediction (50:15) post-interview debrief

The All-In Podcast

25,635,587 views • 1 year ago

What Happens When AI Tokens Cost More Than Your Employees? @jason: “We, with our agents, hit $300/day per agent using the Claude API, like instantly. And that was doing, maybe, 10 or 20%. That's $100k/year per agent.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “We're getting to a place where we have to basically now say, ‘What is the token budget that we're willing to give our best devs?’” “And then if you aggregate it across all people, you can clearly see a trend where you're like, ‘Well, hold on a second, now they need to be at least 2x as productive as another employee.’” “That is actively happening inside my business, because otherwise I'll run out of money.” Jason: “Yeah. This is a very interesting trend that you're not going to hear anybody else talk about, but when do tokens outpace the salary of the employee?” “Because you're about to hit it. I'm about to hit it.”

What Happens When AI Tokens Cost More Than Your Employees? @jason: “We, with our agents, hit $300/day per agent using the Claude API, like instantly. And that was doing, maybe, 10 or 20%. That's $100k/year per agent.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “We're getting to a place where we have to basically now say, ‘What is the token budget that we're willing to give our best devs?’” “And then if you aggregate it across all people, you can clearly see a trend where you're like, ‘Well, hold on a second, now they need to be at least 2x as productive as another employee.’” “That is actively happening inside my business, because otherwise I'll run out of money.” Jason: “Yeah. This is a very interesting trend that you're not going to hear anybody else talk about, but when do tokens outpace the salary of the employee?” “Because you're about to hit it. I'm about to hit it.”

The All-In Podcast

2,713,108 views • 3 months ago

full two-hour conversation with GOP candidate Chris Christie... live on X! the former nj governor joins the besties and goes deep on: (2:14) national debt crisis (14:04) foreign policy (25:28) ukraine/russia (36:47) defense spend, zero-based budgeting (50:01) immigration (1:02:24) fentanyl crisis, criminal justice reform (1:17:41) prosecuting trump (1:23:16) past controversies and MUCH more

full two-hour conversation with GOP candidate Chris Christie... live on X! the former nj governor joins the besties and goes deep on: (2:14) national debt crisis (14:04) foreign policy (25:28) ukraine/russia (36:47) defense spend, zero-based budgeting (50:01) immigration (1:02:24) fentanyl crisis, criminal justice reform (1:17:41) prosecuting trump (1:23:16) past controversies and MUCH more

The All-In Podcast

29,232,648 views • 2 years ago

E143 - now in full on X! (0:00) Bestie intros: Friedberg's interview with NASA Astronaut Woody Hoburg, live from the ISS! (2:58) All-In Tequila update (10:04) Nvidia smashes earnings, GPU market outlook (37:39) Arm files for IPO: positive sign or plank walk? Plus: State of the IPO market (49:51) Sacks on current investable metrics right now in VC (55:33) GOP Debate breakdown: Vivek's statement, DeSantis's strategy, Haley & Christie solidify positions (1:39:46) Vivek's comments on the Climate Agenda (1:47:07) Prigozhin crash

E143 - now in full on X! (0:00) Bestie intros: Friedberg's interview with NASA Astronaut Woody Hoburg, live from the ISS! (2:58) All-In Tequila update (10:04) Nvidia smashes earnings, GPU market outlook (37:39) Arm files for IPO: positive sign or plank walk? Plus: State of the IPO market (49:51) Sacks on current investable metrics right now in VC (55:33) GOP Debate breakdown: Vivek's statement, DeSantis's strategy, Haley & Christie solidify positions (1:39:46) Vivek's comments on the Climate Agenda (1:47:07) Prigozhin crash

The All-In Podcast

29,445,178 views • 2 years ago

“Rumination is the path to unhappiness.” - J Cal “Nobody gives a sh*t about your feelings.” “It's only going to make you miserable.” “Just do what I've been doing for 30 years: Retardmaxxing.” “All you have to do is work. Start new projects, 9 out of 10 fail. One wins, and you're golden. Go sit courtside at the Knicks game.” “Keep going. Just keep moving forward. Don't write anything down.”

“Rumination is the path to unhappiness.” - J Cal “Nobody gives a sh*t about your feelings.” “It's only going to make you miserable.” “Just do what I've been doing for 30 years: Retardmaxxing.” “All you have to do is work. Start new projects, 9 out of 10 fail. One wins, and you're golden. Go sit courtside at the Knicks game.” “Keep going. Just keep moving forward. Don't write anything down.”

The All-In Podcast

575,238 views • 1 month ago

POD UP! 🚨 Fifth Bestie Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) fills in for Friedberg -- Elon's Anthropic deal: impact on SpaceX IPO, Anthropic's insane trajectory -- Dario's potential monopoly... could Anthropic overtake the Mag 7? -- The "FDA for AI" panic: Policy flip or fake news? -- Trading the AI market, state of the economy (0:00) Bestie intros! Thoughts on the LA mayor election (4:38) SpaceX-Anthropic deal, Elon Web Services, SpaceX IPO valuation, Anthropic's insane growth trajectory (26:48) Is Anthropic the next great monopoly? Early signals or major overreaction? (35:21) "FDA for AI" freakout, how the White House thinks about AI safety (52:01) Flipping AI's negative perception: Giving, healthcare and education innovation (1:00:04) Trading the AI market, state of the economy

POD UP! 🚨 Fifth Bestie Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) fills in for Friedberg -- Elon's Anthropic deal: impact on SpaceX IPO, Anthropic's insane trajectory -- Dario's potential monopoly... could Anthropic overtake the Mag 7? -- The "FDA for AI" panic: Policy flip or fake news? -- Trading the AI market, state of the economy (0:00) Bestie intros! Thoughts on the LA mayor election (4:38) SpaceX-Anthropic deal, Elon Web Services, SpaceX IPO valuation, Anthropic's insane growth trajectory (26:48) Is Anthropic the next great monopoly? Early signals or major overreaction? (35:21) "FDA for AI" freakout, how the White House thinks about AI safety (52:01) Flipping AI's negative perception: Giving, healthcare and education innovation (1:00:04) Trading the AI market, state of the economy

The All-In Podcast

431,957 views • 26 days ago

Chamath: Tesla and Google are best positioned to win AI because they are building the full-stack Jason: "The game here is who wins the AI prize five years from now?" "Chamath, who's your number one and number two?" Chamath: " Tesla's one and Google's two." "And the reason is because they are the closest to having that vertically integrated stack that I spoke about." TESLA 1⃣ "I think that Tesla has the best vision models." "Now with xAI, they'll have one of the best LLMs and reasoning models." "And they'll be able to eventually stick that on Dojo." "And then all of that will be in all of the physical AI that you will interact with in your daily life." "Whether it's a robot, or whether it's a car, or whether it's a Robotaxi. So that's number one." GOOGLE 2⃣ "And then number two, for many of the same reasons, I think Google." "Because you'll have the Gemini family of models, which just absolutely kick ass." "Like Veo 3, which we haven't really spoke about, is gonna destroy Hollywood in the next year, like Hollywood is done, I think." "But they're landing model after model." "They have the TPU, and the next generation TPU I think is exceptional." "They're baking quantum." "And then they have an entire funnel of billions of people that they can direct experiences to." "So Tesla one, Google two."

Chamath: Tesla and Google are best positioned to win AI because they are building the full-stack Jason: "The game here is who wins the AI prize five years from now?" "Chamath, who's your number one and number two?" Chamath: " Tesla's one and Google's two." "And the reason is because they are the closest to having that vertically integrated stack that I spoke about." TESLA 1⃣ "I think that Tesla has the best vision models." "Now with xAI, they'll have one of the best LLMs and reasoning models." "And they'll be able to eventually stick that on Dojo." "And then all of that will be in all of the physical AI that you will interact with in your daily life." "Whether it's a robot, or whether it's a car, or whether it's a Robotaxi. So that's number one." GOOGLE 2⃣ "And then number two, for many of the same reasons, I think Google." "Because you'll have the Gemini family of models, which just absolutely kick ass." "Like Veo 3, which we haven't really spoke about, is gonna destroy Hollywood in the next year, like Hollywood is done, I think." "But they're landing model after model." "They have the TPU, and the next generation TPU I think is exceptional." "They're baking quantum." "And then they have an entire funnel of billions of people that they can direct experiences to." "So Tesla one, Google two."

The All-In Podcast

7,918,531 views • 11 months ago