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This is why there will never be another Buffett Great story by Alice Schroeder Buffett pays attention to detail Buffett knows how many yards of carpet NFM sells and at what profit margin , this level of detail was also across all his other businesses

45,559 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Warren Buffett was asked what he means when he says he doesn’t understand a business. His answer: “It’s not a question of understanding the product. It’s the predictability of the economics of the situation 10 years out — and that’s our problem.” ___ Buffett isn’t saying he can’t understand what a business does. He understands steel. He understands homebuilding. The product, the distribution, the customers — that’s the easy part. What he’s asking is something far more demanding: can I predict the economics of this business with reasonable confidence a decade from now? That’s an entirely different question and why most businesses fall under the “too-hard” pile for Buffett. Here’s an exercise worth trying the next time you’re reviewing a stock: Take a blank piece of paper. No spreadsheet. No model. Just write out your best estimates of what revenues, free cash flow, and earnings will look like over the next five years. Then calculate what you’re paying for the entire business today — and ask yourself honestly whether you’re being well compensated for that ownership. Your estimates will likely be off. That’s fine. That’s not the point. The point is to notice which businesses you can make confident assumptions about five years out — and which ones leave you staring at a “confused page”. That gap in confidence is exactly what Buffett is talking about. You can see an example of how to do this in Rose Celine Investments 🌹 post on $DLO ___ 🎙️ Berkshire 2000 Annual Meeting | CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (04/29/2000)

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®

42,278 views • 3 months ago