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This year, we’re offering FREE 👀 motion capture analysis & comprehensive assessment for pros ($3000+ value). 🚨⁠ ⁠ Start the offseason with clear goals and an objective baseline. 100% free.⁠ ⁠ What’s included: ⁠ ⁠ ➡️ Markerless MoCap Session⁠ ➡️ Web & After-Action MoCap Report⁠ ➡️ Analysis from Biomechanics...

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This year, we’re offering FREE 👀 motion capture analysis & comprehensive assessment for pros ($3000+ value). 🚨⁠ ⁠ Start the offseason with clear goals and an objective baseline. 100% free.⁠ ⁠ What’s included: ⁠ ⁠ ➡️ Markerless MoCap Session⁠ ➡️ Web & After-Action MoCap Report⁠ ➡️ Analysis from Biomechanics team⁠ ➡️ Force Plate & Dynamometer Strength Testing⁠ ➡️ Post-Bullpen Report with Pitch Grades⁠ ➡️ Slo-Mo Edgertronic Video of Arsenal⁠ ➡️ Body Composition Analysis⁠ ➡️ Diagnostic Ultrasound Imaging & Assessment (optional)⁠ ➡️ Live Call to discuss results & next steps⁠ ⁠ What’s the catch?⁠ ⁠ There is no catch. You cover the travel, we provide the world-class assessment.⁠ ⁠ Train with us (or don’t) after seeing what Tread has to offer. ⁠ ⁠ Either way, roll into the offseason with a comprehensive baseline and a clear set of player development goals.⁠ ⁠ Yes, we’re a little crazy for giving away free access to a 7-figure pitching lab and player development staff.⁠ ⁠ And yes, we’re doing it anyway.⁠ ⁠ The event runs from Sep 16 - Nov 15⁠ ⁠ ✅ Reserve your slot at ⁠ Questions? Email contact@treadathletics.com
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This year, we’re offering FREE 👀 motion capture analysis & comprehensive assessment for pros ($3000+ value). 🚨⁠ ⁠ Start the offseason with clear goals and an objective baseline. 100% free.⁠ ⁠ What’s included: ⁠ ⁠ ➡️ Markerless MoCap Session⁠ ➡️ Web & After-Action MoCap Report⁠ ➡️ Analysis from Biomechanics team⁠ ➡️ Force Plate & Dynamometer Strength Testing⁠ ➡️ Post-Bullpen Report with Pitch Grades⁠ ➡️ Slo-Mo Edgertronic Video of Arsenal⁠ ➡️ Body Composition Analysis⁠ ➡️ Diagnostic Ultrasound Imaging & Assessment (optional)⁠ ➡️ Live Call to discuss results & next steps⁠ ⁠ What’s the catch?⁠ ⁠ There is no catch. You cover the travel, we provide the world-class assessment.⁠ ⁠ Train with us (or don’t) after seeing what Tread has to offer. ⁠ ⁠ Either way, roll into the offseason with a comprehensive baseline and a clear set of player development goals.⁠ ⁠ Yes, we’re a little crazy for giving away free access to a 7-figure pitching lab and player development staff.⁠ ⁠ And yes, we’re doing it anyway.⁠ ⁠ The event runs from Sep 16 - Nov 15⁠ ⁠ ✅ Reserve your slot at ⁠ Questions? Email [email protected]

Tread Athletics

53,649 views • 1 year ago

LARRY JOHNSON PREDICTS: US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND Ex CIA Larry Johnson cuts through the noise with a chilling assessment based on troop movements and force deployments right now. Trump has not backed down out of fear. He is simply playing the same games he has played before to lull the Iranians into complacency. A major ground attack is coming fast, and it is aimed straight at the heart of the Strait of Hormuz. THE INVASION TIMELINE ➡️ The United States will launch a ground attack this weekend. ➡️ If bad weather hits, it may be pushed back until Monday or Tuesday. ➡️ If the weather clears, expect it sometime Friday or Saturday. THE TARGETS SELECTED ➡️ They will attack either Car Island or Keshum Island. ➡️ Car Island is one of the most important gas production sites for the Iranians. THE DEPLOYMENT DETAILS ➡️ Massive special operation assets have already been poured into the region. ➡️ Right now they are deployed in Israel and Jordan. ➡️ They will be forward deployed prior to the operation to Aluded Air Force Base in Qatar or possibly Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia. ➡️ Aluded would be the more likely location. THE STATED MISSION ➡️ The attack is ostensibly to open the Strait of Hormuz. THE INEVITABLE FAILURE ➡️ It will fail. ➡️ They may actually take control of Keshum Island. ➡️ But then what? ➡️ Iran still has drones, submarines, underwater drones that are maneuverable, and missiles in the cliffs that line the strait. ➡️ The United States is not sending enough military force to actually open the strait and keep it open. THE DEADLY CONSEQUENCE ➡️ What they are creating is a big fat target that Iran is going to attack. ➡️ This will inflict significant casualties on some of the United States most elite forces. THE BOTTOM LINE Larry Johnson’s assessment is blunt and final: this ground invasion is nothing more than a show of force that will turn America’s best troops into sitting ducks with no path to lasting success or control of the strait. America is about to learn the hard way what happens when you underestimate Iran. #USGroundInvasion #StraitOfHormuz #LarryJohnson #HormuzTrap #EliteForcesAtRisk #IranWar #DoomedOperation
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LARRY JOHNSON PREDICTS: US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND Ex CIA Larry Johnson cuts through the noise with a chilling assessment based on troop movements and force deployments right now. Trump has not backed down out of fear. He is simply playing the same games he has played before to lull the Iranians into complacency. A major ground attack is coming fast, and it is aimed straight at the heart of the Strait of Hormuz. THE INVASION TIMELINE ➡️ The United States will launch a ground attack this weekend. ➡️ If bad weather hits, it may be pushed back until Monday or Tuesday. ➡️ If the weather clears, expect it sometime Friday or Saturday. THE TARGETS SELECTED ➡️ They will attack either Car Island or Keshum Island. ➡️ Car Island is one of the most important gas production sites for the Iranians. THE DEPLOYMENT DETAILS ➡️ Massive special operation assets have already been poured into the region. ➡️ Right now they are deployed in Israel and Jordan. ➡️ They will be forward deployed prior to the operation to Aluded Air Force Base in Qatar or possibly Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia. ➡️ Aluded would be the more likely location. THE STATED MISSION ➡️ The attack is ostensibly to open the Strait of Hormuz. THE INEVITABLE FAILURE ➡️ It will fail. ➡️ They may actually take control of Keshum Island. ➡️ But then what? ➡️ Iran still has drones, submarines, underwater drones that are maneuverable, and missiles in the cliffs that line the strait. ➡️ The United States is not sending enough military force to actually open the strait and keep it open. THE DEADLY CONSEQUENCE ➡️ What they are creating is a big fat target that Iran is going to attack. ➡️ This will inflict significant casualties on some of the United States most elite forces. THE BOTTOM LINE Larry Johnson’s assessment is blunt and final: this ground invasion is nothing more than a show of force that will turn America’s best troops into sitting ducks with no path to lasting success or control of the strait. America is about to learn the hard way what happens when you underestimate Iran. #USGroundInvasion #StraitOfHormuz #LarryJohnson #HormuzTrap #EliteForcesAtRisk #IranWar #DoomedOperation

Mark

175,776 views • 5 months ago

Why is it important to educate parents about the harmful effect social media is having on our kids? ➡️ 32% of Utah youth reported feeling sad or hopeless for two weeks or more in a row during the past year (Sharp data, 2021). ➡️ 18% of Utah youth seriously considered taking their own life in the past year (Sharp data, 2021). ➡️ 1 in 3 U.S. high school students and half of female students had persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, an overall increase of 40% from 2009. (CDC, 2019). ➡️ Rates of major depression doubled for youth from 2010 to 2020 (CDC, 2019). We know social media isn’t the only cause of these alarming trends, but there’s no question that it has played a role. So, what are we doing about it? ➡️ We’ve pulled together experts to share the latest research with the public. ➡️ We’re working with legislators to pass and sign the toughest social media regulation in the country. ➡️ Our administration worked with the Attorney General to take legal action against TikTok. ➡️ We’re unveiling a new public education campaign to help parents and young people better understand the harms of social media and how parents can engage with their kids. Learn more at
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Why is it important to educate parents about the harmful effect social media is having on our kids? ➡️ 32% of Utah youth reported feeling sad or hopeless for two weeks or more in a row during the past year (Sharp data, 2021). ➡️ 18% of Utah youth seriously considered taking their own life in the past year (Sharp data, 2021). ➡️ 1 in 3 U.S. high school students and half of female students had persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, an overall increase of 40% from 2009. (CDC, 2019). ➡️ Rates of major depression doubled for youth from 2010 to 2020 (CDC, 2019). We know social media isn’t the only cause of these alarming trends, but there’s no question that it has played a role. So, what are we doing about it? ➡️ We’ve pulled together experts to share the latest research with the public. ➡️ We’re working with legislators to pass and sign the toughest social media regulation in the country. ➡️ Our administration worked with the Attorney General to take legal action against TikTok. ➡️ We’re unveiling a new public education campaign to help parents and young people better understand the harms of social media and how parents can engage with their kids. Learn more at

Governor Cox

63,262 views • 3 years ago

WE ARE ALREADY IN WORLD WAR III US Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar, a military analyst and combat veteran with 25 years of experience in the region, just delivered one of the clearest warnings yet. Five and a half months after the United States opened a conflict with Iran without a clear political end state, he says the war has already met every historic definition of a world war. What follows is his assessment. THE HISTORIC DEFINITION ➡️ A world war is a large international conflict involving most or all of the world’s major powers, spanning multiple continents, and requiring total societal mobilization. ➡️ By that accepted standard used by historians and war scholars, the current conflict already qualifies. ➡️ “How is this not a world war? I would offer anyone to argue the counterpoint to that.” THE SHOOTING WAR IS ALREADY GLOBAL ➡️ Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Israel and the United States are all directly engaged in combat operations. ➡️ Russia, China, Turkey, Ukraine, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and European powers are being pulled deeper every day through logistics, proxies and strategic necessity. ➡️ The fighting now spans Asia, Africa and reaches into the Western hemisphere. THE PRECIPICE HAS BEEN CROSSED ➡️ Aguilar states we are no longer approaching the threshold — “we are at the doorway of and the door is open and we are stepping into a world war.” ➡️ World War I and World War II did not begin as fully formed global conflicts. They expanded from regional fights through the same pattern of mission creep now visible here. ➡️ “This is how regional wars become world wars.” NO PATH BACK ➡️ There is no clear political end state and no credible pathway to peace in sight. ➡️ The conflict has grown far beyond the original belligerents and continues to expand. ➡️ The next American president will inherit this war in worse condition than it stands today. THE BOTTOM LINE A war launched without a defined political objective has already crossed the historic threshold into a world war. The door is open and the world is walking through it. #WorldWarIII #IranWar #MissionCreep #GlobalConflict #DefinitionMet #NoExit #WarExpansion HT: YouTube Dialogue Works
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WE ARE ALREADY IN WORLD WAR III US Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar, a military analyst and combat veteran with 25 years of experience in the region, just delivered one of the clearest warnings yet. Five and a half months after the United States opened a conflict with Iran without a clear political end state, he says the war has already met every historic definition of a world war. What follows is his assessment. THE HISTORIC DEFINITION ➡️ A world war is a large international conflict involving most or all of the world’s major powers, spanning multiple continents, and requiring total societal mobilization. ➡️ By that accepted standard used by historians and war scholars, the current conflict already qualifies. ➡️ “How is this not a world war? I would offer anyone to argue the counterpoint to that.” THE SHOOTING WAR IS ALREADY GLOBAL ➡️ Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Israel and the United States are all directly engaged in combat operations. ➡️ Russia, China, Turkey, Ukraine, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and European powers are being pulled deeper every day through logistics, proxies and strategic necessity. ➡️ The fighting now spans Asia, Africa and reaches into the Western hemisphere. THE PRECIPICE HAS BEEN CROSSED ➡️ Aguilar states we are no longer approaching the threshold — “we are at the doorway of and the door is open and we are stepping into a world war.” ➡️ World War I and World War II did not begin as fully formed global conflicts. They expanded from regional fights through the same pattern of mission creep now visible here. ➡️ “This is how regional wars become world wars.” NO PATH BACK ➡️ There is no clear political end state and no credible pathway to peace in sight. ➡️ The conflict has grown far beyond the original belligerents and continues to expand. ➡️ The next American president will inherit this war in worse condition than it stands today. THE BOTTOM LINE A war launched without a defined political objective has already crossed the historic threshold into a world war. The door is open and the world is walking through it. #WorldWarIII #IranWar #MissionCreep #GlobalConflict #DefinitionMet #NoExit #WarExpansion HT: YouTube Dialogue Works

Mark

14,018 views • 1 month ago

AMERICA'S IRAN HUMILIATION: THE LESSON THAT EMPOWERS CHINA AND BRICS FOREVER Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke delivers a blunt assessment of the Iran conflict. What was long treated as unchallengeable American military power has been exposed as brittle and limited. The consequences reach far beyond the region and are already strengthening the rising influence of BRICS. THE SHREDDED US STANDING ➡️ This war is shredding the standing of the US military presence. ➡️ It was thought to be invulnerable, unable to be contested or attacked. That has all been proved wrong. ➡️ American military structures have their arches healed. They do not have enough defense weapons. They do not have enough wherewithal to launch a major war. ➡️ They are not doing very well even with a localized war and are making mistakes. THE FIFTH FLEET HOSTAGE ➡️ In 1979 the embassy hostages brought down an American administration. There are no students in an embassy now. There is the Fifth Fleet. ➡️ Where is that? Of Bahrain. That is quite a big hostage. ➡️ Effectively the Fifth Fleet is an Iranian hostage. ➡️ Someone in the White House needs to wise up and get out of this quite quickly. Otherwise it becomes a complete catastrophe for the United States, for its image and for its presence in the world. It will be a humiliation. THE TWO CHOICES ➡️ One path is climbing down from the tree. Psychologically that may prove impossible. ➡️ The other is all-out war. That will finish the standing of the United States as a serious political player or serious military power. ➡️ People will have learned from the Iranian experience exactly how to deal with the United States. THE LESSONS THAT STICK ➡️ The first lesson is to trust in nothing. Nothing said, nothing written, nothing. ➡️ Young people on the streets of Iran ask why anyone is negotiating. He will say one thing one moment and pull it back the next. There is no point talking to a person like that. Forget it. We do not need to deal with the United States. ➡️ The second lesson is clearer still. If you punch the United States in the face, they cannot deal with those blows. They cannot stop them. They are more vulnerable than people thought. THE BRICS BOOST ➡️ This strengthens the BRICS because they can see a weakening America. ➡️ If America has failed to subordinate Iran and reduce it to a vassal, it will not succeed with Russia or China. ➡️ Those states will take strong encouragement from Iran winning the war. ➡️ It will increase China’s insistence on a close relationship with Iran to secure energy supplies. ➡️ China already views the entire process as an attempt to put it under siege by squeezing its energy routes. THE BOTTOM LINE The order that existed before this war is gone forever. Iran has emerged stronger. American military standing has been shredded in public. BRICS powers are drawing the direct conclusion that US dominance is no longer unchallengeable. This is the sound of multipolar power rising while American control slips away. #BRICSRise #IranVictory #USHumiliation #FifthFleetHostage #AlastairCrooke #AmericanDecline #MultipolarWorld HT: YouTube Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
1:42

AMERICA'S IRAN HUMILIATION: THE LESSON THAT EMPOWERS CHINA AND BRICS FOREVER Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke delivers a blunt assessment of the Iran conflict. What was long treated as unchallengeable American military power has been exposed as brittle and limited. The consequences reach far beyond the region and are already strengthening the rising influence of BRICS. THE SHREDDED US STANDING ➡️ This war is shredding the standing of the US military presence. ➡️ It was thought to be invulnerable, unable to be contested or attacked. That has all been proved wrong. ➡️ American military structures have their arches healed. They do not have enough defense weapons. They do not have enough wherewithal to launch a major war. ➡️ They are not doing very well even with a localized war and are making mistakes. THE FIFTH FLEET HOSTAGE ➡️ In 1979 the embassy hostages brought down an American administration. There are no students in an embassy now. There is the Fifth Fleet. ➡️ Where is that? Of Bahrain. That is quite a big hostage. ➡️ Effectively the Fifth Fleet is an Iranian hostage. ➡️ Someone in the White House needs to wise up and get out of this quite quickly. Otherwise it becomes a complete catastrophe for the United States, for its image and for its presence in the world. It will be a humiliation. THE TWO CHOICES ➡️ One path is climbing down from the tree. Psychologically that may prove impossible. ➡️ The other is all-out war. That will finish the standing of the United States as a serious political player or serious military power. ➡️ People will have learned from the Iranian experience exactly how to deal with the United States. THE LESSONS THAT STICK ➡️ The first lesson is to trust in nothing. Nothing said, nothing written, nothing. ➡️ Young people on the streets of Iran ask why anyone is negotiating. He will say one thing one moment and pull it back the next. There is no point talking to a person like that. Forget it. We do not need to deal with the United States. ➡️ The second lesson is clearer still. If you punch the United States in the face, they cannot deal with those blows. They cannot stop them. They are more vulnerable than people thought. THE BRICS BOOST ➡️ This strengthens the BRICS because they can see a weakening America. ➡️ If America has failed to subordinate Iran and reduce it to a vassal, it will not succeed with Russia or China. ➡️ Those states will take strong encouragement from Iran winning the war. ➡️ It will increase China’s insistence on a close relationship with Iran to secure energy supplies. ➡️ China already views the entire process as an attempt to put it under siege by squeezing its energy routes. THE BOTTOM LINE The order that existed before this war is gone forever. Iran has emerged stronger. American military standing has been shredded in public. BRICS powers are drawing the direct conclusion that US dominance is no longer unchallengeable. This is the sound of multipolar power rising while American control slips away. #BRICSRise #IranVictory #USHumiliation #FifthFleetHostage #AlastairCrooke #AmericanDecline #MultipolarWorld HT: YouTube Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

Mark

18,591 views • 2 months ago

IRAN WAR DISASTER: THE WORLD JUST LEARNED HOW WEAK THE US HAND REALLY IS A 20-year Defense Department veteran who spent a decade on missiles and missile defense just delivered a blunt assessment. This war is a disaster for the United States. Not because of any single battlefield loss, but because the entire world can now see the real capabilities of the American military—and those capabilities are not impressive at all. THE UNSUSTAINABLE STANDOFF ➡️ The United States will not invade and the other side knows it, forcing every strike from outside the borders. ➡️ Long-range weapons arrive with limited payloads after burning the fuel needed for hundreds of miles—they are not civilization-ending tools. ➡️ A typical destroyer shares 128 cells across many missions; long-range interceptors form only a fraction of that load. ➡️ Multiple interceptors are fired at each threat. After the first ten to fourteen days the sky filled with eight, ten, even twelve interceptors for every single ballistic missile. ➡️ There is no floating resupply ship. Ships must sail to distant bases such as Diego Garcia—nearly a week one way—plus additional days to reload. ➡️ Every expended magazine removes a ship from the fight for roughly two and a half weeks. THE INDUSTRIAL FAILURE ➡️ Modern missile systems are proprietary and highly specialized. ➡️ Factories cannot be converted overnight the way they were in World War II. ➡️ Even with unlimited funding there is no trained workforce ready to surge production. ➡️ Building real capacity would take years under the best conditions. THE STRATEGIC COST ➡️ The highest levels of the uniformed military understood the stockpile problem from the earliest days. ➡️ Resources were shifted away from other regional partners who had spent years and political capital aligning with the United States. ➡️ Those partners discovered the true value of those relationships under pressure. ➡️ The entire region and every watching power now has a clearer picture of American constraints. THE FATAL REVEAL ➡️ Potential adversaries no longer have to guess what the United States can actually do in a real high-intensity fight. ➡️ The previous aura of overwhelming technological superiority has been stripped away. ➡️ Russia, China, and every other power watching now possess hard data on American limits. THE BOTTOM LINE This war is a disaster for the United States precisely because the sheen is gone. Everybody can now see the real capabilities—and they are not impressive at all. The uncertainty that once protected American power has been replaced by cold, measurable limits. #SheenIsOff #IranWarDisaster #USCapabilities #MilitaryLimitsExposed #StockpileReality #DiegoGarcia #StrategicExposure HT: YouTube Tucker Carlson Network
1:12

IRAN WAR DISASTER: THE WORLD JUST LEARNED HOW WEAK THE US HAND REALLY IS A 20-year Defense Department veteran who spent a decade on missiles and missile defense just delivered a blunt assessment. This war is a disaster for the United States. Not because of any single battlefield loss, but because the entire world can now see the real capabilities of the American military—and those capabilities are not impressive at all. THE UNSUSTAINABLE STANDOFF ➡️ The United States will not invade and the other side knows it, forcing every strike from outside the borders. ➡️ Long-range weapons arrive with limited payloads after burning the fuel needed for hundreds of miles—they are not civilization-ending tools. ➡️ A typical destroyer shares 128 cells across many missions; long-range interceptors form only a fraction of that load. ➡️ Multiple interceptors are fired at each threat. After the first ten to fourteen days the sky filled with eight, ten, even twelve interceptors for every single ballistic missile. ➡️ There is no floating resupply ship. Ships must sail to distant bases such as Diego Garcia—nearly a week one way—plus additional days to reload. ➡️ Every expended magazine removes a ship from the fight for roughly two and a half weeks. THE INDUSTRIAL FAILURE ➡️ Modern missile systems are proprietary and highly specialized. ➡️ Factories cannot be converted overnight the way they were in World War II. ➡️ Even with unlimited funding there is no trained workforce ready to surge production. ➡️ Building real capacity would take years under the best conditions. THE STRATEGIC COST ➡️ The highest levels of the uniformed military understood the stockpile problem from the earliest days. ➡️ Resources were shifted away from other regional partners who had spent years and political capital aligning with the United States. ➡️ Those partners discovered the true value of those relationships under pressure. ➡️ The entire region and every watching power now has a clearer picture of American constraints. THE FATAL REVEAL ➡️ Potential adversaries no longer have to guess what the United States can actually do in a real high-intensity fight. ➡️ The previous aura of overwhelming technological superiority has been stripped away. ➡️ Russia, China, and every other power watching now possess hard data on American limits. THE BOTTOM LINE This war is a disaster for the United States precisely because the sheen is gone. Everybody can now see the real capabilities—and they are not impressive at all. The uncertainty that once protected American power has been replaced by cold, measurable limits. #SheenIsOff #IranWarDisaster #USCapabilities #MilitaryLimitsExposed #StockpileReality #DiegoGarcia #StrategicExposure HT: YouTube Tucker Carlson Network

Mark

152,968 views • 1 month ago

24 HOURS HAVE PASSED AND YOUTUBE ARE IGNORING THIS! Our video has now surpassed 100,000 views, reached the Trending section, and thousands of people have commented, shared and tagged TeamYouTube asking for someone to simply take a proper look at our case. Meanwhile, we’ve watched TeamYouTube respond to countless other posts, yet there has still been no meaningful response to ours. We’re not asking for special treatment. We’re asking for exactly what every creator deserves: ➡️ A genuine human review. ➡️ A clear explanation of what policy was supposedly violated. ➡️ The opportunity to understand and, if necessary, challenge the decision. After building a channel with 315,000 subscribers, 2,600 videos, and 175 million views, it shouldn’t be impossible to speak to a real person. If you’ve supported us so far, thank you. It genuinely means a lot. Please keep sharing this video and tagging TeamYouTube. All we want is for someone to finally look at the case properly. #YouTube #TeamYouTube #FreeSpeech #ContentCreator #YouTubeCreators
2:44

24 HOURS HAVE PASSED AND YOUTUBE ARE IGNORING THIS! Our video has now surpassed 100,000 views, reached the Trending section, and thousands of people have commented, shared and tagged TeamYouTube asking for someone to simply take a proper look at our case. Meanwhile, we’ve watched TeamYouTube respond to countless other posts, yet there has still been no meaningful response to ours. We’re not asking for special treatment. We’re asking for exactly what every creator deserves: ➡️ A genuine human review. ➡️ A clear explanation of what policy was supposedly violated. ➡️ The opportunity to understand and, if necessary, challenge the decision. After building a channel with 315,000 subscribers, 2,600 videos, and 175 million views, it shouldn’t be impossible to speak to a real person. If you’ve supported us so far, thank you. It genuinely means a lot. Please keep sharing this video and tagging TeamYouTube. All we want is for someone to finally look at the case properly. #YouTube #TeamYouTube #FreeSpeech #ContentCreator #YouTubeCreators

British Stand

16,726 views • 1 month ago

THE FOURTH CENTER OF WORLD POWER EMERGES: PAPE'S PREDICTION COMES TRUE IN REAL TIME Professor Robert Pape has delivered a clear-eyed assessment of the Iran war now past day 100. What began as a fight for survival has shifted into something far more ambitious and dangerous. Iran is no longer reacting. It is actively reshaping the region while American influence erodes in real time. The consequences for global power and economic stability are only beginning to register. THE CORE THESIS: IRAN FROM SURVIVAL TO AMBITION ➡️ Iran has moved from survival to ambition in the middle game of this conflict. ➡️ The regime is no longer focused only on protecting itself inside Tehran. ➡️ A new security belt of resistance now runs from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea. ➡️ Iran is using this architecture to pressure Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain to remove American forces from their territory. ➡️ Strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut triggered immediate Iranian threats against Israel as part of enforcing new red lines. THE TRUMP CONTROL COLLAPSE ➡️ President Trump still speaks and acts as if America remains the dominant power in full control. ➡️ Iran is simply ignoring his calls for negotiations and has publicly laid out its own demands without hesitation. ➡️ Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took Trump's calls but then defied his direct order not to retaliate. ➡️ For 72 days Trump has claimed a deal with Iran is only days away yet nothing has changed. ➡️ His optimistic rhetoric has lost all connection to reality because America has lost ground as Iran has gained it. THE EMERGENCE OF THE FOURTH WORLD POWER ➡️ Pape warned months ago that Iran was on track to become the fourth center of world power as the dominant state in the Gulf. ➡️ This status means building a genuine sphere of influence where Iran protects and coordinates with allies rather than treating them as expendable. ➡️ The old view of groups like Hezbollah as mere pawns has been reversed by Iran's growing strength. ➡️ Recent Iranian actions have already forced the United States to pressure Israel to pull back. ➡️ This new position will strengthen further when the coming economic crisis hits world markets later this summer. THE MIDDLE GAME THAT LIES AHEAD ➡️ This phase of ambition and escalation will run through the summer and deep into the fall midterms. ➡️ Iran sees clear opportunities to exploit political timelines in both the United States and Israel. ➡️ A major disruption to the global economy driven by regional instability now appears almost locked in. ➡️ Hopes of wrapping the conflict up neatly by Labor Day for domestic political reasons do not match Iran's strategic thinking. THE WEAKENING OF ISRAEL ➡️ Israel's freedom of action is beginning to shrink as its main backer loses strategic ground in the region. ➡️ Iranian-backed forces are showing early signs of more coordinated and sophisticated drone and missile operations. ➡️ The recent expansion of Houthi threats against Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea marks a widening of the conflict theater. ➡️ Over time the combination of reduced American support and rising proxy capabilities will place Israel under growing pressure. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape makes the stakes unmistakable. Iran has flipped from a strategy of pure survival into one of expanding ambition and the United States has lost the control it once took for granted. This is the sound of a new center of world power rising while old assumptions fall apart. HT: YouTube Breaking Points #IranWar #FourthWorldPower #AxisOfResistance #TrumpLosingControl #MiddleGame #SecurityBelt #PapeAnalysis
1:14

THE FOURTH CENTER OF WORLD POWER EMERGES: PAPE'S PREDICTION COMES TRUE IN REAL TIME Professor Robert Pape has delivered a clear-eyed assessment of the Iran war now past day 100. What began as a fight for survival has shifted into something far more ambitious and dangerous. Iran is no longer reacting. It is actively reshaping the region while American influence erodes in real time. The consequences for global power and economic stability are only beginning to register. THE CORE THESIS: IRAN FROM SURVIVAL TO AMBITION ➡️ Iran has moved from survival to ambition in the middle game of this conflict. ➡️ The regime is no longer focused only on protecting itself inside Tehran. ➡️ A new security belt of resistance now runs from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea. ➡️ Iran is using this architecture to pressure Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain to remove American forces from their territory. ➡️ Strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut triggered immediate Iranian threats against Israel as part of enforcing new red lines. THE TRUMP CONTROL COLLAPSE ➡️ President Trump still speaks and acts as if America remains the dominant power in full control. ➡️ Iran is simply ignoring his calls for negotiations and has publicly laid out its own demands without hesitation. ➡️ Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took Trump's calls but then defied his direct order not to retaliate. ➡️ For 72 days Trump has claimed a deal with Iran is only days away yet nothing has changed. ➡️ His optimistic rhetoric has lost all connection to reality because America has lost ground as Iran has gained it. THE EMERGENCE OF THE FOURTH WORLD POWER ➡️ Pape warned months ago that Iran was on track to become the fourth center of world power as the dominant state in the Gulf. ➡️ This status means building a genuine sphere of influence where Iran protects and coordinates with allies rather than treating them as expendable. ➡️ The old view of groups like Hezbollah as mere pawns has been reversed by Iran's growing strength. ➡️ Recent Iranian actions have already forced the United States to pressure Israel to pull back. ➡️ This new position will strengthen further when the coming economic crisis hits world markets later this summer. THE MIDDLE GAME THAT LIES AHEAD ➡️ This phase of ambition and escalation will run through the summer and deep into the fall midterms. ➡️ Iran sees clear opportunities to exploit political timelines in both the United States and Israel. ➡️ A major disruption to the global economy driven by regional instability now appears almost locked in. ➡️ Hopes of wrapping the conflict up neatly by Labor Day for domestic political reasons do not match Iran's strategic thinking. THE WEAKENING OF ISRAEL ➡️ Israel's freedom of action is beginning to shrink as its main backer loses strategic ground in the region. ➡️ Iranian-backed forces are showing early signs of more coordinated and sophisticated drone and missile operations. ➡️ The recent expansion of Houthi threats against Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea marks a widening of the conflict theater. ➡️ Over time the combination of reduced American support and rising proxy capabilities will place Israel under growing pressure. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape makes the stakes unmistakable. Iran has flipped from a strategy of pure survival into one of expanding ambition and the United States has lost the control it once took for granted. This is the sound of a new center of world power rising while old assumptions fall apart. HT: YouTube Breaking Points #IranWar #FourthWorldPower #AxisOfResistance #TrumpLosingControl #MiddleGame #SecurityBelt #PapeAnalysis

Mark

15,618 views • 3 months ago

ONE BARREL OF OIL = 5 YEARS OF HUMAN LABOR - THE TRUTH THEY NEVER TAUGHT YOU Nate Hagens just delivered a mind-expanding breakdown on oil. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis dominates headlines, his clear analysis reveals the shocking reality that our entire modern civilization runs on an ancient solar battery most people never truly see. What he explains will instantly change how you view daily life and the world events unfolding right now. THE ORIGIN STORY MOST PEOPLE GET WRONG ➡️ Oil didn't come from dinosaurs. It formed from ancient marine phytoplankton that captured solar energy tens of millions of years ago. ➡️ Heat and pressure turned it into an incredibly dense liquid solar battery. ➡️ We're draining in just a few centuries what took nature millions of years to create. THE ASTONISHING POWER OF ONE BARREL ➡️ A single barrel of oil contains 1700 kilowatt hours of work potential. ➡️ It replaces approximately five years of hard human physical labor. ➡️ Combined with machines, that number can range from one to twenty years of human effort. ➡️ For around a hundred dollars you get the equivalent of five years of human sweat. THE INVISIBLE GHOST WORKFORCE ➡️ Globally we burn around 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent per year. ➡️ This equals roughly 500 billion human labor years. ➡️ That's 100 fossil-powered ghost workers for every living human on Earth. ➡️ This massive subsidy has supercharged wealth, agriculture, transportation, and consumption worldwide. LIVING BETTER THAN ANCIENT KINGS ➡️ The average American consumes energy equivalent to about 40 barrels per year. ➡️ This gives us hot water on demand, refrigeration, cars, planes, and year-round fresh food. ➡️ Most of us live with more energy services than royalty had centuries ago. ➡️ Every product, every service, every bit of GDP first requires an energy conversion. WHY YOU'VE NEVER NOTICED ➡️ We are energy blind because abundant energy has surrounded us our entire lives. ➡️ Even Nobel Prize-winning economists often overlooked energy's true contribution. ➡️ Your body needs 2000 kilocalories a day. The average American uses roughly 200,000 kilocalories daily through all the hidden systems. THE BOTTOM LINE This ancient sunlight has created the deepest subsidy in human history and enabled an explosion of wealth and population like nothing before it. But it won't be available forever at today's prices and scale. This changes how you see the current world events unfolding. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Nate Hagens #Oil101 #Reality101 #AncientSunlight #EnergyBlindness #FossilFuels #StraitOfHormuz #CivilizationFundamentals
1:56

ONE BARREL OF OIL = 5 YEARS OF HUMAN LABOR - THE TRUTH THEY NEVER TAUGHT YOU Nate Hagens just delivered a mind-expanding breakdown on oil. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis dominates headlines, his clear analysis reveals the shocking reality that our entire modern civilization runs on an ancient solar battery most people never truly see. What he explains will instantly change how you view daily life and the world events unfolding right now. THE ORIGIN STORY MOST PEOPLE GET WRONG ➡️ Oil didn't come from dinosaurs. It formed from ancient marine phytoplankton that captured solar energy tens of millions of years ago. ➡️ Heat and pressure turned it into an incredibly dense liquid solar battery. ➡️ We're draining in just a few centuries what took nature millions of years to create. THE ASTONISHING POWER OF ONE BARREL ➡️ A single barrel of oil contains 1700 kilowatt hours of work potential. ➡️ It replaces approximately five years of hard human physical labor. ➡️ Combined with machines, that number can range from one to twenty years of human effort. ➡️ For around a hundred dollars you get the equivalent of five years of human sweat. THE INVISIBLE GHOST WORKFORCE ➡️ Globally we burn around 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent per year. ➡️ This equals roughly 500 billion human labor years. ➡️ That's 100 fossil-powered ghost workers for every living human on Earth. ➡️ This massive subsidy has supercharged wealth, agriculture, transportation, and consumption worldwide. LIVING BETTER THAN ANCIENT KINGS ➡️ The average American consumes energy equivalent to about 40 barrels per year. ➡️ This gives us hot water on demand, refrigeration, cars, planes, and year-round fresh food. ➡️ Most of us live with more energy services than royalty had centuries ago. ➡️ Every product, every service, every bit of GDP first requires an energy conversion. WHY YOU'VE NEVER NOTICED ➡️ We are energy blind because abundant energy has surrounded us our entire lives. ➡️ Even Nobel Prize-winning economists often overlooked energy's true contribution. ➡️ Your body needs 2000 kilocalories a day. The average American uses roughly 200,000 kilocalories daily through all the hidden systems. THE BOTTOM LINE This ancient sunlight has created the deepest subsidy in human history and enabled an explosion of wealth and population like nothing before it. But it won't be available forever at today's prices and scale. This changes how you see the current world events unfolding. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Nate Hagens #Oil101 #Reality101 #AncientSunlight #EnergyBlindness #FossilFuels #StraitOfHormuz #CivilizationFundamentals

Mark

13,902 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸 AMERICA, YOU ARE BEING WARNED 🇺🇸 (📍 TEXAS—PAY ATTENTION BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE) We have brave Europeans risking their lives to warn us—and we’re running out of time. Norwegian journalist Rebecca Mistereggen is one of them. She sat down with RAIR Foundation and delivered a raw, terrifying truth: ➡️ Mass Islamic immigration is destroying Europe . ➡️ Women are no longer safe - Rape gangs roam cities, and police stay silent. ➡️ Free speech is gone — Criticize Islam? Get jailed, fined, or blacklisted. ➡️ Christianity is being erased—and Islam is replacing it - Churches now read the Quran on Good Friday. ➡️ Hate speech laws protect only Muslims ➡️ Dissenters are silenced, jailed - or murdered - Just ask the family of Salwan Momika. ➡️ State-funded Islamic indoctrination in schools - Children are required to learn how “beautiful” Islam is. ➡️ 12-year-olds now work as hitmen - Welcome to Sweden’s migrant-controlled streets. ➡️ “Diversity” has destroyed true diversity - Every city now looks - and feels - the same: foreign, unsafe, unfree. ➡️ Social death replaces physical jail — Speak up, and lose your job, bank account, friends, and family. ➡️ Europe no longer feels like home - Arabic is the first language heard in Oslo’s airport. ➡️ Sharia parties are being elected - Yes, elected. In the West. ➡️ The media is part of the regime - Covering up migrant violence and gaslighting native citizens. And she gave this powerful interview knowing full well that telling the truth in Europe could get her arrested - or killed. But she said it anyway. 🛑 “I’d rather die than let my country become Islamic. It’s not going to happen.” That’s not a quote from a politician. That’s a woman with everything to lose - risking her life to warn America before it’s too late. This wasn’t just a story about Europe. It was a message to us. Rebecca is a hero. She didn’t speak out because she’s safe - she spoke out because America is starting down the same path. The question is: Will we listen - while we still can?
25:47

🇺🇸 AMERICA, YOU ARE BEING WARNED 🇺🇸 (📍 TEXAS—PAY ATTENTION BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE) We have brave Europeans risking their lives to warn us—and we’re running out of time. Norwegian journalist Rebecca Mistereggen is one of them. She sat down with RAIR Foundation and delivered a raw, terrifying truth: ➡️ Mass Islamic immigration is destroying Europe . ➡️ Women are no longer safe - Rape gangs roam cities, and police stay silent. ➡️ Free speech is gone — Criticize Islam? Get jailed, fined, or blacklisted. ➡️ Christianity is being erased—and Islam is replacing it - Churches now read the Quran on Good Friday. ➡️ Hate speech laws protect only Muslims ➡️ Dissenters are silenced, jailed - or murdered - Just ask the family of Salwan Momika. ➡️ State-funded Islamic indoctrination in schools - Children are required to learn how “beautiful” Islam is. ➡️ 12-year-olds now work as hitmen - Welcome to Sweden’s migrant-controlled streets. ➡️ “Diversity” has destroyed true diversity - Every city now looks - and feels - the same: foreign, unsafe, unfree. ➡️ Social death replaces physical jail — Speak up, and lose your job, bank account, friends, and family. ➡️ Europe no longer feels like home - Arabic is the first language heard in Oslo’s airport. ➡️ Sharia parties are being elected - Yes, elected. In the West. ➡️ The media is part of the regime - Covering up migrant violence and gaslighting native citizens. And she gave this powerful interview knowing full well that telling the truth in Europe could get her arrested - or killed. But she said it anyway. 🛑 “I’d rather die than let my country become Islamic. It’s not going to happen.” That’s not a quote from a politician. That’s a woman with everything to lose - risking her life to warn America before it’s too late. This wasn’t just a story about Europe. It was a message to us. Rebecca is a hero. She didn’t speak out because she’s safe - she spoke out because America is starting down the same path. The question is: Will we listen - while we still can?

Amy Mek

175,725 views • 1 year ago

CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow
1:17

CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow

Mark

315,204 views • 4 months ago

AFRICA'S GOLD BANK JUST WENT LIVE: THE DOLLAR IS BEING CUT OUT Africa just made a quiet but seismic move. Central banks are building their own gold bank and a continent-wide payment system that deliberately bypasses the US dollar while opening a direct gold corridor straight to China. The masses still have no idea this is happening. THE AFRICAN AWAKENING ➡️ On July 20 the central banks of Egypt and Eswatini sat down to advance both PAPSS and a pan-African gold bank. ➡️ The driving force is identical to China’s: escape dollar dependence before the next sanctions hammer falls. ➡️ Russia’s frozen reserves and the deliberate dollar squeeze on Iran taught them the lesson. They are acting on it. THE PAPSS BREAKTHROUGH ➡️ Afreximbank’s Pan-African Payment and Settlement System already links banks in 28 countries. ➡️ The Central Bank of the Central African States just joined, bringing the six CFA-franc nations with it. ➡️ Transactions now clear in roughly seven seconds. Western dollar banks lose real-time visibility. ➡️ Daily settlement still runs through Afreximbank in dollars. That is exactly where gold can replace the dollar as the final settlement asset. THE GOLD BANK PLAN ➡️ On 29 December Afreximbank and the Egyptian central bank formally decided to create a pan-African gold bank. ➡️ Goal: strengthen central-bank reserves, build African refineries and trading hubs, and keep physical gold on the continent. ➡️ A gold refinery is scheduled to open in an Egyptian free-trade zone by year-end. McKinsey is writing the feasibility study right now. THE CHINA CONNECTION ➡️ China’s CIPS system has already signed partnerships with Afreximbank and other regional banks to create offshore yuan centers. ➡️ Hong Kong’s Christopher Hui is personally building gold corridors with Ghana and Laos. ➡️ A joint venture between the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and Alibaba’s AGTech is preparing a digital platform so gold can serve as collateral and tokenized payment. ➡️ The design is clear: African gold stays in African vaults under Chinese-linked oversight while settlement shifts into yuan. THE RESERVE REALITY ➡️ China imported 196 tonnes net in May and 180 tonnes in June. ➡️ Official PBOC purchases were only 10 and 15 tonnes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate the real May figure closer to 50 tonnes. ➡️ Physical gold is being pulled into a new system that the West still pretends does not exist. THE BOTTOM LINE Africa is no longer waiting for permission. It is building the rails, the vaults and the corridors that let physical gold settle trade outside the dollar. The quiet reconstruction of the monetary order is already underway. The window to understand it is still open. Most people will notice only after the door has closed. HT: Rohstoff Investor #AfricaGold #PAPSS #GoldCorridor #DeDollarization #ChinaAfrica #GoldBank #PhysicalGold
1:17

AFRICA'S GOLD BANK JUST WENT LIVE: THE DOLLAR IS BEING CUT OUT Africa just made a quiet but seismic move. Central banks are building their own gold bank and a continent-wide payment system that deliberately bypasses the US dollar while opening a direct gold corridor straight to China. The masses still have no idea this is happening. THE AFRICAN AWAKENING ➡️ On July 20 the central banks of Egypt and Eswatini sat down to advance both PAPSS and a pan-African gold bank. ➡️ The driving force is identical to China’s: escape dollar dependence before the next sanctions hammer falls. ➡️ Russia’s frozen reserves and the deliberate dollar squeeze on Iran taught them the lesson. They are acting on it. THE PAPSS BREAKTHROUGH ➡️ Afreximbank’s Pan-African Payment and Settlement System already links banks in 28 countries. ➡️ The Central Bank of the Central African States just joined, bringing the six CFA-franc nations with it. ➡️ Transactions now clear in roughly seven seconds. Western dollar banks lose real-time visibility. ➡️ Daily settlement still runs through Afreximbank in dollars. That is exactly where gold can replace the dollar as the final settlement asset. THE GOLD BANK PLAN ➡️ On 29 December Afreximbank and the Egyptian central bank formally decided to create a pan-African gold bank. ➡️ Goal: strengthen central-bank reserves, build African refineries and trading hubs, and keep physical gold on the continent. ➡️ A gold refinery is scheduled to open in an Egyptian free-trade zone by year-end. McKinsey is writing the feasibility study right now. THE CHINA CONNECTION ➡️ China’s CIPS system has already signed partnerships with Afreximbank and other regional banks to create offshore yuan centers. ➡️ Hong Kong’s Christopher Hui is personally building gold corridors with Ghana and Laos. ➡️ A joint venture between the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and Alibaba’s AGTech is preparing a digital platform so gold can serve as collateral and tokenized payment. ➡️ The design is clear: African gold stays in African vaults under Chinese-linked oversight while settlement shifts into yuan. THE RESERVE REALITY ➡️ China imported 196 tonnes net in May and 180 tonnes in June. ➡️ Official PBOC purchases were only 10 and 15 tonnes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate the real May figure closer to 50 tonnes. ➡️ Physical gold is being pulled into a new system that the West still pretends does not exist. THE BOTTOM LINE Africa is no longer waiting for permission. It is building the rails, the vaults and the corridors that let physical gold settle trade outside the dollar. The quiet reconstruction of the monetary order is already underway. The window to understand it is still open. Most people will notice only after the door has closed. HT: Rohstoff Investor #AfricaGold #PAPSS #GoldCorridor #DeDollarization #ChinaAfrica #GoldBank #PhysicalGold

Mark

129,255 views • 1 month ago

NULAND EXPOSED IN TORONTO: MEARSHEIMER REVEALS THE UKRAINE DISASTER'S TRUE CAUSE In "TheMonkDebates", John Mearsheimer delivered a masterclass in realism that left Victoria Nuland's entire narrative in ruins. While she spun tales of a defensive NATO and a power-hungry Putin with no limits, Mearsheimer laid out the cold facts: NATO expansion into Ukraine was the spark, and Western interference turned a manageable crisis into a preventable catastrophe. The audience watched a live demolition of neoconservative fantasy. THE NATO EXPANSION TRUTH BOMB ➡️ Mearsheimer reminded everyone that great powers have red lines, just as America does with the Monroe Doctrine and Cuba in 1962. ➡️ Russia warned for years that NATO in Ukraine was an existential threat. ➡️ The West ignored every signal and kept pushing eastward anyway. NULAND'S FAILED NEGOTIATIONS EXPOSED ➡️ Nuland claimed Ukraine was ready to pause NATO dreams but Putin demanded total control. ➡️ Mearsheimer countered with the real record: Putin sent negotiators to Istanbul in the first weeks because he wanted limited goals, not conquest of all Ukraine. ➡️ It was the United States and Boris Johnson who ordered Zelensky to walk away from that deal. ➡️ That single decision prolonged the slaughter and locked Ukraine into permanent destruction. THE MONSTER MYTH VS HARD REALITY ➡️ Nuland painted Putin as an unrestrained empire restorer who would never stop. ➡️ Mearsheimer showed the actual war aims were narrow: block NATO membership and protect Russia's core security interests. ➡️ Hundreds of thousands dead later, the body count proves who was right about the limits of force. THE HUMAN COST OF NULAND'S DELUSIONS ➡️ Ukraine has already lost at least one-fifth of its territory. ➡️ It now faces a future as a dysfunctional rump state bleeding people and treasure. ➡️ All of it traceable to the refusal to treat Russia like the great power it is. THE BOTTOM LINE Victoria Nuland helped architect a war that Mearsheimer accurately predicted years in advance, and her refusal to admit the role of NATO expansion has cost Ukraine everything while proving the realist case beyond any doubt. This is what happens when ideology collides with reality and reality wins. #Mearsheimer #NulandExposed #UkraineWarTruth #NATOExpansion #RealismWins #PreventableCatastrophe #StopTheLies
0:26

NULAND EXPOSED IN TORONTO: MEARSHEIMER REVEALS THE UKRAINE DISASTER'S TRUE CAUSE In "TheMonkDebates", John Mearsheimer delivered a masterclass in realism that left Victoria Nuland's entire narrative in ruins. While she spun tales of a defensive NATO and a power-hungry Putin with no limits, Mearsheimer laid out the cold facts: NATO expansion into Ukraine was the spark, and Western interference turned a manageable crisis into a preventable catastrophe. The audience watched a live demolition of neoconservative fantasy. THE NATO EXPANSION TRUTH BOMB ➡️ Mearsheimer reminded everyone that great powers have red lines, just as America does with the Monroe Doctrine and Cuba in 1962. ➡️ Russia warned for years that NATO in Ukraine was an existential threat. ➡️ The West ignored every signal and kept pushing eastward anyway. NULAND'S FAILED NEGOTIATIONS EXPOSED ➡️ Nuland claimed Ukraine was ready to pause NATO dreams but Putin demanded total control. ➡️ Mearsheimer countered with the real record: Putin sent negotiators to Istanbul in the first weeks because he wanted limited goals, not conquest of all Ukraine. ➡️ It was the United States and Boris Johnson who ordered Zelensky to walk away from that deal. ➡️ That single decision prolonged the slaughter and locked Ukraine into permanent destruction. THE MONSTER MYTH VS HARD REALITY ➡️ Nuland painted Putin as an unrestrained empire restorer who would never stop. ➡️ Mearsheimer showed the actual war aims were narrow: block NATO membership and protect Russia's core security interests. ➡️ Hundreds of thousands dead later, the body count proves who was right about the limits of force. THE HUMAN COST OF NULAND'S DELUSIONS ➡️ Ukraine has already lost at least one-fifth of its territory. ➡️ It now faces a future as a dysfunctional rump state bleeding people and treasure. ➡️ All of it traceable to the refusal to treat Russia like the great power it is. THE BOTTOM LINE Victoria Nuland helped architect a war that Mearsheimer accurately predicted years in advance, and her refusal to admit the role of NATO expansion has cost Ukraine everything while proving the realist case beyond any doubt. This is what happens when ideology collides with reality and reality wins. #Mearsheimer #NulandExposed #UkraineWarTruth #NATOExpansion #RealismWins #PreventableCatastrophe #StopTheLies

Mark

33,629 views • 4 months ago

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash
0:49

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash

Mark

73,869 views • 3 months ago

AFTER NORD STREAM, US LNG TO EUROPE BECOMES AMERICA'S SHORTAGE Matt Smith, founder and CIO of Chronometer Partners, spent 18 months modeling US energy from the well up. His conclusion is blunt: American gas looks fine in 2026 and 2027, then storage starts collapsing in 2028. A large share of the molecules already promised to Europe after Nord Stream was destroyed will not be there when the United States needs them. THE CORE FINDING ➡️ Natural gas already powers more than 40% of US electricity and is becoming the country’s most important fuel. ➡️ 2026 and 2027 still look comfortable. ➡️ From mid-2028, storage begins falling below every level in the historical record. ➡️ By 2029 it drops below all known evidence. ➡️ Smith’s line: “You’re going to start to see a knife fight to secure natural gas physical in 28 like we really haven’t seen before.” THE NORD STREAM AFTERMATH ➡️ After Nord Stream was destroyed, Europe lost its cheap Russian pipeline supply and turned to US LNG instead. ➡️ That shift was sold as security for Europe. It also locked American molecules into long-term export contracts. ➡️ Smith’s work says those same cargoes are a core reason the US system starts eating storage in 2028. ➡️ Europe bought expensive US gas after the pipeline was gone. That gas is the supply America will be missing when power prices spike. ➡️ You cannot simply call the ships back. Contracts, project finance, and allied demand stand in the way. WHY THE SQUEEZE IS LOCKED IN ➡️ LNG exports are already large and set to more than double by 2030. ➡️ AI data centers are now stacking even more gas demand on top of those exports. ➡️ There is gas in the ground. Getting it out, cleaned, and moved fast enough is the real problem. ➡️ New pipes take years. Wells decline fast. “You don’t press a button to solve this.” THE SLEEPWALK ➡️ The futures market still prices gas as if nothing changes. ➡️ Fifteen years of shale abundance created deep complacency. ➡️ “Gas has lulled everybody to sleep.” ➡️ The biggest loser is the US consumer. Electricity bills are where the pain hits first. THE BOTTOM LINE Europe replaced lost Russian pipeline gas with US LNG. America is now committed to send abroad the same fuel its own grid will need. 2026 and 2027 will still look fine. 2028 is when the fight for physical molecules begins. The gas sold to Europe after Nord Stream is the gas that will be missing at home. #NaturalGas #NordStream #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Europe #ElectricityPrices #GasShortage
2:02

AFTER NORD STREAM, US LNG TO EUROPE BECOMES AMERICA'S SHORTAGE Matt Smith, founder and CIO of Chronometer Partners, spent 18 months modeling US energy from the well up. His conclusion is blunt: American gas looks fine in 2026 and 2027, then storage starts collapsing in 2028. A large share of the molecules already promised to Europe after Nord Stream was destroyed will not be there when the United States needs them. THE CORE FINDING ➡️ Natural gas already powers more than 40% of US electricity and is becoming the country’s most important fuel. ➡️ 2026 and 2027 still look comfortable. ➡️ From mid-2028, storage begins falling below every level in the historical record. ➡️ By 2029 it drops below all known evidence. ➡️ Smith’s line: “You’re going to start to see a knife fight to secure natural gas physical in 28 like we really haven’t seen before.” THE NORD STREAM AFTERMATH ➡️ After Nord Stream was destroyed, Europe lost its cheap Russian pipeline supply and turned to US LNG instead. ➡️ That shift was sold as security for Europe. It also locked American molecules into long-term export contracts. ➡️ Smith’s work says those same cargoes are a core reason the US system starts eating storage in 2028. ➡️ Europe bought expensive US gas after the pipeline was gone. That gas is the supply America will be missing when power prices spike. ➡️ You cannot simply call the ships back. Contracts, project finance, and allied demand stand in the way. WHY THE SQUEEZE IS LOCKED IN ➡️ LNG exports are already large and set to more than double by 2030. ➡️ AI data centers are now stacking even more gas demand on top of those exports. ➡️ There is gas in the ground. Getting it out, cleaned, and moved fast enough is the real problem. ➡️ New pipes take years. Wells decline fast. “You don’t press a button to solve this.” THE SLEEPWALK ➡️ The futures market still prices gas as if nothing changes. ➡️ Fifteen years of shale abundance created deep complacency. ➡️ “Gas has lulled everybody to sleep.” ➡️ The biggest loser is the US consumer. Electricity bills are where the pain hits first. THE BOTTOM LINE Europe replaced lost Russian pipeline gas with US LNG. America is now committed to send abroad the same fuel its own grid will need. 2026 and 2027 will still look fine. 2028 is when the fight for physical molecules begins. The gas sold to Europe after Nord Stream is the gas that will be missing at home. #NaturalGas #NordStream #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Europe #ElectricityPrices #GasShortage

Mark

36,303 views • 28 days ago

FORMER CIA INSIDER REVEALS: WHY THE IRAN WAR PLAN WAS DOOMED FROM DAY ONE A longtime CIA operative who spent years working directly against the Iranian regime just delivered a sobering breakdown of the current conflict in the Persian Gulf. Sam Faddis recruited sources inside their nuclear program, the IRGC, and top leadership. He has zero illusions about the Ayatollahs yet insists the core assumption of this war was flat-out wrong. THE CORE ASSESSMENT ➡️ Sam makes it crystal clear: he worked against these monsters face to face and cheers when the regime finally collapses. ➡️ But he never believed a hard, fast strike focused on decapitation would make the theocracy crumble in days. ➡️ That Plan A has obviously failed, and now the painful question is what comes next. THE SQUARED-AWAY REALITY ➡️ The Iranians he fought are brutally efficient, highly organized, and detail-obsessed planners. ➡️ They had contingency plans on the shelf for years, constantly updated with fresh casing reports, photos, and sketches of American targets. ➡️ When the strikes hit, nobody in Tehran was shocked or broken; they immediately executed the exact responses they had rehearsed. THE OFF-RAMP DANGER ➡️ We have inflicted massive damage, yet the regime remains in power and holds the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ They may not reopen it or stop hitting Gulf infrastructure because their apocalyptic worldview tells them they win after the firestorm. ➡️ Quitting is easy for us; the real question is whether the Iranians will. THE GROUND TROOPS TRAP ➡️ Sam warns that sending Marines or the 82nd Airborne would be a catastrophic escalation. ➡️ An actual invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops and turn a bad situation into a nightmare with no exit. ➡️ Better to use naval power, blockade their oil exports, and crush them financially without boots on the ground. THE BOTTOM LINE Sam saw this coming because he actually understands the enemy. We launched this war on wishful thinking instead of cold, realistic planning. The longer we ignore that truth, the higher the price the world will pay. HT: YoutTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Michael Farris #IranWarReality #ExCIAWarning #HormuzCrisis #RegimeCollapseMyth #PlanBFailed #SquaredAwayEnemy #PersianGulfChaos
2:00

FORMER CIA INSIDER REVEALS: WHY THE IRAN WAR PLAN WAS DOOMED FROM DAY ONE A longtime CIA operative who spent years working directly against the Iranian regime just delivered a sobering breakdown of the current conflict in the Persian Gulf. Sam Faddis recruited sources inside their nuclear program, the IRGC, and top leadership. He has zero illusions about the Ayatollahs yet insists the core assumption of this war was flat-out wrong. THE CORE ASSESSMENT ➡️ Sam makes it crystal clear: he worked against these monsters face to face and cheers when the regime finally collapses. ➡️ But he never believed a hard, fast strike focused on decapitation would make the theocracy crumble in days. ➡️ That Plan A has obviously failed, and now the painful question is what comes next. THE SQUARED-AWAY REALITY ➡️ The Iranians he fought are brutally efficient, highly organized, and detail-obsessed planners. ➡️ They had contingency plans on the shelf for years, constantly updated with fresh casing reports, photos, and sketches of American targets. ➡️ When the strikes hit, nobody in Tehran was shocked or broken; they immediately executed the exact responses they had rehearsed. THE OFF-RAMP DANGER ➡️ We have inflicted massive damage, yet the regime remains in power and holds the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ They may not reopen it or stop hitting Gulf infrastructure because their apocalyptic worldview tells them they win after the firestorm. ➡️ Quitting is easy for us; the real question is whether the Iranians will. THE GROUND TROOPS TRAP ➡️ Sam warns that sending Marines or the 82nd Airborne would be a catastrophic escalation. ➡️ An actual invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops and turn a bad situation into a nightmare with no exit. ➡️ Better to use naval power, blockade their oil exports, and crush them financially without boots on the ground. THE BOTTOM LINE Sam saw this coming because he actually understands the enemy. We launched this war on wishful thinking instead of cold, realistic planning. The longer we ignore that truth, the higher the price the world will pay. HT: YoutTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Michael Farris #IranWarReality #ExCIAWarning #HormuzCrisis #RegimeCollapseMyth #PlanBFailed #SquaredAwayEnemy #PersianGulfChaos

Mark

23,679 views • 6 months ago

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply
0:44

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

Mark

20,090 views • 3 months ago

ZANDI'S $5 GAS BOMB: RECESSION IN WEEKS UNLESS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS REOPENED IMMEDIATELY Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, just dropped a bombshell assessment of where the economy stands right now. He says the next few days or weeks will decide everything as oil inventories dwindle and prices threaten to surge past the tipping point. With gas already near four dollars and fifty cents the margin for error has all but vanished and the most vulnerable households are running out of room. THE WINDOW IS CLOSING FAST ➡️ Zandi says a resolution would be nice today but realistically it must come in the next few days ➡️ If it goes on much longer inventories will keep drawing down and the strategic petroleum reserve will start to fade. ➡️ Without the strait opening or more production soon oil prices are going to jump again. ➡️ That jump to five dollars a gallon would be enough to push the tenuous economy straight into recession. THE DANGER MATH FROM SIMULATIONS ➡️ Zandi's models show it takes about one hundred twenty five dollars a barrel sustained for two or three months to reliably trigger a recession. ➡️ Today oil is closer to ninety or ninety five dollars but we are uncomfortably close to the line. ➡️ Five dollars at the pump lines up with that one twenty five a barrel threshold if the arithmetic holds. THE CONSUMER FALLOUT ➡️ The thing Zandi worries about most is lower middle income households already under a lot of pressure. ➡️ Real disposable income after inflation and taxes is actually falling on a year over year basis right now. ➡️ If gas goes over five dollars and real incomes keep declining consumers are going to pack it in and stop spending. THE NO RESCUE SCENARIO ➡️ Zandi does not see fiscal policymakers getting it together quickly enough to help. ➡️ The Federal Reserve will not come to the rescue either because inflation expectations are rising. ➡️ The Fed would rather get inflation under control even if it means a recession now to avoid a worse one later. ➡️ Zandi says "take our lumps up front" is the approach because there is really no good choice here. ➡️ Even a new Fed chair would not change the outcome as the committee stays focused on inflation over growth. THE BOTTOM LINE Mark Zandi's message is unmistakable: the economy is perched on the edge with almost no time left and absolutely no policy cavalry on the way if oil prices break higher. The warning could not be any clearer or more urgent. #ZandiWarning #OilPrices #RecessionAlert #FedPolicy #GasAtFive #ConsumerCrisis #NoRescueComing
1:33

ZANDI'S $5 GAS BOMB: RECESSION IN WEEKS UNLESS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS REOPENED IMMEDIATELY Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, just dropped a bombshell assessment of where the economy stands right now. He says the next few days or weeks will decide everything as oil inventories dwindle and prices threaten to surge past the tipping point. With gas already near four dollars and fifty cents the margin for error has all but vanished and the most vulnerable households are running out of room. THE WINDOW IS CLOSING FAST ➡️ Zandi says a resolution would be nice today but realistically it must come in the next few days ➡️ If it goes on much longer inventories will keep drawing down and the strategic petroleum reserve will start to fade. ➡️ Without the strait opening or more production soon oil prices are going to jump again. ➡️ That jump to five dollars a gallon would be enough to push the tenuous economy straight into recession. THE DANGER MATH FROM SIMULATIONS ➡️ Zandi's models show it takes about one hundred twenty five dollars a barrel sustained for two or three months to reliably trigger a recession. ➡️ Today oil is closer to ninety or ninety five dollars but we are uncomfortably close to the line. ➡️ Five dollars at the pump lines up with that one twenty five a barrel threshold if the arithmetic holds. THE CONSUMER FALLOUT ➡️ The thing Zandi worries about most is lower middle income households already under a lot of pressure. ➡️ Real disposable income after inflation and taxes is actually falling on a year over year basis right now. ➡️ If gas goes over five dollars and real incomes keep declining consumers are going to pack it in and stop spending. THE NO RESCUE SCENARIO ➡️ Zandi does not see fiscal policymakers getting it together quickly enough to help. ➡️ The Federal Reserve will not come to the rescue either because inflation expectations are rising. ➡️ The Fed would rather get inflation under control even if it means a recession now to avoid a worse one later. ➡️ Zandi says "take our lumps up front" is the approach because there is really no good choice here. ➡️ Even a new Fed chair would not change the outcome as the committee stays focused on inflation over growth. THE BOTTOM LINE Mark Zandi's message is unmistakable: the economy is perched on the edge with almost no time left and absolutely no policy cavalry on the way if oil prices break higher. The warning could not be any clearer or more urgent. #ZandiWarning #OilPrices #RecessionAlert #FedPolicy #GasAtFive #ConsumerCrisis #NoRescueComing

Mark

10,222 views • 3 months ago